California Porcini: Three New Taxa,Observations on Their Harvest,and the Tragedy of No Commons<Superscript>1</Superscript>

California Porcini: Three New Taxa, Observations on their Harvest, and the Tragedy of No Commons. Seven species of California porcini (Boletus, sect. Boletus) are recognized, including three new taxa that are culturally and economically significant: B. rex-veris sp. nov., B. regineus sp. nov., and B. edulis var. grandedulis var. nov. The three new taxa have been intensively gathered during the last century by Italian immigrants, and B. rex-veris sp. nov. more recently by southeast Asian immigrants as well as by long-time rural residents. B. rex-veris sp. nov. is restricted to inland mountains while the other two are widely distributed, and are abundant in California’s heavily populated coastal zone. In the 1990s, reflecting the preservationist policies of mainstream environmental organizations, many park authorities and land management agencies in coastal California closed public lands to mushroom gathering. Organized attempts to establish legal, limited gathering in a few parks were almost entirely unsuccessful. The result is that it is illegal to pick porcini on nearly all public lands over a 6,000-square-mile area, even though they grow prolifically in coastal California. Many of coastal California’s porcini are picked anyway by those willing to risk being apprehended and fined. In response to the official intolerance for mushroom gathering, an entire generation of mushroom hunters has grown up practicing the activity in secret.     

A Winter Distribution Model for Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a Conservation Tool for a Threatened Migratory Songbird

Conservation planning and implementation require identifying pertinent habitats and locations where protection and management may improve viability of targeted species. The winter range of Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a threatened Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird, is restricted to the Greater Antilles. We analyzed winter records from the mid-1970s to 2009 to quantitatively evaluate winter distribution and habitat selection. Additionally, we conducted targeted surveys in Jamaica (n = 433), Cuba (n = 363), Dominican Republic (n = 1,000), Haiti (n = 131) and Puerto Rico (n = 242) yielding 179 sites with thrush presence. We modeled Bicknell’s Thrush winter habitat selection and distribution in the Greater Antilles in Maxent version 3.3.1. using environmental predictors represented in 30 arc second study area rasters. These included nine landform, land cover and climatic variables that were thought a priori to have potentially high predictive power. We used the average training gain from ten model runs to select the best subset of predictors. Total winter precipitation, aspect and land cover, particularly broadleaf forests, emerged as important variables. A five-variable model that contained land cover, winter precipitation, aspect, slope, and elevation was the most parsimonious and not significantly different than the models with more variables. We used the best fitting model to depict potential winter habitat. Using the 10 percentile threshold (>0.25), we estimated winter habitat to cover 33,170 km², nearly 10% of the study area. The Dominican Republic contained half of all potential habitat (51%), followed by Cuba (15.1%), Jamaica (13.5%), Haiti (10.6%), and Puerto Rico (9.9%). Nearly one-third of the range was found to be in protected areas. By providing the first detailed predictive map of Bicknell’s Thrush winter distribution, our study provides a useful tool to prioritize and direct conservation planning for this and other wet, broadleaf forest specialists in the Greater Antilles.     

Association of E/E′ and NT-proBNP with Renal Function in Patients with Essential Hypertension

Objectives

To evaluate the association of left ventricular (LV) diastolic function and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with renal function in essential hypertension.

Methods

LV diastolic function was estimated by the ratio of early diastolic velocities (E) from transmitral inflow to early diastolic velocities (E′) of tissue Doppler at mitral annulus (septal corner); NT-proBNP was measured in 207 hypertensive patients (mean age 56±14 years). The subjects were classified into 3 groups: E/E′≤10 group (n = 48), 10<E/E′≤15 group (n = 109) and E/E′>15 group (n = 50). The renal function was estimated by glomerular filtration rate (GFR) with ^99mTc-DTPA. GFR from 30 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m² was defined as Stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD). GFR was also estimated using the modified MDRD equation. Albuminuria was defined by urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR).

Results

GFR was lower and UACR was higher in E/E′ >15 group than in 10< E/E′ ≤15 group or E/E′ ≤10 group (p<0.0001), GFR was significantly negative and UACR was positive correlated with E/E′ and NT-proBNP (p<0.0001). In multivariate stepwise linear analysis, GFR had significant correlation with age (p = 0.001), gender (p = 0.003), E/E′ (p = 0.03), lgNT-proBNP (p = 0.001) and lgUACR (p = 0.01), while eGFR had no significant correlation with E/E′ or lgNT-proBNP. Multivariate logistic regression analysis, adjusted for potential confounding factors, showed that participants in E/E′>15 group were more likely to have Stage 3 CKD compared with those in E/E′≤10 group with an adjusted odds ratio of 8.31 (p = 0.0036).

