Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high‐intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully ‘tracking’ climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm‐ and cold‐associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold‐associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm‐associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting ‘adaptive’ community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high‐intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold‐adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm‐associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation.     

Land use for animal production in global change studies: Defining and characterizing a framework

Land use for animal production influences the earth system in a variety of ways, including local‐scale modification to biodiversity, soils, and nutrient cycling; regional changes in albedo and hydrology; and global‐scale changes in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations. Pasture is furthermore the single most extensive form of land cover, currently comprising about 22–26% of the earth's ice‐free land surface. Despite the importance and variable expressions of animal production, distinctions among different systems are effectively absent from studies of land use and land cover change. This deficiency is improving; however, livestock production system classifications are rarely applied in this context, and the most popular global land cover inventories still present only a single, usually poorly defined category of “pasture” or “rangeland” with no characterization of land use. There is a marked lack of bottom‐up, evidence‐based methodology, creating a pressing need to incorporate cross‐disciplinary evidence of past and present animal production systems into global change studies. Here, we present a framework, modified from existing livestock production systems, that is rooted in sociocultural, socioeconomic, and ecological contexts. The framework defines and characterizes the range of land usage pertaining to animal production, and is suitable for application in land use inventories and scenarios, land cover modeling, and studies on sustainable land use in the past, present, and future.     

Modeling the ecological niche of long-term land use changes: The role of biophysical factors

Land use/land cover changes (LULCCs) represent the result of the complex interaction between biophysical factors and human activity, acting over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. The aim of this work is to quantify the role of biophysical factors in constraining the trajectories of land abandonment and urbanization in the last 50 years. A habitat suitability model borrowed from animal ecology was used to analyze the ecological niche of the following LULCC trajectories occurred in Emilia-Romagna (northern Italy) during 1954–2008: (i) land abandonment (LA) and (ii) urbanization (URB), both from agricultural areas (URB_agr) and from semi-natural areas (URB_for). Results showed that the different LULCC trajectories were driven by different combinations of biophysical factors, such as climate, topography and soil quality. In particular, slope and elevation resulted as the main driving factors for rural processes, while slope and temperatures resulted as the main constraints underlying urban processes. This approach may represent a conceptual and technical step toward the systematic assessment of LULCC processes, thus providing an effective support tool to inform decision makers about land use transformations, their underlying causes, as well as their possible implications.     

Nutrient loading associated with agriculture land use dampens the importance of consumer‐mediated niche construction

The linkages between biological communities and ecosystem function remain poorly understood along gradients of human‐induced stressors. We examined how resource provisioning (nutrient recycling), mediated by native freshwater mussels, influences the structure and function of benthic communities by combining observational data and a field experiment. We compared the following: (1) elemental and community composition (algal pigments and macroinvertebates) on live mussel shells and on nearby rocks across a gradient of catchment agriculture and (2) experimental colonisation of benthic communities on live vs. sham shells controlling for initial community composition and colonisation duration. We show that in near pristine systems, nutrient heterogeneity mediated by mussels relates to greater biodiversity of communities, which supports the notion that resource heterogeneity can foster biological diversity. However, with increased nutrients from the catchment, the relevance of mussel‐provisioned nutrients was nearly eliminated. While species can persist in disturbed systems, their functional relevance may be diminished or lost.     

Holocene carbon dynamics at the forest–steppe ecotone of southern Siberia

The forest–steppe ecotone in southern Siberia is highly sensitive to climate change; global warming is expected to push the ecotone northwards, at the same time resulting in degradation of the underlying permafrost. To gain a deeper understanding of long‐term forest–steppe carbon dynamics, we use a highly resolved, multiproxy, palaeolimnological approach, based on sediment records from Lake Baikal. We reconstruct proxies that are relevant to understanding carbon dynamics including carbon mass accumulation rates (CMAR; g C m^?2 yr^?1) and isotope composition of organic matter (δ¹³C_TOC). Forest–steppe dynamics were reconstructed using pollen, and diatom records provided measures of primary production from near‐ and off‐shore communities. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to identify significant change points in temporal series, and by applying generalized linear least‐squares regression modelling to components of the multiproxy data, we address (1) What factors influence carbon dynamics during early Holocene warming and late Holocene cooling? (2) How did carbon dynamics respond to abrupt sub‐Milankovitch scale events? and (3) What is the Holocene carbon storage budget for Lake Baikal. CMAR values range between 2.8 and 12.5 g C m^?2 yr^?1. Peak burial rates (and greatest variability) occurred during the early Holocene, associated with melting permafrost and retreating glaciers, while lowest burial rates occurred during the neoglacial. Significant shifts in carbon dynamics at 10.3, 4.1 and 2.8 kyr bp provide compelling evidence for the sensitivity of the region to sub‐Milankovitch drivers of climate change. We estimate that 1.03 Pg C was buried in Lake Baikal sediments during the Holocene, almost one‐quarter of which was buried during the early Holocene alone. Combined, our results highlight the importance of understanding the close linkages between carbon cycling and hydrological processes, not just temperatures, in southern Siberian environments.     

