The neutral theory is dead. Long live the neutral theory

The neutral theory of molecular evolution has been instrumental in organizing our thinking about the nature of evolutionary forces shaping variation at the DNA level. More importantly, it has provided empiricists with a strong set of testable predictions and hence, a useful null hypothesis against which to test for the presence of selection. Evidence indicates that the neutral theory cannot explain key features of protein evolution nor patterns of biased codon usage in certain species. Whereas we now have a reasonable model of selection acting on synonymous changes in Drosophila, protein evolution remains poorly understood. Despite limitations in the applicability of the neutral theory, it is likely to remain an integral part of the quest to understand molecular evolution.     

The neutral theory of molecular evolution: a review of recent evidence

In sharp contrast to the Darwinian theory of evolution by natural selection, the neutral theory claims that the overwhelming majority of evolutionary changes at the molecular level are caused by random fixation (due to random sampling drift in finite populations) of selectively neutral (i.e., selectively equivalent) mutants under continued inputs of mutations. The theory also asserts that most of the genetic variability within species at the molecular level (such as protein and DNA polymorphism) are selectively neutral or very nearly neutral and that they are maintained in the species by the balance between mutational input and random extinction. The neutral theory is based on simple assumptions, enabling us to develop mathematical theories based on population genetics to treat molecular evolution and variation in quantitative terms. The theory can be tested against actual observations. Neo-Darwinians continue to criticize the neutral theory, but evidence for it has accumulated over the last two decades. The recent outpouring of DNA sequence data has greatly strengthened the theory. In this paper, I review some recent observations that strongly support the neutral theory. They include such topics as pseudoglobin genes of the mouse, alpha A-crystallin genes of the blind mole rat, genes of influenza A virus and nuclear vs. mitochondrial genes of fruit flies. I also discuss such topics as the evolution of deviant coding systems in Mycoplasma, the origin of life and the unified understanding of molecular and phenotypic evolution. I conclude that since the origin of life on Earth, neutral evolutionary changes have predominated over Darwinian evolutionary changes, at least in number.     

Departure from neutrality at the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 gene in humans,but not in chimpanzees.

To test whether patterns of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation are consistent with a neutral model of molecular evolution, nucleotide sequences were determined for the 1041 bp of the NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2 (ND2) gene in 20 geographically diverse humans and 20 common chimpanzees. Contingency tests of neutrality were performed using four mutational categories for the ND2 molecule: synonymous and nonsynonymous mutations in the transmembrane regions, and synonymous and nonsynonymous mutations in the surface regions. The following three topological mutational categories were also used: intraspecific tips, intraspecific interiors, and interspecific fixed differences. The analyses reveal a significantly greater number of nonsynonymous polymorphisms within human transmembrane regions than expected based on interspecific comparisons, and they are inconsistent with a neutral equilibrium model. This pattern of excess nonsynonymous polymorphism is not seen within chimpanzees. Statistical tests of neutrality, such as TAJIMA''s D test, and the D and F tests proposed by FU and LI, indicate an excess of low frequency polymorphisms in the human data, but not in the chimpanzee data. This is consistent with recent directional selection, a population bottleneck or background selection of slightly deleterious mutations in human mtDNA samples. The analyses further support the idea that mitochondrial genome evolution is governed by selective forces that have the potential to affect its use as a "neutral" marker in evolutionary and population genetic studies.     

DNA水平上检测正选择方法的研究进展

达尔文的自然选择学说指出, 自然选择作用是物种进化的主要因素。而1968年Kimura提出的中性进化学说认为中性突变和随机漂变才是进化的主要动力。在接下来的30多年时间中, 人们尝试从各种角度来检测自然选择是否存在。随着DNA测序技术的发展, 大量的DNA序列信息为检验自然选择提供了丰富的数据。因为自然选择会影响DNA变异模式, 所以可以通过分析现有的DNA样本来推断过去是否发生了自然选择。另一方面, 种群历史等因素也会影响到DNA变异模式, 因此会对自然选择的检测产生干扰。文章主要介绍了中性检验基本的概念, 全面回顾了一些经典的检验方法, 并着重介绍了近几年新发展出的研究方向。     

The nearly neutral and selection theories of molecular evolution under the fisher geometrical framework: substitution rate, population size, and complexity

