River macrophyte indices: not the Holy Grail!

1. Recent studies have demonstrated that there is generally no unambiguous relationship between plant species composition and specific environmental conditions in rivers. Nevertheless, indices of environmental pressures based on macrophytes are flourishing, because of the requirements of the Water Framework Directive (WFD). 2. We first reviewed nine such indices against 13 criteria for bioindicators. Then, using data from France and England, we tested whether the IBMR (Macrophyte Biological Index for Rivers) and LEAFPACS (predictions and classification system for macrophytes) methods could reliably indicate nutrient and hydromorphological pressures. Finally, we used an improved bootstrapping method to estimate accuracy. 3. Currently, most indices lack ecological meaning for a variety of reasons, including partial sampling (backwaters are excluded); reliance on list of taxa (there are identification difficulties) rather than structure and functions; correlation rather than causation; application within a limited biogeographical area; reliance on ‘expert’ judgement; high precision but poor accuracy; poorly defined reference conditions; lack of independent tests; and an inability to discriminate reliably between the target pressures of interest from confounding background variables. 4. IBMR was a far better indicator of pH (or HCO₃‐pCO₂) than it was of soluble reactive phosphorus, SRP (or SRP‐NH₄). While there was a highly significant correlation between IBMR and SRP after removing the effect of pH, the relationship was weak (r² = 0.08, n = 215, P < 0.001). 5. LEAFPACS is a multi‐metric method summing up five individual indices, each compliant with the WFD. Its individual metrics were not better correlated with nutrient and hydromorphological pressures (with r² < 0.1, n = 62, P < 0.05) than was the IBMR. The meaning of the overall metric is questionable. 6. There are problems in determining the precision of the indices, owing to uncertainties in recording, but they are less than the uncertainties in determining accuracy (because species optima and tolerances are sometimes poorly known). 7. Reliable information is needed to improve the state of our rivers. Macrophyte indices are able to detect statistically significant pressures from a large population of sites but cannot be applied at specific sites, as required by the WFD, owing to large uncertainties and low explanatory power. Typically, more than 90% of the variability in macrophyte indices is attributed to factors other than human pressure. The WFD would be better served by a simpler, holistic approach based on our current mechanistic understanding of river processes. These findings are likely to apply also to other taxonomic groups (macroinvertebrates, diatoms, fish) used in the assessment of purported ecological quality and to palaeolimnological measures of reference status.     

Assessing the impact of errors in sorting and identifying macroinvertebrate samples

This study assesses the impact of errors in sorting and identifying macroinvertebrate samples collected and analysed using different protocols (e.g. STAR-AQEM, RIVPACS). The study is based on the auditing scheme implemented in the EU-funded project STAR and presents the first attempt at analysing the audit data. Data from 10 participating countries are analysed with regard to the impact of sorting and identification errors. These differences are measured in the form of gains and losses at each level of audit for 120 samples. Based on gains and losses to the primary results, qualitative binary taxa lists were deducted for each level of audit for a subset of 72 data sets. Between these taxa lists the taxonomic similarity and the impact of differences on selected metrics common to stream assessment were analysed. The results of our study indicate that in all methods used, a considerable amount of sorting and identification error could be detected. This total impact is reflected in most functional metrics. In some metrics indicative of taxonomic richness, the total impact of differences is not directly reflected in differences in metric scores. The results stress the importance of implementing quality control mechanisms in macroinvertebrate assessment schemes. Peter Haase, Andrea Sundermann: These authors contributed equally to this work.     

Uncertainty in the age of fossils and the stratigraphic fit to phylogenies

The ages of first appearance of fossil taxa in the stratigraphic record are inherently associated to an interval of error or uncertainty, rather than being precise point estimates. Contrasting this temporal information with topologies of phylogenetic relationships is relevant to many aspects of evolutionary studies. Several indices have been proposed to compare the ages of first appearance of fossil taxa and phylogenies. For computing most of these indices, the ages of first appearance of fossil taxa are currently used as point estimates, ignoring their associated errors or uncertainties. The effect of age uncertainty on measures of stratigraphic fit to phylogenies is explored here for two indices based on the extension of ghost lineages (MSM* and GER). A solution based on randomization of the ages of terminal taxa is implemented, resulting in a range of possible values for measures of stratigraphic fit to phylogenies, rather than in a precise but arbitrary stratigraphic fit value. Sample cases show that ignoring the age uncertainty of fossil taxa can produce misleading results when comparing the stratigraphic fit of competing phylogenetic hypotheses. Empirical test cases of alternative phylogenies of two dinosaur groups are analyzed through the randomization procedure proposed here.     

