Evolution in the real world: stochastic variation and the determinants of fitness in Carlina vulgaris

Empirical studies of life histories often ignore stochastic variation, despite theoretical demonstrations of its potential impact on life-history evolution. Here we use a novel approach to explore the effects of stochastic variation on life-history evolution and estimate the selection pressures operating on the monocarpic perennial Carlina vulgaris, in which flowering may be delayed by up to eight years. The approach is novel in that we use modern theoretical techniques to estimate selection pressures and the fitness landscape from a fully parameterised individual-based model. These approaches take into account temporal variation in demographic rates and density dependence. Analysis of 16 years' data revealed significant temporal variation in growth, mortality, and recruitment in our study population. Flowering was strongly size dependent and, unusually for such a species, also age dependent. Individual-based models of the flowering strategy, parameterized using field data, consistently underestimated the size at flowering, when temporal variation in demographic rates was ignored. In contrast, models that incorporated temporal variation in growth, mortality, and recruitment predicted sizes at flowering not significantly different from those observed in the field. Temporal variation in mortality, which had the largest effect on the flowering strategy, selected for increased size at flowering. An analytical approximation is presented to explain this result, extending the "1-year look-ahead criterion" presented in Rees et al. (2000). A fitness landscape generated by following the fate of rare mutant invaders with a broad range of alternative flowering strategies demonstrated that the observed parameters were adaptive. However, the fitness landscape reveals that approximately equal fitness is achieved by a broad range of strategies, providing a mechanism for the maintenance of genetic variation. To understand how the different parameters that defined our models determine the fitness of rare mutants, we numerically estimated the elasticities and sensitivities of mutant fitness. This demonstrated strong selection on a number of the parameters. Elasticities and sensitivities estimated in constant and random environments were significantly positively correlated, and both were negatively related to the standard error of the parameter. This last result is surprising and, we argue, reflects the genetic and phenotypic responses to selection.     

Fluctuating selection on reproductive timing in Digitalis purpurea

Despite recent, strong interest in the modelling of monocarpic perennial flowering strategies, little is known about how variation in demographic rates affects selection on optimal timing of flowering. Temporal variation may yield fluctuating selective pressures, or, if individuals experience time trends, selection for phenotypic plasticity. Here we report the results of a 3-year study in a large field population of the facultative biennial herb Digitalis purpurea , where we use field data on size-dependent growth, survival and fecundity to parameterize an existing optimisation model. We compare results from models using either deterministic or individually varying demographic rates to address the degree of fluctuating selection on the flowering strategy. In addition, we explore whether recent growing conditions influence the size-specific liability to flower. Model results differed widely between years; immediate onset of reproduction was predicted in 1999, strongly delayed reproduction in 2000. This reflected large differences in both growth and survival rates between years. Observed flowering sizes also varied between years, but were larger in 1999 than in 2000, contrary to model predictions. Incorporating individual variation in growth increased predicted optimal flowering sizes compared to models using deterministic growth, whereas the inclusion of individual survival variation had little effect. There was no significant effect of recent growth rate on flowering probability. Taken together, these results indicate highly fluctuating selection on the flowering strategy in D. purpurea , but no evidence of adaptive plasticity in response to current growing conditions. Fluctuating selection may contribute to maintain genetic variation for threshold size for flowering, and may partly explain the large within-season size-variation in flowering individuals found in natural populations of D. purpurea .     

Vernalization sensitivity in Arabidopsis thaliana (Brassicaceae): the effects of latitude and FLC variation

Latitudinal variation in climate is predicted to select for latitudinal differentiation in sensitivity to the environmental cues that signal plants to flower at the appropriate time for a given climate. In Arabidopsis thaliana, flowering is promoted by exposure to cold temperatures (vernalization), and several vernalization pathway loci are known. To test whether natural variation in vernalization sensitivity could account for a previously observed latitudinal cline in flowering time in A. thaliana, we exposed 21 European accessions to 0, 10, 20, or 30 d of vernalization and observed leaf number at flowering under short days in a growth chamber. We observed a significant latitudinal cline in vernalization sensitivity: southern accessions were more sensitive to vernalization than northern accessions. In addition, accessions that were late flowering in the absence of vernalization were more sensitive to vernalization cues. Allelic variation at the flowering time regulatory gene FLC was not associated with mean vernalization sensitivity, but one allele class exhibited greater variance in vernalization sensitivity.     

