Thermal tolerance, acclimatory capacity and vulnerability to global climate change

Despite evidence that organismal distributions are shifting in response to recent climatic warming, we have little information on direct links between species' physiology and vulnerability to climate change. We demonstrate a positive relationship between upper thermal tolerance and its acclimatory ability in a well-defined clade of closely related European diving beetles. We predict that species with the lowest tolerance to high temperatures will be most at risk from the adverse effects of future warming, since they have both low absolute thermal tolerance and poor acclimatory ability. Upper thermal tolerance is also positively related to species' geographical range size, meaning that species most at risk are already the most geographically restricted ones, being endemic to Mediterranean mountain systems. Our findings on the relationship between tolerance and acclimatory ability contrast with results from marine animals, suggesting that generalizations regarding thermal tolerance and responses to future rapid climate change may be premature.     

Extreme heat events and the vulnerability of endemic montane fishes to climate change

Identifying how close species live to their physiological thermal maxima is essential to understand historical warm‐edge elevational limits of montane faunas and forecast upslope shifts caused by future climate change. We used laboratory experiments to quantify the thermal tolerance and acclimation potential of four fishes (Notropis leuciodus, N. rubricroceus, Etheostoma rufilineatum, E. chlorobranchium) that are endemic to the southern Appalachian Mountains (USA), exhibit different historical elevational limits, and represent the two most species‐rich families in the region. All‐subsets selection of linear regression models using AIC_c indicated that species, acclimation temperature, collection location and month, and the interaction between species and acclimation temperature were important predictors of thermal maxima (T_max), which ranged from 28.5 to 37.2°C. Next, we implemented water temperature models and stochastic weather generation to characterize the magnitude and frequency of extreme heat events (T_extreme) under historical and future climate scenarios across 25 379 stream reaches in the upper Tennessee River system. Lastly, we used environmental niche models to compare warming tolerances (acclimation‐corrected T_max minus T_extreme) between historically occupied versus unoccupied reaches. Historical warming tolerances, ranging from +2.2 to +10.9°C, increased from low to high elevation and were positive for all species, suggesting that T_max does not drive warm‐edge (low elevation) range limits. Future warming tolerances were lower (?1.2 to +9.3°C) but remained positive for all species under the direst warming scenario except for a small proportion of reaches historically occupied by E. rufilineatum, indicating that T_max and acclimation potentials of southern Appalachian minnows and darters are adequate to survive future heat waves. We caution concluding that these species are invulnerable to 21st century warming because sublethal thermal physiology remains poorly understood. Integrating physiological sensitivity and warming exposure demonstrates a general and fine‐grained approach to assess climate change vulnerability for freshwater organisms across physiographically diverse riverscapes.     

Climate change, species range limits and body size in marine bivalves

We use data on the Pleistocene and modern range limits of Californian marine bivalves to show that species that shifted their geographical ranges in response to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations were preferentially drawn from the large end of the regional body size–frequency distributions. This difference is not due to phylogenetic effects (i.e. dominance of extralimital species by a few large-bodied clades), differences among major ecological categories (burrowing versus surface-dwelling, or suspension feeding versus non-suspension feeding), or differences in modes of reproduction and larval development. In addition, we show that successful invasive species of bivalves in present-day marine habitats also tend to be large-bodied, despite the difference in mechanisms between present-day and Pleistocene range expansions. These results indicate that range limits of large-bodied bivalve species are more unstable than small-bodied ones, and that body size and its correlates need to be considered when attempting to predict the responses of marine communities to climate change, biotic interchanges and human-mediated invasions.     

Species range size distributions for some marine taxa in the Atlantic Ocean. Effect of latitude and depth

The range size distributions of 6643 species in ten different fish and invertebrate taxa dwelling in pelagic (latitudinal range sizes) and benthic (latitudinal and depth range sizes) habitats on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean (80°N−70°S) were studied. The objectives were to analyse: (1) the range size distribution patterns for the various taxa and whether they have right/left skewed or lognormal distributions; (2) the geographical species distributions, to ascertain whether the distribution ranges change with latitude (Rapoport's rule); and (3) the relationship between the depth ranges of benthic species and their maximum depth of occurrence and how depth range size distributions change with latitude. The pelagic taxa exhibited larger range sizes than did the benthic taxa, continental slope/rise species excepted. On the other hand, the boundaries between geographical provinces for both benthic taxa and pelagic taxa tended to occur in association with major oceanographic processes. The shape of the latitudinal range frequency distributions (LRFDs) of the pelagic organisms were distinctly left‐skewed, and the LRFDs for most taxa were significantly different from lognormal. There was no common pattern for the distributions of the benthic organisms, which were lognormal in Cephalopoda, Stomatopoda, and Crustacea Decapoda and tended to be left‐skewed and significantly different from lognormal in Pisces. The applicability of Rapoport's rule was not clearly inferable from the results, and the rule appears to be conditioned by the location of biogeographical boundaries and the endemism rate in the different biogeographical provinces. A clear increase in depth range size with maximum depth range was observable for benthic species, confirming previous studies. Species’ depth range distributions displayed a discernible latitudinal pattern, right‐skewed at high latitudes and left‐skewed at low latitudes. The location of biogeographical boundaries, and endemism rate by biogeographical province were considered to be the factors most useful in explaining species’ distribution patterns and their conformity or nonconformity to Rapoport's rule. © 2003 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2003, 80 , 437–455.     

Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries

Global climate change is impacting and will continue to impact marine and estuarine fish and fisheries. Data trends show global climate change effects ranging from increased oxygen consumption rates in fishes, to changes in foraging and migrational patterns in polar seas, to fish community changes in bleached tropical coral reefs. Projections of future conditions portend further impacts on the distribution and abundance of fishes associated with relatively small temperature changes. Changing fish distributions and abundances will undoubtedly affect communities of humans who harvest these stocks. Coastal-based harvesters (subsistence, commercial, recreational) may be impacted (negatively or positively) by changes in fish stocks due to climate change. Furthermore, marine protected area boundaries, low-lying island countries dependent on coastal economies, and disease incidence (in aquatic organisms and humans) are also affected by a relatively small increase in temperature and sea level. Our interpretations of evidence include many uncertainties about the future of affected fish species and their harvesters. Therefore, there is a need to research the physiology and ecology of marine and estuarine fishes, particularly in the tropics where comparatively little research has been conducted. As a broader and deeper information base accumulates, researchers will be able to make more accurate predictions and forge relevant solutions.     

Climate induced increases in species richness of marine fishes

Climate change has been predicted to lead to changes in local and regional species richness through species extinctions and latitudinal ranges shifts. Here, we show that species richness of fish in the North Sea, a group of ecological and socio-economical importance, has increased over a 22-year period and that this rise is related to higher water temperatures. Over eight times more fish species displayed increased distribution ranges in the North Sea (mainly small-sized species of southerly origin) compared with those whose range decreased (primarily large and northerly species). This increase in species richness can be explained from the fact that fish species richness in general decreases with latitude. This observation confirms that the interaction between large-scale biogeographical patterns and climate change may lead to increasing species richness at temperate latitudes.     

Distinct responses and range shifts of lizard populations across an elevational gradient under climate change

Ongoing climate change has profoundly affected global biodiversity, but its impacts on populations across elevations remain understudied. Using mechanistic niche models incorporating species traits, we predicted ecophysiological responses (activity times, oxygen consumption and evaporative water loss) for lizard populations at high-elevation (<3600 m asl) and extra-high-elevation (≥3600 m asl) under recent (1970–2000) and future (2081–2100) climates. Compared with their high-elevation counterparts, lizards from extra-high-elevation are predicted to experience a greater increase in activity time and oxygen consumption. By integrating these ecophysiological responses into hybrid species distribution models (HSDMs), we were able to make the following predictions under two warming scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5). By 2081–2100, we predict that lizards at both high- and extra-high-elevation will shift upslope; lizards at extra-high-elevation will gain more and lose less habitat than will their high-elevation congeners. We therefore advocate the conservation of high-elevation species in the context of climate change, especially for those populations living close to their lower elevational range limits. In addition, by comparing the results from HSDMs and traditional species distribution models, we highlight the importance of considering intraspecific variation and local adaptation in physiological traits along elevational gradients when forecasting species' future distributions under climate change.     

Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: The promise of biophysical ecology

A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.     

Contemporary climate change hinders hybrid performance of ecologically dominant marine invertebrates

Human activities alter patterns of biodiversity, particularly through species extinctions and range shifts. Two of these activities are human mediated transfer of species and contemporary climate change, and both allow previously isolated genotypes to come into contact and hybridize, potentially altering speciation rates. Hybrids have been shown to survive environmental conditions not tolerated by either parent, suggesting that, under some circumstances, hybrids may be able to expand their ranges and perform well under rapidly changing conditions. However, studies assessing how hybridization influences contemporary range shifts are scarce. We performed crosses on Pyura herdmani and Pyura stolonifera (Chordata, Tunicata), two closely related marine invertebrate species that are ecologically dominant and can hybridize. These sister species live in sympatry along the coasts of southern Africa, but one has a disjunct distribution that includes northern hemisphere sites. We experimentally assessed the performance of hybrid and parental crosses using different temperature regimes, including temperatures predicted under future climate change scenarios. We found that hybrids showed lower performance than parental crosses at the experimental temperatures, suggesting that hybrids are unlikely to expand their ranges to new environments. In turn, we found that the more widespread species performed better at a wide array of temperatures, indicating that this parental species may cope better with future conditions. This study illustrates how offspring fitness may provide key insights to predict range expansions and how contemporary climate change may mediate both the ability of hybrids to expand their ranges and the occurrence of speciation as a result of hybridization.     

