An Effective Automatic Procedure for Testing Parameter Identifiability of HIV/AIDS Models

Realistic HIV models tend to be rather complex and many recent models proposed in the literature could not yet be analyzed by traditional identifiability testing techniques. In this paper, we check a priori global identifiability of some of these nonlinear HIV models taken from the recent literature, by using a differential algebra algorithm based on previous work of the author. The algorithm is implemented in a software tool, called DAISY (Differential Algebra for Identifiability of SYstems), which has been recently released (DAISY is freely available on the web site ). The software can be used to automatically check global identifiability of (linear and) nonlinear models described by polynomial or rational differential equations, thus providing a general and reliable tool to test global identifiability of several HIV models proposed in the literature. It can be used by researchers with a minimum of mathematical background.     

Global identifiability of the parameters of nonlinear systems with specified inputs: a comparison of methods

The two methods available for analyzing the global structural identifiability of the parameters of a nonlinear system with a specified input function, the Taylor series approach and the similarity transformation approach, are compared and contrasted through application to three examples. It is shown that, as for linear systems, it is very difficult to predict which of the available methods will result in the least effort for a particular example. The role of modern symbolic manipulation packages in the analysis is assessed. The third example proves intractable using the similarity transformation approach as originally formulated, but the analysis is completed using a reformulation that exploits the polynominal form of the system equations in the example.     

An investigation of the sources of nonuniqueness in deterministic identifiability

While a choice of techniques exists for checking the deterministic (structural) identifiability of a specific linear, time-invariant model from a specific experiment, and some progress has been made towards topological criteria for identifiability, no method at present available allows quick and reliable checking of a range of models for globally unique identifiability from a range of experiments. Even individual cases are sometimes difficult and tedious to check. The reasons are examined by exhaustive case-by-case analysis of single-input experiments on all possible three-compartment models. All patterns of loss to the environment are covered, and all combinations of observed compartments. Catalogues of minimal observation sets for globally unique identifiability, and of nonuniquely identifiable cases, are presented. The structural causes of nonuniqueness are discussed by reference to examples from the latter catalogue. Methods are given for shortening the derivation of the structural equations giving rise to nonunique parameters. From the diversity of behavior found, it is concluded that the prospects of obtaining a comprehensive set of necessary and sufficient structural conditions for globally unique identifiability are poor.     

Similarity transformation approach to identifiability analysis of nonlinear compartmental models

Through use of the local state isomorphism theorem instead of the algebraic equivalence theorem of linear systems theory, the similarity transformation approach is extended to nonlinear models, resulting in finitely verifiable sufficient and necessary conditions for global and local identifiability. The approach requires testing of certain controllability and observability conditions, but in many practical examples these conditions prove very easy to verify. In principle the method also involves nonlinear state variable transformations, but in all of the examples presented in the paper the transformations turn out to be linear. The method is applied to an unidentifiable nonlinear model and a locally identifiable nonlinear model, and these are the first nonlinear models other than bilinear models where the reason for lack of global identifiability is nontrivial. The method is also applied to two models with Michaelis-Menten elimination kinetics, both of considerable importance in pharmacokinetics, and for both of which the complicated nature of the algebraic equations arising from the Taylor series approach has hitherto defeated attempts to establish identifiability results for specific input functions.     

Structural identifiability of a model for the acetic acid fermentation process

Modelling has proved an essential tool for addressing research into biotechnological processes, particularly with a view to their optimization and control. Parameter estimation via optimization approaches is among the major steps in the development of biotechnology models. In fact, one of the first tasks in the development process is to determine whether the parameters concerned can be unambiguously determined and provide meaningful physical conclusions as a result. The analysis process is known as 'identifiability' and presents two different aspects: structural or theoretical identifiability and practical identifiability. While structural identifiability is concerned with model structure alone, practical identifiability takes into account both the quantity and quality of experimental data. In this work, we discuss the theoretical identifiability of a new model for the acetic acid fermentation process and review existing methods for this purpose.     

Alternative to Ritt's pseudodivision for finding the input-output equations of multi-output models

Differential algebra approaches to structural identifiability analysis of a dynamic system model in many instances heavily depend upon Ritt’s pseudodivision at an early step in analysis. The pseudodivision algorithm is used to find the characteristic set, of which a subset, the input-output equations, is used for identifiability analysis. A simpler algorithm is proposed for this step, using Gröbner Bases, along with a proof of the method that includes a reduced upper bound on derivative requirements. Efficacy of the new algorithm is illustrated with several biosystem model examples.     

