Evaluation of nutria (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Myocastor coypus</Emphasis>) detection methods in Maryland,USA

Nutria (Myocaster coypus), invasive, semi-aquatic rodents native to South America, were introduced into Maryland near Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (BNWR) in 1943. Irruptive population growth, expansion, and destructive feeding habits resulted in the destruction of thousands of acres of emergent marshes at and surrounding BNWR. In 2002, a partnership of federal, state and private entities initiated an eradication campaign to protect remaining wetlands from further damage and facilitate the restoration of coastal wetlands throughout the Chesapeake Bay region. Program staff removed nearly 14,000 nutria from five infested watersheds in a systematic trapping and hunting program between 2002 and 2014. As part of ongoing surveillance activities, the Chesapeake Bay Nutria Eradication Project uses a variety of tools to detect and remove nutria. Project staff developed a floating raft, or monitoring platform, to determine site occupancy. These platforms are placed along waterways and checked periodically for evidence of nutria visitation. We evaluated the effectiveness of monitoring platforms and three associated detection methods: hair snares, presence of scat, and trail cameras. Our objectives were to (1) determine if platform placement on land or water influenced nutria visitation rates, (2) determine if the presence of hair snares influenced visitation rates, and (3) determine method-specific detection probabilities. Our analyses indicated that platforms placed on land were 1.5–3.0 times more likely to be visited than those placed in water and that platforms without snares were an estimated 1.7–3.7 times more likely to be visited than those with snares. Although the presence of snares appears to have discouraged visitation, seasonal variation may confound interpretation of these results. Scat was the least effective method of determining nutria visitation, while hair snares were as effective as cameras. Estimated detection probabilities provided by occupancy modeling were 0.73 for hair snares, 0.71 for cameras and 0.40 for scat. We recommend the use of hair snares on monitoring platforms as they are the most cost-effective and reliable detection method available at this time. Future research should focus on determining the cause for the observed decrease in nutria visits after snares were applied.     

Invasion genetics of nutria (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Myocastor coypus</Emphasis>) in Okayama,Japan, inferred from mitochondrial and microsatellite markers

Nutria (Myocastor coypus) is a large semi-aquatic rodent native to South America, introduced worldwide for fur farming in the early twentieth century. In Japan, 150 individuals were introduced from the USA in 1939, and their feral populations are currently causing serious problems to aquatic ecosystem and agriculture. Okayama Plain is the largest habitat of nutria in Japan, established by the escapees from breeding farms around the middle of the 1940s. Here, we examined genetic structure of Okayama population and inferred gene flow among populations, using mtDNA and ten microsatellite markers (MS), to estimate eradication units for the effectiveness of population control. For mtDNA, two haplotypes (A and B) were detected in cytochrome b region. Haplotype A was widely distributed in Okayama Plain, while haplotype B was mainly observed around Yoshii River. For MS, Okayama population showed high genetic diversity, comparable to USA and Argentine populations. Genetic differentiation was recognized among drainages with a significant isolation-by-distance pattern. Multivariate analyses and Bayesian clustering method suggested two genetic clusters and radial dispersal around the coast of the Kojima Bay, while these clusters did not necessarily concord with mtDNA haplotypes in distribution. Genetic heterogeneity tended to be higher in males than in females, and females exhibited a higher relatedness than males in Asahi River. These results suggest that nutria in Okayama Plain originated from farming sites downstream in Yoshii and Takahashi Rivers and have expanded its distribution along rivers via tributaries. Mitochondrial-nuclear discordance seems to be due to male-biased dispersal in nutria.     

Dispersal Pathways and Genetic Differentiation among Worldwide Populations of the Invasive Weed Centaurea solstitialis L. (Asteraceae)

