Low concordance of short‐term and long‐term selection responses in experimental Drosophila populations

Experimental evolution is becoming a popular approach to study the genomic selection response of evolving populations. Computer simulation studies suggest that the accuracy of the signature increases with the duration of the experiment. Since some assumptions of the computer simulations may be violated, it is important to scrutinize the influence of the experimental duration with real data. Here, we use a highly replicated Evolve and Resequence study in Drosophila simulans to compare the selection targets inferred at different time points. At each time point, approximately the same number of SNPs deviates from neutral expectations, but only 10% of the selected haplotype blocks identified from the full data set can be detected after 20 generations. Those haplotype blocks that emerge already after 20 generations differ from the others by being strongly selected at the beginning of the experiment and display a more parallel selection response. Consistent with previous computer simulations, our results demonstrate that only Evolve and Resequence experiments with a sufficient number of generations can characterize complex adaptive architectures.     

Interactions between metazoans,autotrophs, mixotrophs and bacterioplankton in nutrient‐depleted high DOC environments: a long‐term experiment

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Carbon dioxide‐ and temperature‐mediated changes in plant defensive compounds alter food utilization of herbivores

Although the impact of elevated carbon dioxide and rising temperature on plants and animals has been extensively documented recently, only limited understanding exists regarding their combined effects. The objective of this research was to address the consequences of using combinations of elevated CO₂ and elevated temperature on a plant's defensive chemistry, and subsequent utilization of the plant as insect food. Our results indicated that elevated CO₂ and increased temperature, for the most part, act independently on the production of defensive compounds in broccoli leaves (Brassica oleracea L. var. italica). CO₂ concentrations had significant effects on the foliar water content, total phenolic compounds, polyphenol oxidase and trypsin inhibitor concentrations. The herbivore Spodoptera litura (Fabricius; Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) responded to changes in the plant secondary chemistry, with larvae consuming more plant materials that had been exposed to elevated CO₂. The food utilization efficiencies of second‐instar larvae were more sensitive to CO₂‐treated foliage than those of the third‐ and fourth‐instar larvae. Temperature did exert a significant effect on food utilization (ECD) by the larvae. Our study will provide important information in future predictions on plant–insect interactions as a result of climate change. The study also demonstrated that since various larval stages might respond differently to climate change, this possibility needs to be considered in future forecasting and monitoring.     

Lifeform indicators reveal large‐scale shifts in plankton across the North‐West European shelf

Increasing direct human pressures on the marine environment, coupled with climate‐driven changes, is a concern to marine ecosystems globally. This requires the development and monitoring of ecosystem indicators for effective management and adaptation planning. Plankton lifeforms (broad functional groups) are sensitive indicators of marine environmental change and can provide a simplified view of plankton biodiversity, building an understanding of change in lower trophic levels. Here, we visualize regional‐scale multi‐decadal trends in six key plankton lifeforms as well as their correlative relationships with sea surface temperature (SST). For the first time, we collate trends across multiple disparate surveys, comparing the spatially and temporally extensive Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey (offshore) with multiple long‐term fixed station‐based time‐series (inshore) from around the UK coastline. These analyses of plankton lifeforms showed profound long‐term changes, which were coherent across large spatial scales. For example, ‘diatom’ and ‘meroplankton’ lifeforms showed strong alignment between surveys and coherent regional‐scale trends, with the 1998–2017 decadal average abundance of meroplankton being 2.3 times that of 1958–1967 for CPR samples in the North Sea. This major, shelf‐wide increase in meroplankton correlated with increasing SSTs, and contrasted with a general decrease in holoplankton (dominated by small copepods), indicating a changing balance of benthic and pelagic fauna. Likewise, inshore‐offshore gradients in dinoflagellate trends, with contemporary increases inshore contrasting with multi‐decadal decreases offshore (approx. 75% lower decadal mean abundance), urgently require the identification of causal mechanisms. Our lifeform approach allows the collation of many different data types and time‐series across the NW European shelf, providing a crucial evidence base for informing ecosystem‐based management, and the development of regional adaptation plans.     

A test of fundamental questions in mimicry theory using long‐term datasets

Since the phenomenon of mimicry was first described by Bates in 1862 it has become one of the foundational examples of adaptive evolution. Numerous subcategories of mimicry and dozens of hypotheses pertaining to its evolution and maintenance have been proposed. Many of these hypotheses, however, are difficult to test in experimental settings, and data from natural observations are often inadequate. Here we use data from a long‐term survey of butterfly presence and abundance to test several hypotheses pertaining to Batesian and female‐limited polymorphic mimicry (FPM; a special case of Batesian mimicry). We found strong evidence that models outnumber mimics in both mimicry systems, but no evidence for an increase in relative abundance of FPM mimics to their Batesian counterparts. Tests of the early‐emergence/model first hypothesis showed strong evidence that the Batesian mimic routinely emerges after the model, while emergence timing in the FPM system was site specific, suggesting that other ecological factors are at play. These results demonstrate the importance of long‐term field observations for testing evolutionary and ecological hypotheses.     