Evolution of flowering strategies in Oenothera glazioviana: an integral projection model approach

The timing of reproduction is a key determinant of fitness. Here, we develop parameterized integral projection models of size-related flowering for the monocarpic perennial Oenothera glazioviana and use these to predict the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for flowering. For the most part there is excellent agreement between the model predictions and the results of quantitative field studies. However, the model predicts a much steeper relationship between plant size and the probability of flowering than observed in the field, indicating selection for a 'threshold size' flowering function. Elasticity and sensitivity analysis of population growth rate lambda and net reproductive rate R(0) are used to identify the critical traits that determine fitness and control the ESS for flowering. Using the fitted model we calculate the fitness landscape for invading genotypes and show that this is characterized by a ridge of approximately equal fitness. The implications of these results for the maintenance of genetic variation are discussed.     

Seed dormancy and delayed flowering in monocarpic plants: selective interactions in a stochastic environment

We explore the effects of temporal variation in multiple demographic rates on the joint evolution of delayed reproduction and seed dormancy using integral projection models (IPMs). To do this, we extend the standard IPM to include a discrete state variable representing the number of seeds in the seed bank, density-dependent recruitment, and temporal variation in demography. Parameter estimates for Carlina vulgaris and Carduus nutans are obtained from long-term studies. Carlina is relatively long lived and has a short-lived seed bank, whereas most Carduus plants flower in their first year and the seed bank is long lived. Using the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) approach, we predict the observed flowering and germination strategies. There is excellent agreement between the predictions and the field observations. The effects of temporal variation on the joint ESS are partitioned into components arising from nonlinear averaging (systematic changes in the mean resulting from the interaction between variability and nonlinearity) and nonequilibrium dynamics (fluctuations in fitness caused by temporal variation). This shows that temporal variation can have substantial effects on the observed flowering and germination strategies and that covariance between demographic processes is important. We extend the models to include spatial population structure and assess the robustness of the results from the nonspatial models.     

Current trends and future directions in flower development research

Flowers, the reproductive structures of the approximately 400 000 extant species of flowering plants, exist in a tremendous range of forms and sizes, mainly due to developmental differences involving the number, arrangement, size and form of the floral organs of which they consist. However, this tremendous diversity is underpinned by a surprisingly robust basic floral structure in which a central group of carpels forms on an axis of determinate growth, almost invariably surrounded by two successive zones containing stamens and perianth organs, respectively. Over the last 25 years, remarkable progress has been achieved in describing the molecular mechanisms that control almost all aspects of flower development, from the phase change that initiates flowering to the final production of fruits and seeds. However, this work has been performed almost exclusively in a small number of eudicot model species, chief among which is Arabidopsis thaliana. Studies of flower development must now be extended to a much wider phylogenetic range of flowering plants and, indeed, to their closest living relatives, the gymnosperms. Studies of further, more wide-ranging models should provide insights that, for various reasons, cannot be obtained by studying the major existing models alone. The use of further models should also help to explain how the first flowering plants evolved from an unknown, although presumably gymnosperm-like ancestor, and rapidly diversified to become the largest major plant group and to dominate the terrestrial flora. The benefits for society of a thorough understanding of flower development are self-evident, as human life depends to a large extent on flowering plants and on the fruits and seeds they produce. In this preface to the Special Issue, we introduce eleven articles on flower development, representing work in both established and further models, including gymnosperms. We also present some of our own views on current trends and future directions of the flower development field.     