Conclusions

LV diastolic function, assessed with E/E′ and NT-proBNP is associated with renal function in essential hypertension.     

A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion

A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km²) and could result in half of the world’s biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth’s at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature.     

A Multi-Criteria Index for Ecological Evaluation of Tropical Agriculture in Southeastern Mexico

The aim of this study was to generate an easy to use index to evaluate the ecological state of agricultural land from a sustainability perspective. We selected environmental indicators, such as the use of organic soil amendments (green manure) versus chemical fertilizers, plant biodiversity (including crop associations), variables which characterize soil conservation of conventional agricultural systems, pesticide use, method and frequency of tillage. We monitored the ecological state of 52 agricultural plots to test the performance of the index. The variables were hierarchically aggregated with simple mathematical algorithms, if-then rules, and rule-based fuzzy models, yielding the final multi-criteria index with values from 0 (worst) to 1 (best conditions). We validated the model through independent evaluation by experts, and we obtained a linear regression with an r² = 0.61 (p = 2.4e-06, d.f. = 49) between index output and the experts’ evaluation.     

Association between Obesity and Cardiometabolic Health Risk in Asian-Canadian Sub-Groups

Objectives

To quantify and compare the association between the World Health Organizations’ Asian-specific trigger points for public health action [‘increased risk’: body mass index (BMI) ≥23 kg/m², and; ‘high risk’: BMI ≥27.5 kg/m²] with self-reported cardiovascular-related conditions in Asian-Canadian sub-groups.

Methods

Six cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2001–2009) were pooled to examine BMI and health in Asian sub-groups (South Asians, Chinese, Filipino, Southeast Asians, Arabs, West Asians, Japanese and Korean; N = 18 794 participants, ages 18–64 y). Multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for demographic, lifestyle characteristics and acculturation measures, was used to estimate the odds of cardiovascular-related health (high blood pressure, heart disease, diabetes, ‘at least one cardiometabolic condition’) outcomes across all eight Asian sub-groups.

Results

Compared to South Asians (OR = 1.00), Filipinos had higher odds of having ‘at least one cardiometabolic condition’ (OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.04–1.62), whereas Chinese (0.63, 0.474–0.9) and Arab-Canadians had lower odds (0.38, 0.28–0.51). In ethnic-specific analyses (with ‘acceptable’ risk weight as the referent), ‘increased’ and ‘high’ risk weight categories were the most highly associated with ‘at least one cardiometabolic condition’ in Chinese (‘increased’: 3.6, 2.34–5.63; ‘high’: 8.9, 3.6–22.01). Compared to normal weight South Asians, being in the ‘high’ risk weight category in all but the Southeast Asian, Arab, and Japanese ethnic groups was associated with approximately 3-times the likelihood of having ‘at least one cardiometabolic condition’.

Conclusion

Differences in the association between obesity and cardiometabolic health risks were seen among Asian sub-groups in Canada. The use of WHO’s lowered Asian-specific BMI cut-offs identified obesity-related risks in South Asian, Filipino and Chinese sub-groups that would have been masked by traditional BMI categories. These findings have implications for public health messaging, especially for ethnic groups at higher odds of obesity-related health risks.     

Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species

Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km² study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5–30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and ‘increased grazing’ (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the ‘reduced grazing’ scenario were nonlinear. ‘Scenario-led’ landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.     

Ethnic Differences in Prevalence of General Obesity and Abdominal Obesity among Low-Income Rural Kazakh and Uyghur Adults in Far Western China and Implications in Preventive Public Health

Background

The global pandemic of obesity has become a disastrous public health issue that needs urgent attention. Previous studies have concentrated in high-income urban settings and few cover low-income rural settings especially nomadic residents in mountain areas. This study focused on low-income rural and nomadic minority people residing in China’s far west and investigated their prevalence and ethnic differences of obesity.

