Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake

Expanding high‐elevation and high‐latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south‐central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land‐use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow‐covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high‐latitude and high‐elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts.     

Can we produce carbon and climate neutral forest bioenergy?

Harvesting branches, stumps and unmercantable tops, in addition to stem wood, decreases the carbon input to the soil and consequently reduces the forest carbon stock. We examine the changes in the forest carbon cycle that would compensate for this carbon loss over a rotation period and lead to carbon neutral forest residue bioenergy systems. In addition, we analyse the potential climate impact of these carbon neutral systems. In a boreal forest, the carbon loss was compensated for with a 10% increase in tree growth or a postponing of final felling for 20 years from 90 to 110 years in one forest rotation period. However, these changes in carbon sequestration did not prevent soil carbon loss. To recover soil carbon stock, a 38% increase in tree growth or a 21% decrease in the decomposition rate of the remaining organic matter was needed. All the forest residue bioenergy scenarios studied had a warming impact on climate for at least 62 years. Nevertheless, the increases in the carbon sequestration from forest growth or reduction in the decomposition rate of the remaining organic matter resulted in a 50% smaller warming impact of forest bioenergy use or even a cooling climate impact in the long term. The study shows that carbon neutral forest residue bioenergy systems have warming climate impacts. Minimization of the forest carbon loss improves the climate impact of forest bioenergy.     

Thermal acclimation of leaf respiration of tropical trees and lianas: response to experimental canopy warming,and consequences for tropical forest carbon balance

Climate warming is expected to increase respiration rates of tropical forest trees and lianas, which may negatively affect the carbon balance of tropical forests. Thermal acclimation could mitigate the expected respiration increase, but the thermal acclimation potential of tropical forests remains largely unknown. In a tropical forest in Panama, we experimentally increased nighttime temperatures of upper canopy leaves of three tree and two liana species by on average 3  ° C for 1 week, and quantified temperature responses of leaf dark respiration. Respiration at 25  ° C (R₂₅) decreased with increasing leaf temperature, but acclimation did not result in perfect homeostasis of respiration across temperatures. In contrast, Q₁₀ of treatment and control leaves exhibited similarly high values (range 2.5–3.0) without evidence of acclimation. The decrease in R₂₅ was not caused by respiratory substrate depletion, as warming did not reduce leaf carbohydrate concentration. To evaluate the wider implications of our experimental results, we simulated the carbon cycle of tropical latitudes (24 ° S–24 ° N) from 2000 to 2100 using a dynamic global vegetation model (LM3VN) modified to account for acclimation. Acclimation reduced the degree to which respiration increases with climate warming in the model relative to a no‐acclimation scenario, leading to 21% greater increase in net primary productivity and 18% greater increase in biomass carbon storage over the 21st century. We conclude that leaf respiration of tropical forest plants can acclimate to nighttime warming, thereby reducing the magnitude of the positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle.     

Microbial responses to warming enhance soil carbon loss following translocation across a tropical forest elevation gradient

Tropical soils contain huge carbon stocks, which climate warming is projected to reduce by stimulating organic matter decomposition, creating a positive feedback that will promote further warming. Models predict that the loss of carbon from warming soils will be mediated by microbial physiology, but no empirical data are available on the response of soil carbon and microbial physiology to warming in tropical forests, which dominate the terrestrial carbon cycle. Here we show that warming caused a considerable loss of soil carbon that was enhanced by associated changes in microbial physiology. By translocating soils across a 3000 m elevation gradient in tropical forest, equivalent to a temperature change of ± 15 °C, we found that soil carbon declined over 5 years by 4% in response to each 1 °C increase in temperature. The total loss of carbon was related to its original quantity and lability, and was enhanced by changes in microbial physiology including increased microbial carbon‐use‐efficiency, shifts in community composition towards microbial taxa associated with warmer temperatures, and increased activity of hydrolytic enzymes. These findings suggest that microbial feedbacks will cause considerable loss of carbon from tropical forest soils in response to predicted climatic warming this century.     

