全球气候变化对野生动物的影响

人类活动所引起的温室气体增加以及由此造成的全球气候变化和对全球生态环境的影响正越来越引起人们的关注,在全球气候变化对野生动物影响的研究中发现,随着全球气温变暖,野生动物的分布区整体上向北移,物修期提前,动物的繁殖及其种群大小,不同的种类做出不同的响应,有的受益于全球变暖,繁殖增加,成活率高,种群壮大,有的受制于这一变化,种群逐渐缩小甚至面临灭绝的威胁,总的来看,全球气候变暖使更多的野生动物无所适从,因此,加强对气候变化在不同层面上对野生动物影响机制的研究,调整野生动物保护措施,对野生动物及其生境的保护,维持生态系统多样性将显得十分重要。     

稳定有界的Logistic方程的最优捕获策略

考虑单种群非自治的Logistic方程的开采问题．在R^ 中都存在均值的意义下,作为周期和概周期函数的推广,首先给出稳定有界函数的概念．然后定义一个新的最终最优收获策略用于处理我们的问题．选择单位时间的最大持久收益的极限均值作为管理目标。同时得到了最佳的种群水平．作为应用,我们以概周期系数的Logistic方程为例,表明我们的结果不仅推广了经典的Clark关于自治的Logistic方程的收获问题,而且推广了范猛和王克的关于周期的Logistic方程的收获问题的结果．     

离散的互惠生态系统的最优捕获策略

本文利用离散的两种群互惠模型给出了在捕获能力不同状况下的不同最优捕获策略,指出了理论上和实践上可获得的最大经济效益。     

气候变化对大兴安岭北部蒙古栎种群动态的影响

通过对气象因子和样地数据分析表明,20余年来大兴安岭北部气候趋于变暖,低海拔地带蒙古栎呈现明显的进展趋势,演替趋于以蒙古栎为优势种的阔叶林,海拔较高地带蒙古栎更新不良,演替趋于兴安落叶松和几种阔叶树的混生林,蒙古栎种群发展与干暖化具有一致性,在各类气象因子中,5月均低温是影响蒙古栎更新的决定性因子,由海拔升高引起的区域干燥度降低也是影响更新的重要因子,这也说明蒙古栎对冷湿生境的不适应性。     

木香薷精油提取最佳采收期的研究

采用测定生物量与精油提取相结合的方法来研究确定木香薷的最佳采收期。结果表明:霍山地区木香薷的最佳采收期在8月中旬。木香薷生物量的增长在前期主要表现为当年生小枝数的增加,而后期表现为当年生小枝重量的增加。从5月12日到8月17日,每100 g干重的当年生枝产精油量逐渐增加,而8月17日之后精油产量逐渐下降,以8月7日为最高达到1.62 g,得率为1.62%。     

Weather conditions during hunting season affect the number of harvested roe deer (Capreolus capreolus)

Due to human‐induced climate and landscape changes, distribution and abundance of many ungulate species have increased worldwide. Especially in areas where natural predators are absent, hunting is the essential management tool for regulating ungulate populations. Therefore, understanding the factors associated with harvest rates is the first step toward an adaptive management approach. Weather influences hunter and ungulate behavior and thus presumably harvest, but how and which meteorological parameters are linked to harvest numbers have rarely been evaluated. We used nearly 65,000 “sit and wait” and driven hunt harvests of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) in Bavaria, Germany, and weather data from 2008 to 2017 to test for factors affecting roe deer harvests (i.e., temperature, rain hours, wind speed, sunshine duration, snow depth, workdays vs. weekends, month) using zero‐inflated negative binomial mixed‐effect models. Our results reveal that, besides workdays, high temperatures and prolonged rain resulted in fewer harvested animals, whereas sunshine duration in summer and snow height in snow‐rich areas partially favored harvests during sitting hunts in summer and winter, respectively. The influence of wind speed varied over the course of the year. In summer and autumn, wind speed commonly had a negative effect, positively affecting harvests in winter in some regions. Daily harvest numbers decreased during the summer and autumn hunting periods (May till mid‐October), while they increased during the winter period (mid‐October till mid‐January). Interestingly, harvest success during driven hunts, which are planned well in advance and therefore take place largely independent of weather conditions, was similarly affected by the weather. This result suggests that the inferred weather influence is not only due to the hunters'' decisions but also due to deer behavior. Since many ungulate populations may further benefit from climate change, building an understanding of the relationship between hunting success and weather will aid adaptive ungulate management.     

