Time trends of thyroid cancer incidence in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident.

The rates of childhood thyroid cancer incidence observed in Belarus during the period 1986 to 1995 are described as a function of time after exposure, age at exposure, and sex. Conclusions are drawn for the excess absolute risk function. After a minimum latent period of about 3 years after exposure, this risk function has a linear increase with time for at least 6 years. After correction for the dependence of average doses on age, the radiation-induced absolute thyroid risk in Gomel is about a factor of 3 higher for children up to age 10 at exposure compared to older ones; this may be due in part to different case-collection quality. In addition, in the group up to 10 years at exposure, the thyroid of girls is more sensitive to radiation by a factor of about 1.5 than the thyroid of boys on an absolute scale. Risk estimates from external exposure are consistent with risk estimates from Gomel assuming that the increase in excess cases reaches a plateau soon.     

Nuclear-power-plant accidents: thyroid cancer incidence and radiation-related health effects from the Chernobyl accident

Following the Chernobyl accident, enormous amounts of radioisotopes were released in the atmosphere and have contaminated surrounding populations in the absence of rapid protective countermeasures. The highest radiation doses were delivered to the thyroid gland, and the only direct consequence of radiation exposure observed among contaminated population is the increased incidence of thyroid cancers among subjects who were children in 1986 and who lived at that time in Belarus, Ukraine or Russia.     

Thyroid cancer risk in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident: Comparison with external exposures

Within the time period 1990–1993, childhood thyroid cancer incidence due to the Chernobyl accident increased dramatically in Belarus, especially with regard to the birth cohort January 1, 1971, to May 31, 1986. This rise subsequently slowed down, i.e. during the period 1994–1996. The respective data were analysed and compared with the results of an analysis on the time dependence of thyroid cancer incidence in a pooled cohort of persons who had been exposed during childhood to external radiation with high dose rates. Concerning the period of 5–10 years following exposure, the excess absolute cancer risk per unit thyroid dose in the latter (external) exposure group was found to exceed the one in the Belarus group by a factor of two. This difference, however, is not statistically significant. The age-adjusted average excess absolute risk per unit thyroid dose for the period of 5–50 years following external childhood exposure was found to be 8 female and 14 male cases per 10⁴ person-year · Gy, which is a factor about 2.5 times higher than for the non-adjusted risk in the pooled cohort, as reported by Ron et al. in 1995. Assessments of future excess thyroid cancer cases due to the Chernobyl accident were done on the basis of the time dependence of thyroid cancer risk following external exposure. The thyroid cancer incidence among the birth cohort considered in Belarus and for a period starting from the cessation of the available observation data (1 January 1997) and extending to 50 years after the Chernobyl accident has been estimated to be about 15,000 cases, with an uncertainty range of 5000–45,000 cases. According to our calculations, 80% of these cases exceed the baseline risk under enhanced thyroid surveillance. Received: 8 June 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 20 November 1999     

Leukaemia and thyroid cancer in emergency workers of the Chernobyl accident:

This work focuses on the direct epidemiological assessment of the risks of radiation-induced leukaemia and thyroid cancer in emergency workers (EW) after the Chernobyl accident. The Russian National Medical Dosimetric Registry (RNMDR) contains data for 168 000 EW as of January 1, 1996. The analysis relates to 48 leukaemias and 47 thyroid cancers, diagnosed and verified. Radiation risks are estimated by comparing the EW data with national data for a male population of the same age distribution. For leukaemia, an excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) of 4.30 (95% CI: 0.83, 7.75) is obtained, while the excess absolute risk per 10⁴ person-years (PY) Gy (EAR/10⁴ PY Gy) is found to be 1.31 (95% CI: 0.23, 2.39); for thyroid cancer an ERR/Gy of 5.31 (95% CI: 0.04, 10.58) is obtained, and an EAR/10⁴ PY Gy of 1.15 (95% CI: 0.08, 2.22).     

The effects of non-human species irradiation after the Chernobyl nuclear accident

Data are presented on the effects of irradiation of different biota species after the Chernobyl accident.     