The general theories of molecular evolution depend on relatively arbitrary assumptions about the relative distribution and rate of advantageous, deleterious, neutral, and nearly neutral mutations. The Fisher geometrical model (FGM) has been used to make distributions of mutations biologically interpretable. We explored an FGM-based molecular model to represent molecular evolutionary processes typically studied by nearly neutral and selection models, but in which distributions and relative rates of mutations with different selection coefficients are a consequence of biologically interpretable parameters, such as the average size of the phenotypic effect of mutations and the number of traits (complexity) of organisms. A variant of the FGM-based model that we called the static regime (SR) represents evolution as a nearly neutral process in which substitution rates are determined by a dynamic substitution process in which the population's phenotype remains around a suboptimum equilibrium fitness produced by a balance between slightly deleterious and slightly advantageous compensatory substitutions. As in previous nearly neutral models, the SR predicts a negative relationship between molecular evolutionary rate and population size; however, SR does not have the unrealistic properties of previous nearly neutral models such as the narrow window of selection strengths in which they work. In addition, the SR suggests that compensatory mutations cannot explain the high rate of fixations driven by positive selection currently found in DNA sequences, contrary to what has been previously suggested. We also developed a generalization of SR in which the optimum phenotype can change stochastically due to environmental or physiological shifts, which we called the variable regime (VR). VR models evolution as an interplay between adaptive processes and nearly neutral steady-state processes. When strong environmental fluctuations are incorporated, the process becomes a selection model in which evolutionary rate does not depend on population size, but is critically dependent on the complexity of organisms and mutation size. For SR as well as VR we found that key parameters of molecular evolution are linked by biological factors, and we showed that they cannot be fixed independently by arbitrary criteria, as has usually been assumed in previous molecular evolutionary models.     

Understanding Neutral Genomic Molecular Clocks

The molecular clock hypothesis is a central concept in molecular evolution and has inspired much research into why evolutionary rates vary between and within genomes. In the age of modern comparative genomics, understanding the neutral genomic molecular clock occupies a critical place. It has been demonstrated that molecular clocks run differently between closely related species, and generation time is an important determinant of lineage specific molecular clocks. Moreover, it has been repeatedly shown that regional molecular clocks vary even within a genome, which should be taken into account when measuring evolutionary constraint of specific genomic regions. With the availability of a large amount of genomic sequence data, new insights into the patterns and causes of variation in molecular clocks are emerging. In particular, factors such as nucleotide composition, molecular origins of mutations, weak selection and recombination rates are important determinants of neutral genomic molecular clocks.     

The mode of evolution of molecular markers in populations of house mice under artificial selection for locomotor behavior

A complete understanding of the mode of evolution of molecular markers is important for making inferences about different population genetic parameters, especially because a number of studies have reported patterns of allelic variation at molecular markers that are not in agreement with neutral evolutionary expectations. In the present study, house mice (Mus domesticus) from the fourteenth generation of a selection experiment for increased voluntary wheel-running activity were used to test how selection on a complex behavior affects the distribution of allelic variation by examining patterns of variation at six microsatellite and four allozyme loci. This population had a hierarchical structure that allowed for simultaneous testing of the effects of selection and genetic drift on the distribution of allelic variation by comparing observed patterns of allele frequencies and estimates of genetic divergence at multiple hierarchical levels to expectations under models of neutral evolution. The levels of genetic divergence among replicate lines and between selection groups, estimated from microsatellite data or pooled microsatellite and allozyme data, were not significantly different from expectations under neutral evolution. Furthermore, the pattern of change of allele frequencies between the base population and generation 14 was largely in agreement with expectations under neutral evolution (although the PGM locus exhibited a pattern of change within populations that was difficult to explain under neutral evolution). Overall the results generally provide support for the neutral evolution of molecular markers.     