The natural history of introduced species is often unclear due to a lack of historical records. Even when historical information is readily available, important factors of the invasions such as genetic bottlenecks, hybridization, historical relationships among populations and adaptive changes are left unknown. In this study, we developed a set of nuclear, simple sequence repeat markers and used these to characterize the genetic diversity and population structure among native (Eurasian) and non-native (North and South American) populations of Centaurea solstitialis L., (yellow starthistle). We used these data to test hypotheses about the invasion pathways of the species that were based on historical and geographical records, and we make inferences about historical relationships among populations and demographic processes following invasion. We confirm that the center of diversity and the native range of the species is likely the eastern Mediterranean region in the vicinity of Turkey. From this region, the species likely proceeded to colonize other parts of Europe and Asia via a slow, stepwise range expansion. Spanish populations were the primary source of seed to invade South America via human-mediated events, as was evident from historical records, but populations from the eastern Mediterranean region were also important. North American populations were largely derived from South America, but had secondary contributors. We suggest that the introduction history of non-native populations from disparate parts of the native range have allowed not just one, but multiple opportunities first in South America then again in North America for the creation of novel genotypes via intraspecific hybridization. We propose that multiple intraspecific hybridization events may have created especially potent conditions for the selection of a noxious invader, and may explain differences in genetic patterns among North and South America populations, inferred differences in demographic processes, as well as morphological differences previously reported from common garden experiments.     

Evaluation of Attractants to Improve Trapping Success of Nutria on Louisiana Coastal Marsh

ABSTRACT Nutria (Myocastor coypus) are an important part of the Louisiana (USA) fur industry, but high densities of nutria cause extensive damage to coastal marsh ecosystems. Hence, there is a need to develop improved methods for targeted management of nutria. We screened 14 olfactory cues as potential lures for nutria, first in controlled settings and then in the field, to see if nutria capture rates using foothold traps would increase. In Y-maze trials, nutria most frequently selected olfactory cues of a synthetic formulation of nutria anal-gland secretion and nutria fur extract. We examined the 3 most selected attractants in Y-maze trials and female nutria urine under field conditions to compare trapping success over untreated traps. Capture probability was nearly 2.5 times greater for fur wash than control and 2 times greater for urine than control (relative risk = 2.43 and 2.01, respectively). The results suggest that use of semiochemicals and synthetic formulations of semiochemicals increased nutria trapping success. Development and use of effective synthetic semiochemicals could benefit resource managers nationwide who are responsible for reducing damage caused by this invasive herbivore.     

Niche shifts during the global invasion of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae), revealed by reciprocal distribution models

Aim Niche‐based distribution models are often used to predict the spread of invasive species. These models assume niche conservation during invasion, but invasive species can have different requirements from populations in their native range for many reasons, including niche evolution. I used distribution modelling to investigate niche conservatism for the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus Skuse) during its invasion of three continents. I also used this approach to predict areas at risk of invasion from propagules originating from invasive populations. Location Models were created for Southeast Asia, North and South America, and Europe. Methods I used maximum entropy (Maxent ) to create distribution models using occurrence data and 18 environmental datasets. One native model was created for Southeast Asia; this model was projected onto North America, South America and Europe. Three models were created independently for the non‐native ranges and projected onto the native range. Niche overlap between native and non‐native predictions was evaluated by comparing probability surfaces between models using real data and random models generated using a permutation approach. Results The native model failed to predict an entire region of occurrences in South America, approximately 20% of occurrences in North America and nearly all Italian occurrences of A. albopictus. Non‐native models poorly predict the native range, but predict additional areas at risk for invasion globally. Niche overlap metrics indicate that non‐native distributions are more similar to the native niche than a random prediction, but they are not equivalent. Multivariate analyses support modelled differences in niche characteristics among continents, and reveal important variables explaining these differences. Main conclusions The niche of A. albopictus has shifted on invaded continents relative to its native range (Southeast Asia). Statistical comparisons reveal that the niche for introduced distributions is not equivalent to the native niche. Furthermore, reciprocal models highlight the importance of controlling bi‐directional dispersal between native and non‐native distributions.     

Invasive trees and shrubs: where do they come from and what we should expect in the future?

The global database of invasive trees and shrubs has been updated, resulting in a total of 751 species (434 trees and 317 shrubs) from 90 families (Rejmánek and Richardson 2013 Divers Distrib 19:1093–1094). This database is used to assess major trends in human-assisted exchanges of dendrofloras among 15 major geographical regions. Areas most invaded by non-native trees are Pacific Islands (136 species), Southern Africa (118), Australia (116), and North America (114). Areas most invaded by non-native shrubs are North America (98), Australia (87), Pacific Islands (71), and Europe (61). The most important sources of invasive trees are Asia (122–146 species, depending on how many Eurasian species are considered to have been introduced only from Europe), Australia (81), and South America (81). The most important sources of invasive shrubs are Asia (103–118), Europe (68), and South America (54). Mean number of native geographical regions for invasive trees is 1.64, while the mean number of invaded regions by trees is 2.51. The difference is smaller for shrubs: 1.60 versus 2.11. Asia is the major source of invasive Rosaceae shrubs, as well as invasive Arecaceae and Oleaceae species. South America and Australia are major sources of invasive Fabaceae trees. North America and Europe are major sources of invasive Pinaceae. Most of the invasive Salicaceae are of Eurasian origin. The identified trends will very likely continue in this century. Because of increasing interactions with many states in Asia, even more invasive woody species will be introduced from this part of the world.     

