Effective population size of a population with stochastically varying size

For a Wright–Fisher model with mutation whose population size fluctuates stochastically from generation to generation, a heterozygosity effective population size is defined by means of the equilibrium average heterozygosity of the population. It is shown that this effective population size is equal to the harmonic mean of population size if and only if the stochastic changes of population size are uncorrelated. The effective population size is larger (resp. smaller) than the harmonic mean when the stochastic changes of population size are positively (resp. negatively) autocorrelated. These results and those obtained so far for other stochastic models with fluctuating population size suggest that the property that effective population sizes are always larger than the harmonic mean under the fluctuation of population size holds only for continuous time models such as diffusion and coalescent models, whereas effective population sizes can be equal to or smaller than the harmonic mean for discrete time models.     

Extinction risk of a density-dependent population estimated from a time series of population size

Environmental threats, such as habitat size reduction or environmental pollution, may not cause immediate extinction of a population but shorten the expected time to extinction. We develop a method to estimate the mean time to extinction for a density-dependent population with environmental fluctuation. We first derive a formula for a stochastic differential equation model (canonical model) of a population with logistic growth with environmental and demographic stochasticities. We then study an approximate maximum likelihood (AML) estimate of three parameters (intrinsic growth rate r, carrying capacity K, and environmental stochasticity sigma(2)(e)) from a time series of population size. The AML estimate of r has a significant bias, but by adopting the Monte Carlo method, we can remove the bias very effectively (bias-corrected estimate). We can also determine the confidence interval of the parameter based on the Monte Carlo method. If the length of the time series is moderately long (with 40-50 data points), parameter estimation with the Monte Carlo sampling bias correction has a relatively small variance. However, if the time series is short (less than or equal to 10 data points), the estimate has a large variance and is not reliable. If we know the intrinsic growth rate r, however, the estimate of K and sigma(2)(e)and the mean extinction time T are reliable even if only a short time series is available. We illustrate the method using data for a freshwater fish, Japanese crucian carp (Carassius auratus subsp.) in Lake Biwa, in which the growth rate and environmental noise of crucian carp are estimated using fishery records.     

Ecology of a marineRivularia population

An account is given of the environmental chemistry and physiological ecology of a population ofRivularia atra growing in the upper eulittoral of Tyne Sands, a sheltered bay in S-E. Scotland. Large masses of detached seaweed tend to be deposited in the supralittoral of this bay and their decay leads to elevated levels of dissolved phosphate (typically 50–150 μg 1⁻¹ P) in the water of shallow pools of the upper eulittoral. Much (usually 50%) of this phosphate is organic, as opposed to phosphate in the open sea just outside the bay, where it is almost entirely inorganic. This organic phosphate is presumably available to theRivularia, as colonies show marked alkaline phosphatase activity. The colonies are small (mostly <1 mm diameter), but with a high nitrogenase activity (expressed per unit chlorophyll) in the light are high (sometimes approaching 0.2 nM C₂H₄ μg chl a⁻¹ min⁻¹ × 10⁻³) but there is a rapid and very marked drop on transfer to the dark. It is suggested that this latter feature may be of adaptive significance for this population, as colonies in many pools are covered intermittently by sand.     

Stabilization of the population of a parasite on fruit by the population of a cleptoparasite

