The reliability of palatability estimates obtained from rumen contents analysis and a field-based index of diet selection

Understanding herbivore foraging behaviour is often limited by not knowing the palatability of food items. Electivity indices can overcome this challenge by relating the consumption of food items to their relative abundance in the environment. We compare eight widely used electivity indices to relate the level of consumption of 48 food items in the rumen contents of 402 red deer Cervus elaphus in New Zealand to the environmental availability of food items. Additionally, we derive a field-based index of palatability from observed browse damage recorded during vegetation surveys at our site. Electivity indices were positively correlated with each other and with the browse survey index, which was also positively correlated with electivity indices from other studies. Thus, the choice of electivity index is unimportant when making comparisons of relative palatability among food items. Our analyses suggest that quantitative measures of palatability may be reliably inferred from observed browse damage in the field, which is quicker and less destructive to estimate than electivity indices. As a result, we demonstrate a useful technique for predicting herbivore diet selection.     

Assessing fish metrics and biotic indices in a Mediterranean stream: effects of uncertain native status of fish

Implementation of the Water Framework Directive requires tools for measuring and monitoring the ecological status of aquatic ecosystems. Several indices are in use in the Iberian Peninsula, although there has been little comparison among them. We sampled the fish assemblage and limnological features of the Tordera stream (NE Spain) quarterly from September 2001 to May 2003 to evaluate the usefulness of several fish metrics and to compare habitat quality and biotic indices currently in use. Data for eight biotic and abiotic indices for this and three other Catalan river basins were also compiled in order to analyse the relationships among indices. In the Tordera stream, fish abundance and richness increased with stream order except in the last sampling site that had the lowest fish abundance owing to the effects of drought and water abstraction. Although most indices were positively correlated, some displayed low or null correlations particularly for the Tordera basin which is more affected by water abstraction and less by pollution; a commonly used physico-chemical index (ISQA) was the least correlated. In a regional fish index (IBICAT) under development, the brown trout (Salmo trutta) has been previously considered as introduced in the Tordera basin. Here, we report an old published record that demonstrates that trout was present before 1845 and we argue that its status should be considered as uncertain given the current information available. Whether brown trout is treated as native or introduced to this river basin has profound effects on the results of fish metrics because of its dominance in the upper reaches. We briefly discuss the role of introduced species, particularly in headwater streams, in the development of fish indices. Our study exemplifies the need for careful, basin-specific assessment of native/introduced status in the development of fish metrics. Handling editor: K. Martens     

Diversity and abundance of birds in relation to forest fragmentation,habitat quality and heterogeneity

This study investigated the importance of habitat quality and habitat heterogeneity for the abundance and diversity of breeding birds in continuous forest and in forest fragments surrounded by farmland in central Sweden. Positive correlations were found between species number and area, volume of Aspen Populus tremula and habitat heterogeneity. Spatial segregation of habitats at a relatively fine-grained scale is suggested to allow for the co-occurrence of more species. The abundance of at least 18 of the species in this study was influenced by fragmentation, and nine of these species preferred fragments to forest sites. The total density of birds was higher in fragments than in forest sites, probably because several fragment species forage in farmland surrounding the sites and a few also forage at edges. Nine species were more common in forest sites than in fragments, but only one species was restricted to continuous forest. However, several fragments were relatively close to forests (150 m) and forest was common in larger scale contexts. The abundance of most species (25 of 33 species) in this study was correlated with habitat quality variables (i.e. variables measuring the size, volume and diversity of ‘tree species’). Among these habitat variables the most important was the occurrence of deciduous trees which seemed to be important for 14 species. The second most important habitat factor seemed to be the diameter of trees, which was positively correlated with the abundance of eight species of which five are hole-nesters. Among coniferous trees, six species were positively correlated with the volume of Norway Spruce Picea abies, whereas no species seemed to be correlated with the volume of Pine Pinus sylvestris.     

