Increasing trend in the number of Southern Rockhopper Penguins (Eudyptes c. chrysocome) breeding at the Falkland Islands

The Falkland Islands currently supports one of the largest Southern Rockhopper Penguin (Eudyptes c. chrysocome) populations. Archipelago-wide censuses conducted in 2000 and 2005 revealed that the number of breeding pairs had declined by 30 % during this period. To establish whether the breeding population continued to decline, an archipelago-wide census was conducted in 2010. We report a conservative estimate of 319,163 ±SD 24,820 pairs breeding at the Falkland Islands in 2010. This represents a 51 % increase when compared with the number counted in 2005. A simple stochastic population model was developed to investigate the extent to which changes in demographic parameters between 2005 and 2010 could account for the increase in breeding pairs. The population model predicted a 38 % increase in the number of breeding pairs over a 5-year period (289,431 ±SD 24,615). The increase in the number of breeding pairs was therefore probably attributed to improved vital rates in the period between the 2005 and 2010 archipelago-wide censuses in combination with other factors such as a reduction in the proportion of adult birds that abstained from breeding. Based on the 2010 Falkland Islands estimate, the global population of the subspecies E. c. chrysocome is now closer to 870,000 breeding pairs of which the Falkland Islands accounts for approximately 36 %, the second largest proportion after Chile. We conclude that despite fluctuations, the number of Southern Rockhopper Penguins breeding at the Falkland Islands has increased over the last 15 years and suggest that the ‘Vulnerable’ conservation status of the species be re-assessed.     

Responses of a rice–wheat rotation agroecosystem to experimental warming

Climate change is likely to affect agroecosystems in many ways. This study was performed to investigate how a rice–winter wheat rotation agroecosystem in southeast China would respond to global warming. By using an infrared heater system, the soil surface temperature was maintained about 1.5 °C above ambient milieu over 3 years. In the third growing season (2009–2010), the evapotranspiration (ET) rate, crop production, soil respiration, and soil carbon pool were monitored. The ET rate was 23 % higher in the warmed plot as compared to the control plot during the rice paddy growing season, and the rice grain yield was 16.3 % lower, but there was no significant difference in these parameters between the plots during the winter wheat-growing season. The phenology of the winter wheat shifted under experimental warming, and ET may decrease late in the winter wheat-growing season. Experimental warming significantly enhanced soil respiration, with mean annual soil respiration rates of 2.57 ± 0.17 and 1.96 ± 0.06 μmol CO₂ m^?2 s^?1 observed in the warmed and control plots, respectively. After 3 years of warming, a significant decrease in the total organic carbon was observed, but only in the surface soil (0–5 cm). Warming also stimulated the belowground biomass, which may have compensated for any heat-induced loss of soil organic carbon. Paddy rice seemed to be more vulnerable to warming than winter wheat in terms of water-use efficiency and grain production.     

An emperor penguin population estimate: the first global, synoptic survey of a species from space

Our aim was to estimate the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes fosteri) using a single synoptic survey. We examined the whole continental coastline of Antarctica using a combination of medium resolution and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery to identify emperor penguin colony locations. Where colonies were identified, VHR imagery was obtained in the 2009 breeding season. The remotely-sensed images were then analysed using a supervised classification method to separate penguins from snow, shadow and guano. Actual counts of penguins from eleven ground truthing sites were used to convert these classified areas into numbers of penguins using a robust regression algorithm.We found four new colonies and confirmed the location of three previously suspected sites giving a total number of emperor penguin breeding colonies of 46. We estimated the breeding population of emperor penguins at each colony during 2009 and provide a population estimate of ~238,000 breeding pairs (compared with the last previously published count of 135,000-175,000 pairs). Based on published values of the relationship between breeders and non-breeders, this translates to a total population of ~595,000 adult birds.There is a growing consensus in the literature that global and regional emperor penguin populations will be affected by changing climate, a driver thought to be critical to their future survival. However, a complete understanding is severely limited by the lack of detailed knowledge about much of their ecology, and importantly a poor understanding of their total breeding population. To address the second of these issues, our work now provides a comprehensive estimate of the total breeding population that can be used in future population models and will provide a baseline for long-term research.     

