Foraging ecology and spatial behaviour of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in a wet grassland ecosystem

We investigated diet composition, habitat selection and spatial behaviour of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in relation to the availability of wader nests in a coastal polder area in southwest Denmark. The predatory role of the red fox in wet grassland ecosystems has profound implications for conservation status of declining populations of grassland breeding waders. However, few studies have focussed on the foraging ecology and behaviour of the red fox in these landscapes. Faecal analyses revealed that fox diet consisted of birds (43 % of prey remains?/?32 % of biomass), rodents (39 %?/?21 %), sheep (mainly as carrion, 14 %?/?41 %) and lagomorphs (4 %?/?7 %). Charadriiformes (including waders) comprised 3–12 % of prey remains throughout the year. Telemetry data and spotlight counts indicated that foxes did not select areas with high densities of breeding waders, suggesting that foxes did not target wader nests while foraging. Foxes maintained stable home ranges throughout their lives, indicating that the area sustained a permanent fox population all year round. The population densities, estimated from spotlight surveys, were 0.74 visible foxes km^?2 (95 % CI; 0.34–1.61) on the preferred breeding habitat for waders and 1.21 km^?2 in other open habitats such as cultivated fields. Our results indicate that red fox predation on wader nests is incidental, consistent with the notion that red foxes are generalist predators that opportunistically subsist on many prey groups.     

Density-dependent habitat selection: Testing the theory with fitness data

Summary According to density-dependent habitat selection theory, reproductive success should decline with increased density. Fitness should be similar between habitats if habitat selection follows an ideal free distribution; fitness should be dissimilar between habitats if habitat selection is modified by territorial behavior. I tested these assumptions by examining a variety of fitness estimates obtained from white-footed mice living in nest boxes in forest, forest edge and fencerow habitats in southwestern Ontario. As expected, mean litter size declined with increased population density. Litter sizes, adult longevity and the proportion of adult animals in breeding condition were not significantly different among the three habitats. The success at recruiting at least one offspring to the adult population and the number of recruits per litter were much greater in the forest than in either of the other two habitats. Fitness was thus unequal among habitats and the results confirm both assumptions of density-dependent habitat selection theory for territorial white-footed mice.     

Census and distribution of chimpanzees in Côte D’Ivoire

Most methods of estimating chimpanzee population densities rely on nest counts. We tested the most frequently used techniques on a known chimpanzee community living in the rainforest of the Taï National Park, Côte d’Ivoire. The best density estimates are given by counts that assume groups of nests to be distributed randomly and that use the mean group size for homogenous habitat but the median for heterogenous habitats. Correction for real forest cover within the region should be made because chimpanzees make nests only in forested regions. This method gave the exact chimpanzee density for the Taï population, i.e. 1.7 nest builders/km². For the nationwide survey, we first estimated the chimpanzee density for different types of habitat (e.g. intact primary forest: 1.64 chimpanzees/km²; degraded forests: 0.4 chimpanzees/km²; human encroached forests and mosaic habitats: 0.09 chimpanzees/km²). Second, we estimated the total forest cover of the country with satellite pictures. This gave an estimated chimpanzee population in Côte d’Ivoire of about 11,676 ± 1,168 individuals, which equals the number of spectators at a soccer game in an average European town. Sadly, only three National Parks may have chimpanzee populations large enough to be viable, whereas the rest are scattered and isolated small populations that are already threatened in their survival.     

四川卧龙国家级自然保护区多空间尺度下绿尾虹雉的生境选择

动物的生境选择具有空间尺度依赖性, 在不同空间尺度上影响生境选择的环境因素有所不同。研究不同空间尺度下动物生境选择的关键影响因子及其季节性变化, 对于全面了解物种的生境资源需求和开展生境保护具有重要意义。绿尾虹雉(Lophophorus lhuysii)是中国特有的高山雉类, 国家一级重点保护野生动物, 具有极高的保护价值。然而, 目前尚未对其不同尺度和时期的生境选择进行过探究。本研究于2019年10月至2020年10月, 在四川卧龙国家级自然保护区的羊角湾、魏家沟和文扎都3个区域共布设15条样线、303个样方, 并结合红外相机监测(176个红外相机位点), 对保护区内绿尾虹雉种群的生境利用状况进行了调查, 使用主成分分析和逻辑斯蒂回归模型分别从景观和微生境两个尺度对繁殖期(3‒8月)和非繁殖期(9月至翌年2月)的生境选择模式进行了分析。结果显示, 在景观尺度上, 在繁殖期和非繁殖期都显著偏好海拔较高(3,700‒ 4,300 m)、坡度较小(27°‒33°)、靠近阳坡、草甸和流石滩比例较高而森林和灌丛比例较低的生境。在微生境尺度上, 绿尾虹雉在繁殖期显著偏好岩石盖度较高的生境; 而非繁殖期则显著偏好草本盖度较高、灌木盖度和落叶盖度较低的生境。研究表明, 绿尾虹雉在景观和微生境尺度上均对生境有明显的选择性, 并且其微生境选择还存在季节性变化, 反映了该物种在生活史不同阶段具有不同的资源需求。本研究丰富了绿尾虹雉的基础生态学信息, 为卧龙及其他自然保护区绿尾虹雉的生境管理和种群保护工作提供了参考。     

