Plant carbon allocation drives turnover of old soil organic matter in permafrost tundra soils

Carbon cycle feedbacks from permafrost ecosystems are expected to accelerate global climate change. Shifts in vegetation productivity and composition in permafrost regions could influence soil organic carbon (SOC) turnover rates via rhizosphere (root zone) priming effects (RPEs), but these processes are not currently accounted for in model predictions. We use a radiocarbon (bomb‐¹⁴C) approach to test for RPEs in two Arctic tall shrubs, alder (Alnus viridis (Chaix) DC.) and birch (Betula glandulosa Michx.), and in ericaceous heath tundra vegetation. We compare surface CO₂ efflux rates and ¹⁴C content between intact vegetation and plots in which below‐ground allocation of recent photosynthate was prevented by trenching and removal of above‐ground biomass. We show, for the first time, that recent photosynthate drives mineralization of older (>50 years old) SOC under birch shrubs and ericaceous heath tundra. By contrast, we find no evidence of RPEs in soils under alder. This is the first direct evidence from permafrost systems that vegetation influences SOC turnover through below‐ground C allocation. The vulnerability of SOC to decomposition in permafrost systems may therefore be directly linked to vegetation change, such that expansion of birch shrubs across the Arctic could increase decomposition of older SOC. Our results suggest that carbon cycle models that do not include RPEs risk underestimating the carbon cycle feedbacks associated with changing conditions in tundra regions.     

Effects of simulated drought on the carbon balance of Everglades short‐hydroperiod marsh

Hydrology drives the carbon balance of wetlands by controlling the uptake and release of CO₂ and CH₄. Longer dry periods in between heavier precipitation events predicted for the Everglades region, may alter the stability of large carbon pools in this wetland's ecosystems. To determine the effects of drought on CO₂ fluxes and CH₄ emissions, we simulated changes in hydroperiod with three scenarios that differed in the onset rate of drought (gradual, intermediate, and rapid transition into drought) on 18 freshwater wetland monoliths collected from an Everglades short‐hydroperiod marsh. Simulated drought, regardless of the onset rate, resulted in higher net CO₂ losses net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the 22‐week manipulation. Drought caused extensive vegetation dieback, increased ecosystem respiration (R_eco), and reduced carbon uptake gross ecosystem exchange (GEE). Photosynthetic potential measured by reflective indices (photochemical reflectance index, water index, normalized phaeophytinization index, and the normalized difference vegetation index) indicated that water stress limited GEE and inhibited R_eco. As a result of drought‐induced dieback, NEE did not offset methane production during periods of inundation. The average ratio of net CH₄ to NEE over the study period was 0.06, surpassing the 100‐year greenhouse warming compensation point for CH₄ (0.04). Drought‐induced diebacks of sawgrass (C₃) led to the establishment of the invasive species torpedograss (C₄) when water was resupplied. These changes in the structure and function indicate that freshwater marsh ecosystems can become a net source of CO₂ and CH₄ to the atmosphere, even following an extended drought. Future changes in precipitation patterns and drought occurrence/duration can change the carbon storage capacity of freshwater marshes from sinks to sources of carbon to the atmosphere. Therefore, climate change will impact the carbon storage capacity of freshwater marshes by influencing water availability and the potential for positive feedbacks on radiative forcing.     

Abrupt changes in Great Britain vegetation carbon projected under climate change

Past abrupt ‘regime shifts’ have been observed in a range of ecosystems due to various forcing factors. Large‐scale abrupt shifts are projected for some terrestrial ecosystems under climate change, particularly in tropical and high‐latitude regions. However, there is very little high‐resolution modelling of smaller‐scale future projected abrupt shifts in ecosystems, and relatively less focus on the potential for abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that numerous climate‐driven abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon are projected in a high‐resolution model of Great Britain's land surface driven by two different climate change scenarios. In each scenario, the effects of climate and CO₂ combined are isolated from the effects of climate change alone. We use a new algorithm to detect and classify abrupt shifts in model time series, assessing the sign and strength of the non‐linear responses. The abrupt ecosystem changes projected are non‐linear responses to climate change, not simply driven by abrupt shifts in climate. Depending on the scenario, 374–1,144 grid cells of 1.5 km × 1.5 km each, comprising 0.5%–1.5% of Great Britain's land area show abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon. We find that abrupt ecosystem shifts associated with increases (rather than decreases) in vegetation carbon, show the greatest potential for early warning signals (rising autocorrelation and variance beforehand). In one scenario, 89% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon show increasing autocorrelation and variance beforehand. Across the scenarios, 81% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon have increasing autocorrelation and 74% increasing variance beforehand, whereas for decreases in vegetation carbon these figures are 56% and 47% respectively. Our results should not be taken as specific spatial or temporal predictions of abrupt ecosystem change. However, they serve to illustrate that numerous abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems could occur in a changing climate, with some early warning signals detectable beforehand.     

