Invasive cane toads are unique in shape but overlap in ecological niche compared to Australian native frogs

Invasive species are an important issue worldwide but predicting invasiveness, and the underlying mechanisms that cause it, is difficult. There are several primary hypotheses to explain invasion success. Two main hypothesis based on niche spaces stand out as alternative, although not exclusive. The empty niche hypothesis states that invaders occupy a vacant niche space in the recipient community, and the niche competition hypothesis states that invaders overlap with native species in niche space. Studies on trait similarity/dissimilarity between the invader and native species can provide information on their niche overlap. Here, we use the highly invasive and well‐studied cane toad (Rhinella marina) to test these two hypotheses in Australia, and assess its degree of overlap with native species in several niche dimensions. We compare extensive morphological and environmental data of this successful invader to 235 species (97%) of native Australian frogs. Our study is the first to document the significant morphological differences between the invasive cane toad and a continent‐wide frog radiation: despite significant environmental overlap, cane toads were distinct in body size and shape from most Australian frog species, suggesting that in addition to their previously documented phenotypic plasticity and wide environmental and trophic niche breadth, their unique shape also may have contributed to their success as an invasive species in Australia. Thus, the invasive success of cane toads in Australia may be explained through them successfully colonizing an empty niche among Australian anurans. Our results support that the cane toad's distinct morphology may have played a unique role in the invasiveness of this species in Australia, which coupled with a broad environmental niche breadth, would have boosted their ability to expand their distribution across Australia. We also propose RLLR (Relative limb length ratio) as a potentially useful measure of identifying morphological niche uniqueness and a potential measure of invasiveness potential in anuran amphibians.     

Predicting worldwide invasiveness for four major problematic decapods: an evaluation of using different calibration sets

Recently, there has been much debate whether niche based models (NBM) can predict biological invasions into new areas. These studies have chiefly focused on the type of occurrence data to use for model calibration. Additionally, pseudo‐absences are also known to cause uncertainty in NBM, but are rarely tested for predicting invasiveness. Here we test the implications of using different calibration sets for building worldwide invasiveness models for four major problematic decapods: Cherax destructor, Eriocheir sinensis, Pacifastacus leniusculus and Procambarus clarkii. Using Artificial Neural Networks models we compared predictions containing either native range occurrences (NRO), native and invasive occurrences (NIO) and invasive only (IRO) coupled with three types of pseudo‐absences – based on sampling only 1) the native range (NRA), 2) native and invasive ranges (NIA), and 3) worldwide random (WRA). We further analysed the potential gains in accuracy obtained through averaging across multiple models. Our results showed that NRO and IRO provided the best predictions for native and invaded ranges, respectively. Still, NIO provided the best balance in predicting both ranges. Pseudo‐absences had a large influence on the predictive performance of the models, and were more important for predictiveness than types of occurrences. Specifically, WRA performed the best and NRA and NIA performed poorly. We also found little benefit in combining predictions since best performing single‐models showed consistently higher accuracies. We conclude that NBM can provide useful information in forecasting invasiveness but are largely dependent on the type of initial information used and more efforts should be placed on recognizing its implications. Our results also show extensive areas which are highly suitable for the studied species worldwide. In total these areas reach from three to nine times the species current ranges and large portions of them are contiguous with currently invasive populations.     

Foraging Responses of the Larvae of Invasive Bullfrogs(Lithobates catesbeianus): Possible Implications for Bullfrog Control and Ecological Impact in China

The predatory behavior of invasive species can affect their ecological impact, and offer opportunities for targeted control. In Australia, tadpoles of invasive cane toads(Rhinella marina) do not consume eggs of native anurans, but are strongly attracted to(and consume) newly-laid eggs of conspecifics; chemical cues from such eggs(or adult secretions) thus can be used to attract toad tadpoles to traps. Do other invasive anurans show similar selectivity? Our laboratory trials on a Chinese population of invasive American bullfrogs(Lithobates catesbeianus) revealed similar behaviors as exhibited by Australian cane toads. Bullfrog tadpoles rarely consumed the eggs of native anurans, but were attracted to both bullfrog eggs and bullfrog skin secretions. Although the attraction response was less intense in bullfrogs than in cane toads, it might nonetheless enable selective removal of bullfrog tadpoles from invaded sites.     