Identifying important bird habitats in a sub-arctic area undergoing rapid land-use change

Capsule Habitats in lowland South Iceland sustain bird populations of international importance, with highest densities in wet habitats.

Aims In areas important for biodiversity there is an urgent need to assess large-scale variation in the biodiversity value of habitats to inform management. We carried out a large-scale survey to assess the conservation value of sub-arctic, Icelandic bird habitats.

Methods Bird counts were carried out on 200 transects in the five most common vegetated habitat types in South Iceland. Based on these counts, breeding bird density and diversity were compared between habitats and total population sizes of common species in these habitats were calculated.

Results Overall, eight species (seven waders and Meadow Pipit) composed over 95% of all birds counted. The combined density of those species exceeded 275 birds/km² in all habitats. The two wettest habitat types had the highest density of birds.

Conclusion Wet habitats in lowland South Iceland held particularly high densities of breeding birds, notably waders, which constitute populations of international importance. Wet habitat types are generally of higher value for more species, than dryer ones.     

Sex‐dependent habitat selection in a high‐density Little Bustard Tetrax tetrax population in southern France,and the implications for conservation

Conservation measures often rely on habitat management, so knowledge about a species’ habitat use is a prerequisite for effective conservation planning. The Little Bustard Tetrax tetrax, a medium‐sized bird native to the Palaearctic steppes and today found in extensively farmed habitats, is a threatened species. Its population experienced a 94% decline in farmland habitats in France between 1982 and 1996, and populations all over Europe have suffered equally sharp declines. Due to this steep negative trend, this species has been the subject of a number of habitat selection studies in order to develop relevant conservation measures based on its habitat requirements. In this study, we investigated the habitat selection of a range of habitat types by both sexes and at two nested spatial scales: plot scale and landscape scale. In addition, we analysed intra‐specific social interactions by incorporating conspecific density in the statistical models of habitat use. The study was conducted on a very high‐density population, perhaps the highest ever recorded for this species at around 50 Bustards per 100 ha of suitable habitat. Our methodology combined two field approaches (point counts and quadrat counts). The findings showed rather limited sexual dimorphism in terms of habitat selection at a local scale, with only vegetation height differing between sexes at a micro‐habitat scale, no selection at landscape scale, and a prevailing role of social factors at both scales. The implications for future conservation strategies in relation to population density and landscape composition are discussed.     

The importance of fine-scale breeding site selection patterns under a landscape-sharing approach for wolf conservation

For large carnivores persisting in human-dominated landscapes, conservation planning is often hindered by the large spatial requirements of these species, availability of protected areas, and human land uses. Protected areas are usually too small to support viable populations, and scattered across a human land-use matrix. Therefore, large carnivore conservation should be planned at large spatial scales under a land-sharing approach (allowing the coexistence between large carnivores and people in the same landscape), which means increasing the focus on the human-dominated matrix. Most of the critical factors determining large carnivore persistence (i.e., those related to food availability and vulnerability to humans) interact synergistically in space and time during the breeding season. Here, using as a case study a wolf population in NW Iberia, we studied fine-scale breeding site selection patterns (1 and 9 km²) in relation to human pressure, and the availability of food and refuge. The selection of wolf breeding sites in this human-dominated landscape was not determined by potential availability of prey biomass in the immediate vicinity (1 km²). However, wolves selected breeding sites with high availability of refuge (concealing vegetation), and low human accessibility and activity levels. Paved roads showed the highest proportion of independent contribution to explaining breeding site selection patterns (negative influence), being followed by refuge availability (positive influence) and the remoteness of breeding sites in relation to the surrounding spatial context (positive influence). Refuge availability, even at very small spatial scales taking into account the spatial requirements of wolves, may compensate for moderate levels of human activities in the vicinity of breeding sites. The strength of breeding selection patterns varied along a hierarchical process at different spatial scales. Under a landscape-sharing approach, integrating key processes observed in the human-dominated matrix, such as breeding site selection patterns, into landscape planning is of paramount importance for carnivore conservation. By temporally restricting human use on breeding sites and small portions of surrounding lands (~ 1 km²), and by maintaining several small refuge areas interspersed within the human-dominated matrix, we could favor wolf persistence without reducing land availability for other uses, improving the conditions for coexistence between wolves and humans.     

