Future vulnerability mapping based on response to extreme climate events: Dieback thresholds in an endemic California oak

Aim

This study presents a bioclimate modelling approach, using responses to extreme climate events, rather than historical distributional associations, to project future species vulnerability and refugia. We aim to illustrate the compounding effects of groundwater loss and climate on species vulnerability.

Location

California, USA.

Methods

As a case study, we used the 2012–2015 California drought and resulting extensive dieback of blue oak (Quercus douglasii). We used aerial dieback surveys, downscaled climate data and subsurface water change data to develop boosted regression tree models identifying key thresholds associated with dieback throughout the blue oak distribution. We (1) combined observed dieback–climatic threshold relationships with climate futures to anticipate future areas of vulnerability and (2) used satellite‐derived measurements of subsurface water loss in drought/dieback modelling to capture the mediating effect of groundwater on species response to climatic drought.

Results

A model including climate, climate anomalies and subsurface water change explained 46% of the variability in dieback. Precipitation in 2015 and subsurface water change accounted for 62.6% of the modelled probability of dieback. We found an interaction between precipitation and subsurface water in which dieback probability increased with low precipitation and subsurface water loss. The relationship between precipitation and dieback was nonlinear, with 99% of dieback occurring in areas that received <363 mm precipitation. Based on a MIROC_rcp85 future climate scenario, relative to historical conditions, 13% of the blue oak distribution is predicted to experience more frequent years below this precipitation threshold by mid‐century and 81% by end of century.

Main conclusions

As ongoing climate change and extreme events impact ecological processes, the identification of thresholds associated with observed dieback may be combined with climate futures to help identify vulnerable populations and refugia and prioritize climate change‐related conservation efforts.     

Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process‐based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear‐edges

Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought‐prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear‐edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear‐edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree‐ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process‐based Vaganov–Shashkin‐Lite growth model and climate–growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO₂ emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear‐edge. By contrast, growth of high‐elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of ?10.7% and ?16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear‐edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear‐edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions.     

Increased water‐use efficiency translates into contrasting growth patterns of Scots pine and sessile oak at their southern distribution limits

In forests, the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (C_a) has been related to enhanced tree growth and intrinsic water‐use efficiency (iWUE). However, in drought‐prone areas such as the Mediterranean Basin, it is not yet clear to what extent this “fertilizing” effect may compensate for drought‐induced growth reduction. We investigated tree growth and physiological responses at five Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and five sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) sites located at their southernmost distribution limits in Europe for the period 1960–2012 using annually resolved tree‐ring width and δ¹³C data to track ecophysiological processes. Results indicated that all 10 natural stands significantly increased their leaf intercellular CO₂ concentration (C_i), and consequently iWUE. Different trends in the theoretical gas‐exchange scenarios as a response to increasing C_a were found: generally, C_i tended to increase proportionally to C_a, except for trees at the driest sites in which C_i remained constant. C_i from the oak sites displaying higher water availability tended to increase at a comparable rate to C_a. Multiple linear models fitted at site level to predict basal area increment (BAI) using iWUE and climatic variables better explained tree growth in pines (31.9%–71.4%) than in oak stands (15.8%–46.8%). iWUE was negatively linked to pine growth, whereas its effect on growth of oak differed across sites. Tree growth in the western and central oak stands was negatively related to iWUE, whereas BAI from the easternmost stand was positively associated with iWUE. Thus, some Q. petraea stands might have partially benefited from the “fertilizing” effect of rising C_a, whereas P. sylvestris stands due to their strict closure of stomata did not profit from increased iWUE and consequently showed in general growth reductions across sites. Additionally, the inter‐annual variability of BAI and iWUE displayed a geographical polarity in the Mediterranean.     

