Modeling Dynamics of Cell-to-Cell Variability in TRAIL-Induced Apoptosis Explains Fractional Killing and Predicts Reversible Resistance

Isogenic cells sensing identical external signals can take markedly different decisions. Such decisions often correlate with pre-existing cell-to-cell differences in protein levels. When not neglected in signal transduction models, these differences are accounted for in a static manner, by assuming randomly distributed initial protein levels. However, this approach ignores the a priori non-trivial interplay between signal transduction and the source of this cell-to-cell variability: temporal fluctuations of protein levels in individual cells, driven by noisy synthesis and degradation. Thus, modeling protein fluctuations, rather than their consequences on the initial population heterogeneity, would set the quantitative analysis of signal transduction on firmer grounds. Adopting this dynamical view on cell-to-cell differences amounts to recast extrinsic variability into intrinsic noise. Here, we propose a generic approach to merge, in a systematic and principled manner, signal transduction models with stochastic protein turnover models. When applied to an established kinetic model of TRAIL-induced apoptosis, our approach markedly increased model prediction capabilities. One obtains a mechanistic explanation of yet-unexplained observations on fractional killing and non-trivial robust predictions of the temporal evolution of cell resistance to TRAIL in HeLa cells. Our results provide an alternative explanation to survival via induction of survival pathways since no TRAIL-induced regulations are needed and suggest that short-lived anti-apoptotic protein Mcl1 exhibit large and rare fluctuations. More generally, our results highlight the importance of accounting for stochastic protein turnover to quantitatively understand signal transduction over extended durations, and imply that fluctuations of short-lived proteins deserve particular attention.     

From single-cell genetic architecture to cell population dynamics: quantitatively decomposing the effects of different population heterogeneity sources for a genetic network with positive feedback architecture

Phenotypic cell-to-cell variability or cell population heterogeneity originates from two fundamentally different sources: unequal partitioning of cellular material at cell division and stochastic fluctuations associated with intracellular reactions. We developed a mathematical and computational framework that can quantitatively isolate both heterogeneity sources and applied it to a genetic network with positive feedback architecture. The framework consists of three vastly different mathematical formulations: a), a continuum model, which completely neglects population heterogeneity; b), a deterministic cell population balance model, which accounts for population heterogeneity originating only from unequal partitioning at cell division; and c), a fully stochastic model accommodating both sources of population heterogeneity. The framework enables the quantitative decomposition of the effects of the different population heterogeneity sources on system behavior. Our results indicate the importance of cell population heterogeneity in accurately predicting even average population properties. Moreover, we find that unequal partitioning at cell division and sharp division rates shrink the region of the parameter space where the population exhibits bistable behavior, a characteristic feature of networks with positive feedback architecture. In addition, intrinsic noise at the single-cell level due to slow operator fluctuations and small numbers of molecules further contributes toward the shrinkage of the bistability regime at the cell population level. Finally, the effect of intrinsic noise at the cell population level was found to be markedly different than at the single-cell level, emphasizing the importance of simulating entire cell populations and not just individual cells to understand the complex interplay between single-cell genetic architecture and behavior at the cell population level.     

Cellular heterogeneity: yeast-side story

A major challenge for cells lies in their ability to detect, respond and adapt to changing environments that may threaten their survival. Among the numerous evolutionary strategies, cell-to-cell heterogeneity allows the emergence of different phenotypes within a population. This variability in cellular behaviors can be essential for a small fraction of cells to adapt and survive in various environments. Analyses at the single-cell level have allowed to highlight the great variability that is present between cells within an isogenic population. Numerous molecular mechanisms have been uncovered, allowing to understand the emergence and the role of cellular heterogeneity. These attempts at identifying the source of cellular noise have also provided clues for strategies needed to control heterogeneity. In this review, S. cerevisiae is used as an example to illustrate the different factors leading to cell heterogeneity, ranging from intracellular processes to environmental constraints. In addition, some recent strategies developed to modulate cell-to-cell variability are discussed.     

