EPISTASIS AND THE INCREASE IN ADDITIVE GENETIC VARIANCE: IMPLICATIONS FOR PHASE 1 OF WRIGHT'S SHIFTING-BALANCE PROCESS

Central to Wright's shifting-balance theory is the idea that genetic drift and selection in systems with gene interaction can lead to the formation of “adaptive gene complexes.” The theory of genetic drift has been well developed over the last 60 years; however, nearly all of this theory is based on the assumption that only additive gene effects are acting. Wright's theory was developed recognizing that there was a “universality of interaction effects,” which implies that additive theory may not be adequate to describe the process of differentiation that Wright was considering. The concept of an adaptive gene complex implies that an allele that is favored by individual selection in one deme may be removed by selection in another deme. In quantitative genetic terms, the average effects of an allele relative to other alleles changes from deme to deme. The model presented here examines the variance in local breeding values (LBVs) of a single individual and the covariance in the LBVs of a pair of individuals mated in the same deme relative to when they are mated in different demes. Local breeding value is a measure of the average effects of the alleles that make up that individual in a particular deme. I show that when there are only additive effects the covariance between the LBVs of individuals equals the variance in the LBV of an individual. As the amount of epistasis in the ancestral population increases, the variance in the LBV of an individual increases and the covariance between the LBVs of a pair of individuals decreases. The divergence in these two values is a measure of the extent to which the LBV of an individual varies independently of the LBVs of other individuals. When this value is large, it means that the relative ordering of the average effects of alleles will change from deme to deme. These results confirm an important component of Wright's shifting-balance theory: When there is gene interaction, genetic drift can lead to the reordering of the average effects of alleles and when coupled with selection this will lead to the formation of the adaptive gene complexes.     

PERSPECTIVE: THE THEORIES OF FISHER AND WRIGHT IN THE CONTEXT OF METAPOPULATIONS: WHEN NATURE DOES MANY SMALL EXPERIMENTS

We critically review the two major theories of adaptive evolution developed early in this century, Wright's shifting balance theory and Fisher's large population size theory, in light of novel findings from field observations, laboratory experiments, and theoretical research conducted over the past 15 years. Ecological studies of metapopulations have established that the processes of local extinction and colonization of demes are relatively common in natural populations of many species and theoretical population genetic models have shown that these ecological processes have genetic consequences within and among local demes. Within demes, random genetic drift converts nonadditive genetic variance into additive genetic variance, increasing, rather than limiting, the potential for adaptation to local environments. For this reason, the genetic differences that arise by drift among demes, can be augmented by local selection. The resulting adaptive differences in gene combinations potentially contribute to the genetic origin of new species. These and other recent findings were not discussed by either Wright or Fisher. For example, although Wright emphasized epistatic genetic variance, he did not discuss the conversion process. Similarly, Fisher did not discuss how the average additive effect of a gene varies among demes across a metapopulation whenever there is epistasis. We discuss the implications of such recent findings for the Wright-Fisher controversy and identify some critical open questions that require additional empirical and theoretical study.     

PHASE THREE OF WRIGHT'S SHIFTING-BALANCE THEORY

We examine the third phase of Wright's shifting-balance theory of evolution, the exportation by migration of favorable gene combinations from a fitter subgroup to the rest of the population. The equations are deterministic and are studied numerically. Most of the models studied involve 2–9 loci in which all intermediates between two extreme genotypes are equally unfit. If the favored combination consists of dominant alleles, it is usually fixed even if the migration rate is two orders of magnitude less than the selection coefficient, and if the combination is recessive, one order. Although Wright thought of migration as being essentially one-way, two-way migration does not significantly alter the results. We conclude that, whatever weaknesses the Wright theory may have, they are not in phase III.     

The molecular basis of dominance relationships: the case of some recent adaptive genes

A controversial debate in evolutionary biology has been to explain why deleterious mutations are usually recessive to their wild-type allele. For Fisher, dominance of the wild-type is the result of selection, whereas for Wright it is a mere consequence of the biochemical properties of physiological pathways. Over time, Wright's theory has appeared as the most appropriate, and Kacser and Burns explained why the widespread occurrence of recessive mutants is the inevitable consequence of the kinetic structure of enzyme networks. Does Wright and Kacser and Burns (W-K-B)'s theory apply for newly arisen adaptive genes? A survey of more than 70 studies shows that pesticide resistance conferred by mutations decreasing the affinity of the pesticide target-sites varies from complete recessivity to complete dominance. This review shows that dominance always has a purely physiological explanation that can be roughly, but not simply, predicted by W-K-B's theory. Thus, although W-K-B's theory remains powerful for predicting the recessivity of deleterious mutations involved in enzymatic pathways, no general theory emerges from the study of other situations, and molecular explanations are to be sought on a case by case basis.     