Understanding and Managing the Risks to Health and Environment from Global Atmospheric Change: A Synthesis

The global atmosphere is changing. Anthropogenic activities are increasing the concentrations of greenhouse gases and releasing synthetic compounds that deplete stratospheric ozone and increase UV-B radiation. Changes of temperature in the Northern Hemisphere during the past century strongly suggest that we are now in a period of rapid global warming relative to the past millennium. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are absorbing outgoing infrared radiation in the lower atmosphere, warming the troposphere and cooling the lower stratosphere. Research is beginning to indicate that losses of stratospheric ozone and increases of greenhouse gases are interdependent. Increased greenhouse gases have been implicated in the observed strengthening of stratospheric wind vortices around both poles, in turn setting the stage for further depletion of ozone and increases in UV-B radiation. Although the uncertainties are still large enough to make it difficult to assess health and ecological risks, decisions must be made. Research on indicators of risks to human health and the environment can help reduce the uncertainties in these risks and shorten the time between recognizing the risks of atmospheric change and taking concrete mitigative and adaptive actions.     

Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.     

Pastoralism Under Pressure: Tracking System Change in Southern Ethiopia

While economic development has proven elusive in African pastoral systems, change is pervasive. The majority of the Kajiado Maasai, for example, have endured marked declines in per capita livestock holdings and other aspects of human welfare over the past 50 years. We surveyed 317 Borana households to see if similar patterns occurred in southern Ethiopia, and our predictions were largely confirmed. Once viewed as the epitome of sustainable pastoralism, the Borana system now confronts numerous challenges. Decline in per capita cattle holdings has spurred household-level diversification to include maize cultivation and camel husbandry in some areas. Resource pressure has encouraged local annexation of some formerly common access grazing areas. Economic links between pastoral households and local towns still appear rare, however. Our results suggest that patterns of internally induced socioeconomic change due to population pressure in such semiarid systems are broadly predictable, and that development intervention priorities should reflect system dynamics and address emerging issues. A focus on improving risk management by facilitating household economic diversification and restoring some aspects of opportunistic resource use may be the most appropriate development options among the Ethiopian Boran at this time.     

Assessment and management of old-growth forests in south eastern Australia

Abstract

Old-growth forests in south eastern Australia are important for biodiversity conservation, recreation, carbon storage, social values and, to a declining extent, for timber production. Developing a comprehensive definition of old-growth forest that can apply across all Australian vegetation types has been challenging. Old growth can be viewed from ecological and social perspectives. For policy and management purposes old growth has been defined as a growth stage in forest development, incorporating ecological maturity and lack of evidence of past disturbance. Classification and assessment of old growth has largely been restricted to those areas covered by regional forest agreements (RFAs) between different states and the Federal Government. Old growth can be impacted by wildfire, timber harvesting, insect pests, diseases and other disturbances. Climate change will also present challenges for the future management of old-growth forests. There is increasing scientific understanding of the relationships between species, forest growth stage and old-growth forest attributes. To meet biodiversity conservation objectives, the management focus is shifting from assessing and protecting old-growth forests, to providing for forests across the landscape with old-growth attributes. This approach may be at odds with other conceptions of old growth based on notions of undisturbed systems free of human influence.     

Optimal intervention for an epidemic model under parameter uncertainty

We will be concerned with optimal intervention policies for a continuous-time stochastic SIR (susceptible-->infective-->removed) model for the spread of infection through a closed population. In previous work on such optimal policies, it is common to assume that model parameter values are known; in reality, uncertainty over parameter values exists. We shall consider the effect upon the optimal policy of changes in parameter estimates, and of explicitly taking into account parameter uncertainty via a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework. We consider policies allowing for (i) the isolation of any number of infectives, or (ii) the immunisation of all susceptibles (total immunisation). Numerical examples are given to illustrate our results.     

