Development of Risk Score for Predicting 3-Year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes: Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study

Objective

Risk models and scores have been developed to predict incidence of type 2 diabetes in Western populations, but their performance may differ when applied to non-Western populations. We developed and validated a risk score for predicting 3-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in a Japanese population.

Methods

Participants were 37,416 men and women, aged 30 or older, who received periodic health checkup in 2008–2009 in eight companies. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥126 mg/dl, random plasma glucose ≥200 mg/dl, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥6.5%, or receiving medical treatment for diabetes. Risk scores on non-invasive and invasive models including FPG and HbA1c were developed using logistic regression in a derivation cohort and validated in the remaining cohort.

Results

The area under the curve (AUC) for the non-invasive model including age, sex, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, and smoking status was 0.717 (95% CI, 0.703–0.731). In the invasive model in which both FPG and HbA1c were added to the non-invasive model, AUC was increased to 0.893 (95% CI, 0.883–0.902). When the risk scores were applied to the validation cohort, AUCs (95% CI) for the non-invasive and invasive model were 0.734 (0.715–0.753) and 0.882 (0.868–0.895), respectively. Participants with a non-invasive score of ≥15 and invasive score of ≥19 were projected to have >20% and >50% risk, respectively, of developing type 2 diabetes within 3 years.

Conclusions

The simple risk score of the non-invasive model might be useful for predicting incident type 2 diabetes, and its predictive performance may be markedly improved by incorporating FPG and HbA1c.     

Identification and Clinical Characterization of Adult Patients with Multigenerational Diabetes Mellitus

Background

Some patients diagnosed as having type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are, instead, affected by multigenerational diabetes whose clinical characteristics are mostly undefined.

Objective

1. To identify among patients who had been previously defined as affected by T2DM those, in fact, affected by multigenerational diabetes; 2. After excluding patients carrying the most common MODY genes and mitochondrial mutations, we compared clinical features of remaining patients with those of patients with T2DM.

Methods

Among 2,583 consecutive adult patients who had been defined as affected by T2DM, we looked for those with diabetes in ≥3 consecutive generations. All probands were screened for mutations in six MODY genes (HNF4A, GCK, HNF1A, PDX1, HNF1B and NeuroD1) and for the A3243G mitochondrial mutation. After excluding patients with mutations in one of such genes, we compared clinical features of the remaining 67 patients (2.6% of the whole initial sample) affected by multigenerational “familial diabetes of the adulthood” (FDA) and of their diabetic relatives (n = 63) to those with T2DM (n = 1,028) by generalized hierarchical linear models followed by pairwise comparisons.

Results

Age, age at diagnosis, proportion of hypertension (all p<0.001), and waist circumference (p<0.05) were lower in FDA than T2DM. Nonetheless, the two groups had similar age-adjusted incidence rate of all-cause mortality.

Conclusions

Beside younger age at diagnosis, FDA patients show lower waist circumference and reduced proportion of hypertension as compared to those with T2DM; despite such reduced potential cardiovascular risk factors, FDA patients did not show a reduced mortality risk than patients with T2DM.     

Time Trends in Ischemic Stroke among Type 2 Diabetic and Non-Diabetic Patients: Analysis of the Spanish National Hospital Discharge Data (2003-2012)

Background

Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) is the most rapidly increasing risk factor for ischemic stroke. We aimed to compare trends in outcomes for ischemic stroke in people with or without diabetes in Spain between 2003 and 2012.

Methods

We selected all patients hospitalized for ischemic stroke using national hospital discharge data. We evaluated annual incident rates stratified by T2DM status. We analyzed trends in the use of diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, patient comorbidities, and in-hospital outcomes. We calculated in-hospital mortality (IHM), length of hospital stay (LOHS) and readmission rate in one month after discharge. Time trend on the incidence of hospitalization was estimated fitting Poisson regression models by sex and diabetes variables. In-hospital mortality was analyzed using logistic regression models separate for men and women. LOHS were compared with ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis when necessary.

