Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

Enhanced release of CO₂ to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO₂ levels and accelerated global warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single‐pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 Gt C by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 Gt C decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.     

Seagrass sediments reveal the long‐term deterioration of an estuarine ecosystem

The study of a Posidonia australis sediment archive has provided a record of ecosystem dynamics and processes over the last 600 years in Oyster Harbour (SW Australia). Ecosystem shifts are a widespread phenomenon in coastal areas, and this study identifies baseline conditions and the time‐course of ecological change (cycles, trends, resilience and thresholds of ecosystem change) under environmental stress in seagrass‐dominated ecosystem. The shifts in the concentrations of chemical elements, carbonates, sediments <0.125 mm and stable carbon isotope signatures (δ¹³C) of the organic matter were detected between 1850s and 1920s, whereas the shift detected in P concentration occurred several decades later (1960s). The first degradation phase (1850s–1950s) follows the onset of European settlement in Australia and was characterized by a strong increase in sediment accumulation rates and fine‐grained particles, driven primarily by enhanced run‐off due to land clearance and agriculture in the catchment. About 80% of total seagrass area at Oyster Harbour was lost during the second phase of environmental degradation (1960s until present). The sharp increase in P concentration and the increasing contribution of algae and terrestrial inputs into the sedimentary organic matter pool around 1960s provides compelling evidence of the documented eutrophication of the estuary and the subsequent loss of seagrass meadows. The results presented demonstrate the power of seagrass sedimentary archives to reconstruct the trajectories of anthropogenic pressures on estuarine ecosystem and the associated regime shifts, which can be used to improve the capacity of scientists and environmental managers to understand, predict and better manage ecological change in these ecosystems.     

Relative sea‐level change regulates organic carbon accumulation in coastal habitats

Because coastal habitats store large amounts of organic carbon (C_org), the conservation and restoration of these habitats are considered to be important measures for mitigating global climate change. Although future sea‐level rise is predicted to change the characteristics of these habitats, its impact on their rate of C_org sequestration is highly uncertain. Here we used historical depositional records to show that relative sea‐level (RSL) changes regulated C_org accumulation rates in boreal contiguous seagrass–saltmarsh habitats. Age–depth modeling and geological and biogeochemical approaches indicated that C_org accumulation rates varied as a function of changes in depositional environments and habitat relocations. In particular, C_org accumulation rates were enhanced in subtidal seagrass meadows during times of RSL rise, which were caused by postseismic land subsidence and climate change. Our findings identify historical analogs for the future impact of RSL rise driven by global climate change on rates of C_org sequestration in coastal habitats.     

Total ecosystem carbon stocks at the marine‐terrestrial interface: Blue carbon of the Pacific Northwest Coast,United States

The coastal ecosystems of temperate North America provide a variety of ecosystem services including high rates of carbon sequestration. Yet, little data exist for the carbon stocks of major tidal wetland types in the Pacific Northwest, United States. We quantified the total ecosystem carbon stocks (TECS) in seagrass, emergent marshes, and forested tidal wetlands, occurring along increasing elevation and decreasing salinity gradients. The TECS included the total aboveground carbon stocks and the entire soil profile (to as deep as 3 m). TECS significantly increased along the elevation and salinity gradients: 217 ± 60 Mg C/ha for seagrass (low elevation/high salinity), 417 ± 70 Mg C/ha for low marsh, 551 ± 47 Mg C/ha for high marsh, and 1,064 ± 38 Mg C/ha for tidal forest (high elevation/low salinity). Soil carbon stocks accounted for >98% of TECS in the seagrass and marsh communities and 78% in the tidal forest. Soils in the 0–100 cm portion of the profile accounted for only 48%–53% of the TECS in seagrasses and marshes and 34% of the TECS in tidal forests. Thus, the commonly applied limit defining TECS to a 100 cm depth would greatly underestimate both carbon stocks and potential greenhouse gas emissions from land‐use conversion. The large carbon stocks coupled with other ecosystem services suggest value in the conservation and restoration of temperate zone tidal wetlands through climate change mitigation strategies. However, the findings suggest that long‐term sea‐level rise effects such as tidal inundation and increased porewater salinity will likely decrease ecosystem carbon stocks in the absence of upslope wetland migration buffer zones.     