Temporal cline in a hybrid zone population between Fraxinus excelsior L. and Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl

The two closely related ash species Fraxinus excelsior L. (common ash) and Fraxinus angustifolia Vahl (narrow-leaved ash) have a broad contact zone in France where they hybridize. However, little is known about the local structure of hybrid zone populations and the isolation mechanisms. We assessed the potential effect of floral phenology on the structure of a riparian ash hybrid zone population in central France. The distribution of flowering times was unimodal and lay between the flowering periods of the two species. Using microsatellite markers, we detected isolation by time, which has possibly originated from assortative mating. Multivariate analyses indicated that morphological variation is not distributed at random with respect to flowering times. Spatial autocorrelation analyses showed that temporal and spatial patterns were tightly linked. Interestingly, despite the fact that the population shows isolation by time, neighbourhood size and historical dispersal variance (sigma = 63 m) are similar to those detected in pure stands of F. excelsior where individuals flower rather synchronously and hermaphrodites are not the most frequent sexual type. Trees flowering at intermediate dates, which comprised the majority of the population, produced on average more flowers and fruits. We detected no significant differences in floral parasite infections relative to reproductive timing, although there was a tendency for late flowering trees to suffer from more gall attack. We discuss the impact of temporal variation in fitness traits and their possible role in the maintenance of the hybrid zone.     

Flowering phenology in Solidago altissima: adaptive strategies against temporal variation in temperature

The evolution of flowering phenology is the result of a trade-off that balances many factors, including growth, reproductive capacity, and temporal overlap with pollinators. When there is large temporal variation in temperature, particularly in the onset of frost, the optimum flowering strategy will vary from year to year. In Duluth, MN, USA, the end of the growing season can vary by more than 30 days. In this study, we observed flowering phenology and pollinator abundance on 15 genotypes of Solidago altissima in Duluth, MN. We predicted that temporal variation in temperature would lead to a range of flowering strategies in the S. altissima population; some genotypes flower early and in synchrony, some ‘hedge their bets’ by flowering over a range of dates, and others have an intermediate strategy. Our results indicate that genotypes vary in mean flowering date and duration of flowering and, for the two observed years, pollinator abundance was highest for early-flowering genotypes.     

Field evaluation of a model of photothermal flowering responses in a world lentil collection

A model to predict flowering time in diverse lentil genotypes grown under widely different photothermal conditions was developed in controlled environments. The present study evaluated that model with a world germ plasm collection of 369 accessions using two field environments in Syria and two in Pakistan. Photoperiod alone accounted for 69% of the variance in 1/f, the reciprocal of time (d) from sowing to flower. In contrast, temperature alone did not account for a significant proportion of variation in flowering time due to the exposure of plants to supra-optimal temperatures in the late-sown Syrian trial. With the model mean pre-flowering values of photoperiod and temperature combined additively to account for 90.3% of the variance of 1/f over accessions. The correlation of field-derived estimates of temperature sensitivity of accessions to glass-house-derived estimates was significant at P = 0.05, but the equivalent correlation for estimates of photoperiodic sensitivity was higher at P < 0.01. Flowering in the field was better measured as time from sowing to 50% plants in flower rather than time to first bloom or its node number. Dissemination of the lentil crop following domestication in West Asia to the lower latitudes such as Ethiopia and India has depended on selection for intrinsic earliness and reduced sensitivity to photoperiod. Movement from West Asia to the higher latitudes accompanied by spring sowing has resulted in a modest reduction in photoperiod sensitivity and an increase in temperature sensitivity.     