PEAK SHIFTS AND POLYMORPHISM DURING PHASE THREE OF WRIGHT'S SHIFTING-BALANCE PROCESS

The third phase of Wright's shifting-balance theory involves the export of adaptive gene combinations from one subpopulation to another. Previous results have demonstrated that this can occur at very low migration rates, but it has been argued that this simply reflects the ability of migration to overcome selection and fix any (even deleterious) alleles. Here, previous analyses are extended by concentrating on the critical balance between forward and reverse migration rates that still allows phase III to proceed. It is shown that selective advantage, dominance, recombination rate, and the number of loci all affect the ability of a genotype to invade and become fixed in a new subpopulation, but it is unlikely that phase III will occur in the absence of differential migration unless the invading genotype consists of a few dominant loci with a large selection advantage, spreading into a few populations of lower fitness. Therefore, as was envisioned by Wright, differential migration from more to less fit populations will be necessary for phase III to occur under most circumstances.     

Potential bias in inbreeding depression estimates when using pedigree relationships to assess the degree of homozygosity for loci under selection

A potential bias in estimation of inbreeding depression when using pedigree relationships to assess the degree of homozygosity for loci under selection is indicated. A comparison of inbreeding coefficients based on either pedigree or genotypic frequencies indicated that, as a result of selection, the inbreeding coefficient based on pedigree might not correspond with the random drift of allelic frequencies. Apparent differences in average levels of both inbreeding coefficients were obtained depending on the genetic model (additive versus dominance, initial allelic frequencies, heritability) and the selection system assumed (no versus mass selection). In the absence of selection, allelic frequencies within a small population change over generations due to random drift, and the pedigree-based inbreeding coefficient gives a proper assessment of the accompanying probability of increased homozygosity within a replicate by indicating the variance of allelic frequencies over replicates. With selection, in addition to random drift, directional change in allelic frequencies is not accounted for by the pedigree-based inbreeding coefficient. This result implies that estimation of inbreeding depression for traits under either direct or indirect selection, estimated by a regression of performance on pedigree-based coefficients, should be carefully interpreted.Deceased     

Fisher’s historic 1922 paper On the dominance ratio

R.A. Fisher’s 1922 paper On the dominance ratio has a strong claim to be the foundation paper for modern population genetics. It greatly influenced subsequent work by Haldane and Wright, and contributed 3 major innovations to the study of evolution at the genetic level. First, the introduction of a general model of selection at a single locus, which showed how variability could be maintained by heterozygote advantage. Second, the use of the branching process approach to show that a beneficial mutation has a substantial chance of loss from the population, even when the population size is extremely large. Third, the invention of the concept of a probability distribution of allele frequency, caused by random sampling of allele frequencies due to finite population size, and the first use of a diffusion equation to investigate the properties of such a distribution. Although Fisher was motivated by an inference that later turned out to lack strong empirical support (a substantial contribution of dominance to quantitative trait variability), and his use of a diffusion equation was marred by a technical mistake, the paper introduced concepts and methods that pervade much subsequent work in population genetics.     

GENETIC CONSEQUENCES OF OUTCROSSING IN THE CLEISTOGAMOUS ANNUAL,IMPATIENS CAPENSIS. I. POPULATION-GENETIC STRUCTURE

We examined the genetic structure of 11 populations of Impatiens capensis, a cleistogamous annual herb, using starch gel electrophoresis. We sampled both cleistogamous (CL) and chasmogamous (CH) progeny (if present) from maternal parents in each population to infer maternal genotypes and to estimate the extent and pattern of inbreeding within and among populations. Only eight of 31 loci were polymorphic, with one to six (mean = 3.1) loci varying within each population. Mean heterozygosity per individual is quite low (mean = 3.9%) and comparable to highly self-fertilized species. Gene flow is low, and genetic distances do not parallel geographical distances, suggesting a population structure similar to Wright's Island model with drift among the populations. Fixation indexes within populations (f? or F_IS) span the largest range yet reported for a plant species (0.26 to 0.94, mean = 0.57). Further inbreeding results from population substructuring , resulting in a total average inbreeding coefficient (F? or F_IT) of 0.77. Despite these high overall levels of inbreeding, chasmogamy significantly reduces fixation, which may account for the observed greater fitness of CH progeny.     

VARIANCE-INDUCED PEAK SHIFTS

The increase in phenotypic variance that occurs in some populations as a result of bottlenecks and founder events can cause a dramatic increase in the probability of a peak shift from one adaptive state to another. Periods of small population size allow drift in the amount of phenotypic variance. Increases in phenotypic variance, coupled with a constant individual fitness function with multiple peaks, can cause the mean fitness landscape to change from bimodal to unimodal, thereby allowing the population's mean phenotype to change deterministically by selection. As the amount of phenotypic variance is returned to an equilibrium state, the multiple peaks reemerge, but the population has moved from one stable state to another. These variance-induced peak shifts allow punctuational evolution from one peak to another at a rate that can be much higher than that predicted by Wright's shifting-balance process alone.     

