Tenth anniversary of smallpox eradication: Results of epidemiological and virological surveillance and studies in the post-eradication period

In accordance with recommendations of the Global Commission on the certification of smallpox eradication for the 10-year period after the eradication of this infection, all suspected cases of smallpox have been thoroughly checked up, and in none of them the diagnosis of smallpox has been confirmed. The study of monkeypox in humans has revealed that this zoonosis is spread over a wider area than supposed earlier and covers 7 countries of Equatorial Africa, occurring most frequently in Zaire. In about 70% of cases of monkeypox in human the disease is contracted from animals serving as natural virus carriers and in about one-third of such cases, from humans having monkeypox. The infectivity of humans with monkeypox for persons having close contacts with them is somewhat lower (12.3%) than in smallpox when this characteristic varies from 37% to 88%. Monkeypox in humans may take an asymptomatic course. Some species of tropical squirrels serve as natural virus carriers. These investigations have also resulted in essential corrections being made in understanding the ecology of cowpox virus, another orthopoxvirus pathogenic for man. At least 5 species of rodents have proved to be of interest as natural carriers of cowpox virus.     

The changing epidemiology of human monkeypox—A potential threat? A systematic review

Monkeypox, a zoonotic disease caused by an orthopoxvirus, results in a smallpox-like disease in humans. Since monkeypox in humans was initially diagnosed in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), it has spread to other regions of Africa (primarily West and Central), and cases outside Africa have emerged in recent years. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and grey literature on how monkeypox epidemiology has evolved, with particular emphasis on the number of confirmed, probable, and/or possible cases, age at presentation, mortality, and geographical spread. The review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020208269). We identified 48 peer-reviewed articles and 18 grey literature sources for data extraction. The number of human monkeypox cases has been on the rise since the 1970s, with the most dramatic increases occurring in the DRC. The median age at presentation has increased from 4 (1970s) to 21 years (2010–2019). There was an overall case fatality rate of 8.7%, with a significant difference between clades—Central African 10.6% (95% CI: 8.4%– 13.3%) vs. West African 3.6% (95% CI: 1.7%– 6.8%). Since 2003, import- and travel-related spread outside of Africa has occasionally resulted in outbreaks. Interactions/activities with infected animals or individuals are risk behaviors associated with acquiring monkeypox. Our review shows an escalation of monkeypox cases, especially in the highly endemic DRC, a spread to other countries, and a growing median age from young children to young adults. These findings may be related to the cessation of smallpox vaccination, which provided some cross-protection against monkeypox, leading to increased human-to-human transmission. The appearance of outbreaks beyond Africa highlights the global relevance of the disease. Increased surveillance and detection of monkeypox cases are essential tools for understanding the continuously changing epidemiology of this resurging disease.     

猴痘的流行现状及防控

猴痘(monkeypox)是由猴痘病毒感染所致的人兽共患病,主要发生在非洲中部、西部地区。猴痘病毒可感染多种哺乳类动物,主要在动物中流行,人接触感染动物后可被传染。猴痘的临床表现与天花相似(发热、皮疹等),但症状较轻。天花疫苗接种可提供预防猴痘的免疫保护力。然而,因全球天花被消灭而停止接种天花疫苗后,猴痘成为最可能威胁人类的正痘病毒性疾病。近期,其散发病例在欧洲多地出现。2022年5月7日英国报道了猴痘疫情。随后,欧洲报道猴痘确诊和疑似病例超过100例。猴痘主要传播途径包括接触感染动物、与患者直接接触或间接接触。2022年5月20日,世界卫生组织就此次猴痘疫情召开了紧急会议,旨在提高对猴痘的认识,做好防范应对准备。世界卫生组织、美国疾病预防控制中心、英国卫生部门报告了相关疫情并制定了相应的防控措施。截至2022年5月28日我国尚无输入性猴痘报道,但因国际交往频繁等仍须提高警惕。本文介绍了猴痘流行现状及有关防控信息,以供借鉴。     

Human monkey pox: its clinico-epidemiological characteristics

During the course of the smallpox eradication programme, a new eruptive disease clinically resembling smallpox was discovered in Zaire. The disease, which was named monkeypox after the virus, is a zoonosis occurring sporadically in countries of western and central Africa with tropical rain forest. The studies carried out in Zaire from 1980 through 1985 showed that monkeypox affects mainly children in relatively small remote villages whose population has traditionally frequent contacts with wild animals. Apart from the wildlife, the virus can be transmitted from man to man, but among other sources of infection sick persons did not exceed 20%. Presumed human transmission has occurred in 38 out of 61 outbreaks of human monkeypox and only once reached the third and once the fourth generation; the transmission in all affected villages under observation has extinguished itself. Considering the sporadic and relatively rare occurrence of the disease and expected complications following the immunization with vaccinia which protects from monkeypox, introduction of mass vaccination in the areas at risk is hardly justified at present.     

