The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene

Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.     

Mammal extinctions and the increasing isolation of humans on the tree of life

A sixth great mass extinction is ongoing due to the direct and indirect effects of human pressures. However, not all lineages are affected equally. From an anthropocentric perspective, it is often purported that humans hold a unique place on Earth. Here, we show that our current impacts on the natural world risk realizing that expectation. We simulated species loss on the mammalian phylogenetic tree, informed by species current extinction risks. We explored how Homo sapiens could become isolated in the tree if species currently threatened with extinction disappeared. We analyzed correlates of mammal extinctions risks that may drive this isolation pattern. We show that, within mammals, and more particularly within primates, extinction risks increase with the number of known threat types, and decrease with geographic range size. Extinctions increase with species body mass, trophic level, and the median longitudinal extent of each species range in mammals but not within primates. The risks of extinction are frequently high among H. sapiens close relatives. Pruning threatened primates, including apes (Hominidae, Hylobatidae), from the tree of life will lead to our species being among those with the fewest close relatives. If no action is taken, we will thus not only lose crucial biodiversity for the preservation of Earth ecosystems, but also a key living reference to what makes us human.     

Quantifying the Extent of North American Mammal Extinction Relative to the Pre-Anthropogenic Baseline

Earth has experienced five major extinction events in the past 450 million years. Many scientists suggest we are now witnessing a sixth, driven by human impacts. However, it has been difficult to quantify the real extent of the current extinction episode, either for a given taxonomic group at the continental scale or for the worldwide biota, largely because comparisons of pre-anthropogenic and anthropogenic biodiversity baselines have been unavailable. Here, we compute those baselines for mammals of temperate North America, using a sampling-standardized rich fossil record to reconstruct species-area relationships for a series of time slices ranging from 30 million to 500 years ago. We show that shortly after humans first arrived in North America, mammalian diversity dropped to become at least 15%–42% too low compared to the “normal” diversity baseline that had existed for millions of years. While the Holocene reduction in North American mammal diversity has long been recognized qualitatively, our results provide a quantitative measure that clarifies how significant the diversity reduction actually was. If mass extinctions are defined as loss of at least 75% of species on a global scale, our data suggest that North American mammals had already progressed one-fifth to more than halfway (depending on biogeographic province) towards that benchmark, even before industrialized society began to affect them. Data currently are not available to make similar quantitative estimates for other continents, but qualitative declines in Holocene mammal diversity are also widely recognized in South America, Eurasia, and Australia. Extending our methodology to mammals in these areas, as well as to other taxa where possible, would provide a reasonable way to assess the magnitude of global extinction, the biodiversity impact of extinctions of currently threatened species, and the efficacy of conservation efforts into the future.     

When the pond turtle followed the reindeer: effect of the last extreme global warming event on the timing of faunal change in Northern Europe

Faunal communities have been shaped in different ways by past climatic change. The impact of the termination of the last Glacial and the onset of the present (Holocene) Interglacial on large‐scale faunal shifts, extinction dynamics and gene pools of species are of special interest in natural sciences. A general pattern of climate‐triggered range expansion and local extinction of vertebrate species is known for Europe, and shows that in the modern temperate zone the main faunal change took place mainly during the Late Glacial (14 700–11 700 years ago) and Early Holocene (11 700–9 100 years ago). Based on large datasets of new radiocarbon data, we present precise temporal dynamics of climate‐driven disappearance and appearance of reindeer and pond turtle in southern Sweden. These two species are significant climate indicators in Late Quaternary biostratigraphy. Our data reveal that the reindeer disappeared from southern Sweden ca. 10 300 years ago, whereas the pond turtle colonized the area ca. 9 860 years ago, with a 450‐year gap between each species. This provides evidence for a sudden environmental turnover, causing the replacement of an arctic faunal element by a thermophilic species. The postglacial range dynamics of pond turtle and reindeer are a unique model case, allowing insights into the faunal turnover of other vertebrates during the last dramatic natural global warming event at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition.     

