Sea ice loss increases genetic isolation in a high Arctic ungulate metapopulation

Sea ice loss may have dramatic consequences for population connectivity, extinction–colonization dynamics, and even the persistence of Arctic species subject to climate change. This is of particular concern in face of additional anthropogenic stressors, such as overexploitation. In this study, we assess the population‐genetic implications of diminishing sea ice cover in the endemic, high Arctic Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) by analyzing the interactive effects of landscape barriers and reintroductions (following harvest‐induced extirpations) on their metapopulation genetic structure. We genotyped 411 wild reindeer from 25 sampling sites throughout the entire subspecies' range at 19 microsatellite loci. Bayesian clustering analysis showed a genetic structure composed of eight populations, of which two were admixed. Overall population genetic differentiation was high (mean F_ST = 0.21). Genetic diversity was low (allelic richness [AR] = 2.07–2.58; observed heterozygosity = 0.23–0.43) and declined toward the outer distribution range, where populations showed significant levels of inbreeding. Coalescent estimates of effective population sizes and migration rates revealed strong evolutionary source–sink dynamics with the central population as the main source. The population genetic structure was best explained by a landscape genetics model combining strong isolation by glaciers and open water, and high connectivity by dispersal across winter sea ice. However, the observed patterns of natural isolation were strongly modified by the signature of past harvest‐induced extirpations, subsequent reintroductions, and recent lack of sea ice. These results suggest that past and current anthropogenic drivers of metapopulation dynamics may have interactive effects on large‐scale ecological and evolutionary processes. Continued loss of sea ice as a dispersal corridor within and between island systems is expected to increase the genetic isolation of populations, and thus threaten the evolutionary potential and persistence of Arctic wildlife.     

Forecasting changes in population genetic structure of alpine plants in response to global warming

Species range shifts in response to climate and land use change are commonly forecasted with species distribution models based on species occurrence or abundance data. Although appealing, these models ignore the genetic structure of species, and the fact that different populations might respond in different ways because of adaptation to their environment. Here, we introduced ancestry distribution models, that is, statistical models of the spatial distribution of ancestry proportions, for forecasting intra-specific changes based on genetic admixture instead of species occurrence data. Using multi-locus genotypes and extensive geographic coverage of distribution data across the European Alps, we applied this approach to 20 alpine plant species considering a global increase in temperature from 0.25 to 4 °C. We forecasted the magnitudes of displacement of contact zones between plant populations potentially adapted to warmer environments and other populations. While a global trend of movement in a north-east direction was predicted, the magnitude of displacement was species-specific. For a temperature increase of 2 °C, contact zones were predicted to move by 92 km on average (minimum of 5 km, maximum of 212 km) and by 188 km for an increase of 4 °C (minimum of 11 km, maximum of 393 km). Intra-specific turnover-measuring the extent of change in global population genetic structure-was generally found to be moderate for 2 °C of temperature warming. For 4 °C of warming, however, the models indicated substantial intra-specific turnover for ten species. These results illustrate that, in spite of unavoidable simplifications, ancestry distribution models open new perspectives to forecast population genetic changes within species and complement more traditional distribution-based approaches.     

Linking extinction-colonization dynamics to genetic structure in a salamander metapopulation

Theory predicts that founder effects have a primary role in determining metapopulation genetic structure. However, ecological factors that affect extinction-colonization dynamics may also create spatial variation in the strength of genetic drift and migration. We tested the hypothesis that ecological factors underlying extinction-colonization dynamics influenced the genetic structure of a tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum) metapopulation. We used empirical data on metapopulation dynamics to make a priori predictions about the effects of population age and ecological factors on genetic diversity and divergence among 41 populations. Metapopulation dynamics of A. tigrinum depended on wetland area, connectivity and presence of predatory fish. We found that newly colonized populations were more genetically differentiated than established populations, suggesting that founder effects influenced genetic structure. However, ecological drivers of metapopulation dynamics were more important than age in predicting genetic structure. Consistent with demographic predictions from metapopulation theory, genetic diversity and divergence depended on wetland area and connectivity. Divergence was greatest in small, isolated wetlands where genetic diversity was low. Our results show that ecological factors underlying metapopulation dynamics can be key determinants of spatial genetic structure, and that habitat area and isolation may mediate the contributions of drift and migration to divergence and evolution in local populations.     

