How can maladaptive habitat choice generate source‐sink population dynamics?

Several theoretical models have been proposed to describe population dynamics in a spatially heterogeneous environment. The source-sink model is among the most popular. Diffendorfer recently summarized its assumptions and predictions. Given the model reviewed, he argued that source-sink population dynamics arises if dispersal is somehow constrained. I offer an additional mechanism by suggesting that source-sink population dynamics can be generated by anthropogenic changes in landscapes that occur so quickly that organisms no longer make optimal habitat selection decisions. Individuals select the same habitats as their ancestors but these decisions no longer provide high fitness because of human-induced changes in habitat quality, such as increased rates of predation and/or parasitism. Provided that some of the habitats selected are turned by human-induced changes into sink habitats, source-sink population dynamics can emerge.     

Viability analyses with habitat-based metapopulation models

Population viability analysis (PVA) models incorporate spatial dynamics in different ways. At one extreme are the occupancy models that are based on the number of occupied populations. The simplest occupancy models ignore the location of populations. At the other extreme are individual-based models, which describe the spatial structure with the location of each individual in the population, or the location of territories or home ranges. In between these are spatially structured metapopulation models that describe the dynamics of each population with structured demographic models and incorporate spatial dynamics by modeling dispersal and temporal correlation among populations. Both dispersal and correlation between each pair of populations depend on the location of the populations, making these models spatially structured. In this article, I describe a method that expands spatially structured metapopulation models by incorporating information about habitat relationships of the species and the characteristics of the landscape in which the metapopulation exists. This method uses a habitat suitability map to determine the spatial structure of the metapopulation, including the number, size, and location of habitat patches in which subpopulations of the metapopulation live. The habitat suitability map can be calculated in a number of different ways, including statistical analyses (such as logistic regression) that find the relationship between the occurrence (or, density) of the species and independent variables which describe its habitat requirements. The habitat suitability map is then used to calculate the spatial structure of the metapopulation, based on species-specific characteristics such as the home range size, dispersal distance, and minimum habitat suitability for reproduction. Received: April 1, 1999 / Accepted: October 29, 1999     

BioMove – an integrated platform simulating the dynamic response of species to environmental change

BioMove simulates plant species' geographic range shifts in response to climate, habitat structure and disturbance, at annual time steps. This spatially explicit approach integrates species' bioclimatic suitability and population‐level demographic rates with simulation of landscape‐level processes (dispersal, disturbance, species' response to dynamic dominant vegetation structure). Species population dynamics are simulated through matrix modelling that includes scaling demographic rates by climatic suitability. Dispersal functions simulate population spread. User‐specified plant functional types (PFTs) provide vegetation structure that determines resource competition and disturbance. PFTs respond annually through dispersal, inter‐PFT competition and demographic shifts. BioMove provides a rich framework for dynamic range simulations.     

Adaptive branching in source-sink habitats

Evolution and ecological diversification in a heterogeneous environment is driven by an often complex interplay between local adaptation and dispersal between different habitat types. Heterogeneous environments also easily generate source-sink dynamics of populations coupled by dispersal. It follows that local adaptation and possible adaptive radiation almost by necessity involves adaptation to a (pseudo-)sink habitat, which is considered unlikely. We here study a model of ‘parapatric branching’ with this special focus on the spatial ecology of the process. We find that evolutionary branching can display a sequence of alternating adaptations to the source or the sink. In some circumstances a true sink can become a pseudo-sink through adaptation to the corresponding source habitat. The evolutionary endpoint is a spatially structured community consisting of two source populations with one corresponding sink or pseudo-sink each. Our results shed new light on the interpretation of extant source-sink systems and the process of parapatric branching.     

Source–sink dynamics: how sinks affect demography of sources

Models of source–sink population dynamics have to make assumptions about whether, and eventually how, demographic parameters in source habitats are dependent on the demography in sink habitats. However, the empirical basis for making such assumptions has been weak. Here we report a study on experimental root vole populations, where estimates of demographic parameters were contrasted between source patches in source–sink (treatment) and source–source systems (control). In the presence of a sink patch (simulated by a pulsed removal of immigrants), source‐patch populations failed to increase over the breeding season, mainly due to a high spatially density‐dependent dispersal rate from source to sink patches. The per capita recruitment rate was almost two times higher in source–sink than in the source–source systems, but this did not compensate for the loss rate due to dispersal from source to sink patches. Sex ratio in the source–sink systems became less female biased, probably as a result of an enhanced frequency of dispersal movements in females. Good knowledge of the degree of density‐and habitat‐dependent dispersal is critical for predicting the dynamics of source–sink populations.     

