Population Assessment of Future Trajectories in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality

Background

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends.

Methods and findings

The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040.

Conclusions

The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.     

Modelling Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality to 2030 in the British Isles

Objective

Despite rapid declines over the last two decades, coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates in the British Isles are still amongst the highest in Europe. This study uses a modelling approach to compare the potential impact of future risk factor scenarios relating to smoking and physical activity levels, dietary salt and saturated fat intakes on future CHD mortality in three countries: Northern Ireland (NI), Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Scotland.

Methods

CHD mortality models previously developed and validated in each country were extended to predict potential reductions in CHD mortality from 2010 (baseline year) to 2030. Risk factor trends data from recent surveys at baseline were used to model alternative future risk factor scenarios: Absolute decreases in (i) smoking prevalence and (ii) physical inactivity rates of up to 15% by 2030; relative decreases in (iii) dietary salt intake of up to 30% by 2030 and (iv) dietary saturated fat of up to 6% by 2030. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were then conducted.

Results

Projected populations in 2030 were 1.3, 3.4 and 3.9 million in NI, RoI and Scotland respectively (adults aged 25–84). In 2030: assuming recent declining mortality trends continue: 15% absolute reductions in smoking could decrease CHD deaths by 5.8–7.2%. 15% absolute reductions in physical inactivity levels could decrease CHD deaths by 3.1–3.6%. Relative reductions in salt intake of 30% could decrease CHD deaths by 5.2–5.6% and a 6% reduction in saturated fat intake might decrease CHD deaths by some 7.8–9.0%. These projections remained stable under a wide range of sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

Feasible reductions in four cardiovascular risk factors (already achieved elsewhere) could substantially reduce future coronary deaths. More aggressive polices are therefore needed in the British Isles to control tobacco, promote healthy food and increase physical activity.     

Predictors of Operative Mortality for Coronary Bypass Grafting in Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease

Predictors for operative mortality (OM) were studied in 172 consecutive patients (pts) undergoing coronary artery grafts (CAG) for angina pectoris.Seventy eight pts had Class IV angina; of the 147 patients given propranolol, 41 were gradually withdrawn from propranolol and finally discontinued 24 hours before surgery, and 106 were abruptly withdrawn from propranolol 24 hours before CAG; 20 pts had left main coronary disease; 156 pts had cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) time shorter than 20 minutes, and 16 pts had a CPB longer than 120 minutes.The operative mortality was 5.2% (9/172) for the entire group. Class IV angina (OM 7%), abrupt propranolol withdrawal (OM 6.6%), left main coronary artery disease (OM 25%), and CPB longer than 120 minutes (OM 50%), all significantly increased OM. These variables were interdependent, however, as many pts belonged to several predictor categories, combinations of predictors were examined, in order to more accurately predict the risk of individual pts. The combination of left main coronary artery disease and CPB longer than 120 minutes; and Class IV angina and CPB longer than 120 minutes were significantly associated with higher operative mortality.We conclude that Class IV angina, abrupt propranolol withdrawal, left main coronary artery disease and prolonged CPB are potent, interdependent predictors of OM in pts undergoing CAG. Consideration of these predictors, alone and in combination, allows effective prediction of OM for CAG in patients with stable angina pectoris.     

Hematocrit and Coronary Heart Disease

Hematocrit values of patients with acute myocardial infarction have been reported by some workers to be higher than those found in controls; this has been denied by others. In these reported studies important postural, postprandial, age and stress effects have not been considered. In the present investigation hematocrits of healthy and coronary subjects were determined under the same “standard basal” conditions, in the morning hours, fasting or after a light breakfast, and in sitting position; patients studied had no acute illness or distress. A mean hematocrit of 49.1 ± 2.4% was observed in 66 men with chronic coronary disease and of 46.8 ± 3.2% in 68 healthy controls of the same age and sex, the difference being highly significant. The increased hematocrit and plasma viscosity in coronary patients creates significantly higher whole blood viscosity than that observed in healthy controls. This hemodynamic factor may be responsible for the development of clinical symptoms of coronary heart disease and possibly of the basic vascular disease itself.     

同型半胱氨酸与冠心病

随着社会的进步以及人类生活水平的提高,冠心痛的发病率也逐年提高,目前已经成为全球死亡率最高的疾病之一,同时医学水平的不断发展也使得人们对冠心病有了更进一步的研究.近年来同型半胱氨酸越来越受到人们的关注,众多研究表明,高同型半胱氨酸血症是冠心痛的独立危险因子,可以影响冠心病的严重程度及预后.但是迄今为止,同型半胱氨酸在冠心病发病中的确切机制尚不完全明确,认为主要与血管内皮损伤、血管平滑肌细胞增殖凋亡、破坏凝血纤溶系统、影响糖、蛋白质、脂质代谢等方面有关.针对高同型半胱氨酸血症的治疗,对于改善冠心病患者的预后有一定疗效.因此,本文就同型半胱氨酸冠心痛的关系作一综述,从而为临床更好的防治冠心痛提供相关的资料.     

