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1.
The northern American Southwest provides one of the most well-documented cases of human population growth and decline in the world. The geographic extent of this decline in North America is unknown owing to the lack of high-resolution palaeodemographic data from regions across and beyond the greater Southwest, where archaeological radiocarbon data are often the only available proxy for investigating these palaeodemographic processes. Radiocarbon time series across and beyond the greater Southwest suggest widespread population collapses from AD 1300 to 1600. However, radiocarbon data have potential biases caused by variable radiocarbon sample preservation, sample collection and the nonlinearity of the radiocarbon calibration curve. In order to be confident in the wider trends seen in radiocarbon time series across and beyond the greater Southwest, here we focus on regions that have multiple palaeodemographic proxies and compare those proxies to radiocarbon time series. We develop a new method for time series analysis and comparison between dendrochronological data and radiocarbon data. Results confirm a multiple proxy decline in human populations across the Upland US Southwest, Central Mesa Verde and Northern Rio Grande from AD 1300 to 1600. These results lend confidence to single proxy radiocarbon-based reconstructions of palaeodemography outside the Southwest that suggest post-AD 1300 population declines in many parts of North America.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography’.  相似文献   

2.
Taiwan currently has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, leading to projections of rapid population ageing and decline. In common with other territories in Pacific Asia, policies designed to support childbearing have recently been introduced. Some optimism for the future success of these policies has been drawn from the fact that the ‘ideal’ number of children stated in Taiwanese surveys is over two. In this way, Taiwan appears to fit the ‘two-child norm’ model identified for Europe and North America. Furthermore, this feature has led commentators to state that Taiwan is not in a ‘low fertility trap’–where positive feedback mechanisms emanating from the normalisation of small families, slow economic growth and ageing/declining population mean attempts to increase fertility become ever less likely to succeed. Using a recent national representative survey, and arguing that ‘intentions’ are a more reliable guide to understanding the circumstances of family formation, this paper explores fertility intentions in Taiwan with a special focus on women at parity one and parity two. This will form the first full-length examination of fertility intentions in Taiwan published in English and one of the few studies of Pacific Asia that reports a micro-level analysis. We argue that using intentions should provide a better ‘barometer’ of attitudes towards childbearing in Taiwan, and that through micro-level analysis, we can better identify the predictors of intentions that could, in turn, provide useful clues both for projections as well as shaping policy responses. While we found some evidence for a ‘two-child norm’ among childless women, this could be an unrealistic ideal. This is supported by the fact that a majority of women with one child do not intend to have another.  相似文献   

3.
This paper responds to a resurgence of interest in constructing long-term time proxies of human activity, especially but not limited to models of population change over the Pleistocene and/or Holocene. While very much agreeing with the need for this increased attention, we emphasize three important issues that can all be thought of as modifiable reporting unit problems: the impact of (i) archaeological periodization, (ii) uneven event durations and (iii) geographical nucleation-dispersal phenomena. Drawing inspiration from real-world examples from prehistoric Britain, Greece and Japan, we explore their consequences and possible mitigation via a reproducible set of tactical simulations.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography’.  相似文献   

4.

Background

In their 2005 study, Adamic and Glance coined the memorable phrase ‘divided they blog’, referring to a trend of cyberbalkanization in the political blogosphere, with liberal and conservative blogs tending to link to other blogs with a similar political slant, and not to one another. As political discussion and activity increasingly moves online, the power of framing political discourses is shifting from mass media to social media.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Continued examination of political interactions online is critical, and we extend this line of research by examining the activities of political users within the Wikipedia community. First, we examined how users in Wikipedia choose to display their political affiliation. Next, we analyzed the patterns of cross-party interaction and community participation among those users proclaiming a political affiliation. In contrast to previous analyses of other social media, we did not find strong trends indicating a preference to interact with members of the same political party within the Wikipedia community.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results indicate that users who proclaim their political affiliation within the community tend to proclaim their identity as a ‘Wikipedian’ even more loudly. It seems that the shared identity of ‘being Wikipedian’ may be strong enough to triumph over other potentially divisive facets of personal identity, such as political affiliation.  相似文献   

