Calibration of a complex hydro-ecological model through Approximate Bayesian Computation and Random Forest combined with sensitivity analysis

An automated calibration method is proposed and applied to the complex hydro-ecological model Delft3D-BLOOM which is calibrated from monitoring data of the lake Champs-sur-Marne, a small shallow urban lake in the Paris region (France). This method (ABC-RF-SA) combines Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) with the machine learning algorithm Random Forest (RF) and a Sensitivity Analysis (SA) of the model parameters. Three target variables are used (total chlorophyll, cyanobacteria and dissolved oxygen concentration) to calibrate 133 parameters. ABC-RF-SA is first applied on a set of simulated observations to validate the methodology. It is then applied on a real set of high-frequency observations recorded during about two weeks on the lake Champs-sur-Marne. The methodology is also compared to standard ABC and ABC-RF formulations. Only ABC-RF-SA allowed the model to reproduce the observed biogeochemical dynamics. The coupling of ABC with RF and SA thus appears crucial for its application to complex hydro-ecological models.     

Analysis of Binary Multivariate Longitudinal Data via 2-Dimensional Orbits: An Application to the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa

We analyse demographic longitudinal survey data of South African (SA) and Mozambican (MOZ) rural households from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System in South Africa. In particular, we determine whether absolute poverty status (APS) is associated with selected household variables pertaining to socio-economic determination, namely household head age, household size, cumulative death, adults to minor ratio, and influx. For comparative purposes, households are classified according to household head nationality (SA or MOZ) and APS (rich or poor). The longitudinal data of each of the four subpopulations (SA rich, SA poor, MOZ rich, and MOZ poor) is a five-dimensional space defined by binary variables (questions), subjects, and time. We use the orbit method to represent binary multivariate longitudinal data (BMLD) of each household as a two-dimensional orbit and to visualise dynamics and behaviour of the population. At each time step, a point (x, y) from the orbit of a household corresponds to the observation of the household, where x is a binary sequence of responses and y is an ordering of variables. The ordering of variables is dynamically rearranged such that clusters and holes associated to least and frequently changing variables in the state space respectively, are exposed. Analysis of orbits reveals information of change at both individual- and population-level, change patterns in the data, capacity of states in the state space, and density of state transitions in the orbits. Analysis of household orbits of the four subpopulations show association between (i) households headed by older adults and rich households, (ii) large household size and poor households, and (iii) households with more minors than adults and poor households. Our results are compared to other methods of BMLD analysis.     

Thermodynamics-based Metabolite Sensitivity Analysis in metabolic networks

The increasing availability of large metabolomics datasets enhances the need for computational methodologies that can organize the data in a way that can lead to the inference of meaningful relationships. Knowledge of the metabolic state of a cell and how it responds to various stimuli and extracellular conditions can offer significant insight in the regulatory functions and how to manipulate them. Constraint based methods, such as Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) and Thermodynamics-based flux analysis (TFA), are commonly used to estimate the flow of metabolites through genome-wide metabolic networks, making it possible to identify the ranges of flux values that are consistent with the studied physiological and thermodynamic conditions. However, unless key intracellular fluxes and metabolite concentrations are known, constraint-based models lead to underdetermined problem formulations. This lack of information propagates as uncertainty in the estimation of fluxes and basic reaction properties such as the determination of reaction directionalities. Therefore, knowledge of which metabolites, if measured, would contribute the most to reducing this uncertainty can significantly improve our ability to define the internal state of the cell. In the present work we combine constraint based modeling, Design of Experiments (DoE) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) into the Thermodynamics-based Metabolite Sensitivity Analysis (TMSA) method. TMSA ranks metabolites comprising a metabolic network based on their ability to constrain the gamut of possible solutions to a limited, thermodynamically consistent set of internal states. TMSA is modular and can be applied to a single reaction, a metabolic pathway or an entire metabolic network. This is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to use metabolic modeling in order to provide a significance ranking of metabolites to guide experimental measurements.     