Invasive and flexible: niche shift in the drosophilid <Emphasis Type="Italic">Zaprionus indianus</Emphasis> (Insecta,Diptera)

Although predictions of potential distributions of invasive species often assume niche conservatism, recent analyses suggest that niche shifts can also occur. Thus, further studies are necessary to provide a better understanding of niche dynamics and to predict geographic distribution in invaded areas. The present study investigated the niche shift hypothesis at a broad biogeographical scale, using the comprehensive distribution of the invasive species Zaprionus indianus in its native (Africa) and invaded (America and India) ranges. Z. indianus is a very successful invasive species that presents high adaptive flexibility and extreme physiological tolerance. To investigate whether Z. indianus changed its climatic niche from Africa to America and India, multivariate analyses, as well as ecological niche modeling procedures (GARP, MAXENT and Mahalanobis distances), were used. Multivariate analyses showed that the niche spaces of Z. indianus in Africa, India and the Americas were significantly different (Wilks’ λ from a Multivariate Analysis of Variance, MANOVA = 0.115; P < 0.0001). Out of 108 occurrences in America, only 11 (ca 10%) were classified, by Canonical Variate Analysis scores, as belonging to its original range in Africa, whereas only 5% of the 39 occurrences in India were classified as belonging to Z. indianus’ original range. Consensus results from MAXENT, GARP and Mahalanobis distances correctly predicted only 27% of the occurrences in India and 85% of occurrences in America. Thus, all analyses showed that Zaprionus indianus quickly expanded ranges into different environments in the invaded areas, suggesting climatic niche shifts, primarily in India.     

Geographical potential of Argentine ants (Linepithema humile Mayr) in the face of global climate change

Determining the spread and potential geographical distribution of invasive species is integral to making invasion biology a predictive science. We assembled a dataset of over 1000 occurrences of the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile), one of the world's worst invasive alien species. Native to central South America, Argentine ants are now found in many Mediterranean and subtropical climates around the world. We used this dataset to assess the species' potential geographical and ecological distribution, and to examine changes in its distributional potential associated with global climate change, using techniques for ecological niche modelling. Models developed were highly predictive of the species' overall range, including both the native distributional area and invaded areas worldwide. Despite its already widespread occurrence, L. humile has potential for further spread, with tropical coastal Africa and southeast Asia apparently vulnerable to invasion. Projecting ecological niche models onto four general circulation model scenarios of future (2050s) climates provided scenarios of the species' potential for distributional expansion with warming climates: generally, the species was predicted to retract its range in tropical regions, but to expand at higher latitude areas.     

The cane toad's (Chaunus [Bufo] marinus) increasing ability to invade Australia is revealed by a dynamically updated range model

Invasive species threaten biological diversity throughout the world. Understanding the dynamics of their spread is critical to mitigating this threat. In Australia, efforts are underway to control the invasive cane toad (Chaunus [Bufo] marinus). Range models based on their native bioclimatic envelope suggest that the cane toad is nearing the end of its invasion phase. However, such models assume a conserved niche between native and invaded regions and the absence of evolution to novel habitats. Here, we develop a dynamically updated statistical model to predict the growing extent of cane toad range based on their current distribution in Australia. Results demonstrate that Australian cane toads may already have the ability to spread across an area that almost doubles their current range and that triples projections based on their native distribution. Most of the expansion in suitable habitat area has occurred in the last decade and in regions characterized by high temperatures. Increasing use of extreme habitats may indicate that novel ecological conditions have facilitated a broader realized niche or that toad populations at the invasion front have evolved greater tolerance to extreme abiotic conditions. Rapid evolution to novel habitats combined with ecological release from native enemies may explain why some species become highly successful global invaders. Predicting species ranges following invasion or climate change may often require dynamically updated range models that incorporate a broader realization of niches in the absence of natural enemies and evolution in response to novel habitats.     

