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1.
Northeast China Transect (NECT), one of the fifteen International Biosphere-Geosphere Programme (IGBP) terrestrial transects, has been established for 10 years by Prof. Zhang Xin-Shi, through a core project of the IGBP - the Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE). This transect is located in the mid-latitude semi-arid region, ranging 42-46°N latitude and 110-132癊 longitude. The primary driving force for global change is precipitation and the secondary one is land use intensity. Research progresses have been performed during the past decade in the following aspects: ecological database development, climate and its variability, ecophysiological response of plants to environments, vegetation and landscape changes, biodiversity patterns and their changes, plant functional types and traits with relation to climatic gradient, productivity and carbon dynamics, pollen-vegetation relationship, trace gas emissions, land use and land cover changes, as well as biogeographical and biogeochemical modelling. In order to achieve the higher level of integrated research, the NECT needs the consistent basic data sets within the same framework, further field experiments and observations, integrated simulations of vegetation structure, process and function from patch, landscape to biome scales, intercomparisons of results and simulations within the transect and to other IGBP transects, multidisciplinary research, national and international co-ordinates, and full scientific plan and implementation strategy.  相似文献   

2.
    
Ecological restoration projects (ERPs) are an indispensable component of natural climate solutions and have proven to be very important for reversing environmental degradation in vulnerable regions and enhancing ecosystem services. However, the level of enhancement would be inevitably influenced by global drought and rising CO2, which remain less investigated. In this study, we took the Beijing-Tianjin sand source region (which has experienced long-term ERPs), China, as an example and combined the process-based Biome-BGCMuSo model to set multiple scenarios to address this issue. We found ERP-induced carbon sequestration (CS), water retention (WR), soil retention (SR), and sandstorm prevention (SP) increased by 22.21%, 2.87%, 2.35%, and 28.77%, respectively. Moreover, the ecosystem services promotion from afforestation was greater than that from grassland planting. Approximately 91.41%, 98.13%, and 64.51% of the increased CS, SR, and SP were contributed by afforestation. However, afforestation also caused the WR to decline. Although rising CO2 amplified ecosystem services contributed by ERPs, it was almost totally offset by drought. The contribution of ERPs to CS, WR, SR, and SP was reduced by 5.74%, 32.62%, 11.74%, and 14.86%, respectively, under combined drought and rising CO2. Our results confirmed the importance of ERPs in strengthening ecosystem services provision. Furthermore, we provide a quantitative way to understand the influence rate of drought and rising CO2 on ERP-induced ecosystem service dynamics. In addition, the considerable negative climate change impact implied that restoration strategies should be optimized to improve ecosystem resilience to better combat negative climate change impacts.  相似文献   

3.
中国东北样带(NECT):十年集成与未来挑战   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
作为“国际地圈-生物圈计划(IGBP)”的15条陆地样带之一,中国东北样带(Northeast China Transect,NECT)在IGBP核心项目“全球变化与陆地生态系统(GCTE)”中已经建立10年之久。该样带位于中纬度温带半干旱地区,跨越北纬42~46,东经110~132,其主要全球变化驱动因素为降水,次要驱动因素为土地利用强度。在过去的10年里,中国东北样带的研究进展表现在以下几个方面:生态数据库发展、气候及其变异性、植物对环境的生态生理响应、植被和景观变化、生物多样性格局及其变化、植物功能型和植物性状及气候梯度分析、生产力和碳动态、花粉-植被相互关系、痕量气体放散、土地利用和土地覆盖变化以及生物地理和生物地球化学模拟。为达到更高水平的集成研究,中国东北样带今后需要:统一框架下的坚实的基础数据集、进一步的野外实验和观测、从斑块、景观到生物群区尺度的植被结构、过程和功能的集成模拟、样带内和与其他IGBP样带研究结果的相互比较、多学科交叉研究、国内和国际协作以及完整的科学计划和实施对策。  相似文献   

4.
全球变化与生态系统研究是一个宏观与微观相互交叉、多学科相互渗透的前沿科学领域, 重点研究生态系统结构和功能对全球变化的响应及反馈作用, 其目标是实现人类对生态系统服务的可持续利用。《植物生态学报》的《全球变化与生态系统》专辑在对国内外全球变化研究进行历史回顾和综合分析的基础上, 总结了全球变化与生态系统研究的阶段性重大进展及存在的主要问题, 并对全球变化研究的前沿方向进行展望和建议。根据研究内容和对象, 该专辑系统地综述了不同全球变化因子, 包括CO2和O3浓度升高、气候变暖、降水格局改变、氮沉降增加、土地利用变化等对陆地植物生理生态、群落结构及生态系统功能等的影响以及全球变化对海洋生态系统的影响; 探讨生态系统关键过程以及生物多样性的变化; 在明确全球变化生态效应的基础上, 阐明这些影响对气候和环境变化的反馈机制, 为构筑全球变化的适应对策提供生态学理论基础。  相似文献   

5.
    
Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels’ changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ‐GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained.  相似文献   

6.
Terrestrial models and global change: challenges for the future   总被引:12,自引:0,他引:12  
A wide variety of models have illustrated the potential importance of terrestrial biological feedbacks on climate and climate change; yet our ability to make precise predictions is severely limited, due to a high degree of uncertainty. In this paper, after briefly reviewing current models, we present challenges for new terrestrial models and introduce a simple mechanistic approach that may complement existing approaches.  相似文献   

7.
胡莹洁  李月  孔祥斌  段增强  陆明环 《生态学报》2018,38(13):4625-4636
分析北京市农用地碳储量对土地利用变化的响应,对快速城市化和工业化区域及全国农用地低碳利用调控具有重要意义。利用1980年第二次土壤普查数据与2010年测土配方施肥项目成果土壤数据核算北京市农用地表层土壤碳储量,利用生物量遥感信息(NDVI)模型反演林地、草地植被碳储量,对北京市土地利用变化造成的农用地碳储量变化进行研究,结果表明:1)1980-2010年,北京市农用地碳储量由75.29 Tg-C增至81.13Tg-C,增加5.83 Tg-C,其中,土壤碳储量减少7.51 Tg-C,植被碳储量增加13.34 Tg-C;2)30年间,北京市农用地面积减少14.11×104 hm2,其中,耕地流失最为显著,主要去向为建设用地和林地,林地面积略有增加;3)北京市用地类型保持不变的农用地土壤碳储量减少297.63×104 t,植被碳储量增加1095.21×104 t,共计增加797.58×104 t,其中,用地类型保持不变的耕地、林地碳储量增加,草地碳储量减少;4)30年间,土地利用类型转化使北京市农用地土壤碳储量减少75.71×104 t,植被碳储量增加212.49×104 t,共计增加136.78×104 t,其他用地类型转为林地使碳储量增加,有利于碳汇的形成,林地转出为其他用地类型均会造成一定碳排放;5)平原造林、退耕还林等工程有利于增加北京市农用地固碳量。未来北京市可通过控制农用地面积减少量,优化农用地内部结构,降低用地类型间的转换频率以提高农用地碳储量。研究可为其他区域及全国在快速城市化工业化过程中提升农用地碳储量提供一定参考。  相似文献   

8.
A nonequilibrium, dynamic, global vegetation model, Hybrid v4.1, with a subdaily timestep, was driven by increasing CO2 and transient climate output from the UK Hadley Centre GCM (HadCM2) with simulated daily and interannual variability. Three IPCC emission scenarios were used: (i) IS92a, giving 790 ppm CO2 by 2100, (ii) CO2 stabilization at 750 ppm by 2225, and (iii) CO2 stabilization at 550 ppm by 2150. Land use and future N deposition were not included. In the IS92a scenario, boreal and tropical lands warmed 4.5 °C by 2100 with rainfall decreased in parts of the tropics, where temperatures increased over 6 °C in some years and vapour pressure deficits (VPD) doubled. Stabilization at 750 ppm CO2 delayed these changes by about 100 years while stabilization at 550 ppm limited the rise in global land surface temperature to 2.5 °C and lessened the appearance of relatively hot, dry areas in the tropics. Present‐day global predictions were 645 PgC in vegetation, 1190 PgC in soils, a mean carbon residence time of 40 years, NPP 47 PgC y?1 and NEP (the terrestrial sink) about 1 PgC y?1, distributed at both high and tropical latitudes. With IS92a emissions, the high latitude sink increased to the year 2100, as forest NPP accelerated and forest vegetation carbon stocks increased. The tropics became a source of CO2 as forest dieback occurred in relatively hot, dry areas in 2060–2080. High VPDs and temperatures reduced NPP in tropical forests, primarily by reducing stomatal conductance and increasing maintenance respiration. Global NEP peaked at 3–4 PgC y?1 in 2020–2050 and then decreased abruptly to near zero by 2100 as the tropical source offset the high‐latitude sink. The pattern of change in NEP was similar with CO2 stabilization at 750 ppm, but was delayed by about 100 years and with a less abrupt collapse in global NEP. CO2 stabilization at 550 ppm prevented sustained tropical forest dieback and enabled recovery to occur in favourable years, while maintaining a similar time course of global NEP as occurred with 750 ppm stabilization. By lessening dieback, stabilization increased the fraction of carbon emissions taken up by the land. Comparable studies and other evidence are discussed: climate‐induced tropical forest dieback is considered a plausible risk of following an unmitigated emissions scenario.  相似文献   

