How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

Agriculture directly contributes about 10%–12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO₂. Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle‐climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non‐CO₂ emissions now and in future, and to CO₂ from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non‐CO₂ emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO₂ from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non‐CO₂ livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO₂ emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non‐CO₂ emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal.     

Life-Cycle Global Warming Impact of CFCs and CFC-substitutes for Refrigeration

We have investigated the global warming potential (GWP) of CFC-I I, CFC-12, and their replacements, HCFC-I23 and HFC-I34a, based on a life-cycle methodology for refrigeration. We have extended the definition of the total equivalent warming impact (TEWI), which considers the GWP (direct) and GWP (indirect) warming potential of each chemical compound, by adding the GWP (chemical production), GWP (recycling), and GWP (atmospheric breakdown products) for each chemical. We call the new index "life-cycle warming impact" (LCWI).We find that the GWP (chemical production) contributes by no more than 1% to LCWI, and that the GWP (indirect) is highly dependent on refrigerator eficiency and the fuel mix of the electricity source used to operate the appliance. The GWP (atmospheric breakdown products) may also have a significant impact on LCWI.     

增温对土壤N2O和CH4排放的影响与微生物机制研究进展

全球变暖已引起人们的广泛关注,大气温室效应气体浓度增加是导致全球变暖的主要因素之一,土壤是温室效应气体的主要来源。反过来,全球变暖对土壤温室气体的排放具有反馈作用。温度升高不仅会影响植物、动物、微生物的生长及其相互作用,还会影响土壤的物质(尤其是氮、碳)循环过程,从而影响土壤温室效应气体的排放。本文主要总结了增温对土壤主要温室气体N₂O和CH₄排放的影响及其微生物机制。总体来看,增温能够促进这两种温室气体的排放,其排放主要与温度对氨氧化细菌(AOB)、反硝化功能基因、甲烷产生菌和甲烷氧化菌的丰度和组成的影响有关。土壤温室气体排放也受到植物的物种特性、养分吸收和群落组成,以及土壤营养元素含量、含水量、pH值等理化性质的影响。未来应更深入地从微生物角度探讨全球变暖对土壤温室气体排放的反馈作用机制,加强不同增温模式对土壤温室气体排放的影响研究,并关注增温与其他环境因子相互作用对土壤温室气体排放的影响等,以期为全球变暖对土壤温室气体排放反馈作用的预测提供理论依据。     

Energy requirements and environmental impacts associated with the production of short rotation willow (Salix sp.) chip in Ireland

Willow Salix sp. is currently cultivated as a short rotation forestry crop in Ireland as a source of biomass to contribute to renewable energy goals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the energy requirements and environmental impacts associated with willow (Salix sp.) cultivation, harvest, and transport using life cycle assessment (LCA). In this study, only emissions from the production of the willow chip are included, end‐use emissions from combustion are not considered. In this LCA study, three impact categories are considered; acidification potential, eutrophication potential and global warming potential. In addition, the cumulative energy demand and energy ratio of the system are evaluated. The results identify three key processes in the production chain which contribute most to all impact categories considered; maintenance, harvest and transportation of the crop. Sensitivity analysis on the type of fertilizers used, harvesting technologies and transport distances highlights the effects of these management techniques on overall system performance. Replacement of synthetic fertilizer with biosolids results in a reduction in overall energy demand, but raises acidification potential, eutrophication potential and global warming potential. Rod harvesting compares unfavourably in comparison with direct chip harvesting in each of the impact categories considered due to the additional chipping step required. The results show that dedicated truck transport is preferable to tractor‐trailer transport in terms of energy demand and environmental impacts. Finally, willow chip production compares favourably with coal provision in terms of energy ratio and global warming potential, while achieving a higher energy ratio than peat provision but also a higher global warming potential.     

A hybrid approach to identify the risk priority of sources of greenhouse gases

Abstract

Examination of greenhouse gas emissions is crucial for understanding the global warming. For this reason, identification of the sources of greenhouse gas emissions is crucial. This paper presents a hybrid multi criteria decision making method, which combines analytic hierarchy process and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution and compares this method with actual data for identifying the risk priority of sources of greenhouse gas emissions. For this purpose, the historical data of 25-years, for six-greenhouse gas sources and three-greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH_4, N₂O) are considered. Consequently, it was found that while incineration of wastes caused the minimum GHG emissions, energy sector caused the maximum GHG emissions. The results of this paper show that use of this hybrid method is easy and intelligible, and has a good potential for sorting the risk priority of sources of greenhouse gas emissions.     