Changes in the taxonomic diversity of the reef fish community of San José Island, Gulf of California, Mexico

Although San José Island is considered one of the most important islands in the lower Gulf of California due to its commercial fishing activities, few studies have evaluated their fish taxonomic diversity. The aim of this study was to determine the variation in the taxonomic diversity of the conspicuous fish community in eight locations around San José Island from March 2001 to February 2002. We assessed the changes in the diversity of rocky reef fish based on the taxonomic distances between species, using Fisher’s alpha diversity index, average taxonomic distinctiveness (AvTD Δ+), and taxonomic distinctiveness (Δ*). Visual censuses were conducted in 48 transects consisting of 100?×?5?m quadrants (500?m² sampling area) at an average depth of 5?m, from 09:00 to 16:00. A total of 26,608 fishes belonging to 112 species and 76 genera were found. The index of relative abundance was used to determine the most important species, which were in order of abundance: Abudefduf troschelii, Thalassoma lucasanum, Stegastes rectifraenum, Mulloidichthys dentatus, Chromis atrilobata, Lutjanus argentiventris, and Scarus ghobban. According to Fisher’s alpha diversity index, the highest diversity of species was found in July and the lowest in February. The indices of Δ+ and Δ* indicated significant temporal and spatial differences.     

Don’t let me down: West Indian manatee,Trichechus manatus,is still critically endangered in Brazil

Sirenians have a unique ecological function in coastal ecosystems, deserving special conservation attention. The West Indian manatee (Trichechus manatus) is globally classified as Vulnerable by the IUCN. In Brazil, where the species was intensively hunted in the past and currently faces several threats, it was classified as Endangered during the last national assessment published in 2014. Here, we generated information based on available data to assess the species extinction risk in Brazil using IUCN regional guidelines, applying all criteria, and choosing the highest category of risk. Abundance at the national level was projected considering the density estimated in Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte states and the Criterion B EOO (Extent of Occurrence) estimated in this study (34,899 km²) and resulted in 1,047 individuals (95% CI: 538–2,038). Six scenarios of annual mortality were inferred and suspected based on evidence. We adopted a simple discrete logistic growth model to project population reduction in the past and future (three generations − 69 years) in 18 scenarios. Among the 18 projected scenarios, four resulted in extinction, six in decline and eight in population growth. Considering the low abundance bound, all scenarios indicate a reduction larger than 80% in population size, classifying the species as ‘Critically Endangered’ based on A4de. Reduction in EOO and abundance in the past classify the species as ‘Endangered’ based on A2c. The suspected number of mature animals (607;95% CI: 312–1,182) and the projected decline higher than 20% in two generations also classify the species as ‘Endangered’ based on C1 and ‘Vulnerable’ under D1. Our results indicate that information can be generated to produce more accurate assessments based on available data. The species national extinction risk needs to be reassessed, and the National Action Plan effectiveness evaluated.     

Food selection by young Catla catla (Hamilton–Buchanan) in a tropical fish pond

Food selection by young Catla catla from a tropical fish pond was studied by computing the electivity indices for various types of planktonic food organisms. The fish was found to be a selective feeder. A positive selection was observed for cladocerans, copepods and nauplii larvae. Among the rotifers, however, Keratella and Brachionus were positively selected while Rotaria was completely avoided.
High electivity indices for some and low for the other genera were observed within each group of phytoplankton. Strict stenophagism seemed to occur for certain phytoplanktonic organisms.     

Guardian or threat: does golden eagle predation risk have cascading effects on forest grouse?

Previous studies on intraguild predation have mainly focused on within-class assemblages, even though avian top predators may also influence mammalian mesopredator prey. By using nation-wide long-term data from Finland, northern Europe, we examined the impacts of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) together with red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and pine martens (Martes martes) on forest-dwelling herbivores, black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) and hazel grouse (Tetrastes bonasia). We hypothesized that eagles may alleviate the overall predation pressure on grouse by imposing intraguild predation risk on mesopredators. The predation impact of eagle was modelled using eagle density estimates and distance to eagle nest. Wildlife triangle counts were used as predation impact proxies of mammalian mesopredators and as measures of response in grouse. Our results show that eagle density correlated negatively with black grouse abundance indices while being positively associated with the proportion of juveniles in both grouse species, irrespective of the abundance of mesopredators. Yet, foxes and martens alone had a negative effect on the abundance indices and the proportion of young in the two grouse species. This suggests that the possible cascading effects of eagles are not mediated by decreased mesopredator numbers, but instead by fear effects. Alternatively, they may be mediated by other species than fox or marten studied here. In conclusion, we found support for the hypothesis that eagles provide protection for juvenile black and hazel grouse, whereas they are a threat for adult grouse. This important information helps us to better understand the role of avian top predators in terrestrial ecosystems.     

