Detecting potential regional effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on growth rates of western juniper

Evidence of an atmospheric CO₂ fertilization effect on radial growth rates was uncovered by examining climate–growth relationships for seven western juniper tree‐ring chronologies in central Oregon using multiple regression models. Consistent upward trends of the residuals from dendroclimatic models indicated a decreased ability for climate parameters to predict growth with time. Additionally, an assessment was made of whether enhanced growth was detectable under drought conditions, because a major benefit of elevated atmospheric CO₂ is the reduction of water stress. Mean ring indices were compared between ecologically comparable drought years, when atmospheric CO₂ was lower (1896–1949), and more recent drought years that occurred under higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (1950–96/98). The results presented herein show that: (i) residuals from climate/growth models had a significant positive trend at six of seven sites, suggesting the presence of a nonclimatic factor causing increased growth during recent decades; (ii) overall growth was 23% greater in the latter half of the 20th century; (iii) growth indices during matched drought and matched wet years were 63% and 30% greater, respectively, in the later 20th century than the earlier 20th century; and (iv) harsher sites had greater responses during drought periods between early and late periods. While it is not possible to rule out other factors, these results are consistent with expectations for CO₂ fertilization effects.     

Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.     

Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the preindustrial era estimated by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models: Magnitude,attribution, and uncertainty

Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here, we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change, and rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration, on global soil N₂O emissions for the period 1861–2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process‐based terrestrial biosphere models. Results suggest global soil N₂O emissions have increased from 6.3 ± 1.1 Tg N₂O‐N/year in the preindustrial period (the 1860s) to 10.0 ± 2.0 Tg N₂O‐N/year in the recent decade (2007–2016). Cropland soil emissions increased from 0.3 Tg N₂O‐N/year to 3.3 Tg N₂O‐N/year over the same period, accounting for 82% of the total increase. Regionally, China, South Asia, and Southeast Asia underwent rapid increases in cropland N₂O emissions since the 1970s. However, US cropland N₂O emissions had been relatively flat in magnitude since the 1980s, and EU cropland N₂O emissions appear to have decreased by 14%. Soil N₂O emissions from predominantly natural ecosystems accounted for 67% of the global soil emissions in the recent decade but showed only a relatively small increase of 0.7 ± 0.5 Tg N₂O‐N/year (11%) since the 1860s. In the recent decade, N fertilizer application, N deposition, manure N application, and climate change contributed 54%, 26%, 15%, and 24%, respectively, to the total increase. Rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration reduced soil N₂O emissions by 10% through the enhanced plant N uptake, while land cover change played a minor role. Our estimation here does not account for indirect emissions from soils and the directed emissions from excreta of grazing livestock. To address uncertainties in estimating regional and global soil N₂O emissions, this study recommends several critical strategies for improving the process‐based simulations.     

Increasing water‐use efficiency and age‐specific growth responses of old‐growth ponderosa pine trees in the Northern Rockies

We examined radial growth responses of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. ponderosa) between 1905–1954 and 1955–2004 to determine if the effects of increased intrinsic water‐use efficiencies (iWUE) caused by elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations were age‐specific. We collected 209 cores from five sites in the Northern Rockies and calculated iWUE using carbon isotope data from 1850 to 2004. Standardized radial growth responses were age dependent, with older trees exhibiting significantly higher values than younger trees during the later period at four sites and all sites combined. No significant differences in radial growth existed either for the individual sites or combined site during the earlier period. Increases in iWUE during 1955–2004 were 11% greater than during 1905–1954, and pentadal fluctuations in iWUE were significantly correlated with the radial growth of older trees from 1850 to 2004. Radial growth of younger trees and iWUE were not significantly correlated. Our results suggest that: (1) responses to elevated atmospheric CO₂ in old‐growth ponderosa forests are age‐specific; (2) radial growth increases in older trees coincided with increased iWUE; (3) ponderosa had increased growth rates in their third, fourth, and fifth centuries of life; and (4) age‐specific growth responses during 1955–2004 are unique since at least the mid‐16th century.     

