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1.
The heritability of life‐history traits is of particular importance for insects that are very dependent on host conditions. Severe defoliation caused by the spruce budworm negatively impacts its food source, which in turn imposes environmental constraints on the insect. The heritability of those traits can help elucidate this species' evolutionary process. Heritability also helps identify which traits exhibit significant additive variance and can be key to understanding natural selection effects. Individuals were reared under laboratory conditions over three generations on an artificial diet. Heritability was estimated by parent–offspring regression. Fertility and fecundity demonstrated significant heritability followed by larval development, while pupal mass showed minimal heritable variation. These results suggest an important percent of additive variance in life‐history traits. This study contributes to our understanding of the relationship of this forest pest to its environmental conditions. This study also reveals an important genetic architectural structure of life‐history traits in the spruce budworm. 相似文献
2.
In cold climates, the expected global warming will lead to earlier cambial resumptions in spring, with a resultant lengthening of the growing season but unknown consequences on forest productivity. The phenological traits of cambium activity and xylem formation were analyzed at a short time scale along a thermal gradient represented by an alti‐latitudinal range from the 48th to 53rd parallels and covering the whole closed black‐spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] forest in Quebec, Canada. A hypothesis was tested that warmer temperatures influence cambium phenology, allowing longer duration and higher intensity of growth, and resulting in proportionally increased xylem production. From April to October 2012, cell division in cambium and post‐cambial differentiation of xylem were observed on anatomical sections obtained from microcores collected weekly from the stem of fifty trees. The southern and warmer site was characterized by the highest radial growth, which corresponded to both the highest rates and longest durations of cell production. The differences in terms of xylem phenology and growth were marginal between the other sites. Xylem growth was positively correlated with rate and duration of cell production, with the latter explaining most variability in growth. Within the range analyzed, the relationship between temperature and most phenological phases of xylogenesis was linear. On the contrary, temperature was related with cell production according to an exponential pattern. Periods of xylogenesis of 14 days longer (+13.1%) corresponded to a massive increase in cell production (33 cells, +109%). This disproportionate change occurred at a May–September average temperature of ca. 14 °C and a snow‐free period of 210–235 days. At the lower boundary of the distribution of black spruce, small environmental changes allowing marginal lengthening of the period of cell division could potentially lead to disproportionate increases in xylem cell production, with substantial consequences for the productivity of this boreal species. 相似文献
3.
Ryan M. Bright Clara Antón‐Fernández Rasmus Astrup Francesco Cherubini Maria Kvalevåg Anders H. Strømman 《Global Change Biology》2014,20(2):607-621
Empirical models alongside remotely sensed and station measured meteorological observations are employed to investigate both the local and global direct climate change impacts of alternative forest management strategies within a boreal ecosystem of eastern Norway. Stand‐level analysis is firstly executed to attribute differences in daily, seasonal, and annual mean surface temperatures to differences in surface intrinsic biophysical properties across conifer, deciduous, and clear‐cut sites. Relative to a conifer site, a slight local cooling of ?0.13 °C at a deciduous site and ?0.25 °C at a clear‐cut site were observed over a 6‐year period, which were mostly attributed to a higher albedo throughout the year. When monthly mean albedo trajectories over the entire managed forest landscape were taken into consideration, we found that strategies promoting natural regeneration of coniferous sites with native deciduous species led to substantial global direct climate cooling benefits relative to those maintaining current silviculture regimes – despite predicted long‐term regional warming feedbacks and a reduced albedo in spring and autumn months. The magnitude and duration of the cooling benefit depended largely on whether management strategies jointly promoted an enhanced material supply over business‐as‐usual levels. Expressed in terms of an equivalent CO2 emission pulse at the start of the simulation, the net climate response at the end of the 21st century spanned ?8 to ?159 Tg‐CO2‐eq., depending on whether near‐term harvest levels increased or followed current trends, respectively. This magnitude equates to approximately ?20 to ?300% of Norway's annual domestic (production) emission impact. Our analysis supports the assertion that a carbon‐only focus in the design and implementation of forest management policy in boreal and other climatically similar regions can be counterproductive – and at best – suboptimal if boreal forests are to be used as a tool to mitigate global warming. 相似文献
4.