Causes of Ecosystem Transformation at the End of the Pleistocene: Evidence from Mammal Body-Mass Distributions

Animal body sizes reflect the discontinuous architecture of the landscapes in which they live, and consequently their body-mass distributions are distinctly clumped rather than continuous. This architectural discontinuity is generated by ecological processes that discretely operate over micro-, meso-, and macroscales. Therefore, changes in these important scale-specific processes for a given geographical region over time should be reflected by corresponding changes in faunal body-mass clump patterns. In this study, we utilized this hypothesis to investigate the terminal Pleistocene mammal extinction event. Specifically, we analyzed the body-mass distributions of latest Pleistocene and modern mammal faunas from northern Florida and southern California to determine the nature of any changes in the clump structures of these regions during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition. In both regions, despite their wide geographical separation and faunal distinctiveness, body-mass clumps below the 40-kg level were remarkably stable across the Pleistocene–Holocene transition despite suffering extinctions. Larger clumps, in contrast, were either orderly truncated or completely eliminated rather than chaotically fragmented. Based on these findings, we argue that the terminal Pleistocene mammal extinctions were caused, at least in part, by changes in key mesoscale aspects of the landscape crucial to supporting a diversity of large mammals. Received 23 April 1997; accepted 14 October 1997.     

More losers than winners: investigating Anthropocene defaunation through the diversity of population trends

The global-scale decline of animal biodiversity (‘defaunation’) represents one of the most alarming consequences of human impacts on the planet. The quantification of this extinction crisis has traditionally relied on the use of IUCN Red List conservation categories assigned to each assessed species. This approach reveals that a quarter of the world's animal species are currently threatened with extinction, and ~1% have been declared extinct. However, extinctions are preceded by progressive population declines through time that leave demographic ‘footprints’ that can alert us about the trajectories of species towards extinction. Therefore, an exclusive focus on IUCN conservation categories, without consideration of dynamic population trends, may underestimate the true extent of the processes of ongoing extinctions across nature. In fact, emerging evidence (e.g. the Living Planet Report), reveals a widespread tendency for sustained demographic declines (an average 69% decline in population abundances) of species globally. Yet, animal species are not only declining. Many species worldwide exhibit stable populations, while others are even thriving. Here, using population trend data for >71,000 animal species spanning all five groups of vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fishes) and insects, we provide a comprehensive global-scale assessment of the diversity of population trends across species undergoing not only declines, but also population stability and increases. We show a widespread global erosion of species, with 48% undergoing declines, while 49% and 3% of species currently remain stable or are increasing, respectively. Geographically, we reveal an intriguing pattern similar to that of threatened species, whereby declines tend to concentrate around tropical regions, whereas stability and increases show a tendency to expand towards temperate climates. Importantly, we find that for species currently classed by the IUCN Red List as ‘non-threatened’, 33% are declining. Critically, in contrast with previous mass extinction events, our assessment shows that the Anthropocene extinction crisis is undergoing a rapid biodiversity imbalance, with levels of declines (a symptom of extinction) greatly exceeding levels of increases (a symptom of ecological expansion and potentially of evolution) for all groups. Our study contributes a further signal indicating that global biodiversity is entering a mass extinction, with ecosystem heterogeneity and functioning, biodiversity persistence, and human well-being under increasing threat.     

Marsh rabbit mortalities tie pythons to the precipitous decline of mammals in the Everglades

To address the ongoing debate over the impact of invasive species on native terrestrial wildlife, we conducted a large-scale experiment to test the hypothesis that invasive Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) were a cause of the precipitous decline of mammals in Everglades National Park (ENP). Evidence linking pythons to mammal declines has been indirect and there are reasons to question whether pythons, or any predator, could have caused the precipitous declines seen across a range of mammalian functional groups. Experimentally manipulating marsh rabbits, we found that pythons accounted for 77% of rabbit mortalities within 11 months of their translocation to ENP and that python predation appeared to preclude the persistence of rabbit populations in ENP. On control sites, outside of the park, no rabbits were killed by pythons and 71% of attributable marsh rabbit mortalities were classified as mammal predations. Burmese pythons pose a serious threat to the faunal communities and ecological functioning of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem, which will probably spread as python populations expand their range.     