Results

We identified a total of 423,475 discharges of patients (221,418 men and 202,057 women) admitted with ischemic stroke as primary diagnosis. Patients with T2DM accounted for 30.9% of total. The estimated incidence rates of discharges increased significantly in all groups. The incidence of hospitalization due to stroke (with ICD9 codes for stroke as main diagnosis at discharge) was higher among those with than those without diabetes in all the years studied. T2DM was positively associated with ischemic stroke with an adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 2.27 (95% CI 2.24–2.29) for men and 2.15 (95%CI 2.13–2.17) for women. Over the 10 year period LOHS decreased significantly in men and women with and without diabetes. Readmission rate remained stable in diabetic and non diabetic men (around 5%) while slightly increased in women with and without diabetes. We observed a significant increase in the use of fibrinolysis from 2002–2013. IHM was positively associated with older age in all groups, with Charlson Comorbidity Index > 3 and atrial fibrillation as risk factors. The IHM did not change significantly over time among T2DM men and women ranging from 9.25% to 10.56% and from 13.21% to 14.86%, respectively; neither did among non-diabetic women. However, in men without T2DM IHM decreased significantly over time. Diabetes was associated to higher IHM only in women (OR 1.07; 95% CI, 1.05–1.11).

Conclusions

Our national data show that incidence rate of ischemic stroke hospitalization increased significantly during the period of study (2003–2012). People with T2DM have more than double the risk of ischemic stroke after adjusting for other risk factors. Women with T2DM had poorer outcomes- IHM and readmission rates- than diabetic men. Diabetes was an independent factor for IHM only in women.     

Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Is a Risk Factor for the Development of Diabetic Nephropathy in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Background

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is prevalent in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Diabetic nephropathy (DN) is also associated with T2DM. However, little is known about the interaction between these conditions in patients with T2DM.

Objective

To examine the association between NAFLD and DN in patients with T2DM.

Methods

This retrospective study included patients seen between January 2006 and July 2014.T2DM patients were divided into two groups based on NAFLD status (with NAFLD = group A; without = group B). The cumulative incidence of DN and chronic kidney disease (CKD) staging were compared between the two groups. Liver fat content was examined in some patients. Associations among NAFLD, other factors,and DN were analyzed by the additive interaction method.

Results

Cumulative incidence of DN in patients from group A (58.58%) was higher than in group B (37.22%) (P = 0.005). In both groups, the number of DN patients with CKD stage 1 was greater than the number of patients with stages 2–5. Increased liver fat content was associated with increased occurrence of severe and mild albuminuria and decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR). There were positive correlations between NAFLD and insulin resistance index (HOMA-IR), free fatty acids (FFA), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), omentin-1, visceral fat area, homocysteine (HCY), and serum uric acid (UA).

Conclusion

NAFLD might be a risk factor for DN. Elevated liver fat content could be associated with higher DN burden.     

Risk Score to Predict 1-Year Mortality after Haemodialysis Initiation in Patients with Stage 5 Chronic Kidney Disease under Predialysis Nephrology Care

Background

Few risk scores are available for predicting mortality in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients undergoing predialysis nephrology care. Here, we developed a risk score using predialysis nephrology practice data to predict 1-year mortality following the initiation of haemodialysis (HD) for CKD patients.

Methods

This was a multicenter cohort study involving CKD patients who started HD between April 2006 and March 2011 at 21 institutions with nephrology care services. Patients who had not received predialysis nephrology care at an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of approximately 10 mL/min per 1.73 m² were excluded. Twenty-nine candidate predictors were selected, and the final model for 1-year mortality was developed via multivariate logistic regression and was internally validated by a bootstrapping technique.

Results

A total of 688 patients were enrolled, and 62 (9.0%) patients died within one year of HD initiation. The following variables were retained in the final model: eGFR, serum albumin, calcium, Charlson Comorbidity Index excluding diabetes and renal disease (modified CCI), performance status (PS), and usage of erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA). Their β-coefficients were transformed into integer scores: three points were assigned to modified CCI≥3 and PS 3–4; two to calcium>8.5 mg/dL, modified CCI 1–2, and no use of ESA; and one to albumin<3.5 g/dL, eGFR>7 mL/min per 1.73 m², and PS 1–2. Predicted 1-year mortality risk was 2.5% (score 0–4), 5.5% (score 5–6), 15.2% (score 7–8), and 28.9% (score 9–12). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.79–0.89).

Conclusions

We developed a simple 6-item risk score predicting 1-year mortality after the initiation of HD that might help nephrologists make a shared decision with patients and families regarding the initiation of HD.     

