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1.
BackgroundA global stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was established in 2013 for use in outbreak response and are licensed as two-dose regimens. Vaccine availability, however, remains limited. Previous studies have found that a single dose of OCV may provide substantial protection against cholera.MethodsUsing a mathematical model with two age groups paired with optimization algorithms, we determine the optimal vaccination strategy with one and two doses of vaccine to minimize cumulative overall infections, symptomatic infections, and deaths. We explore counterfactual vaccination scenarios in three distinct settings: Maela, the largest refugee camp in Thailand, with high in- and out-migration; N’Djamena, Chad, a densely populated region; and Haiti, where departments are connected by rivers and roads.ResultsOver the short term under limited vaccine supply, the optimal strategies for all objectives prioritize one dose to the older age group (over five years old), irrespective of setting and level of vaccination coverage. As more vaccine becomes available, it is optimal to administer a second dose for long-term protection. With enough vaccine to cover the whole population with one dose, the optimal strategies can avert up to 30% to 90% of deaths and 36% to 92% of symptomatic infections across the three settings over one year. The one-dose optimal strategies can avert 1.2 to 1.8 times as many cases and deaths compared to the standard two-dose strategy.ConclusionsIn an outbreak setting, speedy vaccination campaigns with a single dose of OCV is likely to avert more cases and deaths than a two-dose pro-rata campaign under a limited vaccine supply.  相似文献   

2.
BackgroundIn 2013, a stockpile of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was created for use in outbreak response, but vaccine availability remains severely limited. Innovative strategies are needed to maximize the health impact and minimize the logistical barriers to using available vaccine. Here we ask under what conditions the use of one dose rather than the internationally licensed two-dose protocol may do both.ConclusionsReactive vaccination campaigns using a single dose of OCV may avert more cases and deaths than a standard two-dose campaign when vaccine supplies are limited, while at the same time reducing logistical complexity. These findings should motivate consideration of the trade-offs between one- and two-dose campaigns in resource-constrained settings, though further field efficacy data are needed and should be a priority in any one-dose campaign.  相似文献   

3.
Influenza is an important public health issue,especially with the aging of the population,since the most serious consequences of the illness affect the elderly.Between 1979 and 2001,approximately 41000...  相似文献   

4.
Two of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines currently approved in the United States require 2 doses, administered 3 to 4 weeks apart. Constraints in vaccine supply and distribution capacity, together with a deadly wave of COVID-19 from November 2020 to January 2021 and the emergence of highly contagious Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, sparked a policy debate on whether to vaccinate more individuals with the first dose of available vaccines and delay the second dose or to continue with the recommended 2-dose series as tested in clinical trials. We developed an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission to compare the impact of these 2 vaccination strategies, while varying the temporal waning of vaccine efficacy following the first dose and the level of preexisting immunity in the population. Our results show that for Moderna vaccines, a delay of at least 9 weeks could maximize vaccination program effectiveness and avert at least an additional 17.3 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 7.8–29.7) infections, 0.69 (95% CrI: 0.52–0.97) hospitalizations, and 0.34 (95% CrI: 0.25–0.44) deaths per 10,000 population compared to the recommended 4-week interval between the 2 doses. Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines also averted an additional 0.60 (95% CrI: 0.37–0.89) hospitalizations and 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.23–0.45) deaths per 10,000 population in a 9-week delayed second dose (DSD) strategy compared to the 3-week recommended schedule between doses. However, there was no clear advantage of delaying the second dose with Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines in reducing infections, unless the efficacy of the first dose did not wane over time. Our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the characteristics and durability of vaccine-induced protection after the first dose in order to determine the optimal time interval between the 2 doses.

There are two widely used COVID-19 vaccination strategies; administering the two doses three to four weeks apart or delaying the administration of the second dose. A modelling study calibrated to COVID-19 spread and vaccination in the US shows that delaying the second dose can maximize the benefits of vaccination programs under certain conditions.  相似文献   