Single-crossover recombination and ancestral recombination trees

We consider the Wright–Fisher model for a population of $N$ individuals, each identified with a sequence of a finite number of sites, and single-crossover recombination between them. We trace back the ancestry of single individuals from the present population. In the $N \rightarrow \infty $ limit without rescaling of parameters or time, this ancestral process is described by a random tree, whose branching events correspond to the splitting of the sequence due to recombination. With the help of a decomposition of the trees into subtrees, we calculate the probabilities of the topologies of the ancestral trees. At the same time, these probabilities lead to a semi-explicit solution of the deterministic single-crossover equation. The latter is a discrete-time dynamical system that emerges from the Wright–Fisher model via a law of large numbers and has been waiting for a solution for many decades.     

Modeling Multiallelic Selection Using a Moran Model

We present a Moran-model approach to modeling general multiallelic selection in a finite population and show how it may be used to develop theoretical models of biological systems of balancing selection such as plant gametophytic self-incompatibility loci. We propose new expressions for the stationary distribution of allele frequencies under selection and use them to show that the continuous-time Markov chain describing allele frequency change with exchangeable selection and Moran-model reproduction is reversible. We then use the reversibility property to derive the expected allele frequency spectrum in a finite population for several general models of multiallelic selection. Using simulations, we show that our approach is valid over a broader range of parameters than previous analyses of balancing selection based on diffusion approximations to the Wright–Fisher model of reproduction. Our results can be applied to any model of multiallelic selection in which fitness is solely a function of allele frequency.NATURAL selection has long been a topic of interest in population genetics, yet the stochastic theory of genes under selection remains underdeveloped compared to the theory of neutral genes. Due to the interplay of stochastic and deterministic forces, models of selection present analytical challenges beyond those of neutral models, although a great deal of progress has been made with models that use diffusion approximations to a Wright–Fisher model of reproduction. Diffusion approximations with selection are, however, sometimes difficult to employ and always require assumptions about population parameters for tractability. These limitations suggest that there may be value in developing new methods of solving the problem of selection in a finite population, and here we do so using a Moran model of reproduction in place of the familiar Wright–Fisher model. Our approach has two major advantages over previous models: general applicability to a wide variety of selection models and accuracy over a broad range of parameter values. In this work, we propose new expressions for the full stationary distributions of allele frequencies under multiallelic selection, as well as expressions for average allele frequency distributions.We restrict our attention to exchangeable models of selection, meaning that relabeling the alleles will not change selective outcomes and thus that selection will be a function of allele frequency rather than allele identity. Many models of selection can be transformed into frequency-dependent forms (Denniston and Crow 1990), and some common models of selection have the desired property of exchangeability. For example, symmetric overdominant selection, in which heterozygotes have a selective advantage over homozygotes but the specific genotype of homozygote or heterozygote has no further selective effect, can be expressed as frequency-dependent selection on individual (exchangeable) alleles, although the direct selection is actually on diploid genotypes. Many other proposed models of multiallelic balancing selection, in which substantial variation is maintained by selection, can be viewed in this way. Such models have been of particular interest because of the potential application to highly multiallelic systems found in nature, such as self-incompatibility (SI) loci in plants and the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) loci in vertebrates, and the desire to analyze these systems is a motivation for the present work. We now review some of the population genetic theory related to these systems.Early in the history of population genetics, Wright (1939) presented a somewhat controversial stochastic model of gametophytic self-incompatibility (GSI) genes, sparking much further theoretical and empirical work. An analytic theory of multiallelic symmetric overdominance was developed along similar lines to this early model (Kimura and Crow 1964; Takahata 1990) and has been used as an approximation to the unknown mode of selection in the MHC (Takahata et al. 1992). Drawing insights from these first two applications, other biological systems where balancing selection was posited, including sex determination in honeybees (Yokoyama and Nei 1979), fungal mating systems (May et al. 1999), and heterokaryon incompatibility in fungi (Muirhead et al. 2002), have also been modeled successfully using closely related approaches. Progress has been made in using these models to address genealogical (Takahata 1990; Vekemans and Slatkin 1994) and demographic (Muirhead 2001) questions, as well as extending the models into more complex modes of selection (Uyenoyama 2003) and reproduction (Vallejo-Marin and Uyenoyama 2008).Models of genetic variation under balancing selection have traditionally been focused on specific systems, such that extensions require entirely new analyses, and have also