Vegetation state changes in the course of shrub encroachment in an African savanna since about 1850 CE and their potential drivers

1. Shrub encroachment has far‐reaching ecological and economic consequences in many ecosystems worldwide. Yet, compositional changes associated with shrub encroachment are often overlooked despite having important effects on ecosystem functioning.
2. We document the compositional change and potential drivers for a northern Namibian Combretum woodland transitioning into a Terminalia shrubland. We use a multiproxy record (pollen, sedimentary ancient DNA, biomarkers, compound‐specific carbon (δ¹³C) and deuterium (δD) isotopes, bulk carbon isotopes (δ¹³Corg), grain size, geochemical properties) from Lake Otjikoto at high taxonomical and temporal resolution.
3. We provide evidence that state changes in semiarid environments may occur on a scale of one century and that transitions between stable states can span around 80 years and are characterized by a unique vegetation composition. We demonstrate that the current grass/woody ratio is exceptional for the last 170 years, as supported by n‐alkane distributions and the δ¹³C and δ¹³Corg records. Comparing vegetation records to environmental proxy data and census data, we infer a complex network of global and local drivers of vegetation change. While our δD record suggests physiological adaptations of woody species to higher atmospheric pCO₂ concentration and drought, our vegetation records reflect the impact of broad‐scale logging for the mining industry, and the macrocharcoal record suggests a decrease in fire activity associated with the intensification of farming. Impact of selective grazing is reflected by changes in abundance and taxonomical composition of grasses and by an increase of nonpalatable and trampling‐resistant taxa. In addition, grain‐size and spore records suggest changes in the erodibility of soils because of reduced grass cover.
4. Synthesis. We conclude that transitions to an encroached savanna state are supported by gradual environmental changes induced by management strategies, which affected the resilience of savanna ecosystems. In addition, feedback mechanisms that reflect the interplay between management legacies and climate change maintain the encroached state.

     

Causes of slowing‐down seasonal CO2 amplitude at Mauna Loa

Changing amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO₂ (SCA) in the northern hemisphere is an emerging carbon cycle property. Mauna Loa (MLO) station (20°N, 156°W), which has the longest continuous northern hemisphere CO₂ record, shows an increasing SCA before the 1980s (p < .01), followed by no significant change thereafter. We analyzed the potential driving factors of SCA slowing‐down, with an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) coupled with an atmospheric transport model. We found that slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is primarily explained by response of net biome productivity (NBP) to climate change, and by changes in atmospheric circulations. Through NBP, climate change increases SCA at MLO before the 1980s and decreases it afterwards. The effect of climate change on the slowing‐down of SCA at MLO is mainly exerted by intensified drought stress acting to offset the acceleration driven by CO₂ fertilization. This challenges the view that CO₂ fertilization is the dominant cause of emergent SCA trends at northern sites south of 40°N. The contribution of agricultural intensification on the deceleration of SCA at MLO was elusive according to land–atmosphere CO₂ flux estimated by DGVMs and atmospheric inversions. Our results also show the necessity to adequately account for changing circulation patterns in understanding carbon cycle dynamics observed from atmospheric observations and in using these observations to benchmark DGVMs.     