Evolutionary consequences of asymmetric dispersal rates

We study the consequences of asymmetric dispersal rates (e.g., due to wind or current) for adaptive evolution in a system of two habitat patches. Asymmetric dispersal rates can lead to overcrowding of the "downstream" habitat, resulting in a source-sink population structure in the absence of intrinsic quality differences between habitats or can even cause an intrinsically better habitat to function as a sink. Source-sink population structure due to asymmetric dispersal rates has similar consequences for adaptive evolution as a source-sink structure due to habitat quality differences: natural selection tends to be biased toward the source habitat. We demonstrate this for two models of adaptive evolution: invasion of a rare allele that improves fitness in one habitat but reduces it in the other and antagonistic selection on a quantitative trait determined by five additive loci. If a habitat can sustain a population without immigration, the conditions for adaptation to that habitat are most favorable if there is little or no immigration from the other habitat; the influence of emigration depends on the magnitude of the allelic effects involved and other parameters. If, however, the population is initially unable to persist in a given habitat without immigration, our model predicts that the population will be most likely to adapt to that habitat if the dispersal rates in both directions are high. Our results highlight the general message that the effect of gene flow upon local adaptation should depend profoundly on the demographic context of selection.     

A modeling framework for the establishment and spread of invasive species in heterogeneous environments

Natural and human‐induced events are continuously altering the structure of our landscapes and as a result impacting the spatial relationships between individual landscape elements and the species living in the area. Yet, only recently has the influence of the surrounding landscape on invasive species spread started to be considered. The scientific community increasingly recognizes the need for broader modeling framework that focuses on cross‐study comparisons at different spatiotemporal scales. Using two illustrative examples, we introduce a general modeling framework that allows for a systematic investigation of the effect of habitat change on invasive species establishment and spread. The essential parts of the framework are (i) a mechanistic spatially explicit model (a modular dispersal framework—MDIG ) that allows population dynamics and dispersal to be modeled in a geographical information system (GIS ), (ii) a landscape generator that allows replicated landscape patterns with partially controllable spatial properties to be generated, and (iii) landscape metrics that depict the essential aspects of landscape with which dispersal and demographic processes interact. The modeling framework provides functionality for a wide variety of applications ranging from predictions of the spatiotemporal spread of real species and comparison of potential management strategies, to theoretical investigation of the effect of habitat change on population dynamics. Such a framework allows to quantify how small‐grain landscape characteristics, such as habitat size and habitat connectivity, interact with life‐history traits to determine the dynamics of invasive species spread in fragmented landscape. As such, it will give deeper insights into species traits and landscape features that lead to establishment and spread success and may be key to preventing new incursions and the development of efficient monitoring, surveillance, control or eradication programs.     

Effects of an attractive sink leading into maladaptive habitat selection

Habitat sinks can attract dispersing animals if high mortality or breeding failure are difficult to detect (e.g., when due to human hunting or pollution). Using a simple deterministic model, we explore the dynamics of such source-sink systems considering three scenarios: an avoided sink, no habitat preference, and an attractive sink. In the second two scenarios, there is a threshold proportion of sink habitat above which the whole population decreases to extinction, but this extinction threshold varies with habitat preference and the relative qualities of the two habitat types. Hence, it would be necessary to know the habitat preferences of any species in a source-sink system to interpret data on population increases and declines. In the attractive sink scenario, small changes in the proportion of sink habitat may have disproportionate effects on the population persistence. Also, small changes in growth rates at the source and the sink severely affect the threshold and the time of extinction. For some combinations of demographic parameters and proportion of habitat sink, the decline affects the source first; thus, during some time, it will be hidden to population monitoring at the sink, where numbers can even increase. The extinction threshold is also very sensitive to the initial population sizes relative to carrying capacity. Attractive sinks represent a novel aspect of source-sink dynamics with important conservation and management implications.     

