A dynamic global equilibrium in carnivoran diversification over 20 million years

The ecological and evolutionary processes leading to present-day biological diversity can be inferred by reconstructing the phylogeny of living organisms, and then modelling potential processes that could have produced this genealogy. A more direct approach is to estimate past processes from the fossil record. The Carnivora (Mammalia) has both substantial extant species richness and a rich fossil record. We compiled species-level data for over 10 000 fossil occurrences of nearly 1400 carnivoran species. Using this compilation, we estimated extinction, speciation and net diversification for carnivorans through the Neogene (22–2 Ma), while simultaneously modelling sampling probability. Our analyses show that caniforms (dogs, bears and relatives) have higher speciation and extinction rates than feliforms (cats, hyenas and relatives), but lower rates of net diversification. We also find that despite continual species turnover, net carnivoran diversification through the Neogene is surprisingly stable, suggesting a saturated adaptive zone, despite restructuring of the physical environment. This result is strikingly different from analyses of carnivoran diversification estimated from extant species alone. Two intervals show elevated diversification rates (13–12 Ma and 4–3 Ma), although the precise causal factors behind the two peaks in carnivoran diversification remain open questions.     

Age-specific cost of first reproduction in female southern elephant seals

When to commence breeding is a crucial life-history decision that may be the most important determinant of an individual''s lifetime reproductive output and can have major consequences on population dynamics. The age at which individuals first reproduce is an important factor influencing the intensity of potential costs (e.g. reduced survival) involved in the first breeding event. However, quantifying age-related variation in the cost of first reproduction in wild animals remains challenging because of the difficulty in reliably recording the first breeding event. Here, using a multi-event capture–recapture model that accounts for both imperfect detection and uncertainty in the breeding status on an 18-year dataset involving 6637 individuals, we estimated age and state-specific survival of female elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in the declining Macquarie Island population. We detected a clear cost of first reproduction on survival. This cost was higher for both younger first-time breeders and older first-time breeders compared with females recruiting at age four, the overall mean age at first reproduction. Neither earlier primiparity nor delaying primiparity appear to confer any evolutionary advantage, rather the optimal strategy seems to be to start breeding at a single age, 4 years.     

Breeding phenology and winter activity predict subsequent breeding success in a trans-global migratory seabird

Inter-seasonal events are believed to connect and affect reproductive performance (RP) in animals. However, much remains unknown about such carry-over effects (COEs), in particular how behaviour patterns during highly mobile life-history stages, such as migration, affect RP. To address this question, we measured at-sea behaviour in a long-lived migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater (Puffinus puffinus) and obtained data for individual migration cycles over 5 years, by tracking with geolocator/immersion loggers, along with 6 years of RP data. We found that individual breeding and non-breeding phenology correlated with subsequent RP, with birds hyperactive during winter more likely to fail to reproduce. Furthermore, parental investment during one year influenced breeding success during the next, a COE reflecting the trade-off between current and future RP. Our results suggest that different life-history stages interact to influence RP in the next breeding season, so that behaviour patterns during winter may be important determinants of variation in subsequent fitness among individuals.     

Statistical ecology comes of age

The desire to predict the consequences of global environmental change has been the driver towards more realistic models embracing the variability and uncertainties inherent in ecology. Statistical ecology has gelled over the past decade as a discipline that moves away from describing patterns towards modelling the ecological processes that generate these patterns. Following the fourth International Statistical Ecology Conference (1–4 July 2014) in Montpellier, France, we analyse current trends in statistical ecology. Important advances in the analysis of individual movement, and in the modelling of population dynamics and species distributions, are made possible by the increasing use of hierarchical and hidden process models. Exciting research perspectives include the development of methods to interpret citizen science data and of efficient, flexible computational algorithms for model fitting. Statistical ecology has come of age: it now provides a general and mathematically rigorous framework linking ecological theory and empirical data.     

Cost of autotomy drives ontogenetic switching of anti-predator mechanisms under developmental constraints in a land snail

Autotomy of body parts offers various prey animals immediate benefits of survival in compensation for considerable costs. I found that a land snail Satsuma caliginosa of populations coexisting with a snail-eating snake Pareas iwasakii survived the snake predation by autotomizing its foot, whereas those out of the snake range rarely survived. Regeneration of a lost foot completed in a few weeks but imposed a delay of shell growth. Imprints of autotomy were found in greater than 10 per cent of S. caliginosa in the snake range but in only less than 1 per cent out of it, simultaneously demonstrating intense predation by the snakes and high efficiency of autotomy for surviving snake predation in the wild. However, in experiments, mature S. caliginosa performed autotomy less frequently. Instead of the costly autotomy, they can use defensive denticles on the inside of their shell apertures. Owing to the constraints from the additive growth of shells, most pulmonate snails can produce these denticles only when they have fully grown up. Thus, this developmental constraint limits the availability of the modified aperture, resulting in ontogenetic switching of the alternative defences. This study illustrates how costs of adaptation operate in the evolution of life-history strategies under developmental constraints     