A major shift in Daphnia genetic structure after the first ice‐free winter in a German reservoir

1. Climate warming may cause disruption of trophic linkages in aquatic ecosystems and lead to changes in abundance and genetic structure of zooplankton populations. We monitored the community of the Daphnia galeata‐hyalina hybrid complex in the Saidenbach Reservoir (Saxony, Germany) using allozyme electrophoresis for three consecutive years (2005–07), including one (2007) following an unusually warm winter that prevented the formation of ice cover for the first time in the history of the reservoir. 2. Genetic composition during the 2007 season differed substantially from the two preceding years that experienced the usual 3‐month ice period. Three abundance peaks in June, July and October 2007 were dominated by hybrids of Daphnia galeata x hyalina, whereas in the 2005 and 2006 seasons two peaks in June and September were dominated by Daphnia hyalina genotypes. 3. The genetic composition of the pool of diapausing eggs produced in autumn and the rate of change of genotype abundance during the following spring indicate recruitment of the D. hyalina subpopulation from ex‐ephippial animals during the spring population increase. 4. The differing potential to contribute to the overwintering animal pool or to the inoculum from diapausing eggs was confirmed by results from laboratory life‐table experiments. Daphnia galeata clones survived longer and produced parthenogenetic offspring under winter conditions, whereas D. hyalina clones showed a shorter lifespan and produced resting eggs. 5. Our results indicate a profound role of recruitment strategy in the observed shift in genetic composition. Increasing winter temperatures predicted in the context of climate change may thus favour overwintering animals, leading to an increase in the contribution of these genotypes to the population. Such microevolutionary processes may dampen possible seasonal mismatches between daphnid populations and their food or predator populations.     

Climate shifts the interaction web of a marine plankton community

Climatic effects in the ocean at the community level are poorly described, yet accurate predictions about ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions rely on understanding biotic responses in a food‐web context to support knowledge about direct biotic responses to the physical environment. Here we conduct time‐series analyses with multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models of marine zooplankton abundance in the Northern California Current from 1996 to 2009 to determine the influence of climate variables on zooplankton community interactions. Autoregressive models showed different community interactions during warm vs. cool ocean climate conditions. Negative ecological interactions among zooplankton groups characterized the major warm phase during the time series, whereas during the major cool phase, ocean transport largely structured zooplankton communities. Local environmental conditions (sea temperature) and large‐scale climate indices (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) were associated with changes in zooplankton abundance across the full time series. Secondary environmental correlates of zooplankton abundance varied with ocean climate phase, with most support during the warm phase for upwelling as a covariate, and most support during the cool phase for salinity. Through simultaneous quantitation of community interactions and environmental covariates, we show that marine zooplankton community structure varies with climate, suggesting that predictions about ecosystem responses to future climate scenarios in the Northern California Current should include potential changes to the base of the pelagic food.     

Local genetic structure of a montane herb among isolated grassland patches: implications for the preservation of genetic diversity under climate change

