Climatic trends and advancing spring flight of butterflies in lowland California

Many studies, largely from cool‐temperate latitudes, have investigated the relationship between the timing of biological events and changes in climatic conditions during the past few decades. Relatively little is known about the response of plants and animals at lower latitudes. Here we show that the average first spring flight of 23 butterfly species in the Central Valley of California has advanced to an earlier date over the past 31 years. Among the species that have appeared significantly earlier, the average shift is 24 days. Climatic conditions (largely winter temperature and precipitation) are found to explain a large part of the variation in changing date of first flight. These results suggest a strong ecological influence of changing climatic conditions on a suite of animals from a mid‐latitude, Mediterranean climate.     

European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern

Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971–2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade⁻¹ in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species' phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding months (mean advance of spring/summer by 2.5 days°C⁻¹, delay of leaf colouring and fall by 1.0 day°C⁻¹). The pattern of observed change in spring efficiently matches measured national warming across 19 European countries (correlation coefficient r =−0.69, P <0.001).     

Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species

Climate change can cause major changes to the dynamics of individual species and to those communities in which they interact. One effect of increasing temperatures is on insect voltinism, with the logical assumption that increases in surface temperatures would permit multivoltine species to increase the number of generations per year. Though insect development is primarily driven by temperature, most multivoltine insect species rely on photoperiodic cues, which do not change from year‐to‐year or in response to climate warming, to initiate diapause. Thus, the relationship between climate change and voltinism could be complex. We use a phenology model for grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), which incorporates temperature‐dependent development and diapause termination, and photoperiod‐dependent diapause induction, to explore historical patterns in year‐to‐year voltinism fluctuations. We then extend this model to predict voltinism under varying scenarios of climate change to show the importance of both the quality and quantity of accumulated heat units. We also illustrate that increases in mean surface temperatures > 2 °C can have dramatic effects on insect voltinism by causing a shift in the ovipositional period that currently is subject to diapause‐inducing photoperiods.     

Variable sensitivity of plant communities in Iceland to experimental warming

Facing an increased threat of rapid climate change in cold‐climate regions, it is important to understand the sensitivity of plant communities both in terms of degree and direction of community change. We studied responses to 3–5 years of moderate experimental warming by open‐top chambers in two widespread but contrasting tundra communities in Iceland. In a species‐poor and nutrient‐deficient moss heath, dominated by Racomitrium lanuginosum, mean daily air temperatures at surface were 1–2°C higher in the warmed plots than the controls whereas soil temperatures tended to be lower in the warmed plots throughout the season. In a species‐rich dwarf shrub heath on relatively rich soils at a cooler site, dominated by Betula nana and R. lanuginosum, temperature changes were in the same direction although more moderate. In the moss heath, there were no detectable community changes while significant changes were detected in the dwarf shrub heath: the abundance of deciduous and evergreen dwarf shrubs significantly increased (>50%), bryophytes decreased (18%) and canopy height increased (100%). Contrary to some other studies of tundra communities, we detected no changes in species richness or other diversity measures in either community and the abundance of lichens did not change. It is concluded that the sensitivity of Icelandic tundra communities to climate warming varies greatly depending on initial conditions in terms of species diversity, dominant species, soil and climatic conditions as well as land‐use history.     

Beyond gradual warming: extreme weather events alter flower phenology of European grassland and heath species

Shifts in the phenology of plant and animal species or in the migratory arrival of birds are seen as ‘fingerprints’ of global warming. However, even if such responses have been documented in large continent‐wide datasets of the northern hemisphere, all studies to date correlate the phenological pattern of various taxa with gradual climatic trends. Here, we report a previously unobserved phenomenon: severe drought and heavy rain events caused phenological shifts in plants of the same magnitude as one decade of gradual warming. We present data from two vegetation periods in an experimental setting containing the first evidence of shifted phenological response of 10 grassland and heath species to simulated 100‐year extreme weather events in Central Europe. Averaged over all species, 32 days of drought significantly advanced the mid‐flowering date by 4 days. The flowering length was significantly extended by 4 days. Heavy rainfall (170 mm over 14 days) had no significant effect on the mid‐flowering date. However, heavy rainfall reduced the flowering length by several days. Observed shifts were species‐specific, (e.g. drought advanced the mid‐flowering date for Holcus lanatus by 1.5 days and delayed the mid‐flowering date for Calluna vulgaris by 5.7 days, heavy rain advanced mid‐flowering date of Lotus corniculatus by 26.6 days and shortened the flowering length of the same species by 36.9 days). Interestingly, the phenological response of individual species was modified by community composition. For example, the mid‐flowering date of C. vulgaris was delayed after drought by 9.3 days in communities composed of grasses and dwarf shrubs compared with communities composed of dwarf shrubs only. This indicates that responses to extreme events are context specific. Additionally, the phenological response of experimental communities to extreme weather events can be modified by the functional diversity of a stand. Future studies on phenological response patterns related to climate change would profit from explicitly addressing the role of extreme weather events.     