Biological invasion risk assessment of Tuta absoluta: mechanistic versus correlative methods

The capacity to assess invasion risk from potential crop pests before invasion of new regions globally would be invaluable, but this requires the ability to predict accurately their potential geographic range and relative abundance in novel areas. This may be unachievable using de facto standard correlative methods as shown for the South American tomato pinworm Tuta absoluta, a serious insect pest of tomato native to South America. Its global invasive potential was not identified until after rapid invasion of Europe, followed by Africa and parts of Asia where it has become a major food security problem on solanaceous crops. Early prospective assessment of its potential range is possible using physiologically based demographic modeling that would have identified knowledge gaps in T. absoluta biology at low temperatures. Physiologically based demographic models (PBDMs) realistically capture the weather-driven biology in a mechanistic way allowing evaluation of invasive risk in novel areas and climes including climate change. PBDMs explain the biological bases for the geographic distribution, are generally applicable to species of any taxa, are not limited to terrestrial ecosystems, and hence can be extended to support ecological risk modeling in aquatic ecosystems. PBDMs address a lack of unified general methods for assessing and managing invasive species that has limited invasion biology from becoming a more predictive science.

     

Evaluating the invasion risk of longhorn crazy ants (Paratrechina longicornis) in South Korea using spatial distribution model

The longhorn crazy ant (Paratrechina longicornis) is a globally distributed ant species with a high invasion risk, suggesting the need to use species distribution modeling to evaluate its potential distribution. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the potential distribution of longhorn crazy ants in response to climate change by using CLIMEX and Maxent and identifying the climatic factors that influence their habitat. Then, the model outcomes were used to construct an ensemble map to evaluate invasion risk in South Korea. The results indicated that temperature-related variables mainly affect the distribution of the longhorn crazy ant, and the two models showed consensus regions in South America, Africa, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Due to climate change, it was expected that the northern limit would somewhat rise. In South Korea, high-risk areas were predicted to be located along the coasts, but they would expand as a consequence of climate change. Since the invasion of longhorn crazy ants has occurred via commercial trades, a relatively high risk in coastal areas demands a high level of attention. We expect that this study will provide initial insight into selecting areas for longhorn crazy ant quarantine with ensemble species distribution modeling.     

The invasion route for an insect pest species: the tobacco aphid in the New World

Biological invasions are rapid evolutionary events in which populations are usually subject to a founder event during introduction followed by rapid adaptation to the new environment. Molecular tools and Bayesian approaches have shown their utility in exploring different evolutionary scenarios regarding the invasion routes of introduced species. We examined the situation for the tobacco aphid, Myzus persicae nicotianae, a recently introduced aphid species in Chile. Using seven microsatellite loci and approximate Bayesian computation, we studied populations of the tobacco aphid sampled from several American and European countries, identifying the most likely source populations and tracking the route of introduction to Chile. Our population genetic data are consistent with available historical information, pointing to an introduction route of the tobacco aphid from Europe and/or from other putative populations (e.g. Asia) with subsequent introduction through North America to South America. Evidence of multiple introductions to North America from different genetic pools, with successive loss of genetic diversity from Europe towards North America and a strong bottleneck during the southward introduction to South America, was also found. Additionally, we examined the special case of a widespread multilocus genotype that was found in all American countries examined. This case provides further evidence for the existence of highly successful genotypes or 'superclones' in asexually reproducing organisms.     