The sampling characteristics of electivity indices

Summary Electivity indices measure the utilization of food types (r) in relation to their abundance or availability in the environment (p). Foods that constitute a larger proportion of the diet than of the available foods are considered preferred; conversely those proportionately underrepresented in the diet are avoided. A food is eaten at random if its proportion in the diet equals its proportion in the environment. A family of electivity indices stemming from Ivlev's (1961) classic monograph exist and differ only in the particular algorithm used to calculate electivity from r and p.For each available index I graphed the values of electivity as contours for all combinations of r and p. These graphs are compared to illustrate the strengths and weaknesses of each index on the basis of the following criteria: 1) the value of the index when r=p for a food, 2) the symmetry of the electivity value as feeding deviates from random, 3) the possible range of index values, 4) the linearity of changes in electivity over the full range of r and p, 5) the sensitivity of the index to sampling errors, 6) the statistical testability of the electivity, and 7) the stability of the electivity value for a food type that changes relative abundance or occurs in combination with different food types. No one index ideally satisfies all the criteria.The host preferences of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, feeding on tree foliage in an undisturbed deciduous forest in southwestern Quebec, Canada were used to compare the available indices: Ivlev's electivity, E; Ivlev's forage ratio, E'; Jacob's modified electivity, D; Jacob's modified forage ratio, log Q; Chesson's alpha; Strauss' linear index, L; and Vanderploeg and Scavia's relativized electivity, E ^*. The electivity values calculated by each index differ one from another; host trees shown as preferred by one index will frequently appear avoided according to an alternative index. The rank order electivities for the 19 available host trees, however, are remarkably similar for all but Strauss' linear index, L. Populus grandidentata, Quercus rubra, Ostrya virginiana, and Amelanchier were the most preferred host trees in the sampled forest; Prunus serotina, Acer pensylvanicum, A. rubrum, Betula lutea, and Fraxinus americana were most avoided. The use of Vanderploeg and Scavia's E ^* index is recommended.     

A comparison of algal,macroinvertebrate, and fish assemblage indices for assessing low-level nutrient enrichment in wadeable Ozark streams

Biotic indices for algae, macroinvertebrates, and fish assemblages can be effective for monitoring stream enrichment, but little is known regarding the value of the three assemblages for detecting perturbance as a consequence of low-level nutrient enrichment. In the summer of 2006, we collected nutrient and biotic samples from 30 wadeable Ozark streams that spanned a nutrient-concentration gradient from reference to moderately enriched conditions. Seventy-three algal metrics, 62 macroinvertebrate metrics, and 60 fish metrics were evaluated for each of the three biotic indices. After a group of candidate metrics had been identified with multivariate analysis, correlation procedures and scatter plots were used to identify the four metrics having strongest relations to a nutrient index calculated from log transformed and normalized total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations. The four metrics selected for each of the three biotic indices were: algae—the relative abundance of most tolerant diatoms, the combined relative abundance of three species of Cymbella, mesosaprobic algae percent taxa richness, and the relative abundance of diatoms that are obligate nitrogen heterotrophs; macroinvertebrate—the relative abundance of intolerant organisms, Baetidae relative abundance, moderately tolerant taxa richness, and insect biomass; fish—herbivore and detritivore taxa richness, pool species relative abundance, fish catch per unit effort, and black bass (Micropterus spp.) relative abundance.All three biotic indices were negatively correlated to nutrient concentrations but the algal index had a higher correlation (rho = ?0.89) than did the macroinvertebrate and fish indices (rho = ?0.63 and ?0.58, respectively). Biotic index scores were lowest and nutrient concentrations were highest for streams with basins having the highest poultry and cattle production. Because of the availability of litter for fertilizer and associated increases in grass and hay production, cattle feeding capacity increases with poultry production. Studies are needed that address the synergistic effect of poultry and cattle production on Ozark streams in high production areas before ecological risks can be adequately addressed.     

Estimating density of a forest-dwelling bat: a predictive model for Rafinesque’s big-eared bat

