Agent-based modeling and simulation for the circular economy: Lessons learned and path forward

Circular economy aims at decoupling human activities from resource use and creating wealth. However, many have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in several methodological approaches being developed to answer that question. This article analyzes and discusses the insights gained from applying agent-based modeling and simulation to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability. This article analyzes the benefits and limitations of this technology and discusses future methodology developments within the circular economy context. Moreover, six limits of the circular economy concept are used to interpret insights from the literature: thermodynamic limits, system boundary limits, limits posed by the physical scale of the economy, limits posed by path dependencies and lock-in, limits of governance and management, and limits of social and cultural definitions. Promising research avenues are to use this methodology with machine learning, industrial ecology methods, and detailed geographic information.     

Fuzzy methods for assessing criteria and indicators of sustainable forest management

This paper describes the general concepts, meaning, and definitions of sustainability and proposes the use of soft methodologies, particularly fuzzy set theory, for its assessment. Criteria and indicators (C&I) are described as instruments to assess forest sustainability. Basic elements and concepts of fuzzy sets are described, including membership functions and their interpretations in the context of sustainable forest management. Moreover, fuzzy operators that can combine the operational concepts of sustainability, namely criteria and indicators are described. A simple illustrative example is described to demonstrate the application of these methodologies.     

Elder knowledge and sustainable livelihoods in post-Soviet Russia: finding dialogue across the generations

Russia's indigenous peoples have been struggling with economic, environmental, and socio-cultural dislocation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. In northern rural areas, the end of the Soviet Union most often meant the end of agro-industrial state farm operations that employed and fed surrounding rural populations. Most communities adapted to this loss by reinstating some form of pre-Soviet household-level food production based on hunting, fishing, and/or herding. However, mass media, globalization, and modernity challenge the intergenerational knowledge exchange that grounds subsistence practices. Parts of the circumpolar north have been relatively successful in valuing and integrating elder knowledge within their communities. This has not been the case in Russia. This article presents results of an elder knowledge project in northeast Siberia, Russia that shows how rural communities can both document and use elder knowledge to bolster local definitions of sustainability and, at the same time, initiate new modes of communication between village youth and elders.     

Sustainability in single-species population models

In this paper, we review the concept of sustainability with regard to a single-species, age-structured fish population with density dependence at some stage of its life history. We trace the development of the view of sustainability through four periods.The classical view of sustainability, prevalent in the 1970s and earlier, developed from deterministic production models, in which equilibrium abundance or biomass is derived as a function of fishing mortality. When there is no fishing mortality, the population equilibrates about its carrying capacity. We show that carrying capacity is the result of reproductive and mortality processes and is not a fixed constant unless these processes are constant. There is usually a fishing mortality, F(MSY), which results in MSY, and a higher value, F(ext), for which the population is eventually driven to extinction. For each F between 0 and F(ext), there is a corresponding sustainable population. From this viewpoint, the primary tool for achieving sustainability is the control of fishing mortality.The neoclassical view of sustainability, developed in the 1980s, involved population models with depensation and stochasticity. This view point is in accord with the perception that a population at a low level is susceptible to collapse or to a lack of rebuilding regardless of fishing. Sustainability occurs in a more restricted range from that in the classical view and includes an abundance threshold. A variety of studies has suggested that fishing mortality should not let a population drop below a threshold at 10-20% of carrying capacity.The modern view of sustainability in the 1990s moves further in the direction of precaution. The fishing mortality limit is the former target of F(MSY) (or some proxy), and the target fishing mortality is set lower. This viewpoint further reduces the range of permissible fishing mortalities and resultant desired population sizes. The objective has shifted from optimizing long-term catch to preserving spawning biomass and egg production for the future. The use of discount rates in objective functions involving catch is not a suitable alternative to protecting reproductive value.As we move into the post-modern time period, new definitions of sustainability will attempt to incorporate he economic and social aspects of fisheries and/or ecosystem and habitat requirements. These definitions now involve "warm and fuzzy" notions (healthy ecosystems and fishing communities, the needs of future generations, diverse fish communities) and value judgements of desired outcomes. Additional work is needed to make these definitions operational and to specify quantitative objectives to be achieved. In addition, multiple objectives may be incompatible, so trade-offs in what constitutes sustainability must be made. The advances made under the single-species approach should not be abandoned in the post-modern era, but rather enhanced and combined with new approaches in the multi-species and economic realms.     