Body mass‐related changes in mammal community assembly patterns during the late Quaternary of North America

The late Quaternary of North America was marked by prominent ecological changes, including the end‐Pleistocene megafaunal extinction, the spread of human settlements and the rise of agriculture. Here we examine the mechanistic reasons for temporal changes in mammal species association and body size during this time period. Building upon the co‐occurrence results from Lyons et al. (2016) – wherein each species pair was classified as spatially aggregated, segregated or random – we examined body mass differences (BMD) between each species pair for each association type and time period (Late Pleistocene: 40 000 ¹⁴C–11 700 ¹⁴C ybp, Holocene: 11 700 ¹⁴C–50 ybp and Modern: 50–0 yr). In the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, the BMD of both aggregated and segregated species pairs was significantly smaller than the BMD of random pairs. These results are consistent with environmental filtering and competition as important drivers of community structure in both time periods. Modern assemblages showed a breakdown between BMD and co‐occurrence patterns: the average BMD of aggregated, segregated and random species pairs did not differ from each other. Collectively, these results indicate that the late Quaternary mammalian extinctions not only eliminated many large‐bodied species but were followed by a re‐organization of communities that altered patterns of species coexistence and associated differences in body size.     

Historical bird and terrestrial mammal extinction rates and causes

Aim Conservation of species is an ongoing concern. Location Worldwide. Methods We examined historical extinction rates for birds and mammals and contrasted island and continental extinctions. Australia was included as an island because of its isolation. Results Only six continental birds and three continental mammals were recorded in standard databases as going extinct since 1500 compared to 123 bird species and 58 mammal species on islands. Of the extinctions, 95% were on islands. On a per unit area basis, the extinction rate on islands was 177 times higher for mammals and 187 times higher for birds than on continents. The continental mammal extinction rate was between 0.89 and 7.4 times the background rate, whereas the island mammal extinction rate was between 82 and 702 times background. The continental bird extinction rate was between 0.69 and 5.9 times the background rate, whereas for islands it was between 98 and 844 times the background rate. Undocumented prehistoric extinctions, particularly on islands, amplify these trends. Island extinction rates are much higher than continental rates largely because of introductions of alien predators (including man) and diseases. Main conclusions Our analysis suggests that conservation strategies for birds and mammals on continents should not be based on island extinction rates and that on islands the key factor to enhance conservation is to alleviate pressures from uncontrolled hunting and predation.     

Predation selectively culls medium-sized species from island mammal faunas

Globally, elevated extinction risk in mammals is strongly associated with large body size. However, in regions where introduced predators exert strong top-down pressure on mammal populations, the selectivity of extinctions may be skewed towards species of intermediate body size, leading to a hump-shaped relationship between size and extinction risk. The existence of this kind of extinction pattern, and its link to predation, has been contentious and difficult to demonstrate. Here, we test the hypothesis of a hump-shaped body size–extinction relationship, using a database of 927 island mammal populations. We show that the size-selectivity of extinctions on many islands has exceeded that expected under null models. On islands with introduced predators, extinctions are biased towards intermediate body sizes, but this bias does not occur on islands without predators. Hence, on islands with a large-bodied mammal fauna, predators are selectively culling species from the lower end of the size distribution, and on islands with a small-bodied fauna they are culling species from the upper end. These findings suggest that it will be difficult to use predictable generalizations about extinction patterns, such as a positive body size–extinction risk association, to anticipate future species declines and plan conservation strategies accordingly.     