Methods

A questionnaire-based survey and physical examination of 8,036 individuals were conducted during 2009–2010, using stratified cluster random sampling method in nomadic Kazakhs and rural Uyghur residents (≥18 years old) in 18 villages, Xinjiang, China, about 4,407 km away from capital Beijing. Obesity was defined by BMI and WC.

Results

The overall prevalence of general and abdominal obesity in Kazakh adults were 18.3% and 60.0%, respectively and in Uyghur, 7.6% and 54.5%, respectively. Female’s prevalence of obesity was higher than male’s for general obesity (45–54 age group in Uyghur, P = 0.041) and abdominal obesity (≥55 years in Kazakhs, P_55∼ = 0.010, P_65∼ =0.001; and ≥18 years in Uyghurs, P<0.001). Kazakh’s prevalence of obesity was higher than Uyghur’s (general obesity: ≥35 years, P<0.001; abdominal obesity: ≥25 years in males and ≥65 years in females, P<0.01). The prevalence of obesity increased after 18 years old and subsequently decreased after 55 years old. Meat consumption, older age, and female gender had a higher risk of obesity in these two minorities.

Conclusions

Both general and abdominal obesity were common in rural ethnic Kazakhs and Uyghurs. The prevalence rates were different in these two minorities depending on ethnicity, gender, and age. Kazakhs, females and elderly people may be prioritized in prevention of obesity in western China. Because of cost-effectiveness in measuring BMI and WC, we recommend that BMI and WC be integrated into local preventive policies in public health toward screening obesity and related diseases in low-income rural minorities.     

The Impact of Land Abandonment on Species Richness and Abundance in the Mediterranean Basin: A Meta-Analysis

Land abandonment is common in the Mediterranean Basin, a global biodiversity hotspot, but little is known about its impacts on biodiversity. To upscale existing case-study insights to the Pan-Mediterranean level, we conducted a meta-analysis of the effects of land abandonment on plant and animal species richness and abundance in agroforestry, arable land, pastures, and permanent crops of the Mediterranean Basin. In particular, we investigated (1) which taxonomic groups (arthropods, birds, lichen, vascular plants) are more affected by land abandonment; (2) at which spatial and temporal scales the effect of land abandonment on species richness and abundance is pronounced; (3) whether previous land use and current protected area status affect the magnitude of changes in the number and abundance of species; and (4) how prevailing landforms and climate modify the impacts of land abandonment. After identifying 1240 potential studies, 154 cases from 51 studies that offered comparisons of species richness and abundance and had results relevant to our four areas of investigation were selected for meta-analysis. Results are that land abandonment showed slightly increased (effect size  = 0.2109, P<0.0001) plant and animal species richness and abundance overall, though results were heterogeneous, with differences in effect size between taxa, spatial-temporal scales, land uses, landforms, and climate. In conclusion, there is no “one-size-fits-all” conservation approach that applies to the diverse contexts of land abandonment in the Mediterranean Basin. Instead, conservation policies should strive to increase awareness of this heterogeneity and the potential trade-offs after abandonment. The strong role of factors at the farm and landscape scales that was revealed by the analysis indicates that purposeful management at these scales can have a powerful impact on biodiversity.     

Using Seabird Habitat Modeling to Inform Marine Spatial Planning in Central California’s National Marine Sanctuaries

Understanding seabird habitat preferences is critical to future wildlife conservation and threat mitigation in California. The objective of this study was to investigate drivers of seabird habitat selection within the Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries to identify areas for targeted conservation planning. We used seabird abundance data collected by the Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies Program (ACCESS) from 2004–2011. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to model species abundance and distribution as a function of near surface ocean water properties, distances to geographic features and oceanographic climate indices to identify patterns in foraging habitat selection. We evaluated seasonal, inter-annual and species-specific variability of at-sea distributions for the five most abundant seabirds nesting on the Farallon Islands: western gull (Larus occidentalis), common murre (Uria aalge), Cassin’s auklet (Ptychorampus aleuticus), rhinoceros auklet (Cerorhinca monocerata) and Brandt’s cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatus). The waters in the vicinity of Cordell Bank and the continental shelf east of the Farallon Islands emerged as persistent and highly selected foraging areas across all species. Further, we conducted a spatial prioritization exercise to optimize seabird conservation areas with and without considering impacts of current human activities. We explored three conservation scenarios where 10, 30 and 50 percent of highly selected, species-specific foraging areas would be conserved. We compared and contrasted results in relation to existing marine protected areas (MPAs) and the future alternative energy footprint identified by the California Ocean Uses Atlas. Our results show that the majority of highly selected seabird habitat lies outside of state MPAs where threats from shipping, oil spills, and offshore energy development remain. This analysis accentuates the need for innovative marine spatial planning efforts and provides a foundation on which to build more comprehensive zoning and management in California’s National Marine Sanctuaries.     