Noise propagation in two-step series MAPK cascade

Series MAPK enzymatic cascades, ubiquitously found in signaling networks, act as signal amplifiers and play a key role in processing information during signal transduction in cells. In activated cascades, cell-to-cell variability or noise is bound to occur and thereby strongly affects the cellular response. Commonly used linearization method (LM) applied to Langevin type stochastic model of the MAPK cascade fails to accurately predict intrinsic noise propagation in the cascade. We prove this by using extensive stochastic simulations for various ranges of biochemical parameters. This failure is due to the fact that the LM ignores the nonlinear effects on the noise. However, LM provides a good estimate of the extrinsic noise propagation. We show that the correct estimate of intrinsic noise propagation in signaling networks that contain at least one enzymatic step can be obtained only through stochastic simulations. Noise propagation in the cascade depends on the underlying biochemical parameters which are often unavailable. Based on a combination of global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and stochastic simulations, we developed a systematic methodology to characterize noise propagation in the cascade. GSA predicts that noise propagation in MAPK cascade is sensitive to the total number of upstream enzyme molecules and the total number of molecules of the two substrates involved in the cascade. We argue that the general systematic approach proposed and demonstrated on MAPK cascade must accompany noise propagation studies in biological networks.     

A Two-Pulse Cellular Stimulation Test Elucidates Variability and Mechanisms in Signaling Pathways

Mammalian cells respond in a variable manner when provided with physiological pulses of ligand, such as low concentrations of acetylcholine present for just tens of seconds or TNFα for just tens of minutes. For a two-pulse stimulation, some cells respond to both pulses, some do not respond, and yet others respond to only one or the other pulse. Are these different response patterns the result of the small number of ligands being able to only stochastically activate the pathway at random times or an output pattern from a deterministic algorithm responding differently to different stimulation intervals? If the response is deterministic in nature, what parameters determine whether a response is generated or skipped? To answer these questions, we developed a two-pulse test that utilizes different rest periods between stimulation pulses. This “rest-period test” revealed that cells skip responses predictably as the rest period is shortened. By combining these experimental results with a mathematical model of the pathway, we further obtained mechanistic insight into potential sources of response variability. Our analysis indicates that in both intracellular calcium and NFκB signaling, response variability is consistent with extrinsic noise (cell-to-cell variability in protein levels), a short-term memory of stimulation, and high Hill coefficient processes. Furthermore, these results support recent works that have emphasized the role of deterministic processes for explaining apparently stochastic cellular response variability and indicate that even weak stimulations likely guide mammalian cells to appropriate fates rather than leaving outcomes to chance. We envision that the rest-period test can be applied to other signaling pathways to extract mechanistic insight.     

A multiscale investigation of repolarization variability and its role in cardiac arrhythmogenesis

Enhanced temporal and spatial variability in cardiac repolarization has been related to increased arrhythmic risk both clinically and experimentally. Causes and modulators of variability in repolarization and their implications in arrhythmogenesis are however not well understood. At the ionic level, the slow component of the delayed rectifier potassium current (I_Ks) is an important determinant of ventricular repolarization. In this study, a combination of experimental and computational multiscale studies is used to investigate the role of intrinsic and extrinsic noise in I_Ks in modulating temporal and spatial variability in ventricular repolarization in human and guinea pig. Results show that under physiological conditions: i), stochastic fluctuations in I_Ks gating properties (i.e., intrinsic noise) cause significant beat-to-beat variability in action potential duration (APD) in isolated cells, whereas cell-to-cell differences in channel numbers (i.e., extrinsic noise) also contribute to cell-to-cell APD differences; ii), in tissue, electrotonic interactions mask the effect of I_Ks noise, resulting in a significant decrease in APD temporal and spatial variability compared to isolated cells. Pathological conditions resulting in gap junctional uncoupling or a decrease in repolarization reserve uncover the manifestation of I_Ks noise at cellular and tissue level, resulting in enhanced ventricular variability and abnormalities in repolarization such as afterdepolarizations and alternans.     

