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Based on a unique dataset of more than 50 000 observations of ice phenology from 1213 lakes and 236 rivers in 12 different countries, we show that interannual variations in the timing of ice‐on and ice‐off on lakes and rivers are not equally pronounced over the entire Northern Hemisphere, but increase strongly towards geographical regions that experience only short periods during which the air temperature falls below 0 °C. We explain our observations by interannual fluctuation patterns of air temperature and suggest that lake and river ecosystems in such geographical regions are particularly vulnerable to global warming, as high interannual variability is known to have important ramifications for ecosystem structure and functioning. We estimate that the standard deviation of the duration of ice cover, viewed as a measure of interannual variability, exceeds 25 days for lakes and rivers located on 7% of the land area of the Northern Hemisphere. Such high variability might be an early warning signal for a critical transition from strictly dimictic, ice‐covered systems to monomictic, open‐water systems. Using the Global Lake and Wetland Database, we suggest that 3.7% of the world's lakes larger than 0.1 km2 are at high risk of becoming open‐water systems in the near future, which will have immediate consequences for global biogeochemical cycles.  相似文献   

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Drought‐induced forest decline, like the Scots pine mortality in inner‐Alpine valleys, will gain in importance as the frequency and severity of drought events are expected to increase. To understand how chronic drought affects tree growth and tree‐ring δ13C values, we studied mature Scots pine in an irrigation experiment in an inner‐Alpine valley. Tree growth and isotope analyses were carried out at the annual and seasonal scale. At the seasonal scale, maximum δ13C values were measured after the hottest and driest period of the year, and were associated with decreasing growth rates. Inter‐annual δ13C values in early‐ and latewood showed a strong correlation with annual climatic conditions and an immediate decrease as a response to irrigation. This indicates a tight coupling between wood formation and the freshly produced assimilates for trees exposed to chronic drought. This rapid appearance of the isotopic signal is a strong indication for an immediate and direct transfer of newly synthesized assimilates for biomass production. The fast appearance and the distinct isotopic signal suggest a low availability of old stored carbohydrates. If this was a sign for C‐storage depletion, an increasing mortality could be expected when stressors increase the need for carbohydrate for defence, repair or regeneration.  相似文献   

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