Data on species distribution and abundance are the foundation of population ecology. However, due to difficulties in surveying bats, abundance estimates for tree-roosting microchiropterans are non-existent. Therefore, our objective was to develop methods for estimating colony abundance and density, taking as our model Rafinesque’s big-eared bat Corynorhinus rafinesquii, a species of conservation concern found in cypress-gum swamps of the southeastern United States. We searched 123 transects at eight study sites in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, USA to locate and characterize diurnal summer roosts of C. rafinesquii. We modeled the relationship between the number of bat colonies and landscape-scale habitat variables with zero-inflated negative binomial regression and used Akaike’s information criterion to select the most parsimonious models. We generated a predictive density map to identify areas of high colony density and to estimate overall abundance. Colony density was predicted by the duration of wetland flooding, wetland width, and study site. Application of the regression model to a GIS indicated there were 3,734 colonies containing 6,910 adult bats on the eight study sites. Predicted density ranged from 0.07 colonies/ha and 0.07 adult bats/ha in saturated wetlands to 0.47 colonies/ha and 1.18 adult bats/ha in semi-permanently flooded wetlands. This study is the first to estimate density and abundance of forest-dwelling microchiropterans over a large area. Such data can serve as a baseline for future work on population trends in C. rafinesquii. In addition, our approach could be replicated for other bat species with moderately cryptic roosts.     

Mosquito Surveillance Revealed Lagged Effects of Mosquito Abundance on Mosquito-Borne Disease Transmission: A Retrospective Study in Zhejiang,China

Mosquito-borne diseases (MBDs) are still threats to public health in Zhejiang. In this study, the associations between the time-lagged mosquito capture data and MBDs incidence over five years were used to examine the potential effects of mosquito abundance on patterns of MBDs epidemiology in Zhejiang during 2008–2012. Light traps were used to collect adult mosquitoes at 11 cities. Correlation tests with and without time lag were performed to investigate the correlations between MBDs incidence rates and mosquito abundance by month. Selected MBDs consisted of Japanese encephalitis (JE), dengue fever (DF) and malaria. A Poisson regression analysis was performed by using a generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach, and the most parsimonious model was selected based on the quasi-likelihood based information criterion (QICu). We identified five mosquito species and the constituent ratio of Culex pipiens pallens, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, Aedes albopictus, Anopheles sinensis and Armigeres subalbatus was 66.73%, 21.47%, 6.72%, 2.83% and 2.25%, respectively. The correlation analysis without and with time lag showed that Culex mosquito abundance at a lag of 0 or 1 month was positively correlated with JE incidence during 2008–2012, Ae. albopictus abundance at a lag of 1 month was positively correlated with DF incidence in 2009, and An. sinensis abundance at a lag of 0–2 months was positively correlated with malaria incidence during 2008–2010. The Poisson regression analysis showed each 0.1 rise of monthly mosquito abundance corresponded to a positive increase of MBD cases for the period of 2008–2012. The rise of mosquito abundance with a lag of 0–2 months increased the risk of human MBDs infection in Zhejiang. Our study provides evidence that mosquito monitoring could be a useful early warning tool for the occurrence and transmission of MBDs.     

Spartina alterniflora loisel root structure and meiofaunal abundance

Meiofauna were collected from adjacent areas with and without Spartina alterniflora Loisel culms. Environmental complexity resulting from root structure cannot be determined by simply observing S. alterniflora culm distribution. There were no significant differences between the two areas with respect to root density or root sizes; however, the number of live roots was significantly higher in the area containing Spartina culms. Nematodes, the most abundant taxon were positively correlated with live root density. In contrast, the number of dead roots and harpacticoid copepods were higher in the area without culms. This study suggests that nematodes are positively associated with micro-oxygenated zones produced by live S. alterniflora roots. Other measures of biogenic structure, such as total root density or root size fractions are not important in affecting nematode abundance.     

Differential methylation in CD44 and SEC23A is associated with time preference in older individuals

Time preference is a measure used to ascertain the level of which individuals prefer smaller, immediate rewards over larger, delayed rewards. We explored how an individual’s time preference associates with their epigenetic profile.Time preferences were ascertained by asking participants of the Northern Ireland COhort for the Longitudinal study of Ageing to make a series of choices between two hypothetical income scenarios. From these, eight ‘time preference’ categories were derived, ranging from “patient” to “impatient” on an ordinal scale. The Infinium High Density Methylation Assay, MethylationEPIC (Illumina) was used to evaluate the status of 862,927 CpGs. Time preference and DNA methylation data were obtained for 1648 individuals. Four analyses were conducted, assessing the methylation patterns at single site resolution between patient and impatient individuals using two adjustment models.In this discovery cohort analysis, two CpG sites were identified with significantly different levels of methylation (p < 9 × 10^-8) between the individuals allocated to the patient group and the remaining population following adjustment for covariates; cg08845621 within CD44 and cg18127619 within SEC23A. Neither of these genes have previously been linked to time preference.Epigenetic modifications have not previously been linked to time preference using a population cohort but they may represent important biomarkers of accumulated, complex determinants of this trait. Further analysis is warranted of both the top-ranked results and of DNA methylation as an important link between measurable biomarkers and health behaviours.     