The long engagement of the emperor penguin

In birds, courtship is generally short relative to the whole breeding cycle. Emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), however, are an exception as their courtship period is much longer (ca. 6 weeks) than the courtship of other penguin species. This strategy may appear surprising, as it is especially costly to fast and endure drastic climatic conditions for long periods at the colony (1.5 and up to 4 months for females and males, respectively). We examined here the reasons of this extended courtship period and found that emperor penguins returned earlier to the colony when primary oceanic production before breeding was high. This suggests that emperor penguins return to the colony as soon as primary oceanic production in summer allows them to replenish their body reserves. The extended period of time spent at the colony during courtship may therefore result from an evolutionary process that confers advantages to emperor penguins that arrive earlier at the colony by reducing predation risks and offering better chances of securing a partner.     

First recorded loss of an emperor penguin colony in the recent period of Antarctic regional warming: implications for other colonies

In 1948, a small colony of emperor penguins Aptenodytes forsteri was discovered breeding on Emperor Island (67° 51' 52″ S, 68° 42' 20″ W), in the Dion Islands, close to the West Antarctic Peninsula (Stonehouse 1952). When discovered, the colony comprised approximately 150 breeding pairs; these numbers were maintained until 1970, after which time the colony showed a continuous decline. By 1999 there were fewer than 20 pairs, and in 2009 high-resolution aerial photography revealed no remaining trace of the colony. Here we relate the decline and loss of the Emperor Island colony to a well-documented rise in local mean annual air temperature and coincident decline in seasonal sea ice duration. The loss of this colony provides empirical support for recent studies (Barbraud & Weimerskirch 2001; Jenouvrier et al 2005, 2009; Ainley et al 2010; Barber-Meyer et al 2005) that have highlighted the vulnerability of emperor penguins to changes in sea ice duration and distribution. These studies suggest that continued climate change is likely to impact upon future breeding success and colony viability for this species. Furthermore, a recent circumpolar study by Fretwell & Trathan (2009) highlighted those Antarctic coastal regions where colonies appear most vulnerable to such changes. Here we examine which other colonies might be at risk, discussing various ecological factors, some previously unexplored, that may also contribute to future declines. The implications of this are important for future modelling work and for understanding which colonies actually are most vulnerable.     

First direct, site-wide penguin survey at Deception Island, Antarctica, suggests significant declines in breeding chinstrap penguins

Deception Island (62°57′S, 60°38′W) is one of the most frequently visited locations in Antarctica, prompting speculation that tourism may have a negative impact on the island’s breeding chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarctica). Discussions regarding appropriate management of Deception Island and its largest penguin colony at Baily Head have thus far operated in the absence of concrete information regarding the current size of the penguin population at Deception Island or long-term changes in abundance. In the first ever field census of individual penguin nests at Deception Island (December 2–14, 2011), we find 79,849 breeding pairs of chinstrap penguins, including 50,408 breeding pairs at Baily Head and 19,177 breeding pairs at Vapour Col. Our field census, combined with a simulation designed to capture uncertainty in an earlier population estimate by Shuford and Spear (Br Antarct Surv Bull 81:19–30, 1988), suggests a significant (>50?%) decline in the abundance of chinstraps breeding at Baily Head since 1986/1987. A comparative analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery for the 2002/2003 and the 2009/2010 seasons suggests a 39?% (95th percentile CI?=?6–71?%) decline (from 85,473?±?23,352 to 52,372?±?14,309 breeding pairs) over that 7-year period and provides independent confirmation of population decline in the abundance of breeding chinstrap penguins at Baily Head. The decline in chinstrap penguins at Baily Head is consistent with declines in this species throughout the region, including sites that receive little or no tourism; as a consequence of regional environmental changes that currently represent the dominant influence on penguin dynamics, we cannot ascribe any direct link between chinstrap declines and tourism from this study.     

Sea ice affects the population dynamics of Adélie penguins in Terre Adélie

Overall Adélie penguin population size in Pointe Géologie Archipelago increased between 1984 and 2003 at a rate of 1.77% per year, and averaged 33,726±5,867 pairs. As predicted by the optimum model proposed by Smith et al. (Bioscience 49:393–404, 1999). Adélie penguin population size increased when sea ice extent and concentration (SIE and SIC) decreased six years earlier, indicating that the conditions around reproduction or first years at sea, were determinant. The breeding success averaged 85.2±35.45% and was not related to environmental variables. Adult survival probability varied between years from 0.64 to 0.82. Southern oscillation index (SOI) had a strong negative effect on adult annual survival. Adult survival of Adélie penguins increased during warmer events, especially during winter and spring at the beginning of reproduction. Therefore, we speculate that the rapid decreases in 1988–1991 and 1996 of the breeding population size were related to a decrease in adult mortality. However, adult survival varied little, and could not explain the strong increasing population trend. The sea ice conditions during breeding or during the first year at sea appeared determinant and influenced the population dynamics through cohort effects, probably related to the availability of productive feeding habitats.     