Effects of nutrition and soil warming on stemwood production in a boreal Norway spruce stand

The boreal forest is expected to experience the greatest warming of all forest biomes. The extent of the boreal forest, the large amount of carbon contained in the soil, and the expected climate warming, make the boreal forest a key biome to understand and represent correctly in global carbon models. It has been suggested that an increase in temperature could stimulate the release of CO₂ caused by an increased decomposition rate, more than biomass production, which could convert current carbon sinks into carbon sources. Most boreal forests are currently carbon sinks, but it is unclear for how long in the future the carbon sink capacity of the boreal forest is likely to be maintained. The impact of soil warming on stem volume growth was studied during 6 years, in irrigated (I) and irrigated‐fertilized (IL) stands of 40‐year‐old Norway spruce in Northern Sweden. From May to October heating cables were used to maintain the soil temperature on heated‐irrigated plots (Ih and ILh) 5 °C above that on unheated control plots (Ic and ILc). After six seasons' warming, stem volume production (m³ ha^?1 a^?1) was 115% higher on Ih than on unheated (Ic) plots, and on heated and irrigated‐fertilized plots (ILh) it was 57% higher than on unheated plots (ILc). The results indicate that in a future warmer climate, an increased availability of nitrogen, combined with a longer growing season, may increase biomass production substantially, on both low‐ and high‐fertility sites. It is, however, too early to decide whether the observed responses are transitory or long lasting. It is therefore crucial to gain a better understanding of the responses of boreal forest ecosystems to climate change, and to provide data to test and validate models used in predicting the impact of climate change.     

Keeping up with a warming world; assessing the rate of adaptation to climate change

The pivotal question in the debate on the ecological effects of climate change is whether species will be able to adapt fast enough to keep up with their changing environment. If we establish the maximal rate of adaptation, this will set an upper limit to the rate at which temperatures can increase without loss of biodiversity.The rate of adaptation will primarily be set by the rate of microevolution since (i) phenotypic plasticity alone is not sufficient as reaction norms will no longer be adaptive and hence microevolution on the reaction norm is needed, (ii) learning will be favourable to the individual but cannot be passed on to the next generations, (iii) maternal effects may play a role but, as with other forms of phenotypic plasticity, the response of offspring to the maternal cues will no longer be adaptive in a changing environment, and (iv) adaptation via immigration of individuals with genotypes adapted to warmer environments also involves microevolution as these genotypes are better adapted in terms of temperature, but not in terms of, for instance, photoperiod.Long-term studies on wild populations with individually known animals play an essential role in detecting and understanding the temporal trends in life-history traits, and to estimate the heritability of, and selection pressures on, life-history traits. However, additional measurements on other trophic levels and on the mechanisms underlying phenotypic plasticity are needed to predict the rate of microevolution, especially under changing conditions.Using this knowledge on heritability of, and selection on, life-history traits, in combination with climate scenarios, we will be able to predict the rate of adaptation for different climate scenarios. The final step is to use ecoevolutionary dynamical models to make the link to population viability and from there to biodiversity loss for those scenarios where the rate of adaptation is insufficient.     