Response of isoprene emission to ambient CO2 changes and implications for global budgets

We explore the potential role of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) on isoprene emissions using a global coupled land–atmosphere model [Community Atmospheric Model–Community Land Model (CAM–CLM)] for recent (year 2000, 365 ppm CO₂) and future (year 2100, 717 ppm CO₂) conditions. We incorporate an empirical model of observed isoprene emissions response to both ambient CO₂ concentrations in the long‐term growth environment and short‐term changes in intercellular CO₂ concentrations into the MEGAN biogenic emission model embedded within the CLM. Accounting for CO₂ inhibition has little impact on predictions of present‐day global isoprene emission (increase from 508 to 523 Tg C yr^?1). However, the large increases in future isoprene emissions typically predicted in models, which are due to a projected warmer climate, are entirely offset by including the CO₂ effects. Projected global isoprene emissions in 2100 drop from 696 to 479 Tg C yr^?1 when this effect is included, maintaining future isoprene sources at levels similar to present day. The isoprene emission response to CO₂ is dominated by the long‐term growth environment effect, with modulations of 10% or less due to the variability in intercellular CO₂ concentration. As a result, perturbations to isoprene emissions associated with changes in ambient CO₂ are largely aseasonal, with little diurnal variability. Future isoprene emissions increase by more than a factor of two in 2100 (to 1242 Tg C yr^?1) when projected changes in vegetation distribution and leaf area density are included. Changing land cover and the role of nutrient limitation on CO₂ fertilization therefore remain the largest source of uncertainty in isoprene emission prediction. Although future projections suggest a compensatory balance between the effects of temperature and CO₂ on isoprene emission, the enhancement of isoprene emission due to lower ambient CO₂ concentrations did not compensate for the effect of cooler temperatures over the last 400 thousand years of the geologic record (including the Last Glacial Maximum).     

Causes of slowing‐down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO₂ (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO₂ record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing‐down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO₂ fertilization. This challenges the view that CO₂ fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land–atmosphere CO₂ flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.     

Maximum impacts of future reforestation or deforestation on atmospheric CO2

There is scope for land‐use changes to increase or decrease CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere over the next century. Here we make simple but robust calculations of the maximum impact of such changes. Historical land‐use changes (mostly deforestation) and fossil fuel emissions have caused an increase in atmospheric concentration of CO₂ of 90 ppm between the pre‐industrial era and year 2000. The projected range of CO₂ concentrations in 2100, under a range of emissions scenarios developed for the IPCC, is 170–600 ppm above 2000 levels. This range is mostly due to different assumptions regarding fossil fuel emissions. If all of the carbon so far released by land‐use changes could be restored to the terrestrial biosphere, atmospheric CO₂ concentration at the end of the century would be about 40–70 ppm less than it would be if no such intervention had occurred. Conversely, complete global deforestation over the same time frame would increase atmospheric concentrations by about 130–290 ppm. These are extreme assumptions; the maximum feasible reforestation and afforestation activities over the next 50 years would result in a reduction in CO₂ concentration of about 15–30 ppm by the end of the century. Thus the time course of fossil fuel emissions will be the major factor in determining atmospheric CO₂ concentrations for the foreseeable future.     

The global pyrogenic carbon cycle and its impact on the level of atmospheric CO2 over past and future centuries

The incomplete combustion of vegetation and dead organic matter by landscape fires creates recalcitrant pyrogenic carbon (PyC), which could be consequential for the global carbon budget if changes in fire regime, climate, and atmospheric CO₂ were to substantially affect gains and losses of PyC on land and in oceans. Here, we included global PyC cycling in a coupled climate–carbon model to assess the role of PyC in historical and future simulations, accounting for uncertainties through five sets of parameter estimates. We obtained year‐2000 global stocks of (Central estimate, likely uncertainty range in parentheses) 86 (11–154), 47 (2–64), and 1129 (90–5892) Pg C for terrestrial residual PyC (RPyC), marine dissolved PyC, and marine particulate PyC, respectively. PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO₂ only slightly between 1751 and 2000 (by 0.8 Pg C for the Central estimate) as PyC‐related fluxes changed little over the period. For 2000 to 2300, we combined Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 with stable or continuously increasing future fire frequencies. For the increasing future fire regime, the production of new RPyC generally outpaced the warming‐induced accelerated loss of existing RPyC, so that PyC cycling decreased atmospheric CO₂ between 2000 and 2300 for most estimates (by 4–8 Pg C for Central). For the stable fire regime, however, PyC cycling usually increased atmospheric CO₂ (by 1–9 Pg C for Central), and only the most extreme choice of parameters maximizing PyC production and minimizing PyC decomposition led to atmospheric CO₂ decreases under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 (by 5–8 Pg C). Our results suggest that PyC cycling will likely reduce the future increase in atmospheric CO₂ if landscape fires become much more frequent; however, in the absence of a substantial increase in fire frequency, PyC cycling might contribute to, rather than mitigate, the future increase in atmospheric CO₂.     

Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations

The global vegetation response to climate and atmospheric CO₂ changes between the last glacial maximum and recent times is examined using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4), driven by output from 17 climate simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. Features common to all of the simulations include expansion of treeless vegetation in high northern latitudes; southward displacement and fragmentation of boreal and temperate forests; and expansion of drought‐tolerant biomes in the tropics. These features are broadly consistent with pollen‐based reconstructions of vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum. Glacial vegetation in high latitudes reflects cold and dry conditions due to the low CO₂ concentration and the presence of large continental ice sheets. The extent of drought‐tolerant vegetation in tropical and subtropical latitudes reflects a generally drier low‐latitude climate. Comparisons of the observations with BIOME4 simulations, with and without consideration of the direct physiological effect of CO₂ concentration on C₃ photosynthesis, suggest an important additional role of low CO₂ concentration in restricting the extent of forests, especially in the tropics. Global forest cover was overestimated by all models when climate change alone was used to drive BIOME4, and estimated more accurately when physiological effects of CO₂ concentration were included. This result suggests that both CO₂ effects and climate effects were important in determining glacial‐interglacial changes in vegetation. More realistic simulations of glacial vegetation and climate will need to take into account the feedback effects of these structural and physiological changes on the climate.     

CO2 emissions from biomass combustion for bioenergy: atmospheric decay and contribution to global warming

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from biomass combustion are traditionally assumed climate neutral if the bioenergy system is carbon (C) flux neutral, i.e. the CO₂ released from biofuel combustion approximately equals the amount of CO₂ sequestered in biomass. This convention, widely adopted in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies of bioenergy systems, underestimates the climate impact of bioenergy. Besides CO₂ emissions from permanent C losses, CO₂ emissions from C flux neutral systems (that is from temporary C losses) also contribute to climate change: before being captured by biomass regrowth, CO₂ molecules spend time in the atmosphere and contribute to global warming. In this paper, a method to estimate the climate impact of CO₂ emissions from biomass combustion is proposed. Our method uses CO₂ impulse response functions (IRF) from C cycle models in the elaboration of atmospheric decay functions for biomass‐derived CO₂ emissions. Their contributions to global warming are then quantified with a unit‐based index, the GWP_bio. Since this index is expressed as a function of the rotation period of the biomass, our results can be applied to CO₂ emissions from combustion of all the different biomass species, from annual row crops to slower growing boreal forest.     

Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with land use change

Uncertainties in the 20th century carbon budget associated with the treatment of land use change (LUC) are assessed using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) first‐generation Earth System Model (CanESM1). Eight coupled climate carbon cycle simulations are performed using different reconstructions of 1850–2000 land cover derived from historical information on changes in cropland and pasture area. The simulations provide estimates of the emissions associated with LUC, the relative contribution of changes in cropland and pasture to LUC emissions and the uncertainty associated with differences among historical data sets of crop area as well as in the manner in which the historical land cover data are constructed. The resulting estimates of the amount of biomass deforested over the 1850–2000 period range from 63 to 145 Pg C with cumulative implied LUC emissions ranging from 40 to 77 Pg C. These values of LUC emissions are considerably lower than Houghton's estimate of 156 Pg C. The year 2000 atmospheric CO₂ concentration ranges between 371.1 ± 3.7 ppm depending on the data set used and the manner in which historical land cover is constructed. This compares to the observed value of 369.6 ppm at Mauna Loa and is 17.3 ± 6.3 ppm larger than for simulations without LUC. Although increases in cropland result in the expected increase in LUC emissions, changes in pasture area decrease these emissions because of carbon sequestration in soils.     