5.
Further advances are required in understanding protection from AIDS by T-cell immunity. We analyzed a set of multigenic simian/human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) DNA and fowlpox virus priming and boosting vaccines for immunogenicity and protective efficacy in outbred pigtail macaques. The number of vaccinations required, the effect of DNA vaccination alone, and the effect of cytokine (gamma interferon) coexpression by the fowlpox virus boost was also studied. A coordinated induction of high levels of broadly reactive CD4 and CD8 T-cell immune responses was induced by sequential DNA and fowlpox virus vaccination. The immunogenicity of regimens utilizing fowlpox virus coexpressing gamma interferon, a single DNA priming vaccination, or DNA vaccines alone was inferior. Significant control of a virulent SHIV challenge was observed despite a loss of SHIV-specific proliferating T cells. The outcome of challenge with virulent SHIV(mn229) correlated with vaccine immunogenicity except that DNA vaccination alone primed for protection almost as effectively as the DNA/fowlpox virus regimen despite negligible immunogenicity by standard assays. These studies suggest that priming of immunity with DNA and fowlpox virus vaccines could delay AIDS in humans.  相似文献   

6.
Long-lasting protection against viral infection is best achieved by vaccination with attenuated viruses. Obtaining stably attenuated vaccine strains has traditionally been an empirical process, which greatly restricts the number of effective vaccines for viral diseases. Here we describe a rational approach for engineering stably attenuated viruses that can serve as safe and effective vaccines. Our approach exploits the observation that restricting viral population diversity by increasing replication fidelity greatly reduces viral tissue tropism and pathogenicity. We show that poliovirus variants with reduced genetic diversity elicit a protective immune response in an animal model of infection. Indeed, these novel vaccine candidates are comparable in efficacy to the currently available Sabin type 1 vaccine strain, but have the added advantage of being more stable, as their increased replication fidelity prevents reversion to the pathogenic wild-type phenotype. We propose that restricting viral quasispecies diversity provides a general approach for the rational design of stable, attenuated vaccines for a wide variety of viruses.  相似文献   

7.
The Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and Influenza A Virus (IAV) are both two major causative agents of severe respiratory tract infections in humans leading to hospitalization and thousands of deaths each year. In this study, we evaluated the immunogenicity and efficacy of a combinatory DNA vaccine in comparison to the single component vaccines against both diseases in a mouse model. Intramuscular electroporation with plasmids expressing the hemagglutinin (HA) of IAV and the F protein of RSV induced strong humoral immune responses regardless if they were delivered in combination or alone. In consequence, high neutralizing antibody titers were detected, which conferred protection against a lethal challenge with IAV. Furthermore, the viral load in the lungs after a RSV infection could be dramatically reduced in vaccinated mice. Concurrently, substantial amounts of antigen-specific, polyfunctional CD8+ T-cells were measured after vaccination. Interestingly, the cellular response to the hemagglutinin was significantly reduced in the presence of the RSV-F encoding plasmid, but not vice versa. Although these results indicate a suppressive effect of the RSV-F protein, the protective efficacy of the combinatory vaccine was comparable to the efficacy of both single-component vaccines. In conclusion, the novel combinatory vaccine against RSV and IAV may have great potential to reduce the rate of severe respiratory tract infections in humans without increasing the number of necessary vaccinations.  相似文献   

8.
Mortality due to seasonal and pandemic influenza could be reduced by increasing the speed of influenza vaccine production and distribution. We propose that vaccination can be expedited by (1) immunizing with influenza virus-like particle (VLP) vaccines, which are simpler and faster to manufacture than conventional egg-based inactivated virus vaccines, and (2) administering vaccines using microneedle patches, which should simplify vaccine distribution due to their small package size and possible self-administration. In this study, we coated microneedle patches with influenza VLP vaccine, which was released into skin by dissolution within minutes. Optimizing the coating formulation required balancing factors affecting the coating dose and vaccine antigen stability. Vaccine stability, as measured by an in vitro hemagglutination assay, was increased by formulation with increased concentration of trehalose or other stabilizing carbohydrate compounds and decreased concentration of carboxymethylcellulose (CMC) or other viscosity-enhancing compounds. Coating dose was increased by formulation with increased VLP concentration, increased CMC concentration, and decreased trehalose concentration, as well as increased number of dip coating cycles. Finally, vaccination of mice using microneedles stabilized by trehalose generated strong antibody responses and provided full protection against high-dose lethal challenge infection. In summary, this study provides detailed analysis to guide formulation of microneedle patches coated with influenza VLP vaccine and demonstrates effective vaccination in vivo using this system.  相似文献   