Euler Melo Nogueira Aurora M Yanai Frederico O R Fonseca Philip Martin Fearnside 《Global Change Biology》2015,21(3):1271-1292
The largest carbon stock in tropical vegetation is in Brazilian Amazonia. In this ~5 million km2 area, over 750 000 km2 of forest and ~240 000 km2 of nonforest vegetation types had been cleared through 2013. We estimate current carbon stocks and cumulative gross carbon loss from clearing of premodern vegetation in Brazil's ‘Legal Amazonia’ and ‘Amazonia biome’ regions. Biomass of ‘premodern’ vegetation (prior to major increases in disturbance beginning in the 1970s) was estimated by matching vegetation classes mapped at a scale of 1 : 250 000 and 29 biomass means from 41 published studies for vegetation types classified as forest (2317 1‐ha plots) and as either nonforest or contact zones (1830 plots and subplots of varied size). Total biomass (above and below‐ground, dry weight) underwent a gross reduction of 18.3% in Legal Amazonia (13.1 Pg C) and 16.7% in the Amazonia biome (11.2 Pg C) through 2013, excluding carbon loss from the effects of fragmentation, selective logging, fires, mortality induced by recent droughts and clearing of forest regrowth. In spite of the loss of carbon from clearing, large amounts of carbon were stored in stands of remaining vegetation in 2013, equivalent to 149 Mg C ha?1 when weighted by the total area covered by each vegetation type in Legal Amazonia. Native vegetation in Legal Amazonia in 2013 originally contained 58.6 Pg C, while that in the Amazonia biome contained 56 Pg C. Emissions per unit area from clearing could potentially be larger in the future because previously cleared areas were mainly covered by vegetation with lower mean biomass than the remaining vegetation. Estimates of original biomass are essential for estimating losses to forest degradation. This study offers estimates of cumulative biomass loss, as well as estimates of premodern carbon stocks that have not been represented in recent estimates of deforestation impacts. 相似文献
5.
Marc Rhainds Dan Lavigne Troy Rideout Jean‐Noël Candau 《Entomologia Experimentalis et Applicata》2019,167(6):526-533
A 3‐year study (2014–2016) was conducted at Rocky Harbour near the west coast of Newfoundland, Canada, to record the abundance and phenology of adult spruce budworms captured at traps, using a factorial design (light traps and pheromone traps deployed contiguously or segregated spatially). Budworms were most abundant and occurred seasonally earlier in 2014 than in 2015 and 2016; these findings held generally true for males and females. The geographic setting of Newfoundland (large island isolated from the mainland by an oceanic barrier of >100 km across) provides an ideal location to discriminate local flight from long‐range immigrations; in our study, however, immigrations cannot be ruled out for any single day of trapping due to broad overlap in emergence patterns at Rocky Harbour relative to forest stands with known populations of budworms on the mainland. Based on moderate daily variation in adult abundance, however, major immigration events (defined as external deposition of budworms with large numerical amplitude) likely did not take place at Rocky Harbor between 2014 and 2016. Males were more abundant at light traps coupled with pheromone traps, whereas abundance of males at pheromone traps was similar with or without contiguous light traps. This outcome may be mediated by lower range of attraction for light traps (usually <100 m) and (generally assumed to be several hundreds of meters). Females were equally abundant at light traps with or without pheromone traps. As expected, males were captured earlier in the season at pheromone traps than at light traps, and females occurred later in the season due to protandry. The onset of flight observed at light traps or pheromone traps in 2015 and 2016 occurred 10–15 days later than simulated predictions; caution is thus warranted as to conclusions derived on computer modeling of adult emergence. 相似文献
6.