included a number of simplifying assumptions in the interest of mathematical tractability. For example, the symmetric overdominance model has been strongly criticized as an unrealistic approximation of MHC evolution (Paterson et al. 1998; Hedrick 2002; Penn et al. 2002; Ilmonen et al. 2007; Stoffels and Spencer 2008), and yet it has proved difficult to make finite-population models of any of the more realistic frequency dependence schemes using the same approaches. A constraint on further progress is the fact that the standard model of stochastic population genetics, the Wright–Fisher model, is in fact quite difficult to analyze.The Wright–Fisher model of reproduction employs nonoverlapping generations, so that for a diploid population of size N, all 2N allele copies are chosen simultaneously when forming a new generation of individuals. While it is straightforward to describe this reproduction scheme mathematically as a discrete-time Markov chain, that chain unfortunately appears intractable even in simple cases (Ewens 2004). Traditionally, then, diffusion approximations have been used to obtain quantities of interest, such as the equilibrium expected number of alleles, allele frequency spectra, and fixation probabilities and times. Diffusion approximations are derived in the limit , but are applicable to problems of finite N, provided that the strengths of other forces such as mutation and selection can be assumed to be weak, of O(N⁻¹) (Ewens 2004). Watterson (1977) derived such a diffusion approximation for multiallelic symmetric overdominance using these assumptions. More recently, as interest in population genetics has turned to problems of inference, Grote and Speed (2002) considered sampling probabilities under the diffusion approximation for symmetric overdominance, while Donnelly et al. (2001) and Stephens and Donnelly (2003) proposed computational methods for some asymmetric models.Although strong selection can be modeled using diffusion approximations by making the product of the population size and the selection coefficient (Ns) large, the assumption of weak selection is not in fact appropriate for the canonical biological systems of balancing selection. Specifically, selection coefficients are defined by the differences in fitness (the expected number of offspring) among individuals in the population at a given time. These differences may be large in systems such as GSI, where the fitness of a very common allele may be very small while the fitness of other alleles may be greater than one.In an attempt to deal with the extremely strong selection of gametophytic self-incompatibility, Wright''s (1939) original model focused attention on the dynamics of a single representative allele. He collapsed the influence of all other alleles into a single summary statistic: the homozygosity, F, which is a function of the frequencies of all alleles, and which Wright (1939) assumed to be constant. The analysis is essentially that of a two-allele system, using a one-dimensional diffusion analysis. This approach, while shown by simulation to be very effective in the appropriate parameter range (Ewens and Ewens 1966), received substantial criticism on mathematical grounds (Fisher 1958; Moran 1962; Ewens 1964b). Ewens (1964b), in particular, objected to the use of diffusion theory for GSI, pointing out that strong frequency-dependent selection violates the diffusion requirement that both the mean and the variance of the change in allele frequencies be small and of O(N⁻¹). Ewens (1964a) then applied Wright''s basic one-dimensional diffusion approach to modeling symmetric overdominance, but assumed that selection was weak and of O(N⁻¹) to stay within the strict limits of the diffusion approximation.Kimura and Crow (1964) and Wright (1966), on the other hand, presented alternative one-dimensional diffusion approximations to symmetric overdominance, closer in spirit to Wright''s original model of GSI, that did not make the weak-selection assumption. Watterson (1977) was concerned about both the inconsistencies of the approximations used in these models and the treatment of F as a constant rather than as a random variable dependent upon allele frequencies. Using his own multiallelic diffusion approximation for symmetric overdominance (Watterson 1977), he derived an alternative (small-Ns) approximation to the frequency of a single representative allele. We consider this approximation, as well as the best-known one-dimensional symmetric overdominance diffusion, the strong-selection approximation of Kimura and Crow (1964), in comparison with our alternative approach to deriving allele frequency spectra under general multiallelic selection with exchangeable alleles.To avoid the approximations required to employ Wright–Fisher/diffusion-based methods, we turn to an alternative model of reproduction in a finite population: the overlapping-generations model of Moran (1962). In the Moran model, a single allele copy dies and another reproduces in each time step, rather than all 2N allele copies simultaneously being replaced by offspring each generation. As in the Wright–Fisher model, this reproduction scheme is represented mathematically by a Markov chain. Unlike the Wright–Fisher model, however, the Moran model can sometimes yield tractable, exact solutions to the underlying Markov chain, without the need to resort to diffusion approximations. We exploit this trait to develop a new stochastic theory of multiallelic selection with minimal dependence on assumptions about population parameter values. Our method has the additional benefit of being flexible: it can accommodate any exchangeable model of multiallelic selection and either of two general models of parent-independent mutation, the infinite-alleles and k-allele models of mutation. Our Moran-model predictions agree well with the results of Wright–Fisher simulations.     