9.
In developing countries, every year about 70 million measles cases occur with 1.5 million deaths, over 200,000 children contract paralytic poliomyelitis, 50 million people get infected with viral B hepatitis causing over 1 million deaths, and several thousand people perish because of yellow fever according to WHO data. At the present time, there are 12 vaccines against viruses: vaccines against German measles and mumps in addition to the above. The universal immunization program (UIP) of WHO targets measles and polio. In 1989, a WHO resolution envisioned a 90% immunization coverage by the year 2000. Measles vaccination is recommended for children aged 9-23 months, since most children have maternal antibodies during the first 3-13 months of age. The Edmonston-Zagreb vaccine provided seroconversion of 92, 96, and 98% for 18 months vs. the 66, 76, and 91% rate of the Schwarz vaccine. In the US, measles incidence increased from 1497 cases in 1983 to 6382 cases in 1988 to over 14,000 cases in 1989, prompting second vaccination in children of school age. The highest incidence of polio was registered in Southeast Asia, although it declined from 1 case/100,000 population in 1975 to .5/100,000 in 1988. Oral poliomyelitis vaccine (OPV) provides protection: there is only 1 case/2.5 million vaccinations. Hepatitis B has infected over 2 billion people. About 300 million are carriers, with a prevalence of 20% in African, Asian, and Pacific region populations. Plasmatic and bioengineered recombinant vaccine type have been used in 30 million people. The first dose is given postnatally, the second at 1-2 months of age, and the 3rd at 1 year of age. Yellow fever vaccine was 50 years old in 1988, yet during 1986-1988 there were 5395 cases with 3172 deaths in Africa and South America. Vaccination provides 90-95% seroconversion, and periodic follow-up vaccinations under UIP could eradicate these infections and their etiologic agents.  相似文献   

10.
Measles virus (MV), a highly infective paramyxovirus, has caused sporadic epizootics characterized by high morbidity and increased mortality in nonhuman primates. Measles vaccines for human use, although effective, are cost prohibitive for use in primate colonies. We compared the efficacy of one or two doses of Vanguard D-M, a canine distemper-measles (CD-M) vaccine, with a single dose of Attenuvax, a human measles vaccine. Compared with 81% of animals inoculated with Attenuvax, all animals inoculated with one or two doses of Vanguard developed detectable MV antibodies. One year after immunization, six juveniles from each vaccine group, along with three unvaccinated controls, were challenged with pathogenic MV and were monitored for clinical signs of disease, viremia, viral shedding, and immune response. All uninoculated controls developed clinical disease and viremia, and shed virus in nasopharangeal secretions. Subclinical viremia without viral shedding was identified in two Attenuvax- and two single-dose Vanguard-inoculated animals. Viremia was not detected in any two-dose Vanguard-inoculated animals. Significantly higher neutralization antibody titers were observed in animals receiving Vanguard. Results of this study indicate that Vanguard is at least as efficacious as Attenuvax for protection of rhesus macaques. The considerably lower cost of Vanguard makes vaccination against measles in large breeding colonies economically feasible.  相似文献   

11.
Anticancer vaccines have been extensively studied in animal models and in clinical trials. While vaccination can lead to tumor protection in numerous murine models, objective tumor regressions after anticancer vaccination in clinical trials have been rare. B16 is a poorly immunogenic murine melanoma that has been extensively used in anticancer vaccination experiments. Because B16 has been widely used, different vaccination strategies can be compared. We reviewed the results obtained when B16 was treated with five common vaccine types: recombinant viral vaccines, DNA vaccines, dendritic cell vaccines, whole-tumor vaccines, and peptide vaccines. We also reviewed the results obtained when B16 was treated with vaccines combined with adoptive transfer of tumor antigen-specific T cells. We found several characteristics of vaccination regimens that were associated with antitumor efficacy. Many vaccines that incorporated xenogeneic antigens exhibited more potent anticancer activity than vaccines that were identical except that they incorporated the syngeneic version of the same antigen. Interleukin-2 enhanced the antitumor efficacy of several vaccines. Finally, several effective regimens generated large numbers of tumor antigen-specific CD8(+) T cells. Identification of vaccine characteristics that are associated with antitumor efficacy may aid in the development of more effective anticancer vaccination strategies.  相似文献   