Mammalian nonsynonymous sites are not overdispersed: comparative genomic analysis of index of dispersion of mammalian proteins

It is often stated that patterns of nonsynonymous rate variation among mammalian lineages are more irregular than expected or overdispersed under the neutral model, whereas synonymous sites conform to the neutral model. Here we reexamined genome-wide patterns of the variance to mean ratio, or index of dispersion (R), of substitutions in proteins from human, mouse, and dog. Contrary to the prevailing notion, we found that the mean index of dispersion for nonsynonymous sites of mammalian proteins is not significantly different from 1. We propose that earlier analyses were biased because the data included disproportionately more protein hormones, which tend to be more dispersed than genes in other functional categories. Synonymous sites exhibit greater degree of dispersion than nonsynonymous sites, although similar to earlier estimates and potentially due to errors associated with correction for multiple hits. Overall, our analysis identifies strong genome-wide generation-time effect and natural selection as important determinants of among-lineage variation of protein evolutionary rates. Furthermore, patterns of lineage-specific selective constraint are consistent with the nearly neutral model of molecular evolution.     

The neutral theory is dead. The current significance and standing of neutral and nearly neutral theories

Comparative studies of DNA sequences provide opportunities for testing the neutral and the selection theories of molecular evolution. In particular, the separate estimation of the numbers of synonymous and nonsynonymous substitutions is a powerful tool for detecting selection of the latter. The difference in the patterns of these two types of substitutions of mammalian genes turned out to be in accord with the slightly deleterious or nearly neutral mutation theory for nonsynonymous changes. Interaction systems at the amino acid level were suggested to be responsible for such nearly neutral, or very weak, selection. Synonymous substitutions are not strictly neutral, but because of their minute effect, random drift predominates such that the rate of substitution is only slightly less than the completely neutral prediction. It was concluded that the strictly neutral theory has not held up as well as the nearly neutral theory, yet remains invaluable as a null hypothesis for detecting selection. On the other hand, the main difference between the nearly neutral and the traditional selection theories is that the former predicts rapid evolution in small populations, whereas the latter predicts rapid evolution in large populations.     

Mutational collapse of fitness in marginal habitats and the evolution of ecological specialisation

In spatially heterogeneous environments, natural selection for maintenance of adaptation to habitats that contribute little to the population's reproduction is weak. In this paper we model a mechanism that can result in loss of fitness in such marginal habitats, and thus lead to specialisation on the main habitat. It involves accumulation of mutations that are deleterious in the marginal habitat but neutral or nearly so in the main habitat (mutations deleterious in the main habitat and neutral in the marginal habitat have a negligible influence). If the contribution of the marginal habitat to total reproduction in the absence of the mutations is less than a threshold value, selection is too weak to counter accumulation of such mutations. A positive feedback then results in loss of fitness in the marginal habitat. This mechanism does not require antagonistic pleiotropy in adaptation to different habitats, although antagonistic pleiotropy facilitates the mutational collapse of fitness in the marginal habitat. We suggest that deleterious mutations with habitat-specific expression may play a role in the evolution of ecological specialisation and promote evolutionary conservatism of ecological niches.     

The Rate of Compensatory Evolution

A two-locus model is presented to analyze the evolution of compensatory mutations occurring in stems of RNA secondary structures. Single mutations are assumed to be deleterious but harmless (neutral) in appropriate combinations. In proceeding under mutation pressure, natural selection and genetic drift from one fitness peak to another one, a population must therefore pass through a valley of intermediate deleterious states of individual fitness. The expected time for this transition is calculated using diffusion theory. The rate of compensatory evolution, k(c), is then defined as the inverse of the expected transition time. When selection against deleterious single mutations is strong, k(c) depends on the recombination fraction r between the two loci. Recombination generally reduces the rate of compensatory evolution because it breaks up favorable combinations of double mutants. For complete linkage, k(c) is given by the rate at which favorable combinations of double mutants are produced by compensatory mutation. For r>0, k(c) decreases exponentially with r. In contrast, k(c) becomes independent of r for weak selection. We discuss the dynamics of evolutionary substitutions of compensatory mutants in relation to WRIGHT's shifting balance theory of evolution and use our results to analyze the substitution process in helices of mRNA secondary structures.     