Explaining how and explaining why: developmental and evolutionary explanations of dominance

There have been two different schools of thought on the evolution of dominance. On the one hand, followers of Wright [Wright S. 1929. Am. Nat. 63: 274–279, Evolution: Selected Papers by Sewall Wright, University of Chicago Press, Chicago; 1934. Am. Nat. 68: 25–53, Evolution: Selected Papers by Sewall Wright, University of Chicago Press, Chicago; Haldane J.B.S. 1930. Am. Nat. 64: 87–90; 1939. J. Genet. 37: 365–374; Kacser H. and Burns J.A. 1981. Genetics 97: 639–666] have defended the view that dominance is a product of non-linearities in gene expression. On the other hand, followers of Fisher [Fisher R.A. 1928a. Am. Nat. 62: 15–126; 1928b. Am. Nat. 62: 571–574; Bürger R. 1983a. Math. Biosci. 67: 125–143; 1983b. J. Math. Biol. 16: 269–280; Wagner G. and Burger R. 1985. J. Theor. Biol. 113: 475–500; Mayo O. and Reinhard B. 1997. Biol. Rev. 72: 97–110] have argued that dominance evolved via selection on modifier genes. Some have called these “physiological” versus “selectionist,” or more recently [Falk R. 2001. Biol. Philos. 16: 285–323], “functional,” versus “structural” explanations of dominance. This paper argues, however, that one need not treat these explanations as exclusive. While one can disagree about the most likely evolutionary explanation of dominance, as Wright and Fisher did, offering a “physiological” or developmental explanation of dominance does not render dominance “epiphenomenal,” nor show that evolutionary considerations are irrelevant to the maintenance of dominance, as some [Kacser H. and Burns J.A. 1981. Genetics 97: 639–666] have argued. Recent work [Gilchrist M.A. and Nijhout H.F. 2001. Genetics 159: 423–432] illustrates how biological explanation is a multi-level task, requiring both a “top-down” approach to understanding how a pattern of inheritance or trait might be maintained in populations, as well as “bottom-up” modeling of the dynamics of gene expression.     

The Action of Purifying Selection,Mutation and Drift on Fitness Epistatic Systems