12.
DNA‐based vaccination is an attractive alternative for overcoming the disadvantages of inactivated virus vaccines; however, DNA vaccines alone often generate only weak immune responses. In this study, the efficacy of LMS as a chemical adjuvant on a DNA vaccine (pVIR‐P12A‐IL18‐3C) encoding the P1‐2A and 3C genes of the FMDV and swine IL‐18, which provides protection against FMDV challenge, was tested. All test pigs were administered booster vaccinations 28 days after the initial inoculation, and were challenged with 1000 ID50 FMDV O/NY00 20 days after the booster vaccination. Positive and negative control groups were inoculated with inactivated virus vaccine and PBS respectively. The DNA vaccine plus LMS induced greater humoral and cell‐mediated responses than the DNA vaccine alone, as evidenced by higher concentrations of neutralizing and specific anti‐FMDV antibodies, and by higher concentrations of T‐lymphocyte proliferation and IFN‐γ production, respectively. FMDV challenge revealed that the DNA vaccine plus LMS provided higher protection than the DNA vaccine alone. This study demonstrates that LMS may be useful as an adjuvant for improving the protective efficiency of DNA vaccination against FMDV in pigs.  相似文献   

13.
The filoviruses, Marburg virus (MARV) and Ebola virus, causes severe hemorrhagic fever with high mortality in humans and nonhuman primates. A promising filovirus vaccine under development is based on a recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus (rVSV) that expresses individual filovirus glycoproteins (GPs) in place of the VSV glycoprotein (G). These vaccines have shown 100% efficacy against filovirus infection in nonhuman primates when challenge occurs 28–35 days after a single injection immunization. Here, we examined the ability of a rVSV MARV-GP vaccine to provide protection when challenge occurs more than a year after vaccination. Cynomolgus macaques were immunized with rVSV-MARV-GP and challenged with MARV approximately 14 months after vaccination. Immunization resulted in the vaccine cohort of six animals having anti-MARV GP IgG throughout the pre-challenge period. Following MARV challenge none of the vaccinated animals showed any signs of clinical disease or viremia and all were completely protected from MARV infection. Two unvaccinated control animals exhibited signs consistent with MARV infection and both succumbed. Importantly, these data are the first to show 100% protective efficacy against any high dose filovirus challenge beyond 8 weeks after final vaccination. These findings demonstrate the durability of VSV-based filovirus vaccines.  相似文献   

14.

Background

We have previously demonstrated protective efficacy against B. melitensis using formulations of naked DNA vaccines encoding genes ialB and omp25. The present study was undertaken to further understand the immune response generated by the protective vaccination regimens and to evaluate cationic liposome adsorption as a delivery method to improve vaccine utility.

Methods

The protective efficacy and immunogenicity of vaccines delivered as four doses of naked DNA, a single dose of naked DNA or a single dose of DNA surface adsorbed to cationic liposomes were compared using the BALB/c murine infection model of B. melitensis. Antigen-specific T cells and antibody responses were compared between the various formulations.

Results

The four dose vaccination strategy was confirmed to be protective against B. melitensis challenge. The immune response elicited by the various vaccines was found to be dependent upon both the antigen and the delivery strategy, with the IalB antigen favouring CD4+ T cell priming and Omp25 antigen favouring CD8+. Delivery of the p- ialB construct as a lipoplex improved antibody generation in comparison to the equivalent quantity of naked DNA. Delivery of p- omp25 as a lipoplex altered the profile of responsive T cells from CD8+ to CD4+ dominated. Under these conditions neither candidate delivered by single dose naked DNA or lipoplex vaccination methods was able to produce a robust protective effect.

Conclusions

Delivery of the p- omp25 and p- ialB DNA vaccine candidates as a lipoplex was able to enhance antibody production and effect CD4+ T cell priming, but was insufficient to promote protection from a single dose of either vaccine. The enhancement of immunogenicity by lipoplex delivery is a promising step toward improving the practicality of these two candidate vaccines, and suggests that this lipoplex formulation may be of value in situations where improvements to CD4+ responses are required. However, in the case of Brucella vaccine development it is suggested that further modifications to the candidate vaccines and delivery strategies will be required in order to deliver sustained protection.  相似文献   