Differential responses to warming and increased precipitation among three contrasting grasshopper species

We conducted a field manipulation experiment to investigate developmental and demographic responses to warming and increased precipitation in three Inner Mongolian grasshopper species that differ in phenology (an early-season species Dasyhippus barbipes , a mid-season species Oedaleus asiaticus , and a late-season species Chorthippus fallax ). Infrared heaters were used for warming the ground surface by 1–2 °C above the ambient condition and periodic irrigations were applied to simulate a 50% increase in annual precipitation. We found that warming advanced the timing for egg hatching and grasshopper eclosion in each of the three species. However, grasshopper diapause and increased precipitation appeared to offset the effect of warming on egg development. Hatching and development were more strongly affected by warming in the mid-season O. asiaticus and the late-season C. fallax relative to the early-season D. barbipes . Warming by ∼1.5 °C advanced the occurrence of the mid-season O. asiaticus by an average of 4.96 days; while warming and increased precipitation interactively affected the occurrence of the late-season C. fallax , which advanced by 5.53 days. Our data and those of others suggest that most grasshopper species in the Inner Mongolian grassland are likely to extend their distribution northward with climate change. However, because of the differential response to warming we demonstrate for these species, the different grasshopper species are predicted to aggregate toward the middle period of the growing season, potentially increasing interspecific competition and grazing pressure on grasslands.     

Influence of experimental warming and shading on host–parasitoid synchrony

As the climate warms, many species are showing altered phenology patterns, potentially disrupting synchrony between interacting species. Recent studies have documented disrupted synchrony in plant–herbivore and predator–prey interactions. However, studies investigating climate‐related asynchrony in host–parasitoid interactions and exploring the relative responses of interacting hosts and parasitoids to climate change are lacking. This is an important gap in knowledge given the ubiquity of insect parasitoids and their importance in influencing the abundance and dynamics of their hosts. In the threatened marsh fritillary butterfly Euphydryas aurinia (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) and its specialized parasitoid, Cotesia bignellii (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) phenological synchrony (and consequently population fluctuations) are thought to be weather‐dependent. To assess the likely influence of climate and microenvironment change on synchrony between E. aurinia and C. bignellii, we experimentally manipulated the exposure of sensitive‐stage host larvae and parasitoid pupae to temperature (ambient or elevated) and shading (shaded or unshaded) regimes. We also analysed a 20‐year population dynamic dataset from the United Kingdom for E. aurinia to investigate whether population variations could be explained by interannual variations in the thermal and sunshine environment. Development times were affected significantly by the experimental temperature and shading treatments for E. aurinia but not for C. bignellii. However, the contrasting responses were insufficient to significantly affect host availability for parasitoids. In the field, thermal and sunshine conditions did not influence population fluctuations, and population variations across a large (UK‐wide) scale were uncorrelated. Changes to the thermal and sunshine environment of the magnitude investigated in our experiment and within the range experienced by wild E. aurinia populations over the last 20‐years thus seem unlikely to cause breakdown in host–parasitoid synchrony. We suggest that experiments investigating the mechanistic responses of interacting species to environmental change are needed to support the analysis and interpretation of observational data on species' phenology.     

Forecasting phenology under global warming

As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953–2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species'' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.     

CLIMBER: Climatic niche characteristics of the butterflies in Europe

Detailed information on species’ ecological niche characteristics that can be related to declines and extinctions is indispensable for a better understanding of the relationship between the occurrence and performance of wild species and their environment and, moreover, for an improved assessment of the impacts of global change. Knowledge on species characteristics such as habitat requirements is already available in the ecological literature for butterflies, but information about their climatic requirements is still lacking. Here we present a unique dataset on the climatic niche characteristics of 397 European butterflies representing 91% of the European species (see Appendix). These characteristics were obtained by combining detailed information on butterfly distributions in Europe (which also led to the ‘Distribution Atlas of Butterflies in Europe’) and the corresponding climatic conditions. The presented dataset comprises information for the position and breadth of the following climatic niche characteristics: mean annual temperature, range in annual temperature, growing degree days, annual precipitation sum, range in annual precipitation and soil water content. The climatic niche position is indicated by the median and mean value for each climate variable across a species’ range, accompanied by the 95% confidence interval for the mean and the number of grid cells used for calculations. Climatic niche breadth is indicated by the standard deviation and the minimum and maximum values for each climatic variable across a species’ range. Database compilation was based on high quality standards and the data are ready to use for a broad range of applications.It is already evident that the information provided in this dataset is of great relevance for basic and applied ecology. Based on the species temperature index (STI, i.e. the mean temperature value per species), the community temperature index (CTI, i.e. the average STI value across the species in a community) was recently adopted as an indicator of climate change impact on biodiversity by the pan-European framework supporting the Convention on Biological Diversity (Streamlining European Biodiversity Indicators 2010) and has already been used in several scientific publications. The application potential of this database ranges from theoretical aspects such as assessments of past niche evolution or analyses of trait interdependencies to the very applied aspects of measuring, monitoring and projecting historical, ongoing and potential future responses to climate change using butterflies as an indicator.     