基于内容分析法的生态旅游内涵辨析

随着生态旅游的流行与快速发展对生态旅游这个术语的概念也不断的增长扩散.由于缺乏对其内涵的科学认知和梳理,生态旅游概念的应用具有泛化的危险.不断涌现出的大量有关生态旅游的概念给学术研究和旅游管理带来了许多困惑.运用内容分析的方法对中外旅游文献近10～15a内有影响力的40个生态旅游概念进行了分析,提炼出生态旅游概念中最频繁出现的能代表其内涵的6个标准,它们是：以自然为基础、对保护的贡献、当地社区受益、环境教育、道德规范与责任和可持续性.通过对这些标准的识别,结合先前的生态旅游概念,本文对生态旅游的概念在操作层面上进行了重新架构,将生态旅游这一术语定义为：生态旅游是以可持续旅游和伦理道德规范原则为指导,在旅游过程中强调环境教育、影响管理和社区受益,并为其所依赖的环境保护做贡献的负责任的自然之旅.     

Towards a shared understanding of sustainability for neglected tropical disease programs

BackgroundSustainability within neglected tropical disease (NTD) programs is a complex and challenging issue. The need for a shared understanding about what sustainability means for NTD programs is more important than ever as stakeholders are currently realigning for the next decade of NTD programming with the launch of WHO’s new NTD roadmap for 2012–2030. The aim of this paper is to assess different perspectives to generate a working definition of sustainability for NTD programs.Methodology/Principal findingsThis study surveyed affiliates of the NTD NGO Network (NNN) about their definitions of sustainability and then analyzed the data using an inductive and deductive process. The research team drafted a sustainability statement based on the survey findings and then solicited and incorporated feedback on the statement from a diverse group of expert reviewers. The final statement includes a working definition of sustainability for NTD programs that highlights three key essential components to sustainability: domestic commitment, responsive resource mobilization, and accountability.Conclusions/SignificanceThis research resulted in a sustainability statement, based on a survey and extensive consultation with stakeholders, that represents a starting point for shared understanding around the concept of sustainability for NTD programs. Future collaborative work should build off this definition and seek to incorporate indicators for sustainability into programmatic decision-making.     

The tracheid-vessel element transition in angiosperms involves multiple independent features: cladistic consequences

Current definitions of tracheids and vessel elements are overly simple. These definitions are based on light microscope studies and have not incorporated information gained with scanning electron microscopy (SEM) or transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Current definitions are based primarily on angiosperms, especially eudicots, and were devised before many basal angiosperms were carefully studied. When all sources of information are taken into account, one can recognize changes in six characters in the evolution of tracheids into vessel elements in angiosperms (or vice versa) as well as in other groups of vascular plants. There is an appreciable number of taxa in which all criteria for vessel origin are not met, and thus incipient vessels are present. At the very least, vessel presence or absence should not be treated as a single binary character state change in construction of cladistic matrices. Increase in conductive area of an end wall by means of lysis of progressively greater areas of pit membrane and increase in pit area on the end wall (as compared to pit area on equivalent portions of lateral walls) are considered the most important usable criteria for recognizing intermediacy between tracheids and vessel elements. Primitive character states in vessel elements are briefly discussed to differentiate them from changes in character states that can be regarded as intermediate between tracheids and vessel elements.     

On Sustainability, Estuaries, and Ecosystem Restoration: The Art of the Practical

Ecosystem restoration in highly complex, human‐dominated estuaries rests on a strong conceptual foundation of sustainability, ecosystems, and adaptive management of human‐induced environmental impacts. Successful application involves evaluating uncertainty, incorporating place‐based information, and engaging diverse constituencies in the planning process. That means integration of technical knowledge with an understanding of the “cultural milieu” inherent in all estuaries, that is, the intensity of human activity and impacts plus socioeconomic factors relevant to restoration goals. Operational definitions of what constitutes acceptable ecosystem conditions and current baselines are critical yet rest in large measure on cultural values and socioeconomic considerations. Resources for long‐term monitoring and research to assess performance and ecosystem condition are paramount. Unprecedented population growth promises additional stressors on estuarine environments worldwide, making maintenance of present conditions difficult. The art of good, practical ecosystem restoration as a management tool at multiple geographic scales promises to play a crucial role in sustainability goals.     

