Reconstruction of the historical range alters niche estimates in an endangered rodent

Defining historical baselines is critical for species conservation. Under the niche reduction hypothesis, species in decline may be restricted disproportionately from parts of their environmental niche. This bias likely has important implications for modeling species’ distributions if only contemporary occurrences (i.e. post‐range reduction) are used, because suitable habitat will be classified as unsuitable. Unfortunately, robust historical occurrence data is rarely available for sensitive species. In this study, we documented historical locations of the endangered, keystone giant kangaroo rat Dipodomys ingens by examining aerial imagery for burrow mounds. These burrow mounds are readily identifiable and distinguishable from other soil disturbances. We found giant kangaroo rat burrows well outside the currently accepted estimate of their historical distribution. Following the niche reduction hypothesis, we found that giant kangaroo rats have been extirpated from the flattest, hottest, driest parts of their range due to agricultural conversion. This reduction in their realized niche led to significant changes between historical and contemporary models of their distribution. We found that giant kangaroo rats may have occupied up to 56% more habitat historically than currently believed. Our results provide new guidance for managers working on restoration and habitat protection for this ecosystem engineer. This study highlights the critical importance of modeling historical distributions using the entire environmental niche once occupied by species of conservation need.     

老爷岭南部狍冬季移动、卧息生境选择及其适宜性评价

在动物生境研究中,移动生境和卧息生境是生境研究的焦点。开展移动生境和卧息生境选择,并在此基础上进行生境评价,有利于深入了解动物对移动和卧息生境条件的需求,制定科学合理的栖息地保护计划。以东北虎（Panthera tigris altaica）的主要猎物物种之一-狍（Capreolus pygargus）为研究对象,于2017-2019年冬季积雪覆盖期在老爷岭南部通过随机布设28个大样方和84条用于足迹链跟踪的样线收集狍的移动点和卧息点信息,再结合近年来收集的东北虎出现点,利用广义可加模型（GAM）和最大熵模型（MaxEnt）进行狍移动、卧息生境选择及评价研究。移动生境选择研究表明,狍在移动的过程中偏好选择坡度小、距农田距离>500 m、远离道路、居民点和低海拔或较高海拔的区域;移动生境评价分析表明,移动适宜和次适宜生境面积之和为1318.16 km²,占研究区域面积的51.28%,当加入虎活动点影响因子后,狍移动适宜和次适宜生境面积之和为901.52 km²,适宜和次适宜生境面积之和减少了31.61%。狍卧息生境选择研究表明,水源、农田、道路和雪深是影响狍卧息的关键因素,其中雪深对狍卧息生境选择的贡献率达到70.13%;卧息生境评价表明,卧息适宜和次适宜生境面积之和为1243.77 km²,占研究区域面积的48.39%,当加入虎出现点因子后,适宜生境和次适宜生境面积之和减少了61.00%,仅为485.02 km²。研究认为,虎的出现对狍移动和卧息生境选择均产生影响,虎的活动及捕食行为可能会减少狍的活动范围和频次,狍远离虎活动区域卧息休息,压缩了狍适宜卧息的空间。     

Prey and tigers on the forgotten trail: high prey occupancy and tiger habitat use reveal the importance of the understudied Churia habitat of Nepal

Tigers are globally threatened and their conservation relies on intact habitat that supports key large prey. The Churia habitat is relatively unknown even though it occupies a significant portion of the forested landscape of the Terai Arc, which stretches over 1000 km in a narrow band across Nepal and India, parallel to the Himalayas. To address this lack of detailed information relevant to tiger conservation, we used sign surveys to estimate occupancy probability for 5 focal prey species of tigers (gaur, sambar, chital, wild pig, and barking deer), and assess tiger habitat use within 537 km² of the understudied Churia habitat in Chitwan National Park (CNP), Nepal. Multi-season occupancy models allowed us to make seasonal (winter vs. summer) inferences regarding changes in occupancy or habitat use based on covariates influencing occupancy and detection. We found that sambar had the largest spatial distribution occupying 431–437 km², while chital had the smallest at 100–158 km² across both seasons. The gaur population showed the most seasonal variation occupying from 413 to 318 km², suggesting their migration out of the Churia in summer and moving in during winter. Wild pigs showed the opposite trend occupying from 444 to 383 km²; suggesting moving into Churia in summer and out in winter. Barking deer were widespread in both seasons (329–349 km²). Tiger habitat use (\({{\hat{\varPsi } }}({\text{SE}})\)) was higher in winter 0.63 (0.11) than in summer 0.54 (0.21), but confidence intervals overlapped and area used was similar across seasons, 337 km² (winter) to 291 km² (summer). Available habitat, distribution of water sources, and human disturbance were the most common variables influencing spatial distribution of prey and habitat use of tigers at different spatial scales. Overall, we found high prey occupancy and tiger habitat use, suggesting the Churia is valuable habitat for ungulates and tigers. Given that this habitat accounts for 639 km² within CNP and 7642 km² across the entire Terai Arc, the Churia should no longer be neglected in global tiger conservation planning.     

Fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus distribution and habitat suitability in Nepal

The fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus is a wetland specialist species endemic to South and Southeast Asia. Nepal represents the northern limit of its biogeographic range, but comprehensive information on fishing cat distribution in Nepal is lacking. To assess their distribution, we compiled fishing cat occurrence records (n = 154) from Nepal, available in published literature and unpublished data (2009–2020). Bioclimatic and environmental variables associated with their occurrence were used to predict the fishing cat habitat suitability using MaxEnt modeling. Fishing cat habitat suitability was associated with elevation (152–302 m), precipitation of the warmest quarter, i.e., April–June (668–1014 mm), precipitation of the driest month (4–7 mm), and land cover (forest/grassland and wetland). The model predicted an area of 4.4% (6679 km²) of Nepal as potential habitat for the fishing cat. About two‐thirds of the predicted potentially suitable habitat lies outside protected areas; however, a large part of the highly suitable habitat (67%) falls within protected areas. The predicted habitat suitability map serves as a reference for future investigation into fishing cat distribution as well as formulating and implementing effective conservation programs in Nepal. Fishing cat conservation initiatives should include habitats inside and outside the protected areas to ensure long‐term survival. We recommend conservation of wetland sites, surveys of fishing cats in the identified potential habitats, and studying their genetic connectivity and population status.     

Integrating aspects of ecology and predictive modelling: implications for the conservation of the leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis) in the Eastern Himalaya

An understanding of species ecology is vital for effective conservation, particularly if the species forms an important constituent of the lesser mammal guild and regulates small mammal and bird populations. As the ecological role of the leopard cat (Prionailurus bengalensis) in the intricate eastern Himalayan habitats is not known, we assessed the site occupancy, detection probability and activity pattern of leopard cats in Khangchendzonga Biosphere Reserve, India, based on sign surveys and camera trapping. The estimated site occupancy was 0.352?±?0.061 and detection probability was 0.143?±?0.0484. Occupancy modelling indicated low elevation, high rodent abundance and tree cover as best predictors for the occupancy of leopard cat. Diet based on analysed scats revealed murids as the most dominant prey (89.2 %). Information based on photographic captures indicated that the leopard cat exhibited a nocturnal activity pattern (peak activity between 0200–0300 hours), which coincided with its principal prey (revealed through diet analysis), but mainly contradicted with other sympatric competitors, hence indicating a temporal partitioning of resources among them. Ecological niche factor analysis indicated that the leopard cat exhibits high global marginality (1.32) and low global tolerance (0.275). The habitat suitability map for leopard cats showed majority of the habitat as unsuitable (1,959.44 km²) and predicted only 164.54 km² areas of lower temperate forests as moderate to highly suitable. As highly suitable habitats of the leopard cat are in close proximity to villages, conflict issues are a major threat and therefore need to be addressed in conservation program for this felid.     