全球气候变暖对凋落物分解的影响

凋落物分解作为生态系统核心过程,参与生态系统碳的周转与循环,影响生态系统碳的收支平衡,调控生态系统对全球气候变暖的反馈结果。全球气候变暖通过环境因素、凋落物数量和质量以及分解者3个方面,直接或间接地作用于凋落物分解过程,并进一步影响土壤养分周转和碳库动态。气候变暖可通过升高温度和改变实际蒸散量等环境因素直接作用于凋落物分解。气候变暖可引起植物物种短期内碳、氮和木质素等化学性质的改变以及群落中物种组成的长期变化从而改变凋落物质量。在凋落物分解过程中,土壤分解者亚系统作为主要生命组分(土壤动物和微生物)彼此相互作用、相互协调共同参与调节凋落物的分解过程。凋落物分解可以通过改变土壤微生物量、微生物活动和群落结构来加快微生物养分的固定或矿化,以形成新的养分利用模式来改变土壤有机质从而对气候变化做出响应。未来凋落物分解的研究方向应基于大尺度跨区域分解实验和长期实验,关注多个因子交互影响下,分解过程中碳、氮养分释放、地上/地下凋落物分解生物学过程与联系、分解者亚系统营养级联效应等方面。     

Impacts of human alteration of the nitrogen cycle in the US on radiative forcing

Nitrogen cycling processes affect radiative forcing directly through emissions of nitrous oxide (N₂O) and indirectly because emissions of nitrogen oxide $(\hbox{NO}_{x})$ and ammonia (NH₃) affect atmospheric concentrations of methane (CH₄), carbon dioxide (CO₂), water vapor (H₂O), ozone (O₃) and aerosols. The emissions of N₂O are mostly from agriculture and they contribute to warming on both short and long time scales. The effects of $\hbox{NO}_{{x}}$ and NH₃ on CH₄, O₃, and aerosols are complex, and quantification of these effects is difficult. However, the net result on time scales of decades is likely one of cooling, which becomes less significant on longer time scales. Deposition of N onto ecosystems also affects sources and sinks of N₂O, CH₄, and CO₂, but the dominant effect is changes in carbon (C) stocks. Primary productivity in most temperate ecosystems is limited by N, so inputs from atmospheric deposition tend to stimulate plant growth and plant litter production, leading in some cases to significant C sequestration in biomass and soils. The literature reviewed here indicates a range of estimates spanning 20–70 kg C sequestered per kg N deposited in forests, which are the dominant C sinks. Most of the sequestration occurs in aboveground forest biomass, with less consistency and lower rates reported for C sequestration in soils. The permanency of the forest biomass sink is uncertain, but data for the fate of forest products in the US indicate that only a small fraction of enhanced forest biomass C is sequestered in long-term harvest products or in unmanaged forests. The net effect of all of these N cycle processes on radiative forcing in the US is probably a modest cooling effect for a 20-year time frame, although the uncertainty of this estimate includes zero net effect, and a modest warming for a 100-year time frame. We know that N-cycling processes are important and that biotic feedbacks to climate change are unlikely to be properly modeled or assessed without including C–N interactions. However, due to the complexity of biological processes involving C–N–climate interactions, biogeochemical models are still poorly constrained with respect to ecosystem responses to impacts of N deposition and climate change. Only recently have N-cycling processes been incorporated into Earth system models for C–N interactions. The robustness of these models remains to be demonstrated. Much work remains for improving their representation in models used to simulate climate forcing scenarios.     

造林再造林、森林采伐、气候变化、CO2浓度升高、火灾和虫害对森林固碳能力的影响

森林生态系统具有吸收大气CO_2、缓解气候变化的作用。造林再造林作为京都议定书认可的大气CO_2减排途径,是提高森林固碳能力的低成本、有效策略。森林生态系统固碳能力还受森林采伐、气候变化、大气CO_2浓度升高、火灾以及虫害等自然因素和人为因素的强烈影响。综述了全球和区域造林再造林的固碳能力,以及目前较受重视的一些因素(森林采伐、气候变化、大气CO_2浓度升高、火灾以及虫害)对森林生态系统固碳能力的影响。结果表明,全球造林再造林固碳能力为148—2400TgC/a;采伐造成的全球森林碳损失最大为900 TgC/a,其次是火灾为300 TgC/a,虫害造成森林碳释放最小在2—107 TgC/a之间。建议在今后的研究中,应关注固碳措施和多种环境因素对森林生态系统固碳能力,尤其是对森林土壤固碳能力的影响,严格控制森林采伐和火灾发生,以及减少或避免造林再造林活动引起的碳泄漏。     