Physical Activity,Smoking, and Alcohol Consumption in Association with Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes among Middle-Aged and Elderly Chinese Men

Background

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a prevalent chronic disease worldwide. The prevalence of T2DM is increasing rapidly in China. Understanding the contribution of modifiable lifestyle factors on T2DM risk is imperative to prevent the development of T2DM in China.

Methods

We examined associations between lifestyle factors including physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption with incidence of T2DM among middle-aged and elderly men in urban Shanghai. Information on socio-demographics, lifestyle habits, dietary habits, and disease history was collected via in-person interviews. Anthropometric measurements were taken. A total of 51 464 Chinese men aged 40–74 years free of T2DM, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke at baseline were included in the current study. Incident T2DM was identified through follow-up surveys conducted every 2–3 years. Cox proportional hazard analyses were conducted to evaluate associations between lifestyle risk factors and incidence of T2DM.

Results

We documented 1304 new cases of T2DM during 276 929 person-years of follow-up (average: 5.4 years). Physical activity was inversely associated with T2DM risk. Daily living, commuting, and total physical activity METs had inverse negative dose-response relationships with T2DM (P-trend = 0.0033, 0.0022, and <0.0001, respectively). Regular participation in exercise or sports reduced T2DM risk (HR = 0.86, 95%CI: 0.76–0.98). Moderate alcohol intake (1–3 drinks/day) was inversely related to T2DM risk (HR = 0.80, 95%CI: 0.67–0.94). Cigarette smoking, on the other hand, was associated with increased T2DM risk; HRs were 1.25 (95%CI: 1.00–1.56) for smoking more than 20 cigarettes per day and 1.28 (95%CI: 1.04–1.57) for smoking more than 40 pack-years.

Conclusions

Physical activity and moderate alcohol intake are inversely associated with T2DM risk, whereas smoking was positively associated with T2DM risk among middle-age and elderly Chinese men. Preventive measures should be developed to focus on these modifiable lifestyle habits to reduce the upward trend of T2DM.     

Red Blood Cell Fatty Acids and Incident Diabetes Mellitus in the Women’s Health Initiative Memory Study

Context

The relations between dietary and/or circulating levels of fatty acids and the development of type 2 diabetes is unclear. Protective associations with the marine omega-3 fatty acids and linoleic acid, and with a marker of fatty acid desaturase activity delta-5 desaturase (D5D ratio) have been reported, as have adverse relations with saturated fatty acids and D6D ratio.

Objective

To determine the associations between red blood cell (RBC) fatty acid distributions and incident type 2 diabetes.

Design

Prospective observational cohort study nested in the Women’s Health Initiative Memory Study.

Setting

General population.

Subjects

Postmenopausal women.

Main Outcome Measures

Self-reported incident type 2 diabetes.

Results

There were 703 new cases of type 2 diabetes over 11 years of follow up among 6379 postmenopausal women. In the fully adjusted models, baseline RBC D5D ratio was inversely associated with incident type 2 diabetes [Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81–0.95) per 1 SD increase. Similarly, baseline RBC D6D ratio and palmitic acid were directly associated with incident type 2 diabetes (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.04–1.25; and HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14–1.35, respectively). None of these relations were materially altered by excluding incident cases in the first two years of follow-up. There were no significant relations with eicosapentaenoic, docosahexaenoic or linoleic acids.

Conclusions

Whether altered fatty acid desaturase activities or palmitic acid levels are causally related to the development of type 2 diabetes cannot be determined from this study, but our findings suggest that proportions of certain fatty acids in RBC membranes are associated with risk for type 2 diabetes.     

Association between Maternal and Child Dietary Diversity: An Analysis of the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey

Objective (s)

This study examined the association between maternal and child dietary diversity in a population-based national sample in Ghana.

Methods

The data for this analysis are from the 2008 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey. We used data obtained from 1187 dyads comprised of mothers’ ages 15–49 and their youngest child (ages 6–36 months). Maternal and child dietary diversity scores (DDS) were created based on the mother’s recall of her own and her child’s consumption of 15 food groups, during the 24 hours prior to the in-home survey. The same food groups were used to compose both maternal and child DDS. Linear regression was used to assess the relationship between the predicted outcome – child DDS -- and maternal DDS, taking into account child age and sex, maternal factors (age, education, occupation, literacy, empowerment, number of antenatal visits as an indicator of health care use), household Wealth Index, and urban/rural place of residence.