Analysis of factors implicated in the recent decline of Australia's mammal fauna

Aim To assess whether eight factors thought to be involved in the extinction process can explain the pattern of recent decline in Australia's mammal fauna. Location Australia. Methods We compiled the first comprehensive lists of mammal species extant at the time of European settlement in each of Australia's 76 mainland regions, and assigned a current conservation status to each species in each region to derive an index of faunal attrition. We then sought to explain the observed region‐to‐region variation in attrition (the dependent variable) by building a series of models using variables representing the eight factors. Results A strong geographically based pattern of attrition emerged, with faunal losses being greatest in arid regions and least in areas of high rainfall. The Akaike information criterion showed support for one model that explained 93% of the region‐to‐region variation in attrition. Its six variables all made independent contributions towards explaining the observed variation. Two were environmental variables, namely mean annual rainfall (a surrogate for regional productivity) and environmental change (a measure of post‐European disturbance). The other four were faunal variables, namely phylogenetic similarity, body‐weight distribution, area (as a surrogate for extent of occurrence), and proportion of species that usually shelter on the ground (rather than in rock piles, burrows or trees). Main conclusions In combination with historical evidence, the analysis provides an explicit basis for setting priorities among regions and species. It also shows that the long‐term recovery of populations of many species of Australian mammals will require introduced predator suppression as well as extensive habitat management that includes controlling feral herbivores. Specifically, habitat management should restore aspects of productivity relevant to the types of species at risk and ensure the continual availability of suitable refuges from physiological stressors.     

Co‐declining mammal–dung beetle faunas throughout the Atlantic Forest biome of South America

The millennial–scale evolutionary relationships between mammals and dung beetles have been eroded due to several drivers of contemporary biodiversity loss. Although some evidence of co‐decline has been shown for mammals and dung beetles at some Neotropical sites, a biome‐scale analysis for the entire Atlantic Forest of South America would strengthen our understanding of how relictual sets of mammal species can affect dung beetle co‐occurrences and co‐declines. We therefore collated hundreds of assemblages of both dung beetles and medium‐ to large‐bodied mammals throughout the world's longest tropical forest latitudinal gradient to examine to what extent mammal assemblages may exert a positive influence on dung beetle species composition and functional assembly, and whether this relationship is scale dependent. We also collated several climatic and other environmental variables to examine the degree to which they shape mammal–dung beetle relationships. The relationships between local mammal and dung beetle faunas were examined using regression models, variation partitioning, dissimilarity indices and ecological networks. We found a clear positive relationship between mammal and dung beetle species richness across this forest biome, indicating an ongoing process of mammal–dung beetle niche‐mediated co‐decline. We found a strong relationship between the species composition of both taxa, in which dung beetle species dissimilarity apparently track changes in mammalian dissimilarity, typically in 80% of all cases. Co‐variables such as phytomass and climatic variables also influenced mammal–dung beetle patterns of co‐decline along the Atlantic Forest. We conclude that dung beetle diversity and community assembly are shaped by the remaining co‐occurring mammal assemblages and their functional traits, and both groups were governed by environmental features. We emphasize that ecosystem‐wide effects of mammal population declines remain poorly understood both quantitatively and qualitatively, and curbing large vertebrate defaunation will ensure the persistence of co‐dependent species.     

A global review of the impacts of invasive cats on island endangered vertebrates

Cats are generalist predators that have been widely introduced to the world's ~179 000 islands. Once introduced to islands, cats prey on a variety of native species many of which lack evolved defenses against mammalian predators and can suffer severe population declines and even extinction. As islands house a disproportionate share of terrestrial biodiversity, the impacts of invasive cats on islands may have significant biodiversity impacts. Much of this threatened biodiversity can be protected by eradicating cats from islands. Information on the relative impacts of cats on different native species in different types of island ecosystems can increase the efficiency of this conservation tool. We reviewed feral cat impacts on native island vertebrates. Impacts of feral cats on vertebrates have been reported from at least 120 different islands on at least 175 vertebrates (25 reptiles, 123 birds, and 27 mammals), many of which are listed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. A meta‐analysis suggests that cat impacts were greatest on endemic species, particularly mammals and greater when non‐native prey species were also introduced. Feral cats on islands are responsible for at least 14% global bird, mammal, and reptile extinctions and are the principal threat to almost 8% of critically endangered birds, mammals, and reptiles.     