Effects of 21st‐century climate,land use,and disturbances on ecosystem carbon balance in California

Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO₂. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001–2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning 4 land use and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models. Between 2001 and 2015, carbon storage in California's terrestrial ecosystems declined by ?188.4 Tg C, with a mean annual flux ranging from a source of ?89.8 Tg C/year to a sink of 60.1 Tg C/year. The large variability in the magnitude of the state's carbon source/sink was primarily attributable to interannual variability in weather and climate, which affected the rate of carbon uptake in vegetation and the rate of ecosystem respiration. Under nearly all future scenarios, carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems was projected to decline, with an average loss of ?9.4% (?432.3 Tg C) by the year 2100 from current stocks. However, uncertainty in the magnitude of carbon loss was high, with individual scenario projections ranging from ?916.2 to 121.2 Tg C and was largely driven by differences in future climate conditions projected by climate models. Moving from a high to a low radiative forcing scenario reduced net ecosystem carbon loss by 21% and when combined with reductions in land‐use change (i.e., moving from a high to a low land‐use scenario), net carbon losses were reduced by 55% on average. However, reconciling large uncertainties associated with the effect of increasing atmospheric CO₂ is needed to better constrain models used to establish baseline conditions from which ecosystem‐based climate mitigation strategies can be evaluated.     

Thawing permafrost increases old soil and autotrophic respiration in tundra: Partitioning ecosystem respiration using δ13C and ∆14C

Ecosystem respiration (R_eco) is one of the largest terrestrial carbon (C) fluxes. The effect of climate change on R_eco depends on the responses of its autotrophic and heterotrophic components. How autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration sources respond to climate change is especially important in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Permafrost ecosystems contain vast stores of soil C (1672 Pg) and are located in northern latitudes where climate change is accelerated. Warming will cause a positive feedback to climate change if heterotrophic respiration increases without corresponding increases in primary production. We quantified the response of autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration to permafrost thaw across the 2008 and 2009 growing seasons. We partitioned R_eco using Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C into four sources–two autotrophic (above – and belowground plant structures) and two heterotrophic (young and old soil). We sampled the Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C of sources using incubations and the Δ¹⁴C and δ¹³C of R_eco using field measurements. We then used a Bayesian mixing model to solve for the most likely contributions of each source to R_eco. Autotrophic respiration ranged from 40 to 70% of R_eco and was greatest at the height of the growing season. Old soil heterotrophic respiration ranged from 6 to 18% of R_eco and was greatest where permafrost thaw was deepest. Overall, growing season fluxes of autotrophic and old soil heterotrophic respiration increased as permafrost thaw deepened. Areas with greater thaw also had the greatest primary production. Warming in permafrost ecosystems therefore leads to increased plant and old soil respiration that is initially compensated by increased net primary productivity. However, barring large shifts in plant community composition, future increases in old soil respiration will likely outpace productivity, resulting in a positive feedback to climate change.     

Convergent ecosystem responses to 23‐year ambient and manipulated warming link advancing snowmelt and shrub encroachment to transient and long‐term climate–soil carbon feedback

Ecosystem responses to climate change can exert positive or negative feedbacks on climate, mediated in part by slow‐moving factors such as shifts in vegetation community composition. Long‐term experimental manipulations can be used to examine such ecosystem responses, but they also present another opportunity: inferring the extent to which contemporary climate change is responsible for slow changes in ecosystems under ambient conditions. Here, using 23 years of data, we document a shift from nonwoody to woody vegetation and a loss of soil carbon in ambient plots and show that these changes track previously shown similar but faster changes under experimental warming. This allows us to infer that climate change is the cause of the observed shifts in ambient vegetation and soil carbon and that the vegetation responses mediate the observed changes in soil carbon. Our findings demonstrate the realism of an experimental manipulation, allow attribution of a climate cause to observed ambient ecosystem changes, and demonstrate how a combination of long‐term study of ambient and experimental responses to warming can identify mechanistic drivers needed for realistic predictions of the conditions under which ecosystems are likely to become carbon sources or sinks over varying timescales.     