Global realized niche divergence in the African clawed frog Xenopus laevis

Although of crucial importance for invasion biology and impact assessments of climate change, it remains widely unknown how species cope with and adapt to environmental conditions beyond their currently realized climatic niches (i.e., those climatic conditions existing populations are exposed to). The African clawed frog Xenopus laevis, native to southern Africa, has established numerous invasive populations on multiple continents making it a pertinent model organism to study environmental niche dynamics. In this study, we assess whether the realized niches of the invasive populations in Europe, South, and North America represent subsets of the species’ realized niche in its native distributional range or if niche shifts are traceable. If shifts are traceable, we ask whether the realized niches of invasive populations still contain signatures of the niche of source populations what could indicate local adaptations. Univariate comparisons among bioclimatic conditions at native and invaded ranges revealed the invasive populations to be nested within the variable range of the native population. However, at the same time, invasive populations are well differentiated in multidimensional niche space as quantified via n‐dimensional hypervolumes. The most deviant invasive population are those from Europe. Our results suggest varying degrees of realized niche shifts, which are mainly driven by temperature related variables. The crosswise projection of the hypervolumes that were trained in invaded ranges revealed the south‐western Cape region as likely area of origin for all invasive populations, which is largely congruent with DNA sequence data and suggests a gradual exploration of novel climate space in invasive populations.     

What is the potential of spread in invasive bryophytes?

Although the number of invasive bryophytes is much lower than that of higher plants, they threaten habitats that are often species rich and of high conservation relevance. Their potential of spread has, however, never been determined. Here, we assess whether the three most invasive bryophyte species shifted their niche during the invasion process and whether the extent of the study area defined to calibrate the model (geographic background, GB) affects model transferability. We then determine whether ecological niche models (ENMs) developed in their native range can be projected in other areas to assess their invasive potential. The macroclimatic niches of Campylopus introflexus, Orthodontium lineare and Lophocolea semiteres were compared in their native range (Southern Hemisphere) and in their invasion range (Northern Hemisphere) using ordination techniques. ENMs from an ensemble model were calibrated in the native range and projected onto the Northern Hemisphere using different GBs. No evidence for niche expansion in the invaded range was found and the species occur in the invaded range under climate conditions that are similar to those in the native range. The performance of the models to predict occurrences in the invaded range increased with the extent of the GB. The potential range of all species included entire regions on continents where they are still absent. The expansion of the investigated species appears to be constrained by climate conditions that are similar to those currently prevailing in their native range, which is consistent with our failure to demonstrate macroclimatic niche shift in the invaded range. The use of large GBs is recommended in such vagile organisms with large, disjunct distributions. The models indicated that invasive bryophyte species might become a threat in central and eastern Europe, North America and eastern Asia if accidentally introduced or naturally dispersed.     

Evidence of niche shift and global invasion potential of the Tawny Crazy ant,Nylanderia fulva

Analysis of an invasive species' niche shift between native and introduced ranges, along with potential distribution maps, can provide valuable information about its invasive potential. The tawny crazy ant, Nylanderia fulva, is a rapidly emerging and economically important invasive species in the southern United States. It is originally from east‐central South America and has also invaded Colombia and the Caribbean Islands. Our objectives were to generate a global potential distribution map for N. fulva, identify important climatic drivers associated with its current distribution, and test whether N. fulva's realized climatic niche has shifted across its invasive range. We used MaxEnt niche model to map the potential distribution of N. fulva using its native and invaded range occurrences and climatic variables. We used principal component analysis methods for investigating potential shifts in the realized climatic niche of N. fulva during invasion. We found strong evidence for a shift in the realized climatic niche of N. fulva across its invasive range. Our models predicted potentially suitable habitat for N. fulva in the United States and other parts of the world. Our analyses suggest that the majority of observed occurrences of N. fulva in the United States represent stabilizing populations. Mean diurnal range in temperature, degree days at ≥10°C, and precipitation of driest quarter were the most important variables associated with N. fulva distribution. The climatic niche expansion demonstrated in our study may suggest significant plasticity in the ability of N. fulva to survive in areas with diverse temperature ranges shown by its tolerance for environmental conditions in the southern United States, Caribbean Islands, and Colombia. The risk maps produced in this study can be useful in preventing N. fulva's future spread, and in managing and monitoring currently infested areas.     