Effects of climatic change on the phenology of butterflies in the northwest Mediterranean Basin

Phenological changes in response to climatic warming have been detected across a wide range of organisms. Butterflies stand out as one of the most popular groups of indicators of climatic change, given that, firstly, they are poikilothermic and, secondly, have been the subject of thorough monitoring programmes in several countries for a number of decades. Here we provide for the first time strong evidence of phenological change as a consequence of recent climatic warming in butterflies at a Spanish site in the northwest Mediterranean Basin. By means of the widely used Butterfly Monitoring Scheme methodology, three different phenological parameters were analysed for the most common species to test for trends over time and relationships with temperature and precipitation. Between 1988 and 2002, there was a tendency for earlier first appearance dates in all 17 butterfly species tested, and significant advances in mean flight dates in 8 out of 19 species. On the other hand, the shape of the curve of adult emergence did not show any regular pattern. These changes paralleled an increase of 1–1.5°C in mean February, March and June temperatures. Likewise, a correlation analysis indicated the strong negative effect of spring temperature on phenological parameters (i.e. higher temperatures tended to produce phenological advances), and the opposite effect of precipitation in certain months. In addition, there was some evidence to indicate that phenological responses may differ between taxonomic lineages or species with similar diets. We discuss the consequences that these changes may have on species' population abundances, especially given the expected increase in aridity in the Mediterranean Basin caused by current climatic warming. We predict that varying degrees of phenological flexibility may account for differences in species' responses and, for multivoltine species, predict strong selection favouring local seasonal adaptations such as diapause phenomena or migratory behaviour.     

Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming

There is strong correlative evidence that human-induced climate warming is contributing to changes in the timing of natural events. Firm attribution, however, requires cause-and-effect links between observed climate change and altered phenology, together with statistical confidence that observed regional climate change is anthropogenic. We provide evidence for phenological shifts in the butterfly Heteronympha merope in response to regional warming in the southeast Australian city of Melbourne. The mean emergence date for H. merope has shifted −1.5 days per decade over a 65-year period with a concurrent increase in local air temperatures of approximately 0.16°C per decade. We used a physiologically based model of climatic influences on development, together with statistical analyses of climate data and global climate model projections, to attribute the response of H. merope to anthropogenic warming. Such mechanistic analyses of phenological responses to climate improve our ability to forecast future climate change impacts on biodiversity.     

Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Experimental and modelling work suggests a strong dependence of olive flowering date on spring temperatures. Since airborne pollen concentrations reflect the flowering phenology of olive populations within a radius of 50 km, they may be a sensitive regional indicator of climatic warming. We assessed this potential sensitivity with phenology models fitted to flowering dates inferred from maximum airborne pollen data. Of four models tested, a thermal time model gave the best fit for Montpellier, France, and was the most effective at the regional scale, providing reasonable predictions for 10 sites in the western Mediterranean. This model was forced with replicated future temperature simulations for the western Mediterranean from a coupled ocean‐atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). The GCM temperatures rose by 4·5 °C between 1990 and 2099 with a 1% per year increase in greenhouse gases, and modelled flowering date advanced at a rate of 6·2 d per °C. The results indicated that this long‐term regional trend in phenology might be statistically significant as early as 2030, but with marked spatial variation in magnitude, with the calculated flowering date between the 1990s and 2030s advancing by 3–23 d. Future monitoring of airborne olive pollen may therefore provide an early biological indicator of climatic warming in the Mediterranean.     

Adult activity and temperature preference drives region-wide damselfly (Zygoptera) distributions under a warming climate

We analysed a recently completed statewide odonate Atlas using multivariate linear models. Within a phylogenetically explicit framework, we developed a suite of data-derived traits to assess the mechanistic distributional drivers of 59 species of damselflies in New York State (NYS). We found that length of the flight season (adult breeding activity period) mediated by thermal preference drives regional distributions at broad (10⁵ km²) scales. Species that had longer adult flight periods, in conjunction with longer growing seasons, had significantly wider distributions. These intrinsic traits shape species'' responses to changing climates and the mechanisms behind such range shifts are fitness-based metapopulation processes that adjust phenology to the prevailing habitat and climate regime through a photoperiod filter.     

