Evaluating the combined effectiveness of influenza control strategies and human preventive behavior

Control strategies enforced by health agencies are a major type of practice to contain influenza outbreaks. Another type of practice is the voluntary preventive behavior of individuals, such as receiving vaccination, taking antiviral drugs, and wearing face masks. These two types of practices take effects concurrently in influenza containment, but little attention has been paid to their combined effectiveness. This article estimates this combined effectiveness using established simulation models in the urbanized area of Buffalo, NY, USA. Three control strategies are investigated, including: Targeted Antiviral Prophylaxis (TAP), workplace/school closure, community travel restriction, as well as the combination of the three. All control strategies are simulated with and without regard to individual preventive behavior, and the resulting effectiveness are compared. The simulation outcomes suggest that weaker control strategies could suffice to contain influenza epidemics, because individuals voluntarily adopt preventive behavior, rendering these weaker strategies more effective than would otherwise have been expected. The preventive behavior of individuals could save medical resources for control strategies and avoid unnecessary socio-economic interruptions. This research adds a human behavioral dimension into the simulation of control strategies and offers new insights into disease containment. Health policy makers are recommended to review current control strategies and comprehend preventive behavior patterns of local populations before making decisions on influenza containment.     

Using Risk Assessment as Part of a Systems Approach to the Control and Prevention of HPAIV H5N1

Since its emergence in China in 1996, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 has spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe. Countries had to promptly implement control and prevention measures. Numerous research and capacity building initiatives were conducted in the affected regions to improve the capacity of national animal health services to support the development of risk-based mitigation strategies. This paper reviews and discusses risk assessments initiated in several South-East Asian and African countries under one of these projects. Despite important data gaps, the risk assessment results improved the ability of policy makers to design appropriate risk management policies. Disease risk was strongly influenced by various human behavioral factors. The ongoing circulation of HPAIV H5N1 in several Asian countries and in Egypt, despite major disease control efforts, supports the need for an interdisciplinary approach to development of tailored risk management policies, in accordance with the EcoHealth paradigm and the broad concept of risk governance. In particular, active stakeholders engagement and integration of economic and social studies into the policy making process are needed to optimize compliance and sustainable behavioral changes, thereby increasing the effectiveness of mitigation strategies.     

Learning from history, predicting the future: the UK Dutch elm disease outbreak in relation to contemporary tree disease threats

Expanding international trade and increased transportation are heavily implicated in the growing threat posed by invasive pathogens to biodiversity and landscapes. With trees and woodland in the UK now facing threats from a number of disease systems, this paper looks to historical experience with the Dutch elm disease (DED) epidemic of the 1970s to see what can be learned about an outbreak and attempts to prevent, manage and control it. The paper draws on an interdisciplinary investigation into the history, biology and policy of the epidemic. It presents a reconstruction based on a spatial modelling exercise underpinned by archival research and interviews with individuals involved in the attempted management of the epidemic at the time. The paper explores what, if anything, might have been done to contain the outbreak and discusses the wider lessons for plant protection. Reading across to present-day biosecurity concerns, the paper looks at the current outbreak of ramorum blight in the UK and presents an analysis of the unfolding epidemiology and policy of this more recent, and potentially very serious, disease outbreak. The paper concludes by reflecting on the continuing contemporary relevance of the DED experience at an important juncture in the evolution of plant protection policy.     

Mathematical models for the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Aedes aegypti</Emphasis> dispersal dynamics: Travelling waves by wing and wind

Biological invasion is an important area of research in mathematical biology and more so if it concerns species which are vectors for diseases threatening the public health of large populations. That is certainly the case for Aedes aegypti and the dengue epidemics in South America. Without the prospect of an effective and cheap vaccine in the near future, any feasible public policy for controlling the dengue epidemics in tropical climates must necessarily include appropriate strategies for minimizing the mosquito population factor. The present paper discusses some mathematical models designed to describe A. aegypti’s vital and dispersal dynamics, aiming to highlight practical procedures for the minimization of its impact as a dengue vector. A continuous model including diffusion and advection shows the existence of a stable travelling wave in many situations and a numerical study relates the wavefront speed to a few crucial parameters. Strategies for invasion containment and its prediction based on measurable parameters are analysed.     

Biodiversity on the brink: Evaluating a transdisciplinary research collaboration

Global biodiversity is facing an extinction crisis. Australia has one of the highest terrestrial species extinction rates in the world. Scientists, policy advisors and governments have recommended that the issue be addressed at a landscape-scale, while noting that there are significant knowledge gaps that are hampering implementation of such an approach. From 2011–2015, the Australian Government funded a transdisciplinary research program, the Landscapes and Policy Hub, to meet this need. Transdisciplinary research is widely acknowledged as essential to address the complexity of contemporary environmental problems. Given that such research programs are in their infancy, it is important to evaluate their efficacy and provide an empirical basis for improving their design. This paper presents an evaluation of the strategies fostering transdisciplinarity adopted by the Landscapes and Policy Hub. A heavy emphasis on communication, with skilled knowledge brokering, regular face-to-face meetings using participatory activities and shared field engagements enhanced transdisciplinary interaction between researchers and research users. However, establishing a fully integrated interdisciplinary research program remained a challenge. Efforts to enable shared conceptual frameworks to emerge through adaptive application of theory in practice could have been balanced with increased effort at the outset for researchers and research users to collaboratively formulate shared research questions, leading to the establishment of teams that could address these questions through cross-mobilisation of interdisciplinary expertise.     