Tree vigour influences secondary growth but not responsiveness to climatic variability in Holm oak

Many tree species from Mediterranean regions have started to show increased rates of crown defoliation, reduced growth, and dieback associated with the increase in temperatures and changes in the frequency and intensity of drought events experienced during the last decades. In this regard, Quercus ilex L. subsp. ballota [Desf.] (Holm oak), despite being a drought-tolerant species widely distributed in the Mediterranean basin, it has recently started to show acute signs of decline, extended areas from Spain being affected. However, few studies have assessed the role of climatic variability (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and drought) on the decline and resilience of Holm oak. Here, we measured secondary growth of seventy Holm oaks from a coppice stand located in central Spain. Sampled trees had different stages of decline, so they were classified into four vigour groups considering their crown foliar lost: healthy (0%), low defoliated (<25%), highly defoliated (25–70%), and dying (70–100%). Our results showed that during the study period (1980–2009) the highly defoliated and dying Holm oaks grew significantly less than their healthy and low defoliated neighbours, suggesting permanent growth reduction in the less vigorous individuals. Despite these differences, all four vigour groups showed similar responses to climatic variations, especially during winter and late spring – early summer seasons, and similar resilience after severe drought events, managing to significantly recover to pre-drought growth rates after only two years. Our findings, hence, illustrate that tree vigour influences secondary growth but not responsiveness to climatic variability in Holm oak. Still, as reduced growth rates are frequently associated with the process of tree mortality, we conclude that the less vigorous Holm oaks might not be able to cope with future water stress conditions, leading to increased mortality rates among this emblematic Mediterranean species.     

Cavitation,stomatal conductance,and leaf dieback in seedlings of two co-occurring Mediterranean shrubs during an intense drought

Seedling shrubs in the Mediterranean semi-arid climate are subjected to intense droughts during summer. Thus, seedlings often surpass their limits of tolerance to water stress, resulting in the loss of hydraulic conductivity due to xylem cavitation. The response in terms of stomatal conductance, vulnerability to cavitation, leaf dieback, and survival were analysed in two co-occurring seedlings of mastic tree (Pistacia lentiscus L.) and kermes oak (Quercus coccifera L.) during an intense drought period. Both species reacted to drought with steep decreases in stomatal conductance before the critical water potential brought about the onset of cavitation events. Q. coccifera showed wider safety margins for avoiding runaway embolism than P. lentiscus and these differences could be related to the particular drought strategy displayed by each species: water saver or water spender. The limits for survival, resprout capacity and leaf dieback were also analysed in terms of loss of conductivity. By contrast with previous studies, the species showing higher seedling survival in the presence of drought also showed higher susceptibility to cavitation and operated with a lower safety margin for cavitation. Both species showed a leaf specific conductivity (LSC) threshold below which leaf biomass had to be regulated to avoid runaway embolism. However, each species displayed a different type of response: P. lentiscus conserved total leaf area up to 100% loss of LSC, whereas Q. coccifera continuously adjusted leaf biomass throughout the drought period in order to maintain the LSC very close to the maximum values recorded without loss of conductivity. Both species maintained the capacity for survival until the loss of conductivity was very nearly 100%.     

Drought stress limits the geographic ranges of two tree species via different physiological mechanisms

Range shifts are among the most ubiquitous ecological responses to anthropogenic climate change and have large consequences for ecosystems. Unfortunately, the ecophysiological forces that constrain range boundaries are poorly understood, making it difficult to mechanistically project range shifts. To explore the physiological mechanisms by which drought stress controls dry range boundaries in trees, we quantified elevational variation in drought tolerance and in drought avoidance‐related functional traits of a widespread gymnosperm (ponderosa pine – Pinus ponderosa) and angiosperm (trembling aspen – Populus tremuloides) tree species in the southwestern USA. Specifically, we quantified tree‐to‐tree variation in growth, water stress (predawn and midday xylem tension), drought avoidance traits (branch conductivity, leaf/needle size, tree height, leaf area‐to‐sapwood area ratio), and drought tolerance traits (xylem resistance to embolism, hydraulic safety margin, wood density) at the range margins and range center of each species. Although water stress increased and growth declined strongly at lower range margins of both species, ponderosa pine and aspen showed contrasting patterns of clinal trait variation. Trembling aspen increased its drought tolerance at its dry range edge by growing stronger but more carbon dense branch and leaf tissues, implying an increased cost of growth at its range boundary. By contrast, ponderosa pine showed little elevational variation in drought‐related traits but avoided drought stress at low elevations by limiting transpiration through stomatal closure, such that its dry range boundary is associated with limited carbon assimilation even in average climatic conditions. Thus, the same climatic factor (drought) may drive range boundaries through different physiological mechanisms – a result that has important implications for process‐based modeling approaches to tree biogeography. Further, we show that comparing intraspecific patterns of trait variation across ranges, something rarely done in a range‐limit context, helps elucidate a mechanistic understanding of range constraints.     