DUSTIN R. BRONSON STITH T. GOWER† MYRON TANNER‡ INGRID VAN HERK† 《Global Change Biology》2009,15(6):1534-1543
The boreal forest is predicted to experience the greatest warming of any forest biome during the next 50–100 years, but the effects of warming on vegetation phenology are not well known. The objectives of this study were to (1) examine the effects of whole ecosystem warming on bud burst and annual shoot growth of black spruce trees in northern Manitoba, Canada and (2) correlate bud burst to cumulative degree-days (CDD). The experimental design was a complete randomized block design that consisted of four replicated blocks. Each replicate block contained four treatments: soil warming only (heated outside, HO), soil and air warming (heated inside, HI), control outside (no chamber, no heating, CO), and inside a chamber maintained at ambient conditions (no soil or air warming, control inside, CI). Bud burst was measured during the first and second years of the experiment, starting in 2004, and annual shoot growth was measured for the first 3 years (2004–2006) of the study. On average, shoot bud burst occurred 11 and 9 days earlier in 2004 and 2005, respectively, for HI than for other treatments. However, mean CDD required for bud burst for HI was within the standard deviation of CO for both years. In year 1 of the treatments, shoot bud burst occurred earlier for HI than other treatments (CI, CO, HO), but final shoot length of HI trees was less than in CO trees. In the second year of warming, final shoot length was not different for HI than CO. By the third year of warming final shoot length was significantly greater for HI than all other treatments. Empirical results from this study suggest that soil and air warming causes an earlier bud burst for all years of observation and greater shoot lengths by the third season of warming. A longer growing season and greater annual shoot growth should increase carbon uptake by boreal black spruce trees in a warmer climate. 相似文献
7.
Jennifer L. Baltzer Tyler Veness Laura E. Chasmer Anastasia E. Sniderhan William L. Quinton 《Global Change Biology》2014,20(3):824-834
Much of the world's boreal forest occurs on permafrost (perennially cryotic ground). As such, changes in permafrost conditions have implications for forest function and, within the zone of discontinuous permafrost (30–80% permafrost in areal extent), distribution. Here, forested peat plateaus underlain by permafrost are elevated above the surrounding permafrost‐free wetlands; as permafrost thaws, ground surface subsidence leads to waterlogging at forest margins. Within the North American subarctic, recent warming has produced rapid, widespread permafrost thaw and corresponding forest loss. Although permafrost thaw‐induced forest loss provides a natural analogue to deforestation occurring in more southerly locations, we know little about how fragmentation relates to subsequent permafrost thaw and forest loss or the role of changing conditions at the edges of forested plateaus. We address these knowledge gaps by (i) examining the relationship of forest loss to the degree of fragmentation in a boreal peatland in the Northwest Territories, Canada; and (ii) quantifying associated biotic and abiotic changes occurring across forest‐wetland transitions and extending into the forested plateaus (i.e., edge effects). We demonstrate that the rate of forest loss correlates positively with the degree of fragmentation as quantified by perimeter to area ratio of peat plateaus (edge : area). Changes in depth of seasonal thaw, soil moisture, and effective leaf area index (LAIe) penetrated the plateau forests by 3–15 m. Water uptake by trees was sevenfold greater in the plateau interior than at the edges with direct implications for tree radial growth. A negative relationship existed between LAIe and soil moisture, suggesting that changes in vegetation physiological function may contribute to changing edge conditions while simultaneously being affected by these changes. Enhancing our understanding of mechanisms contributing to differential rates of permafrost thaw and associated forest loss is critical for predicting future interactions between the land surface processes and the climate system in high‐latitude regions. 相似文献
8.
Effects of climate warming and prolonged snow cover on phenology of the early life history stages of four alpine herbs on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau 
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下载免费PDF全文 Guoyan Wang Carol C. Baskin Jerry M. Baskin Xuejun Yang Guofang Liu Xuehua Ye Xinshi Zhang Zhenying Huang 《American journal of botany》2018,105(6):967-976
9.