Control Strategy Scenarios for the Alien Lionfish Pterois volitans in Chinchorro Bank (Mexican Caribbean): Based on Semi-Quantitative Loop Analysis

Ecological and eco-social network models were constructed with different levels of complexity in order to represent and evaluate management strategies for controlling the alien species Pterois volitans in Chinchorro bank (Mexican Caribbean). Levins´s loop analysis was used as a methodological framework for assessing the local stability (considered as a component of sustainability) of the modeled management interventions represented by various scenarios. The results provided by models of different complexity (models 1 through 4) showed that a reduction of coral species cover would drive the system to unstable states. In the absence of the alien lionfish, the simultaneous fishing of large benthic epifaunal species, adult herbivorous fish and adult carnivorous fish could be sustainable only if the coral species present high levels of cover (models 2 and 3). Once the lionfish is added to the simulations (models 4 and 5), the analysis suggests that although the exploitation or removal of lionfish from shallow waters may be locally stable, it remains necessary to implement additional and concurrent human interventions that increase the holistic sustainability of the control strategy. The supplementary interventions would require the implementation of programs for: (1) the restoration of corals for increasing their cover, (2) the exploitation or removal of lionfish from deeper waters (decreasing the chance of source/sink meta-population dynamics) and (3) the implementation of bans and re-stocking programs for carnivorous fishes (such as grouper) that increase the predation and competition pressure on lionfish (i.e. biological control). An effective control management for the alien lionfish at Chinchorro bank should not be optimized for a single action plan: instead, we should investigate the concurrent implementation of multiple strategies.     

Application of traditional ecological knowledge in the management and sustainability of fisheries in East Africa: a long-neglected strategy?

Management and sustainability of fisheries has been guided by theories and models derived from modern ecological science. Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) has been ignored in all spheres of decision-making for management and sustainability of fisheries in East Africa. TEK guided African communities in the way they associated and interacted with the natural environment around them. Spiritual rituals, religious practices, social taboos and sacred animal totems guided the peoples on how and when to utilize the available natural resources. In the advent of modern scientific knowledge, the African traditional knowledge quickly faded away and is generally seen as irrelevant. Today the potential of TEK in the management and sustainability of fisheries in East Africa has not been realized and its status and future is unknown. TEK should be complementary to modern scientific knowledge in the management and sustainability of fisheries. This paper therefore focuses on the potential application of TEK in the management and sustainability of fisheries in East Africa and the issues that impede its application.     

国家公园旅游可持续性管理评估指标体系——以西藏色林错-普若岗日冰川国家公园潜在建设区为例

当前,国内外对于国家公园旅游可持续性的定义及其评估指标尚未形成共识,已有的部分指标存在可操作性较弱、管理成本较高等问题,无法直接应用于中国国家公园旅游可持续性的管理与评估。从三条路径构建国家公园旅游可持续性管理评估指标体系：以实际需求为导向,分析国家公园所在区域对旅游可持续性管理评估指标的需求;以国际共识为导向,检验《全球可持续旅游目的地标准》在国家公园的适用性;以实践为导向,梳理世界主要国家及地区国家公园旅游可持续性的管理重点。以色林错-普若岗日冰川国家公园（简称"色-普国家公园"）潜在建设区为例,建立国家公园旅游可持续性管理评估指标体系。从经济、社会、文化、生态环境等方面明确了色-普国家公园潜在建设区对管理评估指标体系的需求。经过适用性判定,识别在色-普国家公园潜在建设区具有较强适用性的可持续旅游目的地评估指标。通过频次统计,从经济、社会、文化、生态环境、制度建设等方面遴选世界主要国家及地区国家公园旅游可持续性的重点管理指标。所建立的色-普国家公园潜在建设区旅游可持续性管理评估指标体系包括5个一级指标,15个二级指标,36个三级指标。在此基础上,建议逐步建立健全监测与统计体系,为管理评估指标体系的应用提供支撑。     