Future consequences and challenges for dairy cow production systems arising from climate change in Central Europe – a review

It is well documented that global warming is unequivocal. Dairy production systems are considered as important sources of greenhouse gas emissions; however, little is known about the sensitivity and vulnerability of these production systems themselves to climate warming. This review brings different aspects of dairy cow production in Central Europe into focus, with a holistic approach to emphasize potential future consequences and challenges arising from climate change. With the current understanding of the effects of climate change, it is expected that yield of forage per hectare will be influenced positively, whereas quality will mainly depend on water availability and soil characteristics. Thus, the botanical composition of future grassland should include species that are able to withstand the changing conditions (e.g. lucerne and bird's foot trefoil). Changes in nutrient concentration of forage plants, elevated heat loads and altered feeding patterns of animals may influence rumen physiology. Several promising nutritional strategies are available to lower potential negative impacts of climate change on dairy cow nutrition and performance. Adjustment of feeding and drinking regimes, diet composition and additive supplementation can contribute to the maintenance of adequate dairy cow nutrition and performance. Provision of adequate shade and cooling will reduce the direct effects of heat stress. As estimated genetic parameters are promising, heat stress tolerance as a functional trait may be included into breeding programmes. Indirect effects of global warming on the health and welfare of animals seem to be more complicated and thus are less predictable. As the epidemiology of certain gastrointestinal nematodes and liver fluke is favourably influenced by increased temperature and humidity, relations between climate change and disease dynamics should be followed closely. Under current conditions, climate change associated economic impacts are estimated to be neutral if some form of adaptation is integrated. Therefore, it is essential to establish and adopt mitigation strategies covering available tools from management, nutrition, health and plant and animal breeding to cope with the future consequences of climate change on dairy farming.     

Implementing an appropriate metric for the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from livestock production: A national case study

Livestock farming is of major economic relevance but also severely contributes to environmental impacts, especially greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as methane (CH₄; particularly from ruminant production) and nitrous oxide (N₂O; mainly from manure management and soil cultivated for feed production). In this study, we analyse the impact of GHG emissions from Austrian livestock production, using two metrics: a) the commonly used global warming potential (GWP) over 100 years (GWP₁₀₀ in CO₂-equivalents, CO₂-e), and b) the recently introduced metric GWP*, which describes additional warming as a function of the timeline of short-lived GHG emissions (unit CO₂ warming equivalents, CO₂-we). We first compiled the sectoral (i.e. only direct emissions without upstream processes) GWP₁₀₀ for different livestock categories with a focus on dairy cattle, beef cattle and pigs in Austria between 1990 and 2019. We also estimated product-related (i.e. per kg carcass weight or per litre of milk) GWP₁₀₀ values, including upstream processes. We then calculated the corresponding GWP* metrics, both sectoral and product-related, and compared them with the GWP₁₀₀ values. Decreasing livestock numbers and improved production efficiency were found to result in strong sectoral emission reductions from dairy production (–32 % of GWP₁₀₀ from 1990 to 2019) and from pigs (–32 % CO₂-e). This contrasts with low reductions from other livestock categories and even increases for cattle other than dairy cows (+3 % CO₂-e), mainly due to rising suckler cow numbers. Allocated results per kg milk and kg body mass show quite similar results. Using the GWP* metric, the climate impacts of Austrian livestock production are less severe. When assuming constant management and emission intensity over a period of at least 20 years, the CO₂-we (GWP*) is almost 50 % less than CO₂-e (GWP₁₀₀) per kg Austrian raw milk due to the different impacts of the short-lived CH₄. A similar trend applies to an average cattle carcass (-40 % warming impact). The emission reductions of the shrinking Austrian livestock population represent an important contribution to a climate-neutral agriculture: The CH₄ reductions of livestock production during the past 20 years reduce the current total Austrian CO₂-we by 16 %. Continuous CH₄ reduction, as we show it here for Austrian livestock, is an effective option to tackle the climate crisis in the short term. It shall be stressed that a relatively low GWP* should not be interpreted as a concession for further CH₄ emissions but as an actual reduction of (additional) warming.     