15.
Pertussis vaccines vary in quality, safety, and efficacy according to the production strains of Bordetella pertussis, the method of manufacture, and quality control procedures. It is therefore not justifiable to combine information on the incidence, nature, and severity of reactions after all manufacturers'' pertussis vaccines as if they were a single product. Attempts were made to collect information on all suspected cases of severe reactions that occurred after administration of about 15 million doses of Wellcome pertussis vaccines in the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland from 1964 to mid-1977. Altogether six deaths, six neurological reactions with sequelae, and 17 convulsions without sequelae were reported, but some were clearly not attributable to the vaccine, while, in other cases, the available information was inadequate for assessing the role of vaccination. Neurological disorders, similar to those reported in a few children after pertussis vaccination, occur unexpectedly in apparently healthy infants at the recommended age for immunisation, so chance association between vaccination and these events can be expected in some children. The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation has made several recommendations aimed at reducing severe reactions after pertussis vaccination. These include replacing plain vaccine with aluminium-adsorbed vaccine, but there is no clear evidence that the aluminium-adsorbed vaccine produces fewer reactions than the plain.There are difficulties enough in deciding the cause of events that occur after vaccination, since these reactions often occur naturally in children of vaccination age. The task is made even harder by the assumption that various manufacturers'' vaccines are the same and the lack of information available to manufacturers about cases in which their vaccine has been implicated. Information on vaccines administered is entered on immunisation records cards; it should be used and referred to if reactions occur.  相似文献   

16.

Background

The 2009 influenza pandemic and shortages in vaccine supplies worldwide underscore the need for new approaches to develop more effective vaccines.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We generated influenza virus-like particles (VLPs) containing proteins derived from the A/California/04/2009 virus, and tested their efficacy as a vaccine in mice. A single intramuscular vaccination with VLPs provided complete protection against lethal challenge with the A/California/04/2009 virus and partial protection against A/PR/8/1934 virus, an antigenically distant human isolate. VLP vaccination induced predominant IgG2a antibody responses, high hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titers, and recall IgG and IgA antibody responses. HAI titers after VLP vaccination were equivalent to those observed after live virus infection. VLP immune sera also showed HAI responses against diverse geographic pandemic isolates. Notably, a low dose of VLPs could provide protection against lethal infection.

Conclusion/Significance

This study demonstrates that VLP vaccination provides highly effective protection against the 2009 pandemic influenza virus. The results indicate that VLPs can be developed into an effective vaccine, which can be rapidly produced and avoid the need to isolate high growth reassortants for egg-based production.  相似文献   

17.
Studies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) vaccines in animal models suggest that it is difficult to induce complete protection from infection (sterilizing immunity) but that it is possible to reduce the viral load and to slow or prevent disease progression following infection. We have developed an age-structured epidemiological model of the effects of a disease-modifying HIV vaccine that incorporates the intrahost dynamics of infection, a transmission rate and host mortality that depend on the viral load, the possible evolution and transmission of vaccine escape mutant viruses, a finite duration of vaccine protection, and possible changes in sexual behavior. Using this model, we investigated the long-term outcome of a disease-modifying vaccine and utilized uncertainty analysis to quantify the effects of our lack of precise knowledge of various parameters. Our results suggest that the extent of viral load reduction in vaccinated infected individuals (compared to unvaccinated individuals) is the key predictor of vaccine efficacy. Reductions in viral load of about 1 log(10) copies ml(-1) would be sufficient to significantly reduce HIV-associated mortality in the first 20 years after the introduction of vaccination. Changes in sexual risk behavior also had a strong impact on the epidemic outcome. The impact of vaccination is dependent on the population in which it is used, with disease-modifying vaccines predicted to have the most impact in areas of low prevalence and rapid epidemic growth. Surprisingly, the extent to which vaccination alters disease progression, the rate of generation of escape mutants, and the transmission of escape mutants are predicted to have only a weak impact on the epidemic outcome over the first 25 years after the introduction of a vaccine.  相似文献   

18.
Bovine ephemeral fever (BEF) is an economically important viral vector-borne cattle disease. Several live-attenuated, inactivated and recombinant vaccines have been tested, demonstrating varying efficacy. However, to the best of our knowledge, duration of immunity conferred by an inactivated vaccine has never been reported. In the last decade, Israel has faced an increasing number of BEF outbreaks. The need for an effective vaccine compatible with strains circulating in the Middle East region led to the development of a MONTANIDE™ ISA 206 VG (water-in-oil-in-water), inactivated vaccine based on a local strain. We tested the safety, immunogenicity and duration of immunity conferred by this vaccine. The induced neutralizing antibody (NA) response was followed for 493 days in 40 cows vaccinated by different protocols. The vaccine did not cause adverse reactions or a decrease in milk production. All cows [except 2 (6.7%) which did not respond to vaccination] showed a significant rise in NA titer of up to 1:256 following the second, third or fourth booster vaccination. Neutralizing antibody levels declined gradually to 1:16 up to 120 days post vaccination. This decline continued in cows vaccinated only twice, whereas cows vaccinated 3 or 4 times showed stable titers of approximately 1:16 for up to 267 days post vaccination. At least three vaccinations with the inactivated BEF vaccine were needed to confer long-lasting immunity. These results may have significant implications for the choice of vaccination protocol with inactivated BEF vaccines. Complementary challenge data should however be added to the above results in order to determine what is the minimal NA response conferring protection from clinical disease.  相似文献   