Climate change accelerates local disease extinction rates in a long‐term wild host–pathogen association

Pathogens are a significant component of all plant communities. In recent years, the potential for existing and emerging pathogens of agricultural crops to cause increased yield losses as a consequence of changing climatic patterns has raised considerable concern. In contrast, the response of naturally occurring, endemic pathogens to a warming climate has received little attention. Here, we report on the impact of a signature variable of global climate change – increasing temperature – on the long‐term epidemiology of a natural host–pathogen association involving the rust pathogen Triphragmium ulmariae and its host plant Filipendula ulmaria. In a host–pathogen metapopulation involving approximately 230 host populations growing on an archipelago of islands in the Gulf of Bothnia we assessed changes in host population size and pathogen epidemiological measures over a 25‐year period. We show how the incidence of disease and its severity declines over that period and most importantly demonstrate a positive association between a long‐term trend of increasing extinction rates in individual pathogen populations of the metapopulation and increasing temperature. Our results are highly suggestive that changing climatic patterns, particularly mean monthly growing season (April‐November) temperature, are markedly influencing the epidemiology of plant disease in this host–pathogen association. Given the important role plant pathogens have in shaping the structure of communities, changes in the epidemiology of pathogens have potentially far‐reaching impacts on ecological and evolutionary processes. For these reasons, it is essential to increase understanding of pathogen epidemiology, its response to warming, and to invoke these responses in forecasts for the future.     

Climate change reduces offspring fitness in littoral spawners: a study integrating organismic response and long‐term time‐series

Integrating long‐term ecological observations with experimental findings on species response and tolerance to environmental stress supports an understanding of climate effects on population dynamics. Here, we combine the two approaches, laboratory experiments and analysis of multi‐decadal time‐series, to understand the consequences of climate anomalies and ongoing change for the population dynamics of a eurythermal littoral species, Carcinus aestuarii. For the generation of cause and effect hypotheses we investigated the thermal response of crab embryos at four developmental stages. We first measured metabolic rate variations in embryos following acute warming (16–24 °C) and after incubation at 20 and 24 °C for limited periods. All experiments consistently revealed differential thermal responses depending on the developmental stage. Temperature‐induced changes in metabolic activity of early embryonic stages of blastula and gastrula suggested the onset of abnormal development. In contrast, later developmental stages, characterized by tissue and organ differentiation, were marginally affected by temperature anomalies, indicating enhanced resilience to thermal stress. Then, we extended these findings to a larger, population scale, by analyzing a time‐series of C. aestuarii landings in the Venice lagoon from 1945 to 2010 (ripe crabs were recorded separately) in relation to temperature. Landings and extreme climatic events showed marked long‐term and short‐term variations. We found negative relationships between landings and thermal stress indices on both timescales, with time lags consistent with an impact on crab early life stages. When quantitatively evaluating the influence of thermal stress on population dynamics, we found that it has a comparable effect to that of the biomass of spawners. This work provides strong evidence that physiological responses to climatic anomalies translate into population‐level changes and that apparently tolerant species may be impacted before the ontogeny of eurythermy. These ontogenetic bottlenecks markedly shape population dynamics and require study to assess the effects of global change.     

Polymorphism at the Clock gene predicts phenology of long‐distance migration in birds

Dissecting phenotypic variance in life history traits into its genetic and environmental components is at the focus of evolutionary studies and of pivotal importance to identify the mechanisms and predict the consequences of human‐driven environmental change. The timing of recurrent life history events (phenology) is under strong selection, but the study of the genes that control potential environmental canalization in phenological traits is at its infancy. Candidate genes for circadian behaviour entrained by photoperiod have been screened as potential controllers of phenological variation of breeding and moult in birds, with inconsistent results. Despite photoperiodic control of migration is well established, no study has reported on migration phenology in relation to polymorphism at candidate genes in birds. We analysed variation in spring migration dates within four trans‐Saharan migratory species (Luscinia megarhynchos; Ficedula hypoleuca; Anthus trivialis; Saxicola rubetra) at a Mediterranean island in relation to Clock and Adcyap1 polymorphism. Individuals with larger number of glutamine residues in the poly‐Q region of Clock gene migrated significantly later in one or, respectively, two species depending on sex and whether the within‐individual mean length or the length of the longer Clock allele was considered. The results hinted at dominance of the longer Clock allele. No significant evidence for migration date to covary with Adcyap1 polymorphism emerged. This is the first evidence that migration phenology is associated with Clock in birds. This finding is important for evolutionary studies of migration and sheds light on the mechanisms that drive bird phenological changes and population trends in response to climate change.     