Results

There was a statistically significant positive association between child and maternal DDS, after adjusting for all other variables. A difference of one food group in mother’s consumption was associated with a difference of 0.72 food groups in the child’s food consumption (95% CI: 0.63, 0.82). Also, statistically significant positive associations were observed such that higher child DDS was associated with older child age, and with greater women’s empowerment.

Conclusions

The results show a significant positive association between child and maternal DD, after accounting for the influence of child, maternal and household level factors. Since the likely path of influence is that maternal DDS impacts child DDS, public health efforts to improve child health may be strengthened by promoting maternal DDS due to its potential for a widened effect on the entire family.     

Added Sugar,Macro- and Micronutrient Intakes and Anthropometry of Children in a Developing World Context

Objective

The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between added sugar and dietary diversity, micronutrient intakes and anthropometric status in a nationally representative study of children, 1–8.9 years of age in South Africa.

Methods

Secondary analysis of a national survey of children (weighted n = 2,200; non weighted n = 2818) was undertaken. Validated 24-hour recalls of children were collected from mothers/caregivers and stratified into quartiles of percentage energy from added sugar (% EAS). A dietary diversity score (DDS) using 9 food groups, a food variety score (FVS) of individual food items, and a mean adequacy ratio (MAR) based on 11 micronutrients were calculated. The prevalence of stunting and overweight/obesity was also determined.

Results

Added sugar intake varied from 7.5–10.3% of energy intake for rural and urban areas, respectively. Mean added sugar intake ranged from 1.0% of energy intake in Quartile 1 (1–3 years) (Q1) to 19.3% in Q4 (4–8 years). Main sources of added sugar were white sugar (60.1%), cool drinks (squash type) (10.4%) and carbonated cool drinks (6.0%). Added sugar intake, correlated positively with most micronutrient intakes, DDS, FVS, and MAR. Significant negative partial correlations, adjusted for energy intake, were found between added sugar intake and intakes of protein, fibre, thiamin, pantothenic acid, biotin, vitamin E, calcium (1–3 years), phosphorus, iron (4–8 years), magnesium and zinc. The prevalence of overweight/obesity was higher in children aged 4–8 years in Q4 of %EAS than in other quartiles [mean (95%CI) % prevalence overweight 23.0 (16.2–29.8)% in Q4 compared to 13.0 (8.7–17.3)% in Q1, p = 0.0063].

Conclusion

Although DDS, FVS, MAR and micronutrient intakes were positively correlated with added sugar intakes, overall negative associations between micronutrients and added sugar intakes, adjusted for dietary energy, indicate micronutrient dilution. Overweight/obesity was increased with higher added sugar intakes in the 4–8 year old children.     

Osteocalcin Is Not Associated with the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Findings from the EPIC-NL Study

Objective

To investigate whether total osteocalcin (tOC), uncarboxylated osteocalcin (ucOC) and percentage of uncarboxylated osteocalcin (%ucOC) are associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes.

Methods

This nested case control study included 1,635 participants, 833 incident diabetes cases and 802 non-diabetic control participants, aged 21–70 years from the EPIC-NL cohort. Baseline concentrations of tOC, ucOC and %ucOC were assessed. During 10 years of follow-up, diabetes cases were self-reported and verified against information from general practitioners or pharmacists. The association between the different forms of osteocalcin and diabetes risk was assessed with logistic regression adjusted for diabetes risk factors (waist circumference, age, sex, cohort, smoking status, family history of diabetes, hypertension, alcohol intake, physical activity and education) and dietary factors (total energy intake and energy adjusted intake of fat, fiber, protein and calcium).

Results

TOC concentration was not associated with diabetes risk, with an odds ratio (OR) of 0.97 (0.91–1.03) for each ng/ml increment after adjustment for diabetes risk factors and dietary factors. No association between ucOC and %ucOC and the risk of diabetes was observed either. In sex stratified analyses (P interaction = 0.07), higher %ucOC tended to be associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes in a multivariable model in women (OR 1.05 for each increment of 5% ucOC (1.00–1.11), P_trend = 0.08), but not in men (OR 0.96 for each increment of 5% ucOC (0.88–1.04)). When waist circumference was replaced by body mass index, none of the osteocalcin forms were associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes in the final model among both women and men.