Niche conservatism and spread of seaweed invasive lineages with different residence time in the Mediterranean Sea

Marine algae invasions attract a lot of interest as they are altering the structure of marine ecosystems. However, niche dynamics and risk predictions of marine invasions integrating phylogeographic structure in the analyses have not yet been investigated. In this study, we perform a comprehensive analysis of two invasive lineages of Caulerpa taxifolia with different residence time in the Mediterranean Sea for a better understanding of their invasive processes. We performed lineage-based and species-based niche models to assess the risk of invasion, the spatial overlap, and the variables delimiting the distribution of the two lineages. We also compared the effect of using different extents on niche overlap and niche shift analyses. Intraspecific models with pooled occurrences accurately found two separate regions susceptible of invasion for each invasive lineage in the Mediterranean, while species-based predictions underestimated invaded regions. The invasive lineages spread across colder coastal areas than the species. Altogether, we provide evidence that different invasive lineages of algae show dissimilar environmental responses and invasive ranges that are not detectable by species-based analyses. Moreover, niche overlap and niche shift analyses seem to depend greatly on the geographical extent used. According to the most appropriate extent (worldwide), the invaded range did not show niche shift, and thus, no evidence of a post-introduction adaptation scenario was found as both lineages invaded habitats similar to their Australian native locations. Actions to prevent further spreading of the most recent invasive lineage are needed.     

Let’s eat out,there’s crayfish for dinner: American bullfrog niche shifts inside and outside native ranges and the effect of introduced crayfish

In invasion ecology, niche width has been recognized as a crucial factor for the outcome of an invasion. A common characteristic of successful invaders seems to be a broad niche width, and their impact on native communities may increase with increasing niche size. Overall, successful invader predators are predicted to shift their niche width by broadening it from native to invaded conditions. The scarcity of ecological studies examining invasive species in their native ranges prevents researchers from knowing if the prevalence of generalist invaders represents conservatism of broad native-range niches or instead niche shifts as a result of different processes acting in the invaded areas. Here we reviewed literature on trophic niche of the predatory invader American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) in both native and invaded ranges. We used statistical and graphic tools to analyse possible shifts in dietary niche width and the effect of introduced crayfish on the feeding strategy of L. catesbeianus. Globally, our results indicate that food sources used by the species differed in native and invaded sites, with a narrower trophic niche width in invaded areas. However, this pattern was disrupted by the occurrence of introduced crayfish that represents the major driver of the observed niche-width variation. Our data shed light on possible complications in interpreting and predicting patterns of biological invasions due to the interaction among species from different trophic levels that apparently disrupt general patterns that are likely bound to be idiosyncratic and complex.     

Niche shifts during the global invasion of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae), revealed by reciprocal distribution models

Aim Niche‐based distribution models are often used to predict the spread of invasive species. These models assume niche conservation during invasion, but invasive species can have different requirements from populations in their native range for many reasons, including niche evolution. I used distribution modelling to investigate niche conservatism for the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus Skuse) during its invasion of three continents. I also used this approach to predict areas at risk of invasion from propagules originating from invasive populations. Location Models were created for Southeast Asia, North and South America, and Europe. Methods I used maximum entropy (Maxent ) to create distribution models using occurrence data and 18 environmental datasets. One native model was created for Southeast Asia; this model was projected onto North America, South America and Europe. Three models were created independently for the non‐native ranges and projected onto the native range. Niche overlap between native and non‐native predictions was evaluated by comparing probability surfaces between models using real data and random models generated using a permutation approach. Results The native model failed to predict an entire region of occurrences in South America, approximately 20% of occurrences in North America and nearly all Italian occurrences of A. albopictus. Non‐native models poorly predict the native range, but predict additional areas at risk for invasion globally. Niche overlap metrics indicate that non‐native distributions are more similar to the native niche than a random prediction, but they are not equivalent. Multivariate analyses support modelled differences in niche characteristics among continents, and reveal important variables explaining these differences. Main conclusions The niche of A. albopictus has shifted on invaded continents relative to its native range (Southeast Asia). Statistical comparisons reveal that the niche for introduced distributions is not equivalent to the native niche. Furthermore, reciprocal models highlight the importance of controlling bi‐directional dispersal between native and non‐native distributions.     