Evaluating the responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and CO2 using dynamic global vegetation models

The climate has important influences on the distribution and structure of forest ecosystems, which may lead to vital feedback to climate change. However, much of the existing work focuses on the changes in carbon fluxes or water cycles due to climate change and/or atmospheric CO₂, and few studies have considered how and to what extent climate change and CO₂ influence the ecosystem structure (e.g., fractional coverage change) and the changes in the responses of ecosystems with different characteristics. In this work, two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs): IAP‐DGVM coupled with CLM3 and CLM4‐CNDV, were used to investigate the response of the forest ecosystem structure to changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) and CO₂ concentration. In the temperature sensitivity tests, warming reduced the global area‐averaged ecosystem gross primary production in the two models, which decreased global forest area. Furthermore, the changes in tree fractional coverage (ΔF_tree; %) from the two models were sensitive to the regional temperature and ecosystem structure, i.e., the mean annual temperature (MAT; °C) largely determined whether ΔF_tree was positive or negative, while the tree fractional coverage (F_tree; %) played a decisive role in the amplitude of ΔF_tree around the globe, and the dependence was more remarkable in IAP‐DGVM. In cases with precipitation change, F_tree had a uniformly positive relationship with precipitation, especially in the transition zones of forests (30% < F_tree < 60%) for IAP‐DGVM and in semiarid and arid regions for CLM4‐CNDV. Moreover, ΔF_tree had a stronger dependence on F_tree than on the mean annual precipitation (MAP; mm/year). It was also demonstrated that both models captured the fertilization effects of the CO₂ concentration.     

Antecedent moisture and temperature conditions modulate the response of ecosystem respiration to elevated CO2 and warming

Terrestrial plant and soil respiration, or ecosystem respiration (R_eco), represents a major CO₂ flux in the global carbon cycle. However, there is disagreement in how R_eco will respond to future global changes, such as elevated atmosphere CO₂ and warming. To address this, we synthesized six years (2007–2012) of R_eco data from the Prairie Heating And CO₂ Enrichment (PHACE) experiment. We applied a semi‐mechanistic temperature–response model to simultaneously evaluate the response of R_eco to three treatment factors (elevated CO₂, warming, and soil water manipulation) and their interactions with antecedent soil conditions [e.g., past soil water content (SWC) and temperature (SoilT)] and aboveground factors (e.g., vapor pressure deficit, photosynthetically active radiation, vegetation greenness). The model fits the observed R_eco well (R² = 0.77). We applied the model to estimate annual (March–October) R_eco, which was stimulated under elevated CO₂ in most years, likely due to the indirect effect of elevated CO₂ on SWC. When aggregated from 2007 to 2012, total six‐year R_eco was stimulated by elevated CO₂ singly (24%) or in combination with warming (28%). Warming had little effect on annual R_eco under ambient CO₂, but stimulated it under elevated CO₂ (32% across all years) when precipitation was high (e.g., 44% in 2009, a ‘wet’ year). Treatment‐level differences in R_eco can be partly attributed to the effects of antecedent SoilT and vegetation greenness on the apparent temperature sensitivity of R_eco and to the effects of antecedent and current SWC and vegetation activity (greenness modulated by VPD) on R_eco base rates. Thus, this study indicates that the incorporation of both antecedent environmental conditions and aboveground vegetation activity are critical to predicting R_eco at multiple timescales (subdaily to annual) and under a future climate of elevated CO₂ and warming.     

Multi‐factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far‐reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO₂, warming, drought) in a Danish heathland ecosystem. The experiment was established in 2005 as a full factorial split‐plot with 6 blocks × 2 levels of CO₂ × 2 levels of warming × 2 levels of drought = 48 plots. In 2008, we exposed 432 larvae (n = 9 per plot) of the heather beetle (Lochmaea suturalis Thomson ), an important herbivore on heather, to ambient versus elevated drought, temperature, and CO₂ (plus all combinations) for 5 weeks. Larval weight and survival were highest under ambient conditions and decreased significantly with the number of climate change drivers. Weight was lowest under the drought treatment, and there was a three‐way interaction between time, CO₂, and drought. Survival was lowest when drought, warming, and elevated CO₂ were combined. Effects of climate change drivers depended on other co‐acting factors and were mediated by changes in plant secondary compounds, nitrogen, and water content. Overall, drought was the most important factor for this insect herbivore. Our study shows that weight and survival of insect herbivores may decline under future climate. The complexity of insect herbivore responses increases with the number of combined climate change drivers.     