The structural identifiability of susceptible–infective–recovered type epidemic models with incomplete immunity and birth targeted vaccination

This paper considers the implications of a structural identifiability analysis on a series of fundamental three-compartment epidemic model structures, derived around the general SIR (susceptible–infective–recovered) framework. The models represent various forms of incomplete immunity acquired through natural infection, or from administration of a birth targeted vaccination programme. It is shown that the addition of a vaccination campaign has a negative effect on the structural identifiability of all considered models. In particular, the actual proportion of vaccination coverage achieved, an essential parameter, cannot be uniquely estimated from even ideal prevalence data.     

Compartmental analysis in photophysics: kinetics and identifiability of models for quenching of fluorescent probes in micelles

The parameters describing the kinetics of excited-state processes can possibly be recovered by analysis of the fluorescence decay surface measured as a function of the experimental variables. The identifiability analysis of a photophysical model assuming errorless time-resolved fluorescence data can verify whether the model parameters can be determined. In this work, we have used the methods of similarity transformation and Taylor series to investigate the identifiability of two models utilized to describe the time-resolved fluorescence quenching of stationary probes in micelles. The first model assumes that exchange of the quencher between micelles is much slower than the fluorescence decay of the unquenched probe (the 'immobile' quencher model). The second model assumes that quenchers exchange between the aqueous and micellar phases (the 'mobile' quencher model). For the 'immobile' quencher model, the rate constants for deactivation (k(0)) and quenching (k(q)) of the excited probe are uniquely identified together with the average number of quencher molecules per micelle. For the 'mobile' quencher model, the rate constants k(0) and k(q) are uniquely identified, as are the rate constants for entry (k(+)) and exit (k(-)) of one quencher molecule into and from a micelle, and the micellar aggregation number. The concomitant rate equations describing the time-resolved fluorescence are solved using z-transforms.     

Global identifiability of latent class models with applications to diagnostic test accuracy studies: A Gröbner basis approach

Identifiability of statistical models is a fundamental regularity condition that is required for valid statistical inference. Investigation of model identifiability is mathematically challenging for complex models such as latent class models. Jones et al. used Goodman's technique to investigate the identifiability of latent class models with applications to diagnostic tests in the absence of a gold standard test. The tool they used was based on examining the singularity of the Jacobian or the Fisher information matrix, in order to obtain insights into local identifiability (ie, there exists a neighborhood of a parameter such that no other parameter in the neighborhood leads to the same probability distribution as the parameter). In this paper, we investigate a stronger condition: global identifiability (ie, no two parameters in the parameter space give rise to the same probability distribution), by introducing a powerful mathematical tool from computational algebra: the Gröbner basis. With several existing well-known examples, we argue that the Gröbner basis method is easy to implement and powerful to study global identifiability of latent class models, and is an attractive alternative to the information matrix analysis by Rothenberg and the Jacobian analysis by Goodman and Jones et al.     

Structural identifiability of polynomial and rational systems

Since analysis and simulation of biological phenomena require the availability of their fully specified models, one needs to be able to estimate unknown parameter values of the models. In this paper we deal with identifiability of parametrizations which is the property of one-to-one correspondence of parameter values and the corresponding outputs of the models. Verification of identifiability of a parametrization precedes estimation of numerical values of parameters, and thus determination of a fully specified model of a considered phenomenon. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the parametrizations of polynomial and rational systems to be structurally or globally identifiable. The results are applied to investigate the identifiability properties of the system modeling a chain of two enzyme-catalyzed irreversible reactions. The other examples deal with the phenomena modeled by using Michaelis–Menten kinetics and the model of a peptide chain elongation.     

A PDMP model of the epithelial cell turn-over in the intestinal crypt including microbiota-derived regulations

Mechanistic models are a powerful tool to gain insights into biological processes. The parameters of such models, e.g. kinetic rate constants, usually cannot be measured directly but need to be inferred from experimental data. In this article, we study dynamical models of the translation kinetics after mRNA transfection and analyze their parameter identifiability. That is, whether parameters can be uniquely determined from perfect or realistic data in theory and practice. Previous studies have considered ordinary differential equation (ODE) models of the process, and here we formulate a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model. For both model types, we consider structural identifiability based on the model equations and practical identifiability based on simulated as well as experimental data and find that the SDE model provides better parameter identifiability than the ODE model. Moreover, our analysis shows that even for those parameters of the ODE model that are considered to be identifiable, the obtained estimates are sometimes unreliable. Overall, our study clearly demonstrates the relevance of considering different modeling approaches and that stochastic models can provide more reliable and informative results.

