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1.
The finless porpoise Neophocaena asiaeorientalis inhabits coastal waters and rivers in East Asia and is exposed to various human activities. This species is listed on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species due to a reduction in abundance. Although human-induced mortality can be a threat to porpoise populations, future anthropogenic impacts have not been quantitatively evaluated due to lack of demographic information. Adequate future population projections are needed to form the basis for conservation measures before the population declines to critical levels. We conducted a population viability analysis for the population of finless porpoise in the Inland Sea, Japan using a Leslie matrix model composed of age-specific survival and fertility rates. We described the uncertainty in the annual rate of increase (λ) for the finless porpoise using randomly sampled estimates of survival rate for other cetaceans with similar life histories. Plausible median estimates of λ ranged from 1.041 (age at first reproduction [AFR] = 7) to 1.056 (AFR = 5). Future population changes and extinction probabilities were predicted after combining these estimates with a predicted human-induced mortality rate (M) and available abundance estimates. The extinction probability after 100 years was 0 %. However, the probability of the quasi-extinction (<100 individuals) was as high as 79.0 % after 100 years. The results also suggest that the persistence of the finless porpoise population could be achieved with a small effort to reduce anthropogenic mortality.  相似文献   

2.
Despite the importance of roe deer as a host for Ixodes ticks in central Europe, estimates of total tick burden on roe deer are not available to date. We aimed at providing (1) estimates of life stage and sex specific (larvae, nymphs, males and females, hereafter referred to as tick life stages) total Ixodes burden and (2) equations which can be used to predict the total life stage burden by counting the life stage on a selected body area. Within a period of 1½ years, we conducted whole body counts of ticks from 80 hunter-killed roe deer originating from a beech dominated forest area in central Germany. Averaged over the entire study period (winter 2007–summer 2009), the mean tick burden per roe deer was 64.5 (SE ± 10.6). Nymphs were the most numerous tick life stage per roe deer (23.9 ± 3.2), followed by females (21.4 ± 3.5), larvae (10.8 ± 4.2) and males (8.4 ± 1.5). The individual tick burden was highly aggregated (k = 0.46); levels of aggregation were highest in larvae (k = 0.08), followed by males (k = 0.40), females (k = 0.49) and nymphs (k = 0.71). To predict total life stage specific burdens based on counts on selected body parts, we provide linear equations. For estimating larvae abundance on the entire roe deer, counts can be restricted to the front legs. Tick counts restricted to the head are sufficient to estimate total nymph burden and counts on the neck are appropriate for estimating adult ticks (females and males). In order to estimate the combined tick burden, tick counts on the head can be used for extrapolation. The presented linear models are highly significant and explain 84.1, 77.3, 90.5, 91.3, and 65.3% (adjusted R 2) of the observed variance, respectively. Thus, these models offer a robust basis for rapid tick abundance assessment. This can be useful for studies aiming at estimating effects of abiotic and biotic factors on tick abundance, modelling tick population dynamics, modelling tick-borne pathogen transmission dynamics or assessing the efficacy of acaricides.  相似文献   

3.
Finding practical ways to robustly estimate abundance or density trends in threatened species is a key facet for effective conservation management. Further identifying less expensive monitoring methods that provide adequate data for robust population density estimates can facilitate increased investment into other conservation initiatives needed for species recovery. Here we evaluated and compared inference-and cost-effectiveness criteria for three field monitoring-density estimation protocols to improve conservation activities for the threatened Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). We undertook line-transect counts, cage trapping and camera monitoring surveys for Komodo dragons at 11 sites within protected areas in Eastern Indonesia to collect data to estimate density using distance sampling methods or the Royle–Nichols abundance induced heterogeneity model. Distance sampling estimates were considered poor due to large confidence intervals, a high coefficient of variation and that false absences were obtained in 45 % of sites where other monitoring methods detected lizards present. The Royle–Nichols model using presence/absence data obtained from cage trapping and camera monitoring produced highly correlated density estimates, obtained similar measures of precision and recorded no false absences in data collation. However because costs associated with camera monitoring were considerably less than cage trapping methods, albeit marginally more expensive than distance sampling, better inference from this method is advocated for ongoing population monitoring of Komodo dragons. Further the cost-savings achieved by adopting this field monitoring method could facilitate increased expenditure on alternative management strategies that could help address current declines in two Komodo dragon populations.  相似文献   