A multiyear synthesis of soil respiration responses to elevated atmospheric CO2 from four forest FACE experiments

The rapidly rising concentration of atmospheric CO₂ has the potential to alter forest and global carbon cycles by altering important processes that occur in soil. Forest soils contain the largest and longest lived carbon pools in terrestrial ecosystems and are therefore extremely important to the land–atmosphere exchange of carbon and future climate. Soil respiration is a sensitive integrator of many soil processes that control carbon storage in soil, and is therefore a good metric of changes to soil carbon cycling. Here, we summarize soil respiration data from four forest free‐air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments in developing and established forests that have been exposed to elevated atmospheric [CO₂] (168 μL L^?1 average enrichment) for 2–6 years. The sites have similar experimental design and use similar methodology (closed‐path infrared gas analyzers) to measure soil respiration, but differ in species composition of the respective forest communities. We found that elevated atmospheric [CO₂] stimulated soil respiration at all sites, and this response persisted for up to 6 years. Young developing stands experienced greater stimulation than did more established stands, increasing 39% and 16%, respectively, averaged over all years and communities. Further, at sites that had more than one community, we found that species composition of the dominant trees was a major controller of the absolute soil CO₂ efflux and the degree of stimulation from CO₂ enrichment. Interestingly, we found that the temperature sensitivity of bulk soil respiration appeared to be unaffected by elevated atmospheric CO₂. These findings suggest that stage of stand development and species composition should be explicitly accounted for when extrapolating results from elevated CO₂ experiments or modeling forest and global carbon cycles.     

Nitrous oxide emissions from grass swards during the eighth year of elevated atmospheric pCO2 (Swiss FACE)

Emissions of N₂O were measured during the growth season over a year from grass swards under ambient (360 μL L^?1) and elevated (600 μL L^?1) CO₂ partial pressures at the Free Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experiment, Eschikon, Switzerland. Measurements were made following high (56 g N m^?2 yr^?1) and low (14 g N m^?2 yr^?1) rates of fertilizer application, split over 5 re‐growth periods, to Lolium perenne, Trifolium repens and mixed Lolium/Trifolium swards. Elevated pCO₂ increased annual emissions of N₂O from the high fertilized Lolium and mixed Lolium/Trifolium swards resulting in increases in GWP (N₂O emissions) of 179 and 111 g CO₂ equivalents m^?2, respectively, compared with the GWP of ambient pCO₂ swards, but had no significant effect on annual emissions from Trifolium monoculture swards. The greater emissions from the high fertilized elevated pCO₂Lolium swards were attributed to greater below‐ground C allocation under elevated pCO₂ providing the energy for denitrification in the presence of excess mineral N. An annual emission of 959 mg N₂O‐N m^?2 yr^?1 (1.7% of fertilizer N applied) was measured from the high fertilized Lolium sward under elevated pCO₂. The magnitude of emissions varied throughout the year with 84% of the total emission from the elevated pCO₂Lolium swards measured during the first two re‐growths (April–June 2001). This was associated with higher rainfall and soil water contents at this time of year. Trends in emissions varied between the first two re‐growths (April–June 2001) and the third, fourth and fifth re‐growths (late June–October 2000), with available soil NO₃^? and rainfall explaining 70%, and soil water content explaining 72% of the variability in N₂O in these periods, respectively. Caution is therefore required when extrapolating from short‐term measurements to predict long‐term responses to global climate change. Our findings are of global significance as increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ may, depending on sward composition and fertilizer management, increase greenhouse gas emissions of N₂O, thereby exacerbating the forcing effect of elevated CO₂ on global climate. Our results suggest that when applying high rates of N fertilizer to grassland systems, Trifolium repens swards, or a greater component of Trifolium in mixed swards, may minimize the negative effect of continued increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on global warming.     

Interannual variability in global soil respiration, 1980–94

We used a climate‐driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil‐CO₂ emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil‐to‐atmosphere CO₂ fluxes. The mean annual global soil‐CO₂ flux over this 15‐y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3–81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil‐CO₂ emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil‐CO₂ emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forests contributed more soil‐derived CO₂ to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type (～30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil‐CO₂ emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil‐CO₂ production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO₂ concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands and deserts), interannual variability in soil‐CO₂ emissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil‐CO₂ fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 Pg C y^?1 per °C. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil‐CO₂ emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO₂ emissions from soils.     