9.
    
Protected areas (PAs) cover about 22% of the conterminous United States. Understanding their role on historical land use and land cover change (LULCC) and on the carbon cycle is essential to provide guidance for environmental policies. In this study, we compiled historical LULCC and PAs data to explore these interactions within the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM). We found that intensive LULCC occurred in the conterminous United States from 1700 to 2005. More than 3 million km2 of forest, grassland and shrublands were converted into agricultural lands, which caused 10,607 Tg C release from land ecosystems to atmosphere. PAs had experienced little LULCC as they were generally established in the 20th century after most of the agricultural expansion had occurred. PAs initially acted as a carbon source due to land use legacies, but their accumulated carbon budget switched to a carbon sink in the 1960s, sequestering an estimated 1,642 Tg C over 1700–2005, or 13.4% of carbon losses in non‐PAs. We also find that PAs maintain larger carbon stocks and continue sequestering carbon in recent years (2001–2005), but at a lower rate due to increased heterotrophic respiration as well as lower productivity associated to aging ecosystems. It is essential to continue efforts to maintain resilient, biodiverse ecosystems and avoid large‐scale disturbances that would release large amounts of carbon in PAs.  相似文献   

10.
    
Decomposition of soil carbon stocks is one of the largest potential biotic feedbacks to climate change. Models of decomposition of soil organic matter and of soil respiration rely on empirical functions that relate variation in temperature and soil water content to rates of microbial metabolism using soil‐C substrates. Here, we describe a unifying modeling framework to combine the effects of temperature, soil water content, and soluble substrate supply on decomposition of soluble soil‐C substrates using simple functions based on process concepts. The model's backbone is the Michaelis–Menten equation, which describes the relationship between reaction velocity and soluble organic‐C and O2 substrate concentrations at an enzyme's reactive site, which are determined by diffusivity functions based on soil water content. Temperature sensitivity is simulated by allowing the maximum velocity of the reaction (Vmax) to vary according to Arrhenius function. The Dual Arrhenius and Michaelis–Menten kinetics (DAMM) model core was able to predict effectively observations from of laboratory enzyme assays of β‐glucosidase and phenol‐oxidase across a range of substrate concentrations and incubation temperatures. The model also functioned as well or better than purely empirical models for simulating hourly and seasonal soil respiration data from a trenched plot in a deciduous forest at the Harvard Forest, in northeastern United States. The DAMM model demonstrates that enzymatic processes can be intrinsically temperature sensitive, but environmental constrains of substrate supply under soil moisture extremes can prevent that response to temperature from being observed. We discuss how DAMM could serve as a core module that is informed by other modules regarding microbial dynamics and supply of soluble‐C substrates from plant inputs and from desorption of physically stabilized soil‐C pools. Most importantly, it presents a way forward from purely empirical representation of temperature and moisture responses and integrates temperature‐sensitive enzymatic processes with constraints of substrate supply.  相似文献   

11.
土地利用变化对土壤有机碳的影响研究进展   总被引:20,自引:0,他引:20       下载免费PDF全文
陈朝  吕昌河  范兰  武红 《生态学报》2011,31(18):5358-5371
土壤有机碳是陆地碳库的重要组成部分,也是当前全球碳循环和全球变化研究的热点。土地利用/覆被变化及土地管理变化通过影响土壤有机碳的储量和分布,进而影响温室气体排放和陆地生态系统的碳通量。研究土地利用变化影响下的土壤有机碳储量及其动态变化规律,有助于加深理解全球气候变化与土地利用变化之间的关系。在阅读国内外有关文献的基础上,分别从土地利用及其管理方式变化的角度,概括了土地利用变化对土壤有机碳的影响过程与机理;针对当前研究的两大类方法,即实验方法和模型方法,分类详细介绍了它们各自的特点以及存在的一些问题。在此基础上,提出今后土地利用变化对土壤有机碳影响研究的发展趋势。  相似文献   

12.
    