Selection analysis on the rapid evolution of a secondary sexual trait

Evolutionary analyses of population translocations (experimental or accidental) have been important in demonstrating speed of evolution because they subject organisms to abrupt environmental changes that create an episode of selection. However, the strength of selection in such studies is rarely measured, limiting our understanding of the evolutionary process. This contrasts with long-term, mark–recapture studies of unmanipulated populations that measure selection directly, yet rarely reveal evolutionary change. Here, we present a study of experimental evolution of male colour in Trinidadian guppies where we tracked both evolutionary change and individual-based measures of selection. Guppies were translocated from a predator-rich to a low-predation environment within the same stream system. We used a combination of common garden experiments and monthly sampling of individuals to measure the phenotypic and genetic divergence of male coloration between ancestral and derived fish. Results show rapid evolutionary increases in orange coloration in both populations (1 year or three generations), replicating the results of previous studies. Unlike previous studies, we linked this evolution to an individual-based analysis of selection. By quantifying individual reproductive success and survival, we show, for the first time, that males with more orange and black pigment have higher reproductive success, but males with more black pigment also have higher risk of mortality. The net effect of selection is thus an advantage of orange but not black coloration, as reflected in the evolutionary response. This highlights the importance of considering all components of fitness when understanding the evolution of sexually selected traits in the wild.     

Inferring patterns of influenza transmission in swine from multiple streams of surveillance data

Swine populations are known to be an important source of new human strains of influenza A, including those responsible for global pandemics. Yet our knowledge of the epidemiology of influenza in swine is dismayingly poor, as highlighted by the emergence of the 2009 pandemic strain and the paucity of data describing its origins. Here, we analyse a unique dataset arising from surveillance of swine influenza at a Hong Kong abattoir from 1998 to 2010. We introduce a state–space model that estimates disease exposure histories by joint inference from multiple modes of surveillance, integrating both virological and serological data. We find that an observed decrease in virus isolation rates is not due to a reduction in the regional prevalence of influenza. Instead, a more likely explanation is increased infection of swine in production farms, creating greater immunity to disease early in life. Consistent with this, we find that the weekly risk of exposure on farms equals or exceeds the exposure risk during transport to slaughter. We discuss potential causes for these patterns, including competition between influenza strains and shifts in the Chinese pork industry, and suggest opportunities to improve knowledge and reduce prevalence of influenza in the region.     

Timing and route of migration of mature female blue crabs in a tidal estuary

Information on migration patterns is critical to using no-take migratory corridors and marine reserves to protect the spawning stock of commercially exploited species. Both active and passive acoustic tracking methods quantified movement of commercially and ecologically important blue crabs in the White Oak River estuary, NC, USA. We targeted post-mating female crabs migrating down-estuary to oceanic spawning grounds. Crabs travelled approximately 14.1 km mainly in deeper channels and over 12–26 days from mating areas to spawning grounds. No crabs were detected migrating down-estuary in the autumn and only 30% were detected migrating down-estuary in spring. None of the crabs detected near spawning grounds were detected or recaptured back up-estuary, suggesting that they either (i) do not return to the estuary after a one to two week period in the spawning area or (ii) were captured by fishermen. The results from this study demonstrate that (1) acoustic transmitters coupled with passive acoustic receivers provided reliable and valuable data on migration patterns of mature female blue crabs and (2) mature female blue crabs are capable of migrating primarily within deep channels to spawning grounds shortly after insemination.     

Paternal but not maternal age influences early-life performance of offspring in a long-lived seabird

Variability in demographic traits between individuals within populations has profound implications for both evolutionary processes and population dynamics. Parental effects as a source of non-genetic inheritance are important processes to consider to understand the causes of individual variation. In iteroparous species, parental age is known to influence strongly reproductive success and offspring quality, but consequences on an offspring fitness component after independence are much less studied. Based on 37 years longitudinal monitoring of a long-lived seabird, the wandering albatross, we investigate delayed effects of parental age on offspring fitness components. We provide evidence that parental age influences offspring performance beyond the age of independence. By distinguishing maternal and paternal age effects, we demonstrate that paternal age, but not maternal age, impacts negatively post-fledging offspring performance.