Population size and trends of southern giant petrels (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Macronectes giganteus</Emphasis>) nesting at Signy Island,South Orkney Islands

The southern giant petrel (Macronectes giganteus) has a circumpolar distribution and breeds on subantarctic islands and a few continental Antarctic sites. Although this species has recently been down-listed to “Least Concern” by the World Conservation Union (IUCN), there are strong fluctuations in abundance and variable long-term trends recorded at different sites. Systematic, long-term monitoring is essential to determine drivers underlying its population dynamics. Here, we examine long-term changes in population size and productivity of southern giant petrels at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands. Comparing estimated numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island in 2000/2001, 2005/2006, 2009/2010 and 2014/2015 with historical data revealed several phases of population change: a 64 % decline (6.2 % per annum) from 1968/1969 to 1984/1985, a 162 % increase (6.2 % per annum) to 2000/2001, stability until 2005/2006, a 56 % decline (18.3 % per annum) to 2009/2010 and stability until 2014/2015. This represents a 1.8 % decline per annum between 1968/1969 and 2014/2015. Annual counts within focal study areas suggested a more rapid increase from 1996/1997 to 2006/2007, but the same downward trend from 2006/2007 to present, underlining potential pitfalls in inferring trends from part-island counts. There was also a 20 % decline in breeding success from 1996/1997 to 2014/2015. Our results indicate substantial fluctuations in southern giant petrel abundance at Signy Island over 4–5 decades and a recent decline in breeding numbers and success. As the southern giant petrels breeding at the South Orkney Islands represents ~5–10 % of the global population, continuation of these declines would be of high conservation concern.     

Annual variation in reproductive parameters of Adélie penguins at Edmonson Point,Victoria Land,Antarctica

Annual egg and chick production and breeding success at the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony Edmonson Point (74°21′S–165°10′E), Victoria Land, is presented for eight breeding seasons between 1995 and 2005. During this period the colony consisted of 10–13 subcolonies and averaged 2098 ± 278 breeding pairs. A sample of over 100 nests (114–150), belonging to two subcolonies, was monitored each year. Some breeding parameters remained constant while others showed substantial annual variation. Laying date showed little variation, and laying was highly synchronous: 82.5% of clutches were initiated in a 10-day period, 9–18 November. In contrast, clutch size (1.77–1.97) and incubation period (34.4 ± 2.5) varied significantly. Variation among years was also recorded in hatching success (from 58 to 86%) and breeding success. This last parameter, measured as number of chicks reared to crèche per nest with eggs, varied between 0.34 and 0.97.     

Seasonal survival estimation for a long-distance migratory bird and the influence of winter precipitation

Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of annual, oversummer, overwinter, and migratory survival for adult male Kirtland’s warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii), an endangered, long-distance migratory songbird. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to analyze two mark–recapture datasets: 2006–2011 on Michigan breeding grounds, and 2003–2010 on Bahamian wintering grounds. The mean annual survival probability was 0.58 ± 0.12 SE. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer and winter stationary periods were relatively high (0.963 ± 0.005 SE and 0.977 ± 0.002 SE, respectively). Monthly survival probability during migratory periods was substantially lower (0.879 ± 0.05 SE), accounting for ~44% of all annual mortality. March rainfall in the Bahamas was the best-supported predictor of annual survival probability and was positively correlated with apparent annual survival in the subsequent year, suggesting that the effects of winter precipitation carried over to influence survival probability of individuals in later seasons. Projection modeling revealed that a decrease in Bahamas March rainfall >12.4% from its current mean could result in negative population growth in this species. Collectively, our results suggest that increased drought during the non-breeding season, which is predicted to occur under multiple climate change scenarios, could have important consequences on the annual survival and population growth rate of Kirtland’s warbler and other Neotropical–Nearctic migratory bird species.     