For different fitness mutational models, with epistasis introduced, we simulated the consequences of drift (D scenario) or mutation, selection, and drift (MSD scenario) in populations at the MSD balance subsequently subjected to bottlenecks of size N = 2, 10, 50 during 100 generations. No “conversion” of nonadditive into additive variance was observed, all components of the fitness genetic variance initially increasing with the inbreeding coefficient F and subsequently decreasing to zero (D) or to an equilibrium value (MSD). In the D scenario, epistasis had no appreciable effect on inbreeding depression and that on the temporal change of variance components was relevant only for high rates of strong epistatic mutation. In parallel, between-line differentiation in mean fitness accelerated with F and that in additive variance reached a maximum at F ∼ 0.6–0.7, both processes being intensified by strong epistasis. In the MSD scenario, however, the increase in additive variance was smaller, as it was used by selection to purge inbreeding depression (N ≥ 10), and selection prevented between-line differentiation. Epistasis, either synergistic or antagonistic (this leading to multiple adaptive peaks), had no appreciable effect on MSD results nor, therefore, on the evolutionary rate of fitness change.THE roles of genetic drift and natural selection in shaping the genetic variation of fitness due to segregation at epistatic loci have often been discussed since Wright''s (1931) pioneering treatment of the subject. In general, the pertinent analyses have been usually elaborated within an analytical framework where changes in the mean and the components of the genetic variance exclusively due to drift were first considered, this being followed by an examination of the conditions that may subsequently allow for a more rapid selection response and/or facilitate the movement of populations to new adaptive peaks.Theoretically, it is well known that the contribution of neutral additive loci to the additive genetic variance of metric traits in populations decreases linearly as the inbreeding coefficient F increases, until it ultimately vanishes when fixation is attained (Wright 1951). For neutral nonadditive loci, however, that contribution may initially increase until a critical F value is reached and then subsequently decline to zero. This is the case of simple dominant loci (Robertson 1952; Willis and Orr 1993), and it also applies to two-locus models showing either additive × additive epistasis (Cockerham and Tachida 1988; Goodnight 1988) or more complex epistasis involving dominance at the single-locus level (Cheverud and Routman 1996; López-Fanjul et al. 1999, 2000; Goodnight 2000). Furthermore, those models have been extended to cover multiple additive × additive epistatic systems (Barton and Turelli 2004, López-Fanjul et al. 2006).In parallel, laboratory experiments have also studied the impact of population bottlenecks on the additive variance of metric traits (see reviews by López-Fanjul et al. 2003 and Van Buskirk and Willi 2006). For morphological traits not strongly correlated with fitness, a decrease in their additive variance together with little or no inbreeding depression was often observed, both results being compatible with the corresponding additive expectations and suggesting that the standing variation of those traits is mainly controlled by quasi-neutral additive alleles. Using typical estimates of mutational parameters, Zhang et al. (2004) showed that these experimental results can be explained by assuming a model of pleiotropic and real stabilizing selection acting on the pertinent trait. On the other hand, life-history traits closely connected to fitness usually show strong inbreeding depression and a dramatic increase in additive variance after a brief period of inbreeding or bottlenecking, indicating that much of that variance should be due to deleterious recessive alleles segregating at low frequencies. However, it should be kept in mind that experimental results cannot discern between simple dominance and dominance with additional epistasis as causes of inbreeding-induced changes in the additive variance.In their discussion of the shifting-balance theory (Wright 1931), Wade and Goodnight emphasized the evolutionary importance of the “conversion” of epistatic variance into additive variance, proposing that drift-induced excesses in the additive variance for fitness available to selection could enhance the potential for local adaptation, a phenomenon that was not discussed in the original formulation of Wright''s theory (Wade and Goodnight 1998; Goodnight and Wade 2000; but see Coyne et al. 1997, 2000). However, the additive variance is inflated only under restrictive conditions that often involve low-frequency deleterious recessive alleles (Robertson 1952; López-Fanjul et al. 2002), so that a drift-induced excess in the additive variance of fitness will be associated with inbreeding depression and, therefore, it is unlikely to produce a net increase in the adaptive potential of populations. In addition, previous considerations were based on the theoretical analysis of the behavior of neutral genetic variation after bottlenecks, and the role of selection acting on epistatic systems controlling fitness has not been studied.In this article we used analytical and simulation methods to investigate the contribution of epistatic systems to the change in the mean and the genetic components of variance of fitness during bottlenecking, due to the joint action of mutation, natural selection, and genetic drift (MSD). To develop a biologically reasonable model, we assumed that mutations show a distribution of homozygous and heterozygous effects close to those experimentally observed in Drosophila melanogaster, and we imposed different types of epistasis on this basic system. The pattern and strength of epistatic effects on fitness is largely unknown, but synergism between homozygous deleterious mutations at different loci has often been reported in Drosophila mutation-accumulation experiments (Mukai 1969; Ávila et al. 2006). Therefore, we studied the consequences of synergistic epistasis in pairs of loci by increasing the deleterious effect of the double homozygote above that expected from the deleterious effects of the homozygotes at both loci involved. However, to explore the consequences of bottlenecking in a multiple-peak adaptive surface, we also considered cases of antagonistic epistasis where, at each pair of loci, the fitness of the double homozygote for the deleterious alleles was larger than expected. Of course, other epistatic models could also be considered, including those showing higher-order interaction effects, but the severe shortage of relevant empirical data makes the choice highly subjective and, consequently, we restricted our analysis to the simplest case. On the other hand, our procedure has the practical advantage of allowing the definition of epistasis by the addition of a single parameter to those describing the properties of individual loci.Our aim was to describe and analyze drift-induced changes in the components of the genetic variance of fitness, where neutral predictions will be reliable only during extreme and brief bottlenecks. For moderate bottleneck sizes or long-term inbreeding, it becomes necessary to consider the concurrent effects of natural selection both on the standing variation and on that arisen by new mutation. Moreover, the nature of the genetic variability of fitness in the base population, arisen by mutation and shaped by natural selection and drift, is critical for the assessment of the consequences of subsequent bottlenecks. For nonepistatic models, the genetic properties of the trait can be theoretically inferred from the pertinent mutational parameters and effective population sizes by assuming a balance between mutation, selection, and drift. This can be numerically achieved using diffusion theory, and reliable approximations can be easily calculated by analytical methods (García-Dorado 2007). Notwithstanding, the analytical study of the contribution of epistasis to the genetic properties of fitness at the MSD balance becomes particularly difficult and it must be complemented with computer simulation.     

PERSPECTIVE: A CRITIQUE OF SEWALL WRIGHT'S SHIFTING BALANCE THEORY OF EVOLUTION

We evaluate Sewall Wright's three-phase “shifting balance” theory of evolution, examining both the theoretical issues and the relevant data from nature and the laboratory. We conclude that while phases I and II of Wright's theory (the movement of populations from one “adaptive peak” to another via drift and selection) can occur under some conditions, genetic drift is often unnecessary for movement between peaks. Phase III of the shifting balance, in which adaptations spread from particular populations to the entire species, faces two major theoretical obstacles: (1) unlike adaptations favored by simple directional selection, adaptations whose fixation requires some genetic drift are often prevented from spreading by barriers to gene flow; and (2) it is difficult to assemble complex adaptations whose constituent parts arise via peak shifts in different demes. Our review of the data from nature shows that although there is some evidence for individual phases of the shifting balance process, there are few empirical observations explained better by Wright's three-phase mechanism than by simple mass selection. Similarly, artificial selection experiments fail to show that selection in subdivided populations produces greater response than does mass selection in large populations. The complexity of the shifting balance process and the difficulty of establishing that adaptive valleys have been crossed by genetic drift make it impossible to test Wright's claim that adaptations commonly originate by this process. In view of these problems, it seems unreasonable to consider the shifting balance process as an important explanation for the evolution of adaptations.     