Predicting the current distribution and potential spread of the exotic grass Eragrostis plana Nees in South America and identifying a bioclimatic niche shift during invasion

Eragrostis plana (Poaceae) is a perennial grass introduced from South Africa to the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil. Currently, it is considered an invasive grass in several regions of the world, including South America, where it has caused negative ecological and socio‐economic impacts. Ecological niche models, using bioclimatic variables, are often used to predict the potential distribution of invasive species. In this study we prepared two bioclimatic models for E. plana using the Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐set Production, the first based on data from its native region (South Africa) and the second on data from both the native and invaded (South America) regions. We then projected each model onto South America to identify regions vulnerable to invasion by the species, and compared our results with available records of the species in South America. Finally, we explored the model's predictions for the existence of a bioclimatic niche shift during the invasion process of E. plana in South America, using multivariate statistical analysis. The model created with native distribution data was only able to predict (with highly suitable habitat) the region of introduction of E. plana in South America. However, the current distribution, as well as the region of introduction of the species, was reliably predicted by the model created with data from both native and invaded regions. Our multivariate analysis supports a hypothesis of bioclimatic niche shift during the invasion process of E. plana in South America.     

A time series of evolution in action: a latitudinal cline in wing size in South American Drosophila subobscura

Drosophila subobscura is geographically widespread in the Old World. Around the late 1970s, it was accidentally introduced into both South and North America, where it spread rapidly over broad latitudinal ranges. This invading species offers opportunities to study the speed and predictability of trait evolution on a geographic scale. One trait of special interest is body size, which shows a strong and positive latitudinal cline in many Drosophila species, including Old World D. subobscura. Surveys made about a decade after the invasion found no evidence of a size cline in either North or South America. However, a survey made in North America about two decades after the invasion showed that a conspicuous size cline had evolved and (for females) was coincident with that for Old World flies. We have now conducted parallel studies on 10 populations (13 degrees of latitude) of flies, collected in Chile in spring 1999. After rearing flies in the laboratory for several generations, we measured wing sizes and compared geographic patterns (versus latitude or temperature) for flies on all three continents. South American females have now evolved a significant latitudinal size cline that is similar in slope to that of Old World and of North American flies. Rates of evolution (haldanes) for females are among the highest ever measured for quantitative traits. In contrast, the size cline is positive but not significant for South or North American males. At any given latitude, South American flies of both sexes are relatively large; this in part reflects the relatively cool climate of coastal Chile. Interestingly, the sections of the wing that generate the size cline for females differ among all three continents. Thus, although the evolution of overall wing size is predictable on a geographic scale (at least for females), the evolution of size of particular wing components is decidedly not.     

Ancient and modern colonization of North America by hemlock woolly adelgid,Adelges tsugae (Hemiptera: Adelgidae), an invasive insect from East Asia

Hemlock woolly adelgid, Adelges tsugae, is an invasive pest of hemlock trees (Tsuga) in eastern North America. We used 14 microsatellites and mitochondrial COI sequences to assess its worldwide genetic structure and reconstruct its colonization history. The resulting information about its life cycle, biogeography and host specialization could help predict invasion by insect herbivores. We identified eight endemic lineages of hemlock adelgids in central China, western China, Ulleung Island (South Korea), western North America, and two each in Taiwan and Japan, with the Japanese lineages specializing on different Tsuga species. Adelgid life cycles varied at local and continental scales with different sexual, obligately asexual and facultatively asexual lineages. Adelgids in western North America exhibited very high microsatellite heterozygosity, which suggests ancient asexuality. The earliest lineages diverged in Asia during Pleistocene glacial periods, as estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Colonization of western North America was estimated to have occurred prior to the last glacial period by adelgids directly ancestral to those in southern Japan, perhaps carried by birds. The modern invasion from southern Japan to eastern North America caused an extreme genetic bottleneck with just two closely related clones detected throughout the introduced range. Both colonization events to North America involved host shifts to unrelated hemlock species. These results suggest that genetic diversity, host specialization and host phylogeny are not predictive of adelgid invasion. Monitoring non‐native sentinel host trees and focusing on invasion pathways might be more effective methods of preventing invasion than making predictions using species traits or evolutionary history.     