Managing biodiversity data within the context of climate change: towards best practice

Decision makers, planners and researchers have identified the need to assess the effects of climate change on biodiversity, resulting in extensive research across a number of fields. The availability of comprehensive, accurate and relevant data is central to undertaking effective research. However, the quality and availability of biodiversity information is substantially determined by current and historical data collection strategies. If researchers and planners are to make effective use of existing and future investments in biodiversity information, a strategic approach should be taken in identifying and implementing best practice information management. This paper discusses ways to improve institutional support for information management and increase the availability of quality information. The paper reviews the most common areas of climate change and biodiversity research, and identifies best practices in information management, focusing on data used within biodiversity and climate change analyses.     

Use of an individual-based model to forecast the effect of climate change on the dynamics, abundance and geographical range of the pest slug Deroceras reticulatum in the UK

Slugs are serious agricultural pests and their activity is strongly driven by ambient temperature and soil moisture. The strength of this relationship has been shown through the development of a deterministic model, based upon temperature and soil moisture conditions alone, which accurately describes the population dynamics and abundance of Deroceras reticulatum . Because of this strong climatic dependence, slug abundance and dynamics are likely to be affected by climate change. We used a validated individual-based model (IbM) of D. reticulatum , to assess the effects of climate change on the abundance of this species in the UK. Climatic scenarios were based on the UKCIP02 predictions and constructed using the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The IbM of slugs predicted population dynamics at three time slices (2020s, 2050s and 2080s), and two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. The maximum generation number, the number of population peaks, the number of slug-days in each season, the percentage of years when the population passes over a threshold for damage and the percentage of years in which populations go extinct were investigated. Currently, the south-west of the UK has the best conditions for D. reticulatum to thrive, with the north-east of Scotland having the most adverse. By 2080 under both low- and high-emissions scenarios, the north and west of Scotland will have the most favourable conditions for the survival of this species and the east of the UK and Scotland will have the harshest. By 2080 the climate in the north-west of Scotland will become more like the current climate in south-east England, which explains the shift in the pattern of abundance. The north-west of Scotland will have increased slug damage and south-west England and west-Wales will have decreased slug damage with some changes becoming evident by 2020.     

Optimal avian migration: A dynamic model of fuel stores and site use

Birds migrating between widely separated wintering and breeding grounds may choose among a number of potential stopover sites by using different itineraries. Our aim is to predict the optimal migration schedule in terms of (1) rates of fuel deposition, (2) departure fuel loads and (3) stopover site use, when only a handful of such sites are available. We assume that reproductive success depends on the date and fuel load at arrival on the breeding grounds. On migration, the birds face a trade-off between gaining fuel and avoiding predation. To allow the optimal decision at any given moment to depend on the fuel load and the location of the bird, as well as on unpredictability in conditions, we employed stochastic dynamic programming. This technique assumes that the birds know the probability distribution of conditions in all sites, but not the particular realization they will encounter. We examined the consequences of varying aspects of the model, like (1) the shape of the relationship between arrival date and fitness, (2) the presence of stochasticity in fuel deposition rates and wind conditions, and (3) the nature of predation (i.e. whether predation risk depends on the fuel load of the birds or their feeding intensity). Optimal fuel deposition rates are predicted to be constant if there are either only predation risks of maintaining stores or only risks of acquiring fuel stores. If only fuel acquisition is risky, fuel deposition rates can be below maximum, especially if there also is an intermediate best arrival time at the breeding ground. The fuel deposition rate at a site then depends not just on the site's quality but on the qualities of all visited sites. In contrast, rates of fuel deposition are not constant if both the acquisition and the maintenance of fuel stores carry risk. Optimal departure fuel loads are just enough to reach the next site if the environment is deterministic and are simply set by the energetic cost of covering the distance. As with time-minimizing models, more fuel than necessary to reach a site is only deposited under very restricted circumstances. Such overloads are more likely to be deposited if either fuel gains or expenditure are stochastic. The size of overloads is then determined by the variance in fuel gain at the target site and the worst possible conditions during flight. Site use is modified by differences in predation risk between sites and differences in fuel deposition rates. An expression derived to predict site use under time minimization provides a good approximation in state-dependent models. In some cases, the possibility of starvation may influence optimal decisions, even when the probability of starvation under the optimal policy is low. This effect of starvation has also been found in other contexts. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Long-Term Evaluation of Cougar Density and Application of Risk Analysis for Harvest Management