5.
Although population history and dispersal are back at the forefront of the archaeological agenda, they are often studied in relative isolation. This contribution aims at combining both dimensions, as population dispersal is, by definition, a demographic process. Using a case study drawn from the Early Neolithic of South-Eastern Europe, we use radiocarbon dates to jointly investigate changes in speed and population size linked to the new food production economy and demonstrate that the spread of farming in this region corresponds to a density-dependent dispersal process. The implications of this characterization are evaluated in the discussion.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography’.  相似文献   

6.
Increased risk of infectious disease is assumed to be a major cost of group living, yet empirical evidence for this effect is mixed. We studied whether larger social groups are more subdivided structurally. If so, the social subdivisions that form in larger groups may act as barriers to the spread of infection, weakening the association between group size and infectious disease. To investigate this ‘social bottleneck’ hypothesis, we examined the association between group size and four network structure metrics in 43 vertebrate and invertebrate species. We focused on metrics involving modularity, clustering, distance and centralization. In a meta-analysis of intraspecific variation in social networks, modularity showed positive associations with network size, with a weaker but still positive effect in cross-species analyses. Network distance also showed a positive association with group size when using intraspecific variation. We then used a theoretical model to explore the effects of subgrouping relative to other effects that influence disease spread in socially structured populations. Outbreaks reached higher prevalence when groups were larger, but subgrouping reduced prevalence. Subgrouping also acted as a ‘brake’ on disease spread between groups. We suggest research directions to understand the conditions under which larger groups become more subdivided, and to devise new metrics that account for subgrouping when investigating the links between sociality and infectious disease risk.  相似文献   

7.
Children in dentistry are traditionally described in terms of medical diagnosis and prevalence of oral disease. This approach gives little information regarding a child’s capacity to maintain oral health or regarding the social determinants of oral health. The biopsychosocial approach, embodied in the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health - Child and Youth version (ICF-CY) (WHO), provides a wider picture of a child’s real-life experience, but practical tools for the application of this model are lacking. This article describes the preliminary empirical study necessary for development of such a tool - an ICF-CY Core Set for Oral Health. An ICF-CY questionnaire was used to identify the medical, functional, social and environmental context of 218 children and adolescents referred to special care or paediatric dental services in France, Sweden, Argentina and Ireland (mean age 8 years ±3.6yrs). International Classification of Disease (ICD-10) diagnoses included disorders of the nervous system (26.1%), Down syndrome (22.0%), mental retardation (17.0%), autistic disorders (16.1%), and dental anxiety alone (11.0%). The most frequently impaired items in the ICF Body functions domain were ‘Intellectual functions’, ‘High-level cognitive functions’, and ‘Attention functions’. In the Activities and Participation domain, participation restriction was frequently reported for 25 items including ‘Handling stress’, ‘Caring for body parts’, ‘Looking after one’s health’ and ‘Speaking’. In the Environment domain, facilitating items included ‘Support of friends’, ‘Attitude of friends’ and ‘Support of immediate family’. One item was reported as an environmental barrier – ‘Societal attitudes’. The ICF-CY can be used to highlight common profiles of functioning, activities, participation and environment shared by children in relation to oral health, despite widely differing medical, social and geographical contexts. The results of this empirical study might be used to develop an ICF-CY Core Set for Oral Health - a holistic but practical tool for clinical and epidemiological use.  相似文献   

8.

Objective

Treatment in the ultra-high risk stage for a psychotic episode is critical to the course of symptoms. Markers for the development of psychosis have been studied, to optimize the detection of people at risk of psychosis. One possible marker for the transition to psychosis is social cognition. To estimate effect sizes for social cognition based on a quantitative integration of the published evidence, we conducted a meta-analysis of social cognitive performance in people at ultra high risk (UHR).