Phenological events, such as bud burst, are strongly linked to ecosystem processes in temperate deciduous forests. However, the exact nature and magnitude of how seasonal and interannual variation in air temperatures influence phenology is poorly understood, and model‐based phenology representations fail to capture local‐ to regional‐scale variability arising from differences in species composition. In this paper, we use a combination of surface meteorological data, species composition maps, remote sensing, and ground‐based observations to estimate models that better represent how community‐level species composition affects the phenological response of deciduous broadleaf forests to climate forcing at spatial scales that are typically used in ecosystem models. Using time series of canopy greenness from repeat digital photography, citizen science data from the USA National Phenology Network, and satellite remote sensing‐based observations of phenology, we estimated and tested models that predict the timing of spring leaf emergence across five different deciduous broadleaf forest types in the eastern United States. Specifically, we evaluated two different approaches: (i) using species‐specific models in combination with species composition information to ‘upscale’ model predictions and (ii) using repeat digital photography of forest canopies that observe and integrate the phenological behavior of multiple representative species at each camera site to calibrate a single model for all deciduous broadleaf forests. Our results demonstrate variability in cumulative forcing requirements and photoperiod cues across species and forest types, and show how community composition influences phenological dynamics over large areas. At the same time, the response of different species to spatial and interannual variation in weather is, under the current climate regime, sufficiently similar that the generic deciduous forest model based on repeat digital photography performed comparably to the upscaled species‐specific models. More generally, results from this analysis demonstrate how in situ observation networks and remote sensing data can be used to synergistically calibrate and assess regional parameterizations of phenology in models. 相似文献
10.
Tree and forest functioning in response to global warming 总被引：24，自引：6，他引：24
Henrik Saxe Melvin G. R. Cannell Øystein Johnsen Michael G. Ryan George Vourlitis 《The New phytologist》2001,149(3):369-399
11.
Palm oil is used in various valued commodities and is a large global industry worth over US$ 50 billion annually. Oil palms (OP) are grown commercially in Indonesia and Malaysia and other countries within Latin America and Africa. The large‐scale land‐use change has high ecological, economic, and social impacts. Tropical countries in particular are affected negatively by climate change (CC) which also has a detrimental impact on OP agronomy, whereas the cultivation of OP increases CC. Amelioration of both is required. The reduced ability to grow OP will reduce CC, which may allow more cultivation tending to increase CC, in a decreasing cycle. OP could be increasingly grown in more suitable regions occurring under CC. Enhancing the soil fauna may compensate for the effect of CC on OP agriculture to some extent. The effect of OP cultivation on CC may be reduced by employing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation plans, for example, by avoiding illegal fire land clearing. Other ameliorating methods are reported herein. More research is required involving good management practices that can offset the increases in CC by OP plantations. Overall, OP‐growing countries should support the Paris convention on reducing CC as the most feasible scheme for reducing CC. 相似文献
12.
Mayumi Hadano Kenlo Nishida Nasahara Takeshi Motohka Hibiki Muraoka Noda Kazutaka Murakami Masahiro Hosaka 《Ecology and evolution》2013,3(6):1798-1807
Reports indicate that leaf onset (leaf flush) of deciduous trees in cool‐temperate ecosystems is occurring earlier in the spring in response to global warming. In this study, we created two types of phenology models, one driven only by warmth (spring warming [SW] model) and another driven by both warmth and winter chilling (parallel chill [PC] model), to predict such phenomena in the Japanese Islands at high spatial resolution (500 m). We calibrated these models using leaf onset dates derived from satellite data (Terra/MODIS) and in situ temperature data derived from a dense network of ground stations Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System. We ran the model using future climate predictions created by the Japanese Meteorological Agency's MRI‐AGCM3.1S model. In comparison to the first decade of the 2000s, our results predict that the date of leaf onset in the 2030s will advance by an average of 12 days under the SW model and 7 days under the PC model throughout the study area. The date of onset in the 2090s will advance by 26 days under the SW model and by 15 days under the PC model. The greatest impact will occur on Hokkaido (the northernmost island) and in the central mountains. 相似文献
13.