Habitat loss, fragmentation of meadow patches, and global climate change (GCC) threaten plant communities of montane grasslands. We analyzed the genetic structure of the montane herb Geranium sylvaticum L. on a local scale in order to understand the effects of habitat fragmentation and potential GCC impacts on genetic diversity and differentiation. Amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprinting and cpDNA sequencing was performed for 295 individuals of 15 G. sylvaticum populations spanning the entire distribution range of the species in the Taunus mountain range in Germany. We found patterns of substantial genetic differentiation among populations using 150 polymorphic AFLP markers (mean F _ST = 0.105), but no variation in 896 bp of plastid DNA sequences. While populations in the center of their local distribution range were genetically diverse and less differentiated, higher F _ST values and reduced genetic variability was revealed for the populations at the low-altitudinal distribution margins. Projections of GCC effects on the distribution of G. sylvaticum in 2050 showed that GCC will likely lead to the extinction of most edge populations. To maintain regional genetic diversity, conservation efforts should focus on the diverse high-altitude populations, although a potential loss of unique variations in genetically differentiated peripheral populations could lower the overall genetic diversity and potentially the long-term viability in the study region. This study documents the usefulness of fine-scale assessments of genetic population structure in combination with niche modeling to reveal priority regions for the effective long-term conservation of populations and their genetic variation under climate change.     

Fine-scale genetic population structure in a mobile marine mammal: inshore bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia

Highly mobile marine species in areas with no obvious geographic barriers are expected to show low levels of genetic differentiation. However, small‐scale variation in habitat may lead to resource polymorphisms and drive local differentiation by adaptive divergence. Using nuclear microsatellite genotyping at 20 loci, and mitochondrial control region sequencing, we investigated fine‐scale population structuring of inshore bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) inhabiting a range of habitats in and around Moreton Bay, Australia. Bayesian structure analysis identified two genetic clusters within Moreton Bay, with evidence of admixture between them (F_ST = 0.05, P = 0.001). There was only weak isolation by distance but one cluster of dolphins was more likely to be found in shallow southern areas and the other in the deeper waters of the central northern bay. In further analysis removing admixed individuals, southern dolphins appeared genetically restricted with lower levels of variation (AR = 3.252, π = 0.003) and high mean relatedness (r = 0.239) between individuals. In contrast, northern dolphins were more diverse (AR = 4.850, π = 0.009) and were mixing with a group of dolphins outside the bay (microsatellite‐based STRUCTURE analysis), which appears to have historically been distinct from the bay dolphins (mtDNA Φ_ST = 0.272, P < 0.001). This study demonstrates the ability of genetic techniques to expose fine‐scale patterns of population structure and explore their origins and mechanisms. A complex variety of inter‐related factors including local habitat variation, differential resource use, social behaviour and learning, and anthropogenic disturbances are likely to have played a role in driving fine‐scale population structure among bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay.     

Interactive effects of higher temperature and dissolved organic carbon on planktonic communities in fishless mountain lakes

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Long-term monitoring at multiple trophic levels suggests heterogeneity in responses to climate change in the Canadian Arctic tundra

Arctic wildlife is often presented as being highly at risk in the face of current climate warming. We use the long-term (up to 24 years) monitoring records available on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic to examine temporal trends in population attributes of several terrestrial vertebrates and in primary production. Despite a warming trend (e.g. cumulative annual thawing degree-days increased by 37% and snow-melt date advanced by 4–7 days over a 23-year period), we found little evidence for changes in the phenology, abundance or productivity of several vertebrate species (snow goose, foxes, lemmings, avian predators and one passerine). Only primary production showed a response to warming (annual above-ground biomass of wetland graminoids increased by 123% during this period). We nonetheless found evidence for potential mismatches between herbivores and their food plants in response to warming as snow geese adjusted their laying date by only 3.8 days on average for a change in snow-melt of 10 days, half of the corresponding adjustment shown by the timing of plant growth (7.1 days). We discuss several reasons (duration of time series, large annual variability, amplitude of observed climate change, nonlinear dynamic or constraints imposed by various rate of warming with latitude in migrants) to explain the lack of response by herbivores and predators to climate warming at our study site. We also show how length and intensity of monitoring could affect our ability to detect temporal trends and provide recommendations for future monitoring.     

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark–recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one‐in‐seventy‐year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long‐held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change.     