Environmental correlates of the Late Quaternary regional extinctions of large and small Palaearctic mammals

Most studies of mammal extinctions during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition explore the relative effects of climate change vs human impacts on these extinctions, but the relative importance of the different environmental factors involved remains poorly understood. Moreover, these studies are strongly biased towards megafauna, which may have been more influenced by human hunting than species of small body size. We examined the potential environmental causes of Pleistocene–Holocene mammal extinctions by linking regional environmental characteristics with the regional extinction rates of large and small mammals in 14 Palaearctic regions. We found that regional extinction rates were larger for megafauna, but extinction patterns across regions were similar for both size groups, emphasizing the importance of environmental change as an extinction factor as opposed to hunting. Still, the bias towards megafauna extinctions was larger in southern Europe and smaller in central Eurasia. The loss of suitable habitats, low macroclimatic heterogeneity within regions and an increase in precipitation were identified as the strongest predictors of regional extinction rates. Suitable habitats for many species of the Last Glacial fauna were grassland and desert, but not tundra or forest. The low‐extinction regions identified in central Eurasia are characterized by the continuous presence of grasslands and deserts until the present. In contrast, forest expansion associated with an increase in precipitation and temperature was likely the main factor causing habitat loss in the high‐extinction regions. The shift of grassland into tundra also contributed to the loss of suitable habitats in northern Eurasia. Habitat loss was more strongly related to the extinctions of megafauna than of small mammals. Ungulate species with low tolerance to deep snow were more likely to go regionally extinct. Thus, the increase in precipitation at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition may have also directly contributed to the extinctions by creating deep snow cover which decreases forage availability in winter.     

Human pressures predict species’ geographic range size better than biological traits

Geographic range size is the manifestation of complex interactions between intrinsic species traits and extrinsic environmental conditions. It is also a fundamental ecological attribute of species and a key extinction risk correlate. Past research has primarily focused on the role of biological and environmental predictors of range size, but macroecological patterns can also be distorted by human activities. Here, we analyse the role of extrinsic (biogeography, habitat state, climate, human pressure) and intrinsic (biology) variables in predicting range size of the world's terrestrial mammals. In particular, our aim is to compare the predictive ability of human pressure vs. species biology. We evaluated the ability of 19 intrinsic and extrinsic variables in predicting range size for 4867 terrestrial mammals. We repeated the analyses after excluding restricted‐range species and performed separate analyses for species in different biogeographic realms and taxonomic groups. Our model had high predictive ability and showed that climatic variables and human pressures are the most influential predictors of range size. Interestingly, human pressures predict current geographic range size better than biological traits. These findings were confirmed when repeating the analyses on large‐ranged species, individual biogeographic regions and individual taxonomic groups. Climatic and human impacts have determined the extinction of mammal species in the past and are the main factors shaping the present distribution of mammals. These factors also affect other vertebrate groups globally, and their influence on range size may be similar as well. Measuring climatic and human variables can allow to obtain approximate range size estimations for data‐deficient and newly discovered species (e.g. hundreds of mammal species worldwide). Our results support the need for a more careful consideration of the role of climate change and human impact – as opposed to species biological characteristics – in shaping species distribution ranges.     