Conclusions

Available evidence suggests that tOC, ucOC and %ucOC are each not associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. However, more large-scale cohort studies are needed to clarify the presence of any association between the different forms of osteocalcin and the risk of type 2 diabetes.     

Prevalence and Cardiovascular Associations of Diabetic Retinopathy and Maculopathy: Results from the Gutenberg Health Study

Objective

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is the leading cause of blindness in people of working age. The purpose of this paper is to report the prevalence and cardiovascular associations of diabetic retinopathy and maculopathy (DMac) in Germany.

Research Design and Methods

The Gutenberg Health Study (GHS) is a population-based study with 15,010 participants aged between 35 at 74 years from the city of Mainz and the district of Mainz-Bingen. We determined the weighted prevalence of DR and DMac by assessing fundus photographs of persons with diabetes from the GHS data base. Diabetes was defined as HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, known diagnosis diabetes mellitus or known diabetes medication. Furthermore, we analysed the association between DR and cardiovascular risk factors and diseases.

Results

Overall, 7.5% (1,124/15,010) of the GHS cohort had diabetes. Of these, 27.7% were unaware of their disease and thus were newly diagnosed by their participation in the GHS. The prevalence of DR and DMac was 21.7% and 2.3%, respectively among patients with diabetes. Vision-threatening disease was present in 5% of the diabetic cohort. In the multivariable analysis DR (all types) was associated with age (Odds Ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.97 [0.955–0.992]; p = 0.006) arterial hypertension (1.90 [1.190–3.044]; p = 0.0072) and vision-threatening DR with obesity (3.29 [1.504–7.206]; p = 0.0029). DR (all stages) and vision-threatening DR were associated with duration of diabetes (1.09 [1.068–1.114]; p<0.0001 and 1.18 [1.137–1.222]; p<0.0001, respectively).

Conclusions

Our calculations suggest that more than a quarter-million persons have vision-threatening diabetic retinal disease in Germany. Prevalence of DR was lower in the GHS compared to East-Asian studies. Associations were found with age, arterial hypertension, obesity, and duration of diabetes mellitus.     

Statin Treatment and Mortality in Community-Dwelling Frail Older Patients with Diabetes Mellitus: A Retrospective Observational Study

Background

Older adults are often excluded from clinical trials. Decision making for administration of statins to older patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) is under debate, particularly in frail older patients with comorbidity and high mortality risk. We tested the hypothesis that statin treatment in older patients with DM was differentially effective across strata of mortality risk assessed by the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), based on information collected with the Standardized Multidimensional Assessment Schedule for Adults and Aged Persons (SVaMA).

Methods

In this retrospective observational study, we estimated the mortality risk in 1712 community-dwelling subjects with DM ≥ 65 years who underwent a SVaMA evaluation to establish accessibility to homecare services/nursing home admission from 2005 to 2013 in the Padova Health District, Italy. Mild (MPI-SVaMA-1), moderate (MPI-SVaMA-2), and high (MPI-SVaMA-3) risk of mortality at baseline and propensity score-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of three-year mortality were calculated according to statin treatment.

Results

Higher MPI-SVaMA scores were associated with lower rates of statin treatment (MPI-SVaMA-1 = 39% vs MPI-SVaMA-2 = 36% vs MPI-SVaMA-3 = 24.9%. p<0.001) and higher three-year mortality (MPI-SVaMA-1 = 12.9% vs MPI-SVaMA-2 = 24% vs MPI-SVaMA-3 = 34.4%, p<0.001). After adjustment for propensity score quintiles, statin treatment was significantly associated with lower three-year mortality irrespective of MPI-SVaMA group (interaction test p = 0.303). HRs [95% confidence interval (CI)] were 0.19 (0.14–0.27), 0.28 (0.21–0.36), and 0.26 (0.20–0.34) in the MPI-SVaMA-1, MPI-SVaMA-2, and MPI-SVaMA-3 groups, respectively. Subgroup analyses showed that statin treatment was also beneficial irrespective of age. HRs (95% CI) were 0.21 (0.15–0.31), 0.26 (0.20–0.33), and 0.26 (0.20–0.35) among patients aged 65–74, 75–84, and ≥ 85 years, respectively (interaction test p=0.812).