4.
It is at the population level that an invasion either fails or succeeds. Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) is a weed of great significance in Queensland Australia and globally but its whole life-history ecology is poorly known. Here we used 3 years of field data across four land use types (farm, hoop pine plantation and two open eucalyptus forests, including one with a triennial fire regime) to parameterise the weed’s vital rates and develop size-structured matrix models. Lantana camara in its re-colonization phase, as observed in the recently cleared hoop pine plantation, was projected to increase more rapidly (annual growth rate, λ = 3.80) than at the other three sites (λ 1.88–2.71). Elasticity analyses indicated that growth contributed more (64.6 %) to λ than fecundity (18.5 %) or survival (15.5 %), while across size groups, the contribution was of the order: juvenile (19–27 %) ≥ seed (17–28 %) ≥ seedling (16–25 %) > small adult (4–26 %) ≥ medium adult (7–20 %) > large adult (0–20 %). From a control perspective it is difficult to determine a single weak point in the life cycle of lantana that might be exploited to reduce growth below a sustaining rate. The triennial fire regime applied did not alter the population elasticity structure nor resulted in local control of the weed. However, simulations showed that, except for the farm population, periodic burning could work within 4–10 years for control of the weed, but fire frequency should increase to at least once every 2 years. For the farm, site-specific control may be achieved by 15 years if the biennial fire frequency is tempered with increased burning intensity.  相似文献   

5.
Abandonment of traditional land-use practices can have strong effects on the abundance of species occurring in agricultural landscapes. However, the precise mechanisms by which individual performance and population dynamics are affected are still poorly understood. To assess how abandonment affects population dynamics of Succisa pratensis we used data from a 4-year field study in both abandoned and traditionally grazed areas in moist and mesic habitats to parameterize integral projection models. Abandoned populations had a lower long-term stochastic population growth rate (λ S = 0.90) than traditionally managed populations (λ S = 1.08), while λ S did not differ between habitat types. The effect of abandonment differed significantly between years and had opposed effects on different vital rates. Individuals in abandoned populations experienced higher mortality rates and lower seedling establishment, but had higher growth rates and produced more flower heads per plant. Population viability analyses, based on a population survey of the whole study area in combination with our demographic models, showed that 32 % of the populations face a high risk of extinction (>80 %) within 20 years. These results suggest that immediate changes in management are needed to avoid extinctions and further declines in population sizes. Stochastic elasticity analyses and stochastic life table response experiments indicated that management strategies would be most effective if they increase survival of small plants as well as seedling establishment, while maintaining a high seed production. This may be achieved by varying the grazing intensity between years or excluding grazers when plants are flowering.  相似文献   

6.
Dense ungulate populations in forest accompanied by high grazing intensities have the potential to affect plant population dynamics, and such herbivory effects on populations are hypothesised to differ along environmental gradients. We investigated red deer grazing and resource interaction effects on the performance and dynamics of the functionally important boreal shrub Vaccinium myrtillus using integral projection models (IPMs). We sampled data from 900 V. myrtillus ramets in 30 plots in two consecutive years across the boreo-nemoral pine forest on the island Svanøy, western Norway. The plots spanned two environmental gradients: a red deer grazing intensity gradient (assessed by Cervus elaphus faecal pellets), and a relative resource gradient (DCA-ordination of species composition). The use of IPMs enabled projections of population growth rate (λ) using continuous plant size instead of forcing stage division upon the demographic data. We used the environmental gradients as continuous variables to explain the dynamics of V. myrtillus populations and found that both increasing grazing intensity and resource levels negatively affected λ of the V. myrtillus populations. Interestingly, these factors interacted: the negative effects of grazing were strongest in the resource-rich vegetation, and higher resource levels reduced λ more strongly than at low resource levels when grazing intensities became higher. Populations with λ > 1 were projected if the grazing intensity was less than or equal to the mean grazing intensity on the island, and indicated that V. myrtillus is relatively tolerant of grazing. Variance decomposing showed that the decrease of λ along the grazing gradient, both at low and high resource levels, was largely caused by reductions in plant growth. The use of IPMs together with important environmental gradients offered novel possibilities to study the synthesised effect of different factors on plant population dynamics. Here, we show that the population response of an abundant boreal shrub to ungulate grazing depends on resource level.  相似文献   