Trophic and Non-Trophic Interactions in a Biodiversity Experiment Assessed by Next-Generation Sequencing

Plant diversity affects species richness and abundance of taxa at higher trophic levels. However, plant diversity effects on omnivores (feeding on multiple trophic levels) and their trophic and non-trophic interactions are not yet studied because appropriate methods were lacking. A promising approach is the DNA-based analysis of gut contents using next generation sequencing (NGS) technologies. Here, we integrate NGS-based analysis into the framework of a biodiversity experiment where plant taxonomic and functional diversity were manipulated to directly assess environmental interactions involving the omnivorous ground beetle Pterostichus melanarius. Beetle regurgitates were used for NGS-based analysis with universal 18S rDNA primers for eukaryotes. We detected a wide range of taxa with the NGS approach in regurgitates, including organisms representing trophic, phoretic, parasitic, and neutral interactions with P. melanarius. Our findings suggest that the frequency of (i) trophic interactions increased with plant diversity and vegetation cover; (ii) intraguild predation increased with vegetation cover, and (iii) neutral interactions with organisms such as fungi and protists increased with vegetation cover. Experimentally manipulated plant diversity likely affects multitrophic interactions involving omnivorous consumers. Our study therefore shows that trophic and non-trophic interactions can be assessed via NGS to address fundamental questions in biodiversity research.     

Invasive willows drive instream community structure

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Identifying error and accurately interpreting environmental DNA metabarcoding results: A case study to detect vertebrates at arid zone waterholes

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding surveys enable rapid, noninvasive identification of taxa from trace samples with wide‐ranging applications from characterizing local biodiversity to identifying food‐web interactions. However, the technique is prone to error from two major sources: (a) contamination through foreign DNA entering the workflow, and (b) misidentification of DNA within the workflow. Both types of error have the potential to obscure true taxon presence or to increase taxonomic richness by incorrectly identifying taxa as present at sample sites, but multiple error sources can remain unaccounted for in metabarcoding studies. Here, we use data from an eDNA metabarcoding study designed to detect vertebrate species at waterholes in Australia's arid zone to illustrate where and how in the workflow errors can arise, and how to mitigate those errors. We detected the DNA of 36 taxa spanning 34 families, 19 orders and five vertebrate classes in water samples from waterholes, demonstrating the potential for eDNA metabarcoding surveys to provide rapid, noninvasive detection in remote locations, and to widely sample taxonomic diversity from aquatic through to terrestrial taxa. However, we initially identified 152 taxa in the samples, meaning there were many false positive detections. We identified the sources of these errors, allowing us to design a stepwise process to detect and remove error, and provide a template to minimize similar errors that are likely to arise in other metabarcoding studies. Our findings suggest eDNA metabarcoding surveys need to be carefully conducted and screened for errors to ensure their accuracy.     