Species diversity and endemism in the Daphnia of Argentina: a genetic investigation

Although the temperate regions of South America are known to have a diverse daphniid fauna, there has been no genetic evaluation of the existing taxonomic system or of the affinities between the North and South American faunas. The present study analyses mitochondrial DNA sequences and allozyme variation to investigate species diversity in 176 Daphnia populations from Argentina. This work established the presence of at least 15 species in Argentina, six of which are either undescribed or are currently misidentified and two of which represent range extensions of North American taxa. Eleven of the Argentine species appear endemic to South America, while the remaining four also occur in North America. In the latter cases, the close genetic similarity between populations from North and South America indicates the recent exchange of propagules between the continents. While biological interactions and habitat availability have undoubtedly contributed to the observed species distributions, chance dispersal has apparently played a dominant role in structuring large-scale biogeographical patterns in this genus and probably in other passively-dispersed organisms.  © 2004 The Linnean Society of London, Zoological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2004, 140 , 171−205.     

The future of cold‐adapted plants in changing climates: Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) as a case study

Research has shown species undergoing range contractions and/or northward and higher elevational movements as a result of changing climates. Here, we evaluate how the distribution of a group of cold‐adapted plant species with similar evolutionary histories changes in response to warming climates. We selected 29 species of Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) representing the mountain and Arctic biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. For this analysis, 24,755 data points were input into ecological niche models to assess both present fundamental niches and predicted future ranges under climate change scenarios. Comparisons were made across the Northern Hemisphere between all cold‐adapted Micranthes, including Arctic species, montane species, and species defined as narrow endemics. Under future climate change models, 72% of the species would occupy smaller geographical areas than at present. This loss of habitat is most pronounced in Arctic species in general, but is also prevalent in species restricted to higher elevations in mountains. Additionally, narrowly endemic species restricted to high elevations were more susceptible to habitat loss than those species found at lower elevations. Using a large dataset and modeling habitat suitability at a global scale, our results empirically model the threats to cold‐adapted species as a result of warming climates. Although Arctic and alpine biomes share many underlying climate similarities, such as cold and short growing seasons, our results confirm that species in these climates have varied responses to climate change and that key abiotic variables differ between these two habitats.     

Long-term changes within the invertebrate and fish communities of the Upper Rhône River: effects of climatic factors

There is increasing evidence that the global climate change is already having measurable biological impacts. However, no study (based on actual data) has assessed the influence of the global warming on communities in rivers. We analyzed long‐term series of fish (1979–1999) and invertebrate (1980–1999) data from the Upper Rhône River at Bugey to test the influence of climatic warming on both communities. Between the periods of 1979–1981 and 1997–1999, the average water temperature of the Upper Rhône River at Bugey has increased by about 1.5°C due to atmospheric warming. In the same period, several dams have been built from 12.5 to 85 km upstream of our study segment and a nuclear power plant has been built on it. Changes in the community structure were summarized using multivariate analysis. The variability of fish abundance was correlated with discharge and temperature during the reproduction period (April–June): low flows and high temperatures coincided with high fish abundance. Beyond abundance patterns, southern, thermophilic fish species (e.g. chub, and barbel) as well as downstream, thermophilic invertebrate taxa (e.g. Athricops, Potamopyrgus) progressively replaced northern, cold‐water fish species (e.g. dace) and upstream, cold‐water invertebrate taxa (e.g. Chloroperla, Protoneumura). These patterns were significantly correlated with thermal variables, suggesting that shifts were the consequences of climatic warming. All analyses were carried out using statistics appropriate for autocorrelated time series. Our results were consistent with previous studies dealing with relationships between fish or invertebrates and water temperature, and with predictions of the impact of climatic change on freshwater communities. The potential confounding factors (i.e. dams and the nuclear power plant) did not seem to influence the observed trends.     