Stocks and losses of soil organic carbon from Chinese vegetated coastal habitats

Global vegetated coastal habitats (VCHs) represent a large sink for organic carbon (OC) stored within their soils. The regional patterns and causes of spatial variation, however, remain uncertain. The sparsity and regional bias of studies on soil OC stocks from Chinese VCHs have limited the reliable estimation of their capacity as regional and global OC sinks. Here, we use field and published data from 262 sampled soil cores and 181 surface soils to report estimates of soil OC stocks, burial rates and losses of VCHs in China. We find that Chinese mangrove, salt marsh and seagrass habitats have relatively low OC stocks, storing 6.3 ± 0.6, 7.5 ± 0.6, and 1.6 ± 0.6 Tg C (±95% confidence interval) in the top meter of the soil profile with burial rates of 44 ± 17, 159 ± 57, and 6 ± 45 Gg C/year, respectively. The variability in the soil OC stocks is linked to biogeographic factors but is mostly impacted by sedimentary processes and anthropic activities. All habitats have experienced significant losses, resulting in estimated emissions of 94.2–395.4 Tg CO₂e (carbon dioxide equivalent) over the past 70 years. Reversing this trend through conservation and restoration measures has, therefore, great potential in contributing to the mitigation of climate change while providing additional benefits. This assessment, on a national scale from highly sedimentary environments under intensive anthropogenic pressures, provides important insights into blue carbon sink mechanism and sequestration capacities, thus contributing to the synchronous progression of global blue carbon management.     

Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity – evidence since the middle of the 20th century

Changes to forest production drivers (light, water, temperature, and site nutrient) over the last 55 years have been documented in peer‐reviewed literature. The main objective of this paper is to review documented evidence of the impacts of climate change trends on forest productivity since the middle of the 20th century. We first present a concise overview of the climate controls of forest production, provide evidence of how the main controls have changed in the last 55 years, followed by a core section outlining our findings of observed and documented impacts on forest productivity and a brief discussion of the complications of interpreting trends in net primary production (NPP). At finer spatial scales, a trend is difficult to decipher, but globally, based on both satellite and ground‐based data, climatic changes seemed to have a generally positive impact on forest productivity when water was not limiting. Of the 49 papers reporting forest production levels we reviewed, 37 showed a positive growth trend, five a negative trend, three reported both a positive and a negative trend for different time periods, one reported a positive and no trend for different geographic areas, and two reported no trend. Forests occupy ≈52% of the Earth's land surface and tend to occupy more temperature and radiation‐limited environments. Less than 7% of forests are in strongly water‐limited systems. The combined and interacting effects of temperature, radiation, and precipitation changes with the positive effect of CO₂, the negative effects of O₃ and other pollutants, and the presently positive effects of N will not be elucidated with experimental manipulation of one or a few factors at a time. Assessments of the greening of the biosphere depend on both accurate measurements of rates (net ecosystem exchange, NPP), how much is stored at the ecosystem level (net ecosystem production) and quantification of disturbances rates on final net biome production.     

Large losses of soil C and N from soil profiles under pasture in New Zealand during the past 20 years

The conversion of two‐thirds of New Zealand's native forests and grasslands to agriculture has followed trends in other developed nations, except that pastoral grazing rather than cropping dominates agriculture. The initial conversion of land to pasture decreased soil acidity and elevated N and P stocks, but caused little change in soil organic C stocks. However, less is known about C and nutrient stock changes during the last two decades under long‐term pastoral management. We resampled 31 whole soil profiles in pastures spanning seven soil orders with a latitudinal range of 36–46°S, which had originally been sampled 17–30 years ago. We measured total C, total N, and bulk density for each horizon (generally to 1 m) and also reanalyzed archived soil samples of the same horizons for C and N. On average, profiles had lost significant amounts of C (− 2.1 kg C m⁻²) and N (− 0.18 kg N m⁻²) since initial sampling. Assuming a continuous linear decline in organic matter between sampling dates, significant losses averaged 106 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ (P=0.01) and 9.1 g N m⁻² yr⁻¹ (P=0.002). Removal of C through leaching and erosion appears too small to explain these losses, suggesting losses from respiration exceed the inputs of photosynthate in the soil profile. These results emphasize that resampling soil profiles provide a robust method for detecting soil C changes, and add credence to the suggestion that soil C losses may be occurring in some temperate soil profiles. Further work is required to determine whether these losses are continuing and how losses might be extrapolated across landscapes to determine the implications for New Zealand's national CO₂ emissions and the sustainability of the implied rates of soil N loss.     

A pan‐Arctic synthesis of CH4 and CO2 production from anoxic soil incubations

Permafrost thaw can alter the soil environment through changes in soil moisture, frequently resulting in soil saturation, a shift to anaerobic decomposition, and changes in the plant community. These changes, along with thawing of previously frozen organic material, can alter the form and magnitude of greenhouse gas production from permafrost ecosystems. We synthesized existing methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) production measurements from anaerobic incubations of boreal and tundra soils from the geographic permafrost region to evaluate large‐scale controls of anaerobic CO₂ and CH₄ production and compare the relative importance of landscape‐level factors (e.g., vegetation type and landscape position), soil properties (e.g., pH, depth, and soil type), and soil environmental conditions (e.g., temperature and relative water table position). We found fivefold higher maximum CH₄ production per gram soil carbon from organic soils than mineral soils. Maximum CH₄ production from soils in the active layer (ground that thaws and refreezes annually) was nearly four times that of permafrost per gram soil carbon, and CH₄ production per gram soil carbon was two times greater from sites without permafrost than sites with permafrost. Maximum CH₄ and median anaerobic CO₂ production decreased with depth, while CO₂:CH₄ production increased with depth. Maximum CH₄ production was highest in soils with herbaceous vegetation and soils that were either consistently or periodically inundated. This synthesis identifies the need to consider biome, landscape position, and vascular/moss vegetation types when modeling CH₄ production in permafrost ecosystems and suggests the need for longer‐term anaerobic incubations to fully capture CH₄ dynamics. Our results demonstrate that as climate warms in arctic and boreal regions, rates of anaerobic CO₂ and CH₄ production will increase, not only as a result of increased temperature, but also from shifts in vegetation and increased ground saturation that will accompany permafrost thaw.     