When there exist two species such that one is a parasite on fruit and the other exploits the parasitized fruits, they must compete for a limited resource with each other. The relation between Dacus cucurbitae and Atherigona orientalis is an example of such a situation. We raise a question whether the population of a parasite on fruit can be stabilized by the existence of the cleptoparasite of the parasite on fruit. The changes in their population densities are represented as a differential equation with time delayed parameters, which is deduced from the context of life histories of the two species. An index representing degree of overlapping of generations (g) is defined as an average oviposition period devided by the average preoviposition period, and the value is assumed to be the same in the two species. The stability of the system is classified by three parameters: the reproductive rate of the parasite on fruits (R), the survival probability of it through competition against the cleptoparasite (p), and the generation overlapping index (g). For small values of g, e.g. less than some 0.5, the stability is determined mainly by a product of Rp: the values larger than 1 result in no equilibrium and infinite increase of both species, the values near 0 lead to large amplitude oscillations, and the intermediate values make stable equilibria or regular small oscillations. As g takes the larger values, the stability region in the space (p, R) occupies the larger area. The model presented here is well adjusted to the fluctuating pattern of the population of D. cucurbitae on Okinawa Is., and would also be applied to analysis of both hyperparasitisms and inquilin.     

Characterization of gout in a skeletal population sample: Presumptive diagnosis in a micronesian population

Characterization of the nature and skeletal distribution of gout was accomplished in a Chamoru (Chamorros) population with predilection to the disease. Uniform excavation by the gouty diathesis produces a punched-out appearance to these predominantly monarticular lesions. The lesion is distinct from that seen in rheumatoid arthritis, spondyloarthropathy, or infection. Reactive new bone formation in some gouty lesions also has an apparently unique, ivory-like discoloration (contrasted with the adjacent bone), which facilitates diagnosis. © 1995 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

Mark-recapture analysis of a known population

Problems involved with demonstrating mark-recapture techniques in ecology classes are discussed. An exercise which overcomes most of these difficulties using a known, restricted population of people is described. Jolly-Seber estimates of the size of this population varied in precision and accuracy with method and intensity of sampling, more or less as predicted. The assumptions inherent in the use of this model were met fairly closely. As the Jolly-Seber analysis indicated little dilution of or loss from the population, a more restricted estimating procedure (Schnabel) was also attempted, yielding slight gain in accuracy and precision. Suggestions for further improvements and refinements of this exercise are made.     

Breeding population size of a fragmented population of a Costa Rican dry forest tree species.

Pollen immigration can offset the effects of genetic drift and inbreeding in small populations. To understand the genetic consequences of forest fragmentation, estimates of pollen flow into remnant fragments are essential. Such estimates are straightforward for plants with singly sired, multiseeded fruits, since the pollen donor genotype for each fruit can be unambiguously reconstructed through full-sib genealogical analyses. Allozyme analyses were used to estimate pollen donor numbers from the progeny of fruits of the tropical dry forest tree Enterolobium cyclocarpum in a small (9.8 ha) fragmented population (N = 11) over three reproductive seasons (1994, 1995, and 1996). These analyses indicate that each tree receives pollen from many pollen donors. When data are pooled for the site, estimated maximum pollen donor pool sizes in all years exceed the number of individuals (56) in the 227 ha study area. Although unidentified pollen donors may be located as close as 250 m to the study trees, the number of unidentified pollen donors indicates that individuals in this forest fragment are part of a large network of reproductively active individuals.     

Heterogeneity of a Pseudomonas bacteriophage population

Twenty-five isolates of virulent bacteriophages for Pseudomonas belonging to the morphological group C (Bradley, 1967) were obtained from different natural habitats. The phages of each isolate were found to differ from one another in at least one of the following characteristics: the sensitivity to an osmotic shock, to heating at 60 degrees C and to UV; the ability to cause lysis of 86 Pseudomonas strains; the reaction of neutralisation with antisera. At the same time, the phages were related by the existence of common antigens. These properties are responsible for the genetic stability of the bacteriophages in their complicated relationship with their host, Pseudomonas bacteria.     

The effective population size of an age-structured population with a sex-linked locus

Let a population have the same age distribution and age-specific sex ratios at times 0, 1, 2,..., and let M, F, and L, respectively, be the numbers of males and females in the youngest age group and the generation interval. It can then be shown that if there is a sex-linked locus the fixation probabilities of a neutral allele are respectively 1/3LM or 1/3LF if the allele first appears in one newborn male or in one newborn female. The effective population size can then be derived. It is the same as for a population with discrete generations having the same means, variances, and covariances of male and female progeny during a lifetime and the same number of individuals entering the population per generation.     