7.
Demographic studies of imperiled populations can aid managers in planning conservation actions. However, applicability of findings for a single population across a species’ range is sometimes questionable. We conducted long-term studies (8 and 9 years, respectively) of 2 populations of the lizard Phrynosoma cornutum separated by 1000 km within the historical distribution of the species. The sites were a 15-ha urban wildlife reserve on Tinker Air Force Base (TAFB) in central Oklahoma and a 6000-ha wildland site in southern Texas, the Chaparral Wildlife Management Area (CWMA). We predicted a trade-off between the effect of adult survival and fecundity on population growth rate (λ), leading to population-specific contributions of individual vital rates to λ and individualized strategies for conservation and management of this taxon. The CWMA population had lower adult survival and higher fecundity than TAFB. As predicted, there was a trade-off in the effects of adult survival and fecundity on λ between the two sites; fecundity affected λ more at CWMA than at TAFB. However, adult survival had the smallest effect on λ in both populations. We found that recruitment in P. cornutum most affected λ at both sites, with hatchling survival having the strongest influence on λ. Management strategies focusing on hatchling survival would strongly benefit both populations. As a consequence, within the constraint of the need to more accurately estimate hatchling survival, managers across the range of species such as P. cornutum could adopt similar management priorities with respect to stage classes, despite intra-population differences in population vital rates.  相似文献   

8.
Changing predator communities have been implicated in reduced survival of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns. Few studies, however, have used field-based age-specific estimates for survival and fecundity to assess the relative importance of low fawn survival on population growth and harvest potential. We studied white-tailed deer population dynamics on Tensas River National Wildlife Refuge (TRNWR) in Louisiana, USA, where the predator community included bobcats (Lynx rufus), coyotes (Canis latrans), and a restored population of Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus). During 2013–2015, we radio-collared and monitored 70 adult (≥2.5 yrs) and 21 yearling (1.5-yr-old) female deer. Annual survival averaged 0.815 (95% CI = 0.734–0.904) for adults and 0.857 (95% CI = 0.720–1.00) for yearlings. We combined these estimates with concurrently collected fawn survival estimates (0.27; 95% CI = 0.185–0.398) to model population trajectories and elasticities. We used estimates of nonhunting survival (annual survival estimated excluding harvest mortality) to project population growth (λ) relative to 4 levels of harvest (0, 10%, 20%, 30%). Finally, we investigated effects of reduced fawn survival on population growth under current management and with elimination of female harvest. Despite substantial fawn predation, the deer population on TRNWR was increasing (λ = 1.06) and could sustain additional female harvest; however, the population was expected to decline at 20% (λ = 0.98) and 30% (λ = 0.94) female harvest. With no female harvest, the population was projected to increase with observed (λ = 1.15) and reduced fawn survival (λ = 1.02), but the population could not sustain current female harvest (10%) if fawn survival declined (λ = 0.90). For all scenarios, adult female survival was the most elastic parameter. Given the importance of adult female survival, the relative predictability in response of adult survival to harvest management, and the difficulty in altering fawn survival, reducing female harvest is likely the most efficient approach to compensate for low fawn survival. On highly productive sites such as ours, reduction, but not necessarily elimination, of harvest can mitigate effects of low fawn survival on population growth. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.  相似文献   

9.
There is much interest in managing invasive freshwater fish, but little is known about the dynamics of these populations following establishment. We used annual commercial catch-per-unit-effort data at multiple spatio-temporal scales to test hypotheses about the population dynamics of invading common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. We hypothesised that following establishment of the Boolara strain of this species in the Murray-Darling Basin in 1961/1962: (1) carp would undergo exponential or logistic-type population growth; and (2) carp population growth rates would be highest following over-bank flood events that provided extensive off-channel spawning and feeding habitats. The logistic (w i  = 0.73) and delayed-logistic (w i  = 0.27) models best explained the population dynamics of common carp in the Murray-Darling Basin during 1962/1963–2001/2002; there was negligible support for exponential growth (w i  ≤ 0.01). Although we cannot exclude the possibility that floods may have been important in the early years of the invasion we found little evidence that carp population growth rates increased following flood events. Our logistic-type model-based estimates of the maximum annual population growth rate (r m; 0.378 and 0.384) indicate that >0.315 or 0.319 of the adult population would need to be removed annually to achieve eradication. We conclude that the rapid spread of the Boolara strain of common carp through the Murray-Darling Basin was facilitated by high initial population growth rates. More generally, we suggest that the lag period between an invader establishing and increasing to high abundances will be characterised by logistic-type population growth. We encourage others to investigate the long-term population dynamics of invading freshwater fish using time series and models such as those reported here.  相似文献   