Modelling the role of urban forest in the regulation of carbon balance in an industrial area of India

The increase in greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere contributes to climate change. People and policy makers are becoming more interested in the role of urban trees in regulating the global carbon cycle. Carbon dioxide emissions from anthropogenic sources are mainly caused by the burning of fossil fuels, which are major contributors to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Therefore, a better understanding of the carbon sequestration process by urban forests and its exchange between air and soil is the first step to offsetting the impacts of climate change in urban areas.Here, a dynamic model was constructed including the carbon stock of forest, litter carbon and soil organic carbon pool. The study emphasized the relationship between the three carbon pools. The monthly dynamics of the pools were studied. A sensitivity analysis was performed followed by calibration and validation. The results showed that the mean growth rate of forest biomass was the most sensitive factor, followed by the decomposition rate and the uptake rate of organic carbon by detritivores.If the biomass of the existing forest is maintained sustainably, more carbon dioxide could be sequestered. In addition, the model showed that afforestation in the Asansol-Durgapur Planning Area would increase the carbon stocks of the forest and to some extent offset the problem of carbon dioxide release from the nearby coal mines and other factories. In the near future, the model will benefit forest managers in carrying out urban management in the Earth's tropical belt.     

Carbon dynamics in the future forest: the importance of long‐term successional legacy and climate–fire interactions

Understanding how climate change may influence forest carbon (C) budgets requires knowledge of forest growth relationships with regional climate, long‐term forest succession, and past and future disturbances, such as wildfires and timber harvesting events. We used a landscape‐scale model of forest succession, wildfire, and C dynamics (LANDIS‐II) to evaluate the effects of a changing climate (A2 and B1 IPCC emissions; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory General Circulation Models) on total forest C, tree species composition, and wildfire dynamics in the Lake Tahoe Basin, California, and Nevada. The independent effects of temperature and precipitation were assessed within and among climate models. Results highlight the importance of modeling forest succession and stand development processes at the landscape scale for understanding the C cycle. Due primarily to landscape legacy effects of historic logging of the Comstock Era in the late 1880s, C sequestration may continue throughout the current century, and the forest will remain a C sink (Net Ecosystem Carbon Balance > 0), regardless of climate regime. Climate change caused increases in temperatures limited simulated C sequestration potential because of augmented fire activity and reduced establishment ability of subalpine and upper montane trees. Higher temperatures influenced forest response more than reduced precipitation. As the forest reached its potential steady state, the forest could become C neutral or a C source, and climate change could accelerate this transition. The future of forest ecosystem C cycling in many forested systems worldwide may depend more on major disturbances and landscape legacies related to land use than on projected climate change alone.     

安徽池州森林植被碳贮量调查及分析

气候变暖及应对是国际社会关注的焦点,也是当前学术界的研究热点,森林植被碳汇定量化评估是气候变化应对研究的重要方面。安徽池州是国家首个生态经济示范区,也是＂生态安徽＂建设试点市。利用2009年森林清查资料,采用调查研究、模型研究和文献研究等手段,基于不同林分生物量与蓄积量回归方程、全干生物量的计算方法,揭示了池州森林植被碳贮量。结果表明：池州总生物量为3.5988790×107t,总全干生物量为3.5131031×107t,总碳贮量为1.71613×107t,碳密度为34.70t.hm-2。该文有助于加深政府部门及公众对池州森林植被巨大碳汇生态服务功能的认识,为制定生态立市发展战略提供理论依据,从而增强人们保护池州森林植被的积极性与主动性。     

Quantifying carbon storage and sequestration by native and non-native forests under contrasting climate types