Density‐dependent effects on reproductive performance in a recovering population of White‐tailed Eagles Haliaeetus albicilla

Understanding the mechanisms that shape density‐dependent processes and population dynamics is often essential for species conservation. Two key mechanisms of density‐dependent reductions in reproductive performance are a limited access to foraging habitats (the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis) and territorial aggression towards conspecifics (the interference competition hypothesis) at high population densities. Disentangling the relative importance of these mechanisms within populations below their carrying capacity is important for the evaluation of the success of conservation measures. However, relatively few studies have attempted to quantify the relative importance of both mechanisms for the reproductive performance of a population. Many raptor populations are ideal model systems to investigate density‐dependent effects because they are currently recovering from human‐induced reductions during the last decades. Using a 14‐year dataset, we combined analyses of individual reproductive performance with a mechanistic population model to investigate early signs of density‐dependent regulation in a population of White‐tailed Eagles Haliaeetus albicilla in north‐east Germany. We found a negative effect of the number of neighbouring breeding pairs and a positive effect of water surface area (as a proxy for the availability of favourable foraging habitat) on breeding success and on the average number of nestlings. The mean nearest neighbour distance between breeding pairs has decreased, and the mean distance of nests to the nearest water body has increased over the last 14 years. Moreover, the population model indicates that even though the population is still growing, carrying capacity could be reached at about 500–950 territorial pairs. These results suggest that the selection of nesting sites is determined by a trade‐off between the distance to favourable foraging habitat and the distance to neighbouring breeding pairs. To avoid increasing competition with conspecifics, due to continued population growth, breeding pairs seem to select increasingly suboptimal habitats. Therefore, our results suggest that the habitat heterogeneity and interference competition hypotheses are not necessarily mutually exclusive as mechanisms of density‐dependent population regulation, but can determine the reproductive performance of a raptor population simultaneously. Thus, a future decline in breeding success does not necessarily reflect a decrease in habitat quality but may rather be a consequence of density‐dependent mechanisms. This information may be useful for the interpretation of population trends and for the development of appropriate management strategies for recovering raptor populations.     

2000-2015年丹顶鹤重要繁殖地景观格局变化研究

以18个自然保护区为研究对象,全面系统地研究了我国丹顶鹤大陆种群重要繁殖地景观格局变化,结果表明：2000-2015年丹顶鹤重要繁殖地土地利用变化明显,突出表现为沼泽湿地面积急剧减少了1400.5 km²,主要转化为耕地、水体和草地,耕地面积大幅增加了1085.4 km²,主要由沼泽湿地、草地和林地转化而来;丹顶鹤重要繁殖地2000-2015年景观连通性保持稳定,但吉林莫莫格、黑龙江七星河、挠力河等自然保护区景观破碎化程度明显增加;东部种群重要繁殖地沼泽湿地缩减面积和不适宜生境增加面积均大于西部种群,表明东部种群繁殖地的恶化程度更为严重,需引起高度关注。首次基于长时间序列对丹顶鹤大陆种群繁殖地的变化开展了较为全面的研究,为有针对性地开展栖息地保护管理工作、促进丹顶鹤野生种群健康可持续发展提供了依据。     

Density-dependent habitat selection and partitioning between two sympatric ungulates

Theory on density-dependent habitat selection predicts that as population density of a species increases, use of higher quality (primary) habitat by individuals declines while use of lower quality (secondary) habitat rises. Habitat partitioning is often considered the primary mechanism for coexistence between similar species, but how this process evolves with changes in population density remains to be empirically tested for free-ranging ungulates. We used resource-selection functions to quantify density effects on landscape-scale habitat selection of two sympatric species of ungulates [moose (Alces alces) and elk (Cervus canadensis manitobensis)] in Riding Mountain National Park, Manitoba, Canada (2000–2011). The density of elk was actively reduced from 1.2 to 0.4 elk km^?2 through increased hunting effort during the period of study, while moose density decreased without additional human influence from 1.6–0.7 moose km^?2. Patterns of habitat selection during winter by both species changed in accordance to expectations from density-dependent habitat-selection theory. At low intraspecific density, moose and elk did not partition habitat, as both species selected strongly for mixed forest (primary habitat providing both food and cover), but did so in different areas segregated across an elevational gradient. As intraspecific density increased, selection for primary habitat by both species decreased, while selection for secondary, lower quality habitat such as agricultural fields (for elk) and built-up areas (for moose) increased. We show that habitat-selection strategies during winter for moose and elk, and subsequent effects on habitat partitioning, depend heavily on the position in state space (density) of both species.     