10.
Population estimates, often difficult to acquire, warrantee the use of an index as an economical substitute for rapid assessments of populations. We estimated population size of the little known social, semi-fossorial Indian desert jird (Meriones hurrianae) in Kachchh, Gujarat, India under closed population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) framework to calibrate a burrow count index for the species. A total of 147 individuals were trapped in 16 colonies using baited Sherman traps and the number of burrow entrances at each colony was recorded. Data from colonies with low number of captures were pooled to estimate capture probability using Huggins heterogeneity models with gender, site, body weight and age category as covariates in Program MARK. Colony sizes ranged from 2 to 46 individuals. The number of burrow entrances was calibrated against CMR-based population estimates using least squares regression (n = 16, adjusted R 2 = 0.96, t = 18.18, P < 0.001). The index was further validated using Jackknife (JK) analysis where JK-predicted population estimates strongly correlated with CMR estimates (r = 0.96, P < 0.001). In habitats and climatic conditions similar to Kachchh and within the range of colony sizes sampled, our calibrated index can be a valuable and effective tool for large scale surveys of the desert jird, which occupies a keystone trophic level in the semi-arid ecosystem.  相似文献   

11.
Specific constellations of lipoprotein particle features, reflected as differences in mean lipoprotein particle diameters, are associated with risk of insulin resistance (IR) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The associations of lipid profiles with disease risk differ by race/ethnicity, the reason for this is not clear. We aimed to examine whether there were additional genetic differences between racial/ethnic groups on lipoprotein profile. Genotypes were assessed using the Affymetrix 6.0 array in 817 related Caucasian participants of the Genetics of Lipid Lowering Drugs and Diet Network (GOLDN). Association analysis was conducted on fasting mean particle diameters using linear models, adjusted for age, sex and study center as fixed effects, and pedigree as a random effect. Replication of associations reaching P < 1.97 × 10?05 (the level at which we achieved at least 80 % power to replicate SNP-phenotype associations) was conducted in the Caucasian population of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA; N = 2,430). Variants which replicated across both Caucasian populations were subsequently tested for association in the African-American (N = 1,594), Chinese (N = 758), and Hispanic (N = 1,422) populations of MESA. Variants in the APOB gene region were significantly associated with mean VLDL diameter in GOLDN, and in the Caucasian and Hispanic populations of MESA, while variation in the hepatic lipase (LIPC) gene was associated with mean HDL diameter in both Caucasians populations only. Our findings suggest that the genetic underpinnings of mean lipoprotein diameter differ by race/ethnicity. As lipoprotein diameters are modifiable, this may lead new strategies to modify lipoprotein profiles during the reduction of IR that are sensitive to race/ethnicity.  相似文献   

12.
From foraging theory, generalist predators should increase consumption of prey if prey availability increases. Pulsed resource events introduce a large influx of prey to predators that may exhibit a functional response of increased consumption rate on, or specialization to, this abundant food resource. We predicted that coyotes (Canis latrans) would respond functionally to numerical increases of neonate white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) during the pulsed resource event of parturition. We used howl surveys and deer camera surveys with occupancy modeling to estimate densities for coyotes, adult deer, and fawns, respectively, in Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA, 2009–2011. We estimated biomass of adult and fawn deer consumed by coyotes during 2 periods [fawn limited mobility period (LMP) and social mobility period (SMP)] in May–August each year. Coyote densities were 0.32 and 0.37/km2 for 2010–2011, respectively. Adult deer densities (3.7–3.9/km2) and fawn densities (0.6–1.3/km2) were similar across years. Overall, fawn hair occurrence in coyote scats was 2.3 times greater in LMP than SMP. Estimated consumption of fawns between periods (n = 157–880) by coyotes varied, suggesting a functional response, with increasing consumption of fawns relative to their availability. Coyotes, on average, consumed 2.2 times greater biomass of fawns than adults across years, and consumed 1.5 times greater fawn biomass, on average, during LMP than SMP. We suggest that consumption rates of coyotes is associated positively with increases in fawn density, and fawn consumption by coyotes follows predictions of optimal foraging theory during this pulsed resource event.  相似文献   