Bcl-2 inhibits apoptosis by increasing the time-to-death and intrinsic cell-to-cell variations in the mitochondrial pathway of cell death

BH3 mimetics have been proposed as new anticancer therapeutics. They target anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 proteins, up-regulation of which has been implicated in the resistance of many cancer cells, particularly leukemia and lymphoma cells, to apoptosis. Using probabilistic computational modeling of the mitochondrial pathway of apoptosis, verified by single-cell experimental observations, we develop a model of Bcl-2 inhibition of apoptosis. Our results clarify how Bcl-2 imparts its anti-apoptotic role by increasing the time-to-death and cell-to-cell variability. We also show that although the commitment to death is highly impacted by differences in protein levels at the time of stimulation, inherent stochastic fluctuations in apoptotic signaling are sufficient to induce cell-to-cell variability and to allow single cells to escape death. This study suggests that intrinsic cell-to-cell stochastic variability in apoptotic signaling is sufficient to cause fractional killing of cancer cells after exposure to BH3 mimetics. This is an unanticipated facet of cancer chemoresistance.     

Persistent cell-autonomous circadian oscillations in fibroblasts revealed by six-week single-cell imaging of PER2::LUC bioluminescence

Biological oscillators naturally exhibit stochastic fluctuations in period and amplitude due to the random nature of molecular reactions. Accurately measuring the precision of noisy oscillators and the heterogeneity in period and strength of rhythmicity across a population of cells requires single-cell recordings of sufficient length to fully represent the variability of oscillations. We found persistent, independent circadian oscillations of clock gene expression in 6-week-long bioluminescence recordings of 80 primary fibroblast cells dissociated from PER2::LUC mice and kept in vitro for 6 months. Due to the stochastic nature of rhythmicity, the proportion of cells appearing rhythmic increases with the length of interval examined, with 100% of cells found to be rhythmic when using 3-week windows. Mean period and amplitude are remarkably stable throughout the 6-week recordings, with precision improving over time. For individual cells, precision of period and amplitude are correlated with cell size and rhythm amplitude, but not with period, and period exhibits much less cycle-to-cycle variability (CV 7.3%) than does amplitude (CV 37%). The time series are long enough to distinguish stochastic fluctuations within each cell from differences among cells, and we conclude that the cells do exhibit significant heterogeneity in period and strength of rhythmicity, which we measure using a novel statistical metric. Furthermore, stochastic modeling suggests that these single-cell clocks operate near a Hopf bifurcation, such that intrinsic noise enhances the oscillations by minimizing period variability and sustaining amplitude.     

Inference for nonlinear epidemiological models using genealogies and time series

Phylodynamics - the field aiming to quantitatively integrate the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving populations like those of RNA viruses - increasingly relies upon coalescent approaches to infer past population dynamics from reconstructed genealogies. As sequence data have become more abundant, these approaches are beginning to be used on populations undergoing rapid and rather complex dynamics. In such cases, the simple demographic models that current phylodynamic methods employ can be limiting. First, these models are not ideal for yielding biological insight into the processes that drive the dynamics of the populations of interest. Second, these models differ in form from mechanistic and often stochastic population dynamic models that are currently widely used when fitting models to time series data. As such, their use does not allow for both genealogical data and time series data to be considered in tandem when conducting inference. Here, we present a flexible statistical framework for phylodynamic inference that goes beyond these current limitations. The framework we present employs a recently developed method known as particle MCMC to fit stochastic, nonlinear mechanistic models for complex population dynamics to gene genealogies and time series data in a Bayesian framework. We demonstrate our approach using a nonlinear Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease and show through simulations that it provides accurate estimates of past disease dynamics and key epidemiological parameters from genealogies with or without accompanying time series data.     