Bias and error in using survey records for ponderosa pine landscape restoration

Aim Public land survey records are commonly used to reconstruct historical forest structure over large landscapes. Reconstruction studies have been criticized for using absolute measures of forest attributes, such as density and basal area, because of potential selection bias by surveyors and unknown measurement error. Current methods to identify bias are based upon statistical techniques whose assumptions may be violated for survey data. Our goals were to identify and directly estimate common sources of bias and error, and to test the accuracy of statistical methods to identify them. Location Forests in the western USA: Mogollon Plateau, Arizona; Blue Mountains, Oregon; Front Range, Colorado. Methods We quantified both selection bias and measurement error for survey data in three ponderosa pine landscapes by directly comparing measurements of bearing trees in survey notes with remeasurements of bearing trees at survey corners (384 corners and 812 trees evaluated). Results Selection bias was low in all areas and there was little variability among surveyors. Surveyors selected the closest tree to the corner 95% to 98% of the time, and hence bias may have limited impacts on reconstruction studies. Bourdo’s methods were able to successfully detect presence or absence of bias most of the time, but do not measure the rate of bias. Recording and omission errors were common but highly variable among surveyors. Measurements for bearing trees made by surveyors were generally accurate. Most bearings were less than 5° in error and most distances were within 5% of our remeasurements. Many, but not all, surveyors in the western USA probably estimated diameter of bearing trees at stump height (0.3 m). These estimates deviated from reconstructed diameters by a mean absolute error of 7.0 to 10.6 cm. Main conclusions Direct comparison of survey data at relocated corners is the only method that can determine if bias and error are meaningful. Data from relocated trees show that biased selection of trees is not likely to be an important source of error. Many surveyor errors would have no impact on reconstruction studies, but omission errors have the potential to have a large impact on results. We suggest how to reduce potential errors through data screening.     

Aquatic Macrophyte Approach to Assess the Impact of Disturbances on the Diversity of the Ecosystem and on River Quality

Disturbance has long been recognized as an important determinant of community characteristics in aquatic systems. The aims of our study were to evaluate the impact of different disturbances on the macrophyte diversity and on river quality. To this end, we investigated the floristic composition for different stretches impacted by disturbances and we tested both diversity indices and the trophic index (IBMR) “Biological Index Macrophytes in Rivers” in the Moselle river (NE of France). The river was divided into four sections of different lengths based on uniformity of morphological characteristics, substrate conditions and flowing velocity: the upper, the wild, the resectioned and the downstream Moselle. Floristic composition and water chemical parameters were analysed from 1999 to 2001. The man‐made increase of nutrient concentration favoured the floristic richness in the last sites of the upper Moselle, whereas river dynamics and floods did not allow the development of vegetation in the wild Moselle. Disturbances caused by industrial sewage and eutrophication allowed the spreading of pollu‐tolerant and riparian alien species. The aquatic macrophyte approach is a useful means to detect impact of disturbances on diversity and on river quality. However, it was not effective in assessing disturbances such as flood overflow or chemical pollution. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

A large‐area,spatially continuous assessment of land cover map error and its impact on downstream analyses

Land cover maps increasingly underlie research into socioeconomic and environmental patterns and processes, including global change. It is known that map errors impact our understanding of these phenomena, but quantifying these impacts is difficult because many areas lack adequate reference data. We used a highly accurate, high‐resolution map of South African cropland to assess (1) the magnitude of error in several current generation land cover maps, and (2) how these errors propagate in downstream studies. We first quantified pixel‐wise errors in the cropland classes of four widely used land cover maps at resolutions ranging from 1 to 100 km, and then calculated errors in several representative “downstream” (map‐based) analyses, including assessments of vegetative carbon stocks, evapotranspiration, crop production, and household food security. We also evaluated maps’ spatial accuracy based on how precisely they could be used to locate specific landscape features. We found that cropland maps can have substantial biases and poor accuracy at all resolutions (e.g., at 1 km resolution, up to ～45% underestimates of cropland (bias) and nearly 50% mean absolute error (MAE, describing accuracy); at 100 km, up to 15% underestimates and nearly 20% MAE). National‐scale maps derived from higher‐resolution imagery were most accurate, followed by multi‐map fusion products. Constraining mapped values to match survey statistics may be effective at minimizing bias (provided the statistics are accurate). Errors in downstream analyses could be substantially amplified or muted, depending on the values ascribed to cropland‐adjacent covers (e.g., with forest as adjacent cover, carbon map error was 200%–500% greater than in input cropland maps, but ～40% less for sparse cover types). The average locational error was 6 km (600%). These findings provide deeper insight into the causes and potential consequences of land cover map error, and suggest several recommendations for land cover map users.     