Associations between Family-Related Factors,Breakfast Consumption and BMI among 10- to 12-Year-Old European Children: The Cross-Sectional ENERGY-Study

Objective

To investigate associations of family-related factors with children’s breakfast consumption and BMI-z-score and to examine whether children’s breakfast consumption mediates associations between family-related factors and children’s BMI-z-score.

Subjects

Ten- to twelve-year-old children (n = 6374; mean age = 11.6±0.7 years, 53.2% girls, mean BMI-z-score = 0.4±1.2) and one of their parents (n = 6374; mean age = 41.4±5.3 years, 82.7% female, mean BMI = 24.5±4.2 kg/m²) were recruited from schools in eight European countries (Belgium, Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands, Norway, Slovenia, Spain, and Switzerland). The children self-reported their breakfast frequency per week. The body weight and height of the children were objectively measured. The parents responded to items on family factors related to breakfast (automaticity, availability, encouragement, paying attention, permissiveness, negotiating, communicating health beliefs, parental self-efficacy to address children’s nagging, praising, and family breakfast frequency). Mediation analyses were performed using multi-level regression analyses (child-school-country).

Results

Three of the eleven family-related variables were significantly associated with children’s BMI-z-score. The family breakfast frequency was negatively associated with the BMI-z-score; permissiveness concerning skipping breakfast and negotiating about breakfast were positively associated with the BMI-z-score. Children’s breakfast consumption was found to be a mediator of the two associations. All family-related variables except for negotiating, praising and communicating health beliefs, were significantly associated with children’s breakfast consumption.

Conclusions

Future breakfast promotion and obesity prevention interventions should focus on family-related factors including the physical home environment and parenting practices. Nevertheless, more longitudinal research and intervention studies to support these findings between family-related factors and both children’s breakfast consumption and BMI-z-score are needed.     

Implicit and Explicit Anti-Fat Bias among a Large Sample of Medical Doctors by BMI,Race/Ethnicity and Gender

Overweight patients report weight discrimination in health care settings and subsequent avoidance of routine preventive health care. The purpose of this study was to examine implicit and explicit attitudes about weight among a large group of medical doctors (MDs) to determine the pervasiveness of negative attitudes about weight among MDs. Test-takers voluntarily accessed a public Web site, known as Project Implicit®, and opted to complete the Weight Implicit Association Test (IAT) (N = 359,261). A sub-sample identified their highest level of education as MD (N = 2,284). Among the MDs, 55% were female, 78% reported their race as white, and 62% had a normal range BMI. This large sample of test-takers showed strong implicit anti-fat bias (Cohen’s d = 1.0). MDs, on average, also showed strong implicit anti-fat bias (Cohen’s d = 0.93). All test-takers and the MD sub-sample reported a strong preference for thin people rather than fat people or a strong explicit anti-fat bias. We conclude that strong implicit and explicit anti-fat bias is as pervasive among MDs as it is among the general public. An important area for future research is to investigate the association between providers’ implicit and explicit attitudes about weight, patient reports of weight discrimination in health care, and quality of care delivered to overweight patients.     

Reconciling Oil Palm Expansion and Climate Change Mitigation in Kalimantan,Indonesia

Our society faces the pressing challenge of increasing agricultural production while minimizing negative consequences on ecosystems and the global climate. Indonesia, which has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation while doubling production of several major agricultural commodities, exemplifies this challenge. Here we focus on palm oil, the world’s most abundant vegetable oil and a commodity that has contributed significantly to Indonesia’s economy. Most oil palm expansion in the country has occurred at the expense of forests, resulting in significant GHG emissions. We examine the extent to which land management policies can resolve the apparently conflicting goals of oil palm expansion and GHG mitigation in Kalimantan, a major oil palm growing region of Indonesia. Using a logistic regression model to predict the locations of new oil palm between 2010 and 2020 we evaluate the impacts of six alternative policy scenarios on future emissions. We estimate net emissions of 128.4–211.4 MtCO₂ yr^-1 under business as usual expansion of oil palm plantations. The impact of diverting new plantations to low carbon stock land depends on the design of the policy. We estimate that emissions can be reduced by 9-10% by extending the current moratorium on new concessions in primary forests and peat lands, 35% by limiting expansion on all peat and forestlands, 46% by limiting expansion to areas with moderate carbon stocks, and 55–60% by limiting expansion to areas with low carbon stocks. Our results suggest that these policies would reduce oil palm profits only moderately but would vary greatly in terms of cost-effectiveness of emissions reductions. We conclude that a carefully designed and implemented oil palm expansion plan can contribute significantly towards Indonesia’s national emissions mitigation goal, while allowing oil palm area to double.     