Seedling response to water stress in valley oak (Quercus lobata) is shaped by different gene networks across populations

Drought is a major stress for plants, creating a strong selection pressure for traits that enable plant growth and survival in dry environments. Many drought responses are conserved species‐wide responses, while others vary among populations distributed across heterogeneous environments. We tested how six populations of the widely distributed California valley oak (Quercus lobata) sampled from contrasting climates would differ in their response to soil drying relative to well‐watered controls in a common environment by measuring ecophysiological traits in 93 individuals and gene expression (RNA‐seq) in 42 individuals. Populations did not differ in their adjustment of turgor loss point during soil drying, suggesting a generalized species‐wide response. Differential expression analysis identified 689 genes with a common response to treatment across populations and 470 genes with population‐specific responses. Weighted gene co‐expression network analysis (WGCNA) identified groups of genes with similar expression patterns that may be regulated together (gene modules). Several gene modules responded differently to water stress among populations, suggesting regional differences in gene network regulation. Populations from sites with a high mean annual temperature responded to the imposed water stress with significantly greater changes in gene module expression, indicating that these populations may be locally adapted to respond to drought. We propose that this variation among valley oak populations provides a mechanism for differential tolerance to the increasingly frequent and severe droughts in California.     

Long‐term successional forest dynamics: species and community responses to climatic variability

Question: Are trees sensitive to climatic variability, and do tree species differ in their responses to climatic variability? Does sensitivity of forest communities to climatic variability depend on stand composition? Location: Mixed young forest at Walker Branch Watershed near Oak Ridge, East Tennessee, USA. Methods: Using a long‐term dataset (1967–2006), we analyzed temporal forest dynamics at the tree and species level, and community dynamics for forest stands that differed in initial species composition (i.e., chestnut oak, oak–hickory, pine, and yellow poplar stands). Using summer drought and growing season temperature as defined climate drivers, we evaluated relationships between forest dynamics and climate across levels of organization. Results: Over the four‐decade study period, forest communities underwent successional change and substantially increased in biomass. Variation in summer drought and growing season temperature contributed to temporal biomass dynamics for some tree species, but not for others. Stand‐level responses to climatic variability were related to the responses of component species, except in pine stands. Pinus echinata, the dominant species in pine stands, decreased over time due to periodic outbreaks of pine bark beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis). These outbreaks at Walker Branch could not be directly related to climatic conditions. Conclusions: The results indicate that sensitivity of developing forests to climatic variability is stand type‐dependent, and hence is a function of species composition. However, in the long term, direct effects of climatic variability on forest dynamics may be small relative to autogenic successional processes or climate‐related insect outbreaks. Empirical studies testing for interactions between forest succession and climatic variability are needed.     

Topography modulates climate sensitivity of multidecadal trends of holm oak decline

Forest decline events have increased worldwide over the last decades being holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) one of the tree species with the most worrying trends across Europe. Since this is one of the tree species with the southernmost distribution within the European continent, its vulnerability to climate change is a phenomenon of enormous ecological importance. Previous research identified drought and soil pathogens as the main causes behind holm oak decline. However, despite tree health loss is a multifactorial phenomenon where abiotic and biotic factors interact in time and space, there are some abiotic factors whose influence has been commonly overlooked. Here, we evaluate how land use (forests versus savannas), topography, and climate extremes jointly determine the spatiotemporal patterns of holm oak defoliation trends over almost three decades (1987–2014) in Spain, where holm oak represents the 25% of the national forested area. We found an increasing defoliation trend in 119 out of the total 134 holm oak plots evaluated, being this defoliation trend significantly higher in forests compared with savannas. Moreover, we have detected that the interaction between topography (which covariates with the land use) and summer precipitation anomalies explains trends of holm oak decline across the Mediterranean region. While a higher occurrence of dry summers increases defoliation trends in steeper terrains where forests dominate, an inverse relationship was found in flatter terrains where savannas are mainly located. These opposite relationships suggest different causal mechanisms behind decline. Whereas hydric stress is likely to occur in steeper terrains where soil water holding capacity is limited, soil waterlogging usually occurs in flatter terrains what increases tree vulnerability to soil pathogens. Our results contribute to the growing evidence of the influence of local topography on forest resilience and could assist in the identification of potential tree decline hotspots and its main causes over the Mediterranean region.     

