Male Alpine Chamois Occupy Territories at Hotspots Before the Mating Season

Ungulate mating systems vary broadly both between and within species. Studies on mating systems in different habitats can provide clues to the ecological factors determining this diversity. Despite its abundance in the European Alps and its importance as a game species, surprisingly little is known about the mating system of Alpine chamois Rupicapra rupicapra rupicapra. We tested the hypothesis that adult males first defend mating territories in late spring, when females segregate from males and well before the Nov. rut. In the Gran Paradiso National Park (north‐western Italian Alps), adult males shared a winter range but occupied individual ranges in summer and early autumn. Males were more aggressive to each other in the summer than in the spring. A strong site fidelity from one year to the next was found for the summer and early autumn months. Those males that occupied the same territories both in the summer and during the rut (Nov.) appeared to be at hotspots, attractive to females during the rut because of reduced snow cover. Other males appeared to cluster around these hotspots during the rut. Territories that were first occupied during the summer were visited by more females than those that were not established until the rut began. Our results suggest that the mating system of this population of Alpine chamois consists of the early occupation of clustered mating territories. The early establishment of mating territories in areas frequented by females during the rut may lead to reproductive benefits for male chamois.     

Pasture Quality Affects Juvenile Survival through Reduced Maternal Care in a Mountain‐Dwelling Ungulate

Lactation exerts heavy energetic and physiological costs to mothers, whilst determining early growth and survival of offspring. To mountain ungulates, access to high‐quality forage during nursing and weaning is crucial for reproductive success. We have evaluated the effects of pasture quality on suckling behaviour and winter survival of Apennine chamois Rupicapra pyrenaica ornata kids, across three areas. Areas A‐B (‘poor’ areas) were characterised by a reduced availability of nutritious forage, thus a lower diet quality for female chamois and kids; Area C (a ‘rich’ area) included a much greater availability of nutritious forage. In poor areas, pasture quality has been reduced by climatic and plant composition changes, as well as the presence of a herbivore competitor (red deer Cervus elaphus). In poor areas, we recorded a significantly (1) lower suckling success of chamois kids (number of suckling bouts/number of suck attempts); (2) lower frequency of suckling bouts (n. suckling bouts/kid/h); and (3) lower suckling intensity (suck duration/kid/h) in respect to the rich area. Conversely, frequencies of suckling rejections and those of suckling attempts (n. events/kid/h) were the lowest in the rich area. Winter survival of chamois kids was c. 2 times greater in the rich area (45%) than in poor areas (20–26%). In the poor areas, resource scarcity induced adult female chamois to decrease maternal cares and favour their own maintenance, ultimately affecting population dynamics through kid winter mortality.     

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among‐population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long‐term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long‐term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species‐interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.     

Radio-controlled up-net enclosure to capture free-ranging Alpine chamois <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rupicapra rupicapra</Emphasis>

We used an enclosure trap with a lifting net to capture Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra). The trap was activated by remote radio-controlled electromagnets powered by photovoltaic modules. The up-net trap had considerable advantages over mechanical methods described in the literature for the capture of chamois. During 36 capture sessions, we captured 50 chamois, or 1.39 animals per session. Capture success was 96.2% of the average of 1.4 animals that entered the trap during a capture session. Mortality was 2%, and another 2% of the captured chamois was injured. There were no known postrelease capture-induced pathologies, and the capture effort was 1.7 man-days per chamois. The trap allowed to select specific target animals and to capture sex–age classes (particularly kids and their mothers) that are normally difficult or impossible to capture. It could be set off from a distance; it only required about 4 h to assemble and could be operated by as few as two people.     