At what spatial scales does resource selection vary? A case study of koalas in a semi‐arid region

The conservation of any species requires understanding and predicting the distribution of its habitat and resource use, including the effects of scale‐dependent variation in habitat and resource quality. Consequently, testing for resource selection at the appropriate scales is critical. We investigated how the resource selection process varies across scales, using koalas in a semi‐arid landscape of eastern Australia as a case study. We asked: at what scales does tree selection by koalas vary across regions? We tested the importance of the variation of our ecological predictors at the following scales: (i) the site‐scale (a stand of trees representing an individual koala's perception of local habitat); (ii) the landscape‐scale (10 × 10 km area representing a space within which a population of koalas exists); and (iii) a combination of these scales. We used a mixed‐modelling approach to quantify variation in selection of individual trees by koalas among sites and landscapes within a 1600 km² study area. We found that tree species, and tree height, were the most important factors influencing tree selection, and that their effect did not vary across scales. In contrast, preferences for trees of different condition, which is the state of tree canopy health, did vary across landscapes, indicating spatial variation in the selection of trees with respect to tree condition at the landscape‐scale, but not at the site‐scale. We conclude that resource selection processes can depend on the quality of those resources at different scales and their heterogeneous nature across landscapes, highlighting the consequence of scale‐dependent ecological processes. Designing studies that capture the heterogeneity in habitat and resources used by species that have an extensive distribution is an important prerequisite for effective conservation planning and management.     

Multi-scale habitat selection affects offspring survival in a precocial species

In theory, habitat preferences should be adaptive. Accordingly, fitness is often assumed to be greater in preferred habitats; however, this assumption is rarely tested and, when it is, the results are often equivocal. Habitat preferences may not directly convey fitness advantages if animals are constrained by tradeoffs with other selective pressures like predation or food availability. We address unresolved questions about the survival consequences of habitat choices made during brood-rearing in a precocial species with exclusive maternal care (mallard Anas platyrhynchos, n = 582 radio-marked females on 27 sites over 8 years). We directly linked duckling survival with habitat selection patterns at two spatial scales using logistic regression and model selection techniques. At the landscape scale (55–80 km²), females that demonstrated stronger selection of areas with more cover type 4 wetlands and greater total cover type 3 wetland area (wetlands with large expanses of open water surrounded by either a narrow or wide peripheral band of vegetation, respectively) had lower duckling survival rates than did females that demonstrated weaker selection of these habitats. At finer scales (0.32–7.16 km²), females selected brood-rearing areas with a greater proportion of wetland habitat with no consequences for duckling survival. However, females that avoided woody perennial habitats composed of trees and shrubs fledged more ducklings. The relationship between habitat selection and survival depended on both spatial scale and habitats considered. Females did not consistently select brood-rearing habitats that conferred the greatest benefits, an unexpected finding, although one that has also been reported in other recent studies of breeding birds.     

An Examination of Scale-Dependent Resource Use by Eastern Hognose Snakes in Southcentral New Hampshire

ABSTRACT The decline of many snake populations is attributable to habitat loss, and knowledge of habitat use is critical to their conservation. Resource characteristics (e.g., relative availability of different habitat types, soils, and slopes) within a landscape are scale-dependent and may not be equal across multiple spatial scales. Thus, it is important to identify the relevant spatial scales at which resource selection occurs. We conducted a radiotelemetry study of eastern hognose snake (Heterodon platirhinos) home range size and resource use at different hierarchical spatial scales. We present the results for 8 snakes radiotracked during a 2-year study at New Boston Air Force Station (NBAFS) in southern New Hampshire, USA, where the species is listed by the state as endangered. Mean home range size (minimum convex polygon) at NBAFS (51.7 ± 14.7 ha) was similar to that reported in other parts of the species’ range. Radiotracked snakes exhibited different patterns of resource use at different spatial scales. At the landscape scale (selection of locations within the landscape), snakes overutilized old-field and forest edge habitats and underutilized forested habitats and wetlands relative to availability. At this scale, snakes also overutilized areas containing sandy loam soils and areas with lower slope (mean slope = 5.2% at snake locations vs. 6.7% at random locations). We failed to detect some of these patterns of resource use at the home range scale (i.e., within the home range). Our ability to detect resource selection by the snakes only at the landscape scale is likely the result of greater heterogeneity in macrohabitat features at the broader landscape scale. From a management perspective, future studies of habitat selection for rare species should include measurement of available habitat at spatial scales larger than the home range. We suggest that the maintenance of open early successional habitats as a component of forested landscapes will be critical for the persistence of eastern hognose snake populations in the northeastern United States.     