Multiple diagnostic techniques identify previously vaccinated individuals with protective immunity against monkeypox

Approximately 50% of the US population received smallpox vaccinations before routine immunization ceased in 1972 for civilians and in 1990 for military personnel. Several studies have shown long-term immunity after smallpox vaccination, but skepticism remains as to whether this will translate into full protection against the onset of orthopoxvirus-induced disease. The US monkeypox outbreak of 2003 provided the opportunity to examine this issue. Using independent and internally validated diagnostic approaches with >or=95% sensitivity and >or=90% specificity for detecting clinical monkeypox infection, we identified three previously unreported cases of monkeypox in preimmune individuals at 13, 29 and 48 years after smallpox vaccination. These individuals were unaware that they had been infected because they were spared any recognizable disease symptoms. Together, this shows that the US monkeypox outbreak was larger than previously realized and, more importantly, shows that cross-protective antiviral immunity against West African monkeypox can potentially be maintained for decades after smallpox vaccination.     

Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks

Our ability to respond appropriately to infectious diseases is enhanced by identifying differences in the potential for transmitting infection between individuals. Here, we identify epidemiological traits of self-limited infections (i.e. infections with an effective reproduction number satisfying ) that correlate with transmissibility. Our analysis is based on a branching process model that permits statistical comparison of both the strength and heterogeneity of transmission for two distinct types of cases. Our approach provides insight into a variety of scenarios, including the transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Arabian peninsula, measles in North America, pre-eradication smallpox in Europe, and human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. When applied to chain size data for MERS-CoV transmission before 2014, our method indicates that despite an apparent trend towards improved control, there is not enough statistical evidence to indicate that has declined with time. Meanwhile, chain size data for measles in the United States and Canada reveal statistically significant geographic variation in , suggesting that the timing and coverage of national vaccination programs, as well as contact tracing procedures, may shape the size distribution of observed infection clusters. Infection source data for smallpox suggests that primary cases transmitted more than secondary cases, and provides a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of control interventions. Human monkeypox, on the other hand, does not show evidence of differential transmission between animals in contact with humans, primary cases, or secondary cases, which assuages the concern that social mixing can amplify transmission by secondary cases. Lastly, we evaluate surveillance requirements for detecting a change in the human-to-human transmission of monkeypox since the cessation of cross-protective smallpox vaccination. Our studies lay the foundation for future investigations regarding how infection source, vaccination status or other putative transmissibility traits may affect self-limited transmission.     

Proteomic basis of the antibody response to monkeypox virus infection examined in cynomolgus macaques and a comparison to human smallpox vaccination

Monkeypox is a zoonotic viral disease that occurs primarily in Central and West Africa. A recent outbreak in the United States heightened public health concerns for susceptible human populations. Vaccinating with vaccinia virus to prevent smallpox is also effective for monkeypox due to a high degree of sequence conservation. Yet, the identity of antigens within the monkeypox virus proteome contributing to immune responses has not been described in detail. We compared antibody responses to monkeypox virus infection and human smallpox vaccination by using a protein microarray covering 92-95% (166-192 proteins) of representative proteomes from monkeypox viral clades of Central and West Africa, including 92% coverage (250 proteins) of the vaccinia virus proteome as a reference orthopox vaccine. All viral gene clones were verified by sequencing and purified recombinant proteins were used to construct the microarray. Serum IgG of cynomolgus macaques that recovered from monkeypox recognized at least 23 separate proteins within the orthopox proteome, while only 14 of these proteins were recognized by IgG from vaccinated humans. There were 12 of 14 antigens detected by sera of human vaccinees that were also recognized by IgG from convalescent macaques. The greatest level of IgG binding for macaques occurred with the structural proteins F13L and A33R, and the membrane scaffold protein D13L. Significant IgM responses directed towards A44R, F13L and A33R of monkeypox virus were detected before onset of clinical symptoms in macaques. Thus, antibodies from vaccination recognized a small number of proteins shared with pathogenic virus strains, while recovery from infection also involved humoral responses to antigens uniquely recognized within the monkeypox virus proteome.     