Multi‐stage disruption of freshwater mussel reproduction by high suspended solids in short‐ and long‐term brooders

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Long‐term continental changes in wing length,but not bill length,of a long‐distance migratory shorebird

We compiled a >50‐year record of morphometrics for semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pusilla), a shorebird species with a Nearctic breeding distribution and intercontinental migration to South America. Our data included >57,000 individuals captured 1972–2015 at five breeding locations and three major stopover sites, plus 139 museum specimens collected in earlier decades. Wing length increased by ca. 1.5 mm (>1%) prior to 1980, followed by a decrease of 3.85 mm (nearly 4%) over the subsequent 35 years. This can account for previously reported changes in metrics at a migratory stopover site from 1985 to 2006. Wing length decreased at a rate of 1,098 darwins, or 0.176 haldanes, within the ranges of other field studies of phenotypic change. Bill length, in contrast, showed no consistent change over the full period of our study. Decreased body size as a universal response of animal populations to climate warming, and several other potential mechanisms, are unable to account for the increasing and decreasing wing length pattern observed. We propose that the post‐WWII near‐extirpation of falcon populations and their post‐1973 recovery driven by the widespread use and subsequent limitation on DDT in North America selected initially for greater flight efficiency and latterly for greater agility. This predation danger hypothesis accounts for many features of the morphometric data and deserves further investigation in this and other species.     

The combined effects of a long‐term experimental drought and an extreme drought on the use of plant‐water sources in a Mediterranean forest

Vegetation in water‐limited ecosystems relies strongly on access to deep water reserves to withstand dry periods. Most of these ecosystems have shallow soils over deep groundwater reserves. Understanding the functioning and functional plasticity of species‐specific root systems and the patterns of or differences in the use of water sources under more frequent or intense droughts is therefore necessary to properly predict the responses of seasonally dry ecosystems to future climate. We used stable isotopes to investigate the seasonal patterns of water uptake by a sclerophyll forest on sloped terrain with shallow soils. We assessed the effect of a long‐term experimental drought (12 years) and the added impact of an extreme natural drought that produced widespread tree mortality and crown defoliation. The dominant species, Quercus ilex, Arbutus unedo and Phillyrea latifolia, all have dimorphic root systems enabling them to access different water sources in space and time. The plants extracted water mainly from the soil in the cold and wet seasons but increased their use of groundwater during the summer drought. Interestingly, the plants subjected to the long‐term experimental drought shifted water uptake toward deeper (10–35 cm) soil layers during the wet season and reduced groundwater uptake in summer, indicating plasticity in the functional distribution of fine roots that dampened the effect of our experimental drought over the long term. An extreme drought in 2011, however, further reduced the contribution of deep soil layers and groundwater to transpiration, which resulted in greater crown defoliation in the drought‐affected plants. This study suggests that extreme droughts aggravate moderate but persistent drier conditions (simulated by our manipulation) and may lead to the depletion of water from groundwater reservoirs and weathered bedrock, threatening the preservation of these Mediterranean ecosystems in their current structures and compositions.     

The stress hormone corticosterone in a marine top predator reflects short‐term changes in food availability

In many seabird studies, single annual proxies of prey abundance have been used to explain variability in breeding performance, but much more important is probably the timing of prey availability relative to the breeding season when energy demand is at a maximum. Until now, intraseasonal variation in prey availability has been difficult to quantify in seabirds. Using a state‐of‐the‐art ocean drift model of larval cod Gadus morhua, an important constituent of the diet of common guillemots Uria aalge in the southwestern Barents Sea, we were able to show clear, short‐term correlations between food availability and measurements of the stress hormone corticosterone (CORT) in parental guillemots over a 3‐year period (2009–2011). The model allowed the extraction of abundance and size of cod larvae with very high spatial (4 km) and temporal resolutions (1 day) and showed that cod larvae from adjacent northern spawning grounds in Norway were always available near the guillemot breeding colony while those from more distant southerly spawning grounds were less frequent, but larger. The latter arrived in waves whose magnitude and timing, and thus overlap with the guillemot breeding season, varied between years. CORT levels in adult guillemots were lower in birds caught after a week with high frequencies of southern cod larvae. This pattern was restricted to the two years (2009 and 2010) in which southern larvae arrived before the end of the guillemot breeding season. Any such pattern was masked in 2011 by already exceptionally high numbers of cod larvae in the region throughout chick‐rearing period. The findings suggest that CORT levels in breeding birds increase when the arrival of southern sizable larvae does not match the period of peak energy requirements during breeding.     