Conclusions

Statin treatment was significantly associated with reduced three-year mortality independently of age and multidimensional impairment in community-dwelling frail older patients with DM.     

The Population-Based Risk of Need for Coronary Revascularization According to the Presence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and History of Coronary Heart Disease in the Korean Population

Background

Whether diabetic patients without a history of coronary heart disease (CHD) have the same risk of CHD events as non-diabetic patients with a history of CHD remains controversial. This study aimed to determine whether type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a coronary heart disease (CHD) equivalent in the need for coronary revascularization procedures (RVs) in the Korean population.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We followed 2,168,698 subjects who had oral anti-diabetic drugs (OADs)-taking T2DM in 2008 and/or CHD in 2007–2008 (i.e., recent CHD). We used systematic datasets from the nationwide claims database of the Health Insurance Review and Assessment service of Korea, which is representative of the whole population of Korea, from January 2007 to December 2012. The primary study endpoint was the development of need for RVs (i.e., incident CHD) after January 2009 among three groups based on their status of T2DM and recent CHD, i.e., T2DM only, recent CHD only, and both T2DM and recent CHD. After adjustment for age and sex, patients with recent CHD only had 2.14 times the risk of incident CHD (95% CI, 2.11–2.18, P<0.001) compared with patients with T2DM only. Patients with both T2DM and recent CHD demonstrated approximately 2-fold increased risk of incident CHD compared with subjects with recent CHD only (95% CI, 1.75-1.82), while 4-fold increased risk compared with subjects with T2DM only (95% CI, 3.71-3.87). The risk of incident CHD also differed according to sex and age.

Conclusions/Significance

This analysis of data from the nationwide claims database revealed that T2DM did not have a recent CHD equivalent risk in the Korean population. These results suggest that an appropriate strategy for the CHD risk stratification in diabetic patients should be adopted to manage this population.     

Association between Diabetes and Risk of Aortic Dissection: A Case-Control Study in a Chinese Population

Background

It is well-recognized that diabetes represents a powerful independent risk factor for cardiovascular diseases. However, very few studies have investigated the relationship between diabetes and risk of aortic dissection (AD).

Aim

The aim of this case-control study was to evaluate the association between diabetes and risk of AD in Chinese population.

Methods

A hospital-based case-control study, consisting of 2160 AD patients and 4320 controls, was conducted in a Chinese population. Demographic, clinical characteristics and risk factors were collected. Diabetes rate of patients with overall AD, Stanford type A AD and type B AD group was compared with that of corresponding matched control groups. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for relationship between diabetes and AD risk.

Results

The prevalence of diabetes was lower in AD cases than that of control subjects, whether it is the overall AD, type A AD or type B AD group (4.7% vs. 10.0%, 2.9% vs. 8.8%, 5.9% vs. 10.9%, all P<0.001). Furthermore, in multivariate model, diabetes was found to be associated with lower AD risk, which not only applies to the overall AD (OR = 0.2, 95%CI: 0.15–0.26), but also type A AD (OR = 0.12, 95% CI: 0.07–0.20) and type B AD (OR = 0.25, 95%CI: 0.18–0.33).

Conclusions

We observed the paradoxical inverse relationship between DM and risk of AD in the Chinese population. These results suggest diabetes may play a protective role in the development of AD. However, further studies are needed to enrich related evidence, especially with regard to underlying mechanisms for these trends.     

Five-Year Incidence of Chronic Kidney Disease (Stage 3-5) and Associated Risk Factors in a Spanish Cohort: The MADIABETES Study

Objective

To evaluate the incidence rate of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) stage 3-5 (persistent decreased kidney function under 60 mL/min per 1.73 m²) among patients with type 2 diabetes over five years, to identify the risk factors associated with CKD, and develop a risk table to predict five-year CKD stage 3-5 risk stratification for clinical use.

Design

The MADIABETES Study is a prospective cohort study of 3,443 outpatients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, sampled from 56 primary health care centers (131 general practitioners) in Madrid (Spain).

