Forest Health Monitoring and Forest Inventory Analysis Programs Monitor Climate Change Effects in Forest Ecosystems

The Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) and Forest Inventory and Analyses (FIA) programs are integrated biological monitoring systems that use nationally standardized methods to evaluate and report on the health and sustainability of forest ecosystems in the United States. Many of the anticipated changes in forest ecosystems from climate change were also issues addressed in sections of FHM's National Technical Report 1991 to 1998. The integrated FHM and FIA monitoring systems are currently establishing baseline conditions (status and change) in most States for many of the expected effects, and are projected to have full implementation for all States and Territories in 2003. These monitoring systems utilize a broad suite of indicators of key ecosystem components and processes that are responsive to many biotic and abiotic stressors, including those anticipated from climate change. These programs will contribute essential information for many decades for many of the anticipated changes in forest ecosystem from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations, changing climatic scenarios, and extreme weather events that are probable in the next 30 to 100 years.     

A review of methods for analysing spatial and temporal patterns in coastal water quality

Coastal environments contain some of the marine world's most important ecosystems and represent significant resources for human industry and recreation. Water quality in the coastal environment is extremely important for a number of reasons from the protection of marine organisms and the well being of marine ecosystems to the health of people in the region and the safety of industries such as aquaculture. As a result it is essential that environmental health in coastal environments is monitored. Traditional monitoring methods include assessment of biological indices or direct measurements of water quality, which are based on in situ data collection and hence are often spatially or temporally limited. Remote sensing imagery is increasingly used as a rich source of spatial information, providing more detailed coverage then other methods. But the complexity of information in the imagery requires new analysis techniques that allow us to identify the components and possible causes of spatial and temporal variability.This paper presents a review of methods to analyse spatial and temporal variations in remote sensing data of coastal water quality and discusses and compares these methods and the outcomes they achieve. Selected techniques are illustrated by using a sample dataset of MODIS chlorophyll-a imagery. We consider classification methods (cluster analysis, discriminant analysis) that may be used in exploratory, confirmatory and predictive ways, methods that summarize and identify patterns within complex datasets (factor analysis, principal components analysis, self-organizing maps), and techniques that explicitly analyse spatial relationships (the semivariogram and geographically weighted regression). Each technique has a different purpose and addresses different questions. This review identifies how these methods can be utilized to address water quality variability in order to foster a wider application of such techniques for coastal water quality assessment and monitoring.     

Essential ocean variables for global sustained observations of biodiversity and ecosystem changes

Sustained observations of marine biodiversity and ecosystems focused on specific conservation and management problems are needed around the world to effectively mitigate or manage changes resulting from anthropogenic pressures. These observations, while complex and expensive, are required by the international scientific, governance and policy communities to provide baselines against which the effects of human pressures and climate change may be measured and reported, and resources allocated to implement solutions. To identify biological and ecological essential ocean variables (EOVs) for implementation within a global ocean observing system that is relevant for science, informs society, and technologically feasible, we used a driver‐pressure‐state‐impact‐response (DPSIR) model. We (1) examined relevant international agreements to identify societal drivers and pressures on marine resources and ecosystems, (2) evaluated the temporal and spatial scales of variables measured by 100+ observing programs, and (3) analysed the impact and scalability of these variables and how they contribute to address societal and scientific issues. EOVs were related to the status of ecosystem components (phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass and diversity, and abundance and distribution of fish, marine turtles, birds and mammals), and to the extent and health of ecosystems (cover and composition of hard coral, seagrass, mangrove and macroalgal canopy). Benthic invertebrate abundance and distribution and microbe diversity and biomass were identified as emerging EOVs to be developed based on emerging requirements and new technologies. The temporal scale at which any shifts in biological systems will be detected will vary across the EOVs, the properties being monitored and the length of the existing time‐series. Global implementation to deliver useful products will require collaboration of the scientific and policy sectors and a significant commitment to improve human and infrastructure capacity across the globe, including the development of new, more automated observing technologies, and encouraging the application of international standards and best practices.     

What is river health?