Non-native trees may have significant impacts on the carbon sink capacity of forested lands. However, large-scale patterns of the relative capacity of native and non-native forests to uptake and store carbon remain poorly described in the literature, and this information is urgently needed to support management decisions. In this study, we analyzed 17,065 plots from the Spanish Forest Inventory (covering c. 30 years) to quantify carbon storage and sequestration of natural forests and plantations of native and non-native trees under contrasting climate types, while controlling for the effects of environmental factors (forest structure, climate, soil, topography, and management). We found that forest origin (non-native vs. native) highly influenced carbon storage and sequestration, but such effect was dependent on climate. Carbon storage was greater in non-native than in native forests in both wet and dry climates. Non-native forests also had greater carbon sequestration than native ones in the wet climate, due to higher carbon gains by tree growth. However, in the dry climate, native forests had greater carbon gains by tree ingrowth and lower carbon loss by tree mortality than non-native ones. Furthermore, forest type (classified by the dominant species) and natural forests versus tree plantations were important determinants of carbon storage and sequestration. Native and non-native Pinus spp. forests had low carbon storage, whereas non-native Eucalyptus spp. forests and native Quercus spp., Fagus sylvatica, and Eurosiberian mixed forests (especially not planted ones) had high carbon storage. Carbon sequestration was greatest in Eucalyptus globulus, Quercus ilex, and Pinus pinaster forests. Overall, our findings suggest that the relative capacity of native and non-native forests to uptake and store carbon depends on climate, and that the superiority of non-native forests over native ones in terms of carbon sequestration declines as the abiotic filters become stronger (i.e., lower water availability and higher climate seasonality).     

Sensitivity of Global and Regional Terrestrial Carbon Storage to the Direct CO2 Effect and Climate Change Based on the CMIP5 Model Intercomparison

Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO₂ concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics.     

Recent climate changes interact with stand structure and management to determine changes in tree carbon stocks in Spanish forests

Most temperate forests are accumulating carbon (C) and may continue to do so in the near future. However, the situation may be different in water‐limited ecosystems, where the potentially positive effects of C and N fertilization and rising temperatures interact with water availability. In this study, we use the extensive network of plots of two consecutive Spanish national forest inventories to identify the factors that determine the spatial variation of the C stock change, growth, and mortality rate of forests in Peninsular Spain (below‐ and aboveground). We fitted general linear models to assess the response of C stock change and its components to the spatial variability of climate (in terms of water availability), forest structure (tree density and C stock), previous forest management, and the recent warming trend. Our results show that undisturbed forests in Peninsular Spain are accumulating C at a rate of ~1.4 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1, and that forest structural variables are the main determinants of forest growth and C stock change. Water availability was positively related to growth and C accumulation. On the other hand, recent warming has reduced growth rate and C accumulation, especially in wet areas. Spatial variation in mortality (in terms of C loss) was mostly driven by differences in growth rate across plots, and was consistent with ‘natural’, self‐thinning dynamics related to the recent abandonment of forest management over large areas of Spain, with the consequent increase in tree density and competition. Interestingly, the negative effect of warming on forest C accumulation disappears if only managed stands are considered, emphasizing the potential of forest management to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, the effect of forest management was weak and, in some cases, not significant, implying the need of further research on its impact.     

Determinants of soil organic carbon sequestration and its contribution to ecosystem carbon sinks of planted forests

The area of forest established through afforestation/reforestation has been increasing on a global scale, which is particularly important as these planted forests attenuate climate change by sequestering carbon. However, the determinants of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and their contribution to the ecosystem carbon sink of planted forests remain uncertain. By using globally distributed data extracted from 154 peer‐reviewed publications and a total of 355 sampling points, we investigated above‐ground biomass carbon (ABC) sequestration and SOC sequestration across three different climatic zones (tropical, warm temperate, and cold temperate) through correlation analysis, regression models, and structural equation modeling (SEM). We found that the proportion of SOC sequestration in the ecosystem C sequestration averaged 14.1% globally, being the highest (27.0%) in the warm temperate and the lowest (10.7%) in the tropical climatic zones. The proportion was mainly affected by latitude. The sink rate of ABC (R_ABC) in tropical climates (2.48 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1) and the sink rate of SOC (R_SOC) in warm temperate climates (0.96 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1) were higher than other climatic zones. The main determinants of R_SOC were the number of frost‐free days, latitude, mean annual precipitation (MAP), and SOC density (SOCD) at the initial observation; however, these variables depended on the climatic zone. According to the SEM, frost‐free period, mean annual temperature (MAT) and MAP are the dominant driving factors affecting R_SOC in Chinese plantations. MAT has a positive effect on R_SOC, and global warming may increase R_SOC of temperate plantations in China. Our findings highlight the determinants of SOC sequestration and quantitatively reveal the substantial global contribution of SOC sequestration to ecosystem carbon sink provided by planted forests. Our results help managers identify and control key factors to increase carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems.     

Carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation using macroalgae: a state of knowledge review

The conservation, restoration, and improved management of terrestrial forests significantly contributes to mitigate climate change and its impacts, as well as providing numerous co-benefits. The pressing need to reduce emissions and increase carbon removal from the atmosphere is now also leading to the development of natural climate solutions in the ocean. Interest in the carbon sequestration potential of underwater macroalgal forests is growing rapidly among policy, conservation, and corporate sectors. Yet, our understanding of whether carbon sequestration from macroalgal forests can lead to tangible climate change mitigation remains severely limited, hampering their inclusion in international policy or carbon finance frameworks. Here, we examine the results of over 180 publications to synthesise evidence regarding macroalgal forest carbon sequestration potential. We show that research efforts on macroalgae carbon sequestration are heavily skewed towards particulate organic carbon (POC) pathways (77% of data publications), and that carbon fixation is the most studied flux (55%). Fluxes leading directly to carbon sequestration (e.g. carbon export or burial in marine sediments) remain poorly resolved, likely hindering regional or country-level assessments of carbon sequestration potential, which are only available from 17 of the 150 countries where macroalgal forests occur. To solve this issue, we present a framework to categorize coastlines according to their carbon sequestration potential. Finally, we review the multiple avenues through which this sequestration can translate into climate change mitigation capacity, which largely depends on whether management interventions can increase carbon removal above a natural baseline or avoid further carbon emissions. We find that conservation, restoration and afforestation interventions on macroalgal forests can potentially lead to carbon removal in the order of 10's of Tg C globally. Although this is lower than current estimates of natural sequestration value of all macroalgal habitats (61–268 Tg C year⁻¹), it suggests that macroalgal forests could add to the total mitigation potential of coastal blue carbon ecosystems, and offer valuable mitigation opportunities in polar and temperate areas where blue carbon mitigation is currently low. Operationalizing that potential will necessitate the development of models that reliably estimate the proportion of production sequestered, improvements in macroalgae carbon fingerprinting techniques, and a rethinking of carbon accounting methodologies. The ocean provides major opportunities to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and the largest coastal vegetated habitat on Earth should not be ignored simply because it does not fit into existing frameworks.     

Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here, we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species‐specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured interannual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including aboveground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model‐data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.     

Tropical understory herbaceous community responds more strongly to hurricane disturbance than to experimental warming

The effects of climate change on tropical forests may have global consequences due to the forests’ high biodiversity and major role in the global carbon cycle. In this study, we document the effects of experimental warming on the abundance and composition of a tropical forest floor herbaceous plant community in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. This study was conducted within Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) plots, which use infrared heaters under free‐air, open‐field conditions, to warm understory vegetation and soils + 4°C above nearby control plots. Hurricanes Irma and María damaged the heating infrastructure in the second year of warming, therefore, the study included one pretreatment year, one year of warming, and one year of hurricane response with no warming. We measured percent leaf cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, and species richness and diversity within three warmed and three control plots. Results showed that one year of experimental warming did not significantly affect the cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, species richness, or species diversity. In contrast, herbaceous cover increased from 20% to 70%, bare ground decreased from 70% to 6%, and species composition shifted pre to posthurricane. The negligible effects of warming may have been due to the short duration of the warming treatment or an understory that is somewhat resistant to higher temperatures. Our results suggest that climate extremes that are predicted to increase with climate change, such as hurricanes and droughts, may cause more abrupt changes in tropical forest understories than longer‐term sustained warming.     

Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century

Global change includes multiple stressors to natural ecosystems ranging from direct climate and land‐use impacts to indirect degradation processes resulting from fire. Humid tropical forests are vulnerable to projected climate change and possible synergistic interactions with deforestation and fire, which may initiate a positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO₂. Here, we present results from a multifactorial impact analysis that combined an ensemble of climate change models with feedbacks from deforestation and accidental fires to quantify changes in Amazon Basin carbon cycling. Using the LPJmL Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, we modelled spatio‐temporal changes in net biome production (NBP); the difference between carbon fluxes from fire, deforestation, soil respiration and net primary production. By 2050, deforestation and fire (with no CO₂ increase or climate change) resulted in carbon losses of 7.4–20.3 Pg C with the range of uncertainty depending on socio‐economic storyline. During the same time period, interactions between climate and land use either compensated for carbon losses due to wetter climate and CO₂ fertilization or exacerbated carbon losses from drought‐induced forest mortality (?20.1 to +4.3 Pg C). By the end of the 21st century, depending on climate projection and the rate of deforestation (including its interaction with fire), carbon stocks either increased (+12.6 Pg C) or decreased (?40.6 Pg C). The synergistic effect of deforestation and fire with climate change contributed up to 26–36 Pg C of the overall decrease in carbon stocks. Agreement between climate projections (n=9), not accounting for deforestation and fire, in 2050 and 2098 was relatively low for the directional change in basin‐wide NBP (19–37%) and aboveground live biomass (13–24%). The largest uncertainty resulted from climate projections, followed by implementation of ecosystem dynamics and deforestation. Our analysis partitions the drivers of tropical ecosystem change and is relevant for guiding mitigation and adaptation policy related to global change.     

Anthropogenic activities dominated tropical forest carbon balance in two contrary ways over the Greater Mekong Subregion in the 21st century

The tropical forest carbon (C) balance threatened by extensive socio-economic development in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) in Asia is a notable data gap and remains contentious. Here we generated a long-term spatially quantified assessment of changes in forests and C stocks from 1999 to 2019 at a spatial resolution of 30 m, based on multiple streams of state-of-the-art high-resolution satellite imagery and in situ observations. Our results show that (i) about 0.54 million square kilometers (21.0% of the region) experienced forest cover transitions with a net increase in forest cover by 4.3% (0.11 million square kilometers, equivalent to 0.31 petagram of C [Pg C] stocks); (ii) forest losses mainly in Cambodia, Thailand, and in the south of Vietnam, were also counteracted by forest gains in China due mainly to afforestation; and (iii) at the national level during the study period an increase in both C stocks and C sequestration (net C gain of 0.087 Pg C) in China from new plantation, offset anthropogenetic emissions (net C loss of 0.074 Pg C) mainly in Cambodia and Thailand from deforestation. Political, social, and economic factors significantly influenced forest cover change and C sequestration in the GMS, positively in China while negatively in other countries, especially in Cambodia and Thailand. These findings have implications on national strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation in other hotspots of tropical forests.     

全球森林生态系统碳储量、固碳能力估算及其区域特征

从气候地带性和地理区域分布两方面对森林生态系统碳储量及固碳能力,以及土地利用变化对森林固碳的影响和森林固碳估算不确定性的原因进行综述.据估算,全球森林生态系统碳储量为652～927 Pg C,固碳能力达到4.02 Pg C·a^-1.各气候地带森林碳储量表现为热带最大(471 Pg C),寒带次之(272 Pg C),温带(113～159 Pg C)最小,固碳能力表现为热带(1.02～1.3 Pg C·a^-1)最大,温带次之(0.8 Pg C·a^-1),寒带(0.5 Pg C·a^-1)最小;各地理区域森林碳储量表现为南美洲(187.7～290 Pg C)最大,其次是欧洲(162.6 Pg C)、北美洲(106.7 Pg C)、非洲(98.2 Pg C)和亚洲(74.5 Pg C),而大洋洲(21.7 Pg C)最小,固碳能力为南美洲热带(1276 Tg C·a^-1)和非洲热带(753 Tg C·a^-1)较大,其次是北美洲(248 Tg C·a^-1)和欧洲(239 Tg C·a^-1),而东亚(98.8～136.5 Tg C·a^-1)较小.为进一步减少森林生态系统固碳估算的不确定性,今后应综合运用连续长期观测技术、样地清查、遥感分析和模型模拟等方法.