Comparison and Relative Utility of Inequality Measurements: As Applied to Scotland’s Child Dental Health

This study compared and assessed the utility of tests of inequality on a series of very large population caries datasets. National cross-sectional caries datasets for Scotland’s 5-year-olds in 1993/94 (n = 5,078); 1995/96 (n = 6,240); 1997/98 (n = 6,584); 1999/00 (n = 6,781); 2002/03 (n = 9,747); 2003/04 (n = 10,956); 2005/06 (n = 10,945) and 2007/08 (n = 12,067) were obtained. Outcomes were based on the d₃mft metric (i.e. the number of decayed, missing and filled teeth). An area-based deprivation category (DepCat) measured the subjects’ socioeconomic status (SES). Simple absolute and relative inequality, Odds Ratios and the Significant Caries Index (SIC) as advocated by the World Health Organization were calculated. The measures of complex inequality applied to data were: the Slope Index of Inequality (absolute) and a variety of relative inequality tests i.e. Gini coefficient; Relative Index of Inequality; concentration curve; Koolman & Doorslaer’s transformed Concentration Index; Receiver Operator Curve and Population Attributable Risk (PAR). Additional tests used were plots of SIC deciles (SIC¹⁰) and a Scottish Caries Inequality Metric (SCIM¹⁰). Over the period, mean d₃mft improved from 3.1(95%CI 3.0–3.2) to 1.9(95%CI 1.8–1.9) and d₃mft = 0% from 41.1(95%CI 39.8–42.3) to 58.3(95%CI 57.8–59.7). Absolute simple and complex inequality decreased. Relative simple and complex inequality remained comparatively stable. Our results support the use of the SII and RII to measure complex absolute and relative SES inequalities alongside additional tests of complex relative inequality such as PAR and Koolman and Doorslaer’s transformed CI. The latter two have clear interpretations which may influence policy makers. Specialised dental metrics (i.e. SIC, SIC¹⁰ and SCIM¹⁰) permit the exploration of other important inequalities not determined by SES, and could be applied to many other types of disease where ranking of morbidity is possible e.g. obesity. More generally, the approaches described may be applied to study patterns of health inequality affecting worldwide populations.     

Conservation Efforts May Increase Malaria Burden in the Brazilian Amazon

Background

Large-scale forest conservation projects are underway in the Brazilian Amazon but little is known regarding their public health impact. Current literature emphasizes how land clearing increases malaria incidence, leading to the conclusion that forest conservation decreases malaria burden. Yet, there is also evidence that proximity to forest fringes increases malaria incidence, which implies the opposite relationship between forest conservation and malaria. We compare the effect of these environmental factors on malaria and explore its implications.

Methods and Findings

Using a large malaria dataset (∼1,300,000 positive malaria tests collected over ∼4.5 million km²), satellite imagery, permutation tests, and hierarchical Bayesian regressions, we show that greater forest cover (as a proxy for proximity to forest fringes) tends to be associated with higher malaria incidence, and that forest cover effect was 25 times greater than the land clearing effect, the often cited culprit of malaria in the region. These findings have important implications for land use/land cover (LULC) policies in the region. We find that cities close to protected areas (PA’s) tend to have higher malaria incidence than cities far from PA’s. Using future LULC scenarios, we show that avoiding 10% of deforestation through better governance might result in an average 2-fold increase in malaria incidence by 2050 in urban health posts.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that cost analysis of reduced carbon emissions from conservation efforts in the region should account for increased malaria morbidity, and that conservation initiatives should consider adopting malaria mitigation strategies. Coordinated actions from disparate science fields, government ministries, and global initiatives (e.g., Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation; Millenium Development Goals; Roll Back Malaria; and Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria), will be required to decrease malaria toll in the region while preserving these important ecosystems.     