Quantifying Policy Options for Reducing Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England: A Modelling Study

Aims

To estimate the number of coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths potentially preventable in England in 2020 comparing four risk factor change scenarios.

Methods and Results

Using 2007 as baseline, the IMPACT_SEC model was extended to estimate the potential number of CHD deaths preventable in England in 2020 by age, gender and Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007 quintiles given four risk factor change scenarios: (a) assuming recent trends will continue; (b) assuming optimal but feasible levels already achieved elsewhere; (c) an intermediate point, halfway between current and optimal levels; and (d) assuming plateauing or worsening levels, the worst case scenario. These four scenarios were compared to the baseline scenario with both risk factors and CHD mortality rates remaining at 2007 levels. This would result in approximately 97,000 CHD deaths in 2020. Assuming recent trends will continue would avert approximately 22,640 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 20,390-24,980). There would be some 39,720 (37,120-41,900) fewer deaths in 2020 with optimal risk factor levels and 22,330 fewer (19,850-24,300) in the intermediate scenario. In the worst case scenario, 16,170 additional deaths (13,880-18,420) would occur. If optimal risk factor levels were achieved, the gap in CHD rates between the most and least deprived areas would halve with falls in systolic blood pressure, physical inactivity and total cholesterol providing the largest contributions to mortality gains.

Conclusions

CHD mortality reductions of up to 45%, accompanied by significant reductions in area deprivation mortality disparities, would be possible by implementing optimal preventive policies.     

Selective Coronary Arteriography: Arteriographic Patterns in Coronary Heart Disease

The severity and distribution of coronary arteriographic abnormalities have been reviewed in 88 patients with clinical evidence of coronary heart disease who were studied by Sones'' technique. The patients were divided into four groups: myocardial infarction without angina, myocardial infarction with angina, angina with normal resting electrocardiogram, angina with abnormal resting electrocardiogram.Arteriographic abnormalities were generally diffuse throughout the coronary circulation, and at least two vessels were involved in 84 patients. Although the frequency of lesions was similar in the four groups of patients, those with previous myocardial infarction had the highest incidence of complete obstruction. Patients with angina and a normal resting electrocardiogram showed the least severe obstructive lesions. The severity of the arteriographic abnormalities was independent of the duration of clinical symptoms, and it appears that diffuse involvement of the coronary arterial tree is usually present when symptoms develop.     

The Pathology of Coronary Heart Disease

The distribution of coronary atherosclerosis in patients with ischemic heart disease is extensive, and involves at least two major coronary arteries. Thrombosis, occlusion by atheromatous debris and, infrequently, internal hemorrhage may produce final closure of the coronary artery. The anatomy of the coronary vessels, localization of occlusion, recanalization, the extent of intercoronary anastomoses and the physiological demands of the myocardium all affect the ultimate clinical expression of the basic occlusive process.     

Mortality from Congenital Heart Disease in Mexico: A Problem on the Rise

Background and Objectives

Temporal trends in mortality from congenital heart disease (CHD) vary among regions. It is therefore necessary to study this problem in each country. In Mexico, congenital anomalies were responsible for 24% of infant mortality in 2013 and CHD represented 55% of total deaths from congenital anomalies among children under 1 year of age. The objectives of this study were to analyze the trends in infant mortality from CHD in Mexico (1998 to 2013), its specific causes, age at death and associated socio-demographic factors.

Methods

Population-based study which calculated the compounded annual growth rate of death rom CHD between 1998 and 2013. Specific causes, age at which death from CHD occurred and risk factors associated with mortality were analyzed for the year 2013.

Results

Infant mortality from CHD increased 24.8% from 1998 to 2013 (114.4 to 146.4/ 100,000 live births). A total of 3,593 CHD deaths occurred in 2013; the main causes were CHD with left-to-right shunt (n = 487; 19.8/100,000 live births) and cyanotic heart disease (n = 410; 16.7/100,000). A total of 1,049 (29.2%) deaths from CHD occurred during the first week of life. Risk factors associated with mortality from CHD were, in order of magnitude: non-institutional birth, rural area, birth in a public hospital and male sex.

Conclusions

Mortality from CHD has increased in Mexico. The main causes were CHD with left-to-right shunt, which are not necessarily fatal if treated promptly. Populations vulnerable to death from CHD were identified. Approximately one-third of the CHD occurred during the first week of life. It is important to promote early diagnosis, especially for non-institutional births.