Methods

A literature search (1970-July 2015) was performed in PubMed, PsychINFO, Medline, Embase, and ISI Web of Science, using the search terms ‘social cognition’, ‘theory of mind’, ‘emotion recognition’, ‘attributional style’, ‘social knowledge’, ‘social perception’, ‘empathy’, ‘at risk mental state’, ‘clinical high risk’, ‘psychosis prodrome’, and ‘ultra high risk’. The pooled effect size (Cohen’s D) and the effect sizes for each domain of social cognition were calculated. A random effects model with 95% confidence intervals was used.

Results

Seventeen studies were included in the analysis. The overall significant effect was of medium magnitude (d = 0.52, 95% Cl = 0.38–0.65). No moderator effects were found for age, gender and sample size. Sub-analyses demonstrated that individuals in the UHR phase show significant moderate deficits in affect recognition and affect discrimination in faces as well as in voices and in verbal Theory of Mind (TOM). Due to an insufficient amount of studies, we did not calculate an effect size for attributional bias and social perception/ knowledge. A majority of studies did not find a correlation between social cognition deficits and transition to psychosis, which may suggest that social cognition in general is not a useful marker for the development of psychosis. However some studies suggest the possible predictive value of verbal TOM and the recognition of specific emotions in faces for the transition into psychosis. More research is needed on these subjects.

Conclusion

The published literature indicates consistent general impairments in social cognition in people in the UHR phase, but only very specific impairments seem to predict transition to psychosis.  相似文献   

9.
Ravens (Corvus corax) feed primarily on rich but ephemeral carcasses of large animals, which are usually defended by territorial pairs of adults. Non-breeding juveniles forage socially and aggregate in communal winter roosts, and these appear to function as ‘information centers’ regarding the location of the rare food bonanzas: individuals search independently of one another and pool their effort by recruiting each other at roosts. However, at a large raven roost in Newborough on Anglesey, North Wales, some juveniles have been observed recently to forage in ‘gangs’ and to roost separately from other birds. Here we adapt a general model of juvenile common raven foraging behavior where, in addition to the typical co-operative foraging strategy, such gang foraging behavior could be evolutionarily stable near winter raven roosts. We refocus the model on the conditions under which this newly documented, yet theoretically anticipated, gang-based foraging has been observed. In the process, we show formally how the trade off between search efficiency and social opportunity can account for the existence of the alternative social foraging tactics that have been observed in this species. This work serves to highlight a number of fruitful avenues for future research, both from a theoretical and empirical perspective.  相似文献   

10.
Human populations are arranged in social networks that determine interactions and influence the spread of diseases, behaviours and ideas. We evaluate the spread of long-term emotional states across a social network. We introduce a novel form of the classical susceptible–infected–susceptible disease model which includes the possibility for ‘spontaneous’ (or ‘automatic’) infection, in addition to disease transmission (the SISa model). Using this framework and data from the Framingham Heart Study, we provide formal evidence that positive and negative emotional states behave like infectious diseases spreading across social networks over long periods of time. The probability of becoming content is increased by 0.02 per year for each content contact, and the probability of becoming discontent is increased by 0.04 per year per discontent contact. Our mathematical formalism allows us to derive various quantities from the data, such as the average lifetime of a contentment ‘infection’ (10 years) or discontentment ‘infection’ (5 years). Our results give insight into the transmissive nature of positive and negative emotional states. Determining to what extent particular emotions or behaviours are infectious is a promising direction for further research with important implications for social science, epidemiology and health policy. Our model provides a theoretical framework for studying the interpersonal spread of any state that may also arise spontaneously, such as emotions, behaviours, health states, ideas or diseases with reservoirs.  相似文献   