Fish assemblage–environment relationships suggest differential trophic responses to heavy metal contamination

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Impact of abundance data errors on the uncertainty of an ecological water quality assessment index

Increased awareness about the uncertainty of ecological water quality (EWQ) assessment tools in river management has led to the identification of the underlying uncertainty sources and the quantification of their effect on assessment. More specifically, with respect to macroinvertebrate-based EWQ assessment, use of erroneous abundance data has been identified as a (possible) source of uncertainty. In this paper, the effect of erroneous abundance data on the uncertainty of an EWQ assessment index was investigated. A model simulation based method, the virtual ecologist approach, was used to estimate the impact of abundance data errors on the uncertainty of the Multimetric Macroinvertebrate Index Flanders (MMIF). The results of this study show that the effects of relative small errors on the MMIF and assessment are limited. Additionally, it is observed that uncertainties due to abundance errors increase with decreasing EWQ (i.e. lower MMIF). This is important, since decision-makers typically formulate management actions for rivers with a low EWQ. In short, the innovative virtual ecologist approach proved to be very successful to research the index uncertainty and present a unique insight in the functioning of the assessment index.     

Molecular taxonomic identification of Dacus and Ceratitis species from Sub-Saharan Africa using mitochondrial haplotypes

Several different taxa within the genera Dacus and Ceratitis (Diptera: Tephritidae) are important agricultural pests in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although the status of many of these taxa as distinct species and their phylogenetic relationships is unclear, it is clear that these pests use a wide range of host plants and are highly invasive. The great potential for economic damage inflicted by these pests requires the ability to make accurate and reliable taxonomic identification of specimens. However, many limitations and uncertainties are encountered when these species are examined using traditional approaches based on morphological identification techniques. We describe here the amplification and analysis of DNA sequences from the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase II (COII)-tRNA(lys)-tRNA(ASP) genes from individuals of various Dacus and Ceratitis species and populations from Sub-Saharan Africa. The variation detected in the DNA sequences of these individuals is used both for clarification of their taxonomic status and the analysis of phylogenetic relationships of these taxa.     

Incorporating DEM Uncertainty in Coastal Inundation Mapping

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.     

Influences of transect relocation errors on line-point estimates of plant cover

The line-point transect method has been used to estimate plant cover for about nine decades. In particular, the method is often used to determine baseline plant cover and monitor for changes in plant cover over time. In such cases, detection of change requires both the initial transect starting position and angle of orientation are exact in relocation without error. A study was conducted on influences of errors in basal cover estimates that resulted from inexact relocation and orientation of a resample transect. Simulation studies of actual field data showed that variation in plant cover estimates from relocated line-point transects increased with each source of error and combinations of these errors. Relocated transects resulted in unbiased estimates of total-plant cover only when means over all transects are used to detect changes over time. Substantial errors were observed when the mean cover of individually relocated transect was compared to its original transect.     

Assessment of sources of uncertainty in macrophyte surveys and the consequences for river classification

The application of macrophytes in freshwater monitoring is still relatively limited and studies on their intercalibration and sources of variation are required. Therefore, the aim of the study was to compare selected indices and metrics based on macrophytes and to quantify their variability. During the STAR project, several aspects influencing uncertainty in estimation of the ecological quality of river were assessed. Results showed that several metrics based on the indicative value of plant species can be used in evaluation of the ecological status of rivers. Among estimated sources of variance in metric values the inter-surveyor differences had the lowest effect and slightly stronger were the influences of temporal variation (years and seasons) and shading. The impact of habitat modification was the most important factor. Analysis showed that some of macrophyte-based metrics (notably MTR and IBMR) are of sufficient precision in terms of sampling uncertainty, that they could be useful for estimating the ecological status of rivers in accordance with the aims of the Water Framework Directive.     