Hand-Rearing,Release and Survival of African Penguin Chicks Abandoned Before Independence by Moulting Parents

The African penguin Spheniscus demersus has an ‘Endangered’ conservation status and a decreasing population. Following abandonment, 841 African penguin chicks in 2006 and 481 in 2007 were admitted to SANCCOB (Southern African Foundation for the Conservation of Coastal Birds) for hand-rearing from colonies in the Western Cape, South Africa, after large numbers of breeding adults commenced moult with chicks still in the nest. Of those admitted, 91% and 73% respectively were released into the wild. There were veterinary concerns about avian malaria, airsacculitis and pneumonia, feather-loss and pododermatitis (bumblefoot). Post-release juvenile (0.32, s.e.  = 0.08) and adult (0.76, s.e.  = 0.10) survival rates were similar to African penguin chicks reared after oil spills and to recent survival rates recorded for naturally-reared birds. By December 2012, 12 birds had bred, six at their colony of origin, and the apparent recruitment rate was 0.11 (s.e.  = 0.03). Hand-rearing of abandoned penguin chicks is recommended as a conservation tool to limit mortality and to bolster the population at specific colonies. The feasibility of conservation translocations for the creation of new colonies for this species using hand-reared chicks warrants investigation. Any such programme would be predicated on adequate disease surveillance programmes established to minimise the risk of disease introduction to wild birds.     

Diastolic Dysfunction Is an Independent Predictor of Cardiovascular Events in Incident Dialysis Patients with Preserved Systolic Function

Background

Diastolic heart failure (HF), the prevalence of which is gradually increasing, is associated with cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality in the general population and, more specifically, in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, the impact of diastolic dysfunction on CV outcomes has not been studied in incident dialysis patients with preserved systolic function.

Methods

This prospective observational cohort study investigates the clinical consequence of diastolic dysfunction and the predictive power of diastolic echocardiographic parameters for CV events in 194 incident ESRD patients with normal or near normal systolic function, who started dialysis between July 2008 and August 2012.

Results

During a mean follow-up duration of 27.2 months, 57 patients (29.4%) experienced CV events. Compared to the CV event-free group, patients with CV events had a significantly higher left ventricular (LV) mass index, ratio of early mitral flow velocity (E) to early mitral annulus velocity (E’) (E/E’), LA volume index (LAVI), deceleration time, and right ventricular systolic pressure, and a significantly lower LV ejection fraction and E’. In multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis, E/E’>15 and LAVI>32 mL/m² significantly predicted CV events (E/E’>15: hazard ratio [HR] = 5.40, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.73–10.70, P< .001; LAVI>32 mL/m²: HR = 5.56, 95% CI = 2.28–13.59, P< .001]. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that patients with both E/E’>15 and LAVI>32mL/m² had the worst CV outcomes.

Conclusion

An increase in E/E’ or LAVI is a significant risk factor for CV events in incident dialysis patients with preserved LV systolic function.     

Population Differentiation and Hybridisation of Australian Snubfin (Orcaella heinsohni) and Indo-Pacific Humpback (Sousa chinensis) Dolphins in North-Western Australia

Little is known about the Australian snubfin (Orcaella heinsohni) and Indo-Pacific humpback (Sousa chinensis) dolphins (‘snubfin’ and ‘humpback dolphins’, hereafter) of north-western Australia. While both species are listed as ‘near threatened’ by the IUCN, data deficiencies are impeding rigorous assessment of their conservation status across Australia. Understanding the genetic structure of populations, including levels of gene flow among populations, is important for the assessment of conservation status and the effective management of a species. Using nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers, we assessed population genetic diversity and differentiation between snubfin dolphins from Cygnet (n = 32) and Roebuck Bays (n = 25), and humpback dolphins from the Dampier Archipelago (n = 19) and the North West Cape (n = 18). All sampling locations were separated by geographic distances >200 km. For each species, we found significant genetic differentiation between sampling locations based on 12 (for snubfin dolphins) and 13 (for humpback dolphins) microsatellite loci (F _ST = 0.05–0.09; P<0.001) and a 422 bp sequence of the mitochondrial control region (F _ST = 0.50–0.70; P<0.001). The estimated proportion of migrants in a population ranged from 0.01 (95% CI 0.00–0.06) to 0.13 (0.03–0.24). These are the first estimates of genetic diversity and differentiation for snubfin and humpback dolphins in Western Australia, providing valuable information towards the assessment of their conservation status in this rapidly developing region. Our results suggest that north-western Australian snubfin and humpback dolphins may exist as metapopulations of small, largely isolated population fragments, and should be managed accordingly. Management plans should seek to maintain effective population size and gene flow. Additionally, while interactions of a socio-sexual nature between these two species have been observed previously, here we provide strong evidence for the first documented case of hybridisation between a female snubfin dolphin and a male humpback dolphin.     