Parameter inference for stochastic biochemical models from perturbation experiments parallelised at the single cell level

Understanding and characterising biochemical processes inside single cells requires experimental platforms that allow one to perturb and observe the dynamics of such processes as well as computational methods to build and parameterise models from the collected data. Recent progress with experimental platforms and optogenetics has made it possible to expose each cell in an experiment to an individualised input and automatically record cellular responses over days with fine time resolution. However, methods to infer parameters of stochastic kinetic models from single-cell longitudinal data have generally been developed under the assumption that experimental data is sparse and that responses of cells to at most a few different input perturbations can be observed. Here, we investigate and compare different approaches for calculating parameter likelihoods of single-cell longitudinal data based on approximations of the chemical master equation (CME) with a particular focus on coupling the linear noise approximation (LNA) or moment closure methods to a Kalman filter. We show that, as long as cells are measured sufficiently frequently, coupling the LNA to a Kalman filter allows one to accurately approximate likelihoods and to infer model parameters from data even in cases where the LNA provides poor approximations of the CME. Furthermore, the computational cost of filtering-based iterative likelihood evaluation scales advantageously in the number of measurement times and different input perturbations and is thus ideally suited for data obtained from modern experimental platforms. To demonstrate the practical usefulness of these results, we perform an experiment in which single cells, equipped with an optogenetic gene expression system, are exposed to various different light-input sequences and measured at several hundred time points and use parameter inference based on iterative likelihood evaluation to parameterise a stochastic model of the system.     

Robustness Analysis of Stochastic Biochemical Systems

We propose a new framework for rigorous robustness analysis of stochastic biochemical systems that is based on probabilistic model checking techniques. We adapt the general definition of robustness introduced by Kitano to the class of stochastic systems modelled as continuous time Markov Chains in order to extensively analyse and compare robustness of biological models with uncertain parameters. The framework utilises novel computational methods that enable to effectively evaluate the robustness of models with respect to quantitative temporal properties and parameters such as reaction rate constants and initial conditions. We have applied the framework to gene regulation as an example of a central biological mechanism where intrinsic and extrinsic stochasticity plays crucial role due to low numbers of DNA and RNA molecules. Using our methods we have obtained a comprehensive and precise analysis of stochastic dynamics under parameter uncertainty. Furthermore, we apply our framework to compare several variants of two-component signalling networks from the perspective of robustness with respect to intrinsic noise caused by low populations of signalling components. We have successfully extended previous studies performed on deterministic models (ODE) and showed that stochasticity may significantly affect obtained predictions. Our case studies demonstrate that the framework can provide deeper insight into the role of key parameters in maintaining the system functionality and thus it significantly contributes to formal methods in computational systems biology.     

A statistical framework for multiparameter analysis at the single-cell level

Phenotypic characterization of individual cells provides crucial insights into intercellular heterogeneity and enables access to information that is unavailable from ensemble averaged, bulk cell analyses. Single-cell studies have attracted significant interest in recent years and spurred the development of a variety of commercially available and research-grade technologies. To quantify cell-to-cell variability of cell populations, we have developed an experimental platform for real-time measurements of oxygen consumption (OC) kinetics at the single-cell level. Unique challenges inherent to these single-cell measurements arise, and no existing data analysis methodology is available to address them. Here we present a data processing and analysis method that addresses challenges encountered with this unique type of data in order to extract biologically relevant information. We applied the method to analyze OC profiles obtained with single cells of two different cell lines derived from metaplastic and dysplastic human Barrett's esophageal epithelium. In terms of method development, three main challenges were considered for this heterogeneous dynamic system: (i) high levels of noise, (ii) the lack of a priori knowledge of single-cell dynamics, and (iii) the role of intercellular variability within and across cell types. Several strategies and solutions to address each of these three challenges are presented. The features such as slopes, intercepts, breakpoint or change-point were extracted for every OC profile and compared across individual cells and cell types. The results demonstrated that the extracted features facilitated exposition of subtle differences between individual cells and their responses to cell-cell interactions. With minor modifications, this method can be used to process and analyze data from other acquisition and experimental modalities at the single-cell level, providing a valuable statistical framework for single-cell analysis.