Dramatic increase in the Zembretta Yelkouan shearwater breeding population following ship rat eradication spurs interest in managing a 1500-year old invasion

The ship rat (Rattus rattus) was introduced 1,500 years ago to the Zembra Archipelago (Tunisia) and was eradicated in October–November 2009 on two of its islands, Zembretta and Zembrettina. This eradication was performed 2 years after the discovery of a small colony of Yelkouan shearwaters (Puffinus yelkouan), a species recently up-listed to the vulnerable IUCN extinction risk category. For 2 years before and 3 years after rat eradication, the Zembretta Yelkouan shearwater breeding colony was checked yearly at the end of the breeding season. The number of recorded breeding pairs reaching 176 and 145, respectively, increases of 10.4 and 8.5-fold two and 3 years after rat eradication. This experiment shows that eradication of an ancient introduced ship rat population has dramatically improved the Zembretta Yelkouan shearwater breeding population very quickly. This result suggests that managing even long-introduced populations might well be fruitful.     

Population trends in a substantial colony of Little Penguins: three independent measures over three decades

Estimating long-term population trends is vital for the conservation and management of species, yet few trends exist and fewer still are verified with independent measures. We compared three independent measures of change in population size over 27 years (1984–2011) for a significant Little Penguin Eudyptula minor colony in south-eastern Australia: (1) a series of 13 colony-wide surveys conducted in eight separate years, (2) mean nightly counts of penguins returning to breeding sites (365 counts × 27 years) and (3) population growth rates from a demographic model based on survival and recruitment rates measured at three sites each year. Colony-wide surveys of burrows were used as a benchmark of change in population size in the 8 years they were conducted as they were a robust measure of population size corrected for intra-annual variation in burrow occupancy using mark-recapture modelling at six reference sites. However, the demographic model matched the trend from colony-wide surveys with greater resolution in years and with less effort. Beach counts were unreliable for monitoring trends for the entire population due to its singular and peripheral location in the colony. Trends indicate a doubling of the population from 1984 to 2011 despite a marked population contraction linked to a mass mortality of a key prey species. The colony appears secure but remains subject to changes in the marine and terrestrial environments in the longer term.     

Review of historical population information of emperor penguins

In 1902, the first breeding colony of emperor penguins was discovered. Over the following decades, the number of known emperor penguin colonies increased steadily and new ones are still being discovered. However, rigorous census work has been carried out at only a few colonies and accurate information on trends in breeding populations is limited to a small number of locations. Thus, the total number of breeding pairs is still unknown as is the size of the global population (breeders, non-breeders, juveniles). The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) lists the species’ status as ‘least concern’ and states that although the population trend for emperor penguins has not been quantified, the global population appears to be stable. This review summarises the currently available information on the populations of emperor penguins at known colonies in terms of survey methods, count units used and survey frequency. It examines what is known about the state of various colonies and demonstrates that currently available data are inadequate for a trend assessment of the global population.     

Dispersal and recruitment during population growth in a colonial bird, the great cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis

While the factors influencing reproduction and survival in colonial populations are relatively well studied, factors involved in dispersal and settlement decisions are not well understood. The present study investigated exchanges of great cormorants Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis among six breeding colonies over a 13‐year period when the breeding population in Denmark increased from 2800 to 36 400 nests. We used a multistate capture‐recapture model that combined multisite resightings and recoveries to examine simultaneously recruitment, natal dispersal, breeding dispersal and annual survival of first‐year, immature and breeding great cormorants. Mean survival of first‐year birds (0.50±0.09, range=0.42–0.66 among colonies) was lower than survival of breeders (0.90±0.06, range=0.81–0.97). Mean survival of immature birds over the study period was 0.87±0.08. Dispersal from a colony increased with decreasing mean brood size in the colony in both first‐time and experienced breeders. The choice of the settlement colony in first‐time breeders was affected by conditions in the natal colony and in the colonies prospected during the pre‐breeding years. In particular, first‐time breeders recruited to colonies where they could expect better breeding success. Experienced breeders relied mainly on cues present early in the season and on their own breeding experience to choose a new breeding colony. Newly established colonies resulted mainly from the immigration of first‐time breeders originating from denser colonies. Dispersal was distance‐dependent and first‐time breeders dispersed longer distances than breeders. We suggest that the prospecting behaviour allows first‐time breeders to recruit in nearby as well as more distant potential breeding colonies. Dispersing breeders preferred to settle in neighbouring colonies likely to benefit from their experience with foraging areas. We discuss the importance of these movements for growth and expansion of the breeding population.     