     

Structural identifiability of systems biology models: a critical comparison of methods

Analysing the properties of a biological system through in silico experimentation requires a satisfactory mathematical representation of the system including accurate values of the model parameters. Fortunately, modern experimental techniques allow obtaining time-series data of appropriate quality which may then be used to estimate unknown parameters. However, in many cases, a subset of those parameters may not be uniquely estimated, independently of the experimental data available or the numerical techniques used for estimation. This lack of identifiability is related to the structure of the model, i.e. the system dynamics plus the observation function. Despite the interest in knowing a priori whether there is any chance of uniquely estimating all model unknown parameters, the structural identifiability analysis for general non-linear dynamic models is still an open question. There is no method amenable to every model, thus at some point we have to face the selection of one of the possibilities. This work presents a critical comparison of the currently available techniques. To this end, we perform the structural identifiability analysis of a collection of biological models. The results reveal that the generating series approach, in combination with identifiability tableaus, offers the most advantageous compromise among range of applicability, computational complexity and information provided.     

Review: To be or not to be an identifiable model. Is this a relevant question in animal science modelling?

What is a good (useful) mathematical model in animal science? For models constructed for prediction purposes, the question of model adequacy (usefulness) has been traditionally tackled by statistical analysis applied to observed experimental data relative to model-predicted variables. However, little attention has been paid to analytic tools that exploit the mathematical properties of the model equations. For example, in the context of model calibration, before attempting a numerical estimation of the model parameters, we might want to know if we have any chance of success in estimating a unique best value of the model parameters from available measurements. This question of uniqueness is referred to as structural identifiability; a mathematical property that is defined on the sole basis of the model structure within a hypothetical ideal experiment determined by a setting of model inputs (stimuli) and observable variables (measurements). Structural identifiability analysis applied to dynamic models described by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is a common practice in control engineering and system identification. This analysis demands mathematical technicalities that are beyond the academic background of animal science, which might explain the lack of pervasiveness of identifiability analysis in animal science modelling. To fill this gap, in this paper we address the analysis of structural identifiability from a practitioner perspective by capitalizing on the use of dedicated software tools. Our objectives are (i) to provide a comprehensive explanation of the structural identifiability notion for the community of animal science modelling, (ii) to assess the relevance of identifiability analysis in animal science modelling and (iii) to motivate the community to use identifiability analysis in the modelling practice (when the identifiability question is relevant). We focus our study on ODE models. By using illustrative examples that include published mathematical models describing lactation in cattle, we show how structural identifiability analysis can contribute to advancing mathematical modelling in animal science towards the production of useful models and, moreover, highly informative experiments via optimal experiment design. Rather than attempting to impose a systematic identifiability analysis to the modelling community during model developments, we wish to open a window towards the discovery of a powerful tool for model construction and experiment design.     

Analysis of unique structural identifiability via submodels

The paper presents a sufficient and necessary condition for unique structural identifiability of linear compartmental models. By virtue of this result unique identifiability can be tested via the analysis of some submodels of the original model. Thus, the identifiability problem is reduced step by step to simpler and, finally, to rather trivial problems. In addition to the knowledge of the symbolic expression of the transfer-function matrix, the proposed method of full-rank submodels requires only some numerical rank determinations, and hence allows for a quick and interactive test for unique structural identifiability. The procedure also gives a lower bound on the number of different solutions.     

Identifiability from parameter bounds. Structural and numerical aspects

Some a priori and a posteriori aspects of the identifiability problem for unidentifiable models are discussed. It is argued that the nation of identifiability from parameter bounds has a minor a priori structural relevance. The parameter bounds rationale may prove a useful a posteriori numerical notion. However, its practical potentiality needs careful evaluation, as the use of point estimates automatically builds into the model some hidden structural constraints. Examples are given.     