Predicted warming and browning affect timing and magnitude of plankton phenological events in lakes: a mesocosm study

1. Aquatic ecosystems in Northern Europe are expected to face increases in temperature and water colour (TB) in future. While effects of these factors have been studied separately, it is unknown whether and how a combination of them might affect phenological events and trophic interactions. 2. In a mesocosm study, we combined both factors to create conditions expected to arise during the coming century. We focused on quantifying effects on timing and magnitude of plankton spring phenological events and identifying possible mismatches between resources (phytoplankton) and consumers (zooplankton). 3. We found that the increases in TB had important effects on timing and abundance of different plankton groups. While increased temperature led to an earlier peak in phytoplankton and zooplankton and a change in the relative timing of different zooplankton groups, increased water colour reduced chlorophyll‐a concentrations. 4. Increased TB together benefitted cladocerans and calanoid copepods and led to stronger top‐down control of algae by zooplankton. There was no sign of a mismatch between primary producers and grazers as reported from other studies. 5. Our results point towards an earlier onset of plankton spring growth in shallow lakes in future with a stronger top‐down control of phytoplankton by zooplankton grazers.     

Climate warming and reproduction in Chinese alligators

The Chinese alligator Alligator sinensis is a critically endangered species endemic to China, and one of the most endangered crocodilian species in the world. Like many other reptiles, important aspects of alligator biology such as foraging, timing of hibernation, breeding and the sex ratio of offspring are all affected by temperature variation. We examined the effects of long-term temperature change on oviposition dates and clutch sizes of the Chinese alligator in a semi-natural facility in southern China. Our study focused on two captive generations including an old breeding generation captured from the wild and a generation composed of their F1 offspring. Median oviposition date shifted to earlier in the year and mean clutch size was larger for both generations as the monthly mean air temperature in April increased over the 19 years of data collection. We observed a mean advance in oviposition date of 10 days for the old breeding generation from 1987 to 2005 and 8 days for both generations from 1991 to 2005. Correspondingly, clutch sizes for the two generations also increased during this period. There were no differences in median oviposition dates and clutch sizes between the two generations from 1991 to 2005. Our results suggest that Chinese alligators have responded to increasing global temperatures. Our findings also suggest that recent increasing global temperatures have the potential to have a substantial effect on Chinese alligator populations in the wild, thus prompting an urgent need for field monitoring of the effects of global warming on this endangered alligator species.     

Similarity and specialization of the larval versus adult diet of European butterflies and moths

Many herbivorous insects feed on plant tissues as larvae but use other resources as adults. Adult nectar feeding is an important component of the diet of many adult herbivores, but few studies have compared adult and larval feeding for broad groups of insects. We compiled a data set of larval host use and adult nectar sources for 995 butterfly and moth species (Lepidoptera) in central Europe. Using a phylogenetic generalized least squares approach, we found that those Lepidoptera that fed on a wide range of plant species as larvae were also nectar feeding on a wide range of plant species as adults. Lepidoptera that lack functional mouthparts as adults used more plant species as larval hosts, on average, than did Lepidoptera with adult mouthparts. We found that 54% of Lepidoptera include their larval host as a nectar source. By creating null models that described the similarity between larval and adult nectar sources, we furthermore showed that Lepidoptera nectar feed on their larval host more than would be expected if they fed at random on available nectar sources. Despite nutritional differences between plant tissue and nectar, we show that there are similarities between adult and larval feeding in Lepidoptera. This suggests that either behavioral or digestive constraints are retained throughout the life cycle of holometabolous herbivores, which affects host breadth and identity.     

Flowering range changes across an elevation gradient in response to warming summer temperatures

Many studies have demonstrated plant response to warming temperatures, both as advancement in the timing of phenological events and in range shifts. Mountain gradients are ideal laboratories for studying species range changes. In this study of 363 plant species in bloom collected in five segments across a 1200 m (4158 ft) elevation gradient, we look for changes in species flowering ranges over a 20-year period. Ninety-three species (25.6%) exhibited a significant change in the elevation at which they flowered from the first half to the second half of the record, with many of these changes occurring at higher elevations. Most of the species exhibiting the changes were perennial plants. Interestingly, though many changes in flowering range were specific to higher elevations, range changes occurred all across the gradient. The changes reported in this study are concurrent with significant increases in summer temperatures across the region and are consistent with observed changes around the globe.