天花预防接种面临的挑战与DNA痘苗

介绍美国重新启动种痘的动因,LIR、A27L、A33R、B5R基因痘苗建立、修饰的Ankara痘苗和Lister基因缺失痘苗动物保护力、安全试验、临床研究现状及预防天花、人类猴痘的前景。     

Monkeypox virus: a re-emergent threat to humans

Human monkeypox (MPX) is a rare zoonotic infection characterized by smallpox-like signs and symptoms. It is caused by monkeypox virus (MPXV), a double stranded DNA virus belonging to the genus Orthopoxvirus. MPX was first identified in 1970 and mostly prevailed in the rural rainforests of Central and West Africa in the past. Outside Africa, MPX was reported in the United Kingdom, the USA, Israel, and Singapore. In 2022, the resurgence of MPX in Europe and elsewhere posed a potential threat to humans. MPXV was transmitted by the animals-human or human-human pathway, and the symptoms of MPXV infection are similar to that of smallpox, but in a milder form and with lower mortality (1%–10%). Although the smallpox vaccination has been shown to provide 85% protection against MPXV infection, and two anti-smallpox virus drugs have been approved to treat MPXV, there are still no specific vaccines and drugs against MPXV infection. Therefore it is urgent to take active measures including the adoption of novel anti-MPXV strategies to control the spread of MPXV and prevent MPX epidemic. In this review, we summarize the biological features, epidemiology, pathogenicity, laboratory diagnosis, and prevention and treatment strategies on MPXV. This review provides the basic knowledge for prevention and control of future outbreaks of this emerging infection.     

Coadministration of Cidofovir and Smallpox Vaccine Reduced Vaccination Side Effects but Interfered with Vaccine-Elicited Immune Responses and Immunity to Monkeypox

While the smallpox vaccine, Dryvax or Dryvax-derived ACAM2000, holds potential for public immunization against the spread of smallpox by bioterror, there is serious concern about Dryvax-mediated side effects. Here, we report that a single-dose vaccination regimen comprised of Dryvax and an antiviral agent, cidofovir, could reduce vaccinia viral loads after vaccination and significantly control Dryvax vaccination side effects. However, coadministration of cidofovir and Dryvax also reduced vaccine-elicited immune responses of antibody and T effector cells despite the fact that the reduced priming could be boosted as a recall response after monkeypox virus challenge. Evaluations of four different aspects of vaccine efficacy showed that coadministration of cidofovir and Dryvax compromised the Dryvax-induced immunity against monkeypox, although the covaccinated monkeys exhibited measurable protection against monkeypox compared to that of naïve controls. Thus, the single-dose coadministration of cidofovir and Dryvax effectively controlled vaccination side effects but significantly compromised vaccine-elicited immune responses and vaccine-induced immunity to monkeypox.     

Smallpox DNA vaccine protects nonhuman primates against lethal monkeypox

Two decades after a worldwide vaccination campaign was used to successfully eradicate naturally occurring smallpox, the threat of bioterrorism has led to renewed vaccination programs. In addition, sporadic outbreaks of human monkeypox in Africa and a recent outbreak of human monkeypox in the U.S. have made it clear that naturally occurring zoonotic orthopoxvirus diseases remain a public health concern. Much of the threat posed by orthopoxviruses could be eliminated by vaccination; however, because the smallpox vaccine is a live orthopoxvirus vaccine (vaccinia virus) administered to the skin, the vaccine itself can pose a serious health risk. Here, we demonstrate that rhesus macaques vaccinated with a DNA vaccine consisting of four vaccinia virus genes (L1R, A27L, A33R, and B5R) were protected from severe disease after an otherwise lethal challenge with monkeypox virus. Animals vaccinated with a single gene (L1R) which encodes a target of neutralizing antibodies developed severe disease but survived. This is the first demonstration that a subunit vaccine approach to smallpox-monkeypox immunization is feasible.     

Outbreaks of human monkeypox after cessation of smallpox vaccination

The recent observation of a surge in human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) prompts the question of whether cessation of smallpox vaccination is driving the phenomenon, and if so, why is re-emergence not universal throughout the historic geographic range of the virus? Research addressing the virus's mechanisms for immune evasion and induction, as well as that directed at elucidating the genes involved in pathogenesis in different viral lineages (West African vs Congo Basin), provide insights to help explain why emergence appears to be geographically limited. Novel vaccines offer one solution to curtail the spread of this disease.     