1. Traditionally the assessment of river water quality has been based solely on the measurement of physical, chemical and some biological characteristics. While these measurements may be efficient for regulating effluent discharges and protecting humans, they are not very useful for large-scale management of catchments or for assessing whether river ecosystems are being protected. 2. Measurements of aquatic biota, to identify structural or functional integrity of ecosystems, have recently gained acceptance for river assessment. Empirical evidence from studies of river ecosystems under stress suggests that a small group of biological ecosystem-level indicators can assess river condition. However, physical and chemical features of the environment affect these indicators, the structure and function of which may be changed by human activities. 3. The term ‘river health’, applied to the assessment of river condition, is often seen as being analogous with human health, giving many a sense of understanding. Unfortunately, the meaning of ‘river health’ remains obscure. It is not clear what aspects of river health sets of ecosystem-level indicators actually identify, nor how physical, chemical and biological characteristics may be integrated into measures rather than just observations of cause and effect. 4. Increased examination of relationships between environmental variables that affect aquatic biota, such as habitat structure, flow regime, energy sources, water quality and biotic interactions and biological condition, are required in the study of river health.     

Identifying the dominant process (physical versus biological) in pelagic marine ecosystems from field estimates of chlorophyll a and phytoplankton production

A new approach is described to identify the dominant process (physical versus biological) in a pelagic marine ecosystem, from simple biological oceanographic field variables. The approach is based on quantification of the matching (M) between phytoplankton production (P) and losses, from field estimates of chlorophyll a(Chl) and P. Coefficient M is estimated for a wide range of oceanic and coastal environments and of trophic characteristics, using dat from the literature. Results show that M characterizes the dominance of physical versus biological processes in pelagic systems. The coefficient may be especially useful as a means for extracting process information on pelagic marine ecosystems from large data sets of Chl and P, e.g. recorded by moored instruments or provided by satellite images of ocean colour.      

Human activities and climate variability drive fast‐paced change across the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea‐land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.     

Suitable Days for Plant Growth Disappear under Projected Climate Change: Potential Human and Biotic Vulnerability

Ongoing climate change can alter conditions for plant growth, in turn affecting ecological and social systems. While there have been considerable advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change, comprehensive analyses integrating climate, biological, and social sciences are less common. Here we use climate projections under alternative mitigation scenarios to show how changes in environmental variables that limit plant growth could impact ecosystems and people. We show that although the global mean number of days above freezing will increase by up to 7% by 2100 under “business as usual” (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), suitable growing days will actually decrease globally by up to 11% when other climatic variables that limit plant growth are considered (i.e., temperature, water availability, and solar radiation). Areas in Russia, China, and Canada are projected to gain suitable plant growing days, but the rest of the world will experience losses. Notably, tropical areas could lose up to 200 suitable plant growing days per year. These changes will impact most of the world’s terrestrial ecosystems, potentially triggering climate feedbacks. Human populations will also be affected, with up to ~2,100 million of the poorest people in the world (~30% of the world’s population) highly vulnerable to changes in the supply of plant-related goods and services. These impacts will be spatially variable, indicating regions where adaptations will be necessary. Changes in suitable plant growing days are projected to be less severe under strong and moderate mitigation scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5), underscoring the importance of reducing emissions to avoid such disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and people.     

Developing a forest biodiversity monitoring approach for New Zealand

There is a lack of comprehensive and consistent information to inform policy makers about the status of New Zealand’s forest biodiversity. Three reasons for collecting such information are: assessing the effectiveness of management, reporting on the status of biodiversity under national and international requirements, and improving our knowledge of ecosystem dynamics for designing effective management systems. The challenge is to design monitoring systems that address these multiple needs simultaneously, and at a range of spatial and temporal scales. This article first considers principles for designing enduring monitoring systems based on past experiences, assessing how effectively these principles were implemented in designing New Zealand’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS), and finally, suggesting future directions for forest biodiversity monitoring in New Zealand. At a national scale we support an unbiased, systematic sample of forests as implemented in several countries (e.g. Austria and the U.S.A.). We consider it best practice to monitor shifts in the fundamental compositional, structural and functional characteristics of ecosystems and use these to derive indicators. We suggest forest biodiversity indicators should include forest area and spatial arrangement, tree mortality and recruitment, exotic weeds, introduced herbivore impacts, and woody debris. Principles discussed in this paper are relevant to biodiversity monitoring in a wider range of ecosystems than forests. Without spatially extensive, robustly designed, biodiversity monitoring systems, New Zealand will remain in a relatively weak position nationally, and internationally, to report on the effectiveness of biodiversity conservation.     