Discovery of Drug Synergies in Gastric Cancer Cells Predicted by Logical Modeling

Discovery of efficient anti-cancer drug combinations is a major challenge, since experimental testing of all possible combinations is clearly impossible. Recent efforts to computationally predict drug combination responses retain this experimental search space, as model definitions typically rely on extensive drug perturbation data. We developed a dynamical model representing a cell fate decision network in the AGS gastric cancer cell line, relying on background knowledge extracted from literature and databases. We defined a set of logical equations recapitulating AGS data observed in cells in their baseline proliferative state. Using the modeling software GINsim, model reduction and simulation compression techniques were applied to cope with the vast state space of large logical models and enable simulations of pairwise applications of specific signaling inhibitory chemical substances. Our simulations predicted synergistic growth inhibitory action of five combinations from a total of 21 possible pairs. Four of the predicted synergies were confirmed in AGS cell growth real-time assays, including known effects of combined MEK-AKT or MEK-PI3K inhibitions, along with novel synergistic effects of combined TAK1-AKT or TAK1-PI3K inhibitions. Our strategy reduces the dependence on a priori drug perturbation experimentation for well-characterized signaling networks, by demonstrating that a model predictive of combinatorial drug effects can be inferred from background knowledge on unperturbed and proliferating cancer cells. Our modeling approach can thus contribute to preclinical discovery of efficient anticancer drug combinations, and thereby to development of strategies to tailor treatment to individual cancer patients.     

Can Impacts of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies Be Accurately Quantified if Crop Models Are Annually Re-Initialized?

Estimates of climate change impacts on global food production are generally based on statistical or process-based models. Process-based models can provide robust predictions of agricultural yield responses to changing climate and management. However, applications of these models often suffer from bias due to the common practice of re-initializing soil conditions to the same state for each year of the forecast period. If simulations neglect to include year-to-year changes in initial soil conditions and water content related to agronomic management, adaptation and mitigation strategies designed to maintain stable yields under climate change cannot be properly evaluated. We apply a process-based crop system model that avoids re-initialization bias to demonstrate the importance of simulating both year-to-year and cumulative changes in pre-season soil carbon, nutrient, and water availability. Results are contrasted with simulations using annual re-initialization, and differences are striking. We then demonstrate the potential for the most likely adaptation strategy to offset climate change impacts on yields using continuous simulations through the end of the 21^st century. Simulations that annually re-initialize pre-season soil carbon and water contents introduce an inappropriate yield bias that obscures the potential for agricultural management to ameliorate the deleterious effects of rising temperatures and greater rainfall variability.     

British Columbia’s Fish Health Regulatory Framework’s Contribution to Sustainability Goals Related to Salmon Aquaculture

Salmon farming is a significant contribution to the global seafood market to which the goal of sustainability is often applied. Diseases related to farms are perhaps the most contentious issues associated with sustainable salmon farming. We reviewed literature and policies in British Columbia, Canada, as well as interviewed key informants to examine how fish health regulations do or could support sustainability goals. We found four main obstacles to the development and application of a sustainability-based health management system. First, salmon farming faced the same challenges as other industries when trying to establish an operational definition of sustainability that captures all stakeholders’ interests. Second, there was no program responsible for integrating the various regulations, responsible departments, and monitoring efforts to develop a comprehensive view of sustainability. Third, there was inadequate research base and social consensus on the criteria that should be used to track health outcomes for sustainability purposes. Fourth, the regulatory and management paradigm for salmon farming has been focused on diseases and pathogens as opposed to embracing a more inclusive health promotion model that includes biotic, abiotic, and social determinants of health. A transparent and inclusive participatory process that effectively links expert views with community and industry concerns should serve as the foundation for the next generation of health management regulations for salmon farming.     