Vascular plants promote ancient peatland carbon loss with climate warming

Northern peatlands have accumulated one third of the Earth's soil carbon stock since the last Ice Age. Rapid warming across northern biomes threatens to accelerate rates of peatland ecosystem respiration. Despite compensatory increases in net primary production, greater ecosystem respiration could signal the release of ancient, century‐ to millennia‐old carbon from the peatland organic matter stock. Warming has already been shown to promote ancient peatland carbon release, but, despite the key role of vegetation in carbon dynamics, little is known about how plants influence the source of peatland ecosystem respiration. Here, we address this issue using in situ ¹⁴C measurements of ecosystem respiration on an established peatland warming and vegetation manipulation experiment. Results show that warming of approximately 1 °C promotes respiration of ancient peatland carbon (up to 2100 years old) when dwarf‐shrubs or graminoids are present, an effect not observed when only bryophytes are present. We demonstrate that warming likely promotes ancient peatland carbon release via its control over organic inputs from vascular plants. Our findings suggest that dwarf‐shrubs and graminoids prime microbial decomposition of previously ‘locked‐up’ organic matter from potentially deep in the peat profile, facilitating liberation of ancient carbon as CO₂. Furthermore, such plant‐induced peat respiration could contribute up to 40% of ecosystem CO₂ emissions. If consistent across other subarctic and arctic ecosystems, this represents a considerable fraction of ecosystem respiration that is currently not acknowledged by global carbon cycle models. Ultimately, greater contribution of ancient carbon to ecosystem respiration may signal the loss of a previously stable peatland carbon pool, creating potential feedbacks to future climate change.     

Accumulation of soil carbon under elevated CO2 unaffected by warming and drought

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change may substantially alter soil carbon (C) dynamics, which in turn may impact future climate through feedback cycles. However, only very few field experiments worldwide have combined elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) with both warming and changes in precipitation in order to study the potential combined effects of changes in these fundamental drivers of C cycling in ecosystems. We exposed a temperate heath/grassland to eCO₂, warming, and drought, in all combinations for 8 years. At the end of the study, soil C stocks were on average 0.927 kg C/m² higher across all treatment combinations with eCO₂ compared to ambient CO₂ treatments (equal to an increase of 0.120 ± 0.043 kg C m^?2 year^?1), and showed no sign of slowed accumulation over time. However, if observed pretreatment differences in soil C are taken into account, the annual rate of increase caused by eCO₂ may be as high as 0.177 ± 0.070 kg C m^?2 year^?1. Furthermore, the response to eCO₂ was not affected by simultaneous exposure to warming and drought. The robust increase in soil C under eCO₂ observed here, even when combined with other climate change factors, suggests that there is continued and strong potential for enhanced soil carbon sequestration in some ecosystems to mitigate increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations under future climate conditions. The feedback between land C and climate remains one of the largest sources of uncertainty in future climate projections, yet experimental data under simulated future climate, and especially including combined changes, are still scarce. Globally coordinated and distributed experiments with long‐term measurements of changes in soil C in response to the three major climate change‐related global changes, eCO₂, warming, and changes in precipitation patterns, are, therefore, urgently needed.     

Variability in exchange of CO2 across 12 northern peatland and tundra sites

Many wetland ecosystems such as peatlands and wet tundra hold large amounts of organic carbon (C) in their soils, and are thus important in the terrestrial C cycle. We have synthesized data on the carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange obtained from eddy covariance measurements from 12 wetland sites, covering 1–7 years at each site, across Europe and North America, ranging from ombrotrophic and minerotrophic peatlands to wet tundra ecosystems, spanning temperate to arctic climate zones. The average summertime net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE) was highly variable between sites. However, all sites with complete annual datasets, seven in total, acted as annual net sinks for atmospheric CO₂. To evaluate the influence of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R_eco) on NEE, we first removed the artificial correlation emanating from the method of partitioning NEE into GPP and R_eco. After this correction neither R_eco (P= 0.162) nor GPP (P= 0.110) correlated significantly with NEE on an annual basis. Spatial variation in annual and summertime R_eco was associated with growing season period, air temperature, growing degree days, normalized difference vegetation index and vapour pressure deficit. GPP showed weaker correlations with environmental variables as compared with R_eco, the exception being leaf area index (LAI), which correlated with both GPP and NEE, but not with R_eco. Length of growing season period was found to be the most important variable describing the spatial variation in summertime GPP and R_eco; global warming will thus cause these components to increase. Annual GPP and NEE correlated significantly with LAI and pH, thus, in order to predict wetland C exchange, differences in ecosystem structure such as leaf area and biomass as well as nutritional status must be taken into account.     