黑龙江省老爷岭南部穆棱林区马鹿种群分布数量及生境适宜性评价

开展野生动物种群分布数量和生境适宜性评价研究是制定物种科学保护决策的基础和关键。以东北马鹿(Cervus canadensis xanthopygus)为研究对象,于2015—2020年在黑龙江省老爷岭南部穆棱林区,采用大样方调查方法收集马鹿在雪地留下的足迹信息分析马鹿种群数量;通过相机监测、足迹链跟踪和大样方调查3种方法综合收集马鹿活动点信息,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)建模分析马鹿生境适宜性。马鹿种群分布数量研究结果表明,穆棱林区马鹿种群密度为(0.0645±0.009)只/km~2,种群数量为47—61只,主要分布在研究地区南部的和平、龙爪沟和共和林场。生境分析结果表明：人为干扰因子中,居民区对MaxEnt模型的贡献率为44%,马鹿主要在距居民区距离约5 km和10—15 km的区域活动,在偏僻的林间小道和乡村道路马鹿生境适宜性较高,其对模型贡献率分别为16.8%和10.2%;植被因子中,在距常绿针叶林和针阔混交林距离4 km范围内,随距离增加马鹿生境适宜性逐渐降低。生境适宜性分析结果表明,研究地区马鹿适宜生境和次适宜生境面积为87.09 km~2,仅占研究区域的10.39%,主要...     

基于随机森林模型的国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种优先保护区的识别

准确可靠地识别国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种的优先保护区,是生物多样性保护的热点问题之一。采用随机森林(random forests)模型,基于12个环境变量,对中国263种国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物建模,并预测各个物种在背景点的适生概率,迭加计算得到国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种的生境适宜性指数。此外,基于对生境适宜性指数的空间自相关分析,识别和确定国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种优先保护区,并对优先保护区目前的被保护情况进行分析。结果表明,国家重点保护陆生脊椎动物物种的优先保护区的面积为103.16万km~2,约占我国国土面积的10.90%。优先保护区主要分布在我国的西部地区,包括西南地区的秦岭-大巴山山区、云南省与印度及缅甸的交界地区、武陵山山区、喜马拉雅山-横断山脉山区、阿尔泰山脉山区、天山山脉山区、昆仑山山脉山区;东北的大、小兴安岭、东北-华南沿海地区及长江中下游地区有少量分布。优先保护区中被保护的面积为50.40万km~2,占优先保护区总面积的48.86%,保护率偏低,未被充分保护。利用系统聚类分析,将未被保护的优先保护区划分成3种优先保护顺序,以期为相关部门的决策提供科学依据,更好地保护生物多样性。     

Distribution of medium- to large-sized African mammals based on habitat suitability models

The knowledge of the areas inhabited by a species within its distribution range and the connections among patches are critical pieces of information for successful conservation actions. The internal structure of the extent of occurrence (EO) of a species is almost always unknown, even for “well-known” flagship species. We developed a methodology to infer the area of occupancy (AO) within the EO of a species using the limited available data. We present here the results of a three years project funded by European Union to develop high-resolution models of habitat suitability for 281 medium- to large-sized African mammals across the whole continent. The existing literature was reviewed and all data on the geographic distribution and environmental preferences of the selected species were collected. For each species, these data were then expressed in terms of key variables available as GIS layers at a resolution of 1 km² over the entire African continent. The AO of each species was obtained merging the information on the ecological needs of the species and the values of ecological variables over the region identified as EO. The habitat suitability models were evaluated through direct field work in four countries (Morocco, Cameroon, Uganda, Botswana) chosen as representatives of the environmental and species diversity of Africa. More than 81% of models had positive true skill statistics (TSS) values, indicating models performing better than random. Rigorous modeling procedures supported by ad-hoc field evaluation allowed the production of high-resolution habitat suitability models useful for conservation applications.     

Using Landscape and Bioclimatic Features to Predict the Distribution of Lions,Leopards and Spotted Hyaenas in Tanzania's Ruaha Landscape