11.
Hunter–gatherer population growth rate estimates extracted from archaeological proxies and ethnographic data show remarkable differences, as archaeological estimates are orders of magnitude smaller than ethnographic and historical estimates. This could imply that prehistoric hunter–gatherers were demographically different from recent hunter–gatherers. However, we show that the resolution of archaeological human population proxies is not sufficiently high to detect actual population dynamics and growth rates that can be observed in the historical and ethnographic data. We argue that archaeological and ethnographic population growth rates measure different things; therefore, they are not directly comparable. While ethnographic growth rate estimates of hunter–gatherer populations are directly linked to underlying demographic parameters, archaeological estimates track changes in the long-term mean population size, which reflects changes in the environmental productivity that provide the ultimate constraint for forager population growth. We further argue that because of this constraining effect, hunter–gatherer populations cannot exhibit long-term growth independently of increasing environmental productivity.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography’.  相似文献   

12.
Leaking of confidential material is a major threat to information security within organizations and to society as a whole. This insight has gained traction in the political realm since the activities of Wikileaks, which hopes to attack ‘unjust’ systems or ‘conspiracies’. Eventually, such threats to information security rely on a biologistic argument on the benefits and drawbacks that uncontrolled leaking might pose for ‘just’ and ‘unjust’ entities. Such biological metaphors are almost exclusively based on the economic advantage of participants. Here, I introduce a mathematical model of the complex dynamics implied by leaking. The complex interactions of adversaries are modeled by coupled logistic equations including network effects of econo-communication networks. The modeling shows, that there might arise situations where the leaking envisioned and encouraged by Wikileaks and the like can strengthen the defending entity (the ‘conspiracy’). In particular, the only severe impact leaking can have on an organization seems to originate in the exploitation of leaks by another entity the organization competes with. Therefore, the model suggests that leaks can be used as a `tactical mean’ in direct adversary relations, but do not necessarily increase public benefit and societal immunization to ‘conspiracies’. Furthermore, within the model the exploitation of the (open) competition between entities seems to be a more promising approach to control malicious organizations : divide-et-impera policies triumph here.  相似文献   

13.
The Natura 2000 network is regarded as one of the conservation success stories in the global effort to protect biodiversity. However, significant challenges remain in Natura 2000 implementation, owing to its rapid expansion, and lack of a coherent vision for its future. Scientific research is critical for identifying conservation priorities, setting management goals, and reconciling biodiversity protection and society in the complex political European landscape. Thus, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive evaluation of published Natura 2000 research to highlight prevalent research themes, disciplinary approaches, and spatial entities. We conducted a systematic review of 572 scientific articles and conference proceedings focused on Natura 2000 research, published between 1996 and 2014. We grouped these articles into ‘ecological’ and ‘social and policy’ categories. Using a novel application of network analysis of article keywords, we found that Natura 2000 research forms a cohesive small-world network, owing to the emphasis on ecological research (79% of studies, with a strong focus on spatial conservation planning), and the underrepresentation of studies addressing ‘social and policy’ issues (typically focused on environmental impact assessment, multi-level governance, agri-environment policy, and ecosystem services valuation). ‘Ecological’ and ‘social and policy’ research shared only general concepts (e.g., Natura 2000, Habitats Directive) suggesting a disconnection between these disciplines. The UK and the Mediterranean basin countries dominated Natura 2000 research, and there was a weak correlation between number of studies and proportion of national territory protected. Approximately 40% of ‘social and policy’ research and 26% of ‘ecological’ studies highlighted negative implications of Natura 2000, while 21% of studies found positive social and biodiversity effects. We emphasize the need for designing inter- and transdisciplinary research in order to promote a social-ecological understanding of Natura 2000, and advance EU conservation policies.  相似文献   

14.

Background

We focused on whether changes in the occupational status of older male adults can be influenced by social engagement and health status measured at the baseline.

Methods

This study used a sample of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (KLoSA), and the study population was restricted to 1.531 men who were aged 55 to 80 years at the 2006 baseline survey and participated in the second survey in 2008. Social engagement and health status, measured by the number of chronic diseases, grip strength, and depressive symptoms as well as covariates (age, marital status, educational level, and household income) were based on data from the 2006 baseline survey. Occupational engagement over the first and second survey was divided into four categories: ‘consistently employed’ (n = 892), ‘employed-unemployed’ (n = 152), ‘unemployed-employed’ (n = 138), and ‘consistently unemployed’ (n = 349).