19.
A proper vaccination against avian influenza viruses in chicken can significantly reduce the risk of human infection. Egypt has the highest number of recorded humans highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-H5N1 infections worldwide despite the widespread use of homologous vaccines in poultry. Enhancing H5N1 vaccine efficacy is ultimately required to better control HPAI-H5N1. The aim of this study is to boost chicken immunity by combined with inactivated HPAI-H5N1 with selenium nanoparticles (SeNPs). The chickens groups 1–3 were fed diets supplemented with SeNPs concentrations (0.25, 0.5, and 1 mg/kg) for 3 weeks and then vaccinated (inactivated HPAI-H5N1). while groups 4,5 and 6 were fed with SeNPs free diets and administered with 0.5 ml of the vaccine combined with 0.02, 0.06, and 0.1 mg/dose of SeNPs and then all groups were challenged with homologous virus 3 weeks post-vaccination (WPV). Group 7, 8 were used as control positive and negative respectively. At 4, 5, and 6 WPV, antibody titer was considerably higher in the group fed a meal supplemented with 1 mg SeNPs/kg. In contrast, both methods of SeNPs supplementation significantly increased the Interleukin 2 (IL2), Interleukin 6 (IL6), and Interferon γ (IFNγ) expressions in the blood cells in a dose-dependent manner, with a higher expression observed in the group that was vaccinated with 0.1 mg/dose. After the challenge, all groups that received SeNPs via diet or vaccines dose showed significant reduction in viral shedding and milder inflammation in lung, trachea, spleen, and liver in addition to higher expression of IL2, IL6, and IFNγ, with the highest expression observed in the group that was vaccinated with 0.1 mg/dose compared the plain vaccinated group. The groups of 1 mg SeNPs/kg and combined vaccinated with 0.1 mg/dose showed the best vaccine efficacy. However, the group vaccinated with 0.1 mg/dose showed the earliest reduction in viral shedding. Overall, SeNPs supplementation in the diet and the administration of the vaccine formula with SeNPs could enhance vaccine efficacy and provide better protection against HPAI-H5N1 in chickens by enhancing cellular immunity and reducing inflammation. We recommend using SeNPs as a vaccine combination or feeding with diet to increase the immunity and vaccine efficacy against H5N1.  相似文献   

20.

Background

The AIDS epidemic in Brazil remains concentrated in populations with high vulnerability to HIV infection, and the development of an HIV vaccine could make an important contribution to prevention. This study modeled the HIV epidemic and estimated the potential impact of an HIV vaccine on the number of new infections, deaths due to AIDS and the number of people receiving ARV treatment, under various scenarios.

Methods and Findings

The historical HIV prevalence was modeled using Spectrum and projections were made from 2010 to 2050 to study the impact of an HIV vaccine with 40% to 70% efficacy, and 80% coverage of adult population, specific groups such as MSM, IDU, commercial sex workers and their partners, and 15 year olds. The possibility of disinhibition after vaccination, neglecting medium- and high-risk groups, and a disease-modifying vaccine were also considered. The number of new infections and deaths were reduced by 73% and 30%, respectively, by 2050, when 80% of adult population aged 15–49 was vaccinated with a 40% efficacy vaccine. Vaccinating medium- and high-risk groups reduced new infections by 52% and deaths by 21%. A vaccine with 70% efficacy produced a great decline in new infections and deaths. Neglecting medium- and high-risk population groups as well as disinhibition of vaccinated population reduced the impact or even increased the number of new infections. Disease-modifying vaccine also contributed to reducing AIDS deaths, the need for ART and new HIV infections.

Conclusions

Even in a country with a concentrated epidemic and high levels of ARV coverage, such as Brazil, moderate efficacy vaccines as part of a comprehensive package of treatment and prevention could have a major impact on preventing new HIV infections and AIDS deaths, as well as reducing the number of people on ARV. Targeted vaccination strategies may be highly effective and cost-beneficial.  相似文献   

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