Performance of a species distribution model based on presence/absence for various population sizes in the amphidromous fish species Sicyopterus japonicus

We formulated a species distribution model (SDM) for the amphidromous fish Sicyopterus japonicus on the basis of presence/absence data and confirmed its performance at various population densities. The best-fit SDM selected several environmental factors, including water depth and velocity, and performed validated prediction of presence/absence of various densities. The predicted probability of occurrence was positively correlated with the observed density. The density was positively related to habitat occupancy, suggesting that this species occupied a wide range of habitats under high densities, but only optimal habitat under low densities. Therefore, the threshold value for predicting presence/absence increased with decreasing densities.     

Size matters: predation of fish eggs and larvae by native and invasive amphipods

Invasive predators can have dramatic impacts on invaded communities. Extreme declines in macroinvertebrate populations often follow killer shrimp (Dikerogammarus villosus) invasions. There are concerns over similar impacts on fish through predation of eggs and larvae, but these remain poorly quantified. We compare the predatory impact of invasive and native amphipods (D. villosus and Gammarus pulex) on fish eggs and larvae (ghost carp Cyprinus carpio and brown trout Salmo trutta) in the laboratory. We use size-matched amphipods, as well as larger D. villosus reflecting natural sizes. We quantify functional responses, and electivity amongst eggs or larvae and alternative food items (invertebrate, plant and decaying leaf). D. villosus, especially large individuals, were more likely than G. pulex to kill trout larvae. However, the magnitude of predation was low (seldom more than one larva killed over 48 h). Trout eggs were very rarely killed. In contrast, carp eggs and larvae were readily killed and consumed by all amphipod groups. Large D. villosus had maximum feeding rates 1.6–2.0 times higher than the smaller amphipods, whose functional responses did not differ. In electivity experiments with carp eggs, large D. villosus consumed the most eggs and the most food in total. However, in experiments with larvae, consumption did not differ between amphipod groups. Overall, our data suggest D. villosus will have a greater predatory impact on fish populations than G. pulex, primarily due to its larger size. Higher invader abundance could amplify this difference. The additional predatory pressure could reduce recruitment into fish populations.     

Microbial community composition and its role in volatile compound formation during the spontaneous fermentation of ice wine made from Vidal grapes

Vidal grape grown in Ili, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, is one of few grapes used to ferment ice wine in China. Microbial community structure and volatile composition during the spontaneous fermentation of ice wine made from Vidal grapes in Ili were investigated using amplicon sequencing technology and headspace solid-phase microextraction/gas chromatography-mass spectrometer technologies. Among bacterial genera, Sphingobium, Pseudomonas and Sphingomonas gradually decreased, while Lactobacillus and Streptococcus increased during the spontaneous fermentation process. As regards fungi, the relative abundance of Vishniacozymaand Cladosporium reduced, but Hanseniaspora sharply raised. Additionally, correlations between microbes and volatile compounds were constructed based on multivariate data analysis. The results revealed that the functional core microbiota (mainly composed of eight bacterial genera and nine fungal genera) during ice wine fermentation showed considerable correlations with the formation of twenty-four volatile compounds in ice wine made from Vidal grapes. For example, Saccharomyces was positively correlated with ethanol, ethyl acetate and isoamylol; Hanseniaspora and Candidawere negatively correlated with hexanol; and Lactobacillus and Streptococcus were positively correlated with 2,3-butanediol, ethanol, ethyl acetate, isoamylol and isoamyl acetate. This studyprovides a reference for understanding the process of ice wine fermentation and improving the quality of ice wine made from Vidal grapes.     

