Variation in wealth and educational drivers of fertility decline across 45 countries

Fertility decline in human populations is an inherent evolutionary puzzle with major demographic, socio-cultural and evolutionary consequences. The individual level predictors of fertility decline are numerous, but the way these effects vary by country and how they are causally mediated by other factors has received relatively little attention. Here we take a multilevel approach to compare similarities and differences in the primary predictors of contemporary fertility declines—wealth and education—across 45 countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America, the Caribbean, and the Middle East using Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected from 2003 to 2015. We use multilevel models to understand variation in the slopes of these predictors on fertility, and structural equation models to examine the causal pathways by which they take their effects, focusing on four mediating variables: local mortality and birth rates, women’s work status, and contraceptive use. We find that associations between wealth and fertility differ substantially across populations, while associations between education and fertility are consistently negative. The mediators also vary: community-level birth rates and women’s contraceptive use are important mediators between education, wealth and the number of children born across a wide variety of countries, but community-level mortality rates and women’s work status are not. We discuss our results in the context of different causal pathways that reflect cultural and biological evolutionary dynamics as simultaneous and interacting drivers of fertility decline.     

Fertility decline driven by poverty: the case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Demographic transition theory states that fertility declines in response to development, thus wealth and fertility are negatively correlated. Evolutionary theory, however, suggests a positive relationship between wealth and fertility. Fertility transition as a result of industrialization and economic development started in the late 19th and early 20th centuries in Western Europe; and it extended to some of the Asian and Latin American countries later on. However, economic crises since the 1980s have been co-incident with fertility decline in sub-Sahara Africa and other developing countries like Thailand, Nepal and Bangladesh in the last decade of the 20th century. A very low level of fertility is observed in Addis Ababa (TFR=1.9) where contraceptive prevalence rate is modest and recurrent famine as well as drought have been major causes of economic crisis in the country for more than three consecutive decades, which is surprising given the high rural fertility. Detailed socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of 2976 women of reproductive age (i.e. 15-49 years) residing in Addis Ababa were collected during the first quarter of 2003 using an event history calendar and individual women questionnaire. Controlling for the confounding effects of maternal birth cohort, education, marital status and accessible income level, the poor (those who have access to less than a dollar per day or 250 birr a month) were observed to elongate the timing of having first and second births, while relatively better-off women were found to have shorter birth intervals. Results were also the same among the ever-married women only model. More than 50% of women currently in their 20s are also predicted to fail to reproduce as most of the unmarried men and women are 'retreating from marriage' due to economic stress. Qualitative information collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews also supports the statistical findings that poverty is at the root of this collapse in fertility. Whilst across countries wealth and fertility have been negatively correlated, this study shows that within one uniform population the relationship is clearly positive.     

Correcting contraceptive failure rates for sample composition and sample selection bias

Abstract

There is reason to believe that in the short run marriages are becoming more stable in some Western African countries such as Cameroon. One of the crucial questions facing these countries is whether fertility rates can be expected to increase or decrease due in part to the increased stability of marriages. Analyzing 1978 Cameroon World Fertility Survey data and using a multivariate regression model which compares the fertility rate of women who have had at least one marital disruption with that of continuously married women, we studied the relationship between marital instability and fertility. The results show that fertility rates for women married more than once are significantly lower than those for continuously married women even before the end of their first marriage. Furthermore, marital disruption significantly reduces fertility rates after the dissolution of the first marriage. Finally, even after the length of reproductive time lost is controlled, there is an inverse relationship between the number of marriages and fertility. The results are discussed in the context of economic development, modernization, and urbanization.     

A note on the determinants of breastfeeding durations in an African country

Abstract

This paper utilizes data from the 1977–78 Kenya Fertility Survey, one component of the World Fertility Survey, to analyze the determinants of breastfeeding durations for women 15 to 50 years old who had their last‐but‐one live birth between 3 and 15 years prior to the interview. Comparisons are made with the findings from the World Fertility Surveys in eight other developing countries in Asia and Latin America. Findings indicate that literacy, urban residence, secondary school education, and modern employment reduce the duration of breastfeeding in Kenya. In addition, the subgroups of women who appear to be curtailing breastfeeding are growing in proportional size or are composed of women who may be innovators or leaders. A continuation of this pattern into the future may increase levels of infant morbidity and mortality and, in the absence of increased modern contraceptive practice, may increase the societal level of fertility.     

Socioeconomic and cultural differentials in age at marriage and the effect on fertility in Nepal

Age at marriage is one of the factors that influence the fertility behaviour of women, particularly in a society like Nepal where contraceptive use is low. Socioeconomic and cultural factors, particularly religion and ethnicity, are important variables in determining age at marriage in Nepal. Fertility was negatively related with age at marriage. Marriage duration had a greater influence on fertility than age at marriage, although these were strongly correlated.     