Analysis of collagen fibril diameter distribution in connective tissues using small-angle X-ray scattering

Analysis of the diameters of collagen fibrils provides insight into the structure and physical processes occurring in the tissue. This paper describes a method for analyzing the frequency distribution of the diameters of collagen fibrils from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) patterns. Frequency values of fibril diameters were input into a mathematical model of the form factor to calculate the equatorial intensity which best fits the experimentally derived data from SAXS patterns. A minimization algorithm utilizing simulated annealing (SA) was used in the fitting procedure. The SA algorithm allowed for random sampling of the frequency values, and was run iteratively to build up an optimized frequency distribution of fibril diameters. Results were obtained for collagen samples from sheep spine ligaments. The mean fibril diameter value obtained from this data-fitting method was 73 nm+/-20 nm (S.D.). From scanning transmission electron microscopy, the mean diameter was found to be 69 nm+/-14 nm (S.D.). The good agreement between the two methods demonstrates the reliability of the SAXS method for the tissue examined. The non-destructive nature of this technique, as well as its statistical robusticity and capacity for large sampling, means that this method is both quick and effective.     

The effect of epistasis on sexually antagonistic genetic variation

There is increasing evidence of segregating sexually antagonistic (SA) genetic variation for fitness in laboratory and wild populations, yet the conditions for the maintenance of such variation can be restrictive. Epistatic interactions between genes can contribute to the maintenance of genetic variance in fitness and we suggest that epistasis between SA genes should be pervasive. Here, we explore its effect on SA genetic variation in fitness using a two locus model with negative epistasis. Our results demonstrate that epistasis often increases the parameter space showing polymorphism for SA loci. This is because selection in one locus is affected by allele frequencies at the other, which can act to balance net selection in males and females. Increased linkage between SA loci had more marginal effects. We also show that under some conditions, large portions of the parameter space evolve to a state where male benefit alleles are fixed at one locus and female benefit alleles at the other. This novel effect of epistasis on SA loci, which we term the ‘equity effect’, may have important effects on population differentiation and may contribute to speciation. More generally, these results support the suggestion that epistasis contributes to population divergence.     

Accessory male investment can undermine the evolutionary stability of simultaneous hermaphroditism

Sex allocation (SA) models are traditionally based on the implicit assumption that hermaphroditism must meet criteria that make it stable against transition to dioecy. This, however, puts serious constraints on the adaptive values that SA can attain. A transition to gonochorism may, however, be impossible in many systems and therefore realized SA in hermaphrodites may not be limited by conditions that guarantee stability against dioecy. We here relax these conditions and explore how sexual selection on male accessory investments (e.g. a penis) that offer a paternity benefit affects the evolutionary stable strategy SA in outcrossing, simultaneous hermaphrodites. Across much of the parameter space, our model predicts male allocations well above 50 per cent. These predictions can help to explain apparently ‘maladaptive’ hermaphrodite systems.     

Upregulation of decidual P-selectin expression is associated with an increased number of Th1 cell populations in patients suffering from spontaneous abortions

A multicascade of leukocyte-endothelial cell interactions is involved in the trafficking of inflammatory lymphocytes into tissue. The primary contact between leukocytes and endothelium is mediated by selectins. Ligands for P-Selectin are preferentially expressed on Th1 cells and thereby allow migration of these inflammatory cells through the vessel wall. Since a peripheral and local Th1-type cytokine profile is present in spontaneous human abortion (SA), opposed by a Th2 dominant situation in normal pregnancies (NP), we investigated (1) the phenotype of peripheral Th1 cells by flow cytometry, as well as the Th1-type cytokine levels by ELISA, (2) the decidual expression of P- and E-Selectin by immunohistochemistry (IHC), and (3) the phenotype of decidual immunocompetent cells by IHC in patients with NP or SA. We observed enhanced production of IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha in CD8(+), CD3(+), and CD56(+) blood cells, as well as an increase in the number of CCR5(+) cells in patients suffering from SA compared to those with NP. No difference was detectable with respect to the serum levels of the two cytokines. Using IHC methods, we observed increased staining intensity of P-Selectin(+) vessels in samples of SA patients. E-Selectin was only weakly expressed in decidual endothelial cells, with no difference between NP and SA. In SA samples, E-Selectin(+) stromal cells were exclusively present. We further detected increased numbers of decidual CD8(+), CD3(+), CCR5(+), and CD56(+) cells in SA patients. We propose that Th1 lymphocyte migration into decidua is enhanced in SA due to upregulated P-Selectin expression in decidual vessels. This increase of Th1-producing lymphocytes might be involved in the rejection of trophoblasts.     