Intense or spatially heterogeneous predation can select against prey dispersal

Dispersal theory generally predicts kin competition, inbreeding, and temporal variation in habitat quality should select for dispersal, whereas spatial variation in habitat quality should select against dispersal. The effect of predation on the evolution of dispersal is currently not well-known: because predation can be variable in both space and time, it is not clear whether or when predation will promote dispersal within prey. Moreover, the evolution of prey dispersal affects strongly the encounter rate of predator and prey individuals, which greatly determines the ecological dynamics, and in turn changes the selection pressures for prey dispersal, in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. When taken all together the effect of predation on prey dispersal is rather difficult to predict. We analyze a spatially explicit, individual-based predator-prey model and its mathematical approximation to investigate the evolution of prey dispersal. Competition and predation depend on local, rather than landscape-scale densities, and the spatial pattern of predation corresponds well to that of predators using restricted home ranges (e.g. central-place foragers). Analyses show the balance between the level of competition and predation pressure an individual is expected to experience determines whether prey should disperse or stay close to their parents and siblings, and more predation selects for less prey dispersal. Predators with smaller home ranges also select for less prey dispersal; more prey dispersal is favoured if predators have large home ranges, are very mobile, and/or are evenly distributed across the landscape.     

Do species population parameters and landscape characteristics affect the relationship between local population abundance and surrounding habitat amount?

In landscape ecology, correlational approaches are typically used to analyse links between local population abundance, and the surrounding habitat amount to estimate biologically-relevant landscape size (extent) for managing endangered or pest populations. The direction, strength, and spatial extent of the correlations are then sometimes interpreted in terms of species population parameters. Here we simulated the population dynamics of generalized species across spatially explicit landscapes that included two distinct habitat types. We investigated how characteristics of a landscape (structure), including the variation in habitat quality and spatial aggregation of the habitat, and the precise population-dynamic properties of the simulated species (dispersal and growth rates) affect the correlation between population abundance and amount of surrounding favourable habitat in the landscape. To evaluate these spatial extents of correlation, proportions of favourable habitat were calculated within several circles of increasing diameter centred on sampling patches of favourable habitat where population abundance was recorded.We found that the value of the correlation coefficients between population abundance and amount of surrounding favourable habitat depended on both population dynamic parameters and landscape characteristics. Coefficients of correlation increased with the variation in habitat quality and the aggregation of favourable habitat in the landscape, but decreased with the dispersal distance. The distance at which the correlation was maximized was sensitive to an interaction between the level of aggregation of the habitat and the dispersal distance; whereas the greatest distance at which a significant correlation occurred was more sensitive to the variation in habitat quality. Our results corroborate the view that correlational analyses do provide information on the local population dynamics of a species in a given habitat type and on its dispersal rate parameters. However, even in simplified, model frameworks, direct relationships are often difficult to disentangle and global landscape characteristics should be reported in any studies intended to derive population-dynamic parameters from correlations. Where possible, replicated landscapes should be examined in order to control for the interaction between population dynamics and landscape structure. Finally, we recommend using species-specific, population-dynamic modelling in order to interpret correctly the observed patterns of correlation in the landscape.     

扩散对破碎化景观上宿主-寄生种群动态的影响

景观破碎化和扩散是空间种群模型的重要因素,对生物入侵存在着深远的影响。本章将基于偶对近似模型,探讨由局部和全局宿主-寄生相互作用共同决定的扩散模式对破坏性景观上疾病入侵与传播的影响。其中,生境破坏由生境丧失量与生境破碎化程度来描述。模拟结果显示,宿主和病毒的全局扩散对疾病的入侵与种群密度产生不对称效应：病毒的全局扩散对系统产生的影响较宿主的全局扩散更为显著。不同扩散模式下,生境丧失越高或破碎化程度越低,均将越有害于寄生病毒的入侵;同时,生境的破坏程度也显著地影响了入侵阈值对扩散模式的响应机制。本文研究结果暗示,景观破碎化的空间分布格局以及病毒扩散的限制均可作为物种保护与管理中有效的疾病控制策略。该研究结果在一定意义上丰富和发展了寄生感染理论,为物种保护提供了生态学理论依据。     