Multitrophic diversity effects of network degradation

Predicting the functional consequences of biodiversity loss in realistic, multitrophic communities remains a challenge. No existing biodiversity–ecosystem function study to date has simultaneously incorporated information on species traits, network topology, and extinction across multiple trophic levels, while all three factors are independently understood as critical drivers of post‐extinction network structure and function. We fill this gap by comparing the functional consequences of simulated species loss both within (monotrophic) and across (bitrophic) trophic levels, in an ecological interaction network estimated from spatially explicit field data on tropical fecal detritus producer and consumers (mammals and dung beetles). We simulated trait‐ordered beetle and mammal extinction separately (monotrophic extinction) and the coextinction of beetles following mammal loss (bitrophic extinction), according to network structure. We also compared the diversity effects of bitrophic extinction models using a standard monotrophic function (the daily production or consumption of fecal detritus) and a unique bitrophic functional metric (the proportion of daily detritus production that is consumed). We found similar mono‐ and bitrophic diversity effects, regardless of which species traits were used to drive extinctions, yet divergent predictions when different measures of function were used. The inclusion of information on network structure had little apparent effect on the qualitative relationship between diversity and function. These results contribute to our growing understanding of the functional consequences of biodiversity from real systems and underscore the importance of species traits and realistic functional metrics to assessments of the ecosystem impacts of network degradation through species loss.     

Holocene mammal extinctions in the Carpathian Basin: a review

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Spatial congruence in language and species richness but not threat in the world's top linguistic hotspot

Languages share key evolutionary properties with biological species, and global-level spatial congruence in richness and threat is documented between languages and several taxonomic groups. However, there is little understanding of the functional connection between diversification or extinction in languages and species, or the relationship between linguistic and species richness across different spatial scales. New Guinea is the world''s most linguistically rich region and contains extremely high biological diversity. We demonstrate significant positive relationships between language and mammal richness in New Guinea across multiple spatial scales, revealing a likely functional relationship over scales at which infra-island diversification may occur. However, correlations are driven by spatial congruence between low levels of language and species richness. Regional biocultural richness may have showed closer congruence before New Guinea''s linguistic landscape was altered by Holocene demographic events. In contrast to global studies, we demonstrate a significant negative correlation across New Guinea between areas with high levels of threatened languages and threatened mammals, indicating that landscape-scale threats differ between these groups. Spatial resource prioritization to conserve biodiversity may not benefit threatened languages, and conservation policy must adopt a multi-faceted approach to protect biocultural diversity as a whole.     

The sixth mass coextinction: are most endangered species parasites and mutualists?

The effects of species declines and extinction on biotic interactions remain poorly understood. The loss of a species is expected to result in the loss of other species that depend on it (coextinction), leading to cascading effects across trophic levels. Such effects are likely to be most severe in mutualistic and parasitic interactions. Indeed, models suggest that coextinction may be the most common form of biodiversity loss. Paradoxically, few historical or contemporary coextinction events have actually been recorded. We review the current knowledge of coextinction by: (i) considering plausible explanations for the discrepancy between predicted and observed coextinction rates; (ii) exploring the potential consequences of coextinctions; (iii) discussing the interactions and synergies between coextinction and other drivers of species loss, particularly climate change; and (iv) suggesting the way forward for understanding the phenomenon of coextinction, which may well be the most insidious threat to global biodiversity.     

Late Holocene extinction of Puerto Rican native land mammals

West Indian land mammals have suffered the most severe extinctions of any Holocene mammal faunas. However, 'last-occurrence' dates based on radiometric or robust stratigraphic data remain unavailable for most West Indian species, making it impossible to identify factors responsible for these extinctions. Here, we present new radiometric dates from archaeological and palaeontological sites on Puerto Rico, the only Greater Antillean island to have lost all native land mammals. Although it has been suggested that these species died out earlier than other West Indian mammals, we demonstrate that Puerto Rican mammal last-occurrence dates are in close agreement with those from other Antillean islands, as several species in fact persisted for millennia following Amerindian arrival. Echimyid rodents and nesophontid 'island-shrews' were still present on Puerto Rico approximately 1000 years BP, and probably became extinct following European arrival. The large (13kg) heptaxodontid rodent Elasmodontomys obliquus also appears to have survived for over 2000 years after Amerindian colonization, suggesting that at least some large West Indian mammals became extinct in protracted pre-European 'sitzkrieg'-style events rather than 'blitzkrieg'-style overkill.