Chemophenetics of Solanum based on steroidal alkaloids

Steroidal alkaloids (SA) are nitrogen-containing specialized metabolites applied as chemophenetic markers in Solanum L. (Solanaceae). Over time, Solanum has been the focus of several molecular phylogenetic studies in an attempt to resolve its infrageneric classification and the relationship among species belonging to this genus. Here we aimed to study SA chemodiversity to identify chemical patterns and to perform a chemophenetic characterization of the Solanum genus and its major clades. Chemical literature data about Solanum steroidal alkaloids was assessed and structural variability of this biogenetic group was used in the chemometric analysis, by applying a Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis. The results demonstrate that the SA chemodiversity in Solanum is represented by the occurrence of nine SA subtypes. The biosynthetic predominance of the spirosolane-type in Solanum clades was observed, except for the preference of the Potato clade in producing the solanidane-type. The Geminata clade displayed low SA glycosylation patterns, containing 3-oxy groups. In addition, low SA production in the Cyphomandra clade was observed. Chemical similarities between the Archaesolanum, Dulcamaroid and Morelloid clades were observed by chemometric analyses. In sum, chemophenetics was proven a reliable and additional tool to describe the array of specialized metabolites in Solanum clades, showing chemical information suitable to corroborate molecular phylogenetic studies.     

Evolutionary history of a mosquito endosymbiont revealed through mitochondrial hitchhiking

Due to cytoplasmic inheritance, spread of maternally inherited Wolbachia symbionts can result in reduction of mitochondrial variation in populations. We examined sequence diversity of the mitochondrial NADH dehydrogenase subunit 4 (ND4) gene in Wolbachia-infected (South Africa (SA), California and Thailand) and uninfected (SA) Culex pipiens complex populations. In total, we identified 12 haplotypes (A-L). In infected populations, 99% of individuals had haplotype K. In the uninfected SA population, 11 haplotypes were present, including K. Nuclear allozyme diversity was similar between infected and uninfected SA populations. Analysis of nuclear DNA sequences suggested that haplotype K presence in uninfected SA Cx. pipiens was probably due to a shared ancestral polymorphism rather than hybrid introgression. These data indicate that Wolbachia spread has resulted in drastic reduction of mitochondrial variability in widely separated Cx. pipiens complex populations. In contrast, the uninfected SA population is probably a cryptic species where Wolbachia introgression has been prevented by reproductive isolation, maintaining ancestral levels of mitochondrial diversity. Molecular clock analyses suggest that the Wolbachia sweep occurred within the last 47000 years. The effect of Wolbachia on mitochondrial dynamics can provide insight on the potential for Wolbachia to spread transgenes into mosquito populations to control vector-borne diseases.     

生态模型的灵敏度分析

灵敏度分析用于定性或定量地评价模型参数误差对模型结果产生的影响,是模型参数化过程和模型校正过程中的有用工具,具有重要的生态学意义．灵敏度分析包括局部灵敏度分析和全局灵敏度分析．局部灵敏度分析只检验单个参数的变化对模型结果的影响程度;全局灵敏度分析则检验多个参数的变化对模型运行结果总的影响,并分析每一个参数及其参数之间相互作用对模型结果的影响．目前,在对生态模型的灵敏度分析中,越来越倾向于使用全局灵敏度分析的方法．但国内仍多采用局部灵敏度分析方法,很少采用全局灵敏度分析方法．文中详细论述了局部灵敏分析和全局灵敏度分析的主要方法(一次变换法、多元回归法、Morris法、Sobol’法、傅里叶幅度灵敏度检验法和傅里叶幅度灵敏度检验扩展法),希望能为国内生态模型的发展提供一个比较完善的灵敏度分析方法库．结合国内外的灵敏度分析发展现状,指出联合灵敏度研究、灵敏度共性研究及空间直观景观模型的灵敏度分析将为生态模型灵敏度分析研究中的热点和难点．     

Thermal and sodium dodecylsulfate induced transitions of streptavidin

The strong specific binding of streptavidin (SA) to biotin is utilized in numerous biotechnological applications. The SA tetramer is also known to exhibit significant stability, even in the presence of sodium dodecylsulfate (SDS). Despite its importance, relatively little is known about the nature of the thermal denaturation pathway for SA. This work uses a homogeneous SA preparation to expand on the data of previous literature reports, leading to the proposal of a model for temperature induced structural changes in SA. Temperature dependent data were obtained by SDS and native polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and fluorescence and ultraviolet (UV)-visible spectroscopy in the presence and absence of SDS. In addition to the development of this model, it is found that the major thermal transition of SA in 1% SDS is reversible. Finally, although SA exhibits significant precipitation at elevated temperatures in aqueous solution, inclusion of SDS acts to prevent SA aggregation.     