Tanzania''s Ruaha landscape is an international priority area for large carnivores, supporting over 10% of the world''s lions and important populations of leopards and spotted hyaenas. However, lack of ecological data on large carnivore distribution and habitat use hinders the development of effective carnivore conservation strategies in this critical landscape. Therefore, the study aimed to (i) identify the most significant ecogeographical variables influencing the potential distribution of lions, leopards and spotted hyaenas across the Ruaha landscape; (ii) identify zones with highest suitability for harbouring those species; and (iii) use species distribution modelling algorithms (SDMs) to define important areas for conservation of large carnivores. Habitat suitability was calculated based on environmental features from georeferenced presence-only carnivore location data. Potential distribution of large carnivores appeared to be strongly influenced by water availability; highly suitable areas were situated close to rivers and experienced above average annual precipitation. Net primary productivity and tree cover also exerted some influence on habitat suitability. All three species showed relatively narrow niche breadth and low tolerance to changes in habitat characteristics. From 21,050 km² assessed, 8.1% (1,702 km²) emerged as highly suitable for all three large carnivores collectively. Of that area, 95.4% (1,624 km²) was located within 30 km of the Park-village border, raising concerns about human-carnivore conflict. This was of particular concern for spotted hyaenas, as they were located significantly closer to the Park boundary than lions and leopards. This study provides the first map of potential carnivore distribution across the globally important Ruaha landscape, and demonstrates that SDMs can be effective for understanding large carnivore habitat requirements in poorly sampled areas. This approach could have relevance for many other important wildlife areas that only have limited, haphazard presence-only data, but which urgently require strategic conservation planning.     

亚洲象生境长时序变化及其对人象冲突的影响——基于融合MaxEnt与HSI模型的生境适宜性评价方法

生境变化直接关系到物种种群维持与人类安全,揭示其长期变化规律及其对人类的影响,可为物种保护与生境恢复提供科学支撑。但因受物种活动点数据获取与位置精度的局限,鲜见濒危、危险物种的长时序生境变化研究。以人象冲突频发的西双版纳勐海—普洱澜沧地区亚洲象种群(勐海—澜沧象群)活动区为例,提出融合MaxEnt与HSI模型的亚洲象长时序生境适宜性评价方法,即基于荟萃分析筛选出的15个亚洲象生境评价因子,结合近期有限的物种活动点监测数据,利用MaxEnt得到生境评价因子的贡献率,再运用HSI模型计算生境适宜性指数;利用该方法制作出研究区1988—2020年逐年时序的亚洲象生境适宜性图,以分析亚洲象生境的时空变化,将其与亚洲象肇事数据结合,进而分析人象冲突与生境变化的关联。结果表明：(1)基于物种生境偏好不变的前提,融合MaxEnt模型与HSI模型的生境适宜性评价方法可应用于物种的长时序生境评价,且基于亚洲象活动点数据从动物对生境利用的生态学视角定量获取亚洲象对各生境评价因子的偏好程度,使生境评价结果具有良好的生态可解释性;(2)目前亚洲象适宜生境面积占研究区面积三分之一(4039.76 km^...     

How to deal with ground truthing affected by human‐induced habitat change?: Identifying high‐quality habitats for the Critically Endangered Red Siskin

Species distribution models (SDM) can be valuable for identifying key habitats for conservation management of threatened taxa, but anthropogenic habitat change can undermine SDM accuracy. We used data for the Red Siskin (Spinus cucullatus), a critically endangered bird and ground truthing to examine anthropogenic habitat change as a source of SDM inaccuracy. We aimed to estimate: (1) the Red Siskin's historic distribution in Venezuela; (2) the portion of this historic distribution lost to vegetation degradation; and (3) the location of key habitats or areas with both, a high probability of historic occurrence and a low probability of vegetation degradation. We ground‐truthed 191 locations and used expert opinion as well as landscape characteristics to classify species' habitat suitability as excellent, good, acceptable, or poor. We fit a Random Forest model (RF) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time series to evaluate the accuracy and precision of the expert categorization of habitat suitability. We estimated the probability of historic occurrence by fitting a MaxLike model using 88 presence records (1960–2013) and data on forest cover and aridity index. Of the entire study area, 23% (20,696 km²) had a historic probability of Red Siskin occurrence over 0.743. Furthermore, 85% of ground‐truthed locations had substantial reductions in mean EVI, resulting in key habitats totaling just 976 km², in small blocks in the western and central regions. Decline in Area of Occupancy over 15 years was between 40% and 95%, corresponding to an extinction risk category between Vulnerable and Critically Endangered. Relating key habitats with other landscape features revealed significant risks and opportunities for proposed conservation interventions, including the fact that ongoing vegetation degradation could limit the establishment of reintroduced populations in eastern areas, while the conservation of remaining key habitats on private lands could be improved with biodiversity‐friendly agri‐ and silviculture programs.     