Age‐specific survival and recruitment of piping plovers Charadrius melodus in the Great Lakes region

Juvenile survival and age at first breeding (i.e. recruitment) are critical parameters affecting population dynamics in birds, but high levels of natal dispersal preclude measurement of these variables in most species. We used multi‐state capture–recapture models to measure age‐specific survival and recruitment probabilities of piping plovers Charadrius melodus in the Great Lakes region during 1993–2012. This federally endangered population is thoroughly monitored throughout its entire breeding range, minimizing concerns that measures of survival and recruitment are confounded by temporary or permanent emigration. First‐year survival (± SE) averaged 0.284 ± 0.019 from mean banding age (9 d) and 0.374 ± 0.023 from fledging age (23 d). Factors that increased first‐year survival during the pre‐fledging period (9–23 d) included earlier hatching dates, older age at banding, greater number of fledglings at a given site, and better body condition at time of banding. However, when chicks that died prior to fledging were excluded from analysis, only earlier hatching dates improved first‐year survival estimates. Females had a higher probability (0.557 ± 0.066) of initiating breeding at age one than did males (0.353 ± 0.052), but virtually all plovers began breeding by age three. Adult survival was reduced by increased hurricane activity on the southeast U.S. Atlantic coast where Great Lakes piping plovers winter and by higher populations of merlins Falco columbarius. Mean annual adult survival declined from 1993 to 2012, and did not differ between males and females. Enhanced body condition led to higher survival to fledge and early breeding led to improved first‐year survival; therefore, management actions focused on ensuring access to quality feeding habitat for growing young and protecting early nests may increase recruitment in this federally endangered population.     

Reproductive characteristics of female Bengal tigers,in Ranthambhore Tiger Reserve,India

Reproductive characteristics of tigers (Panthera tigris) are important to understand population viability. We studied the reproductive parameters of female Bengal tigers (P. t. tigris) in a dry, tropical, deciduous habitat in Ranthambhore Tiger Reserve (RTR), western India, from April 2005 to March 2010. We monitored tigers by direct observation and with cameras placed throughout their habitat. The potential breeding population included 13 adult females. The average age at first reproduction was 3.3 years; 34 cubs were born during the study period (6.2?±?0.82 per year). Sixty-six percent of the births occurred between October and December. Mean litter size was 2.26?±?0.52 (n?=?13, range?=?1–3). The sex ratio of 32 cubs was 1.29 M:1.00 F. The survival rate of cubs (<12 months) was 85 % (95 % CI?=?0.68–0.94), whereas that of juveniles (12–24 months), and subadults (24–36 months) was 79 % (95 % CI?=?0.61–0.91). All breeding females were >3 years old. Only 2 of the 13 females reproduced twice during the 5 years of the study. The birth interval was 33.4?±?3.7 months (range 24–65 months). The mean reproductive rate was 0.59?±?0.23 cubs/female/year. Our study indicates that tiger populations can grow rapidly if the habitat provides adequate protection, an adequate population of prey, and minimal to no poaching.     

Development of a set of genomic microsatellite markers in tea (Camellia L.) (Camelliaceae)

Tea (Camellia L.) is the world’s most consumed health drink and is also important economically. Due to its self-incompatible and outcrossing nature, tea is composed of highly heterogeneous germplasm. It is a perennial, slow-growing crop and hence the successful release of new improved cultivars following conventional breeding methods takes years. In this context, a DNA marker-based molecular breeding approach holds great promise in accelerating genetic improvement programs in tea. Here we describe the isolation of a set of highly polymorphic genomic microsatellite markers using the enrichment approach, which may be useful for phylogenetic and marker-assisted breeding programs in tea. The enriched library comprising 3,205 clones was screened for the presence of microsatellites using a three-primer-based colony PCR method. Four hundred positive clones were selected and sequenced, to reveal 153 sequences containing simple sequence repeats. Seventy-eight primer pairs were designed from repeat-positive sequences, out of which 40 primer pairs produced successful amplifications. Twenty-two of these primer pairs, when tested on a panel of 21 diverse tea clones and accessions, were found to be highly polymorphic, resulting in 137 alleles with an average of 6.76 alleles per primer pair. The polymorphic information content (PIC), expected heterozygosity (H _e) and observed heterozygosity (H _o) of the polymorphic markers ranged from 0.1 to 0.9, 0.1–0.9 and 0.0–0.8, with average values of 0.6 ± 0.18, 0.7 ± 0.17 and 0.5 ± 0.22, respectively. These markers can be applied for various diversity analyses, mapping programs and genotyping of tea crop.     