Climate response among growth increments of fish and trees

Significant correlations were found among the annual growth increments of stream fish, trees, and climate variables in the Ozark region of the United States. The variation in annual growth increments of rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris) from the Jacks Fork River was significantly correlated over 22 years with the ring width of four tree species: white oak (Quercus alba), post oak (Quercus stellata), shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and eastern red cedar (Juniperus virginiana). Rock bass growth and tree growth were both significantly correlated with July rainfall and stream discharge. Variations in annual growth of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) from four streams were significantly correlated over 29 years (1939–1968) with mean May maximum air temperature but not with tree growth. The magnitude and significance of correlations among growth increments from fish and trees imply that conditions such as topography, stream gradient, organism age, and the distribution of a population relative to its geographic range can influence the climatic response of an organism. The timing and intensity of climatic variables may produce different responses among closely related species.     

Demographic shifts in eastern US forests increase the impact of late-season drought on forest growth

While forest communities are changing as a result of global environmental change, the impacts of tree species shifts on ecosystem services such as carbon storage are poorly quantified. In many parts of the eastern United States (US), more xeric-adapted oak-hickory dominated stands are being replaced with mesic beech-maple assemblages. To examine the possible impacts of this ongoing change in forest composition, we investigated how two wide-ranging and co-occurring eastern US species – Acer saccharum (sugar maple) and Quercus alba (white oak) – respond to interannual climate variability. Using 781 tree cores from 418 individual trees at 18 locations, we found late-growing season drought reduced A. saccharum growth more than that of Q. alba. A gradient in the growth reduction across latitude was also found in A. saccharum, where southern populations of A. saccharum experienced greater reductions in growth during drought. Drought had a legacy effect on growth for both species, with drought occurring later in the growing season having a larger legacy effect. Consequently, as forests shift from oak to maple dominance, drought in the later part of the growing season is likely to become an increasingly important control on forest productivity. Thus, our findings suggest that co-occurring species are responding to environmental conditions during different times in the growing season and, therefore, the timing of drought conditions will play an important role in forest productivity and carbon sequestration as forest species composition changes. These findings are particularly important because the projected increases in potential evapotranspiration, combined with possible changes in the seasonality of precipitation could have a substantial impact on how tree growth responds to future climatic change.     

Evidence of hydraulic lift in a young beech and oak mixed forest using 18O soil water labelling

Hydraulic lift (HL) by tree roots in a young, broad-leaved, mixed temperate European forest was investigated during the 2008 growing season by injecting ¹⁸O-enriched soil water at a depth of 75–90 cm under drought conditions experimentally imposed in a rain-exclusion system. Based on sap flow, leaf water potential, 2-D root distribution measurements, soil isotope profiles, and xylem water isotope composition, water acquisition and use by two tree species, beech (Fagus sylvatica) and oak (Quercus petraea) was compared. We showed that, unlike oak, beech experienced a marked decrease in sap flow and predawn leaf water potential with increasing soil drought. This behaviour was logical considering the shallower root system in beech than in oak. Six days after ¹⁸O-labelling, we observed isotopic enrichment in the shallower soil layers. Since the intermediate soil layers did not display any enrichment, our results clearly pointed to hydraulic lift by tree roots. The superficial enrichment that was observed in the vicinity of oak trunks and the increase in the isotopic signature of xylem sap in the oak trees but not in the beech trees confirmed the predominant role of oak in the hydraulic lift at our site. Even though facilitation for water acquisition among species was not observed here, our results suggest a potential positive contribution of species like oak toward maintaining species diversity in mixed forest ecosystems submitted to severe drought events.     