3-Hydroxy-3-phenylpropanoic acid is an intermediate in the biosynthesis of benzoic acid and salicylic acid but benzaldehyde is not

Stable-isotope-labelled (²H₆,¹⁸O) 3-hydroxy-3-phenylpropanoic acid, a putative intermediate in the biosynthesis of benzoic acid (BA) and salicylic acid (SA) from cinnamic acid, has been synthesized and administered to cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) and Nicotiana attenuata (Torrey). Analysis of the products by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry revealed incorporation of labelling into BA and SA, but not into benzaldehyde. In a separate experiment, 3-hydroxy- 3-phenylpropanoic acid was found to be a metabolite of phenylalanine, itself the primary metabolic precursor of BA and SA. These data suggest that cinnamic acid chain shortening is probably achieved by β-oxidation, and that the proposed “non-oxidative” pathway of side-chain degradation does not function in the biosynthesis of BA and SA, in cucumber and N. attenuata. Received: 10 February 2000 / Accepted: 18 April 2000     

Contribution of Fluorophore Dynamics and Solvation to Resonant Energy Transfer in Protein-DNA Complexes: A Molecular-Dynamics Study

In Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments, extracting accurate structural information about macromolecules depends on knowing the positions and orientations of donor and acceptor fluorophores. Several approaches have been employed to reduce uncertainties in quantitative FRET distance measurements. Fluorophore-position distributions can be estimated by surface accessibility (SA) calculations, which compute the region of space explored by the fluorophore within a static macromolecular structure. However, SA models generally do not take fluorophore shape, dye transition-moment orientation, or dye-specific chemical interactions into account. We present a detailed molecular-dynamics (MD) treatment of fluorophore dynamics for an ATTO donor/acceptor dye pair and specifically consider as case studies dye-labeled protein-DNA intermediates in Cre site-specific recombination. We carried out MD simulations in both an aqueous solution and glycerol/water mixtures to assess the effects of experimental solvent systems on dye dynamics. Our results unequivocally show that MD simulations capture solvent effects and dye-dye interactions that can dramatically affect energy transfer efficiency. We also show that results from SA models and MD simulations strongly diverge in cases where donor and acceptor fluorophores are in close proximity. Although atomistic simulations are computationally more expensive than SA models, explicit MD studies are likely to give more realistic results in both homogeneous and mixed solvents. Our study underscores the model-dependent nature of FRET analyses, but also provides a starting point to develop more realistic in silico approaches for obtaining experimental ensemble and single-molecule FRET data.     

Isolation of Asticcacaulis sp. SA7, a novel agar-degrading alphaproteobacterium

An agar-degrading bacterium, strain SA7, was isolated from plant roots cultivated in soil. Analysis of the 16S rDNA sequence showed that strain SA7 is affiliated with the genus Asticcacaulis. Strain SA7 produced extracellular agarase, and grew utilizing agar in the culture medium as sole carbon source. Zymogram analysis showed that strain SA7 extracellularly secreted single agarase protein (about 70 kDa).     

Propagation through electrically coupled cells. How a small SA node drives a large atrium.

Each normal cardiac cycle is started by an action potential that is initiated in the sino-atrial (SA) node by automaticity of the SA nodal cells. This action potential then propagates from the SA node into the surrounding atrial cells. We have done numerical simulations of electrically coupled cells to understand how a small SA node can be spontaneously active and yet be sufficiently electrically coupled to the surrounding quiescent atrial cells to initiate an action potential in the atrial cells. Our results with a simple model of two coupled cells and a more complex model of a two-dimensional sheet of cells suggest that some degree of electrical uncoupling of the cells within the SA node may be an essential design feature of the normal SA-atrial system.     