13.
Harrisia portoricensis is an endemic Caribbean cactus currently under threatened status. In this study we used population projection matrices to evaluate the conservation status of this species and we performed a systematic analysis of the effects of matrix dimensionality on the inferred demographic parameters. Results revealed that population growth rates (λ) were 0.946 and 0.961 for the 2007–2008 and 2008–2009 periods respectively, suggesting a declining population with limited persistence ability. Even when the highest elasticity values corresponded to the survival of adults, numerical simulations suggested that increases in either seedling establishment or fecundity could render λ > 1. Our empirical-based analysis using raw demographic data revealed a clear trend for λ values to decrease with increasing matrix dimension. Stasis and fecundity elasticities were also found to decrease whereas retrogression and growth elasticitites increased with increasing matrix dimension. These results are roughly insensitive to the method used to create matrices of different dimensions. For H. portoricensis, large matrices with narrow classifications were required to minimize variations in λ, highlighting the need for large data sets to assess the convergence of results with matrix dimensionality. Our combined results emphasize that under current scenarios the ability of H. portoricensis for population growth is severely limited. Any management strategy designed for the conservation of this species should consider long-term monitoring of populations as well as programs that enhance seedling establishment and adult survival.  相似文献   

14.
Estimation of population trends and demographic parameters is important to our understanding of fundamental ecology and species management, yet these data are often difficult to obtain without the use of data from population surveys or marking animals. The northeastern Minnesota moose (Alces alces Linnaeus, 1758) population declined 58% during 2006–2017, yet aerial surveys indicated stability during 2012–2017. In response to the decline, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) initiated studies of adult and calf survival to better understand cause‐specific mortality, calf recruitment, and factors influencing the population trajectory. We estimated population growth rate (λ) using adult survival and calf recruitment data from demographic studies and the recruitment–mortality (R‐M) Equation and compared these estimates to those calculated using data from aerial surveys. We then projected population dynamics 50 years using each resulting λ and used a stochastic model to project population dynamics 30 years using data from the MNDNR's studies. Calculations of λ derived from 2012 to 2017 survey data, and the R‐M Equation indicated growth (1.02 ± 0.16 [SE] and 1.01 ± 0.04, respectively). However, the stochastic model indicated a decline in the population over 30 years (λ = 0.91 ± 0.004; 2014–2044). The R‐M Equation has utility for estimating λ, and the supporting information from demographic collaring studies also helps to better address management questions. Furthermore, estimates of λ calculated using collaring data were more certain and reflective of current conditions. Long‐term monitoring using collars would better inform population performance predictions and demographic responses to environmental variability.  相似文献   

15.
Age and growth estimates for the smooth skate, Malacoraja senta, were derived from 306 vertebral centra from skates caught in the North Atlantic off the coast of New Hampshire and Massachusetts, USA. Males and females were aged to 15 and 14 years, respectively. Male and female growth diverged at both ends of the data range and the sexes required different growth functions to describe them. Males followed a traditional growth scenario and were best described by a von Bertalanffy curve with a set L o (11 cm TL) where L inf  = 75.4 cm TL, K = 0.12. Females required the use of back-calculated values to account for a lack of small individuals, using these data they were best described by a von Bertalanffy curve where growth parameters derived from vertebral length-at-age data are L inf  = 69.6 cm TL, K = 0.12, and L o  = 10.  相似文献   

16.
D. Botha  M. Steyn  Y. Scholtz  I. Ribot 《HOMO》2017,68(4):243-255
As the identity of a large number of Khoe-San skeletal material in European collections recently came into question during its documentation, a re-evaluation of the remains by employing a non-invasive method such as craniometrics was done to investigate the biological affinity. For this purpose, gene flow and population diversity present within the group, as well as between the study sample (N = 63) and other modern and historic population groups from southern, central and east Africa were explored. Available comparative groups included the historic Khoe-San from Riet River (N = 31), the Sotho-Tswana from southern Africa (N = 61), the Basuku from central Africa (N = 66) and the Bahutu (N = 53) and Teita (N = 24) from east Africa. Ten craniometric variables were selected and used to perform population structure analysis based on model bound quantitative genetics and multiple discriminant function analysis (MDA). Quantitative genetic distances revealed that the Khoe-San sample was closest to the Riet River group. Residual variance analysis performed on two-sample subsets of the Khoe-San group (Cape KS and Various KS) showed a higher level of heterogeneity in the Cape KS than seen in the Khoe-San from various other areas in southern Africa. MDA revealed that Khoe-San intra-sample variance is relatively high, with 44% of the sample (sexes pooled) classified into the Riet River group. The remaining individuals were classified (in decreasing order) into Bahutu (24%), Basuku (24%) and Sotho-Tswana (8%). Although the Khoe-San specimens are closest to the Riet River group, they are clearly not homogenous. Their high level of phenotypic diversity most likely originated from a complex population history involving many group interactions driven by social and political marginalization.  相似文献   