Artur Stefanski Raimundo Bermudez Kerrie M. Sendall Rebecca A. Montgomery Peter B. Reich 《Global Change Biology》2020,26(2):746-759
Photosynthetic biochemical limitation parameters (i.e., Vcmax, Jmax and Jmax:Vcmax ratio) are sensitive to temperature and water availability, but whether these parameters in cold climate species at biome ecotones are positively or negatively influenced by projected changes in global temperature and water availability remains uncertain. Prior exploration of this question has largely involved greenhouse based short‐term manipulative studies with mixed results in terms of direction and magnitude of responses. To address this question in a more realistic context, we examined the effects of increased temperature and rainfall reduction on the biochemical limitations of photosynthesis using a long‐term chamber‐less manipulative experiment located in northern Minnesota, USA. Nine tree species from the boreal‐temperate ecotone were grown in natural neighborhoods under ambient and elevated (+3.4°C) growing season temperatures and ambient or reduced (≈40% of rainfall removed) summer rainfall. Apparent rubisco carboxylation and RuBP regeneration standardized to 25°C (Vcmax25°C and Jmax25°C, respectively) were estimated based on ACi curves measured in situ over three growing seasons. Our primary objective was to test whether species would downregulate Vcmax25°C and Jmax25°C in response to warming and reduced rainfall, with such responses expected to be greatest in species with the coldest and most humid native ranges, respectively. These hypotheses were not supported, as there were no overall main treatment effects on Vcmax25°C or Jmax25°C (p > .14). However, Jmax:Vcmax ratio decreased significantly with warming (p = .0178), whereas interactions between warming and rainfall reduction on the Jmax25°C to Vcmax25°C ratio were not significant. The insensitivity of photosynthetic parameters to warming contrasts with many prior studies done under larger temperature differentials and often fixed daytime temperatures. In sum, plants growing in relatively realistic conditions under naturally varying temperatures and soil moisture levels were remarkably insensitive in terms of their Jmax25°C and Vcmax25°C when grown at elevated temperatures, reduced rainfall, or both combined. 相似文献
14.
Knowing how climate change affects the population dynamics of insect pests is critical for the future of integrated pest management. Rising winter temperatures from global warming can drive increases in outbreaks of some agricultural pests. In contrast, here we propose an alternative hypothesis that both extremely cold and warm winters can mismatch the timing between the eclosion of overwintering pests and the flowering of key host plants. As host plants normally need higher effective cumulative temperatures for flowering than insects need for eclosion, changes in flowering time will be less dramatic than changes in eclosion time, leading to a mismatch of phenology on either side of the optimal winter temperature. We term this the “seesaw effect.” Using a long‐term dataset of the Old World cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in northern China, we tested this seesaw hypothesis by running a generalized additive model for the effects of the third generation moth in the preceding year, the winter air temperature, the number of winter days below a critical temperature and cumulative precipitation during winter on the demography of the overwintering moth. Results confirmed the existence of the seesaw effect of winter temperature change on overwintering populations. Pest management should therefore consider the indirect effect of changing crop phenology (whether due to greenhouse cultivation or to climate change) on pest outbreaks. As arthropods from mid‐ and high latitudes are actually living in a cooler thermal environment than their physiological optimum in contrast to species from lower latitudes, the effects of rising winter temperatures on the population dynamics of arthropods in the different latitudinal zones should be considered separately. The seesaw effect makes it more difficult to predict the average long‐term population dynamics of insect pests at high latitudes due to the potential sharp changes in annual growth rates from fluctuating minimum winter temperatures. 相似文献
15.
One challenge of evolutionary ecology is to predict the rate and mechanisms of population adaptation to environmental variations. The variations in most life history traits are shaped both by individual genotypic and by environmental variation. Forest trees exhibit high levels of genetic diversity, large population sizes, and gene flow, and they also show a high level of plasticity for life history traits. We developed a new Physio‐Demo‐Genetics model (denoted PDG) coupling (i) a physiological module simulating individual tree responses to the environment; (ii) a demographic module simulating tree survival, reproduction, and pollen and seed dispersal; and (iii) a quantitative genetics module controlling the heritability of key life history traits. We used this model to investigate the plastic and genetic components of the variations in the timing of budburst (TBB) along an elevational gradient of Fagus sylvatica (the European beech). We used a repeated 5 years climatic sequence to show that five generations of natural selection were sufficient to develop nonmonotonic genetic differentiation in the TBB along the local climatic gradient but also that plastic variation among different elevations and years was higher than genetic variation. PDG complements theoretical models and provides testable predictions to understand the adaptive potential of tree populations. 相似文献
16.