Tests of species‐specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean‐climate tree: insights from integrative distributional,demographic and coalescent modelling and ABC model selection

Past climate change has caused shifts in species distributions and undoubtedly impacted patterns of genetic variation, but the biological processes mediating responses to climate change, and their genetic signatures, are often poorly understood. We test six species‐specific biologically informed hypotheses about such processes in canyon live oak (Quercus chrysolepis) from the California Floristic Province. These hypotheses encompass the potential roles of climatic niche, niche multidimensionality, physiological trade‐offs in functional traits, and local‐scale factors (microsites and local adaptation within ecoregions) in structuring genetic variation. Specifically, we use ecological niche models (ENMs) to construct temporally dynamic landscapes where the processes invoked by each hypothesis are reflected by differences in local habitat suitabilities. These landscapes are used to simulate expected patterns of genetic variation under each model and evaluate the fit of empirical data from 13 microsatellite loci genotyped in 226 individuals from across the species range. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we obtain very strong support for two statistically indistinguishable models: a trade‐off model in which growth rate and drought tolerance drive habitat suitability and genetic structure, and a model based on the climatic niche estimated from a generic ENM, in which the variables found to make the most important contribution to the ENM have strong conceptual links to drought stress. The two most probable models for explaining the patterns of genetic variation thus share a common component, highlighting the potential importance of seasonal drought in driving historical range shifts in a temperate tree from a Mediterranean climate where summer drought is common.     

Environmental drivers interactively affect individual tree growth across temperate European forests

Forecasting the growth of tree species to future environmental changes requires a better understanding of its determinants. Tree growth is known to respond to global‐change drivers such as climate change or atmospheric deposition, as well as to local land‐use drivers such as forest management. Yet, large geographical scale studies examining interactive growth responses to multiple global‐change drivers are relatively scarce and rarely consider management effects. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of three global‐change drivers (temperature, precipitation and nitrogen deposition) on individual tree growth of three study species (Quercus robur/petraea, Fagus sylvatica and Fraxinus excelsior). We sampled trees along spatial environmental gradients across Europe and accounted for the effects of management for Quercus. We collected increment cores from 267 trees distributed over 151 plots in 19 forest regions and characterized their neighbouring environment to take into account potentially confounding factors such as tree size, competition, soil conditions and elevation. We demonstrate that growth responds interactively to global‐change drivers, with species‐specific sensitivities to the combined factors. Simultaneously high levels of precipitation and deposition benefited Fraxinus, but negatively affected Quercus’ growth, highlighting species‐specific interactive tree growth responses to combined drivers. For Fagus, a stronger growth response to higher temperatures was found when precipitation was also higher, illustrating the potential negative effects of drought stress under warming for this species. Furthermore, we show that past forest management can modulate the effects of changing temperatures on Quercus’ growth; individuals in plots with a coppicing history showed stronger growth responses to higher temperatures. Overall, our findings highlight how tree growth can be interactively determined by global‐change drivers, and how these growth responses might be modulated by past forest management. By showing future growth changes for scenarios of environmental change, we stress the importance of considering multiple drivers, including past management and their interactions, when predicting tree growth.     

Historical and event‐based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation

Vulnerability to climate change, and particularly to climate extreme events, is expected to vary across species ranges. Thus, we need tools to standardize the variability in regional climatic legacy and extreme climate across populations and species. Extreme climate events (e.g., droughts) can erode populations close to the limits of species' climatic tolerance. Populations in climatic‐core locations may also become vulnerable because they have developed a greater demand for resources (i.e., water) that cannot be enough satisfied during the periods of scarcity. These mechanisms can become exacerbated in tree populations when combined with antagonistic biotic interactions, such as insect infestation. We used climatic suitability indices derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to standardize the climatic conditions experienced across Pinus edulis populations in southwestern North America, during a historical period (1972–2000) and during an extreme event (2001–2007), when the compound effect of hot drought and bark beetle infestation caused widespread die‐off and mortality. Pinus edulis climatic suitability diminished dramatically during the die‐off period, with remarkable variation between years. P. edulis die‐off occurred mainly not just in sites that experienced lower climatic suitability during the drought but also where climatic suitability was higher during the historical period. The combined effect of historically high climatic suitability and a marked decrease in the climatic suitability during the drought best explained the range‐wide mortality. Lagged effects of climatic suitability loss in previous years and co‐occurrence of Juniperus monosperma also explained P. edulis die‐off in particular years. Overall, the study shows that past climatic legacy, likely determining acclimation, together with competitive interactions plays a major role in responses to extreme drought. It also provides a new approach to standardize the magnitude of climatic variability across populations using SDMs, improving our capacity to predict population's or species' vulnerability to climatic change.     

Summer drought exposure,stand structure,and soil properties jointly control the growth of European beech along a steep precipitation gradient in northern Germany

Increasing exposure to climate warming-related drought and heat threatens forest vitality in many regions on earth, with the trees' vulnerability likely depending on local climatic aridity, recent climate trends, edaphic conditions, and the drought acclimatization and adaptation of populations. Studies exploring tree species' vulnerability to climate change often have a local focus or model the species' entire distribution range, which hampers the separation of climatic and edaphic drivers of drought and heat vulnerability. We compared recent radial growth trends and the sensitivity of growth to drought and heat in central populations of a widespread and naturally dominant tree species in Europe, European beech (Fagus sylvatica), at 30 forest sites across a steep precipitation gradient (500–850 mm year⁻¹) of short length to assess the species' adaptive potential. Size-standardized basal area increment remained more constant during the period of accelerated warming since the early 1980s in populations with >360 mm growing season precipitation (April–September), while growth trends were negative at sites with <360 mm. Climatic drought in June appeared as the most influential climatic factor affecting radial growth, with a stronger effect at drier sites. A decadal decrease in the climatic water balance of the summer was identified as the most important factor leading to growth decline, which is amplified by higher stem densities. Inter-annual growth variability has increased since the early 1980s, and variability is generally higher at drier and sandier sites. Similarly, within-population growth synchrony is higher at sandier sites and has increased with a decrease in the June climatic water balance. Our results caution against predicting the drought vulnerability of trees solely from climate projections, as soil properties emerged as an important modulating factor. We conclude that beech is facing recent growth decline at drier sites in the centre of its distribution range, driven by climate change-related climate aridification.     

Differential ecophysiological responses to seasonal drought of three co-existing oak species in northern Greece

Oaks (Quercus spp.) represent the most important broadleaf genus with respect to forest-shaping tree species in the Mediterranean. Considering future climate scenarios (increased drought conditions), the identification of drought tolerant oak species is of great importance for future forest management in this region. The objective of the study was the comparison of physiological status of three economically and ecologically valuable oak species (Quercus ilex, Quercus frainetto and Quercus pubescens) co-existing in natural coppice stands in NE Greece, in response to seasonal drought stress. Measurements were conducted between June and September 2016, every 15–20 days until leaf falling. The parameters studied were predawn leaf water potential and fast chlorophyll fluorescence induction curves (OJIP test), chlorophyll content, and relative water content. Meteorological data from the area were also collected. Photosynthetic parameters such as performance indices (PI_abs and PI_tot) reacted to summer drought conditions, with Q. frainetto showing the lowest values. The discrepancy between species increased with duration of drought period. Q. frainetto revealed the lowest predawn water potential values. The results indicate that Q. frainetto is less suitable for future forestry applications in the studied climate/elevation zone than Q. pubescens and Q. ilex.     