The neutral theory of molecular evolution and the world view of the neutralists

The main tenet of the neutral theory is that the great majority of evolutionary changes at the molecular level are caused not by Darwinian selection but by random fixation of selectively neutral (or very nearly neutral) alleles through random sampling drift under continued mutation pressure. The theory also asserts that the majority of protein and DNA polymorphisms are selectively neutral, and that they are maintained in the species by mutational input balanced by random extinction rather than by "balancing selection." The neutral theory is based on simple assumptions. This enabled us to develop mathematical theories (using the diffusion equation method) that can treat these phenomena in quantitative terms and that permit theory to be tested against actual observations. Although the neutral theory has been severely criticized by the neo-Darwinian establishment, supporting evidence has accumulated over the last 20 years. In particular, the recent burst of DNA sequence data helped to strengthen the theory a great deal. I believe that the neutral theory triggered reexamination of the traditional "synthetic theory of evolution." In this paper, I review the present status of the neutral theory, including discussions of such topics as "molecular evolutionary clock," very high evolutionary rates observed in RNA viruses, a deviant coding system found in Mycoplasm together with the concept of mutation-driven neutral evolution, and the origin of life. I also present a worldview based on the conception of what I call "survival of the luckiest."     

Molecular evolution, mutation size and gene pleiotropy: a geometric reexamination

The influence of phenotypic effects of genetic mutations on molecular evolution is not well understood. Neutral and nearly neutral theories of molecular evolution predict a negative relationship between the evolutionary rate of proteins and their functional importance; nevertheless empirical studies seeking relationships between evolutionary rate and the phenotypic role of proteins have not produced conclusive results. In particular, previous studies have not found the expected negative correlation between evolutionary rate and gene pleiotropy. Here, we studied the effect of gene pleiotropy and the phenotypic size of mutations on the evolutionary rate of genes in a geometrical model, in which gene pleiotropy was characterized by n molecular phenotypes that affect organismal fitness. For a nearly neutral process, we found a negative relationship between evolutionary rate and mutation size but pleiotropy did not affect the evolutionary rate. Further, for a selection model, where most of the substitutions were fixed by natural selection in a randomly fluctuating environment, we also found a negative relationship between evolutionary rate and mutation size, but interestingly, gene pleiotropy increased the evolutionary rate as √n. These findings may explain part of the disagreement between empirical data and traditional expectations.     

Lineage-specific variation in slow- and fast-X evolution in primates

Theories predict that the evolutionary rates of X-linked regions can differ from those of autosomal regions. The male-biased mutation theory predicts a slower rate of neutral substitution on the X chromosome (slow-X evolution), as the X spends less time in male germlines, where more mutations originate per generation than in female germlines. The fast-X theory, however, predicts a faster rate of adaptive substitution on the X chromosome when newly arising beneficial mutations are, on average, partially recessive (fast-X evolution), as the X enjoys a greater efficacy of positive selection. The slow- and fast-X processes are expected to interact as the degree of male-biased mutation can in turn influence the relative rate of adaptive evolution on the X. Here, we investigate lineage-specific variation in, and the interaction of, slow- and fast-X processes using genomic data from four primates. We find consistent evidence for slow-X evolution in all lineages. In contrast, evidence for fast-X evolution exists in only a subset of lineages. In particular, the marmoset lineage, which shows the strongest evidence of fast-X, exhibits the lowest male mutation bias. We discuss the possible interaction between slow- and fast-X evolution and other factors that influence the degrees of slow- and fast-X evolution.     

Spatial covariation of mutation and nonsynonymous substitution rates in vertebrate mitochondrial genomes

Mitochondrial genomes encode fundamental subunits of the basic energy producing machinery of eukaryotic cells that are under strong functional constraint. Paradoxically, these genes evolve rapidly in general, and there is substantial variation in evolutionary rates among genes within genomes. In order to investigate spatial variation in selection intensity, we conducted tests of neutrality using ratios of synonymous to nonsynonymous substitutions (dN/dS = omega) on numerous protein gene segments from fishes and mammals. Values of omega were very low for nearly all genomic regions. However, values of both omega and dN varied in a clinal pattern with increasing distance from the light-strand origin of replication. Spatial heterogeneity of nonsynonymous substitution rates exhibits a significantly positive correlation with variation in mutation rates that are related to the mode of mitochondrial DNA replication. The finding that nonsynonymous substitution rates are proportional to mutation rates is expected if a majority of substitutions are selectively neutral or slightly deleterious. Spatial patterns of among-gene variation in nonsynonymous rates were highly similar between fishes and mammals, suggesting that forces governing mitochondrial gene evolution have remained relatively constant over 450 Myr of vertebrate evolution. Conservation of substitution patterns despite major shifts in thermal habit and metabolic demands among taxa implicates a conserved replication mechanism controlling relative mutation rates as a major determinant of mitochondrial protein evolution.     