A TEST OF THE ROLE OF EPISTASIS IN DIVERGENCE UNDER UNIFORM SELECTION

Five populations of Drosophila melanogaster have previously been shown to be replicably different in their responses to artificial selection for knockdown resistance to ethanol fumes (Cohan and Hoffmann, 1986). The present study tests whether this divergence could be attributed to the epistatic mechanism assumed by Wright's shifting-balance model of evolution, in which alleles favored in the genetic background of one population are not favored in that of another. If this were the mechanism of divergence, crosses between selected lines from different populations would be expected to yield an epistatic loss of the selected phenotype. However, all such crosses showed a good fit to an additive model with dominance. Divergence by an epistatic mechanism may also be associated with epistatic variance within populations, but no evidence for such epistasis was found. The populations therefore appear to have responded in different ways to selection not because of epistasis but because knockdown-resistance alleles that were common in some populations were absent (or at least less common) in others.     

Reproductive Value and Fluctuating Selection in an Age-Structured Population

Fluctuations in age structure caused by environmental stochasticity create autocorrelation and transient fluctuations in both population size and allele frequency, which complicate demographic and evolutionary analyses. Following a suggestion of Fisher, we show that weighting individuals of different age by their reproductive value serves as a filter, removing temporal autocorrelation in population demography and evolution due to stochastic age structure. Assuming weak selection, random mating, and a stationary distribution of environments with no autocorrelation, we derive a diffusion approximation for evolution of the reproductive value weighted allele frequency. The expected evolution obeys an adaptive topography defined by the long-run growth rate of the population. The expected fitness of a genotype is its Malthusian fitness in the average environment minus the covariance of its growth rate with that of the population. Simulations of the age-structured model verify the accuracy of the diffusion approximation. We develop statistical methods for measuring the expected selection on the reproductive value weighted allele frequency in a fluctuating age-structured population.THE evolutionary dynamics of age-structured populations were formalized by Charlesworth (1980, 1994) and Lande (1982) on the basis of earlier ideas of Fisher (1930, 1958), Medawar (1946, 1952), and Hamilton (1966), showing that the strength of selection on genes affecting the vital rates of survival or fecundity depends on their age of action (reviewed by de Jong 1994; Charlesworth 2000). Fisher defined the reproductive value of individuals of a given age as their expected contribution to future population growth, determined by the age-specific vital rates. This has the property that in a constant environment the total reproductive value in a population always increases at a constant rate. The total population size, however, undergoes transient fluctuations as the stable age distribution is approached, and the total population size only asymptotically approaches a constant growth rate (Caswell 2001).Environmental stochasticity creates continual fluctuations in age structure, producing temporal autocorrelation in population size and in allele frequencies, which seriously complicate demographic and evolutionary analyses. Fisher (1930, 1958, p. 35) suggested for analysis of genetic evolution that individuals should be weighted by their reproductive value to compensate for deviations from the stable age distribution. Here we apply this suggestion to study weak fluctuating selection in an age-structured population in a stochastic environment.One of the central conceptual paradigms of evolutionary biology was described by Wright (1932). His adaptive topography represents a population as a point on a surface of population mean fitness as a function of allele frequencies. Assuming weak selection, random mating, and loose linkage (implying approximate Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium within loci and linkage eqilibrium among loci), natural selection in a constant environment causes the population to evolve uphill of the mean fitness surface (Wright 1937, 1945, 1969; Arnold et al. 2001; Gavrilets 2004). Evolution by natural selection thus tends to increase the mean fitness of a population in a constant environment.Lande (2007, 2008) generalized Wright''s adaptive topography to a stochastic environment, allowing density-dependent population growth but assuming density-independent selection, showing that the expected evolution maximizes the long-run growth rate of the population at low density, . Here r is population growth rate at low density in the average environment and is the environmental variance in population growth rate among years, which are standard parameters in stochastic demography (Cohen 1977, 1979; Tuljapurkar 1982; Caswell 2001; Lande et al. 2003). In this model of stochastic evolution the adaptive topography describing the expected evolution is derived by expressing r and as functions of allele frequencies with parameters being the mean Malthusian fitnesses of the genotypes and their temporal variances and covariances. These results are based on diffusion approximations for the coupled stochastic processes of population size and allele frequencies in a fluctuating environment.Diffusion approximations are remarkably accurate for many problems in evolution and ecology (Crow and Kimura 1970; Lande et al. 2003). Because a diffusion process is subject to white noise with no temporal autocorrelation, the approximation is most accurate if the noise in the underlying biological process is approximately uncorrelated among years. Despite temporal autocorrelation in total population size produced by age-structure fluctuations, the stochastic demography of age-structured populations over timescales of a generation or more can nevertheless be accurately approximated by a diffusion process (Tuljapurkar 1982; Lande and Orzack 1988; Engen et al. 2005a, 2007). The success of the diffusion approximation for total population size occurs because the noise in the total reproductive value is nearly white, with no temporal autocorrelation to first order, and the log of total population size fluctuates around the log of reproductive value with a return time to equilibrium on the order of a few generations (Engen et al. 2007). Hence the diffusion approximation is well suited to describe the stochastic dynamics of total reproductive value as well as total population size.This article extends Lande''s (2008) model of fluctuating selection without age structure by deriving a diffusion approximation for the evolution of an age-structured population in a stochastic environment. Assuming weak selection at all ages, random mating, and a stationary distribution of environments with no temporal autocorrelation, we show that the main results of the model remain valid, provided that the model parameters are expressed in terms of means, variances, and covariances of age-specific vital rates and that allele frequencies are defined by weighting individuals of different age by their reproductive value, as suggested by Fisher (1930, 1958). We perform simulations to verify the accuracy of the diffusion approximation and outline statistical methods for estimating the expected selection acting on the reproductive value weighted allele frequency.     