Pollinator population size and pollination ecosystem service responses to enhancing floral and nesting resources

Modeling pollination ecosystem services requires a spatially explicit, process‐based approach because they depend on both the behavioral responses of pollinators to the amount and spatial arrangement of habitat and on the within‐ and between‐season dynamics of pollinator populations in response to land use. We describe a novel pollinator model predicting flower visitation rates by wild central‐place foragers (e.g., nesting bees) in spatially explicit landscapes. The model goes beyond existing approaches by: (1) integrating preferential use of more rewarding floral and nesting resources; (2) considering population growth over time; (3) allowing different dispersal distances for workers and reproductives; (4) providing visitation rates for use in crop pollination models. We use the model to estimate the effect of establishing grassy field margins offering nesting resources and a low quantity of flower resources, and/or late‐flowering flower strips offering no nesting resources but abundant flowers, on bumble bee populations and visitation rates to flowers in landscapes that differ in amounts of linear seminatural habitats and early mass‐flowering crops. Flower strips were three times more effective in increasing pollinator populations and visitation rates than field margins, and this effect increased over time. Late‐blooming flower strips increased early‐season visitation rates, but decreased visitation rates in other late‐season flowers. Increases in population size over time in response to flower strips and amounts of linear seminatural habitats reduced this apparent competition for pollinators. Our spatially explicit, process‐based model generates emergent patterns reflecting empirical observations, such that adding flower resources may have contrasting short‐ and long‐term effects due to apparent competition for pollinators and pollinator population size increase. It allows exploring these effects and comparing effect sizes in ways not possible with other existing models. Future applications include species comparisons, analysis of the sensitivity of predictions to life‐history traits, as well as large‐scale management intervention and policy assessment.     

MIGRATION AND GENETIC DRIFT IN HUMAN POPULATIONS

In humans and many other species, mortality is concentrated early in the life cycle, and is low during the ages of dispersal and reproduction. Yet precisely the opposite is assumed by classical population-genetics models of migration and genetic drift. We introduce a model in which population regulation occurs before migration. In contrast to the conventional model, our model implies that geographic variation in the allele frequencies of newborns should exceed that of adults. Thus, it is important to distinguish genetic variation of adults from that of newborns in species with human-like life cycles. Classical models deal with the variance of group allele frequencies about the allele frequency of a hypothetical “continent” or “foundation stock.” Empirical studies, however, can only measure “reduced” variance, i.e., variance about the current population mean. Our model deals with reduced variance, and should therefore be more relevant to field studies. We show that reduced variance converges faster, which implies that populations are more likely to be at equilibrium with respect to reduced than unreduced variance. To summarize the effect of migration on genetic population structure, we introduce a new parameter, the effective migration rate. Unlike most population structure statistics, it does not confound the effects of mobility and population size, and it should therefore be useful for comparisons between populations. Finally, we show that the difference between geographic variation of newborn and adult allele frequencies contains information about both effective population size and effective migration rate.     

Stochastic stable population growth in integral projection models: theory and application

Stochastic matrix projection models are widely used to model age- or stage-structured populations with vital rates that fluctuate randomly over time. Practical applications of these models rest on qualitative properties such as the existence of a long term population growth rate, asymptotic log-normality of total population size, and weak ergodicity of population structure. We show here that these properties are shared by a general stochastic integral projection model, by using results in (Eveson in D. Phil. Thesis, University of Sussex, 1991, Eveson in Proc. Lond. Math. Soc. 70, 411-440, 1993) to extend the approach in (Lange and Holmes in J. Appl. Prob. 18, 325-344, 1981). Integral projection models allow individuals to be cross-classified by multiple attributes, either discrete or continuous, and allow the classification to change during the life cycle. These features are present in plant populations with size and age as important predictors of individual fate, populations with a persistent bank of dormant seeds or eggs, and animal species with complex life cycles. We also present a case-study based on a 6-year field study of the Illyrian thistle, Onopordum illyricum, to demonstrate how easily a stochastic integral model can be parameterized from field data and then applied using familiar matrix software and methods. Thistle demography is affected by multiple traits (size, age and a latent "quality" variable), which would be difficult to accommodate in a classical matrix model. We use the model to explore the evolution of size- and age-dependent flowering using an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) approach. We find close agreement between the observed flowering behavior and the predicted ESS from the stochastic model, whereas the ESS predicted from a deterministic version of the model is very different from observed flowering behavior. These results strongly suggest that the flowering strategy in O. illyricum is an adaptation to random between-year variation in vital rates.     