Feeding habits,forage selection,and diet overlap in Alpine chamois (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Rupicapra rupicapra</Emphasis> L.) and domestic sheep

Fecal microhistological analyses have been used to assess the summer diet of chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra L., 1758) and domestic sheep and to evaluate diet overlap. The aim of our work was to investigate interspecific interactions and to assess the effects of sheep grazing on the summer feeding habits of chamois. A high dietary overlap (Pianka’s index = 0.93–0.99) was found, despite differences in the use of some plant groups. Sheep presence strongly affected chamois feeding habits: a reduction of highly digestible forbs was observed in the chamois diet during August, when both species grazed in the same range. As a consequence of sheep grazing, chamois may have been forced to reduce niche breadth and to change their food habits, increasing percentages of monocotyledons in the diet and feeding mainly on Cyperaceae. The diet overlap between sheep and chamois suggests that resource-mediated interactions as well as direct competition must be taken into account when evaluating chamois and sheep compatibility on Alpine meadows.     

Hydrologic Variability Governs Population Dynamics of a Vulnerable Amphibian in an Arid Environment

Dynamics of many amphibian populations are governed by the distribution and availability of water. Therefore, understanding the hydrological mechanisms that explain spatial and temporal variation in occupancy and abundance will improve our ability to conserve and recover populations of vulnerable amphibians. We used 16 years of survey data from intermittent mountain streams in the Sonoran Desert to evaluate how availability of surface water affected survival and adult recruitment of a threatened amphibian, the lowland leopard frog (Lithobates yavapaiensis). Across the entire study period, monthly survival of adults ranged from 0.72 to 0.99 during summer and 0.59 to 0.94 during winter and increased with availability of surface water (Z = 7.66; P < 0.01). Recruitment of frogs into the adult age class occurred primarily during winter and ranged from 1.9 to 3.8 individuals/season/pool; like survival, recruitment increased with availability of surface water (Z = 3.67; P < 0.01). Although abundance of frogs varied across seasons and years, we found no evidence of a systematic trend during the 16-year study period. Given the strong influence of surface water on population dynamics of leopard frogs, conservation of many riparian obligates in this and similar arid regions likely depends critically on minimizing threats to structures and ecosystem processes that maintain surface waters. Understanding the influence of surface-water availability on riparian organisms is particularly important because climate change is likely to decrease precipitation and increase ambient temperatures in desert riparian systems, both of which have the potential to alter fundamentally the hydrology of these systems.     

Decline of a montane Mediterranean pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population in relation to climate

Certain populations of long‐distance migratory birds are suffering declines, which may be attributed to effects of climate change. In this article, we have analysed a long‐term (1991–2015) data set on a pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca population breeding in nest‐boxes in a Mediterranean montane oak forest, exploring the trends in population size due to changes in nestling recruitment, female survival and female immigration. We have related these changes in population parameters to local climate, winter NAO index and to breeding density. During the last 25 yr the population has declined by half, mainly in association with a decrease in nestling mass and structural size which had repercussions on the probability of nestling recruitment to the population. Lower local nestling recruitment in certain years was linked to lower female immigration rate in the same years. On the other hand, the local survival of females remained stable throughout the study period. Laying date and breeding success were negatively affected by local temperatures while breeding, recruitment rate likewise by minimum temperature prior to breeding in April. As minimum April temperatures have increased across the study period, this may have affected recruitment and immigration rates negatively. On the other hand, tarsus length and body mass of nestlings were positively associated with winter NAO index, pointing to more global climatic links. Moreover, there was also a negative temporal trend in body mass of adults, implying increasingly difficult conditions for breeding. Declining recruit production in the study area could be attributed to a mismatch between the timing of arrival and breeding in the population, and the peak of food availability in this area.     

Climate warming is associated with smaller body size and shorter lifespans in moose near their southern range limit