Metapopulation persistence in dynamic landscapes: the role of dispersal distance

Species associated with transient habitats need efficient dispersal strategies to ensure their regional survival. Using a spatially explicit metapopulation model, we studied the effect of the dispersal range on the persistence of a metapopulation as a function of the local population and landscape dynamics (including habitat patch destruction and subsequent regeneration). Our results show that the impact of the dispersal range depends on both the local population and patch growth. This is due to interactions between dispersal and the dynamics of patches and populations via the number of potential dispersers. In general, long-range dispersal had a positive effect on persistence in a dynamic landscape compared to short-range dispersal. Long-range dispersal increases the number of couplings between the patches and thus the colonisation of regenerated patches. However, long-range dispersal lost its advantage for long-term persistence when the number of potential dispersers was low due to small population growth rates and/or small patch growth rates. Its advantage also disappeared with complex local population dynamics and in a landscape with clumped patch distribution.     

Expansion of Brown Bears (Ursus arctos) into the Eastern Alps: A Spatially Explicit Population Model

We present a spatially explicit population model for analysing the expansion of brown bears (Ursus arctos) after the reintroduction program in central Austria. The model is based on field investigations into brown bears in Austria and Slovenia and on current knowledge of brown bears. The landscape of the eastern Alps is represented by a GIS-derived raster map defining local habitat suitability and five major spatial barriers to dispersal. The population model follows the fate of individual bears and simulates reproduction, dispersal, home range establishment, and mortality in annual time steps. We indirectly adjust unknown or uncertain model parameters with 10-year data on the number of females with cubs in central Austria and determine key variables of population dynamics, such as population sizes and growth rates within different population nuclei, dispersal distances, or mortality rates, for model parameterisations that reproduce the data on females with cubs. We estimated a current (1996–2000) growth rate of the population in Austria and adjacent parts of Italy of some 14%; a high proportion of this growth was due toimmigration from Slovenia. Consequently, the growth rate of the subpopulation in central Austria, which probably is isolated functionally (i.e., no exchange of females) from the nuclei along the Austrian–Slovenian border, yielded some 7%. This subpopulation may comprise seven residents, and we estimated for females a 33% risk of extinction during the 1992–2000 period. Validation and confirmation of our model results with data on bear densities that were not used for model construction and parameterisation supported our findings. The high female mortality rates, together with the vulnerability of the small population to chance events (i.e., demographic stochasticity), are the most pressing threat for the population in the eastern Alps. Our approach could be widely applied for analysing dynamics of rare and endangered species in which the paucity of data precludes an appraisal of the state of the population using standard methods.     

Modelling space use and dispersal of mammals in real landscapes: a tool for conservation

Aim To explore the usefulness of Spatially Explicit Population Models (SEPMs), incorporating dispersal, as tools for animal conservation, as illustrated by the contrasting cases of four British mammals. Methods For each of the four species (American mink, Mustela vison, pine marten, Martes martes, dormouse, Muscardinus avellanarius and water vole, Arvicola terrestris) a spatial dynamics model was developed based on an integrated geographical information system (GIS) population model that linked space use to the incidence of the species. Each model had, first, a GIS, which stored environmental, habitat and animal population information, and secondly, an individual‐based population dynamics module, which simulated home range formation, individual life histories and dispersal within the GIS‐held landscape. Results The four models illustrated different interactions between species life‐history variables and the landscape, particularly with respect to dispersal. As water voles and dormice occupy home ranges that are small relative to blocks of their habitat, they were most effectively modelled in terms of the dynamics of local populations within habitat blocks but linked by dispersal. In contrast, because the home ranges of American mink and pine marten are large relative to blocks of habitat, they were best modelled as individuals moving through a landscape of more or less useful patches of habitat. For the water vole, the most significant predictors of population size were the carrying capacity of each habitat and the annual number of litters. For the dormouse, the likelihood of catastrophe and the upper limit to dispersal movement were the key variables determining persistence. Adult mortality and home‐range size were the only significant partial correlates of total population size for the American mink. Adult mortality was also a significant correlate of total population size in the pine marten, as were litter size and juvenile mortality. In neither the marten nor the mink was dispersal distance a significant factor in determining their persistence in the landscape. Main conclusions At a landscape scale it is difficult to measure animal distributions directly and yet conservation planning often necessitates knowledge of where, and in what numbers, animals are found, and how their distributions will be affected by interventions. SEPMs offer a useful tool for predicting this, and for refining conservation plans before irreversible decisions are taken in practice.     