Large expansion of oil industry in the Ecuadorian Amazon: biodiversity vulnerability and conservation alternatives

Ecuador will experience a significant expansion of the oil industry in its Amazonian region, one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. In view of the changes that are about to come, we explore the conflicts between oil extraction interests and biodiversity protection and apply systematic conservation planning to identify priority areas that should be protected in different oil exploitation scenarios. First, we quantified the current extent of oil blocks and protected zones and their overlap with two biodiversity indicators: 25 ecosystems and 745 species (whose distributions were estimated via species distribution models). With the new scheme of oil exploitation, oil blocks cover 68% (68,196 km²) of the Ecuadorian Amazon; half of it occupied by new blocks open for bids in the southern Amazon. This region is especially vulnerable to biodiversity losses, because peaks of species diversity, 19 ecosystems, and a third of its protected zones coincide spatially with oil blocks. Under these circumstances, we used Marxan software to identify priority areas for conservation outside oil blocks, but their coverage was insufficient to completely represent biodiversity. Instead, priority areas that include southern oil blocks provide a higher representation of biodiversity indicators. Therefore, preserving the southern Amazon becomes essential to improve the protection of Amazonian biodiversity in Ecuador, and avoiding oil exploitation in these areas (33% of the extent of southern oil blocks) should be considered a conservation alternative. Also, it is highly recommended to improve current oil exploitation technology to reduce environmental impacts in the region, especially within five oil blocks that we identified as most valuable for the conservation of biodiversity. The application of these and other recommendations depends heavily on the Ecuadorian government, which needs to find a better balance between the use of the Amazon resources and biodiversity conservation.     

Issues in using landscape indicators to assess land changes

Landscape indicators, when combined with information about environmental conditions (such as habitat potential, biodiversity, carbon and nutrient cycling, and erosion) and socioeconomic forces, can provide insights about changing ecosystem services. They also provide information about opportunities for improving natural resources management. Landscape indicators rely on data regarding land cover, land management and land functionality. Challenges in using landscape indicators to assess change and effects include (1) measures of land management and attributes that are reliable, robust and consistent for all areas on the Earth do not exist, and thus land cover is more frequently utilized; (2) multiple types of land cover and management are often found within a single landscape and are constantly changing, which complicates measurement and interpretation; and (3) while causal analysis is essential for understanding and interpreting changes in indicator values, the interactions among multiple causes and effects over time make accurate attribution among many drivers of change particularly difficult. Because of the complexity, sheer number of variables, and limitations of empirical data on land changes, models are often used to illustrate and estimate values for landscape indicators, and those models have several problems. Recommendations to improve our ability to assess the effects of changes in land management include refinement of questions to be more consistent with available information and the development of data sets based on systematic measurement over time of spatially explicit land qualities such as carbon and nutrient stocks, water and soil quality, net primary productivity, habitat and biodiversity. Well-defined and consistent land-classification systems that are capable of tracking changes in these and other qualities that matter to society need to be developed and deployed. Because landscapes are so dynamic, it is crucial to develop ways for the scientific community to work together to collect data and develop tools that will enable better analysis of causes and effects and to develop robust management recommendations that will increases land's capacity to meet societal needs in a changing world.     

Impact of periodic nutrient input rate on trophic chain properties

Marine ecosystems are characterized by a strong influence of hydrodynamics on biological processes. The associated models involve the coupling of physical to biological models and therefore require a large number of state variables. The consequent high complexity limits our capacity to perform a complete and detailed study and even prevents any complete mathematical study of these models. It is also difficult to disentangle among all the processes involved, which ones actually drive the system at any moment. Hydrodynamics, among other consequences, affect the way under which the nutrients are supplied to marine ecosystems. The variability of nutrient input rate in marine systems generally results from runs-off in coastal systems and from physical processes (wind forcing and hydrodynamics) in open ocean. This paper is devoted to the study of the effects of the nutrient input rate variability on the dynamics and the functioning of trophic chains. In this context, we aim to provide an understandable study, based on simplified system models. We consider a periodic nutrient input rate and analyze how this variability modifies some system properties: its dynamics, its functioning and its structure. The dynamics is obtained by numerical simulations and when possible, enlighten by already published mathematical results. The functioning is measured by the time averaged state variables during the simulation period, and their variability. The structure concerns the number of surviving populations, a proxy of specific biodiversity. We show how these properties can be affected and provide some conditions under which the modifications can occur. We also highlight that, even if the physical process is the main driving force in the global dynamics, the choice of the biological model is important to understand the biological response of the system to physical forcing.     