Decreased growth of wild soil microbes after 15 years of transplant-induced warming in a montane meadow

The carbon stored in soil exceeds that of plant biomass and atmospheric carbon and its stability can impact global climate. Growth of decomposer microorganisms mediates both the accrual and loss of soil carbon. Growth is sensitive to temperature and given the vast biological diversity of soil microorganisms, the response of decomposer growth rates to warming may be strongly idiosyncratic, varying among taxa, making ecosystem predictions difficult. Here, we show that 15 years of warming by transplanting plant–soil mesocosms down in elevation, strongly reduced the growth rates of soil microorganisms, measured in the field using undisturbed soil. The magnitude of the response to warming varied among microbial taxa. However, the direction of the response—reduced growth—was universal and warming explained twofold more variation than did the sum of taxonomic identity and its interaction with warming. For this ecosystem, most of the growth responses to warming could be explained without taxon-specific information, suggesting that in some cases microbial responses measured in aggregate may be adequate for climate modeling. Long-term experimental warming also reduced soil carbon content, likely a consequence of a warming-induced increase in decomposition, as warming-induced changes in plant productivity were negligible. The loss of soil carbon and decreased microbial biomass with warming may explain the reduced growth of the microbial community, more than the direct effects of temperature on growth. These findings show that direct and indirect effects of long-term warming can reduce growth rates of soil microbes, which may have important feedbacks to global warming.     

Climate Change and Global Health: Quantifying a Growing Ethical Crisis

Climate change, as an environmental hazard operating at the global scale, poses a unique and “involuntary exposure” to many societies, and therefore represents possibly the largest health inequity of our time. According to statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO), regions or populations already experiencing the most increase in diseases attributable to temperature rise in the past 30 years ironically contain those populations least responsible for causing greenhouse gas warming of the planet. Average global carbon emissions approximate one metric ton per year (tC/yr) per person. In 2004, United States per capita emissions neared 6 tC/yr (with Canada and Australia not far behind), and Japan and Western European countries range from 2 to 5 tC/yr per capita. Yet developing countries’ per capita emissions approximate 0.6 tC/yr, and more than 50 countries are below 0.2 tC/yr (or 30-fold less than an average American). This imbalance between populations suffering from an increase in climate-sensitive diseases versus those nations producing greenhouse gases that cause global warming can be quantified using a “natural debt” index, which is the cumulative depleted CO₂ emissions per capita. This is a better representation of the responsibility for current warming than a single year’s emissions. By this measure, for example, the relative responsibilities of the U.S. in relation to those of India or China is nearly double that using an index of current emissions, although it does not greatly change the relationship between India and China. Rich countries like the U.S. have caused much more of today’s warming than poor ones, which have not been emitting at significant levels for many years yet, no matter what current emissions indicate. Along with taking necessary measures to reduce the extent of global warming and the associated impacts, society also needs to pursue equitable solutions that first protect the most vulnerable population groups; be they defined by demographics, income, or location. For example, according to the WHO, 88% of the disease burden attributable to climate change afflicts children under age 5 (obviously an innocent and “nonconsenting” segment of the population), presenting another major axis of inequity. Not only is the health burden from climate change itself greatest among the world’s poor, but some of the major mitigation approaches to reduce the degree of warming may produce negative side effects disproportionately among the poor, for example, competition for land from biofuels creating pressure on food prices. Of course, in today’s globalized world, eventually all nations will share some risk, but underserved populations will suffer first and most strongly from climate change. Moreover, growing recognition that society faces a nonlinear and potentially irreversible threat has deep ethical implications about humanity’s stewardship of the planet that affect both rich and poor.     

Environmental Assessment of Wood‐Based Biofuel Production and Consumption Scenarios in Norway

In Norway, the boreal forest offers a considerable resource base, and emerging technologies may soon make it commercially viable to convert these resources into low‐carbon biofuels. Decision makers are required to make informed decisions about the environmental implications of wood biofuels today that will affect the medium‐ and long‐term development of a wood‐based biofuels industry in Norway. We first assess the national forest‐derived resource base for use in biofuel production. A set of biomass conversion technologies is then chosen and evaluated for scenarios addressing biofuel production and consumption by select industry sectors. We then apply an environmentally extended, mixed‐unit, two‐region input?output model to quantify the global warming mitigation and fossil fuel displacement potentials of two biofuel production and consumption scenarios in Norway up to 2050. We find that a growing resource base, when used to produce advanced biofuels, results in cumulative global warming mitigation potentials of between 58 and 83 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents avoided (Mt‐CO₂‐eq.‐avoided) in Norway, depending on the biofuel scenario. In recent years, however, the domestic pulp and paper industry—due to increasing exposure to international competition, capacity reductions, and increasing production costs—has been in decline. In the face of a declining domestic pulp and paper industry, imported pulp and paper products are required to maintain the demand for these goods and thus the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the exporting region embodied in Norway's pulp and paper imports reduce the systemwide benefit in terms of avoided greenhouse gas emissions by 27%.     