LC16m8, a highly attenuated vaccinia virus vaccine lacking expression of the membrane protein B5R, protects monkeys from monkeypox

The potential threat of smallpox as a bioweapon has led to the production and stockpiling of smallpox vaccine in some countries. Human monkeypox, a rare but important viral zoonosis endemic to central and western Africa, has recently emerged in the United States. Thus, even though smallpox has been eradicated, a vaccinia virus vaccine that can induce protective immunity against smallpox and monkeypox is still invaluable. The ability of the highly attenuated vaccinia virus vaccine strain LC16m8, with a mutation in the important immunogenic membrane protein B5R, to induce protective immunity against monkeypox in nonhuman primates was evaluated in comparison with the parental Lister strain. Monkeys were immunized with LC16m8 or Lister and then infected intranasally or subcutaneously with monkeypox virus strain Liberia or Zr-599, respectively. Immunized monkeys showed no symptoms of monkeypox in the intranasal-inoculation model, while nonimmunized controls showed typical symptoms. In the subcutaneous-inoculation model, monkeys immunized with LC16m8 showed no symptoms of monkeypox except for a mild ulcer at the site of monkeypox virus inoculation, and those immunized with Lister showed no symptoms of monkeypox, while nonimmunized controls showed lethal and typical symptoms. These results indicate that LC16m8 prevents lethal monkeypox in monkeys, and they suggest that LC16m8 may induce protective immunity against smallpox.     

Effects of behavioral changes in a smallpox attack model

The impact of individual and community behavioral changes in response to an outbreak of a disease with high mortality is often not appreciated. Response strategies to a smallpox bioterrorist attack have focused on interventions such as isolation of infectives, contact tracing, quarantine of contacts, ring vaccination, and mass vaccination. We formulate and analyze a mathematical model in which some individuals lower their daily contact activity rates once an epidemic has been identified in a community. Transmission parameters are estimated from data and an expression is derived for the effective reproduction number. We use computer simulations to analyze the effects of behavior change alone and in combination with other control measures. We demonstrate that the spread of the disease is highly sensitive to how rapidly people reduce their contact activity rates and to the precautions that the population takes to reduce the transmission of the disease. Even gradual and mild behavioral changes can have a dramatic impact in slowing an epidemic. When behavioral changes are combined with other interventions, the epidemic is shortened and the number of smallpox cases is reduced. We conclude that for simulations of a smallpox outbreak to be useful, they must consider the impact of behavioral changes. This is especially true if the model predictions are being used to guide public health policy.     

Using Remote Sensing to Map the Risk of Human Monkeypox Virus in the Congo Basin

Although the incidence of human monkeypox has greatly increased in Central Africa over the last decade, resources for surveillance remain extremely limited. We conducted a geospatial analysis using existing data to better inform future surveillance efforts. Using active surveillance data collected between 2005 and 2007, we identified locations in Sankuru district, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) where there have been one or more cases of human monkeypox. To assess what taxa constitute the main reservoirs of monkeypox, we tested whether human cases were associated with (i) rope squirrels (Funisciurus sp.), which were implicated in monkeypox outbreaks elsewhere in the DRC in the 1980s, or (ii) terrestrial rodents in the genera Cricetomys and Graphiurus, which are believed to be monkeypox reservoirs in West Africa. Results suggest that the best predictors of human monkeypox cases are proximity to dense forests and associated habitat preferred by rope squirrels. The risk of contracting monkeypox is significantly greater near sites predicted to be habitable for squirrels (OR?=?1.32; 95% CI 1.08-1.63). We recommend that semi-deciduous rainforests with oil-palm, the rope squirrel's main food source, be prioritized for monitoring.     

Deletion of the monkeypox virus inhibitor of complement enzymes locus impacts the adaptive immune response to monkeypox virus in a nonhuman primate model of infection

Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is an orthopoxvirus closely related to variola virus, the causative agent of smallpox. Human MPXV infection results in a disease that is similar to smallpox and can also be fatal. Two clades of MPXV have been identified, with viruses of the central African clade displaying more pathogenic properties than those within the west African clade. The monkeypox inhibitor of complement enzymes (MOPICE), which is not expressed by viruses of the west African clade, has been hypothesized to be a main virulence factor responsible for increased pathogenic properties of central African strains of MPXV. To gain a better understanding of the role of MOPICE during MPXV-mediated disease, we compared the host adaptive immune response and disease severity following intrabronchial infection with MPXV-Zaire (n = 4), or a recombinant MPXV-Zaire (n = 4) lacking expression of MOPICE in rhesus macaques (RM). Data presented here demonstrate that infection of RM with MPXV leads to significant viral replication in the peripheral blood and lungs and results in the induction of a robust and sustained adaptive immune response against the virus. More importantly, we show that the loss of MOPICE expression results in enhanced viral replication in vivo, as well as a dampened adaptive immune response against MPXV. Taken together, these findings suggest that MOPICE modulates the anti-MPXV immune response and that this protein is not the sole virulence factor of the central African clade of MPXV.     