The role of place in shaping contraceptive use among women in Africa

Background

Contraceptive prevalence is low in the African region despite considerable family planning programmatic efforts. This study is the first to examine how community factors shape contraceptive use for married women in an entire region, comparing results across 21 African countries with a DHS in the last 5 years. The analysis builds on previous studies through an examination of the individual, household and community level factors that shape contraceptive use.

Methods

The data used in this analysis were from nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys completed between 2005 and 2009. A separate multi-level logistic model was fitted for the outcome of current modern contraceptive use in each country.

Results

After controlling for individual and household level factors, community level factors of demographics and fertility norms, gender norms and inequalities, and health knowledge remain significantly associated with contraceptive use, although the magnitude and direction of these community effects varied significantly across countries.

Conclusions

The results highlight the importance of harnessing community level factors in planning interventions for increasing access to and utilization of modern contraceptive methods.     

Determinants of cumulative fertility in Kenya

This paper analyses the effects of age at first marriage, level of education, place of residence, marriage disruption, religion, contraceptive use, and work status on cumulative fertility in Kenya, using data from the 1977-78 Kenya Fertility Survey. Age at first marriage is the main determinant of cumulative fertility, but there are significant effects of level of education and marriage disruption. Place of residence is only significant for the Coast province. The implication of the findings is that to promote any real decline in fertility, emphasis should be placed on providing higher education and work opportunities for young women as an alternative to early marriage.     

Contraceptive use dynamics of Asian women in Britain

In-depth interviews were conducted with married Asian women from Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi backgrounds, to investigate patterns of contraceptive use and influences on contraceptive decision making. The results show two distinctively different contraceptive 'lifecycles'. Non-professional women typically have little knowledge about contraception until after their marriage or first birth. Their patterns of contraceptive behaviour show low levels of contraceptive use until after their first birth, when condom use is most prevalent. Non-professional women are influenced by their extended family, religion and cultural expectations on their fertility and family planning decisions. Professional women show an entirely different pattern of contraceptive behaviour. They are more likely to have knowledge about contraception before marriage, use some method of contraception throughout their childbearing years (typically the pill) and cite personal, practical or economic considerations in their fertility decisions rather than religious, cultural or extended family influences.     

Kin influences on fertility in Thailand: Effects and mechanisms

It has been suggested that human mothers are cooperative breeders, as they need help from others to successfully raise offspring. Studies working under this framework have found correlations between the presence of kin and both child survival and female fertility rates. This study seeks to understand the proximate mechanisms by which kin influence fertility using data from the 1987 Thailand Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), a nationally representative sample of 6775 women. Kin influence is measured by the length of time couples live with the husband's or wife's parents after marriage. Event history analysis, multilevel modeling and structural equation modeling are used to investigate both fertility outcomes and potential pathways through which postnuptial residence may influence fertility outcomes, including employment status, maternal and child outcomes, contraceptive use, breastfeeding duration, and age at marriage. We show that living virilocally (with husband's kin after marriage) increases total fertility by shortening time from marriage to first birth, and increasing the likelihood of progression to each subsequent birth. These effects are mediated through correlations between virilocal residence and earlier age at marriage as well as delayed initiation of contraceptive use. We find no influence of husband's kin on maternal or child outcomes. Living uxorilocally (with wife's kin after marriage) also reduces age at marriage, shortens time from marriage to first birth and (marginally) improves child survivorship, but has no effect on other child and maternal outcomes or progression to subsequent births and results in a similar number of living children as women living neolocally.     

Female Employment Reduces Fertility in Rural Senegal

Economic growth and modernization of society are generally associated with fertility rate decreases but which forces trigger this is unclear. In this paper we assess how fertility changes with increased labor market participation of women in rural Senegal. Evidence from high-income countries suggests that higher female employment rates lead to reduced fertility rates but evidence from developing countries at an early stage of demographic transition is largely absent. We concentrate on a rural area in northern Senegal where a recent boom in horticultural exports has been associated with a sudden increase in female off-farm employment. Using survey data we show that employed women have a significantly higher age at marriage and at first childbirth, and significantly fewer children. As causal identification strategy we use instrumental variable and difference-in-differences estimations, combined with propensity score matching. We find that female employment reduces the number of children per woman by 25%, and that this fertility-reducing effect is as large for poor as for non-poor women and larger for illiterate than for literate women. Results imply that female employment is a strong instrument for empowering rural women, reducing fertility rates and accelerating the demographic transition in poor countries. The effectiveness of family planning programs can increase if targeted to areas where female employment is increasing or to female employees directly because of a higher likelihood to reach women with low-fertility preferences. Our results show that changes in fertility preferences not necessarily result from a cultural evolution but can also be driven by sudden and individual changes in economic opportunities.     