The Dispersal System of a Butterfly: A Test of Source-Sink Theory Suggests the Intermediate-Scale Hypothesis

Theory predicts source-sink dynamics can occur in species with the ideal preemptive distribution but not with the ideal free distribution. Source-sink dynamics can also occur in species with passive dispersal, in which a fixed fraction of the population disperses each generation. However, in nature, dispersal often approximates random diffusion rather than ideal choices or fixed probabilities. Here, I ask which dispersal system occurred in a butterfly (Euphydryas editha) known to have source-sink dynamics. The study used 13 experimental sites, where vacant and occupied habitat patches were juxtaposed. I estimated movement during the flight season and tested hypotheses about the type of dispersal system. Ideal free and ideal preemptive models were rejected because per capita movement rates were density independent. Passive dispersal was rejected because per capita rates were related to patch area and habitat preference. The diffusion model best explained the data because it predicted both the area relationship and an odd feature of the habitat preference: immigration was not higher in preferred habitat; rather, emigration was lower. The diffusion model implied that source-sink dynamics were driven by diffusion from areas of high to low population density. Existing source-sink theory assumes fine-scale patchiness, in which animals have perfect knowledge and ease of mobility. The results from the butterfly suggest that source-sink dynamics arise at coarser spatial scales, where diffusion models apply.     

Evaluating spatially explicit viability of a declining ruffed grouse population

Species associated with early successional habitats have experienced dramatic declines in the eastern United States as a result of land use changes and human disruption of natural disturbance regimes. Consequently, active management is required to create early successional habitat and promote plant and animal communities that depend on periodic forest disturbance. Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) depend on recently disturbed forest habitat, and have experienced dramatic declines over the last half-century. Although ruffed grouse are extensively studied, little effort has been made to link population dynamics with habitat management at landscape scales. We used stochastic, spatially explicit population models that combined landscape conditions derived from a Geographic Information System with demographic data, and applied the model to a declining ruffed grouse population in Rhode Island, USA. We identified vital rates that influence ruffed grouse population dynamics using baseline models constructed with current demographic rates and landscape conditions, and assessed the effect of landscape-scale forest management alternatives on population persistence by running multiple management simulations. Baseline models typically predicted population decline, and we concluded that vital rates (survival and recruitment) had a greater influence on population persistence than did dispersal capability, carrying capacity, or initial population size. Management simulations predicted greater population persistence under a scenario where high-quality habitat was provided in fewer large blocks as opposed to many small blocks, and the rate at which we allowed ruffed grouse to colonize newly created habitat had a substantial impact on management success. Populations of ruffed grouse in the eastern United States are likely to continue to decline given current disturbance regimes, and our work provides a link between ruffed grouse demography and landscape-scale habitat conditions to support management decisions. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Temporal autocorrelation can enhance the persistence and abundance of metapopulations comprised of coupled sinks

In spatially heterogeneous landscapes, some habitats may be persistent sources, providing immigrants to sustain populations in unfavorable sink habitats (where extinction is inevitable without immigration). Recent theoretical and empirical studies of source-sink systems demonstrate that temporally variable local growth rates in sinks can substantially increase average abundance of a persisting population, provided that the variation is positively autocorrelated--in effect, temporal variation inflates average abundance. Here we extend these results to a metapopulation in which all habitat patches are sinks. Using numerical studies of a population with discrete generations (buttressed by analytic results), we show that temporal variation and moderate dispersal can jointly permit indefinite persistence of the metapopulation and that positive autocorrelation both lowers the magnitude of variation required for persistence and increases the average abundance of persisting metapopulations. These effects are weakened--but not destroyed--if variation in local growth rates is spatially synchronized and dispersal is localized. We show that the inflationary effect is robust to a number of extensions of the basic model, including demographic stochasticity and density dependence. Because ecological and environmental processes contributing to temporally variable growth rates in natural populations are typically autocorrelated, these observations may have important implications for species persistence.     