Freshwater crayfish invasions in South Africa: past,present and potential future

Freshwater crayfish invasions have been studied around the world, but less so in Africa, a continent devoid of native freshwater crayfish. The present study reviews historical and current information on alien freshwater crayfish species introduced into South Africa and aims to indicate which areas are at risk from invasion. As is the case elsewhere, South Africans have shown a keen interest in both farming and keeping freshwater crayfish as pets, which has resulted in Cherax cainii, Cherax destructor, Cherax quadricarinatus and Procambarus clarkii being introduced to the country. There is evidence of successful establishment in the wild for C. quadricarinatus and P. clarkii in different parts of the country. Species distribution models suggest that the eastern part of the country and parts of the Eastern and Western Cape are at higher risk of invasion. At present, illegal translocations represent the most likely pathway of crayfish spread in South Africa. A continued risk of invasion by freshwater crayfish species in South Africa is highlighted, which reinforces the need for more research, as well as for strong mitigation measures, such as stronger policing of existing regulations, management or eradication where feasible and public education.     

Are local patterns of anthropoid primate diversity related to patterns of diversity at a larger scale?

Aims (1) To determine the relationship between local and regional anthropoid primate species richness. (2) To establish the spatial and temporal scale at which the ultimate processes influencing patterns of primate species coexistence operate. Location Continental landmasses of Africa, South America and Asia (India to China, and all islands as far south as New Guinea). Methods The local–regional species richness relationship for anthropoid primates is estimated by regressing local richness against regional richness (independent variable). Local richness is estimated in small, replicate local assemblages sampled in regions that vary in total species richness. A strong linear relationship is taken as evidence that local assemblages are unsaturated and local richness results from proportional sampling of the regional pool. An asymptotic curvilinear relationship is interpreted to reflect saturated communities, where strong biotic interactions limit local richness and local processes structure the species assemblage. As a further test of the assumption of local assemblage saturation, we looked for density compensation in high‐density local primate assemblages. Results The local–regional species richness relationship was linear for Africa and South America, and the slope of the relationship did not differ between the two continents. For Asia, curvilinearity best described the relationship between local and regional richness. Asian primate assemblages appear to be saturated and this is confirmed by density compensation among Asian primates. However, density compensation was also observed among African primates. The apparent assemblage saturation in Asia is not a species–area phenomenon related to the small size of the isolated islands and their forest blocks, since similar low local species richness occurs in large forests on mainland and/or peninsular Asia. Main conclusions In Africa and South America local primate assemblage composition appears to reflect the influence of biogeographic processes operating on regional spatial scales and historical time scales. In Asia the composition of primate assemblages are by‐and‐large subject to ecological constraint operating over a relatively small spatial and temporal scale. The possible local influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillations on the evolution and selection of life‐history characteristics among Asian primates, and in determining local patterns of primate species coexistence, warrants closer inspection.     

Distributions of exotic plants in eastern Asia and North America

Although some plant traits have been linked to invasion success, the possible effects of regional factors, such as diversity, habitat suitability, and human activity are not well understood. Each of these mechanisms predicts a different pattern of distribution at the regional scale. Thus, where climate and soils are similar, predictions based on regional hypotheses for invasion success can be tested by comparisons of distributions in the source and receiving regions. Here, we analyse the native and alien geographic ranges of all 1567 plant species that have been introduced between eastern Asia and North America or have been introduced to both regions from elsewhere. The results reveal correlations between the spread of exotics and both the native species richness and transportation networks of recipient regions. This suggests that both species interactions and human-aided dispersal influence exotic distributions, although further work on the relative importance of these processes is needed.     

Spread and impact of introduced conifers in South America: Lessons from other southern hemisphere regions

The history of conifers introduced earlier elsewhere in the southern hemisphere suggests that recent invasions in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay are likely to increase in number and size. In South Africa, New Zealand and Australia, early ornamental introductions and small forestry plantations did not lead to large‐scale invasions, while subsequent large plantations were followed with a lag of about 20–30 years by troublesome invasions. Large‐scale conifer plantation forestry in South America began about 50–80 years later than in South Africa, Australia and New Zealand, while reports of invasions in South America lagged behind those in the latter nations by a century. Impacts of invading non‐native conifers outside South America are varied and include replacement of grassland and shrubland by conifer forest, alteration of fire and hydrological regimes, modification of soil nutrients, and changes in aboveground and belowground biotic communities. Several of these effects have already been detected in various parts of South America undergoing conifer invasion. The sheer amount of area planted in conifers is already very large in Chile and growing rapidly in Argentina and Brazil. This mass of reproductive trees, in turn, produces an enormous propagule pressure that may accelerate ongoing invasions and spark new ones at an increasing rate. Regulations to control conifer invasions, including measures to mitigate spread, were belatedly implemented in New Zealand and South Africa, as well as in certain Australian states, inspired by observations on invasions in those nations. Regulations in South America are weaker and piecemeal, but the existing research base on conifer invasions elsewhere could be useful in fashioning effective regulations in South America. Pressure from foreign customers in South Africa has led most companies there to seek certification through the Forestry Stewardship Council; a similar programme operates in Australia. Such an approach may be promising in South America.     