The effects of land use and climate change on the carbon cycle of Europe over the past 500 years

The long residence time of carbon in forests and soils means that both the current state and future behavior of the terrestrial biosphere are influenced by past variability in climate and anthropogenic land use. Over the last half‐millennium, European terrestrial ecosystems were affected by the cool temperatures of the Little Ice Age, rising CO₂ concentrations, and human induced deforestation and land abandonment. To quantify the importance of these processes, we performed a series of simulations with the LPJ dynamic vegetation model driven by reconstructed climate, land use, and CO₂ concentrations. Although land use change was the major control on the carbon inventory of Europe over the last 500 years, the current state of the terrestrial biosphere is largely controlled by land use change during the past century. Between 1500 and 2000, climate variability led to temporary sequestration events of up to 3 Pg, whereas increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations during the 20th century led to an increase in carbon storage of up to 15 Pg. Anthropogenic land use caused between 25 Pg of carbon emissions and 5 Pg of uptake over the same time period, depending on the historical and spatial pattern of past land use and the timing of the reversal from deforestation to afforestation during the last two centuries. None of the currently existing anthropogenic land use change datasets adequately capture the timing of the forest transition in most European countries as recorded in historical observations. Despite considerable uncertainty, our scenarios indicate that with limited management, extant European forests have the potential to absorb between 5 and 12 Pg of carbon at the present day.     

The climate,the fuel and the land use: Long‐term regional variability of biomass burning in boreal forests

The influence of different drivers on changes in North American and European boreal forests biomass burning (BB) during the Holocene was investigated based on the following hypotheses: land use was important only in the southernmost regions, while elsewhere climate was the main driver modulated by changes in fuel type. BB was reconstructed by means of 88 sedimentary charcoal records divided into six different site clusters. A statistical approach was used to explore the relative contribution of (a) pollen‐based mean July/summer temperature and mean annual precipitation reconstructions, (b) an independent model‐based scenario of past land use (LU), and (c) pollen‐based reconstructions of plant functional types (PFTs) on BB. Our hypotheses were tested with: (a) a west‐east northern boreal sector with changing climatic conditions and a homogeneous vegetation, and (b) a north‐south European boreal sector characterized by gradual variation in both climate and vegetation composition. The processes driving BB in boreal forests varied from one region to another during the Holocene. However, general trends in boreal biomass burning were primarily controlled by changes in climate (mean annual precipitation in Alaska, northern Quebec, and northern Fennoscandia, and mean July/summer temperature in central Canada and central Fennoscandia) and, secondarily, by fuel composition (BB positively correlated with the presence of boreal needleleaf evergreen trees in Alaska and in central and southern Fennoscandia). Land use played only a marginal role. A modification towards less flammable tree species (by promoting deciduous stands over fire‐prone conifers) could contribute to reduce circumboreal wildfire risk in future warmer periods.     

Winners and losers of land use change: A systematic review of interactions between the world’s crane species (Gruidae) and the agricultural sector

While agricultural intensification and expansion are major factors driving loss and degradation of natural habitat and species decline, some wildlife species also benefit from agriculturally managed habitats. This may lead to high population densities with impacts on both human livelihoods and wildlife conservation. Cranes are a group of 15 species worldwide, affected both negatively and positively by agricultural practices. While eleven species face critical population declines, numbers of common cranes (Grus grus) and sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) have increased drastically in the last 40 years. Their increase is associated with higher incidences of crane foraging on agricultural crops, causing financial losses to farmers. Our aim was to synthesize scientific knowledge on the bilateral effects of land use change and crane populations. We conducted a systematic literature review of peer‐reviewed publications on agriculture‐crane interactions (n = 135) and on the importance of agricultural crops in the diet of cranes (n = 81). Agricultural crops constitute a considerable part of the diet of all crane species (average of 37%, most frequently maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)). Crop damage was identified in only 10% of all agriculture‐crane interactions, although one‐third of interactions included cranes foraging on cropland. Using a conceptual framework analysis, we identified two major pathways in agriculture‐crane interactions: (1) habitat loss with negative effects on crane species dependent on specific habitats, and (2) expanding agricultural habitats with superabundant food availability beneficial for opportunistic crane species. The degree to which crane species can adapt to agricultural land use changes may be an important factor explaining their population response. We conclude that multi‐objective management needs to combine land sparing and land sharing strategies at landscape scale. To support viable crane populations while guaranteeing sustainable agricultural production, it is necessary to include the perspectives of diverse stakeholders and streamline conservation initiatives and agricultural policy accordingly.     