The Global Carbon Project (GCP) has published global carbon budgets annually since 2007 (Canadell et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 18866–18870; Raupach et al. [2007], Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 104, 10288–10293). There are many scientists involved, but the terrestrial fluxes that appear in the budgets are not well understood by ecologists and biogeochemists outside of that community. The purpose of this paper is to make the terrestrial fluxes of carbon in those budgets more accessible to a broader community. The GCP budget is composed of annual perturbations from pre‐industrial conditions, driven by addition of carbon to the system from combustion of fossil fuels and by transfers of carbon from land to the atmosphere as a result of land use. The budget includes a term for each of the major fluxes of carbon (fossil fuels, oceans, land) as well as the rate of carbon accumulation in the atmosphere. Land is represented by two terms: one resulting from direct anthropogenic effects (Land Use, Land‐Use Change, and Forestry or land management) and one resulting from indirect anthropogenic (e.g., CO2, climate change) and natural effects. Each of these two net terrestrial fluxes of carbon, in turn, is composed of opposing gross emissions and removals (e.g., deforestation and forest regrowth). Although the GCP budgets have focused on the two net terrestrial fluxes, they have paid little attention to the gross components, which are important for a number of reasons, including understanding the potential for land management to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and understanding the processes responsible for the sink for carbon on land. In contrast to the net fluxes of carbon, which are constrained by the global carbon budget, the gross fluxes are largely unconstrained, suggesting that there is more uncertainty than commonly believed about how terrestrial carbon emissions will respond to future fossil fuel emissions and a changing climate.  相似文献   

13.
    
No consensus has yet been reached on the major factors driving the observed increase in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 in the northern latitudes. In this study, we used atmospheric CO2 records from 26 northern hemisphere stations with a temporal coverage longer than 15 years, and an atmospheric transport model prescribed with net biome productivity (NBP) from an ensemble of nine terrestrial ecosystem models, to attribute change in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2. We found significant (p < .05) increases in seasonal peak‐to‐trough CO2 amplitude (AMPP‐T) at nine stations, and in trough‐to‐peak amplitude (AMPT‐P) at eight stations over the last three decades. Most of the stations that recorded increasing amplitudes are in Arctic and boreal regions (>50°N), consistent with previous observations that the amplitude increased faster at Barrow (Arctic) than at Mauna Loa (subtropics). The multi‐model ensemble mean (MMEM) shows that the response of ecosystem carbon cycling to rising CO2 concentration (eCO2) and climate change are dominant drivers of the increase in AMPP‐T and AMPT‐P in the high latitudes. At the Barrow station, the observed increase of AMPP‐T and AMPT‐P over the last 33 years is explained by eCO2 (39% and 42%) almost equally than by climate change (32% and 35%). The increased carbon losses during the months with a net carbon release in response to eCO2 are associated with higher ecosystem respiration due to the increase in carbon storage caused by eCO2 during carbon uptake period. Air‐sea CO2 fluxes (10% for AMPP‐T and 11% for AMPT‐P) and the impacts of land‐use change (marginally significant 3% for AMPP‐T and 4% for AMPT‐P) also contributed to the CO2 measured at Barrow, highlighting the role of these factors in regulating seasonal changes in the global carbon cycle.  相似文献   