On the causes of trends in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2

No consensus has yet been reached on the major factors driving the observed increase in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO₂ in the northern latitudes. In this study, we used atmospheric CO₂ records from 26 northern hemisphere stations with a temporal coverage longer than 15 years, and an atmospheric transport model prescribed with net biome productivity (NBP) from an ensemble of nine terrestrial ecosystem models, to attribute change in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO₂. We found significant (p < .05) increases in seasonal peak‐to‐trough CO₂ amplitude (AMP_P‐T) at nine stations, and in trough‐to‐peak amplitude (AMP_T‐P) at eight stations over the last three decades. Most of the stations that recorded increasing amplitudes are in Arctic and boreal regions (>50°N), consistent with previous observations that the amplitude increased faster at Barrow (Arctic) than at Mauna Loa (subtropics). The multi‐model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows that the response of ecosystem carbon cycling to rising CO₂ concentration (eCO₂) and climate change are dominant drivers of the increase in AMP_P‐T and AMP_T‐P in the high latitudes. At the Barrow station, the observed increase of AMP_P‐T and AMP_T‐P over the last 33 years is explained by eCO₂ (39% and 42%) almost equally than by climate change (32% and 35%). The increased carbon losses during the months with a net carbon release in response to eCO₂ are associated with higher ecosystem respiration due to the increase in carbon storage caused by eCO₂ during carbon uptake period. Air‐sea CO₂ fluxes (10% for AMP_P‐T and 11% for AMP_T‐P) and the impacts of land‐use change (marginally significant 3% for AMP_P‐T and 4% for AMP_T‐P) also contributed to the CO₂ measured at Barrow, highlighting the role of these factors in regulating seasonal changes in the global carbon cycle.     

Isoprene emissions from plants are mediated by atmospheric CO2 concentrations

The tropical African tree species Acacia nigrescens Oliv. was grown in environmentally controlled growth chambers at three CO₂ concentrations representative of the Last Glacial Maximum (～180 ppmv), the present day (～380 ppmv), and likely mid‐21st century (～600 ppmv) CO₂ concentrations. Isoprene (C₅H₈) emissions, per unit leaf area, were greater at lower‐than‐current CO₂ levels and lower at higher‐than‐current CO₂ levels relative to controls grown at 380 ppmv CO₂. Changes in substrate availability and isoprene synthase (IspS) activity were identified as the mechanisms behind the observed leaf‐level emission response. In contrast, canopy‐scale emissions remained unaltered between the treatments as changes in leaf‐level emissions were offset by changes in biomass and leaf area. Substrate concentration and IspS activity‐CO₂ responses were used in a biochemical model, coupled to existing isoprene emission algorithms, to model isoprene emissions from A. nigrescens grown for over 2 years at three different CO₂ concentrations. The addition of the biochemical model allowed for the use of emission factors measured under present day CO₂ concentrations across all three CO₂ treatments. When isoprene emissions were measured from A. nigrescens in response to instantaneous changes in CO₂ concentration, the biochemical model satisfactorily represented the observed response. Therefore, the effect of changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration on isoprene emission at any timescale can be modelled and predicted.     

Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide

Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels’ changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ‐GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained.     

State of the science in reconciling top‐down and bottom‐up approaches for terrestrial CO2 budget

Robust estimates of CO₂ budget, CO₂ exchanged between the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere, are necessary to better understand the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Over the past decade, this field of research has advanced through understanding of the differences and similarities of two fundamentally different approaches: “top‐down” atmospheric inversions and “bottom‐up” biosphere models. Since the first studies were undertaken, these approaches have shown an increasing level of agreement, but disagreements in some regions still persist, in part because they do not estimate the same quantity of atmosphere–biosphere CO₂ exchange. Here, we conducted a thorough comparison of CO₂ budgets at multiple scales and from multiple methods to assess the current state of the science in estimating CO₂ budgets. Our set of atmospheric inversions and biosphere models, which were adjusted for a consistent flux definition, showed a high level of agreement for global and hemispheric CO₂ budgets in the 2000s. Regionally, improved agreement in CO₂ budgets was notable for North America and Southeast Asia. However, large gaps between the two methods remained in East Asia and South America. In other regions, Europe, boreal Asia, Africa, South Asia, and Oceania, it was difficult to determine whether those regions act as a net sink or source because of the large spread in estimates from atmospheric inversions. These results highlight two research directions to improve the robustness of CO₂ budgets: (a) to increase representation of processes in biosphere models that could contribute to fill the budget gaps, such as forest regrowth and forest degradation; and (b) to reduce sink–source compensation between regions (dipoles) in atmospheric inversion so that their estimates become more comparable. Advancements on both research areas will increase the level of agreement between the top‐down and bottom‐up approaches and yield more robust knowledge of regional CO₂ budgets.     