Despite the importance of body size for individual fitness, population dynamics and community dynamics, the influence of climate change on growth and body size is inadequately understood, particularly for long‐lived vertebrates. Although temporal trends in body size have been documented, it remains unclear whether these changes represent the adverse impact of climate change (environmental stress constraining phenotypes) or its mitigation (via phenotypic plasticity or evolution). Concerns have also been raised about whether climate change is indeed the causal agent of these phenotypic shifts, given the length of time‐series analysed and that studies often do not evaluate – and thereby sufficiently rule out – other potential causes. Here, we evaluate evidence for climate‐related changes in adult body size (indexed by skull size) over a 4–decade period for a population of moose (Alces alces) near the southern limit of their range whilst also considering changes in density, predation, and human activities. In particular, we document: (i) a trend of increasing winter temperatures and concurrent decline in skull size (decline of 19% for males and 13% for females) and (ii) evidence of a negative relationship between skull size and winter temperatures during the first year of life. These patterns could be plausibly interpreted as an adaptive phenotypic response to climate warming given that latitudinal/temperature clines are often accepted as evidence of adaptation to local climate. However, we also observed: (iii) that moose with smaller skulls had shorter lifespans, (iv) a reduction in lifespan over the 4‐decade study period, and (v) a negative relationship between lifespan and winter temperatures during the first year of life. Those observations indicate that this phenotypic change is not an adaptive response to climate change. However, this decline in lifespan was not accompanied by an obvious change in population dynamics, suggesting that climate change may affect population dynamics and life‐histories differently.     

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long‐term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic

The ‘Moran effect’ predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large‐scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high‐Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8–324 km apart suggested that density‐dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one ‘continental’ reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density‐dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift—with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity—led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.     

Combined effects of global climate change and nutrient enrichment on the physiology of three temperate maerl species

Made up of calcareous coralline algae, maerl beds play a major role as ecosystem engineers in coastal areas throughout the world. They undergo strong anthropogenic pressures, which may threaten their survival. The aim of this study was to gain insight into the future of maerl beds in the context of global and local changes. We examined the effects of rising temperatures (+3°C) and ocean acidification (?0.3 pH units) according to temperature and pH projections (i.e., the RCP 8.5 scenario), and nutrient (N and P) availability on three temperate maerl species (Lithothamnion corallioides, Phymatolithon calcareum, and Lithophyllum incrustans) in the laboratory in winter and summer conditions. Physiological rates of primary production, respiration, and calcification were measured on all three species in each treatment and season. The physiological response of maerl to global climate change was species‐specific and influenced by seawater nutrient concentrations. Future temperature–pH scenario enhanced maximal gross primary production rates in P. calcareum in winter and in L. corallioides in both seasons. Nevertheless, both species suffered an impairment of light harvesting and photoprotective mechanisms in winter. Calcification rates at ambient light intensity were negatively affected by the future temperature–pH scenario in winter, with net dissolution observed in the dark in L. corallioides and P. calcareum under low nutrient concentrations. Nutrient enrichment avoided dissolution under future scenarios in winter and had a positive effect on L. incrustans calcification rate in the dark in summer. In winter conditions, maximal calcification rates were enhanced by the future temperature–pH scenario on the three species, but P. calcareum suffered inhibition at high irradiances. In summer conditions, the maximal calcification rate dropped in L. corallioides under the future global climate change scenario, with a potential negative impact on CaCO₃ budget for maerl beds in the Bay of Brest where this species is dominant. Our results highlight how local changes in nutrient availability or irradiance levels impact the response of maerl species to global climate change and thus point out how it is important to consider other abiotic parameters in order to develop management policies capable to increase the resilience of maerl beds under the future global climate change scenario.     

Habitat and climate shape growth patterns in a mountain ungulate

Uptake and use of energy are of key importance for animals living in temperate environments that undergo strong seasonal changes in forage quality and quantity. In ungulates, energy intake strongly affects body mass gain, an important component of individual fitness. Energy allocation among life‐history traits can be affected by internal and external factors. Here, we investigate large‐scale variation in body growth patterns of Alpine chamois Rupicapra rupicapra rupicapra, in relation to sex, age, temperature, and habitat variations across 31 (sub)populations in the Central European Alps. Taking advantage of an exceptionally large dataset (n = 178,175) of chamois hunted over 27 consecutive years between 1993 and 2019 in mountain ranges with different proportions of forest cover, we found that (i) patterns of body mass growth differ between mountain ranges, with lower body mass but faster mass growth with increasing proportion of forest cover and that (ii) the effect of spring and summer temperatures on changes in body growth patterns are larger in mountain ranges with lower forest cover compared to mountain ranges with higher forest cover. Our results show that patterns of body mass growth within a species are more plastic than expected and depend on environmental and climatic conditions. The recent decline in body mass observed in Alpine chamois populations may have greater impacts on populations living above the treeline than in forests, which may buffer against the effects of increasing temperatures on life‐history traits.     