Species Distribution Modelling predicts habitat suitability and reduction of suitable habitat under future climatic scenario for Sclerophrys perreti: A critically endangered Nigerian endemic toad

Sclerophrys perreti is a critically endangered Nigerian native frog currently imperilled by human activities. A better understanding of its potential distribution and habitat suitability will aid in conservation; however, such knowledge is limited for S. perreti. Herein, we used a species distribution model (SDM) approach with all known occurrence data (n = 22) from our field surveys and primary literature, and environmental variable predictors (19 bioclimatic variables, elevation and land cover) to elucidate habitat suitability and impact of climate change on this species. The SDM showed that temperature and precipitation were the predictors of habitat suitability for S. perreti with precipitation seasonality as the strongest predictor of habitat suitability. The following variable also had a significant effect on habitat suitability: temperature seasonality, temperature annual range, precipitation of driest month, mean temperature of wettest quarter and isothermality. The model predicted current suitable habitat for S. perreti covering an area of 1,115 km². However, this habitat is predicted to experience 60% reduction by 2050 owing to changes in temperature and precipitation. SDM also showed that suitable habitat exists in south-eastern range of the inselberg with predicted low impact of climate change compared to other ranges. Therefore, this study recommends improved conservation measures through collaborations and stakeholder's meeting with local farmers for the management and protection of S. perreti.     

Population status and distribution modelling of the critically endangered riverine rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis)

The riverine rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis) is one of the most endangered mammals in the world due to fragmentation of its habitat in the semi‐arid Karoo region of South Africa, to which it is endemic. It is an umbrella conservation species for the riparian shrubland associated with the seasonal drainage system of the Karoo, where its presence is an indicator of ecosystem health. In this study, we analysed historical survey data to derive an improved assessment of the current B. monticularis population status and distribution. Geospatial analysis was conducted using geographical information systems, and distribution modelling was performed using Maxent. Extent of occurrence for the species is 54,227 km², and area of occupancy is 2943 km². Estimates of 157–207 mature individuals confirm an alarmingly small species population size, and it appears that no subpopulation has >50 mature individuals. Our findings thus support the continued classification of this species as ‘critically endangered’ under IUCN Red List criteria. However, with most remaining habitat occurring outside of protected areas, and with habitat loss being exacerbated by climate change, a viable conservation plan remains elusive.     

Determinants of smooth-coated otter occupancy in a rapidly urbanizing coastal landscape in Southeast Asia

Urbanization often has negative impacts on wildlife, nevertheless many species can persist in heavily modified habitats. Understanding factors that promote species persistence in urbanizing landscapes is therefore important for maintaining biodiversity in changing landscapes and may inform more biodiversity-friendly development. We investigated effects of landscape-scale variables on habitat occupancy of Smooth-coated otter (Lutrogale perspicillata) in the Inner Gulf of Thailand. In this internationally important wetland complex, 86% of natural habitats have been altered and are now highly urbanized. We conducted track and sign surveys in 60, 25 km² grid cells encompassing 1,474 km². Within each cell, we quantified the landscape cover types including urban areas, natural habitat (predominately thin ribbons of mangrove along waterways), agriculture, aquaculture, and potential prey availability using a GIS and field surveys. We used occupancy models to identify habitat variables that affected probability of detection and occupancy. Estimated otter occupancy, based on the top model, was 0.33 ± 0.07 (95% CI 0.18–0.48) and detection probability was 0.50 ± 0.05 (95% CI 0.41–0.60). Otter occupancy was positively associated with the proportion of natural habitat and the cover of traditional aquaculture ponds, but negatively associated with agriculture and urban cover. The remaining natural patches appear to act as critical refuges for otter, allowing them to persist in an otherwise heavily transformed landscape. Because aquaculture ponds are likely important prey sources for otters, it may lead to conflict with aquaculture farmers. Further studies of feeding and movement patterns in cooperation with aquaculture farmers would be beneficial for developing detailed management plans for the species in this human dominated landscape.     