Results

In the multinomial model, the ‘consistently employed’ and ‘unemployed-employed’ groups had significantly higher social engagement (1.19 and 1.32 times, respectively) than the referent. The number of chronic diseases was significantly associated with four occupational changes, and the ‘unemployed-employed’ had the fewest chronic conditions.

Conclusion

Our finding suggests that social engagement and health status are likely to affect opportunities to continue working or to start working for older male adults.  相似文献   

15.
Theory predicts that sperm competition will generate sexual conflict that favours increased ovum defences against polyspermy. A recent study on house mice has shown that ovum resistance to fertilization coevolves in response to increased sperm fertilizing capacity. However, the capacity for the female gamete to adjust its fertilizability as a strategic response to sperm competition risk has never, to our knowledge, been studied. We sourced house mice (Mus domesticus) from natural populations that differ in the level of sperm competition and sperm fertilizing capacity, and manipulated the social experience of females during their sexual development to simulate conditions of either a future ‘risk’ or ‘no risk’ of sperm competition. Consistent with coevolutionary predictions, we found lower fertilization rates in ova produced by females from a high sperm competition population compared with ova from a low sperm competition population, indicating that these populations are divergent in the fertilizability of their ova. More importantly, females exposed to a ‘risk’ of sperm competition produced ova that had greater resistance to fertilization than ova produced by females reared in an environment with ‘no risk’. Consequently, we show that variation in sperm competition risk during development generates phenotypic plasticity in ova fertilizability, which allows females to prepare for prevailing conditions during their reproductive life.  相似文献   

16.
Low-cost, high throughput genotyping methods are crucial to marker discovery and marker-assisted breeding efforts, but have not been available for many ‘specialty crops’ such as fruit and nut trees. Here we apply the Genotyping-By-Sequencing (GBS) method developed for cereals to the discovery of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a peach F2 mapping population. Peach is a genetic and genomic model within the Rosaceae and will provide a template for the use of this method with other members of this family. Our F2 mapping population of 57 genotypes segregates for bloom time (BD) and chilling requirement (CR) and we have extensively phenotyped this population. The population derives from a selfed F1 progeny of a cross between ‘Hakuho’ (high CR) and ‘UFGold’ (low CR). We were able to successfully employ GBS and the TASSEL GBS pipeline without modification of the original methodology using the ApeKI restriction enzyme and multiplexing at an equivalent of 96 samples per Illumina HiSeq 2000 lane. We obtained hundreds of SNP markers which were then used to construct a genetic linkage map and identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) for BD and CR.  相似文献   

17.

Objectives

This study aimed to investigate longitudinal relations between leisure and social activities and mental health status, considering the presence or absence of other persons in the activity as an additional variable, among middle-aged adults in Japan. This study used nationally representative data in Japan with a five-year follow-up period.

Methods

This study focused on 16,642 middle-aged adults, age 50–59 at baseline, from a population-based, six-year panel survey conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. To investigate the relations between two leisure activities (‘hobbies or cultural activities’ and ‘exercise or sports’) and four social activities (‘community events’, ‘support for children’, ‘support for elderly individuals’ and ‘other social activities’) at baseline and mental health status at follow-up, multiple logistic regression analysis was used. We also used multiple logistic regression analysis to investigate the association between ways of participating in these activities (‘by oneself’, ‘with others’, or ‘both’ (both ‘by oneself’ and ‘with others’)) at baseline and mental health status at follow-up.

Results

Involvement in both leisure activity categories, but not in social activities, was significantly and positively related to mental health status in both men and women.Furthermore, in men, both ‘hobbies or cultural activities’ and ‘exercise or sports’ were significantly related to mental health status only when conducted ‘with others’. In women, the effects of ‘hobbies or cultural activities’ on mental health status were no differences regardless of the ways of participating, while the result of ‘exercise or sports’ was same as that in men.