Estimates of cougar (Puma concolor) density are among the least available of any big game species in North America because of monetary and logistical challenges. Thus, wildlife managers identify cougar density estimates as a high priority need for population estimation, developing harvest guidelines, and evaluating management objectives. Cougar densities range from <1 to almost 7 cougars/100 km²; however, the magnitude of spatial and temporal variation associated with these estimates is difficult to assess because this range of densities could potentially be reported for any given population using different demographic, temporal, durational, and analytical approaches. We used long-term global positioning system (GPS) data from collared cougars across 5 diverse study areas in Washington, USA, as the basis for calculating multiple annual independent-aged (≥18 months) cougar densities, using consistent methods, and conducted a meta-analysis to assist with statewide harvest guidelines. To generate specific harvest guidelines for unobserved populations at the management unit scale, we employed a Bayesian decision-theoretic approach that minimizes statistical risk of failing to achieve a defined harvest rate. For the 16-year field effort, we calculated 24 annual densities for independent-aged cougars. Average annual densities ranged from 1.55 ± 0.44 (SD) cougars/100 km² (n = 5 years) to 2.79 ± 0.35 cougars/100 km² (n = 5 years) among the 5 study areas. Explicit delineation of the cougar population demonstrated that contribution to density can vary considerably by sex and age class. Application of a 12–16% harvest rate within the risk analysis framework yielded a potential annual harvest of 249 cougars over 91,000 km² of cougar habitat in Washington. Given the importance of density for establishing harvest guidelines, and the degree of uncertainty in projecting derived densities to future years and unstudied management units, our approach may lessen the ambiguity of extrapolations and increase the longevity of research results. Our risk analysis can be used for a diverse array of species and management objectives and be incorporated into an adaptive management framework for minimizing management risk. Our recommendations can improve standardization in reporting and interpretation of cougar density comparisons and bring clarity to the sources of variability observed in cougar populations. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Securing Alternative Funding for Wildlife Management: Insights from Agency Leaders

Abstract: State wildlife management is in a period of change unlike any other in its history. The growing human population in most states is having unprecedented impacts on the natural environment. At the same time, society's interests and expectations regarding wildlife and wildlife management, respectively, are changing. Increasing demands on state wildlife management agencies and subsequent costs, as well as the declining relative numbers of hunters, the traditional funding source for state wildlife management, have caused the state wildlife management institution to acknowledge and address the need to find and secure nontraditional funding sources. We interviewed administrators from 24 state wildlife agencies to understand these leaders' perspectives on how their agencies have responded to pressure to develop alternative funding mechanisms. Specifically, we wanted to know if agency behavior was generally consistent with a typology of strategic organizational response, ranging from passive conformity to active resistance. We found evidence that state wildlife agencies exhibited strategic behavior consistent with this typology and, in some cases, were innovative in their efforts to secure alternative funding. In other cases, agency behavior was limited by real or perceived external constraints, particularly political factors. We provide a modified typology of organizational response reflecting the context of state wildlife management. Not all responses are appropriate or feasible for all agencies, so agencies must evaluate their environments to determine which strategies offer the greatest potential benefits and least potential costs. Agencies unable to behave strategically due to political or other constraints would benefit from establishing broad-based partnerships, including traditional and nontraditional stakeholders, with the purpose of building support for alternative funding of state wildlife management.     