Synergistic Effects of Climate and Fishing in a Marine Ecosystem

Current climate change and overfishing are affecting the productivity and structure of marine ecosystems. This situation is unprecedented for the marine biosphere and it is essential to understand the mechanisms and pathways by which ecosystems respond. We report that climate change and overfishing are likely to be responsible for a rapid restructuring of a highly productive marine ecosystem with effects throughout the pelagos and the benthos. In the mid-1980s, climate change, consequent modifications in the North Sea plankton, and fishing, all reduced North Sea cod recruitment. In this region, production of many benthic species respond positively and immediately to temperature. Analysis of a long-term, spatially extensive biological (plankton and cod) and physical (sea surface temperature) dataset suggests that synchronous changes in cod numbers and sea temperature have established an extensive trophic cascade favoring lower trophic level groups over economic fisheries. A proliferation of jellyfish that we detect may signal the climax of these changes. This modified North Sea ecology may provide a clear indication of the synergistic consequences of coincident climate change and overfishing. The extent of the ecosystem restructuring that has occurred in the North Sea suggests we are unlikely to reverse current climate and human-induced effects through ecosystem resource management in the short term. Rather, we should understand and adapt to new ecological regimes. This implies that fisheries management policies will have to be fully integrated with the ecological consequences of climate change to prevent a similar collapse in an exploited marine ecosystem elsewhere. Author Contributions  RRK conceived the project and GB analysed the data. RRK, GB and JAL co-wrote the paper.     

Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities

Community‐level climate change indicators have been proposed to appraise the impact of global warming on community composition. However, non‐climate factors may also critically influence species distribution and biological community assembly. The aim of this paper was to study how fire–vegetation dynamics can modify our ability to predict the impact of climate change on bird communities, as described through a widely‐used climate change indicator: the community thermal index (CTI). Potential changes in bird species assemblage were predicted using the spatially‐explicit species assemblage modelling framework – SESAM – that applies successive filters to constrained predictions of richness and composition obtained by stacking species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire–vegetation dynamics. We forecasted future values of CTI between current conditions and 2050, across a wide range of fire–vegetation and climate change scenarios. Fire–vegetation dynamics were simulated for Catalonia (Mediterranean basin) using a process‐based model that reproduces the spatial interaction between wildfire, vegetation dynamics and wildfire management under two IPCC climate scenarios. Net increases in CTI caused by the concomitant impact of climate warming and an increasingly severe wildfire regime were predicted. However, the overall increase in the CTI could be partially counterbalanced by forest expansion via land abandonment and efficient wildfire suppression policies. CTI is thus strongly dependent on complex interactions between climate change and fire–vegetation dynamics. The potential impacts on bird communities may be underestimated if an overestimation of richness is predicted but not constrained. Our findings highlight the need to explicitly incorporate these interactions when using indicators to interpret and forecast climate change impact in dynamic ecosystems. In fire‐prone systems, wildfire management and land‐use policies can potentially offset or heighten the effects of climate change on biological communities, offering an opportunity to address the impact of global climate change proactively.     

Assessment of Multiple Marine Ecological Disturbances: Applying the North American Prototype to the Baltic Sea Ecosystem

Multiple marine ecological disturbances are ecosystem health indicators. An approach is described for systematically reconstructing spatial and temporal marine disturbance regimes related to human morbidity, wildlife mortality, disease events and harmful algal blooms. The approach is based upon recovery of meta-data from a survey of published literature and consolidation of geographic information layers from pre-existing sources. The examples provided are from the HEED (Health Ecological and Economic Dimensions) project conducted in the Northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Eight general disturbance indicator categories from HEED are suggested for assessing the health of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. These disturbance indicators represent 147 distinct impact types that may be used to examine relationships among impact causes, effects and costs from disturbances observed for near coastal and open waters. The HEED prototype is compatible with the objectives of the health module of the Baltic Sea's Large Marine Ecosystem initiative and consistent with implementation of the Baltic Sea Agenda 21 program. The general disturbance research methodology may be applied to the Baltic Sea or any other multijurisdiction marine region and these methods are not restricted to marine systems     

Adaptation strategies to climate change in marine systems

The world's oceans are highly impacted by climate change and other human pressures, with significant implications for marine ecosystems and the livelihoods that they support. Adaptation for both natural and human systems is increasingly important as a coping strategy due to the rate and scale of ongoing and potential future change. Here, we conduct a review of literature concerning specific case studies of adaptation in marine systems, and discuss associated characteristics and influencing factors, including drivers, strategy, timeline, costs, and limitations. We found ample evidence in the literature that shows that marine species are adapting to climate change through shifting distributions and timing of biological events, while evidence for adaptation through evolutionary processes is limited. For human systems, existing studies focus on frameworks and principles of adaptation planning, but examples of implemented adaptation actions and evaluation of outcomes are scarce. These findings highlight potentially useful strategies given specific social–ecological contexts, as well as key barriers and specific information gaps requiring further research and actions.     