Asymmetric effects of daytime and nighttime warming on alpine treeline recruitment

Trees at their upper range limits are highly sensitive to climate change, and thus alpine treelines worldwide have changed their recruitment patterns in response to climate warming. However, previous studies focused only on daily mean temperature, neglecting the asymmetric influences of daytime and nighttime warming on recruitments in alpine treelines. Here, based on the compiled dataset of tree recruitment series from 172 alpine treelines across the Northern Hemisphere, we quantified and compared the different effects of daytime and nighttime warming on treeline recruitment using four indices of temperature sensitivity, and assessed the responses of treeline recruitment to warming-induced drought stress. Our analyses demonstrated that even in different environmental regions, both daytime and nighttime warming could significantly promote treeline recruitment, and however, treeline recruitment was much more sensitive to nighttime warming than to daytime warming, which could be attributable to the presence of drought stress. The increasing drought stress primarily driven by daytime warming rather than by nighttime warming would likely constrain the responses of treeline recruitment to daytime warming. Our findings provided compelling evidence that nighttime warming rather than daytime warming could play a primary role in promoting the recruitment in alpine treelines, which was related to the daytime warming-induced drought stress. Thus, daytime and nighttime warming should be considered separately to improve future projections of global change impacts across alpine ecosystems.     

Soil respiration under prolonged soil warming: are rate reductions caused by acclimation or substrate loss?

The world's soils contain a large amount of carbon so that even a fractionally small loss or gain could have a quantitatively important feedback effect on net CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. It is therefore important to fully understand the temperature dependence of soil‐carbon decomposition. Evidence from various observations can be used to quantify the temperature dependence of carbon efflux, but it is important to ensure that confounding factors, such as changing water relations or availability of readily decomposable substrate, are fully considered in inferring an underlying temperature response from observed response patterns. A number of recent findings from soil‐warming experiments have led to the suggestion that stimulation of soil‐carbon efflux by increasing temperature is only transitory before acclimation takes place and carbon efflux rates return to similar rates as before the increase in temperature. It is shown here that this response pattern can be explained through a simple two‐pool soil‐carbon model with no acclimation response needing to be invoked. The temporal pattern is, instead, due to depletion of readily decomposable substrate. It shows that findings of reduced respiration rate in soil‐warming experiments are consistent with unchanged high temperature sensitivity of organic carbon decomposition and affirms that there is, indeed, a danger of positive feedback between global warming and the release of soil organic carbon that can lead to further warming.     

陆地生态系统野外增温控制实验的技术与方法

由于人类活动导致的碳排放急剧增加, 工业革命以来全球地表温度显著增加约1 ℃, 未来全球气候还将持续变暖, 到21世纪末最高可升温4 ℃。这种前所未有的气候变化不仅影响陆地植被的适应策略, 也深刻影响生态系统的结构和功能。其中陆地生态系统碳收支对全球变暖的反馈, 是决定未来气候变化强度的关键因素, 因此全球已经开展了大量的生态系统尺度的野外增温控制实验, 研究生态系统碳收支对气温升高的响应, 从而提高地球系统模型的预测精度。然而由于增温技术和方法的不同, 不同研究的结果之间难以进行比较。该文系统总结了常见的野外增温技术和方法, 包括主动增温和被动增温, 阐述了其优缺点、适用对象以及相关研究成果。同时简要介绍了野外增温控制实验的前沿研究方向——新一代野外增温技术(包括全土壤剖面增温和全生态系统增温)和基于新一代增温技术开展的野外增温联网实验。     

全球变暖与陆地生态系统研究中的野外增温装置

由于化石燃料燃烧和森林砍伐等人类活动引起的地球大气层中温室气体(主要是二氧化碳)的富集已导致全球平均温度在20世纪升高了0.6 ℃,并将在本世纪继续上升1.4~5.8 ℃。这种地质历史上前所未有的全球变暖将对陆地植物和生态系统产生深远影响,并通过全球碳循环的改变反馈于全球气候变化。作为全球变化生态学的主要研究方法之一,生态系统增温实验能够为生态模型提供参数估计和模型验证。然而由于在世界各地使用的增温装置不同,使得各个生态系统之间的结果比较和整合难以实施,增加了模型预测的不确定性。该文通过比较几种常见的野外增温装置在模拟全球变暖情形时的优缺点,指出利用不同增温装置进行全球变暖研究中应注意的一些问题;同时探讨了全球变暖控制实验研究中的一些关键性的科学问题。     

CO2 emissions from biomass combustion for bioenergy: atmospheric decay and contribution to global warming