The third party

Abstract. Spatial and temporal variation in interactions among plants, other species and the abiotic environment create context‐dependency in vegetation pattern. We argue that we can enhance understanding of context‐dependency by being more explicit about the kinds of direct interactions that occur among more than two living and non‐living entities (i.e., third through nth parties) and formalizing how their combinations create context‐dependency using simple conceptual models. This general approach can be translated into field studies of context‐dependency in communities by combining: progressive sampling of local variation in vegetation pattern that encompasses variation in combinations of direct interactions; spatial and temporal measures of these direct interactions; locally parameterized versions of the conceptual models; and appropriately scaled experiments.     

Genetic variation for sexual dimorphism in flower size within and between populations of gynodioecious Thymus vulgaris

There has been very little empirical study of quantitative genetic variation in flower size in sexually dimorphic plant species, despite the frequent occurrence of flower size differences between sexual phenotypes. In this study we quantify the nature of quantitative flower size variation in females and hermaphrodites of gynodioecious Thymus vulgaris. In a field study, females had significantly smaller flowers than hermaphrodites, and the degree of flower size dimorphism varied significantly among populations. To quantify the genetic basis of flower size variation we sampled maternal progeny from 10 F₀ females in three populations (across the range of variation in flower size in the field), performed controlled crosses on F₁ offspring in the glasshouse and grew F₂ progeny to flowering in uniform field conditions. A significant population * sex interaction was again observed, hence the degree of sexual dimorphism shows genetic variation among populations. A significant family * sex interaction was also observed, indicating that the degree of sexual dimorphism shows genetic variation among families. Females showed significantly greater variation among populations and among families than hermaphrodites. Female flower size varied significantly depending on the degree of stamen abortion, with morphologically intermediate females having flowers more similar to hermaphrodites than to other females. The frequency of female types that differ in the degree of stamen abortion varied among populations and families and mean family female flower size increased as the proportion of intermediate female types increased across families. Variation in the degree of flower size dimorphism thus appears to be a result of variation in the degree of stamen abortion in females, the potential causes of which are discussed.     

不同产地木荷优树无性系生长和开花性状的分析

为比较不同产地木荷（Schima superba Gardn.et Champ.）优树无性系的生长性状（包括树高、胸径、冠幅和一级侧枝数）和开花性状（包括开花物候期和花朵数量）的遗传差异,采用方差分析、相关性分析和聚类分析方法,对来源于福建建瓯和连城、浙江庆元及龙泉和遂昌、江西上犹的22个木荷优树无性系的生长和开花性状进行了综合分析。结果表明：供试木荷无性系的树高、胸径、冠幅和一级侧枝数的的变异系数为19%~32%,始花时段、盛花时段、末花时段和花朵数量的变异系数为37%~73%,表明不同无性系生长和开花性状的变异较大。除木荷无性系一级侧枝数产地间的变异未达到显著水平外,其他生长和开花性状产地间和产地内的变异均达到显著或极显著水平。各生长和开花性状的无性系重复力为0.41~0.94,显示遗传控制程度中等偏强。无性系的树高、胸径和冠幅与花期的相关性均不显著,但与花朵数量呈显著或极显著正相关;来自较低纬度的无性系始花期最早,来自较高纬度或海拔的无性系始花期最晚。聚类分析结果显示：22个木荷无性系可聚为4个类型,类型1和类型4分别包含5个和7个无性系,这2类无性系的树高、胸径、冠幅和花朵数量总体上高于群体均值,生长表现优良、花朵数量较多,且类型4包含的无性系产地纬度较低、开花日期较早;类型2包含8个无性系,生长表现一般、花朵数量较少;类型3包含2个无性系,生长表现优良、花朵数量低于群体均值。研究结果显示：依据产地的纬度和海拔可初步判定木荷无性系的花期,可为木荷杂交育种亲本的选配和种子园建园过程中无性系的配置提供科学依据和理论基础。     