14.
Short rotation plantations are often considered as holding vast potentials for future global bioenergy supply. In contrast to raising biomass harvests in forests, purpose‐grown biomass does not interfere with forest carbon (C) stocks. Provided that agricultural land can be diverted from food and feed production without impairing food security, energy plantations on current agricultural land appear as a beneficial option in terms of renewable, climate‐friendly energy supply. However, instead of supporting energy plantations, land could also be devoted to natural succession. It then acts as a long‐term C sink which also results in C benefits. We here compare the sink strength of natural succession on arable land with the C saving effects of bioenergy from plantations. Using geographically explicit data on global cropland distribution among climate and ecological zones, regionally specific C accumulation rates are calculated with IPCC default methods and values. C savings from bioenergy are given for a range of displacement factors (DFs), acknowledging the varying efficiency of bioenergy routes and technologies in fossil fuel displacement. A uniform spatial pattern is assumed for succession and bioenergy plantations, and the considered timeframes range from 20 to 100 years. For many parameter settings—in particular, longer timeframes and high DFs—bioenergy yields higher cumulative C savings than natural succession. Still, if woody biomass displaces liquid transport fuels or natural gas‐based electricity generation, natural succession is competitive or even superior for timeframes of 20–50 years. This finding has strong implications with climate and environmental policies: Freeing land for natural succession is a worthwhile low‐cost natural climate solution that has many co‐benefits for biodiversity and other ecosystem services. A considerable risk, however, is C stock losses (i.e., emissions) due to disturbances or land conversion at a later time.  相似文献   

15.
张瀚曰  包维楷  胡斌  胡慧 《生态学报》2023,43(16):6878-6888
植被类型变化强烈影响着土壤碳循环。土壤微生物碳利用效率(CUE)是微生物将从环境中获取的碳分配给自身生长的比例,是土壤碳循环的综合指标。研究植被类型变化对CUE的影响有助于从微生物视角理解该过程中的土壤碳动态,可以为评估植被类型变化对土壤质量及生态系统碳循环的影响提供基础,具有重要的理论及实际价值。通过系统查阅相关文献,综述了植被类型变化导致的CUE变化情况,以及该过程中影响CUE的因子与机制。目前,相关研究主要涉及以林地、草地和农业用地为起点或终点的植被变化类型。天然林(原生林、次生林)变化为人工林、林地变化为草地后CUE普遍下降,随终点植被的发展CUE可能恢复至起点水平。植被成熟度越高,发生转变时CUE变化越剧烈。植被类型变化以农业用地为起点或终点时,CUE变化方向的不确定性及幅度的变异性均增加。植被类型变化导致的CUE变化主要受到植被、土壤、微生物因子及其交互作用的驱动,指示CUE的指标、采样季节和土层也会一定程度上影响CUE的变化。今后相关研究应采用直接的CUE测定方法,拓宽研究气候区及植被变化类型,关注植被变化过程中CUE变化的土层差异及动态监测,深入对植被类型变化导致的生态环境因子变化与CUE的关系及作用机制的研究。  相似文献   

16.
Continuous half‐hourly net CO2 exchange measurements were made using nine automatic chambers in a treed fen in northern Alberta, Canada from June–October in 2005 and from May–October in 2006. The 2006 growing season was warmer and drier than in 2005. The average chamber respiration rates normalized to 10 °C were much higher in 2006 than in 2005, while calculations of the temperature sensitivity (Q10) values were similar in the two years. Daytime average respiration values were lower than the corresponding, temperature‐corrected respiration rates calculated from night‐time chamber measurements. From June to September, the season‐integrated estimates of chamber photosynthesis and respiration were 384 and 590 g C m?2, respectively in 2006, an increase of 100 and 203 g C m?2 over the corresponding values in 2005. The season‐integrated photosynthesis and respiration rates obtained using the eddy covariance technique, which included trees and a tall shrub not present in the chambers, were 720 and 513 g C m?2, respectively, in 2006, an increase of 50 and 125 g C m?2 over the corresponding values in 2005. While both photosynthesis and respiration rates were higher in the warmer and drier conditions of 2006, the increase in respiration was more than twice the increase in photosynthesis.  相似文献   

17.
We forced a global terrestrial carbon cycle model by climate fields of 14 ocean and atmosphere general circulation models (OAGCMs) to simulate the response of terrestrial carbon pools and fluxes to climate change over the next century. These models participated in the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2), where a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO2 was prescribed. We obtain a reduction in net land uptake because of climate change ranging between 1.4 and 5.7 Gt C yr?1 at the time of atmospheric CO2 doubling. Such a reduction in terrestrial carbon sinks is largely dominated by the response of tropical ecosystems, where soil water stress occurs. The uncertainty in the simulated land carbon cycle response is the consequence of discrepancies in land temperature and precipitation changes simulated by the OAGCMs. We use a statistical approach to assess the coherence of the land carbon fluxes response to climate change. The biospheric carbon fluxes and pools changes have a coherent response in the tropics, in the Mediterranean region and in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is because of a good coherence of soil water content change in the first two regions and of temperature change in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Then we evaluate the carbon uptake uncertainties to the assumptions on plant productivity sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 and on decomposition rate sensitivity to temperature. We show that these uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude than the uncertainty because of climate change. Finally, we find that the OAGCMs having the largest climate sensitivities to CO2 are the ones with the largest soil drying in the tropics, and therefore with the largest reduction of carbon uptake.  相似文献   

18.
    