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species’ suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr^?1, about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr^?1). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species’ distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.     

Human land use is comparable to climate as a driver of global plant occurrence and abundance across life forms

Aim

Historically, climate has been a dominant driver of global vegetation patterns. Recently, ecological understanding has been updated to acknowledge the influence of human land use (the dominant driver of biodiversity change) in shaping global vegetation patterns. We test whether Raunkiær's life form, a plant classification system designed to reflect climatic drivers, affects how plants respond to both land use and climate.

Location

Forty-one countries across six continents.

Time period

1990 to 2013.

Major taxa studied

Terrestrial plants.

Methods

Combining data from the biodiversity and land use database PREDICTS, and plant trait databases TRY and BIEN, we use generalized linear mixed models with weighted effects coding to test whether Raunkiær's life form affects plant response to land use and climate in over 4800 species at over 300 sites globally.

Results

We provide evidence that human land use is comparable to climate in influencing life form occurrence and that land use produces divergent outcomes across life forms.

Main conclusions

Combined with climatic suitability, land use acts as a filter contracting the realized niche of trees and expanding the realized niche of disturbance-tolerant species. Our results highlight the fundamental role of human activity in shaping species' distribution.     

Anthropogenic disturbance and rainfall variation threaten the stability of plant–ant interactions in the Brazilian Caatinga

Climate change is projected to exacerbate the effects of anthropogenic disturbance, with negative impacts on ecosystem stability and functioning. We evaluate the additive and combined effects of chronic anthropogenic disturbance (CAD) and rainfall variation on the temporal stability of mutualistic EFN‐bearing plant–ant networks in a Caatinga dry forest. We evaluated whether changes in the stability of these interactions are driven by changes in the stability of the communities of partners involved and/or in ant behavior. We sampled EFN‐bearing plant–ant networks in sixteen 20 × 20 m plots distributed across CAD and rainfall gradients. The stability of EFN‐bearing plant and attendant–ant communities were measured as the inverse of temporal differences in their community structure and composition. We also computed the stability of EFN‐bearing plant–ant networks by measuring the inverse of temporal differences in network specialization metrics. We found that, in general, the structure and composition of plant and ant interacting communities were similarly stable along both environmental gradients. Only CAD and its interaction with rainfall affected the temporal stability of EFN‐bearing plant diversity, which declined as CAD increased, with a more pronounced relationship in wetter areas. However, variation in levels of CAD and, to a lesser extent, rainfall greatly modulated the stability of EFN‐bearing plant–ant network specialization. CAD reduced the stability of network generality (specialization at the ant level), an effect that was much stronger in wetter areas. Meanwhile, the stability in network vulnerability (specialization at the plant level) decreased with the increase of CAD and the decrease of rainfall levels. Finally, there was a trend of decreasing stability in specialization of the overall network with increasing CAD. Our results suggest that changes in the structure of interaction networks are mainly driven by a switch in ant behavior rather than by changes in the structure and composition of plant and ant communities between years.     

Effect of historical land‐use and climate change on tree‐climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree‐climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree‐climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land‐use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land‐use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land‐use interactions are compounding, in which historical land‐use reinforces shifts in species‐climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land‐use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary‐based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.     

A socio‐ecological model for predicting impacts of land‐use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps

Climate and land‐use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent‐based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine‐grained land‐use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land‐use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio‐economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the realized niches of 832 plant species and climatic gradients or land‐use types, respectively, and, second, to project consequent changes in potential regional ranges of these species as triggered by changes in both the altered land‐use patterns and the changing climate. We find that both drivers determine the realized niches of the studied plants, with land use having a stronger effect than any single climatic variable in the model. Nevertheless, the plants' future distributions appear much more responsive to climate than to land‐use changes because alternative future socio‐economic backgrounds have only modest impact on land‐use decisions in the model region. However, relative effects of climate and land‐use changes on biodiversity may differ drastically in other regions, especially where landscapes are still dominated by natural or semi‐natural habitat. We conclude that agent‐based modelling of land use is able to provide scenarios at scales relevant to individual species distribution and suggest that coupling ABMs with models of species' range change should be intensified to provide more realistic biodiversity forecasts.     