The importance of traditional farmland areas for steppe birds: a case study of migrant female Great Bustards Otis tarda in Spain

A detailed knowledge of the habitat requirements of steppe birds living in farmland habitats is necessary to identify agricultural practices compatible with their conservation. The globally threatened Great Bustard Otis tarda is a partial migrant in central Iberia, but factors affecting its winter habitat use have not been identified. We assessed habitat differences between breeding and wintering areas and winter habitat selection of radiotagged migrant female Great Bustards in central Spain. Of 68 tagged females, 35% moved to wintering areas located 64.3 ± 24.0 km south of their breeding areas, and 80% wintered in a single area of c. 236 km². A census of the population in this area identified it as one of the most important wintering areas of this species in the world, holding c. 1500 individuals. There were significant differences between breeding and wintering habitats of individually marked migrant females. Compared with breeding areas, wintering areas of migrant females were located further from roads and urban nuclei, had lower human population densities and area of urban developments, and a higher diversity of land‐use types, with less cover of cereals and more vineyards and olive groves. Within this area, radiotracked migrant females preferred sites with more vineyards and a lower land‐use diversity. Our results highlight the importance of traditional Mediterranean dry farmland mosaics, and suggest that different conservation strategies are needed for migrant and resident populations in winter to secure the conservation of suitable wintering habitat for Great Bustards in the Iberian Peninsula.     

Living on the edge: Multiscale habitat selection by cheetahs in a human‐wildlife landscape

Animals select habitats that will ultimately optimize their fitness through access to favorable resources, such as food, mates, and breeding sites. However, access to these resources may be limited by bottom‐up effects, such as availability, and top‐down effects, such as risk avoidance and competition, including that with humans. Competition between wildlife and people over resources, specifically over space, has played a significant role in the worldwide decrease in large carnivores. The goal of this study was to determine the habitat selection of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in a human‐wildlife landscape at multiple spatial scales. Cheetahs are a wide‐ranging, large carnivore, whose significant decline is largely attributed to habitat loss and fragmentation. It is believed that 77% of the global cheetah population ranges outside protected areas, yet little is known about cheetahs’ resource use in areas where they co‐occur with people. The selection, or avoidance, of three anthropogenic variables (human footprint density, distance to main roads and wildlife areas) and five environmental variables (open habitat, semiclosed habitat, edge density, patch density and slope), at multiple spatial scales, was determined by analyzing collar data from six cheetahs. Cheetahs selected variables at different scales; anthropogenic variables were selected at broader scales (720–1440 m) than environmental variables (90–180 m), suggesting that anthropogenic pressures affect habitat selection at a home‐range level, whilst environmental variables influence site‐level habitat selection. Cheetah presence was best explained by human presence, wildlife areas, semiclosed habitat, edge density and slope. Cheetahs showed avoidance for humans and steep slopes and selected for wildlife areas and areas with high proportions of semiclosed habitat and edge density. Understanding a species’ resource requirements, and how these might be affected by humans, is crucial for conservation. Using a multiscale approach, we provide new insights into the habitat selection of a large carnivore living in a human‐wildlife landscape.     

Using Corine Land Cover Habitat Database for the analysis of breeding bird habitat: case study of white storks (Ciconia ciconia) from northern Croatia

The purpose of this study was to find out whether a set of habitat characteristics, derived from the National Corine Land Cover (CLC) database of habitat types, could indicate the occurrence of white stork nests in a settlement. The analyses were performed for the settlements closer than 35 km from the Drava River (northern Croatia). Sixteen habitat characteristics were determined around 257 settlements occupied with white stork nests and 152 control sites without white stork nests within the same geographic region. We performed multivariate inspection of the data and a non-metric multidimensional preference analysis. The best variables for stork habitat selection were: distance to the nearest grassland habitat (P < 0.0001), distance to three nearest grassland habitats (P < 0.0001), altitude of the settlements above the sea level (P < 0.001), sum of distances to the three nearest agricultural mosaic habitats (P < 0.005) and standardized area proportion of forests (P < 0.05). The explanatory capacity of the model was 81.1%. We conclude that it is possible to define a small number of habitat characteristics derived from CLC database which can indicate the occurrence of white stork nests.     