Reflections of ecological differences? Stress responses of sympatric Alpine chamois and red deer to weather,forage quality,and human disturbance

Depending on the habitats they live in, temperate ungulates have adapted to different degrees to seasonally changing forage and weather conditions, and to specific escape strategies from predators. Alpine chamois, a mountain ungulate, and red deer, originally adapted to open plains, would therefore be expected to differ in their physiological responses to potential stressors. Based on 742 chamois and 1557 red deer fecal samples collected year‐round every 2 weeks for 4 years at the same locations within a strictly protected area in the Swiss Alps, we analyzed glucocorticoid metabolite (FGM) concentrations for both species. Results from linear mixed effects models revealed no physiological stress response to changing visitor numbers, but instead to drought conditions for both species during summer. In winter, FGM concentrations increased with increasing snow height in both species, but this response was modulated by temperature in red deer. Chamois showed a stronger stress response to increasing snow height during November and December than between January and March, while FGM concentrations increased with decreasing temperature throughout winter. An increase in FGM concentrations with decreasing forage digestibility during winter was found only for red deer. The results are thus partly in contradiction to expectations based on feeding type and adaptations to different habitats between the two species. The lack of a response to forage digestibility in chamois may reflect either better adaptation to difficult feeding conditions in subalpine forests, or, by contrast, strong constraints imposed by forage quality. The similar responses of both species to weather conditions in winter suggest that climatic factors at the elevations examined here are sufficiently harsh to be limiting to temperate ungulates regardless of their specific adaptations to this environment.     

Effects of experimentally imposed climate scenarios on flowering phenology and flower production of subarctic bog species

Climate scenarios for high‐latitude areas predict not only increased summer temperatures, but also larger variation in snowfall and winter temperatures. By using open‐top chambers, we experimentally manipulated both summer temperatures and winter and spring snow accumulations and temperatures independently in a blanket bog in subarctic Sweden, yielding six climate scenarios. We studied the effects of these scenarios on flowering phenology and flower production of Andromeda polifolia (woody evergreen) and Rubus chamaemorus (perennial herb) during 2 years. The second year of our study (2002) was characterized by unusually high spring and early summer temperatures. Our winter manipulations led to consistent increases in winter snow cover. As a result, average and minimum air and soil temperatures in the high snow cover treatments were higher than in the winter ambient treatments, whereas temperature fluctuations were smaller. Spring warming resulted in higher average, minimum, and maximum soil temperatures. Summer warming led to higher air and soil temperatures in mid‐summer (June–July), but not in late summer (August–September). The unusually high temperatures in 2002 advanced the median flowering date by 2 weeks for both species in all treatments. Superimposed on this effect, we found that for both Andromeda and Rubus, all our climate treatments (except summer warming for Rubus) advanced flowering by 1–4 days. The total flower production of both species showed a more or less similar response: flower production in the warm year 2002 exceeded that in 2001 by far. However, in both species flower production was only stimulated by the spring‐warming treatments. Our results show that the reproductive ecology of both species is very responsive to climate change but this response is very dependent on specific climate events, especially those that occur in winter and spring. This suggests that high‐latitude climate change experiments should focus more on winter and spring events than has been the case so far.     

Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex

A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40‐year tree ring record and a 30‐year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (?10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (?26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving‐window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate–growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the ‘climate hiatus’. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone.     