Evolutionary demography of iteroparous plants: incorporating non-lethal costs of reproduction into integral projection models

Understanding the selective forces that shape reproductive strategies is a central goal of evolutionary ecology. Selection on the timing of reproduction is well studied in semelparous organisms because the cost of reproduction (death) can be easily incorporated into demographic models. Iteroparous organisms also exhibit delayed reproduction and experience reproductive costs, although these are not necessarily lethal. How non-lethal costs shape iteroparous life histories remains unresolved. We analysed long-term demographic data for the iteroparous orchid Orchis purpurea from two habitat types (light and shade). In both the habitats, flowering plants had lower growth rates and this cost was greater for smaller plants. We detected an additional growth cost of fruit production in the light habitat. We incorporated these non-lethal costs into integral projection models to identify the flowering size that maximizes fitness. In both habitats, observed flowering sizes were well predicted by the models. We also estimated optimal parameters for size-dependent flowering effort, but found a strong mismatch with the observed flower production. Our study highlights the role of context-dependent non-lethal reproductive costs as selective forces in the evolution of iteroparous life histories, and provides a novel and broadly applicable approach to studying the evolutionary demography of iteroparous organisms.     

Flowering phenology and reproduction of a forest understorey plant species in response to the local environment

Temperate forest understorey plants are subjected to a strong seasonality in their optimal growing conditions. In winter and early spring, low temperatures are suboptimal for plant growth while light becomes limited later in spring season. We can thus expect that differences in plant phenology in relation to spatiotemporal environmental variation will lead to differences in reproductive output, and hence selection. We specifically studied whether early flowering, a paradoxical pattern that is observed in many plant species, is an adaptive strategy, and whether selection for early flowering was confounded with selection for flower duration or was attributable to environmental variables. We used Geum urbanum as a study species to investigate the effect of relevant environmental factors on the species’ flowering phenology and the consequences for plant reproductive output. We monitored the phenology of four to six plants in each of ten locations in a temperate deciduous forest (Belgium). We first quantified variation in flowering time within individuals and related this temporal variation to individual flower reproductive output. Then, we studied inter-individual variation here-in and linked this to reproduction at the plant level, hence studying the selection differential. We found that flowering within individual plants of Geum urbanum was spread over a long period from June to October. Reproductive output of individual flowers, measured as total seed mass per flower, declined during the season. We found no indication for selection for early flowering but rather for longer flower duration. Larger plants had an earlier flowering onset and a higher seed mass, which suggests that these factors covary and are condition dependent. None of the studied environmental variables could explain plant size, although soil pH and to a lesser extent light availability had a positive direct effect on seed mass per plant. Finally, we suggest that the high intra-individual variation in flowering time, which might be a risk spreading strategy of the plant in the presence of seed predation, limits the potential for selection on flowering phenology.

     

Path analysis of natural selection via survival and fecundity across contrasting environments in Avena barbata

We employed path analysis to analyse natural selection through two major fitness components in each of three contrasting environments. Using a randomized block design, 188 Recombinant Inbred Lines (RILs) derived from a cross between contrasting ecotypes of Avena barbata were planted in common gardens in the greenhouse, and in two field sites typical of each ecotype’s native habitat. Individuals were monitored for germination phenology, early growth, survival, final size, flowering phenology, reproductive allocation, fecundity and lifetime reproductive success. The variance/covariance matrix of the RIL (genotype) means was fit to a path model in which total fitness was made up of survival and fecundity (of survivors) components. In the greenhouse, all fitness variation was determined by fecundity variation (with no mortality), which was itself primarily determined by reproductive allocation mediated by date of first flowering. By contrast, in the field, early growth was the major determinant of survival, and final size was the major determinant of fecundity. Both components of fitness affected lifetime reproductive success equally in the field. Thus the major difference between greenhouse and field seems to be a shift from selection on allocation patterns in adults, to selection on resource acquisition, especially at earlier life stages. The pattern of selection was similar in the two field sites, despite the contrasting environments.