FLUXNET and modelling the global carbon cycle

Measurements of the net CO₂ flux between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere using the eddy covariance technique have the potential to underpin our interpretation of regional CO₂ source–sink patterns, CO₂ flux responses to forcings, and predictions of the future terrestrial C balance. Information contained in FLUXNET eddy covariance data has multiple uses for the development and application of global carbon models, including evaluation/validation, calibration, process parameterization, and data assimilation. This paper reviews examples of these uses, compares global estimates of the dynamics of the global carbon cycle, and suggests ways of improving the utility of such data for global carbon modelling. Net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE) predicted by different terrestrial biosphere models compares favourably with FLUXNET observations at diurnal and seasonal timescales. However, complete model validation, particularly over the full annual cycle, requires information on the balance between assimilation and decomposition processes, information not readily available for most FLUXNET sites. Site history, when known, can greatly help constrain the model‐data comparison. Flux measurements made over four vegetation types were used to calibrate the land‐surface scheme of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model, significantly improving simulated climate and demonstrating the utility of diurnal FLUXNET data for climate modelling. Land‐surface temperatures in many regions cool due to higher canopy conductances and latent heat fluxes, and the spatial distribution of CO₂ uptake provides a significant additional constraint on the realism of simulated surface fluxes. FLUXNET data are used to calibrate a global production efficiency model (PEM). This model is forced by satellite‐measured absorbed radiation and suggests that global net primary production (NPP) increased 6.2% over 1982–1999. Good agreement is found between global trends in NPP estimated by the PEM and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and between the DGVM and estimates of global NEE derived from a global inversion of atmospheric CO₂ measurements. Combining the PEM, DGVM, and inversion results suggests that CO₂ fertilization is playing a major role in current increases in NPP, with lesser impacts from increasing N deposition and growing season length. Both the PEM and the inversion identify the Amazon basin as a key region for the current net terrestrial CO₂ uptake (i.e. 33% of global NEE), as well as its interannual variability. The inversion's global NEE estimate of −1.2 Pg [C] yr⁻¹ for 1982–1995 is compatible with the PEM‐ and DGVM‐predicted trends in NPP. There is, thus, a convergence in understanding derived from process‐based models, remote‐sensing‐based observations, and inversion of atmospheric data. Future advances in field measurement techniques, including eddy covariance (particularly concerning the problem of night‐time fluxes in dense canopies and of advection or flow distortion over complex terrain), will result in improved constraints on land‐atmosphere CO₂ fluxes and the rigorous attribution of mechanisms to the current terrestrial net CO₂ uptake and its spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Global ecosystem models play a fundamental role in linking information derived from FLUXNET measurements to atmospheric CO₂ variability. A number of recommendations concerning FLUXNET data are made, including a request for more comprehensive site data (particularly historical information), more measurements in undisturbed ecosystems, and the systematic provision of error estimates. The greatest value of current FLUXNET data for global carbon cycle modelling is in evaluating process representations, rather than in providing an unbiased estimate of net CO₂ exchange.     

Forest transitions in Eastern Europe and their effects on carbon budgets

Forests often rebound from deforestation following industrialization and urbanization, but for many regions our understanding of where and when forest transitions happened, and how they affected carbon budgets remains poor. One such region is Eastern Europe, where political and socio‐economic conditions changed drastically over the last three centuries, but forest trends have not yet been analyzed in detail. We present a new assessment of historical forest change in the European part of the former Soviet Union and the legacies of these changes on contemporary carbon stocks. To reconstruct forest area, we homogenized statistics at the provincial level for ad 1700–2010 to identify forest transition years and forest trends. We contrast our reconstruction with the KK11 and HYDE 3.1 land change scenarios, and use all three datasets to drive the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model to calculate carbon stock dynamics. Our results revealed that forest transitions in Eastern Europe occurred predominantly in the early 20th century, substantially later than in Western Europe. We also found marked geographic variation in forest transitions, with some areas characterized by relatively stable or continuously declining forest area. Our data suggest extensive deforestation in European Russia already prior to ad 1700, and even greater deforestation in the 18th and 19th centuries than in the KK11 and HYDE scenarios. Based on our reconstruction, cumulative carbon emissions from deforestation were greater before 1700 (60 Pg C) than thereafter (29 Pg C). Summed over our entire study area, forest transitions led to a modest uptake in carbon over recent decades, with our dataset showing the smallest effect (<5.5 Pg C) and a more heterogeneous pattern of source and sink regions. This suggests substantial sequestration potential in regrowing forests of the region, a trend that may be amplified through ongoing land abandonment, climate change, and CO₂ fertilization.