The Outcome of Prophylactic Intravenous Cefazolin and Ceftriaxone in Cirrhotic Patients at Different Clinical Stages of Disease after Endoscopic Interventions for Acute Variceal Hemorrhage

Antibiotic prophylaxis with norfloxacin, intravenous ciprofloxacin, or ceftriaxone has been recommended for cirrhotic patients with gastrointestinal hemorrhage but little is known about intravenous cefazolin. This study aimed to compare the outcome of intravenous cefazolin and ceftriaxone as prophylactic antibiotics among cirrhotic patients at different clinical stages, and to identify the associated risk factors. The medical records of 713 patients with acute variceal bleeding who had received endoscopic procedures from were reviewed. Three hundred and eleven patients were entered for age-matched adjustment after strict exclusion criteria. After the adjustment, a total of 102 patients were enrolled and sorted into 2 groups according to the severity of cirrhosis: group A (Child’s A patients, n = 51) and group B (Child’s B and C patients, n = 51). The outcomes were prevention of infection, time of rebleeding, and death. Our subgroup analysis results failed to show a significant difference in infection prevention between patients who received prophylactic cefazolin and those who received ceftriaxone among Child’s A patients (93.1% vs. 90.9%, p = 0.641); however, a trend of significance in favor of ceftriaxone prophylaxis (77.8% vs. 87.5%, p = 0.072) was seen among Child’s B and C patients. More rebleeding cases were observed in patients who received cefazolin than in those who received ceftriaxone among Child’s B and C patients (66.7% vs. 25.0%, p = 0.011) but not in Child’s A patients (32% vs. 40.9%, p = 0.376). The risk factors associated with rebleeding were history of bleeding and use of prophylactic cefazolin among Child’s B and C patients. In conclusion, this study suggests that prophylactic intravenous cefazolin may not be inferior to ceftriaxone in preventing infections and reducing rebleeding among Child’s A cirrhotic patients after endoscopic interventions for acute variceal bleeding. Prophylactic intravenous ceftriaxone yields better outcome among Child’s B and C patients.     

Land Use Changes and GHG Emissions from Tropical Forest Conversion by Oil Palm Plantations in Riau Province,Indonesia

Increasing prices and demand for biofuel and cooking oil from importer countries have caused a remarkable expansion of oil palm plantations in Indonesia. In this paper, we attempt to monitor the expansion of oil palm plantations on peat land and in tropical forests. We measure the GHG emissions from the land conversion activities at provincial scale. Using Landsat images from three different periods (1990s, 2000s and 2012), we classified LULC of the Riau Province, which is the largest oil palm producing region in Indonesia. A hybrid method of integration, generated by combining automatic processing and manual analysis, yields the best results. We found that the tropical rainforest cover decreased from ∼63% in the 1990s to ∼37% in the 2000s. By 2012, the remaining tropical rainforest cover was only ∼22%. From the 1990s to the 2000s, conversion of forests and peat lands was the primary source of emissions, total CO₂ emitted to the atmosphere was estimated at ∼26.6 million tCO₂.y^-1, with 40.62% and 59.38% of the emissions from conversion of peat lands and forests, respectively. Between 2000 and 2012, the total CO₂ emitted to the atmosphere was estimated at ∼5.2 million tCO₂. y^-1, with 69.94% and 27.62% of the emissions from converted peat lands and converted forests, respectively. The results show that in the Riau Province, the oil palm industry boomed in the period from 1990 to 2000, with transformation of tropical forest and peat land as the primary source of emissions. The decrease of CO₂ emissions in the period from 2000 to 2012 is possibly due to the enforcement of a moratorium on deforestation.