The Use of Climatic Niches in Screening Procedures for Introduced Species to Evaluate Risk of Spread: A Case with the American Eastern Grey Squirrel

Species introduction represents one of the most serious threats for biodiversity. The realized climatic niche of an invasive species can be used to predict its potential distribution in new areas, providing a basis for screening procedures in the compilation of black and white lists to prevent new introductions. We tested this assertion by modeling the realized climatic niche of the Eastern grey squirrel Sciurus carolinensis. Maxent was used to develop three models: one considering only records from the native range (NRM), a second including records from native and invasive range (NIRM), a third calibrated with invasive occurrences and projected in the native range (RCM). Niche conservatism was tested considering both a niche equivalency and a niche similarity test. NRM failed to predict suitable parts of the currently invaded range in Europe, while RCM underestimated the suitability in the native range. NIRM accurately predicted both the native and invasive range. The niche equivalency hypothesis was rejected due to a significant difference between the grey squirrel’s niche in native and invasive ranges. The niche similarity test yielded no significant results. Our analyses support the hypothesis of a shift in the species’ climatic niche in the area of introductions. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) appear to be a useful tool in the compilation of black lists, allowing identifying areas vulnerable to invasions. We advise caution in the use of SDMs based only on the native range of a species for the compilation of white lists for other geographic areas, due to the significant risk of underestimating its potential invasive range.     

Climatic Niche Conservatism and Biogeographical Non-Equilibrium in Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae), an Invasive Plant in the Chilean Mediterranean Region

Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile), and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), to estimate E. californica''s potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with climatic niche conservatism but there is potential for further expansion in Chile.     

Environmental data sets matter in ecological niche modelling: an example with Solenopsis invicta and Solenopsis richteri

Aim  In response to a recent paper suggesting the failure of ecological niche models to predict between native and introduced distributional areas of fire ants ( Solenopsis invicta ), we sought to assess methodological causes of this failure.
Location  Ecological niche models were developed on the species' native distributional area in South America, and projected globally.
Methods  We developed ecological niche models based on six different environmental data sets, and compared their respective abilities to anticipate the North American invasive distributional area of the species.
Results  We show that models based on the 'bioclimatic variables' of the WorldClim data set indeed fail to predict the full invasive potential of the species, but that models based on four other data sets could predict this potential correctly.
Main conclusions  The difference in predictive abilities appears to centre on the complexity of the environmental variables involved. These results emphasize important influences of environmental data sets on the generality and ability of ecological niche models to anticipate novel phenomena, and offer a simpler explanation for the lack of predictive ability among native and invaded distributional areas than that of niche shifts.     

Competing tadpoles: Australian native frogs affect invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) in natural waterbodies

The cane toad (Rhinella marina) is one of the most successful invasive species worldwide, and has caused significant negative impacts on Australian fauna. Experimental work in the laboratory and in mesocosms has shown that tadpoles of native frogs can affect survival, size at metamorphosis and duration of larval period of cane toad tadpoles. To test if these effects occur in nature, we conducted a field experiment using two temporary ponds where we set up enclosures with tadpoles of native green tree frogs (Litoria caerulea) and cane toads in treatments with a range of densities and combinations. The presence of green tree frog tadpoles significantly decreased the growth rate of toad tadpoles and increased the duration of their larval period in both ponds; in one pond, frog tadpoles also significantly reduced the body length and mass of metamorph toads. Toad tadpoles did not have any significant negative effects on green tree frog tadpoles, but there was strong intraspecific competition within the latter species: increased frog tadpole density resulted in increased larval period and reduced survival, growth rate and size at metamorphosis for frogs at one or both ponds. Our results are encouraging for the possibility of using native frogs as one component of an integrated approach to the biological control of cane toads.     