Temperature and substrate controls on intra-annual variation in ecosystem respiration in two subarctic vegetation types

Arctic ecosystems are important in the context of climate change because they are expected to undergo the most rapid temperature increases, and could provide a globally significant release of CO₂ to the atmosphere from their extensive bulk soil organic carbon reserves. Understanding the relative contributions of bulk soil organic matter and plant‐associated carbon pools to ecosystem respiration is critical to predicting the response of arctic ecosystem net carbon balance to climate change. In this study, we determined the variation in ecosystem respiration rates from birch forest understory and heath tundra vegetation types in northern Sweden through a full annual cycle. We used a plant biomass removal treatment to differentiate bulk soil organic matter respiration from total ecosystem respiration in each vegetation type. Plant‐associated and bulk soil organic matter carbon pools each contributed significantly to ecosystem respiration during most phases of winter and summer in the two vegetation types. Ecosystem respiration rates through the year did not differ significantly between vegetation types despite substantial differences in biomass pools, soil depth and temperature regime. Most (76–92%) of the intra‐annual variation in ecosystem respiration rates from these two common mesic subarctic ecosystems was explained using a first‐order exponential equation relating respiration to substrate chemical quality and soil temperature. Removal of plants and their current year's litter significantly reduced the sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to intra‐annual variations in soil temperature for both vegetation types, indicating that respiration derived from recent plant carbon fixation was more temperature sensitive than respiration from bulk soil organic matter carbon stores. Accurate assessment of the potential for positive feedbacks from high‐latitude ecosystems to CO₂‐induced climate change will require the development of ecosystem‐level physiological models of net carbon exchange that differentiate the responses of major C pools, that account for effects of vegetation type, and that integrate over summer and winter seasons.     

Large‐scale variations in the vegetation growing season and annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 at high northern latitudes from 1950 to 2011

We combine satellite and ground observations during 1950–2011 to study the long‐term links between multiple climate (air temperature and cryospheric dynamics) and vegetation (greenness and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations) indicators of the growing season of northern ecosystems (>45°N) and their connection with the carbon cycle. During the last three decades, the thermal potential growing season has lengthened by about 10.5 days (P < 0.01, 1982–2011), which is unprecedented in the context of the past 60 years. The overall lengthening has been stronger and more significant in Eurasia (12.6 days, P < 0.01) than North America (6.2 days, P > 0.05). The photosynthetic growing season has closely tracked the pace of warming and extension of the potential growing season in spring, but not in autumn when factors such as light and moisture limitation may constrain photosynthesis. The autumnal extension of the photosynthetic growing season since 1982 appears to be about half that of the thermal potential growing season, yielding a smaller lengthening of the photosynthetic growing season (6.7 days at the circumpolar scale, P < 0.01). Nevertheless, when integrated over the growing season, photosynthetic activity has closely followed the interannual variations and warming trend in cumulative growing season temperatures. This lengthening and intensification of the photosynthetic growing season, manifested principally over Eurasia rather than North America, is associated with a long‐term increase (22.2% since 1972, P < 0.01) in the amplitude of the CO₂ annual cycle at northern latitudes. The springtime extension of the photosynthetic and potential growing seasons has apparently stimulated earlier and stronger net CO₂ uptake by northern ecosystems, while the autumnal extension is associated with an earlier net release of CO₂ to the atmosphere. These contrasting responses may be critical in determining the impact of continued warming on northern terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.     