17.
《Plant Ecology & Diversity》2013,6(2-3):185-196
Background: Understanding the effect of perturbation, be it natural or anthropogenic, on the demography and dynamics of the plant populations can help conservation management planning.

Aims: We assessed the impacts of management of a shade coffee plantation on a population of Oncidium poikilostalix (Orchidaceae).

Methods: We studied in a coffee (Coffea arabica) agroecosystem the impact of the current traditional management [T] and two hypothetical epiphyte control management scenarios (intense ‘desmusgue’ [ID] and moderate ‘desmusgue’ [MD]), on the only known Mexican population of O. poikilostalix. Based on 3 years of field demographics data, the population dynamics of the orchid were projected using T, ID and MD scenarios for 20 years into the future.

Results: Under the current management T, the population of O. poikilostalix was projected to grow continuously (λ = 1.102). Conversely, under management ID, the loss of individuals would lead to a sustained population decline (λ = 0.843); in the case of MD, the population would decline more slowly with the population growth rate tending towards equilibrium (λ = 0.966).

Conclusions: The changes in the management of coffee plantations that have become common throughout the south-east of Mexico represent a threat to the survival of the only population of O. poikilostalix in Mexico, and likely threaten other epiphytic species.  相似文献   

18.
Tracking devices are commonly used to locate and monitor wild animals for studying spatial ecology and survival rates. There is growing interest in capture effects, partially to minimize the impact on the study species, but also for animal welfare reasons. This study aims to examine roe deer behaviour in box-traps, when restrained, when released and during recaptures to quantify injuries and deaths over a period of 41 years. We use data from 2911 captures from 926 individuals between 1973 and 2014. We recorded behaviour inside the box-traps over two seasons. We also recorded behavioural data from 671 catches of 346 individuals during six seasons to study habituation. Additionally, we discuss box-traps in relation to ethological theory and animal welfare. Over a 41-year period, one roe deer suffering from starvation was found dead in a trap (0.035%), which cannot be solely related to capture (N = 926). About 58% of all roe deer were recaptured at least once during their life time. There was a low prevalence of injuries (0.5% of the captures, N = 2911), and they occurred predominately to the nose or antlers in velvet (in males). During the first hour after capture, animals typically stand very tense between eating bouts. Thereafter, the deer tended to move more softly and exhibited resting behaviours (e.g. lying down). Overall, we conclude that this method of capture and handling had very low impact on the welfare or survival of roe deer, which also habituated to recapture over successive events.  相似文献   

19.
In mountainous areas, native and non-native plants will be exposed to climate change and increased disturbance in the future. Non-native plants may be more successful than natives in disturbed areas and thus be able to respond quicker to shifting climatic zones. In 2009, monitoring plots were established for populations of a non-native species (Linaria dalmatica) and a closely related native species (Castilleja miniata) on an elevation gradient in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA. Population data were collected twice during the growing season for 3 years and used to calculate population vital rates for both species, and to construct population dynamics models for L. dalmatica. Linaria dalmatica vital rates were more associated with climatic/environmental factors than those of C. miniata. Population dynamics models for L. dalmatica showed no trend in population growth rate (λ) vs. elevation. The highest λ corresponded with the lowest vegetation and litter cover, and the highest bare ground cover. All populations with λ < 1 corresponded with the lowest measured winter minimum temperature. There was a negative association between λ and number of weeks of adequate soil moisture, and a weak positive association between λ and mean winter minimum temperature. Variance in vital rates and λ of L. dalmatica suggest broad adaptation within its current range, with the potential to spread further with or without future changes in climate. There is evidence that λ is negatively affected by persistent soil moisture which promotes the growth of other plant species, suggesting that it might expand further if other species were removed by disturbance.  相似文献   

20.
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