Unraveling hierarchical genetic structure in a marine metapopulation: A comparison of three high‐throughput genotyping approaches

Marine metapopulations often exhibit subtle population structure that can be difficult to detect. Given recent advances in high‐throughput sequencing, an emerging question is whether various genotyping approaches, in concert with improved sampling designs, will substantially improve our understanding of genetic structure in the sea. To address this question, we explored hierarchical patterns of structure in the coral reef fish Elacatinus lori using a high‐resolution approach with respect to both genetic and geographic sampling. Previously, we identified three putative E. lori populations within Belize using traditional genetic markers and sparse geographic sampling: barrier reef and Turneffe Atoll; Glover's Atoll; and Lighthouse Atoll. Here, we systematically sampled individuals at ~10 km intervals throughout these reefs (1,129 individuals from 35 sites) and sequenced all individuals at three sets of markers: 2,418 SNPs; 89 microsatellites; and 57 nonrepetitive nuclear loci. At broad spatial scales, the markers were consistent with each other and with previous findings. At finer spatial scales, there was new evidence of genetic substructure, but our three marker sets differed slightly in their ability to detect these patterns. Specifically, we found subtle structure between the barrier reef and Turneffe Atoll, with SNPs resolving this pattern most effectively. We also documented isolation by distance within the barrier reef. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the number of loci (and alleles) had a strong effect on the detection of structure for all three marker sets, particularly at small spatial scales. Taken together, these results illustrate empirically that high‐throughput genotyping data can elucidate subtle genetic structure at previously‐undetected scales in a dispersive marine fish.     

Broad-scale adaptive genetic variation in alpine plants is driven by temperature and precipitation

Identifying adaptive genetic variation is a challenging task, in particular in non-model species for which genomic information is still limited or absent. Here, we studied distribution patterns of amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) in response to environmental variation, in 13 alpine plant species consistently sampled across the entire European Alps. Multiple linear regressions were performed between AFLP allele frequencies per site as dependent variables and two categories of independent variables, namely Moran's eigenvector map MEM variables (to account for spatial and unaccounted environmental variation, and historical demographic processes) and environmental variables. These associations allowed the identification of 153 loci of ecological relevance. Univariate regressions between allele frequency and each environmental factor further showed that loci of ecological relevance were mainly correlated with MEM variables. We found that precipitation and temperature were the best environmental predictors, whereas topographic factors were rarely involved in environmental associations. Climatic factors, subject to rapid variation as a result of the current global warming, are known to strongly influence the fate of alpine plants. Our study shows, for the first time for a large number of species, that the same environmental variables are drivers of plant adaptation at the scale of a whole biome, here the European Alps.     

Adaptation to climate through flowering phenology: a case study in Medicago truncatula

Local climatic conditions likely constitute an important selective pressure on genes underlying important fitness‐related traits such as flowering time, and in many species, flowering phenology and climatic gradients strongly covary. To test whether climate shapes the genetic variation on flowering time genes and to identify candidate flowering genes involved in the adaptation to environmental heterogeneity, we used a large Medicago truncatula core collection to examine the association between nucleotide polymorphisms at 224 candidate genes and both climate variables and flowering phenotypes. Unlike genome‐wide studies, candidate gene approaches are expected to enrich for the number of meaningful trait associations because they specifically target genes that are known to affect the trait of interest. We found that flowering time mediates adaptation to climatic conditions mainly by variation at genes located upstream in the flowering pathways, close to the environmental stimuli. Variables related to the annual precipitation regime reflected selective constraints on flowering time genes better than the other variables tested (temperature, altitude, latitude or longitude). By comparing phenotype and climate associations, we identified 12 flowering genes as the most promising candidates responsible for phenological adaptation to climate. Four of these genes were located in the known flowering time QTL region on chromosome 7. However, climate and flowering associations also highlighted largely distinct gene sets, suggesting different genetic architectures for adaptation to climate and flowering onset.     