Thyroid cancer risk in areas of Ukraine and Belarus affected by the Chernobyl accident

The purpose of the present study was to analyze the thyroid cancer incidence risk after the Chernobyl accident and its degree of dependence on time and age. Data were analyzed for 1034 settlements in Ukraine and Belarus, in which more than 10 measurements of the (131)I content in human thyroids had been performed in May/June 1986. Thyroid doses due to the Chernobyl accident were assessed for the birth years 1968-1985 and related to thyroid cancers that were surgically removed during the period 1990-2001. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the EAR dose response was 2.66 (95% CI: 2.19; 3.13) cases per 10(4) PY-Gy; for the quadratic coefficient, it was -0.145 (95% CI: -0.171; -0.119) cases per 10(4) PY-Gy(2). The EAR was found to be higher for females than for males by a factor of 1.4. It decreased with age at exposure and increased with age attained. The central estimate for the linear coefficient of the ERR dose response was 18.9 (95% CI: 11.1; 26.7) Gy(-1); for the quadratic coefficient, it was -1.03 (95% CI: -1.46; -0.60) Gy(-2). The ERR was found to be smaller for females than for males by a factor of 3.8 and decreased strongly with age at exposure. Both EAR and ERR were higher in the Belarusian settlements than in the Ukrainian settlements. In contrast to ERR, EAR increases with time after exposure. At the end of the observation period, excess risk estimates were found to be close to those observed in a major pooled analysis of seven studies of childhood thyroid cancer after external exposures.     

Infant leukemia in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident

Petridou et al. [1] have reported an increase in infant leukemia in Greek children born between 1/7/86 and 31/12/87 and have linked this increase to in utero radiation exposure due to the Chernobyl accident. Subsequently, Michaelis et al. [2] have reported a similar trend for Germany but found that it was not correlated to the levels of contamination. For Belarus, which was much more severely affected, a similar but much weaker trend is found. Received: 2 January 1998 / Accepted in revised form: 23 January 1998     

Thyroid dose and thyroid cancer incidence after the Chernobyl accident: assessments for the Zhytomyr region (Ukraine)

In the Zhytomyr region, about 52 000 measurements of the ¹³¹I activity in thyroids were performed. On the basis of these measurements, individual doses have been assessed for the people monitored and age-dependent average doses have been estimated for those settlements with more than 11 direct measurements. In order to estimate the pattern of thyroid exposure in the Zhytomyr region, these doses have been interpolated or extrapolated to population groups who were not monitored during May–June 1986. For this purpose, a model has been developed based on a correlation between thyroid dose estimates with the ¹³⁷Cs deposition and the co-ordinates of the settlements relative to Chernobyl. Collective doses of people who were born in the years 1968 to 1986 were calculated. The radiation-induced thyroid cancer incidence in the period 1991 to 1995 was assessed by subtracting the spontaneous incidence from the observed incidence. The result is considerably lower than that observed in longer periods after external exposures. Possible reasons for this difference are discussed. Received: 17 January 1997 / Accepted in revised form: 2 October 1997     

Thyroid cancer incidence among liquidators of the Chernobyl accident

The increase of thyroid cancer incidence rate among children living in the Chernobyl contaminated territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine has widely been accepted. Our current work deals with thyroid cancer incidence in the cohort of liquidators (99024 persons) living in 6 regions of Russia: North-West, Volgo-Vyatsky, Central-Chernozemny, Povolzhsky, North-Caucasus and Urals. In the period 1986-1998, a total of 58 thyroid cancer cases were detected in this cohort. We found a statistically significant increase of the thyroid cancer incidence rate in liquidators as compared to the baseline (male population of Russia) level (SIR=4.33, 95% CI: 3.29; 5.60). It was demonstrated that there is no dependence of incidence rates due to external radiation exposure (ERR/Gy=-2.23, 95% CI: -4.67; 0.22).     

Thyroid cancer incidence in the Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident: comparison with spontaneous incidences

The thyroid cancer incidence in the Ukraine among those born in the period 1968–1986 was analyzed with the aim to identify the enhancement due to the Chernobyl accident. Since any Ukrainian data referring to the time period before the accident are scarce and the variation of spontaneous incidences in other countries is immense, the Ukrainian incidences in the period 1986–1989 were used to estimate the baseline risk. Following 1990, the incidence in the southern part of the Ukraine increased by about 30%, independent of age. In the other parts the increase of the incidence depended on age at exposure. In the age group of 9-year-old children, the incidences in three regions defined as the `high-dose area', the northern, and the middle oblasts, increased by factors of 50, 20, and 6, respectively. These rates (1991–1995) are well above spontaneous rates in other countries. In the age group of 17-year-old juveniles, the incidence increased by a factor of 6 for the `high dose area' and in the three northern oblasts, whereas in the nine `middle' oblasts it was similar to the incidence of the `southern' Ukraine. These rates are within the range found in other countries.     