Dwarf shrub and grass vegetation resistant to long‐term experimental warming while microarthropod abundance declines on the Falkland Islands

Dwarf shrubs are a dominant plant type across many regions of the Earth and have hence a large impact on carbon and nutrient cycling rates. Climate change impacts on dwarf shrubs have been extensively studied in the Northern Hemisphere, and there appears to be large variability in response between ecosystem types and regions. In the Southern Hemisphere, less data are available despite dwarf shrub vegetation being a dominant feature of southern South America and mountainous regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present the response of an Empetrum rubrum dwarf shrub and a Poa grass community to 12 years of experimental climate manipulation achieved using open top chambers on the Falkland Islands, a cold temperate island group in the South Atlantic. The dwarf shrub and grass vegetation did not change significantly in cover, biomass or species richness over the 12 years period in response to climate warming scenarios of up to 1°C reflecting annual warming levels predicted in this region for the coming decades. The soil microarthropod community, however, responded with declines in abundance (37%) under warming conditions in the grass community, but no such changes were observed in the dwarf shrub community. Overall, our data indicate that dwarf shrub communities are resistant to the levels of climate warming predicted over the coming decades in the southern South America region and will, therefore, remain a dominant driver of local ecosystem properties.     

Long‐term dynamics in microbial eukaryotes communities: a palaeolimnological view based on sedimentary DNA

Assessing the extent to which changes in lacustrine biodiversity are affected by anthropogenic or climatic forces requires extensive palaeolimnological data. We used high‐throughput sequencing to generate time‐series data encompassing over 2200 years of microbial eukaryotes (protists and Fungi) diversity changes from the sedimentary DNA record of two lakes (Lake Bourget in French Alps and Lake Igaliku in Greenland). From 176 samples, we sequenced a large diversity of microbial eukaryotes, with a total 16 386 operational taxonomic units distributed within 50 phylogenetic groups. Thus, microbial groups, such as Chlorophyta, Dinophyceae, Haptophyceae and Ciliophora, that were not previously considered in lacustrine sediment record analyses appeared to be potential biological markers of trophic status changes. Our data suggest that shifts in relative abundance of extant species, including shifts between rare and abundant taxa, drive ecosystem responses to local and global environmental changes. Community structure shift events were concomitant with major climate variations (more particularly in Lake Igaliku). However, this study shows that the impacts of climatic fluctuations may be overpassed by the high‐magnitude eutrophication impacts, as observed in the eutrophicated Lake Bourget. Overall, our data show that DNA preserved in sediment constitutes a precious archive of information on past biodiversity changes.     

Spatially variable habitat quality contributes to within‐population variation in reproductive success

Variation in habitat quality is common across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats. We investigated how habitat quality influenced the reproductive potential of mud crabs across 30 oyster reefs that were degraded to different extents. We further coupled this field survey with a laboratory experiment designed to mechanistically determine the relationship between resource consumption and reproductive performance. We show a >10‐fold difference in average reproductive potential for crabs across reefs of different quality. Calculated consumption rates for crabs in each reef, based on a type II functional response, suggest that differences in reproductive performance may be attributed to resource limitation in poor quality reefs. This conclusion is supported by results of our laboratory experiment where crabs fed a higher quality diet of abundant animal tissue had greater reproductive performance. Our results demonstrate that spatial variation in habitat quality can be a considerable contributor to within‐population individual variation in reproductive success (i.e., demographic heterogeneity). This finding has important implications for assessing population extinction risk.     

Short‐term acclimation to warmer temperatures accelerates leaf carbon exchange processes across plant types

While temperature responses of photosynthesis and plant respiration are known to acclimate over time in many species, few studies have been designed to directly compare process‐level differences in acclimation capacity among plant types. We assessed short‐term (7 day) temperature acclimation of the maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation (V_cmax), the maximum rate of electron transport (J_max), the maximum rate of phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase carboxylation (V_pmax), and foliar dark respiration (R_d) in 22 plant species that varied in lifespan (annual and perennial), photosynthetic pathway (C₃ and C₄), and climate of origin (tropical and nontropical) grown under fertilized, well‐watered conditions. In general, acclimation to warmer temperatures increased the rate of each process. The relative increase in different photosynthetic processes varied by plant type, with C₃ species tending to preferentially accelerate CO₂‐limited photosynthetic processes and respiration and C₄ species tending to preferentially accelerate light‐limited photosynthetic processes under warmer conditions. R_d acclimation to warmer temperatures caused a reduction in temperature sensitivity that resulted in slower rates at high leaf temperatures. R_d acclimation was similar across plant types. These results suggest that temperature acclimation of the biochemical processes that underlie plant carbon exchange is common across different plant types, but that acclimation to warmer temperatures tends to have a relatively greater positive effect on the processes most limiting to carbon assimilation, which differ by plant type. The acclimation responses observed here suggest that warmer conditions should lead to increased rates of carbon assimilation when water and nutrients are not limiting.