Local adaptation along smooth ecological gradients causes phylogeographic breaks and phenotypic clustering

Coalescent theory has provided a basis for evolutionary biologists to build sophisticated methods for inferring population history from variation in genetic markers, but these methods leave out a major conceptual cornerstone of modern evolutionary theory: natural selection. I provide the first quantitative analysis of the effects of selection on genealogical patterns in a continuously distributed population in which the selective optimum for a trait linked to the marker varies gradually and continuously across the landscape. Simulations show that relatively weak selection for local adaptation can lead to strong phylogeographic structure, in which highly divergent genealogical groups (i.e., clades) are geographically localized and differentially adapted, and dramatically increased standing variation (e.g., coalescence time) compared to neutral expectations. This pattern becomes more likely with increasing population size and with decreasing dispersal distances, mutation rates, and mutation sizes. Under some conditions, the system alternates between a nearly neutral behavior and a behavior in which highly divergent clades are locally adapted. Natural selection on markers commonly used in phylogeographic studies (such as mitochondrial DNA) presents a major challenge to the inference of biogeographic history but also provides exciting opportunities to study how selection affects both between- and within-species biodiversity.     

Within- and between-species DNA sequence variation and the 'footprint' of natural selection

Extensive DNA data emerging from genome-sequencing projects have revitalized interest in the mechanisms of molecular evolution. Although the contribution of natural selection at the molecular level has been debated for over 30 years, the relevant data and appropriate statistical methods to address this issue have only begun to emerge. This paper will first present the predominant models of neutral, nearly neutral, and adaptive molecular evolution. Then, a method to identify the role of natural selection in molecular evolution by comparing within- and between-species DNA sequence variation will be presented. Computer simulations show that such methods are powerful for detecting even very weak selection. Examination of DNA variation data within and between Drosophila species suggests that 'silent' sites evolve under a balance between weak selection and genetic drift. Simulated data also show that sequence comparisons are a powerful method to detect adaptive protein evolution, even when selection is weak or affects a small fraction of nucleotide sites. In the Drosophila data examined, positive selection appears to be a predominant force in protein evolution.     

Is mitochondrial DNA a strictly neutral marker?

Variation and change in mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is often assumed to conform to a constant mutation rate equilibrium neutral model of molecular evolution. Recent evidence, however, indicates that the assumptions underlying this model are frequently violated. The mitochondria) genome may be subject to the same suite of forces known to be acting in the nuclear genome, including hitchhiking and selection, as well as forces that do not affect nuclear variation. Wherever possible, evolutionary studies involving mtDNA should incorporate statistical tests to investigate the forces shaping sequence variation and evolution.     

Evidence for widespread positive and purifying selection across the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) genome

The nearly neutral theory of molecular evolution predicts that the efficacy of both positive and purifying selection is a function of the long-term effective population size (N(e)) of a species. Under this theory, the efficacy of natural selection should increase with N(e). Here, we tested this simple prediction by surveying ~1.5 to 1.8 Mb of protein coding sequence in the two subspecies of the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus algirus and O. c. cuniculus), a mammal species characterized by high levels of nucleotide diversity and N(e) estimates for each subspecies on the order of 1 × 10(6). When the segregation of slightly deleterious mutations and demographic effects were taken into account, we inferred that >60% of amino acid substitutions on the autosomes were driven to fixation by positive selection. Moreover, we inferred that a small fraction of new amino acid mutations (<4%) are effectively neutral (defined as 0 < N(e)s < 1) and that this fraction was negatively correlated with a gene's expression level. Consistent with models of recurrent adaptive evolution, we detected a negative correlation between levels of synonymous site polymorphism and the rate of protein evolution, although the correlation was weak and nonsignificant. No systematic X chromosome-autosome difference was found in the efficacy of selection. For example, the proportion of adaptive substitutions was significantly higher on the X chromosome compared with the autosomes in O. c. algirus but not in O. c. cuniculus. Our findings support widespread positive and purifying selection in rabbits and add to a growing list of examples suggesting that differences in N(e) among taxa play a substantial role in determining rates and patterns of protein evolution.