Carbon sequestration by sediments and vegetated marine systems contributes to atmospheric carbon drawdown, but little empirical evidence is available to help separate the effects of climate change and other anthropogenic activities on carbon burial over centennial timescales. We used marine sediment organic carbon to determine the role of historic climate variability and human habitation in carbon burial over the past 5,071 years. There was centennial‐scale sensitivity of carbon supply and burial to climatic variability, with Little Ice Age cooling causing an abrupt ecosystem shift and an increase in marine carbon contributions compared to terrestrial carbon. Although land use changes during the late 1800s did not cause marked alteration in average carbon burial, they did lead to marked increases in the spatial variability of carbon burial. Thus, while carbon burial by vegetated systems is expected to increase with projected climate warming over the coming century, ecosystem restructuring caused by abrupt climate change may produce unexpected change in carbon burial whose variability is also modulated by land use change.  相似文献   

19.
    
The climate has important influences on the distribution and structure of forest ecosystems, which may lead to vital feedback to climate change. However, much of the existing work focuses on the changes in carbon fluxes or water cycles due to climate change and/or atmospheric CO2, and few studies have considered how and to what extent climate change and CO2 influence the ecosystem structure (e.g., fractional coverage change) and the changes in the responses of ecosystems with different characteristics. In this work, two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs): IAP‐DGVM coupled with CLM3 and CLM4‐CNDV, were used to investigate the response of the forest ecosystem structure to changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) and CO2 concentration. In the temperature sensitivity tests, warming reduced the global area‐averaged ecosystem gross primary production in the two models, which decreased global forest area. Furthermore, the changes in tree fractional coverage (ΔFtree; %) from the two models were sensitive to the regional temperature and ecosystem structure, i.e., the mean annual temperature (MAT; °C) largely determined whether ΔFtree was positive or negative, while the tree fractional coverage (Ftree; %) played a decisive role in the amplitude of ΔFtree around the globe, and the dependence was more remarkable in IAP‐DGVM. In cases with precipitation change, Ftree had a uniformly positive relationship with precipitation, especially in the transition zones of forests (30% < Ftree < 60%) for IAP‐DGVM and in semiarid and arid regions for CLM4‐CNDV. Moreover, ΔFtree had a stronger dependence on Ftree than on the mean annual precipitation (MAP; mm/year). It was also demonstrated that both models captured the fertilization effects of the CO2 concentration.  相似文献   

20.
  总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 methodologies commonly underpin project‐scale carbon accounting for changes in land use and management and are used in frameworks for Life Cycle Assessment and carbon footprinting of food and energy crops. These methodologies were intended for use at large spatial scales. This can introduce error in predictions at finer spatial scales. There is an urgent need for development and implementation of higher tier methodologies that can be applied at fine spatial scales (e.g. farm/project/plantation) for food and bioenergy crop greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting to facilitate decision making in the land‐based sectors. Higher tier methods have been defined by IPCC and must be well evaluated and operate across a range of domains (e.g. climate region, soil type, crop type, topography), and must account for land use transitions and management changes being implemented. Furthermore, the data required to calibrate and drive the models used at higher tiers need to be available and applicable at fine spatial resolution, covering the meteorological, soil, cropping system and management domains, with quantified uncertainties. Testing the reliability of the models will require data either from sites with repeated measurements or from chronosequences. We review current global capability for estimating changes in soil carbon at fine spatial scales and present a vision for a framework capable of quantifying land use change and management impacts on soil carbon, which could be used for addressing issues such as bioenergy and biofuel sustainability, food security, forest protection, and direct/indirect impacts of land use change. The aim of this framework is to provide a globally accepted standard of carbon measurement and modelling appropriate for GHG accounting that could be applied at project to national scales (allowing outputs to be scaled up to a country level), to address the impacts of land use and land management change on soil carbon.  相似文献   

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