Contribution of Fluorophore Dynamics and Solvation to Resonant Energy Transfer in Protein-DNA Complexes: A Molecular-Dynamics Study

In Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) experiments, extracting accurate structural information about macromolecules depends on knowing the positions and orientations of donor and acceptor fluorophores. Several approaches have been employed to reduce uncertainties in quantitative FRET distance measurements. Fluorophore-position distributions can be estimated by surface accessibility (SA) calculations, which compute the region of space explored by the fluorophore within a static macromolecular structure. However, SA models generally do not take fluorophore shape, dye transition-moment orientation, or dye-specific chemical interactions into account. We present a detailed molecular-dynamics (MD) treatment of fluorophore dynamics for an ATTO donor/acceptor dye pair and specifically consider as case studies dye-labeled protein-DNA intermediates in Cre site-specific recombination. We carried out MD simulations in both an aqueous solution and glycerol/water mixtures to assess the effects of experimental solvent systems on dye dynamics. Our results unequivocally show that MD simulations capture solvent effects and dye-dye interactions that can dramatically affect energy transfer efficiency. We also show that results from SA models and MD simulations strongly diverge in cases where donor and acceptor fluorophores are in close proximity. Although atomistic simulations are computationally more expensive than SA models, explicit MD studies are likely to give more realistic results in both homogeneous and mixed solvents. Our study underscores the model-dependent nature of FRET analyses, but also provides a starting point to develop more realistic in silico approaches for obtaining experimental ensemble and single-molecule FRET data.     

Protein induction process and stochastic nature of cell commitment to proliferation and differentiation

A differential equation model is constructed to describe competition between trees with overlapping crowns. The model is based upon Thornley's mechanistic plant growth model which divides plant biomass into three components corresponding to storage material, degradable structural tissue and non-degradable structural tissue. The available incident radiation is partitioned among trees according to their sizes, with large trees intercepting more light than smaller neighbours. Analysis of the dynamic stability of the model reveals that suppression occurs over a wide range of parameter space. Typically, as canopy overlap increases and competition for light becomes intense, some trees are suppressed by their neighbours. The suppression-dominance phenomenon occurs even in stands of trees with identical parameter values. Model simulations are compared with data on the growth of Pinus radiata.     

How many trimers? Modeling influenza virus fusion yields a minimum aggregate size of six trimers, three of which are fusogenic

Conflicting reports in leading journals have indicated the minimum number of influenza hemagglutinin (HA) trimers required for fusion to be between one and eight. Interestingly, the data in these reports are either almost identical, or can be transformed to be directly comparable. Different statistical or phenomenological models, however, were used to analyze these data, resulting in the varied interpretations. In an attempt to resolve this contradiction, we use PABM, a brane calculus we recently introduced, enabling an algorithmic systems biology approach that allows the problem to be modeled in a manner following a biological logic. Since a scalable PABM executor is still under development, we sufficiently simplified the fusion model and analyzed it using the model checker, PRISM. We validated the model against older HA-expressing cell-to-cell fusion data using the same parameters with the exception of three, namely HA and sialic acid (SA) surface densities and the aggregation rate, which were expected to be different as a result of the difference in the experimental setup. Results are consistent with the interpretation that a minimum aggregate size of six HA trimers, of which three undergo a conformational change to become fusogenic, is required for fusion. Of these three, two are free, while one is bound. Finally, we determined the effects of varying the SA surface density and showed that only a limited range of densities permit fusion. Our results demonstrate the potential of modeling in providing more precise interpretations of data.     

Production of 6-methylsalicylic acid by expression of a fungal polyketide synthase activates disease resistance in tobacco

Salicylic acid (SA) has been shown to act as a signal molecule that is produced by many plants subsequent to the recognition of potentially pathogenic microbes. Increases in levels of SA often trigger the activation of plant defenses and can result in increased resistance to subsequent challenge by pathogens. We observed that the polyketide 6-methylsalicylic acid (6-MeSA), a compound that apparently is not endogenous to tobacco, can mimic SA. Tobacco leaves treated with 6-MeSA show enhanced accumulation of the pathogenesis-related (PR) proteins PR1, beta-1,3-glucanase, and chitinase and also develop increased resistance to tobacco mosaic virus. We transformed tobacco with 6msas, the 6-methylsalicylic acid synthase (6MSAS) gene from Penicillium patulum, to generate plants that constitutively accumulate 6-MeSA. Analysis of primary transformants and the first generation progeny of 6MSAS tobacco revealed that plants can be engineered to accumulate significant amounts of 6-MeSA as a conjugate. Levels of total 6-MeSA increased with plant age. Increased 6-MeSA accumulation correlated with increased levels of PR1 and chitinase proteins and resulted in enhanced resistance of NN genotype 6MSAS tobacco to tobacco mosaic virus. Our results demonstrate that a multistep biosynthetic pathway can be engineered into plants using a single fungal polyketide synthase gene. The functional expression of 6msas can be used to activate disease resistance pathways that normally are induced by SA.