Clearance of technetium-99m-DTPA and HRCT findings in the evaluation of patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

Background

Different lung function equipment and different respiratory manoeuvres may produce different Peak Expiratory Flow (PEF) results. Although the PEF is the most common lung function test, there have been few studies of these effects and no previous study has evaluated both factors in a single group of patients.

Methods

We studied 36 subjects (PEF range 80–570 l/min). All patients recorded PEF measurements using a short rapid expiration following maximal inspiration (PEF technique) or a forced maximal expiration to residual volume (FVC technique). Measurements were made using a Wright's peak flow meter, a turbine spirometer and a Fleisch pneumotachograph spirometer.

Results

The mean PEF was 8.7% higher when the PEF technique was used (compared with FVC technique, p < 0.0001). The mean PEF recorded with the turbine spirometer was 5.5% lower than the Wright meter reading. The Fleisch spirometer result was 19.5% lower than the Wright reading. However, adjustment of the Wrights measurements from the traditional Wright's scale to the new EU Peak Flow scale produced results that were only 7.2% higher than the Fleisch pneumotachograph measurements.

Conclusion

Peak flow measurements are affected by the instruction given and by the device and Peak Flow scale used. Patient management decisions should not be based on PEF measurement made on different instruments.     

Fisherian and Wrightian theories of speciation

Fisher's theory of sexual selection, Wright's shifting-balance theory, and recent models based on them are reviewed as mechanisms of animal speciation. The joint evolution of mating preferences and secondary sexual characters can cause rapid nonadaptive phenotypic divergence and premating isolation between geographically separated populations, or along a cline. Extensive comparative data on Drosophila species support the suggestion of R. A. Fisher and T. Dobzhansky that the evolution of mating preferences can reinforce partial postmating isolation between sympatric populations. The interaction of natural selection and random genetic drift in local populations with a small effective size can produce a rapid transition between relatively stable phenotypes separated by an adaptive valley, or between chromosomal rearrangements with a heterozygote disadvantage. Large demographic fluctuations, such as frequent random local extinction and colonization, are required for the rapid spread of new adaptations (or karyotypes) when intermediate phenotypes (or rearrangement heterozygotes) are selected against.     

Refinements to the partitioning of the inbred genotypic variance

Natural gene flow is often localised because of gamete dispersal limitations, and the quantity and structure of the genotypic variance in such populations is a key to predicting the advance from selection, in both evolution and artificial breeding programmes. Earlier derivations of this variance have shown that the total dominance variance may increase with inbreeding despite the fact that heterozygosity is decreasing. This anomaly has been corrected following the de novo biometrical derivation presented in this paper. The whole population also subdivides into descendant lineages that differ in allele frequencies and means because of the dispersion caused by genetic drift and continuing localisation of gamodemes. The paper defines for the first time the among-line and within-line partitions of the dominance variance; and corrects anomalies in the total genic (additive genetic) variance, and its underlying inbred average alle-substitution effect. The revisions also clarify the connections between the Fisher-Falconer, Mather-Hayman, and Wright approaches to defining the inbred genotypic variance. Relationships are discussed between the population dispersion structure and genetic efficiency in selection.