The population ecology of a natural population of the pierid butterfly Colias alexandra

Summary Key factor analysis techniques were used to examine factors determining the abundance of a population of non-pest Colias. The number of individuals entering each successive life stage in the sample population are summarized in life tables for 1975 to 1979. Survivorship to the adult is a relatively consistent proportionality (-x=1.2%, S.D.=1.14; 1975–1979). Factors resulting in reduced natality and, less importantly, mortality during larval diapause determine the population trends for C. alexandra. Egg mortality, pre-diapause larval mortality and postdiapause mortality contribute little to these trends. Possible key sources contributing to reduced natality are examined. Mortality of adults (including removal by collectors), poor weather conditions during the oviposition period, unseasonal snow or drought which affect nectar sources or oviposition sites are among the factors which cause reduced natality and result in population depression.     

Performance and feeding behavior of Ceratitis capitata: comparison of a wild population and a laboratory population

Experiments were carried out to test the performance and some aspects of feeding behavior in two populations of Ceratitis capitata (a population reared in the laboratory for 16 years, i.e., approximately 160 generations, and a wild one obtained from infested coffee, Coffea arabica grains). Two types of food were used in the experiment: an artificial yeast diet used for laboratory rearing and papaya (Carica papaya), a natural host of the fly. The performance parameters tested were percent emergence, time to emergence, adult female size, and egg production during the pre-oviposition phase (first five days of adult life). The behavioral aspects tested were food preference by newly hatched larvae, induction, estimated ingestion of the two diets, whether the larvae placed on one diet stayed there or moved to the other diet, and acceptance of food for oviposition. The results indicated that the performance of the wild population was superior when the flies fed on papaya, whereas the performance of the laboratory population was similar with the two diets; the wild population showed a strong preference for papaya in all choice experiments, whereas the laboratory population showed no diet preference; the females of the wild population only oviposited on pieces of papaya that had not been peeled, and did not oviposit in the artificial diet; the females of the laboratory population oviposited indiscriminately on unpeeled and peeled papaya and on the artificial diet.     

Evolutionary transition to complex population dynamic patterns in a two-age population

An evolutionary model of density-dependent selection in a two-age population is considered. The model is studied analytically and numerically; the parametric regions of its various dynamic behaviors are determined. An example is used to analyze how an evolutionary increase in the mean fitness results in a more complex population dynamics in a structured population.     

Within-host population dynamics and the evolution of microparasites in a heterogeneous host population

Abstract Why do parasites harm their hosts? The general understanding is that if the transmission rate and virulence of a parasite are linked, then the parasite must harm its host to maximize its transmission. The exact nature of such trade‐offs remains largely unclear, but for vertebrate hosts it probably involves interactions between a microparasite and the host immune system. Previous results have suggested that in a homogeneous host population in the absence of super‐ or coinfection, within‐host dynamics lead to selection of the parasite with an intermediate growth rate that is just being controlled by the immune system before it kills the host (Antia et al. 1994). In this paper, we examine how this result changes when heterogeneity is introduced to the host population. We incorporate the simplest form of heterogeneity–random heterogeneity in the parameters describing the size of the initial parasite inoculum, the immune response of the host, and the lethal density at which the parasite kills the host. We find that the general conclusion of the previous model holds: parasites evolve some intermediate growth rate. However, in contrast with the generally accepted view, we find that virulence (measured by the case mortality or the rate of parasite‐induced host mortality) increases with heterogeneity. Finally, we link the within‐host and between‐host dynamics of parasites. We show how the parameters for epidemiological spread of the disease can be estimated from the within‐host dynamics, and in doing so examine the way in which trade‐offs between these epidemiological parameters arise as a consequence of the interaction of the parasite and the immune response of the host.