Conclusions

Leisure activities appear to benefit mental health status among this age group, whereas specific social activities do not. Moreover, participation in leisure activities would be effective especially if others are present. These findings should be useful for preventing the deterioration of mental health status in middle-aged adults in Japan.  相似文献   

18.
Recent climate change has triggered profound reorganization in northeast Atlantic ecosystems, with substantial impact on the distribution of marine assemblages from plankton to fishes. However, assessing the repercussions on apex marine predators remains a challenging issue, especially for pelagic species. In this study, we use Bayesian coalescent modelling of microsatellite variation to track the population demographic history of one of the smallest temperate cetaceans, the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in European waters. Combining genetic inferences with palaeo-oceanographic and historical records provides strong evidence that populations of harbour porpoises have responded markedly to the recent climate-driven reorganization in the eastern North Atlantic food web. This response includes the isolation of porpoises in Iberian waters from those further north only approximately 300 years ago with a predominant northward migration, contemporaneous with the warming trend underway since the ‘Little Ice Age’ period and with the ongoing retreat of cold-water fishes from the Bay of Biscay. The extinction or exodus of harbour porpoises from the Mediterranean Sea (leaving an isolated relict population in the Black Sea) has lacked a coherent explanation. The present results suggest that the fragmentation of harbour distribution range in the Mediterranean Sea was triggered during the warm ‘Mid-Holocene Optimum’ period (approx. 5000 years ago), by the end of the post-glacial nutrient-rich ‘Sapropel’ conditions that prevailed before that time.  相似文献   

19.
Larval dispersal can connect distant subpopulations, with important implications for marine population dynamics and persistence, biodiversity conservation and fisheries management. However, different dispersal pathways may affect the final phenotypes, and thus the performance and fitness of individuals that settle into subpopulations. Using otolith microchemical signatures that are indicative of ‘dispersive’ larvae (oceanic signatures) and ‘non-dispersive’ larvae (coastal signatures), we explore the population-level consequences of dispersal-induced variability in phenotypic mixtures for the common triplefin (a small reef fish). We evaluate lipid concentration and otolith microstructure and find that ‘non-dispersive’ larvae (i) have greater and less variable lipid reserves at settlement (and this variability attenuates at a slower rate), (ii) grow faster after settlement, and (iii) experience similar carry-over benefits of lipid reserves on post-settlement growth relative to ‘dispersive’ larvae. We then explore the consequences of phenotypic mixtures in a metapopulation model with two identical subpopulations replenished by variable contributions of ‘dispersive’ and ‘non-dispersive’ larvae and find that the resulting phenotypic mixtures can have profound effects on the size of the metapopulation. We show that, depending upon the patterns of connectivity, phenotypic mixtures can lead to larger metapopulations, suggesting dispersal-induced demographic heterogeneity may facilitate metapopulation persistence.  相似文献   

20.
Pigeon ‘milk’ and mammalian milk have functional similarities in terms of nutritional benefit and delivery of immunoglobulins to the young. Mammalian milk has been clearly shown to aid in the development of the immune system and microbiota of the young, but similar effects have not yet been attributed to pigeon ‘milk’. Therefore, using a chicken model, we investigated the effect of pigeon ‘milk’ on immune gene expression in the Gut Associated Lymphoid Tissue (GALT) and on the composition of the caecal microbiota. Chickens fed pigeon ‘milk’ had a faster rate of growth and a better feed conversion ratio than control chickens. There was significantly enhanced expression of immune-related gene pathways and interferon-stimulated genes in the GALT of pigeon ‘milk’-fed chickens. These pathways include the innate immune response, regulation of cytokine production and regulation of B cell activation and proliferation. The caecal microbiota of pigeon ‘milk’-fed chickens was significantly more diverse than control chickens, and appears to be affected by prebiotics in pigeon ‘milk’, as well as being directly seeded by bacteria present in pigeon ‘milk’. Our results demonstrate that pigeon ‘milk’ has further modes of action which make it functionally similar to mammalian milk. We hypothesise that pigeon ‘lactation’ and mammalian lactation evolved independently but resulted in similarly functional products.  相似文献   

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