Crowdsourcing indicators for cultural ecosystem services: A geographically weighted approach for mountain landscapes

Integrating cultural dimensions into the ecosystem service framework is essential for appraising non-material benefits stemming from different human–environment interactions. This study investigates how the actual provision of cultural services is distributed across the landscape according to spatially varying relationships. The final aim was to analyse how landscape settings are associated to people's preferences and perceptions related to cultural ecosystem services in mountain landscapes. We demonstrated a spatially explicit method based on geo-tagged images from popular social media to assess revealed preferences. A spatially weighted regression showed that specific variables correspond to prominent drivers of cultural ecosystem services at the local scale. The results of this explanatory approach can be used to integrate the cultural service dimension into land planning by taking into account specific benefiting areas and by setting priorities on the ecosystems and landscape characteristics which affect the service supply. We finally concluded that the use of crowdsourced data allows identifying spatial patterns of cultural ecosystem service preferences and their association with landscape settings.     

IMOS National Reference Stations: A Continental-Wide Physical,Chemical and Biological Coastal Observing System

Sustained observations allow for the tracking of change in oceanography and ecosystems, however, these are rare, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere. To address this in part, the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) implemented a network of nine National Reference Stations (NRS). The network builds on one long-term location, where monthly water sampling has been sustained since the 1940s and two others that commenced in the 1950s. In-situ continuously moored sensors and an enhanced monthly water sampling regime now collect more than 50 data streams. Building on sampling for temperature, salinity and nutrients, the network now observes dissolved oxygen, carbon, turbidity, currents, chlorophyll a and both phytoplankton and zooplankton. Additional parameters for studies of ocean acidification and bio-optics are collected at a sub-set of sites and all data is made freely and publically available. Our preliminary results demonstrate increased utility to observe extreme events, such as marine heat waves and coastal flooding; rare events, such as plankton blooms; and have, for the first time, allowed for consistent continental scale sampling and analysis of coastal zooplankton and phytoplankton communities. Independent water sampling allows for cross validation of the deployed sensors for quality control of data that now continuously tracks daily, seasonal and annual variation. The NRS will provide multi-decadal time series, against which more spatially replicated short-term studies can be referenced, models and remote sensing products validated, and improvements made to our understanding of how large-scale, long-term change and variability in the global ocean are affecting Australia''s coastal seas and ecosystems. The NRS network provides an example of how a continental scaled observing systems can be developed to collect observations that integrate across physics, chemistry and biology.     

Subtle population structure and male-biased dispersal in two <Emphasis Type="Italic">Copadichromis</Emphasis> species (Teleostei,Cichlidae) from Lake Malawi,East Africa

Marine protected areas are generally designed and managed on the basis of the presence and extent of specific habitat types or the habitats of important species. However, it has become clear that in addition to including these ‘structural’ elements of marine systems, management strategies should incorporate a consideration of the functional aspects of the ecosystems. Biological traits analysis (BTA) has been successfully used to describe ecological functioning in marine benthic systems. BTA uses a number of biological characteristics expressed by the taxa present as indicators of key ecosystem functions. Two expert workshops were used to examine the potential for the application of BTA in the designation and management of MPAs. They concluded that BTA represented the best tool currently available for quantifying ecological functioning and agreed on 10-key ecological functions delivered by marine benthic communities. Twenty-four biological traits were also identified by the workshops as indices of these ten functions. In order to demonstrate the practical utility of the approach, BTA using these traits, was applied to a dataset covering benthos from within and around the proposed Eddystone Special Area of Conservation (SW England). The case study demonstrated that with the type of data normally available from conservation assessment type surveys, and a knowledge of the relevant biological traits, it is possible to use a consideration of ecological functioning to set boundaries for the MPA and to inform the site management objectives. The use of structure and function information to inform the designation process and subsequent management of marine protected areas is discussed. Guest editors: J. Davenport, G. Burnell, T. Cross, M. Emmerson, R. McAllen, R. Ramsay & E. Rogan Challenges to Marine Ecosystems