Changes to the elevational limits and extent of species ranges associated with climate change

The first expected symptoms of a climate change‐generated biodiversity crisis are range contractions and extinctions at lower elevational and latitudinal limits to species distributions. However, whilst range expansions at high elevations and latitudes have been widely documented, there has been surprisingly little evidence for contractions at warm margins. We show that lower elevational limits for 16 butterfly species in central Spain have risen on average by 212 m (± SE 60) in 30 years, accompanying a 1.3 °C rise (equivalent to c. 225 m) in mean annual temperature. These elevational shifts signify an average reduction in habitable area by one‐third, with losses of 50–80% projected for the coming century, given maintenance of the species thermal associations. The results suggest that many species have already suffered climate‐mediated habitat losses that may threaten their long‐term chances of survival.     

The legacy of past climate and landscape change on species' current experienced climate and elevation ranges across latitude: a multispecies study utilizing mammals in western North America

Aim Elevation and climate ranges across latitude experienced by 21 wide‐ranging mammal species in western North America were summarized to examine two questions: (1) do populations in the northern and southern portions of a species’ range experience different climates or are environments selected to remain similar to climates at the core of ranges; and (2) how do species’ elevational ranges, experienced temperature seasonality and temperature ranges change across latitude? Given the larger effects of climate oscillations in the north vs. the south, a predicted outcome is for species to conserve climate niches across latitude and to show reduced climate and elevation ranges in the north. An alternative outcome is latitudinal niche diversification and increased climate variation in the north. Location Western North America. Methods The questions above were examined using a combination of species occurrence data bases, climate data bases, simple summaries of means and standard deviations and by testing summaries against random distributions across latitude for 21 mammal species from a variety of orders. Results The results showed that: (i) most species conserve their niche strongly or weakly given overall temperature gradients from north to south; (ii) seasonality experienced by species is relatively static until the highest latitudes despite directional trends across the region; and (iii) the elevation range and temperature variation that species experience decreases from south to north. Main conclusions Populations at range edges appear to partition environments to remain closer to temperature values similar to those at the core of the range. In addition, seasonality is not a likely explanatory factor of genetic diversity in latitudinal gradients. The data are instead more consistent with predictions that a combination of higher gene‐flow, increasing environmental instability and decreasing elevation gradients in the north compared to the south may lead to negative correlations between latitude and species’ climate variation. The results corroborate risks faced by northern mammal populations to global climate changes.     

Failure to migrate: lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change

Tree species are expected to track warming climate by shifting their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations, but current evidence of latitudinal range shifts for suites of species is largely indirect. In response to global warming, offspring of trees are predicted to have ranges extend beyond adults at leading edges and the opposite relationship at trailing edges. Large‐scale forest inventory data provide an opportunity to compare present latitudes of seedlings and adult trees at their range limits. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data, we directly compared seedling and tree 5th and 95th percentile latitudes for 92 species in 30 longitudinal bands for 43 334 plots across the eastern United States. We further compared these latitudes with 20th century temperature and precipitation change and functional traits, including seed size and seed spread rate. Results suggest that 58.7% of the tree species examined show the pattern expected for a population undergoing range contraction, rather than expansion, at both northern and southern boundaries. Fewer species show a pattern consistent with a northward shift (20.7%) and fewer still with a southward shift (16.3%). Only 4.3% are consistent with expansion at both range limits. When compared with the 20th century climate changes that have occurred at the range boundaries themselves, there is no consistent evidence that population spread is greatest in areas where climate has changed most; nor are patterns related to seed size or dispersal characteristics. The fact that the majority of seedling extreme latitudes are less than those for adult trees may emphasize the lack of evidence for climate‐mediated migration, and should increase concerns for the risks posed by climate change.     

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species‐based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size‐based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness‐of‐fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter‐specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.     

Predicting range shifts of Davidia involucrata Ball. under future climate change

Understanding and predicting how species will respond to climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed future climate change impacts on the distribution of a rare and endangered plant species, Davidia involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one‐third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high‐latitude regions. Similarly, at least one‐fifth of the overlap area of the current nature reserve networks and projected suitable habitat is also expected to be lost. These findings suggest that it is of great importance to ensure that adaptive conservation management strategies are in place to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.     

Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species'' ecology. We couple a physical–biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30–60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28–89%.