Ecological Niche Transferability Using Invasive Species as a Case Study

Species distribution modeling is widely applied to predict invasive species distributions and species range shifts under climate change. Accurate predictions depend upon meeting the assumption that ecological niches are conserved, i.e., spatially or temporally transferable. Here we present a multi-taxon comparative analysis of niche conservatism using biological invasion events well documented in natural history museum collections. Our goal is to assess spatial transferability of the climatic niche of a range of noxious terrestrial invasive species using two complementary approaches. First we compare species’ native versus invasive ranges in environmental space using two distinct methods, Principal Components Analysis and Mahalanobis distance. Second we compare species’ native versus invaded ranges in geographic space as estimated using the species distribution modeling technique Maxent and the comparative index Hellinger’s I. We find that species exhibit a range of responses, from almost complete transferability, in which the invaded niches completely overlap with the native niches, to a complete dissociation between native and invaded ranges. Intermediate responses included expansion of dimension attributable to either temperature or precipitation derived variables, as well as niche expansion in multiple dimensions. We conclude that the ecological niche in the native range is generally a poor predictor of invaded range and, by analogy, the ecological niche may be a poor predictor of range shifts under climate change. We suggest that assessing dimensions of niche transferability prior to standard species distribution modeling may improve the understanding of species’ dynamics in the invaded range.     

Cryptic niche conservatism among evolutionary lineages of an invasive lizard

Aim There is increasing evidence that the quality and breadth of ecological niches vary among individuals, populations, evolutionary lineages and therefore also across the range of a species. Sufficient knowledge about niche divergence among clades might thus be crucial for predicting the invasion potential of species. We tested for the first time whether evolutionary lineages of an invasive species vary in their climate niches and invasive potential. Furthermore, we tested whether lineage‐specific models show a better performance than combined models. Location Europe. Methods We used species distribution models (SDMs) based on climatic information at native and invasive ranges to test for intra‐specific niche divergence among mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) clades of the invasive wall lizard Podarcis muralis. Using DNA barcoding, we assigned 77 invasive populations in Central Europe to eight geographically distinct evolutionary lineages. Niche similarity among lineages was assessed and the predictive power of a combination of clade‐specific SDMs was compared with a combined SDM using the pooled records of all lineages. Results We recorded eight different invasive mtDNA clades in Central Europe. The analysed clades had rather similar realized niches in their native and invasive ranges, whereas inter‐clade niche differentiation was comparatively strong. However, we found only a weak correlation between geographic origin (i.e. mtDNA clade) and invasive occurrences. Clades with narrow realized niches still became successful invaders far outside their native range, most probably due to broader fundamental niches. The combined model using data for all invasive lineages achieved a much better prediction of the invasive potential. Conclusions Our results indicate that the observed niche differentiation among evolutionary lineages is mainly driven by niche realization and not by differences in the fundamental niches. Such cryptic niche conservatism might hamper the success of clade‐specific niche modelling. Cryptic niche conservatism may in general explain the invasion success of species in areas with apparently unsuitable climate.     

Niche dynamics of two cryptic <Emphasis Type="Italic">Prosopis</Emphasis> invading South American drylands

Whether or not species track native climatic conditions during invasions (i.e., climate match hypothesis) is fundamental to understand and prevent potential impacts of invasive species. Recent empirical work suggests that climatic mismatches between native and invasive ranges are pervasive. Whether these differences are due to adaptation to new climatic spaces in the invasive range or due to partial filling of the potential climatic space are still subject to debate. Here, we analyze climatic niche dynamics associated with the invasion of the two most common invasive plants in Brazilian semi-arid areas, Prosopis juliflora and Prosopis pallida. These species have been simultaneously introduced in the region, which creates a unique opportunity to compare their niche dynamics during invasion. Given that P. juliflora have a much wider native range size, we expect these species would present different dispersal potentials, which might translate into different unfilling levels. Using an ordination method with kernel smoother and null models, we contrasted climate spaces occupied by each species in both native and invasive ranges. We further used ecological niche models (ENMs) to compare reciprocal predictions of potentially suitable areas. Against our expectation based on differences in native range sizes, climatic niches of P. juliflora and P. pallida overlapped greatly, both in their native and invasive ranges. Our results support niche conservatism during the invasion process. Climatic mismatches among native and invaded ranges were exclusively attributed to unfilling of native climates in the invasive range. Both species showed similar unfilling levels. Likewise, ENMs predicted regions not yet occupied in the invasive range, revealing a potential for further expansion. We discuss colonization time lag and founder effect as potential mechanisms that may have prevented these species to fully occupy their native niches in the invasive range.