The influence of pool volume and summer desiccation on the production of the resting and dispersal stage in a Daphnia metapopulation

Dispersal is a key process in metapopulations, as migrants genetically connect populations and enable the colonization of empty habitat patches. Sub-populations may differ in their numerical contribution of migrants within a metapopulation. This has strong implications on evolutionary and ecological dynamics and has led to two different hypotheses about the Daphnia metapopulation studied here: the assessment by some authors is that sub-populations contribute equally to the production of migrants, while others have postulated long-lived core populations in large "mainland" habitat patches as the dominant source of migrants. We have studied the resting and dispersal stage (ephippium) in a natural Daphnia metapopulation and in mesocosm experiments, and tested for effects of habitat size and summer desiccation. We found that a 1000-fold increase in rock pool volume resulted on average in only in a 2.8-fold increase in ephippium production. Mesocosm experiments confirmed these results: a 1000-fold increase of the mesocosms' volume resulted in a 7.2-fold increase in ephippium production. Additionally, we showed that ephippium production did not depend on the initial population size. Thus, populations in small pools may contribute only marginal fewer potential migrants in the whole metapopulation than populations in large pools. In a second mesocosm experiment we found that summer desiccation, which is a typical occurrence in small pools, is not detrimental for the populations. Daphnia hatched out of ephippia that were produced earlier within the same season and built up viable populations again. The substantial production of ephippia by populations in small pools suggests that these populations might be important for both the dynamics and global stability of metapopulations.     

A range-wide genetic bottleneck overwhelms contemporary landscape factors and local abundance in shaping genetic patterns of an alpine butterfly (Lepidoptera: Pieridae: Colias behrii)

Spatial and environmental heterogeneity are major factors in structuring species distributions in alpine landscapes. These landscapes have also been affected by glacial advances and retreats, causing alpine taxa to undergo range shifts and demographic changes. These nonequilibrium population dynamics have the potential to obscure the effects of environmental factors on the distribution of genetic variation. Here, we investigate how demographic change and environmental factors influence genetic variation in the alpine butterfly Colias behrii. Data from 14 microsatellite loci provide evidence of bottlenecks in all population samples. We test several alternative models of demography using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), with the results favouring a model in which a recent bottleneck precedes rapid population growth. Applying independent calibrations to microsatellite loci and a nuclear gene, we estimate that this bottleneck affected both northern and southern populations 531–281 years ago, coinciding with a period of global cooling. Using regression approaches, we attempt to separate the effects of population structure, geographical distance and landscape on patterns of population genetic differentiation. Only 40% of the variation in F_ST is explained by these models, with geographical distance and least‐cost distance among meadow patches selected as the best predictors. Various measures of genetic diversity within populations are also decoupled from estimates of local abundance and habitat patch characteristics. Our results demonstrate that demographic change can have a disproportionate influence on genetic diversity in alpine species, contrasting with other studies that suggest landscape features control contemporary demographic processes in high‐elevation environments.     

Tracking climate change in a dispersal-limited species: reduced spatial and genetic connectivity in a montane salamander

Tropical montane taxa are often locally adapted to very specific climatic conditions, contributing to their lower dispersal potential across complex landscapes. Climate and landscape features in montane regions affect population genetic structure in predictable ways, yet few empirical studies quantify the effects of both factors in shaping genetic structure of montane-adapted taxa. Here, we considered temporal and spatial variability in climate to explain contemporary genetic differentiation between populations of the montane salamander, Pseudoeurycea leprosa. Specifically, we used ecological niche modelling (ENM) and measured spatial connectivity and gene flow (using both mtDNA and microsatellite markers) across extant populations of P. leprosa in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TVB). Our results indicate significant spatial and genetic isolation among populations, but we cannot distinguish between isolation by distance over time or current landscape barriers as mechanisms shaping population genetic divergences. Combining ecological niche modelling, spatial connectivity analyses, and historical and contemporary genetic signatures from different classes of genetic markers allows for inference of historical evolutionary processes and predictions of the impacts future climate change will have on the genetic diversity of montane taxa with low dispersal rates. Pseudoeurycea leprosa is one montane species among many endemic to this region and thus is a case study for the continued persistence of spatially and genetically isolated populations in the highly biodiverse TVB of central Mexico.