Trophic Structure of One Deep-sea Benthic Fish Community in the Eastern Canadian Arctic: Application of Food, Parasites and Multivariate Analysis

Synopsis As new arctic marine fisheries develop there is need for a comprehensive ecosystem approach to long-term management. This approach recognizes the importance of community interactions such as food web structure and trophic patterns. We determined whether hierarchical clustering (guild formation) is an effective method of trophic evaluation in deep-sea Artic fish communities using stomach content and parasite data with size class, and evaluated the application of endohelminth communities (parasite species transmitted in the food) as indicators of trophic status. Cluster analysis using food group abundance with size class of fish revealed the presence of 11 guilds within the community, however the same analysis using parasite data showed little correlation between food and parasites. Redundancy analysis (RDA) within the 11 guilds also revealed no significant correlations between food group and parasite abundance suggesting that this type of ordination is not suited for environments containing mainly generalist feeders. RDA of individual taxa without a priori guild designation found that taxa in benthic deep-sea communities are defined by their ability to exploit prey species in more than one habitat zone. Benthic fish species were significantly correlated with benthic food groups and parasites that utilize benthic intermediate hosts whereas benthopelagic–pelagic species fed on a higher diversity of prey species and were infected by a larger number of non-host specific parasites. Eigenanalysis and Monte Carlo results showed that parasites and food groups are highly correlated, indicating that parasite community analysis is an effective tool for predicting feeding strategies in Arctic marine environments. It also suggests that in most cases endoparasite infections alone could be used for trophic evaluation in the absence of stomach content data.     

Multi‐surveyor capture‐mark‐recapture as a powerful tool for butterfly population monitoring in the pre‐imaginal stage

For many elusive insect species, which are difficult to cover by standard monitoring schemes, innovative survey methods are needed to gain robust data on abundance and population trends. We suggest a monitoring of overwintering larvae for the endangered nymphalid butterfly Limenitis reducta. We tested different removal and capture‐mark‐recapture (CMR) approaches in a field study in the “Alb‐Donau” region, Germany. Classical removal and CMR studies require movement of the organisms under study, but in our approach, we replaced movement of the study organisms by random movement of multiple different surveyors. We tested the validity of the approach by comparing detection frequencies from our field data with simulated detections. Our results indicate that multi‐surveyor removal/CMR techniques are suitable for estimating abundance of overwintering L. reducta larvae. Depending on surveyor experience, the average detection probability ranged between 16% for novices and 35% for experts. The uncertainty of population estimates increased with a decrease in personnel expenditure. Estimated larval densities on a spruce clear‐cut varied between one and three individuals per 100 m², probably related to habitat conditions. We suggest a CMR approach with three to four trained surveyors for the monitoring of L. reducta populations in the overwintering stage. Compared with previous sampling methods, our approach is a powerful tool with clear advantages: long survey period, estimates of the absolute population size accompanied by uncertainty measures, and estimates of overwinter mortality. The proposed method can be adapted and used for several different butterfly species, other insect taxa with specific immobile life stages, and some sessile organisms, for example, elusive plants, fungi, or corals.     

Uncertainties of synchrotron microCT-based digital volume correlation bone strain measurements under simulated deformation

Digital Volume Correlation (DVC) is used to measure internal displacements and strains in bone. Recent studies have shown that Synchrotron radiation micro-computed tomography (SR-microCT) can improve the accuracy and precision of DVC. However, only zero-strain or virtually-moved test have been used to quantify the DVC uncertainties, leading to potential underestimation of the measurement errors.In this study, for the first time, the uncertainties of a global DVC approach have been evaluated on repeated SR-microCT scans of bovine cortical bone (voxel size: 1.6 μm), which were virtually deformed for different magnitudes and along different directions.The results showed that systematic and random errors of the normal strain components along the deformation direction were higher than the errors along unstrained directions. The systematic percentage errors were smaller for larger virtual deformations. The random percentage error was in the order of 10% of the virtual deformation. However, higher errors were localized at the boundary of the volumes of interest, perpendicular to the deformation direction. When only the central region of the samples was considered (100 µm layers removed from the borders where the deformation was applied), the errors in the direction of virtual deformation were comparable to the errors in the unstrained directions.In conclusion, the method presented to estimate the uncertainties of DVC is suitable for testing anisotropic specimens as cortical bone. The good agreement between the uncertainties in measurements of strain components obtained with this approach and with the simpler zero-strain-test suggests that the latter is adequate in the tested deformation scenarios.