Changes in contraceptive use and fertility: Panama, 1976 to 1984

Abstract

From 1976 to 1984 important demographic changes occurred in Panama. The total fertility rate declined from 4.5 to 3.7, and contraceptive use amongmarried women 20–44 years of age increased from 55 per cent to 63 per cent. However, using data from three national level reproductive health surveys which were conducted in Panama in 1976, 1979, and 1984, we found that most of the changes took place between 1976 and 1979. Since 1979, overall contraceptive use and fertility have remained virtually unchanged, although there has been an important method‐mix shift toward an increase in the use of contraceptive sterilization and IUD's, with an accompanying decline in the use of oral contraceptives. Although the singulate mean age at marriage remained relatively constant, the average duration of breastfeeding rose 23 per cent during the period. Further gains in contraceptive prevalence and reduction in unplanned fertility in Panama will largely depend on enhanced program efforts first begun in the early 1970's by the Panama Ministry of Health. Future program efforts especially should be directed toward encouraging young couples to space their children more effectively by using temporary methods of contraception.     

Consanguineous marriage and differentials in age at marriage, contraceptive use and fertility in Pakistan

Fertility rates in Pakistan have remained consistently high over the past three decades. While numerous studies have examined sociodemographic determinants, the role of biological factors, and particularly consanguinity, has received little attention, even though marriage between close biological relatives continues to be the norm in Pakistan. Reproductive behaviour among women in consanguineous (first cousin) and non-consanguineous unions was compared, using data from a 1995 study of multi-ethnic communities in Karachi and the 1990-91 Pakistan Demographic & Health Survey (PDHS). The results show that, although female age at first marriage has been gradually rising in both study samples, women in consanguineous unions married at younger ages and were less likely to use modern contraceptive methods. In the Karachi sample, women in first cousin unions experienced a higher mean number of pregnancies and also reported a higher mean number of children ever born (CEB). However, their mean number of surviving children did not differ from those born to women in non-consanguineous unions, implying higher prenatal and/or postnatal losses in couples related as first cousins. On the other hand, the PDHS showed both lower CEB values for women in consanguineous marriages and a lower number of surviving children. Given the continuing popularity of consanguineous marriage, these findings have important implications for future fertility reduction in Pakistan.     

Life Expectancy and the Timing of Life History Events in Developing Countries

Life history theory predicts that greater extrinsic mortality will lead to earlier and higher fertility. To test this prediction, I examine the relationship between life expectancy at birth and several proxies for life history traits (ages at first sex and first marriage, total fertility rate, and ideal number of children), measured for both men and women. Data on sexual behaviors come from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Two separate samples are analyzed: a cross-sectional sample of 62 countries and a panel sample that includes multiple cross-sectional panels from 48 countries. Multivariate regression analysis is used to control for potential confounding variables. The results provide only partial support for the predictions, with greater support among women than men. However, the prediction is not supported in sub-Saharan African countries, most likely owing to the nonequilibrium conditions observed in sub-Saharan Africa with respect to life expectancy. The applicability of the model to understanding HIV/AIDS risk behaviors is discussed.     

Education as policy: the impact of education on marriage, contraception, and fertility in Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia

Using data from the World Fertility and Demographic and Health Surveys of Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia, we model the effects of education on three demographic outcomes: the timing of first sexual union, contraceptive use, and fertility. These effects are examined over time and across geographic areas using a multivariate framework. We find substantial improvements in female educational attainment over the last fifty years and a strong relationship between education and the demographic outcomes. Each successive increment in education is associated with declines in the marriage rate, increased contraceptive use, and lower fertility. Education accounts for some of the changes over time in the demographic outcomes, but the pattern varies by outcome, time period, and geographic area. In support of the social diffusion hypothesis, our results indicate that educational differences in reproductive behavior are reduced as the level of development increases and societies pass through their demographic transition.     