Synchrony, scale and temporal dynamics of rock partridge (Alectoris graeca saxatilis) populations in the Dolomites

1. Harvesting records of rock partridge ( Alectoris graeca saxatilis ) were examined first to identify the presence of cycles in a species with a southern European distribution and then to examine synchrony between populations at a range of scales.
2. Hunting records from 1965 to 1994 were obtained from 210 hunting areas and analysed at three spatial scales: subpopulation, population and metapopulation. Rock partridge exhibited cyclic fluctuations in about 40% of the time series with a period of 4–7 years. The results did not change with spatial scale. The density-dependent structure of the populations showed that most populations exhibited damped oscillations.
3. The proportion of populations that were in synchrony increased with scale from the population to metapopulation level. There was no decline in synchrony with distance but a large variation between populations irrespective of distance.
4. The populations clustered into dry and wet habitats, with those in the dry habitat being more cyclic. We suggest the lack of spatial synchrony with distance but greater synchrony within habitats may reflect the influence of stochastic events operating on populations with different density dependence structures.     

Density-dependent habitat selection alters drivers of population distribution in northern Yellowstone elk

Although it is well established that density dependence drives changes in organismal abundance over time, relatively little is known about how density dependence affects variation in abundance over space. We tested the hypothesis that spatial trade-offs between food and safety can change the drivers of population distribution, caused by opposing patterns of density-dependent habitat selection (DDHS) that are predicted by the multidimensional ideal free distribution. We addressed this using winter aerial survey data of northern Yellowstone elk (Cervus canadensis) spanning four decades. Supporting our hypothesis, we found positive DDHS for food (herbaceous biomass) and negative DDHS for safety (openness and roughness), such that the primary driver of habitat selection switched from food to safety as elk density decreased from 9.3 to 2.0 elk/km². Our results demonstrate how population density can drive landscape-level shifts in population distribution, confounding habitat selection inference and prediction and potentially affecting community-level interactions.     

Waterfowl distribution and productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada: tools for conservation planning

Species conservation requires an understanding of the factors and interactions affecting species distribution and behavior, habitat availability and use, and corresponding vital rates at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Opportunities to investigate these relationships across broad geographic regions are rare. We combined long-term waterfowl population surveys, and studies of habitat use and breeding success, to develop models that identify and incorporate these interactions for upland-nesting waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of Canada. Specifically, we used data from the annual Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey (1961–2009) at the survey segment level and associated habitat covariates to model and map the long-term average duck density across the Canadian PPR. We analyzed nest location and fate data from approximately 25,000 duck nests found during 3 multi-year nesting studies (1994–2011) to model factors associated with nest survival and habitat selection through the nesting season for the 5 most common upland nesting duck species: mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwall (Mareca strepera), blue-winged teal (Spatula discors), northern shoveler (Spatula clypeata), and northern pintail (Anas acuta). Duck density was highly variable across the Canadian PPR, reflecting positive responses to local wetland area and count, and amounts of cropland and grassland, a regional positive response to latitude, and a negative response to local amounts of tree cover. Nest survival was affected by temporal and spatial variables at multiple scales. Specifically, nest survival demonstrated interactive effects among species, nest initiation date, and nesting cover type and was influenced by relative annual wetness, population density, and surrounding landscape composition at landscape scales, and broad geographic gradients (east-west and north-south). Likewise, species-specific probability of nest habitat selection was influenced by timing of nest initiation, population density, relative annual wetness, herbaceous cover, and tree cover in the surrounding landscape, and location within the Canadian PPR. We combined these models, with estimates of breeding effort (nesting, renesting, and nest attempts) from existing literature, in a stochastic conservation planning model that estimates nest distribution and success given spatiotemporal variation in duck density, habitat availability, and influential covariates. We demonstrate the use of this model by examining various conservation planning scenarios. These models allow estimation of local, landscape, and regional influence of conservation investments and other landscape changes on the productivity of breeding duck populations across the PPR of Canada. These models lay the groundwork for the incorporation of conservation delivery costs for full return-on-investment analyses and scenario analyses of climate, habitat, and land use change in regional and continental population models.