Kangaroo Rats Remodel Burrows in Response to Seasonal Changes in Environmental Conditions

Burrow architecture enhances important animal functions such as food storage, predator avoidance, and thermoregulation. Occupants may be able to maximize fitness by remodeling burrows in response to seasonal changes in climate and predation risk. My objective was to examine how banner‐tailed kangaroo rats (Dipodomys spectabilis) modify the number of burrow entrances in response to seasonal conditions. For 3 yr, I monitored fluctuations in number of burrow entrances in kangaroo rat mounds. Individual kangaroo rats continually remodeled mounds in response to seasonal conditions. Compared to summer, mounds in winter had approximately 50% fewer entrances and plugged entrances were common. Monthly differences in number of entrances were closely linked with seasonal changes in soil temperature and precipitation. Number of entrances decreased as soil temperature and precipitation declined. Changes in burrow entrances likely reflect seasonal differences in the relative importance of burrow functions. Fewer burrow entrances during winter would create a warmer microclimate by reducing convective heat loss in mounds, resulting in thermoregulatory savings for occupants. During the summer, thermoregulatory costs of kangaroo rats are low, but risk of seed cache spoilage and predation from snakes increases. Adding burrow entrances after large summer rainfall events would increase the evaporation rate within mounds, reducing spoilage of seed caches. More burrow entrances would also reduce predation risk in the summer by providing additional escape routes.     

Conservation prioritization through combined approach of umbrella species selection,occupancy estimation,habitat suitability and connectivity analysis of kingfisher: A study from an internationally important wetland complex (Ramsar site) in India

Assessment of occupancy status, as well as projection of suitable habitats and connectivity of wetland indicator species, and thereby identification of potential conservation umbrella and projection of conservation priority areas are often considered important for wetland conservation. Kingfishers are wetland indicators and suffer from habitat degradation due to world-wide destruction of wetlands. Therefore, they can be considered potential candidates for conservation intervention. The present knowledge about the spatial distribution of suitable areas and habitat connectivity of kingfishers at a landscape level is non-existent. We conducted extensive surveys and recorded four kingfisher species in East Kolkata Wetlands (EKW; Ramsar site No. 1208; ∼125 km²). The occupancy estimates were highest for White-throated kingfisher (Halcyon smyrnensis, WTK), followed by common kingfisher (Alcedo atthis, CK), stork-billed kingfisher (Pelargopsis capensis, SBK) and lowest for pied kingfisher (Ceryle rudis, PK). WTK has the highest amount of suitable areas followed by CK, PK and SBK. The spatial overlap of suitable habitats showed that SBK is the potential umbrella species and therefore provides conservation benefits to other kingfisher species and eventually to the EKW. In addition to water areas, emergent vegetation, crop lands and tree cover are other important habitats for kingfishers. The connectivity analyses revealed that suitable habitats were disjunct and are under various anthropogenic threats. Therefore, we need to protect suitable habitats and connectivity between them. Finally, we identified conservation priority areas. Conservation intervention on these high priority zones will not only be beneficial for kingfishers, but also for other avifauna having similar resource requirements as well as the wetland parse.     

Identifying the habitat suitability and built-in corridors for Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) movement in the northern highlands of Pakistan

Identifying habitat suitability and potential corridors are important tools for biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change. We modeled habitat suitability and simulated possible corridors for movement and gene flow among the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) population in the Northern Highlands of Pakistan (NHP). Results indicated that the areas of 13,923 km² and 21,931 km² suitable for the Asiatic black bear under current and future scenarios respectively. Under the future scenario, we found an area of 12,657 km² (57.21%) as increase in suitable habitat (ISH_f) and 4649 km² (33.39%) area as a decrease in current suitable habitat (DSH_c). Our model predicted that about >65% (9274 km²) of the current suitable habitat as a climate refugia which is projected from the center to southeast east and northwest of the NHP primarily in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK). The attitudinal range of refugia was projected from 688 m to 4483 m with >56% at the elevations between 2001 m to 3000 m. A very small portion of suitable habitats (current suitable habitat = 2.75%, future suitable habitat = 5.11%) were projected under the protected areas. Maps connecting suitable habitats identified different regions delineated as important for the dispersal of Asiatic black bears, which mainly distributed in the PAK and KPK. Our results help informs conservation strategies and management plans for mitigating the impacts of climate change on Asiatic black bears in the NHP.     