Comparison of sap flow, cavitation and water status of Quercus petraea and Quercus cerris trees with special reference to computer tomography

Concurrent measurements of sap velocity (heat pulse) and ultrasound acoustic emission were performed on the trunks of mature Turkey oak (Quercus cerris) and sessile oak (Quercus petraea) trees. Plant water status was assessed by measuring leaf water potential, leaf conductance and transpiration. Wood density was estimated non-destructively on the trunk section of the plants by mobile computer tomography, which measures the attenuation of a collimated beam of radiation traversing the trunk in several directions, as the device rotates around the tree. Absorption is proportional to the density of the wood. As wood density is strictly correlated to water content, this non-invasive method allows the water content in the trunk section to be evaluated as well as mapped. Leaf water potential declined each morning until a minimum was reached at midday and recovered in the afternoon, lagging behind changes in transpiration rate. Good correspondence was found between the patterns of sap velocity and cavitation rate. A close correlation was demonstrated between wood density, water content and sap velocity. Sap now was always higher in Turkey oak than in sessile oak. Trunk signatures by computer tomography appeared to differentiate the two oak species, with the Turkey oak stem clearly more hydrated than the sessile oak; water storage reservoirs could play an important role in tree survival during extended periods of low soil water availability and in the relative distribution of tree species, especially in the context of global climate change. Late-wood conducting elements of oak species seem to play a significant role in water transport. The mobile computer tomograph was confirmed as a peerless tool for investigating stem water relations. Diurnal variations in the measured parameters under natural drought conditions and the differences between the two oak species are discussed.     

Size-dependent responses to summer drought in Scots pine, Norway spruce and common oak

In this study, we provide a detailed analysis of tree growth and water status in relation to climate of three major species of forest trees in lower regions of Bavaria, Southern Germany: Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), Norway spruce (Picea abies) and common oak (Quercus robur). Tree-ring chronologies and latewood δ¹³C were used to derive measures for drought reaction across trees of different dimensions: growth reduction associated with drought years, long-term growth/climate relations and stomatal control on photosynthesis. For Scots pine, growth/climate relations indicated a stronger limitation of radial growth by high summer temperatures and low summer precipitation in smaller trees in contrast to larger trees. This is corroborated by a stronger stomatal control on photosynthesis for smaller pine trees under average conditions. In dry years, however, larger pine trees exhibited stronger growth reductions. For Norway spruce, a significantly stronger correlation of tree-ring width with summer temperatures and summer precipitation was found for larger trees. Additionally, for Norway spruce there is evidence for a change in competition mode from size-asymmetric competition under conditions with sufficient soil water supply to a more size-symmetric competition under dry conditions. Smaller oak trees showed a weaker stomatal control on photosynthesis under both dry and average conditions, which is also reflected by a significantly faster recovery of tree-ring growth after extreme drought events in smaller oak trees. The observed patterns are discussed in the context of the limitation-caused matter partitioning hypothesis and possible species-specific ontogenetic modifications.     

Recent climate hiatus revealed dual control by temperature and drought on the stem growth of Mediterranean Quercus ilex

A better understanding of stem growth phenology and its climate drivers would improve projections of the impact of climate change on forest productivity. Under a Mediterranean climate, tree growth is primarily limited by soil water availability during summer, but cold temperatures in winter also prevent tree growth in evergreen forests. In the widespread Mediterranean evergreen tree species Quercus ilex, the duration of stem growth has been shown to predict annual stem increment, and to be limited by winter temperatures on the one hand, and by the summer drought onset on the other hand. We tested how these climatic controls of Q. ilex growth varied with recent climate change by correlating a 40‐year tree ring record and a 30‐year annual diameter inventory against winter temperature, spring precipitation, and simulated growth duration. Our results showed that growth duration was the best predictor of annual tree growth. We predicted that recent climate changes have resulted in earlier growth onset (?10 days) due to winter warming and earlier growth cessation (?26 days) due to earlier drought onset. These climatic trends partly offset one another, as we observed no significant trend of change in tree growth between 1968 and 2008. A moving‐window correlation analysis revealed that in the past, Q. ilex growth was only correlated with water availability, but that since the 2000s, growth suddenly became correlated with winter temperature in addition to spring drought. This change in the climate–growth correlations matches the start of the recent atmospheric warming pause also known as the ‘climate hiatus’. The duration of growth of Q. ilex is thus shortened because winter warming has stopped compensating for increasing drought in the last decade. Decoupled trends in precipitation and temperature, a neglected aspect of climate change, might reduce forest productivity through phenological constraints and have more consequences than climate warming alone.