Opportunistic foraging by heteropteran mosquito predators

Tropical aquatic environments host a large number of predatory insects including heteropteran water bugs Anisops bouvieri Kirkaldy, 1704 (Heteroptera: Notonectidae), Diplonychus (=Sphaerodema) rusticus Fabricius, 1781 (Heteroptera: Belostomatidae), and Diplonychus (=Sphaerodema) annulatus Fabricius, 1781 (Heteroptera: Belostomatidae) feeding on a range of organisms. In tropical and subtropical wetlands, ponds, and temporary pools these predators play a role in regulation of dipteran populations, particularly mosquitoes and chironomids. Their relative abilities to control mosquitoes depend in part on predator preference for mosquitoes in relation to other natural prey, and the predators’ propensities to switch to mosquitoes as mosquito density increases. The prey electivity and switching dynamics of these predatory water bugs were evaluated in the laboratory under various prey densities, using two instars (II and IV) of chironomid and mosquito larvae as prey. Studies of electivity at relatively high densities (20 prey L⁻¹) in small (5 L) vessels demonstrated that all predators showed opportunistic foraging as the mosquito:chironomid ratio changed, with some evidence that mosquito larvae were positively selected over chironomids. In particular, Anisops showed strong electivity for mosquitoes when presented with any ratio of large mosquito and chironomid prey in the high density experiment, although the preference was not expressed in lower density (2.5 prey L⁻¹) treatments executed in 40 L vessels. In these lower density treatments, D. rusticus demonstrated higher electivity for mosquitoes when the mosquito:chironomid ratio was high, consistent with non-significant trends observed in the higher density experiment. The positive electivity of D. rusticus for mosquitoes was reinforced in an experiment executed over 16 days at varying prey ratios, in which D. rusticus mosquito electivity was high and consistent while D. annulatus showed slight avoidance of mosquito larvae, and Anisops remained largely opportunistic in foraging on prey in proportion with availability. Anisops and D. rusticus are potentially good biocontrol agents for mosquito larvae, in that they preferentially consume mosquitoes under many circumstances but can readily forage on other prey when mosquito density is low.     

Population Indices Versus Correlated Density Estimates of Black-Footed Ferret Abundance

ABSTRACT Estimating abundance of carnivore populations is problematic because individuals typically are elusive, nocturnal, and dispersed across the landscape. Rare or endangered carnivore populations are even more difficult to estimate because of small sample sizes. Considering behavioral ecology of the target species can drastically improve survey efficiency and effectiveness. Previously, abundance of the black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes) was monitored by spotlighting and generating indices of relative abundance because reintroduced populations were slow to establish. Indices, however, lack variance estimates and are costly to generate for the black-footed ferret. We therefore used spotlight surveys and live-trapping in conjunction with a robust mark-recapture estimator to improve abundance monitoring for the black-footed ferret, one of North America's most endangered carnivores. We estimated abundance of the black-footed ferret at Shirley Basin, Wyoming, USA, using correlated density estimates and Program MARK. We compared our results to 2 indices of relative abundance, minimum number alive and predicted number of ferrets from litter counts. The correlated density estimate for the black-footed ferret (N̂_R = 229; 95% CI = 161–298) was similar to minimum number alive (N̂_R = 192) and predicted number of ferrets from litter counts (N̂_R= 235). The efficiency and effectiveness of survey methods we used for the black-footed ferret were high by carnivoran standards. Our results suggest that the sampling approach we utilized can be implemented for a fraction of the cost and effort required to generate 2 indices of relative abundance for the black-footed ferret. Although we recommend managers implement a similar survey approach to monitor abundance of reintroduced populations of the black-footed ferret, analysis with sparse data sets will be problematic. Until the black-footed ferret becomes widespread and abundant at a reintroduction site, spotlighting will remain preferable as a means to generate indices of distribution and relative abundance for the black-footed ferret.     

These are not the trends you are looking for: poorly calibrated single-pass electrofishing data can bias estimates of trends in fish abundance

There is increasing interest in the potential of single-pass and timed electrofishing to assess status and trends in fish populations. However, where capture probability varies over time, there is a risk that uncalibrated electrofishing data could fail to detect, or provide biased estimates of trends. This study analysed a long-term electrofishing dataset collected over 50 years in an intensively studied catchment where egg deposition and emigrant production declined by c. 82% and 35% over the same time. The electrofishing data were used to illustrate the effects of changing capture probability on estimated trends in juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar abundance. Temporal variability in capture probability was modelled. Trends in abundance were then estimated from uncalibrated single-pass electrofishing count data and compared with estimates from data calibrated for capture probability. The calibrated data revealed significant declines in S. salar fry (age 0) and parr (age ≥ 1) abundance. However, the trend estimates from the uncalibrated data were positively biased and not significant. Exploration of alternative (realistic) scenarios with different trends in true abundance and capture probability suggests that uncalibrated electrofishing data can provide very misleading estimates of trends. The problem is exacerbated in data where capture probability is low. It is recommended that single-pass and timed electrofishing methods should not be used to assess trends in fish populations without regular (annual) calibration.