Results

The cumulative incidence of CKD stage 3-5 at five-years was 10.23% (95% CI = 9.12–11.44) and the incidence density was 2.07 (95% CI = 1.83–2.33) cases per 1,000 patient-months or 2.48 (95% CI = 2.19–2.79) cases per 100 patient-years. The highest hazard ratio (HR) for developing CKD stage 3-5 was albuminuria ≥300 mg/g (HR = 4.57; 95% CI= 2.46-8.48). Furthermore, other variables with a high HR were age over 74 years (HR = 3.20; 95% CI = 2.13–4.81), a history of Hypertension (HR = 2.02; 95% CI = 1.42–2.89), Myocardial Infarction (HR= 1.72; 95% IC= 1.25–2.37), Dyslipidemia (HR = 1.68; 95% CI 1.30–2.17), duration of diabetes mellitus ≥ 10 years (HR = 1.46; 95% CI = 1.14-1.88) and Systolic Blood Pressure >149 mmHg (HR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.02–2.24).

Conclusions

After a five-year follow-up, the cumulative incidence of CKD is concordant with rates described in Spain and other countries. Albuminuria ≥ 300 mg/g and age over 74 years were the risk factors more strongly associated with developing CKD (Stage 3-5). Blood Pressure, lipid and albuminuria control could reduce CKD incidence of CKD in patients with T2DM.     

Young Male Patients with Atrial Fibrillation and CHA2DS2-VASc Score of 1 May Not Need Anticoagulants: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

Background

It is unclear whether oral anticoagulants are beneficial for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with low CHA₂DS₂-VASc score. Age could be important in determining the risk of thromboembolism in low risk AF patients (CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 1 for male or 2 for female).

Methods

The Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) was used and 27,521 AF patients with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 1 (male) or 2 (female) not receiving anticoagulants were acquired as the study cohort, which were classified into three age groups: 20–49, 50–64, and 65–74 years. The clinical endpoint was the occurrence of ischemic thromboembolism within one year of follow up.

Results

During the follow-up of 0.94 ± 0.19 years, 385 (2.19%) male patients experienced ischemic thromboembolism, with annual rate of 2.32%. The annual risk ranged from 1.29%, 2.43% to 2.77% for male patients aged 20–49, 50–64 and 65–74 years respectively. Of the female patients, 218 (2.20%) experienced clinical event with annual rate of 2.32%. The annual risk increased from 1.87%, 2.28% to 2.64% for female patients aged 20–49, 50–64 and 65–74 years respectively. There was no difference in risk between the male patients aged 20–49 years with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 1 and overall male patients with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 0. (P = 0.631) The female patients aged 20–49 years with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 2 was associated with a higher risk of thromboembolic events than overall female patients with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 1 (HR = 1.93; P = 0.008).

Conclusions

Age is important in determining the risk of thromboembolism in AF patients with single risk factor. In male patients <50 years old with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of 1, the risk of ischemic thromboembolism was low. Considering the benefits and the risk of bleeding, oral anticoagulation therapy may not be favorable in these patients.     

Risk Factors and Post-Resection Independent Predictive Score for the Recurrence of Hepatitis B-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background

Independent risk factors associated with hepatitis B (HBV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after resection remains unknown. An accurate risk score for HCC recurrence is lacking.

Methods

We prospectively followed up 200 patients who underwent liver resection for HBV-related HCC for at least 2 years. Demographic, biochemical, tumor, virological and anti-viral treatment factors were analyzed to identify independent risk factors associated with recurrence after resection and a risk score for HCC recurrence formulated.

Results

Two hundred patients (80% male) who underwent liver resection for HBV-related HCC were recruited. The median time of recurrence was 184 weeks (IQR 52–207 weeks) for the entire cohort and 100 patients (50%) developed HCC recurrence. Stepwise Cox regression analysis identified that one-month post resection HBV DNA >20,000 IU/mL (p = 0.019; relative risk (RR) 1.67; 95% confidence interval (C.I.): 1.09–2.57), the presence of lymphovascular permeation (p<0.001; RR 2.69; 95% C.I.: 1.75–4.12), microsatellite lesions (p<0.001; RR 2.86; 95% C.I.: 1.82–4.51), and AFP >100ng/mL before resection (p = 0.021; RR 1.63; 95% C.I.: 1.08–2.47) were independently associated with HCC recurrence. Antiviral treatment before resection (p = 0.024; RR 0.1; 95% C.I.: 0.01–0.74) was independently associated with reduced risk of HCC recurrence. A post-resection independent predictive score (PRIPS) was derived and validated with sensitivity of 75.3% and 60.6% and specificity of 55.7% and 79.2%, to predict the 1- and 3-year risks for the HCC recurrence respectively with the hazard ratio of 2.71 (95% C.I.: 2.12–3.48; p<0.001). The AUC for the 1- and 3-year prediction were 0.675 (95% C.I.: 0.6–0.78) and 0.746 (95% C.I.: 0.69–0.82) respectively.