A note on the determinants of breastfeeding durations in an African country

This paper utilizes data from the 1977-78 Kenya Fertility Survey, 1 component of the World Fertility Survey, to analyze the determinants of breastfeeding durations for women 15 to 50 years old who had their last-but-1 live birth between 3 and 15 years prior to the interview. Comparisons are made with the findings fro m the World Fertility Surveys in 8 other developing countries in Asia and Latin America. Findings indicate that literacy, urban residence, secondary school education, and modern employment reduce the duration of breastfeeding in Kenya. In addition, the subgroups of women who appear to be curtailing breastfeeding are growing in proportional size or are composed of women may be innovators or leaders. A continuation of this pattern into the future may increase levels of infant morbidity and mortality and, in the absence of increased modern contraceptive practice, may increase the societal level of fertility. The death of the infant curtails the period of breastfeeding. Although there is a pronounced preference for male children in Kenya, this preference does not lead to differential durations of breastfeeding by sex of child. About 10% of Kenyan women used contraception in the last closed interval. Parity and age explain less than 1% of the variation in duration of breastfeeding in Kenya. Kenyan women are among the least likely to have attended secondary school, to have worked since marriage, and to have used modern contraception. The most traditional groups of Kenyan women, those who are Muslim or who are in polygamous unions, breastfeed for the longest durations. The Kenya Fertility Survey suggests that the subgroup of women with some secondary school education is growing considerably. Kikuyu women may be regarded as innovators in many respects. In addition to having shorter breastfeeding durations, they are the least likely to be in polygamous unions or to want more children, and they are the most likely to be using contraception.     

Rich-poor gap in utilization of reproductive and child health services in India, 1992-2005

This paper examines the trends in utilization of five indicators of reproductive and child health services, namely, childhood immunization, medical assistance at delivery, antenatal care, contraceptive use and unmet need for contraception, by wealth index of the household in India and two disparate states, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. The data from three rounds of the National Family and Health Survey conducted during 1992-2005 are analysed. The wealth index is computed using principal component derived weights from a set of consumer durables, land size, housing quality and water and sanitation facilities of the household, and classified into quintiles for all three rounds. Bivariate analyses, rich-poor ratio and concentration index are used to understand the trends in utilization of, and inequality in, reproductive and child health services. The results indicate huge disparities in utilization of these services, largely to the disadvantage of the poor. Utilization of basic childhood immunization among the poorest and the poor stagnated in India, as well as in both states, during 1998-2005 compared with 1992-1998. The use of maternal care services such as medical assistance at delivery and antenatal care remained at a low level among the poor over this period. However, contraceptive use increased relatively faster among the poor, even with higher unmet need. Of all these services, the inequality in medical assistance at delivery is consistently large, while that of contraceptive use is small. The state-level differences in service coverage by wealth quintiles over time are large.     

Stall in fertility decline in Eastern African countries: regional analysis of patterns,determinants and implications

We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the patterns of stall in fertility decline in four Eastern African countries. Contrary to patterns of fertility transition in Africa that cut across various socio-economic and geographical groups within countries, we find strong selectivity of fertility stall across different groups and regions in all four countries. In both Kenya and Tanzania where fertility decline has stalled at the national level, it continued to decline among the most educated women and in some regions. While fertility has remained at pre-transition level in Uganda over the past 20 years, there are signs of decline with specific groups of women (especially the most educated, urban and those in the Eastern region) taking the lead. For Zimbabwe, although fertility has continued to decline at the national level, stall is observed among women with less than secondary education and those in some of the regions. We link these intra-country variations to differential changes in socio-economic variables, family planning programme environment and reproductive behaviour models. The results suggest that declines in contraceptive use, increases in unmet need for family planning, increasing preferences for larger families, and increases in adolescent fertility were consistently associated with stalls in subgroup fertility across all four countries. These results are consistent with models that emphasize the role of declines in national and international commitments to family planning programmes in the premature stall in sub-Saharan fertility transition.     

Recent evidence on trends and differentials in Bangladesh fertility

Recent data from Bangladesh reveal evidence of some fertility decline. Although fertility increased among younger age groups between 1975 and 1983, it was offset by a decrease in fertility in the older age groups, resulting in a slight overall decrease in total fertility in 1983. Fertility was lower among urban residents, educated mothers and contraceptive users than among rural residents, uneducated mothers and contraceptive non-users, respectively, particularly in 1983.     

Sequence of events following adoption of contraception: An exploratory analysis of 1973 fertility history data

Abstract

Fertility histories from the 1973 United States National Survey of Family Growth are analyzed in the context of a model of contraceptive use based on a Semi‐Markov processes. This model provides a means of constructing data‐based estimates of probabilities of pregnancy following initial acceptance of a contraceptive method. The algorithm used to construct these estimates recognizes multiple intervals of contraceptive used prior to the events: pregnancy, marital dissolution, or sterilization.

Estimated probabilities of the events marital dissolution and pregnancy for women seeking to delay pregnancy are presented, as are probabilities of contraceptive sterilization for women seeking to prevent subsequent pregnancy. These estimates are compared to one‐step transition probabilities and directly observed NSFG data on pregnancy, marital dissolution, or contraceptive sterilization in an attempt to judge the validity of the model and to assess biases which may result from its use.