Reconstructing range dynamics and range fragmentation of European bison for the last 8000 years

Aim Understanding what constituted species’ ranges prior to large‐scale human influence, and how past climate and land use change have affected range dynamics, provides conservation planners with important insights into how species may respond to future environmental change. Our aim here was to reconstruct the Holocene range of European bison (Bison bonasus) by combining a time‐calibrated species distribution models (SDM) with a dynamic vegetation model. Location Europe. Method We used European bison occurrences from the Holocene in a maximum entropy model to assess bison range dynamics during the last 8000 years. As predictors, we used bioclimatic variables and vegetation reconstructions from the generalized dynamic vegetation model LPJ‐GUESS. We compared our range maps with maps of farmland and human population expansion to identify the main species range constraints. Results The Holocene distribution of European bison was mainly determined by vegetation patterns, with bison thriving in both broadleaved and coniferous forests, as well as by mean winter temperature. The heartland of European bison was in Central and Eastern Europe, whereas suitable habitat in Western Europe was scarce. While environmentally suitable regions were overall stable, the expansion of settlements and farming severely diminished available habitat. Main conclusions European bison habitat preferences may be wider than previously assumed, and our results suggest that the species had a more eastern and northern distribution than previously reported. Vegetation and climate transformation during the Holocene did not affect the bison’s range substantially. Conversely, human population growth and the spread of farming resulted in drastic bison habitat loss and fragmentation, likely reaching a tipping point during the last 1000 years. Combining SDM and dynamic vegetation models can improve range reconstructions and projections, and thus help to identify resilient conservation strategies for endangered species.     

Vegetation state changes in the course of shrub encroachment in an African savanna since about 1850 CE and their potential drivers

1. Shrub encroachment has far‐reaching ecological and economic consequences in many ecosystems worldwide. Yet, compositional changes associated with shrub encroachment are often overlooked despite having important effects on ecosystem functioning.
2. We document the compositional change and potential drivers for a northern Namibian Combretum woodland transitioning into a Terminalia shrubland. We use a multiproxy record (pollen, sedimentary ancient DNA, biomarkers, compound‐specific carbon (δ¹³C) and deuterium (δD) isotopes, bulk carbon isotopes (δ¹³Corg), grain size, geochemical properties) from Lake Otjikoto at high taxonomical and temporal resolution.
3. We provide evidence that state changes in semiarid environments may occur on a scale of one century and that transitions between stable states can span around 80 years and are characterized by a unique vegetation composition. We demonstrate that the current grass/woody ratio is exceptional for the last 170 years, as supported by n‐alkane distributions and the δ¹³C and δ¹³Corg records. Comparing vegetation records to environmental proxy data and census data, we infer a complex network of global and local drivers of vegetation change. While our δD record suggests physiological adaptations of woody species to higher atmospheric pCO₂ concentration and drought, our vegetation records reflect the impact of broad‐scale logging for the mining industry, and the macrocharcoal record suggests a decrease in fire activity associated with the intensification of farming. Impact of selective grazing is reflected by changes in abundance and taxonomical composition of grasses and by an increase of nonpalatable and trampling‐resistant taxa. In addition, grain‐size and spore records suggest changes in the erodibility of soils because of reduced grass cover.
4. Synthesis. We conclude that transitions to an encroached savanna state are supported by gradual environmental changes induced by management strategies, which affected the resilience of savanna ecosystems. In addition, feedback mechanisms that reflect the interplay between management legacies and climate change maintain the encroached state.

     

A conceptual framework for studying the strength of plant–animal mutualistic interactions

The strength of species interactions influences strongly the structure and dynamics of ecological systems. Thus, quantifying such strength is crucial to understand how species interactions shape communities and ecosystems. Although the concepts and measurement of interaction strength in food webs have received much attention, there has been comparatively little progress in the context of mutualism. We propose a conceptual scheme for studying the strength of plant–animal mutualistic interactions. We first review the interaction strength concepts developed for food webs, and explore how these concepts have been applied to mutualistic interactions. We then outline and explain a conceptual framework for defining ecological effects in plant–animal mutualisms. We give recommendations for measuring interaction strength from data collected in field studies based on a proposed approach for the assessment of interaction strength in plant–animal mutualisms. This approach is conceptually integrative and methodologically feasible, as it focuses on two key variables usually measured in field studies: the frequency of interactions and the fitness components influenced by the interactions.