Managing for Elevated Yield of Moose in Interior Alaska

ABSTRACT Given recent actions to increase sustained yield of moose (Alces alces) in Alaska, USA, we examined factors affecting yield and moose demographics and discussed related management. Prior studies concluded that yield and density of moose remain low in much of Interior Alaska and Yukon, Canada, despite high moose reproductive rates, because of predation from lightly harvested grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) and wolf (Canis lupus) populations. Our study area, Game Management Unit (GMU) 20A, was also in Interior Alaska, but we describe elevated yield and density of moose. Prior to our study, a wolf control program (1976–1982) helped reverse a decline in the moose population. Subsequent to 1975, moose numbers continued a 28-year, 7-fold increase through the initial 8 years of our study (λ_B1 = 1.05 during 1996–2004, peak density = 1,299 moose/1,000 km²). During these initial 8 hunting seasons, reported harvest was composed primarily of males ( = 88%). Total harvest averaged 5% of the prehunt population and 57 moose/1,000 km², the highest sustained harvest-density recorded in Interior Alaska for similar-sized areas. In contrast, sustained total harvests of <10 moose/1,000 km² existed among low-density, predator-limited moose populations in Interior Alaska (≤417 moose/1,000 km²). During the final 3 years of our study (2004–2006), moose numbers declined (λ_B2 = 0.96) as intended using liberal harvests of female and male moose ( = 47%) that averaged 7% of the prehunt population and 97 moose/1,000 km². We intentionally reduced high densities in the central half of GMU 20A (up to 1,741 moose/1,000 km² in Nov) because moose were reproducing at the lowest rate measured among wild, noninsular North American populations. Calf survival was uniquely high in GMU 20A compared with 7 similar radiocollaring studies in Alaska and Yukon. Low predation was the proximate factor that allowed moose in GMU 20A to increase in density and sustain elevated yields. Bears killed only 9% of the modeled postcalving moose population annually in GMU 20A during 1996–2004, in contrast to 18–27% in 3 studies of low-density moose populations. Thus, outside GMU 20A, higher bear predation rates can create challenges for those desiring rapid increases in sustained yield of moose. Wolves killed 8–15% of the 4 postcalving moose populations annually (10% in GMU 20A), hunters killed 2–6%, and other factors killed 1–6%. Annually during the increase phase in GMU 20A, calf moose constituted 75% of the predator-killed moose and predators killed 4 times more moose than hunters killed. Wolf predation on calves remained largely additive at the high moose densities studied in GMU 20A. Sustainable harvest-densities of moose can be increased several-fold in most areas of Interior Alaska where moose density and moose: predator ratios are lower than in GMU 20A and nutritional status is higher. Steps include 1) reducing predation sufficient to allow the moose population to grow, and 2) initiating harvest of female moose to halt population growth and maximize harvest after density-dependent moose nutritional indices reach or approach the thresholds we previously published.     

Managing Global Atmospheric Change: A U.S. Policy Perspective

There are several air pollution issues that concern the international community at the regional and global level, including acid deposition, heavy metals, persistent organic pollutants, stratospheric ozone depletion, and climate change. Governments at the regional and global levels have entered into various agreements in an effort to deal with these problems. This paper deals with two major global atmospheric change issues: stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change. The focus is on the policy responses of the United States to these global issues. The United States has signed and ratified international agreements to deal with both problems. The Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer have led to an effort in both developed and developing countries to phase out ozone depleting substances. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has been signed and ratified by over 180 countries. The UNFCC contained no binding targets and timetables for emissions reductions. The Kyoto Protocol (1997) to the UNFCCC did contain targets and timetables for reductions of greenhouse gases on the part of developed countries. The United States has signed but not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. The United States has experienced some movement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the part of various levels of government as well as the private sector. The policy process is constantly informed by scientific research. In the case of stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, much of this work is carried out under the auspices of international scientific panels. From a policy perspective, there is a great deal of interest in the use of indicators for assessing the scope and magnitude of these problems, both for fashioning policy responses as well as assessing the impact of adopted programs to reduce ozone depleting substances, and potentially, greenhouse gases. This paper will discuss some of the indicators used for stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.