Germs, genomics and global public health

Scientific and technological advances derived from the genomics revolution have a central role to play in dealing with continuing infectious disease threats in the developing world caused by emerging and re-emerging pathogens. These techniques, coupled with increasing knowledge of host-pathogen interactions, can assist in the early identification and containment of outbreaks as well as in the development of preventive vaccination and therapeutic interventions, including the urgent need for new antibiotics. However, the effective application of genomics technologies faces key barriers and challenges which occur at three stages: from the research to the products, from the products to individual patients, and, finally, from patients to entire populations. There needs to be an emphasis on research in areas of greatest need, in facilitating the translation of research into interventions and, finally, the effective delivery of such interventions to those in greatest need. Ultimate success will depend on bringing together science, society and policy to develop effective public health implementation strategies to provide health security and health equity for all peoples.     

Integrating natural and social science perspectives on plant disease risk, management and policy formulation

Plant diseases threaten both food security and the botanical diversity of natural ecosystems. Substantial research effort is focused on pathogen detection and control, with detailed risk management available for many plant diseases. Risk can be assessed using analytical techniques that account for disease pressure both spatially and temporally. We suggest that such technical assessments of disease risk may not provide an adequate guide to the strategies undertaken by growers and government to manage plant disease. Instead, risk-management strategies need to account more fully for intuitive and normative responses that act to balance conflicting interests between stakeholder organizations concerned with plant diseases within the managed and natural environments. Modes of effective engagement between policy makers and stakeholders are explored in the paper, together with an assessment of such engagement in two case studies of contemporary non-indigenous diseases in one food and in one non-food sector. Finally, a model is proposed for greater integration of stakeholders in policy decisions.     

Infectious diseases of animals and plants: an interdisciplinary approach

Animal and plant diseases pose a serious and continuing threat to food security, food safety, national economies, biodiversity and the rural environment. New challenges, including climate change, regulatory developments, changes in the geographical concentration and size of livestock holdings, and increasing trade make this an appropriate time to assess the state of knowledge about the impact that diseases have and the ways in which they are managed and controlled. In this paper, the case is explored for an interdisciplinary approach to studying the management of infectious animal and plant diseases. Reframing the key issues through incorporating both social and natural science research can provide a holistic understanding of disease and increase the policy relevance and impact of research. Finally, in setting out the papers in this Theme Issue, a picture of current and future animal and plant disease threats is presented.     

Pharmacogenetics and uncertainty: implications for policy makers

Uncertainty for policy makers is not new but the pressure to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty is perhaps greater than ever. The arrival of new scientific developments such as pharmacogenetics offers potentially great benefits (as well as significant risks). They have passionate supporters as well as doubters. The evidence is often extensive but unclear and policy makers may find themselves under pressure to make decisions before they feel that the evidence is compelling. The UK is particularly well placed to play a leading role in the development of pharmacogenetics and is equally well placed to derive the benefits to both health and wealth that could flow from this. However, the uncertainties threaten to overwhelm the capacity of policy makers to act effectively. The uncertainties are both about the context within which the science and delivery of pharmacogenetics is being developed and about the interests that could be served. This paper maps these uncertainties and concludes with some suggestions, drawing on deliberative democracy and futures thinking, as to how policy makers might manage the tensions and dilemmas they face by moving from an unstable, emergent policy arena to a more stable one.     

我国生物多样性保护自然-社会科学交叉融合与发展

保护科学前沿研究重视克服单一学科的局限而向超越自然科学和社会科学跨学科交叉融合转型。基于世界自然保护联盟-世界保护区委员会(IUCN-WCPA)自然保护地管理有效性框架,从规划制定、执行和评估三个方面系统梳理了我国保护科学的研究进展,分析了保护自然科学和社会科学在研究内容、方法和视角等方面的差异,识别出潜在的跨学科综合研究领域。结果表明,我国保护自然科学与社会科学研究大多相互独立、缺乏融合协作,少有的跨学科研究在整体性、系统性、兼容性、深入性和规范性上有待提高。自然科学家在介入社会科学研究时缺乏对现实制度的科学理解,所提出的保护政策和行动建议偏向理想主义,阻碍保护科学跨学科知识生产;社会科学家则缺乏自然科学方法和数据的知识积累,所提出的政策和行动建议脱离事实和证据,偏向主观主义,不利于保护科学知识进步。为此,构建了基于自然保护地适应性管理逻辑下的保护科学跨学科整合框架,以推动保护科学共同话语的形成,实现社会与生态的耦合协调发展。     