Multiscale Habitat Use and Selection in Cooperatively Breeding Micronesian Kingfishers

Abstract: Information about the interaction between behavior and landscape resources is key to directing conservation management for endangered species. We studied multi-scale occurrence, habitat use, and selection in a cooperatively breeding population of Micronesian kingfishers (Todiramphus cinnamominus) on the island of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia. At the landscape level, point-transect surveys resulted in kingfisher detection frequencies that were higher than those reported in 1994, although they remained 15-40% lower than 1983 indices. Integration of spatially explicit vegetation information with survey results indicated that kingfisher detections were positively associated with the amount of wet forest and grass-urban vegetative cover, and they were negatively associated with agricultural forest, secondary vegetation, and upland forest cover types. We used radiotelemetry and remote sensing to evaluate habitat use by individual kingfishers at the home-range scale. A comparison of habitats in Micronesian kingfisher home ranges with those in randomly placed polygons illustrated that birds used more forested areas than were randomly available in the immediate surrounding area. Further, members of cooperatively breeding groups included more forest in their home ranges than birds in pair-breeding territories, and forested portions of study areas appeared to be saturated with territories. Together, these results suggested that forest habitats were limited for Micronesian kingfishers. Thus, protecting and managing forests is important for the restoration of Micronesian kingfishers to the island of Guam (United States Territory), where they are currently extirpated, as well as to maintaining kingfisher populations on the islands of Pohnpei and Palau. Results further indicated that limited forest resources may restrict dispersal opportunities and, therefore, play a role in delayed dispersal and cooperative behaviors in Micronesian kingfishers.     

Relationships between migration rates and landscape resistance assessed using individual-based simulations

Linking landscape effects on gene flow to processes such as dispersal and mating is essential to provide a conceptual foundation for landscape genetics. It is particularly important to determine how classical population genetic models relate to recent individual-based landscape genetic models when assessing individual movement and its influence on population genetic structure. We used classical Wright-Fisher models and spatially explicit, individual-based, landscape genetic models to simulate gene flow via dispersal and mating in a series of landscapes representing two patches of habitat separated by a barrier. We developed a mathematical formula that predicts the relationship between barrier strength (i.e., permeability) and the migration rate (m) across the barrier, thereby linking spatially explicit landscape genetics to classical population genetics theory. We then assessed the reliability of the function by obtaining population genetics parameters (m, F(ST) ) using simulations for both spatially explicit and Wright-Fisher simulation models for a range of gene flow rates. Next, we show that relaxing some of the assumptions of the Wright-Fisher model can substantially change population substructure (i.e., F(ST) ). For example, isolation by distance among individuals on each side of a barrier maintains an F(ST) of ～0.20 regardless of migration rate across the barrier, whereas panmixia on each side of the barrier results in an F(ST) that changes with m as predicted by classical population genetics theory. We suggest that individual-based, spatially explicit modelling provides a general framework to investigate how interactions between movement and landscape resistance drive population genetic patterns and connectivity across complex landscapes.     

When sinks become sources: Adaptive colonization in asexuals*

The establishment of a population into a new empty habitat outside of its initial niche is a phenomenon akin to evolutionary rescue in the presence of immigration. It underlies a wide range of processes, such as biological invasions by alien organisms, host shifts in pathogens, or the emergence of resistance to pesticides or antibiotics from untreated areas. We derive an analytically tractable framework to describe the evolutionary and demographic dynamics of asexual populations in a source-sink system. We analyze the influence of several factors on the establishment success in the sink, and on the time until establishment. To this aim, we use a classic phenotype-fitness landscape (Fisher's geometrical model in n dimensions) where the source and sink habitats have different phenotypic optima. In case of successful establishment, the mean fitness in the sink follows a typical four-phases trajectory. The waiting time to establishment is independent of the immigration rate and has a “U-shaped” dependence on the mutation rate, until some threshold where lethal mutagenesis impedes establishment and the sink population remains so. We use these results to get some insight into possible effects of several management strategies.