Conclusion

Several tumor, virological and biochemical factors were associated with a higher cumulative risk of HCC recurrence after resection. PRIPS was derived for more accurate risk assessment. Regardless of the HBV DNA level, antiviral treatment should be given to patients before resection to reduce the risk of recurrence.     

Genetic Susceptible Locus in NOTCH2 Interacts with Arsenic in Drinking Water on Risk of Type 2 Diabetes

Background

Chronic exposure to arsenic in drinking water is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) but the underlying molecular mechanism remains unclear.

Objectives

This study evaluated the interaction between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in genes associated with diabetes and arsenic exposure in drinking water on the risk of developing T2DM.

Methods

In 2009–2011, we conducted a follow up study of 957 Bangladeshi adults who participated in a case-control study of arsenic-induced skin lesions in 2001–2003. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the association between 38 SNPs in 18 genes and risk of T2DM measured at follow up. T2DM was defined as having a blood hemoglobin A1C level greater than or equal to 6.5% at follow-up. Arsenic exposure was characterized by drinking water samples collected from participants'' tubewells. False discovery rates were applied in the analysis to control for multiple comparisons.

Results

Median arsenic levels in 2001–2003 were higher among diabetic participants compared with non-diabetic ones (71.6 µg/L vs. 12.5 µg/L, p-value <0.001). Three SNPs in ADAMTS9 were nominally associated with increased risk of T2DM (rs17070905, Odds Ratio (OR)  = 2.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17–4.50; rs17070967, OR = 2.02, 95%CI 1.00–4.06; rs6766801, OR = 2.33, 95%CI 1.18–4.60), but these associations did not reach the statistical significance after adjusting for multiple comparisons. A significant interaction between arsenic and NOTCH2 (rs699780) was observed which significantly increased the risk of T2DM (p for interaction = 0.003; q-value = 0.021). Further restricted analysis among participants exposed to water arsenic of less than 148 µg/L showed consistent results for interaction between the NOTCH2 variant and arsenic exposure on T2DM (p for interaction  = 0.048; q-value = 0.004).

Conclusions

These findings suggest that genetic variation in NOTCH2 increased susceptibility to T2DM among people exposed to inorganic arsenic. Additionally, genetic variants in ADAMTS9 may increase the risk of T2DM.     

Effect of Carotene and Lycopene on the Risk of Prostate Cancer: A Systematic Review and Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Background

Many epidemiologic studies have investigated the association between carotenoids intake and risk of Prostate cancer (PCa). However, results have been inconclusive.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of dietary intake or blood concentrations of carotenoids in relation to PCa risk. We summarized the data from 34 eligible studies (10 cohort, 11 nested case-control and 13 case-control studies) and estimated summary Risk Ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using random-effects models.

Results

Neither dietary β-carotene intake nor its blood levels was associated with reduced PCa risk. Dietary α-carotene intake and lycopene consumption (both dietary intake and its blood levels) were all associated with reduced risk of PCa (RR for dietary α-carotene intake: 0.87, 95%CI: 0.76–0.99; RR for dietary lycopene intake: 0.86, 95%CI: 0.75–0.98; RR for blood lycopene levels: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.69–0.96). However, neither blood α-carotene levels nor blood lycopene levels could reduce the risk of advanced PCa. Dose-response analysis indicated that risk of PCa was reduced by 2% per 0.2mg/day (95%CI: 0.96–0.99) increment of dietary α-carotene intake or 3% per 1mg/day (95%CI: 0.94–0.99) increment of dietary lycopene intake.

Conclusions

α-carotene and lycopene, but not β-carotene, were inversely associated with the risk of PCa. However, both α-carotene and lycopene could not lower the risk of advanced PCa.