Predicting changes in the abundance of African wetland birds by incorporating abundance–occupancy relationships into habitat association models

Aim To map changes in the abundance of African wetland birds using remotely derived habitat data. We show that abundance–occupancy relationships can be coupled with habitat association models to map changes in abundance. As conservation resources are more easily allocated when spatial and temporal patterns of abundance are known, our method provides guidance for conservation planning. Location Papyrus, Cyperus papyrus, swamps in east central Africa. Methods Presence/absence surveys of six bird species in 93 wetlands were used to construct models predicting probability of occurrence from habitat characteristics. Densities were then determined from surveys in 23 additional wetlands and modelled as functions of occurrence probability. We then used satellite imagery to derive habitat characteristics remotely in two time periods (1984–87 and 2000–03) and used the modelled relationships between (1) habitat and occupancy and (2) occupancy and density, to infer changes in abundance in all c. 30,000 wetlands within the study area. Results Wetlands within the region declined by 8.6% between the two time periods, but by > 75% in regions of high human population density. Bird densities were also highest in these regions, which comprised wetlands subject to high levels of disturbance. The geographical coincidence of high densities and habitat loss and the existence of positive associations between bird density and occurrence meant that birds declined by much more than the average rate of their habitat. Main conclusions Targeting conservation efforts in areas with high drainage would protect a high proportion of the bird populations. Encouraging people to derive income from disturbance to which the birds are tolerant, rather than drainage, is likely to be an effective strategy. Because habitat characteristics are a key driver of abundance–occupancy relationships, we conclude that there is wide‐scale scope to couple abundance–occupancy relationships with remote habitat mapping to efficiently inform conservation planning.     

A combined approach of methods for determining the regional assessment of the disjunct plant Primula pedemontana in Spain

The aim of this study was to conduct a regional threat-status assessment for Primula pedemontana Thomas ex Gaudin in Spain. This is an Alpine plant with a single isolated Iberian population. A major field survey was made to monitor the species in Spain with a view to preventing its possible disappearance. For that purpose, a habitat study was carried out, regional population size and population structure were determined, and major threats and conservation actions were identified. Besides, habitat suitability maps were drawn up for the present and for 2025 and the percentage of potential habitat loss was calculated in order to estimate their possible evolution. The number of mature individuals, calculated as a trapezoidal fuzzy number, was [9179; 10820; 19002; 22342]. Extent of occurrence and area of occupancy calculated were 2.5 and 0.16 km², respectively. The regional IUCN category obtained for P. pedemontana was “Critically Endangered”. The percentage of potential habitat loss was estimated at 10.9% for 2025. The authors consider that this species is among the priority Spanish plants for conservation, and that it should be included in the “Spanish List of Wild Species under the Special Protection Scheme”.     

Habitat use of the endangered golden‐rumped sengi Rhynchocyon chrysopygus

The endangered golden‐rumped sengi are found only in Arabuko‐Sokoke Forest with 395.4 km² of forest habitat, and perhaps in a few isolated forest and thicket fragments of total area less than 30 km² all within central coastal Kenya. Understanding its habitat use is an important requirement to develop better conservation measures for the species and its remaining forest habitat. A more reliable method for monitoring its status is also needed. We used the Bayesian occupancy modelling with camera trap data and habitat mapping to characterise the species habitat use in the Arabuko‐Sokoke Forest. The species uses 328 km² (95% CI: 289–364 km²) of Arabuko‐Sokoke Forest habitat, and its site use increases with distance from forest edge, with the highest site use in the Cynometra thicket (0.93; 95% CI: 0.82–1). Its use of the mixed forest habitat has been significantly reduced following years of logging of Afzelia quanzensis. We recommend the use of modelled occupancy, interpreted as the proportion of area used by the species, to monitor the species status. Occupancy models account for detection probability, and heterogeneity in site use and detection can be incorporated. Estimated territory sizes can be combined to obtain abundance estimates.