Modern pollen assemblages as climate indicators in southern Europe

Aim and Location Our aim is to develop pollen–climate inference models for southern Europe and to test their performance and inference power by cross‐validation with modern climate data. Surface sediments collected from lakes along a climate gradient from the winter‐cold/summer‐wet Alps to winter‐wet/summer‐dry Sicily were analysed for modern pollen assemblages. Methods For each lake, mean monthly temperatures, seasonal precipitation and site‐specific climate uncertainties have been estimated. Pollen–climate relationships were studied using numerical analyses, and inference models were derived by partial least squares (PLS) and weighted‐averaging PLS (WA‐PLS) regressions for January and July temperatures (T), and for winter, spring and summer precipitation (P). In order to assess whether these variables are also of ecological importance for vegetation in the subregions, we split the data set into an Alpine and a Mediterranean subset. Results Low bootstrap cross‐validated root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) for January T (1.7 °C), July T (2.1 °C) and summer P (38 mm), as well as low RMSEPs expressed as a percentage of the gradient length (8–9%), indicate a good inference power. Models revealed excellent to good performance statistics for January T, July T and summer P (r²= 0.8), and for winter and spring P (r²=c. 0.5). We show that the variables with the highest explanatory power differ between the two subregions. These are summer T and P for the Alpine set, and January T, winter P and July T for the Mediterranean set. Main conclusions The study reveals the influence of climatic conditions during the growing season on modern pollen assemblages and indicates the potential of pollen data for long‐term climate reconstructions of parameters such as winter precipitation and temperature, which seem to be the main factors having an influence on the variability of Mediterranean climate. These models may therefore provide important information on past regional climate variability in southern Europe.     

Changing temperature regimes have advanced the phenology of Odonata in the Netherlands

Abstract.  1. Responses of biota to climate change have been well documented for a restricted number of taxa. This study examined shifts in phenology of 37 species of the aquatic insect order Odonata in the Netherlands over the last decade.
2. The present study shows that adults of the Dutch dragonflies and damselflies have advanced their flight dates over recent years due to complex effects of changing temperature regimes on the timing of adult flight dates.
3. Flight dates did not respond to changes in autumn/winter temperatures, advanced with increases in spring temperatures of the focal and previous year, and delayed with increases in summer temperatures of the previous year. Climate change consequently advanced the flight dates of the Odonata because only spring temperatures have increased during the study period.
4. The findings imply that climate change can evoke strong phenological responses in aquatic insects. Moreover, shifts in phenology due to climate change are likely to vary both spatially or temporally, depending on the exact nature of climate change.     

Feeding dynamics of Palaemon peringueyi (Decapoda,Caridea) in the temporarily open/closed Kasouga Estuary,South Africa

The feeding ecology of the caridean shrimp Palaemon peringueyi in the temporarily open/closed Kasouga Estuary, Eastern Cape, was examined during summer and winter employing stomach fullness index (SFI) analysis. Mean SFI values for male and female shrimp during summer ranged from 0.85% to 2.36% and from 0.56% and 2.61% body dry weight, respectively. During winter, SFI values for males and females were lower, and varied between 0.23% and 1.56% and 0.36% and 1.84% body dry weight, respectively. There were no significant differences in the SFI values between males and females during the two seasons. A peak in the feeding activity for both sexes was observed during the daytime during both summer and winter. For both males and females, non-linear regression analysis best explained the change in SFI over time. The gut evacuation rate constants (k) of males and females during summer were estimated at 0.43 h^?1 and 0.30 h^?1, respectively. These values correspond to a daily food intake equivalent to 16.2% body dwt for males and 11.1% body dwt for females. During winter, the gut evacuation rates of the shrimp were estimated at 0.35 h^?1 for males and 0.28 h^?1 for females. The daily ration for adult male and female shrimp during winter was estimated at 6.1% and 6.8% body dwt, respectively. The lower estimates obtained during winter appear largely to reflect the influence of the reduced water temperatures on the metabolic activities of the shrimp.     

Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios

Climate change represents a primary threat to species persistence and biodiversity at a global scale. Cold adapted alpine species are especially sensitive to climate change and can offer key “early warning signs” about deleterious effects of predicted change. Among mountain ungulates, survival, a key determinant of demographic performance, may be influenced by future climate in complex, and possibly opposing ways. Demographic data collected from 447 mountain goats in 10 coastal Alaska, USA, populations over a 37‐year time span indicated that survival is highest during low snowfall winters and cool summers. However, general circulation models (GCMs) predict future increase in summer temperature and decline in winter snowfall. To disentangle how these opposing climate‐driven effects influence mountain goat populations, we developed an age‐structured population model to project mountain goat population trajectories for 10 different GCM/emissions scenarios relevant for coastal Alaska. Projected increases in summer temperature had stronger negative effects on population trajectories than the positive demographic effects of reduced winter snowfall. In 5 of the 10 GCM/representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the net effect of projected climate change was extinction over a 70‐year time window (2015–2085); smaller initial populations were more likely to go extinct faster than larger populations. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that distributional shifts to higher elevation (i.e., “thermoneutral”) summer range was unlikely to be a viable behavioral adaptation strategy; due to the conical shape of mountains, summer range was expected to decline by 17%–86% for 7 of the 10 GCM/RCP scenarios. Projected declines of mountain goat populations are driven by climate‐linked bottom‐up mechanisms and may have wide ranging implications for alpine ecosystems. These analyses elucidate how projected climate change can negatively alter population dynamics of a sentinel alpine species and provide insight into how demographic modeling can be used to assess risk to species persistence.     

Plant community dynamics in a calcareous grassland under climate change manipulations

This study investigates the effects of field manipulations of local climate to determine the potential impact of climate change on plant community dynamics in a calcareous grassland. The experimental site is located in a grassland at the Wytham estate, Oxfordshire, UK. The one hectare study area is within a 10 ha abandoned arable field on Jurassic corallian limestone. Two climate change scenarios were used: warmer winters with increased summer rainfall and warmer winters with summer drought. Plant cover and species richness were significantly increased in plots receiving supplemented summer rainfall, while the amount of litter was significantly reduced. Litter formation was significantly increased by winter warming and drought. The responses of the plant community to the climate manipulations were related to the life-history attributes of the dominant species. Seedling recruitment was limited by microsite availability, which also varied in the different climate manipulations. The results are discussed in terms of successional dynamics. They suggest that warmer winters may delay succession, as gap formation in the sward will provide sites for colonisation of annuals, thereby enabling their persistence in the sward. Under wetter conditions during summer, perennial grasses tend to close the sward, thereby inhibiting the establishment of later successional species.     

The long summer: pre-wintering temperatures affect metabolic expenditure and winter survival in a solitary bee

The impact of climate change on insect populations depends on specific life cycle traits and physiological adaptations. The solitary bee Osmia lignaria winters as a pre-emergent adult, and requires a period of cold temperature for winter diapause completion. It is a univoltine species, and diapause induction does not depend on photoperiod. To understand the potential effects of longer summers on O. lignaria populations, we exposed individuals to three treatments simulating early, mid and late winter arrivals, and measured respiration rates, metabolic expenditure, weight loss, fat body depletion, lipid levels and winter mortality. The early-winter treatment disrupted diapause development, but had no apparent negative effects on fitness. In contrast, late-winter bees had a greater energetic expenditure (1.5-fold), weight (1.4-fold) and lipid (2-fold) loss, greater fat body depletion, and a 19% increase in mortality compared to mid-winter bees. We also monitored adult eclosion and arrival of winter temperatures under natural conditions in four years. We found a positive correlation between mean degree-day accumulation during pre-wintering (a measure of asynchrony between adult eclosion and winter arrival) and yearly winter mortality. Individually, bees experiencing greater degree-day accumulations exhibited reduced post-winter longevity. Timing of adult eclosion in O. lignaria is dependent on the duration of the prepupal period, which occurs in mid-summer, is also diapause-mediated, and is longer in populations from southerly latitudes. In a global warming scenario, we expect long summer diapause phenotypes to replace short summer diapause phenotypes, effectively maintaining short pre-wintering periods in spite of delayed winter arrivals.