Widespread plant species: natives versus aliens in our changing world

Estimates of the level of invasion for a region are traditionally based on relative numbers of native and alien species. However, alien species differ dramatically in the size of their invasive ranges. Here we present the first study to quantify the level of invasion for several regions of the world in terms of the most widely distributed plant species (natives vs. aliens). Aliens accounted for 51.3% of the 120 most widely distributed plant species in North America, 43.3% in New South Wales (Australia), 34.2% in Chile, 29.7% in Argentina, and 22.5% in the Republic of South Africa. However, Europe had only 1% of alien species among the most widespread species of the flora. Across regions, alien species relative to native species were either as well-distributed (10 comparisons) or more widely distributed (5 comparisons). These striking patterns highlight the profound contribution that widespread invasive alien plants make to floristic dominance patterns across different regions. Many of the most widespread species are alien plants, and, in particular, Europe and Asia appear as major contributors to the homogenization of the floras in the Americas. We recommend that spatial extent of invasion should be explicitly incorporated in assessments of invasibility, globalization, and risk assessments.     

Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is not invasive through Asia: It's been there all along

Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel), is a highly polyphagous fruit fly which, in the last 15 years, has invaded (with or without establishment) Africa, Europe and North America. As a direct result of these invasions, there is increasing research interest in the invasion history and spread patterns of this fly. A statement being repeatedly used in the B. dorsalis invasion literature is that the species was first identified from Taiwan in 1912 and that it subsequently spread through South‐East and South Asia during the 20th century. This assumption is incorrect and stems from: (a) an incomplete knowledge of B. dorsalis taxonomic history; and (b) a confounding of first taxonomic record with first invasion record. Rather than being first detected in Taiwan in 1912, the first record of oriental fruit fly was from “East India” (India orientali) under the synonymous name of Musca ferruginea by Fabricius in 1794, and in the 1910s, it was known not only from Taiwan, but widely across tropical Asia with records from India, Burma, Bengal, Sri Lanka (as Ceylon), Singapore and Indonesia (multiple islands). The taxonomic literature is very clear that oriental fruit fly has not invaded the rest of Asia from Taiwan since 1912, and this error should not continue to be repeated in the literature.     

Predicting the potential geographical distribution of the harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis, using the CLIMEX model

Harmonia axyridis (Pallas, 1773) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) is a ladybird beetle native to temperate and subtropical parts of Asia. Since 1916 populations of this species have been introduced throughout the world, either deliberately, or by accident through international transport. Harmonia axyridis was originally released as a classical biological control agent of aphid and coccid pests in orchards and forests, but since 1994 it is also available as a commercial product for augmentative control in field and greenhouse crops. It is a very voracious and effective natural enemy of aphids, psyllids and coccids in various agricultural and horticultural habitats and forests. During the past 20 years, however, it has successfully invaded non-target habitats in North America (since 1988), Europe (1999) and South America (2001) respectively in a short period of time, attacking a wide range of non-pest species in different insect orders. Becoming part of the agricultural commercial pathway, it is prone to being introduced into large areas across the world by accident. We use the CLIMEX programme (v2) to predict the potential geographical distribution of H. axyridis by means of matching the climate of its region of origin with other regions in the world and taking in account biological characteristics of the species. Establishment and spread seem likely in many regions across the world, including those areas which H. axyridis has already invaded (temperate Europe, North America). Based on the CLIMEX prediction a large part of Mediterranean Europe, South America, Africa, Australia and New Zealand seem highly suitable for long-term survival of H. axyridis as well. In addition we evaluate CLIMEX as a strategic tool for estimating establishment potential as part of an environmental risk assessment procedure for biological control agents we discuss biological and ecological aspects necessary to fine-tune its establishment and spread in areas after it has been introduced.