When vegetation change alters ecosystem water availability

The combined effects of vegetation and climate change on biosphere–atmosphere water vapor (H₂O) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchanges are expected to vary depending, in part, on how biotic activity is controlled by and alters water availability. This is particularly important when a change in ecosystem composition alters the fractional covers of bare soil, grass, and woody plants so as to influence the accessibility of shallower vs. deeper soil water pools. To study this, we compared 5 years of eddy covariance measurements of H₂O and CO₂ fluxes over a riparian grassland, shrubland, and woodland. In comparison with the surrounding upland region, groundwater access at the riparian sites increased net carbon uptake (NEP) and evapotranspiration (ET), which were sustained over more of the year. Among the sites, the grassland used less of the stable groundwater resource, and increasing woody plant density decoupled NEP and ET from incident precipitation (P), resulting in greater exchange rates that were less variable year to year. Despite similar gross patterns, how groundwater accessibility affected NEP was more complex than ET. The grassland had higher respiration (R_eco) costs. Thus, while it had similar ET and gross carbon uptake (GEP) to the shrubland, grassland NEP was substantially less. Also, grassland carbon fluxes were more variable due to occasional flooding at the site, which both stimulated and inhibited NEP depending upon phenology. Woodland NEP was large, but surprisingly similar to the less mature, sparse shrubland, even while having much greater GEP. Woodland R_eco was greater than the shrubland and responded strongly and positively to P, which resulted in a surprising negative NEP response to P. This is likely due to the large accumulation of carbon aboveground and in the surface soil. These long‐term observations support the strong role that water accessibility can play when determining the consequences of ecosystem vegetation change.     

Time lag and negative responses of forest greenness and tree growth to warming over circumboreal forests

The terrestrial forest ecosystems in the northern high latitude region have been experiencing significant warming rates over several decades. These forests are considered crucial to the climate system and global carbon cycle and are particularly vulnerable to climate change. To obtain an improved estimate of the response of vegetation activity, e.g., forest greenness and tree growth, to climate change, we investigated spatiotemporal variations in two independent data sets containing the dendroecological information for this region over the past 30 years. These indices are the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) and the tree‐ring width index (RWI), both of which showed significant spatial variability in past trends and responses to climate changes. These trends and responses to climate change differed significantly in the ecosystems of the circumarctic (latitude higher than 67°N) and the circumboreal forests (latitude higher and lower than 50°N and 67°N, respectively), but the way in which they differed was relatively similar in the NDVI3g and the RWI. In the circumarctic ecosystem, the climate variables of the current summer were the main climatic drivers for the positive response to the increase in temperatures showed by both the NDVI3g and the RWI indices. On the other hand, in the circumboreal forest ecosystem, the climate variables of the previous year (from summer to winter) were also important climatic drivers for both the NDVI3g and the RWI. Importantly, both indices showed that the temperatures in the previous year negatively affected the ecosystem. Although such negative responses to warming did not necessarily lead to a past negative linear trend in the NDVI3g and the RWI over the past 30 years, future climate warming could potentially cause severe reduction in forest greenness and tree growth in the circumboreal forest ecosystem.     

Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (M_tot) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (l_gs) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re‐analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum‐likelihood model selection, independent‐effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by M_tot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of M_tot, both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that l_gs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (T_ann and P_ann), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale.     

Effect of climate change,CO2 trends,nitrogen addition,and land‐cover and management intensity changes on the carbon balance of European grasslands

Several lines of evidence point to European managed grassland ecosystems being a sink of carbon. In this study, we apply ORCHIDEE‐GM a process‐based carbon cycle model that describes specific management practices of pastures and the dynamics of carbon cycling in response to changes in climatic and biogeochemical drivers. The model is used to simulate changes in the carbon balance [i.e., net biome production (NBP)] of European grasslands over 1991–2010 on a 25 km × 25 km grid. The modeled average trend in NBP is 1.8–2.0 g C m^?2 yr^?2 during the past two decades. Attribution of this trend suggests management intensity as the dominant driver explaining NBP trends in the model (36–43% of the trend due to all drivers). A major change in grassland management intensity has occurred across Europe resulting from reduced livestock numbers. This change has ‘inadvertently’ enhanced soil C sequestration and reduced N₂O and CH₄ emissions by 1.2–1.5 Gt CO₂‐equivalent, offsetting more than 7% of greenhouse gas emissions in the whole European agricultural sector during the period 1991–2010. Land‐cover change, climate change and rising CO₂ also make positive and moderate contributions to the NBP trend (between 24% and 31% of the trend due to all drivers). Changes in nitrogen addition (including fertilization and atmospheric deposition) are found to have only marginal net effect on NBP trends. However, this may not reflect reality because our model has only a very simple parameterization of nitrogen effects on photosynthesis. The sum of NBP trends from each driver is larger than the trend obtained when all drivers are varied together, leaving a residual – nonattributed – term (22–26% of the trend due to all drivers) indicating negative interactions between drivers.