Population trends of Rooks Corvus frugilegus in Spain and the importance of refuse tips

Anthropogenic food from refuse tips can affect population dynamics in birds, especially gulls, but the evidence is mostly circumstantial. We combine analyses of long-term population data and natural experiments to show a positive effect of refuse tips on the growth of the Spanish breeding population of Rooks Corvus frugilegus . In this isolated population of around 2000 breeding pairs, monitored since 1976, birds in colonies less than 10 km from tips fed largely on refuse, particularly during periods of lowest natural food availability. Three lines of evidence support the hypothesis that the supply of refuse influenced breeding numbers, suggesting that this population is limited by food: 1) between 1976 and 2003, the two population nuclei that had access to tips increased 2.1 and 3.7 times more than that without a tip nearby; 2) annual colony growth between 1996 and 2003 was strongly correlated with the availability of tips when other potentially important variables were taken into account; 3) the number of breeding pairs in refuse-foraging colonies declined rapidly after the closure of the local tip and recovered only when a supply of refuse was restored. The effect of tips on colony growth was stronger when the availability of natural foraging habitat around the colonies was low, suggesting that anthropogenic food acts as a buffer against shortage of natural food. Artificial food supplementation may be an effective tool to increase the breeding population of target species, especially those facing a reduction of their foraging habitats. The potential effects on bird species of Directive 1999/31/CE, which is enforcing a massive closure of tips in Europe, are discussed.     

Population genetic and behavioural variation of the two remaining colonies of Providence petrel (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pterodroma solandri</Emphasis>)

Knowledge of the dispersal capacity of species is crucial to assess their extinction risk, and to establish appropriate monitoring and management strategies. The Providence petrel (Pterodroma solandri) presently breeds only at Lord Howe Island (~32,000 breeding pairs) and Phillip Island-7 km south of Norfolk Island (~20 breeding pairs). A much larger colony previously existed on Norfolk Island (~1,000,000 breeding pairs) but was hunted to extinction in the 18th Century. Differences in time of return to nesting sites are presently observed between the two extant colonies. Information on whether the Phillip Island colony is a relict population from Norfolk Island, or a recent colonization from Lord Howe Island, is essential to assess long-term sustainability and conservation significance of this small colony. Here, we sequenced the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and 14 nuclear introns, in addition to genotyping 10 microsatellite loci, to investigate connectivity of the two extant P. solandri populations. High gene flow between populations and recent colonization of Phillip Island (95 % HPD 56–200 ya) are inferred, which may delay or prevent the genetic differentiation of these insular populations. These results suggest high plasticity in behaviour in this species and imply limited genetic risks surrounding both the sustainability of the small Phillip Island colony, and a proposal for translocation of Lord Howe Island individuals to re-establish a colony on Norfolk Island.     

The decline and rise of the Kransberg Cape Vulture colony over 35 years has implications for composite population indices and survey frequency

Long-term monitoring is key for detecting population declines. Composite indices allow researchers to combine trends from disparate monitoring programmes into a single estimate of population change. Inferences from composite indices, however, are limited to the time periods and areas studied. We show that the number of breeding pairs in a colony of Cape Vultures Gyps coprotheres in South Africa declined between the years 1983 and 2003 but increased in both the number of breeding pairs and fledglings per pair from 2004 to 2017. We performed a retrospective power analysis determining the minimum annual frequency with which the colony could have been monitored without sacrificing inference into population trends. This power analysis revealed the post-2003 population increase would not have been apparent if we skipped more than 2 years between surveys. We incorporated our estimates into a previously published composite index for Cape Vultures that considered only data collected pre-2000 and demonstrate that the inference is unchanged if the trend from the decline period or the entire study is incorporated, yet if only the trend during the period of population increase is used, there is no longer a statistically significant decline across the species’ range. Our results demonstrate the utility of long-term monitoring because if our study had concluded before 2003, there would be little evidence of the current population increase at Kransberg.