On the identifiability of metabolic network models

A major problem for the identification of metabolic network models is parameter identifiability, that is, the possibility to unambiguously infer the parameter values from the data. Identifiability problems may be due to the structure of the model, in particular implicit dependencies between the parameters, or to limitations in the quantity and quality of the available data. We address the detection and resolution of identifiability problems for a class of pseudo-linear models of metabolism, so-called linlog models. Linlog models have the advantage that parameter estimation reduces to linear or orthogonal regression, which facilitates the analysis of identifiability. We develop precise definitions of structural and practical identifiability, and clarify the fundamental relations between these concepts. In addition, we use singular value decomposition to detect identifiability problems and reduce the model to an identifiable approximation by a principal component analysis approach. The criterion is adapted to real data, which are frequently scarce, incomplete, and noisy. The test of the criterion on a model with simulated data shows that it is capable of correctly identifying the principal components of the data vector. The application to a state-of-the-art dataset on central carbon metabolism in Escherichia coli yields the surprising result that only $4$ out of $31$ reactions, and $37$ out of $100$ parameters, are identifiable. This underlines the practical importance of identifiability analysis and model reduction in the modeling of large-scale metabolic networks. Although our approach has been developed in the context of linlog models, it carries over to other pseudo-linear models, such as generalized mass-action (power-law) models. Moreover, it provides useful hints for the identifiability analysis of more general classes of nonlinear models of metabolism.     

Construction of a large scale integrated map of macrophage pathogen recognition and effector systems

Background

Mathematical models provide abstract representations of the information gained from experimental observations on the structure and function of a particular biological system. Conferring a predictive character on a given mathematical formulation often relies on determining a number of non-measurable parameters that largely condition the model's response. These parameters can be identified by fitting the model to experimental data. However, this fit can only be accomplished when identifiability can be guaranteed.

Results

We propose a novel iterative identification procedure for detecting and dealing with the lack of identifiability. The procedure involves the following steps: 1) performing a structural identifiability analysis to detect identifiable parameters; 2) globally ranking the parameters to assist in the selection of the most relevant parameters; 3) calibrating the model using global optimization methods; 4) conducting a practical identifiability analysis consisting of two (a priori and a posteriori) phases aimed at evaluating the quality of given experimental designs and of the parameter estimates, respectively and 5) optimal experimental design so as to compute the scheme of experiments that maximizes the quality and quantity of information for fitting the model.

Conclusions

The presented procedure was used to iteratively identify a mathematical model that describes the NF-κB regulatory module involving several unknown parameters. We demonstrated the lack of identifiability of the model under typical experimental conditions and computed optimal dynamic experiments that largely improved identifiability properties.     

Metabolic isotopomer labeling systems. Part II: structural flux identifiability analysis

Metabolic flux analysis using carbon labeling experiments (CLEs) is an important tool in metabolic engineering where the intracellular fluxes have to be computed from the measured extracellular fluxes and the partially measured distribution of 13C labeling within the intracellular metabolite pools. The relation between unknown fluxes and measurements is described by an isotopomer labeling system (ILS) (see Part I [Math. Biosci. 169 (2001) 173]). Part II deals with the structural flux identifiability of measured ILSs in the steady state. The central question is whether the measured data contains sufficient information to determine the unknown intracellular fluxes. This question has to be decided a priori, i.e. before the CLE is carried out. In structural identifiability analysis the measurements are assumed to be noise-free. A general theory of structural flux identifiability for measured ILSs is presented and several algorithms are developed to solve the identifiability problem. In the particular case of maximal measurement information, a symbolical algorithm is presented that decides the identifiability question by means of linear methods. Several upper bounds of the number of identifiable fluxes are derived, and the influence of the chosen inputs is evaluated. By introducing integer arithmetic this algorithm can even be applied to large networks. For the general case of arbitrary measurement information, identifiability is decided by a local criterion. A new algorithm based on integer arithmetic enables an a priori local identifiability analysis to be performed for networks of arbitrary size. All algorithms have been implemented and flux identifiability is investigated for the network of the central metabolic pathways of a microorganism. Moreover, several small examples are worked out to illustrate the influence of input metabolite labeling and the paradox of information loss due to network simplification.     

The Extrapolation of Vapour–liquid Equilibrium Curves of Pure Fluids in Alternative Gibbs Ensemble Monte Carlo Implementations

Extrapolation schemes based on Taylor series expansion to determine the vapour–liquid equilibrium (VLE) curves of pure molecular fluids are presented for the NpH and μVL versions of the Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo (GEMC) simulations. The coexistence curves of the various configurational quantities can be expressed as Taylor series around the simulated equilibrium point as a function of pressure in the NpH version and chemical potential in the μVL version. The coefficients of the Taylor series are calculated from single GEMC simulations using Clapeyron-like equations and fluctuation formulas. A Padè approximant is used to widen the range where the extrapolation is accurate. These methods are demonstrated on atomic Lennard-Jones fluid. The procedure is found to be an accurate and useful tool to calculate wide sections of the VLE curves. With this procedure the saturation heat capacity can be directly determined using the calculated derivatives.