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from biomass combustion are traditionally assumed climate neutral if the bioenergy system is carbon (C) flux neutral, i.e. the CO₂ released from biofuel combustion approximately equals the amount of CO₂ sequestered in biomass. This convention, widely adopted in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies of bioenergy systems, underestimates the climate impact of bioenergy. Besides CO₂ emissions from permanent C losses, CO₂ emissions from C flux neutral systems (that is from temporary C losses) also contribute to climate change: before being captured by biomass regrowth, CO₂ molecules spend time in the atmosphere and contribute to global warming. In this paper, a method to estimate the climate impact of CO₂ emissions from biomass combustion is proposed. Our method uses CO₂ impulse response functions (IRF) from C cycle models in the elaboration of atmospheric decay functions for biomass‐derived CO₂ emissions. Their contributions to global warming are then quantified with a unit‐based index, the GWP_bio. Since this index is expressed as a function of the rotation period of the biomass, our results can be applied to CO₂ emissions from combustion of all the different biomass species, from annual row crops to slower growing boreal forest.     

全球气候变暖对凋落物分解的影响

凋落物分解作为生态系统核心过程,参与生态系统碳的周转与循环,影响生态系统碳的收支平衡,调控生态系统对全球气候变暖的反馈结果。全球气候变暖通过环境因素、凋落物数量和质量以及分解者3个方面,直接或间接地作用于凋落物分解过程,并进一步影响土壤养分周转和碳库动态。气候变暖可通过升高温度和改变实际蒸散量等环境因素直接作用于凋落物分解。气候变暖可引起植物物种短期内碳、氮和木质素等化学性质的改变以及群落中物种组成的长期变化从而改变凋落物质量。在凋落物分解过程中,土壤分解者亚系统作为主要生命组分(土壤动物和微生物)彼此相互作用、相互协调共同参与调节凋落物的分解过程。凋落物分解可以通过改变土壤微生物量、微生物活动和群落结构来加快微生物养分的固定或矿化,以形成新的养分利用模式来改变土壤有机质从而对气候变化做出响应。未来凋落物分解的研究方向应基于大尺度跨区域分解实验和长期实验,关注多个因子交互影响下,分解过程中碳、氮养分释放、地上/地下凋落物分解生物学过程与联系、分解者亚系统营养级联效应等方面。     

Automobile air conditioning: A case study of CFC replacements part II

Global warming impact (GW) of automobile air-conditioners using two refrigerants — a hydrocarbon blend and HFC-134a -were estimated and compared. The HFC-134a system showed a GW 20–90% greater than that of the hydrocarbon system. Volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions of the air-conditioners were near to equal, in the basecase scenario slightly higher for HFC-134a, in some scenarios slightly higher for the hydrocarbon.     

海洋浮游古菌MGII的研究进展

海洋浮游古菌MGⅡ是海洋表层水体中最丰富的古菌类群。自1992年被发现以来,如今依然没有被成功分离纯化。前人基于16S rRNA基因的研究认为MGⅡ可以被分为MGⅡa、MGⅡb和MGⅡc三个亚类。近年来,对大量的宏基因组测序数据的分析表明,MGⅡ在分类学上属于广古菌门热源体纲下的一个目,包含MGⅡa和MGⅡb两个科。以前通过16S rRNA基因高通量测序结果得出的少量MGⅡc,在宏基因组测序的数据中并没有找到,因此最近两年的研究认为MGⅡ主要由MGⅡa和MGⅡb组成。本文综述了海洋浮游古菌MGⅡ的丰度和多样性分布特征、潜在的生态功能、生态关系以及培养等方面的研究进展,比较了MGⅡa和MGⅡb的异同点,并对当前的研究热点和趋势进行了讨论和展望。     

Response of insect parasitism to elevation depends on host and parasitoid life-history strategies

How global warming will affect insect parasitoids and their role as natural enemies of insect pests is difficult to assess within a short period of time. Considering that elevation gradients can be used as analogues for global warming, we carried out meta-analyses of 27 correlations between parasitoid richness and elevation and 140 correlations between parasitism rate and elevation in natural and semi-natural environments. We also explored various covariates that may explain the observed responses. Both parasitism rates and parasitoid species richness significantly decreased with increasing elevation. The decrease was greater for ectoparasitoids and parasitoids of ectophagous insects than for endoparasitoids and parasitoids of endophagous hosts, possibly because these latter are better protected from adverse and extreme climatic conditions occurring at higher elevations. Although our results suggest an increase of parasitism with increasing temperature, other factors regulating herbivorous insects have to be considered before concluding that climate warming will lead to a decrease in pest density.