The evolving epidemiology of monkeypox virus

Monkeypox, caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV), is a zoonotic disease endemic mainly in West and Central Africa. As of 27 September 2022, human monkeypox has occurred in more than 100 countries (mostly in non-endemic regions) and caused over 66,000 confirmed cases, which differs from previous epidemics that mainly affected African countries. Due to the increasing number of confirmed cases worldwide, the World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the monkeypox outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on July 23, 2022. The international outbreak of human monkeypox represents a novel route of transmission for MPXV, with genital lesions as the primary infection, and the emergence of monkeypox in the current outbreak is also new, as novel variants emerge. Clinical physicians and scientists should be aware of this emerging situation, which presents a different scenario from previous outbreaks. In this review, we will discuss the molecular virology, evasion of antiviral immunity, epidemiology, evolution, and detection of MPXV, as well as prophylaxis and treatment strategies for monkeypox. This review also emphasizes the integration of relevant epidemiological data with genomic surveillance data to obtain real-time data, which could formulate prevention and control measures to curb this outbreak.     

Countermeasures to the bioterrorist threat of smallpox

Variola, the agent of smallpox, is a bioterrorist threat, as is monkeypox virus, which also occurs naturally in Africa. Development of countermeasures, in the form of improved vaccines, antiviral drugs, and other therapeutic strategies are a high priority. Recent advances in molecular biology and in animal model development have provided fresh insight into the virulence determinants for smallpox and the pathophysiology of disease. The complex replication cycle for orthopoxviruses, and the pivotal role for viral-specific immunomodulatory proteins which contribute to escape from immunologic surveillance, provide many unique targets for therapeutic intervention. The "toxemia" of smallpox has been elucidated in part by variola-infected primate studies which revealed the central role of apoptosis and the evolution of a cytokine storm leading to hemorrhagic diathesis, resembling fulminent "black" smallpox. This suggests a potential role for therapeutic strategies developed for septic shock, in treatment of smallpox. Drugs licensed for other viruses which share molecular targets with orthopoxviruses (e.g. Cidofovir) or cancer drugs (e.g. Gleevec and other tyrosine kinase inhibitors) have immediate application for treatment of smallpox and monkeypox and provide leads for second generation drugs with higher therapeutic indices. Recent advances in identification of virulence determinants and immune evasion genes facilitate the design of alternative vaccines to replace live vaccinia strains that are unsuitable for a large proportion of individuals in a mass immunization campaign.     

Smallpox vaccine-induced antibodies are necessary and sufficient for protection against monkeypox virus

Vaccination with live vaccinia virus affords long-lasting protection against variola virus, the agent of smallpox. Its mode of protection in humans, however, has not been clearly defined. Here we report that vaccinia-specific B-cell responses are essential for protection of macaques from monkeypox virus, a variola virus ortholog. Antibody-mediated depletion of B cells, but not CD4+ or CD8+ T cells, abrogated vaccine-induced protection from a lethal intravenous challenge with monkeypox virus. In addition, passive transfer of human vaccinia-neutralizing antibodies protected nonimmunized macaques from severe disease. Thus, vaccines able to induce long-lasting protective antibody responses may constitute realistic alternatives to the currently available smallpox vaccine (Dryvax).     

Monkeypox: features of spread after cancellation of mandatory pox immunization

Features of spread of monkeypox after eradication of smallpox and cancellation of mandatory pox immunization are examined. In the condition of cancellation of mandatory pox immunization, a decrease of population immunity to pox in the population, a lack of vigilance in most of the medical specialists to diseases caused by other pathogenic for human orthopoxviruses was noted. This situation complicates the prognosis of the development of possible outbreaks of infection of humans by monkeypox. In such situation only constant vigilance with respect to this zooanthroponosis, use of express diagnostics methods, as well as means of effective protection will allow to stop outbreaks of monkeypox at the early stages of the development.