The impact of global warming on phenology has been widely studied, and almost consistently advancing spring events have been reported. Especially in alpine regions, an extraordinary rapid warming has been observed in the last decades. However, little is known about phenological phases over the whole vegetation period at high elevations. We observed 12 phenological phases of seven tree species and measured air temperature at 42 sites along four transects of about 1000 m elevational range in the years 2010 and 2011 near Garmisch‐Partenkirchen, Germany. Site‐ and species‐specific onset dates for the phenological phases were determined and related to elevation, temperature lapse rates and site‐specific temperature sums. Increasing temperatures induced advanced spring and delayed autumn phases, in which both yielded similar magnitudes. Delayed leaf senescence could therefore have been underestimated until now in extending the vegetation period. Not only the vegetation period, but also phenological periods extended with increasing temperature. Moreover, sensitivity to elevation and temperature strongly depends on the specific phenological phase. Differences between species and groups of species (deciduous, evergreen, high elevation) were found in onset dates, phenological response rates and also in the effect of chilling and forcing temperatures. Increased chilling days highly reduced forcing temperature requirements for deciduous trees, but less for evergreen trees. The problem of shifted species associations and phenological mismatches due to species‐specific responses to increasing temperature is a recent topic in ecological research. Therefore, we consider our findings from this novel, dense observation network in an alpine area of particular importance to deepen knowledge on phenological responses to climate change. 相似文献
17.
Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Elsa Youngsteadt Adam G. Dale Adam J. Terando Robert R. Dunn Steven D. Frank 《Global Change Biology》2015,21(1):97-105
Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long‐term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present‐day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural‐forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms. 相似文献
18.
A. L. Knight A. M. El‐Sayed G. J. R. Judd E. Basoalto 《Journal of Applied Entomology》2017,141(9):729-739
We evaluated the effectiveness of 2‐phenylethanol (PET) in combination with acetic acid (AA) as a binary lure for monitoring male and female obliquebanded leafroller, Choristoneura rosaceana (Harris). Studies were conducted in apple, Malus domestica Borkhausen, orchards treated with or without sex pheromone dispensers for mating disruption (MD). Open polypropylene vials, closed membrane cups, and rubber septa loaded with AA and/or PET in varying amounts were first evaluated in a series of trapping experiments. Membrane cups loaded with 800 mg of PET were as effective as 10‐mg septa, but longer lasting, and were comparable to the open vials. A membrane cup AA lure was effective in tests, but further work is needed to increase its release rate and extend its activity. Catches of codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.), and C. rosaceana were unaffected by combining PET with (E,E)‐8,10‐dodecadien‐1‐ol, the sex pheromone of codling moth, pear ester, (E,Z)‐2,4‐ethyl‐decadienoate and AA lures. Adding (E)‐4,8‐dimethyl‐1,3,7‐nonatriene to this blend to enhance codling moth catch significantly reduced catches of C. rosaceana. PET + AA was a more attractive binary lure than AA plus phenylacetonitrile (PAN) for C. rosaceana. The addition of PET or PAN to traps already baited with the sex pheromone of C. rosaceana significantly reduced male catches. Traps baited with PET + AA placed in blocks not treated with MD caught significantly fewer C. rosaceana than traps baited with sex pheromone. In comparison, sex pheromone‐baited traps in MD blocks caught ≤1 male moth per season which was significantly lower than total moth (>10) or female moth (≥3) catch in these blocks with PET + AA. A high proportion (>70%) of trapped females were mated in both untreated and MD‐treated orchards. Further refinement of this binary, bisexual lure using membrane cup technology may allow the establishment of action thresholds and improve management timings for C. rosaceana. 相似文献
19.
Kaitlin S. Wilson Bruce A. Pond Glen S. Brown James A. Schaefer 《Diversity & distributions》2019,25(2):205-216
20.
Jennifer A. Sheridan Nicholas M. Caruso Joseph J. Apodaca Leslie J. Rissler 《Ecology and evolution》2018,8(2):1316-1327
Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km2, and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901–1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961–2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in “space‐for‐time” studies where measures of a species’ traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size. 相似文献