安全转基因技术研究进展

转基因生物安全性问题已引起了公众的普遍担忧,严重制约了转基因技术成果的推广应用。近年来,研究者探索了不同的技术策略来解决转基因生物的安全性问题,安全转基因技术成为当前转基因研究的热点之一。文章介绍并评价了几种主要的安全转基因技术,包括无选择性标记基因技术、安全标记基因技术、叶绿体转化技术、终止子技术、雄性不育技术、外源基因删除技术。其中,外源基因删除技术为实现转基因生物的安全应用展示了诱人的前景。最后,对探索新的安全转基因技术策略保障转基因生物安全提出了建议。     

The essential elements of science and management in coastal environmental managements

Coastal environmental management requires timely and appropriate policy, management and technological interventions to address a host of interrelated environmental problems arising from unplanned and unregulated coastal developments. These interventions can only be effective if they are based on sound scientific (including socioeconomic) information. Thus, science plays a significant role in the environmental management of coastal and marine areas. This paper highlights the essential components of environmental coastal management that require scientific interventions, particularly in providing the scientific basis for policy interventions, and preventive and/or mitigating measures. The integration and packaging of scientific information for management actions require an interdisciplinary effort to address identified management problems. Scientific research should respond to management needs and make contributions to the better understanding of ecosystems and their responses to human interventions. Scientific information urgently required for management includes an understanding of interactions in coastal resource systems, identification, evaluation and prioritization of management issues, management strategies and actions, and development of methodologies and tools for environmental management. Obstacles to management-oriented research have also been identified to include defective perception among scientists, defective communication between scientists and decision makers, intellectual and cultural arrogance, and inadequate technical and management capability at the local level. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A Procedure for Life-Cycle-Based Solid Waste Management with Consideration of Uncertainty

The development of integrated solid-waste management (SWM) strategies that are efficient with respect to both cost and environmental performance is a complex task. It must incorporate the numerous interrelations among different unit operations in the solid waste system (e.g., collection, recycling, and combustion), and the large number of design parameters that affect estimates of cost and environmental emissions. Uncertainty in design and operational parameters can lead to uncertainty in the estimates of cost and emissions. This article describes an extension of the capability of the Integrated Solid Waste Management Decision Support Tool (ISWM DST) to enable consideration of the effects of uncertainty in input parameters. The uncertainty analysis capability is illustrated using a hypothetical case study of a typical municipality. Results show that increased expenditure does not necessarily result in a reduction in the expected levels of environmental emissions and that some SWM alternatives may be more robust, although deterministic estimates of their expected performances are similar. The uncertainty analysis also facilitates use of the ISWM DST by policy makers responsible for evaluation of the expected effect of SWM practices on, for example, greenhouse-gas emissions.     

Approaches to valuing plant medicines: the economics of culture or the culture of economics?

This paper explores the scope and limitations of the economic valuation of biodiversity. How and why is this a useful exercise, but in what way is its usefulness constrained? These issues are discussed with particular reference to cultural values within the context of medicinal plants and phytopharmaceutical development. It is argued that whilst economic valuation is an extremely important and necessary aid to formulating conservation policy, it probably is not that informative about the motivations of people in their use of certain natural resources. This is especially true for the case of medicinal plants where belief systems about the causes of disease and therefore strategies for healing are important. The paper reviews studies which have attempted to put monetary values on medicinal plants and the option values of pharmaceuticals developed from plants, and discusses the applicability of the various approaches. The implications for conservation policy, and for likely collaboration between social and natural scientists is discussed.     

Predicting the benefits of banana bunchy top virus exclusion from commercial plantations in australia

Benefit cost analysis is a tried and tested analytical framework that can clearly communicate likely net changes in producer welfare from investment decisions to diverse stakeholder audiences. However, in a plant biosecurity context, it is often difficult to predict policy benefits over time due to complex biophysical interactions between invasive species, their hosts, and the environment. In this paper, we demonstrate how a break-even style benefit cost analysis remains highly relevant to biosecurity decision-makers using the example of banana bunchy top virus, a plant pathogen targeted for eradication from banana growing regions of Australia. We develop an analytical approach using a stratified diffusion spread model to simulate the likely benefits of exclusion of this virus from commercial banana plantations over time relative to a nil management scenario in which no surveillance or containment activities take place. Using Monte Carlo simulation to generate a range of possible future incursion scenarios, we predict the exclusion benefits of the disease will avoid Aus$15.9-27.0 million in annual losses for the banana industry. For these exclusion benefits to be reduced to zero would require a bunchy top re-establishment event in commercial banana plantations three years in every four. Sensitivity analysis indicates that exclusion benefits can be greatly enhanced through improvements in disease surveillance and incursion response.     

Key factors and related principles in the conservation of large African carnivores

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