Cytogenetic and carcinogenic effects in liquidators of Chernobyl accident

A tendency of the increasing frequency of malignant neoplasms in liquidators at low radiation doses was found. The dose-effect dependence of the frequency of radiation markers (dicentric chromosomes) in lymphocytes of peripheral blood was revealed only in a group of liquidators of the ChNPP accident with malignant neoplasms in remote terms.     

Results of cytogenetic studies of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident

The selected results of the cytogenetic studies of the Chernobyl accident consequences were summarised. The chromosomal aberrations were used as a method of biodosimetry for a dose assessment for victims during the initial period after the Chernobyl accident. A good correlation between doses calculated based on chromosomal aberrations (dicentrics) and severity of acute radiation syndrome observed in clinic was found. The biodosimetry based on conventional cytogenetic technique (dicentrics) has been unsuccessful for various groups (rehabilitation workers, evacuees, inhabitants of contaminated areas) sampled long time after the Chernobyl accident. The possible reasons of the failure are analysed. The original results of multiaberration cell yield observed in different cohorts of the Chernobyl victims are presented. The problems related to the phenomena are discussed.     

Transfer factor of131I from the fallout to human thyroid dose equivalent after the Chernobyl accident

Summary A similar pattern of variation with time in observed maxima of daily dose equivalent rates in human thyroids (TD - µSv·d^–1) and of daily fallout radioactivities (FR - kBq·m^–2) has been found after the Chernobyl accident. An estimate of the time-lag between the maxima in TD lines and the preceding FR peaks was made of about seven days for adult and nine days for juveniles. Applying this time-lag it was possible to estimate transfer factors from the fall-out to thyroid dose equivalent: the highest estimated values were 221 µSv/kBq·m^–2 for adult and 641 µSv/kBq·m^–2 for juvenile thyroids. These values differ from those published by UNSCEAR (United Nations 1988), which have been calculated for various regions of Czechoslovakia, from ingestion and inhalation intake estimates. A broad variation of transfer factor values could be expected to result from such transfer calculations using ingestion and inhalation estimates. The findings also support the concept of a need for prolonged iodine prophylaxy after emissions of radioiodine into the environment.Abbreviations TD dose equivalent rates in thyroids [µSv·d^–1] - FR fall-out radioactivity (-ies) [kBq·m^–2]     

Autoimmune disorders in liqvidators 11 years after the Chernobyl accident

We studied long-lasting consequences of the low-doses irradiation on the immune system of 71 clean-up workers who participated in the emergency work after the Chernobyl Plant accident in 1986 and 25 healthy donors from Belarus. In sera of the workers the level of autoantibodies to thyroid gland antigens (thyroglobulin and microsomal fraction of thyroid gland) was increased in 48% of cases, the level of autoantibodies to lens oculis antigen was increased in 44% of cases; the level of circulating immune complexes was elevated in 55%, and the serum level of thyroglobulin in 60% of people. Immunological disorders were found without any definite clinical evidences of diseases and this allows us to consider the examined contingent as a group of risk for the development of autoimmune pathology in the future.     

Childhood leukemia in Belarus before and after the Chernobyl accident

Childhood leukemia (ICD 204–208 [1]) incidence rates in the different regions of Belarus are reported for a period before and after the Chernobyl accident (1982–1994). There are, at this point, no recognizable trends towards higher rates.     

Genetic effects in plant populations in the zone of the Chernobyl accident

During 6 years, starting from 1986, the monitoring of the dynamics of the frequency of embryo lethal and of chlorophyll mutations was carried out in arabidopsis populations in areas with different levels of radioactive contamination by the Muller embryo-test in the 30 km of ChNPP. The dose rate of chronic irradiation in the examined areas varied from 0.014 to 17 nA/Kg. Monitoring of the dynamics of the mutation process in natural arabidopsis populations showed the correlation between the level of the mutation process and the dose rate of chronic irradiation. The genetic effects of different levels of radioactive contamination were estimated by determining the frequency of mutations occurred in this generation and by calculating the dose of irradiation of one was found. That the dependence of the mutation frequency on the dose of irradiation presents a power function with a power index less 1, which suggests a higher efficiency of low radiation doses per unit dose. Possible explanations of this phenomenon are considered in the work. The studies of cytogenetic effects in chronically exposed Crepis tectorum populations in the zones of the Chernobyl accident showed that starting from the second year after the Chernobyl disaster there appeared plants with an altered karyotype and their frequency of chromosome aberrations correlates in root meristem cells.