Back-to-the-future: a fresh policy initiative for fisheries and a restoration ecology for ocean ecosystems

'Back-to-the-future' (BTF) is an integrative approach to a restoration ecology of the oceans that attempts to solve the fisheries crisis. To this end, it harnesses the latest understanding of ecosystem processes developments in whole ecosystem simulation modelling, and insight into the human dimension of fisheries management. BTF includes new methods for describing past ecosystems, designing fisheries that meet criteria for sustainability and responsibility, and evaluating the costs and benefits of fisheries in restored ecosystems. Evaluation of alternative policy choices, involving trade-offs between conservation and economic values, employs a range of economic, social and ecological measures. Automated searches maximize values of objective functions, and the methodology includes analyses of model parameter uncertainty. Participatory workshops attempt to maximize compliance by fostering a sense of ownership among all stakeholders. Some challenges that have still to be met include improving methods for quantitatively describing the past, reducing uncertainty in ecosystem simulation techniques and in making policy choices robust against climate change. Critical issues include whether past ecosystems make viable policy goals, and whether desirable goals may be reached from today's ecosystem. Examples from case studies in British Columbia, Newfoundland and elsewhere are presented.     

可持续景观规划——融合景观可持续性研究与地理设计

人类活动对景观的影响遍及世界各个角落,其广度、强度、频度不断增大。为了改变生态环境在人类社会经济增长压力下的不可持续状态,景观需要科学合理的设计与管理。可持续景观规划是在景观尺度上,在可持续性科学的指导下,平衡生态系统服务的供需关系,将生态、社会、经济活动过程反映到空间优化上,不断提高人类福祉的规划过程。为了能够实践该规划思路,在景观可持续性研究与地理设计融合的概念框架基础上,提出可持续景观规划的八个步骤,在问题诊断与目标设定、多源数据组织与管理、尺度匹配与多尺度分析、景观格局过程分析和可持续性评估、生态系统服务与景观格局关系模拟、情景分析与方案评估、地理设计平台搭建、可视化与人机互动等关键步骤中,融入了强-弱可持续性、多尺度分析、生态系统服务、可持续性指标、大数据应用,以及文化和地方感。研究提出的可持续性景观规划步骤与实现路径体现了多学科交叉、实时评估反馈、信息技术应用、利益相关者参与的特点,可被用于旨在提高人类福祉的多尺度空间优化和可持续景观设计。     

Improved emergy indices for the evaluation of industrial systems incorporating waste management

Emergy analysis is able to account for ecosystems’ contribution to industrial activity. Accordingly, it is an ecologically conscious tool useful for assessing the environmental impact and sustainability of industrial systems. The emergy-based approach requires proper system boundary definitions and uses several standard indices. In this article some perspectives on the deficiencies of three standard emergy indicators - environmental loading ratio (ELR), emergy yield ratio (EYR) and emergy index of sustainability (EIS) - when applied to industrial systems involving waste management are put forward and suggestions for overcoming them given. In addition, in order to account for the impact of waste emissions on the environment, a simple impact amplification factor is proposed for inclusion in the improved emergy indicators. To demonstrate their usefulness and highlight their superiority over standard indices, the improved emergy indicators are used to evaluate the interaction between a commercial polyethylene production process incorporating waste management and its surrounding environment.     

天保工程实施以来东北阔叶红松林的可持续经营

20世纪末以来有两个重要的变化影响着东北温带阔叶红松林资源的可持续性,一是天然林资源保护工程(下称天保工程)的实施,另一个是红松不再作为用材树种被采伐。但森林采伐后的更新造林模式并没有显著改变。以长白山腹地-露水河林业局的阔叶红松林为研究对象,利用森林资源清查(二类)和作业设计调查(三类)资料,评估了这两个重要的变化对当前的森林资源的产生影响。结果表明,天保工程的实施调减了采伐量,间接提高了森林的公顷蓄积量,整体上促进了森林资源的恢复。目前,紫椴,蒙古栎,水曲柳和春榆等占商品材总生产量94.7%(蓄积量)。与此同时,可供采伐的这4个树种年生长量却小于采伐量,而林下补植红松,却忽视阔叶树更新的经营模式势必会逐渐增加红松在阔叶红松林中的比例,使目前商品材资源不足的情况更加恶化。总的来说,天保工程促进了公益林区森林资源的可持续性,但降低了用于木材生产的商品林的面积;红松不采伐增加了红松在商品林中的比例,降低了商品林中用材树种比例和商品材的可持续生产能力,从长期看,必然导致可采伐林木资源的枯竭。据此,建议应根据森林培育的目标,选择合适的森林更新恢复模式。