Animal manure application and soil organic carbon stocks: a meta‐analysis

The impact of animal manure application on soil organic carbon (SOC) stock changes is of interest for both agronomic and environmental purposes. There is a specific need to quantify SOC change for use in national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission inventories. We quantified the response of SOC stocks to manure application from a large worldwide pool of individual studies and determined the impact of explanatory factors such as climate, soil properties, land use and manure characteristics. Our study is based on a meta‐analysis of 42 research articles totaling 49 sites and 130 observations in the world. A dominant effect of cumulative manure‐C input on SOC response was observed as this factor explained at least 53% of the variability in SOC stock differences compared to mineral fertilized or unfertilized reference treatments. However, the effects of other determining factors were not evident from our data set. From the linear regression relating cumulative C inputs and SOC stock difference, a global manure‐C retention coefficient of 12% ± 4 (95% Confidence Interval, CI) could be estimated for an average study duration of 18 years. Following an approach comparable to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we estimated a relative SOC change factor of 1.26 ± 0.14 (95% CI) which was also related to cumulative manure‐C input. Our results offer some scope for the refinement of manure retention coefficients used in crop management guidelines and for the improvement of SOC change factors for national GHG inventories by taking into account manure‐C input. Finally, this study emphasizes the need to further document the long‐term impact of manure characteristics such as animal species, especially pig and poultry, and manure management systems, in particular liquid vs. solid storage.     

Response of soil carbon dioxide fluxes,soil organic carbon and microbial biomass carbon to biochar amendment: a meta‐analysis

Biochar as a carbon‐rich coproduct of pyrolyzing biomass, its amendment has been advocated as a potential strategy to soil carbon (C) sequestration. Updated data derived from 50 papers with 395 paired observations were reviewed using meta‐analysis procedures to examine responses of soil carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes, soil organic C (SOC), and soil microbial biomass C (MBC) contents to biochar amendment. When averaged across all studies, biochar amendment had no significant effect on soil CO₂ fluxes, but it significantly enhanced SOC content by 40% and MBC content by 18%. A positive response of soil CO₂ fluxes to biochar amendment was found in rice paddies, laboratory incubation studies, soils without vegetation, and unfertilized soils. Biochar amendment significantly increased soil MBC content in field studies, N‐fertilized soils, and soils with vegetation. Enhancement of SOC content following biochar amendment was the greatest in rice paddies among different land‐use types. Responses of soil CO₂ fluxes and MBC to biochar amendment varied with soil texture and pH. The use of biochar in combination with synthetic N fertilizer and waste compost fertilizer led to the greatest increases in soil CO₂ fluxes and MBC content, respectively. Both soil CO₂ fluxes and MBC responses to biochar amendment decreased with biochar application rate, pyrolysis temperature, or C/N ratio of biochar, while each increased SOC content enhancement. Among different biochar feedstock sources, positive responses of soil CO₂ fluxes and MBC were the highest for manure and crop residue feedstock sources, respectively. Soil CO₂ flux responses to biochar amendment decreased with pH of biochar, while biochars with pH of 8.1–9.0 had the greatest enhancement of SOC and MBC contents. Therefore, soil properties, land‐use type, agricultural practice, and biochar characteristics should be taken into account to assess the practical potential of biochar for mitigating climate change.     

Soil carbon sequestration due to post‐Soviet cropland abandonment: estimates from a large‐scale soil organic carbon field inventory

The break‐up of the Soviet Union in 1991 triggered cropland abandonment on a continental scale, which in turn led to carbon accumulation on abandoned land across Eurasia. Previous studies have estimated carbon accumulation rates across Russia based on large‐scale modelling. Studies that assess carbon sequestration on abandoned land based on robust field sampling are rare. We investigated soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks using a randomized sampling design along a climatic gradient from forest steppe to Sub‐Taiga in Western Siberia (Tyumen Province). In total, SOC contents were sampled on 470 plots across different soil and land‐use types. The effect of land use on changes in SOC stock was evaluated, and carbon sequestration rates were calculated for different age stages of abandoned cropland. While land‐use type had an effect on carbon accumulation in the topsoil (0–5 cm), no independent land‐use effects were found for deeper SOC stocks. Topsoil carbon stocks of grasslands and forests were significantly higher than those of soils managed for crops and under abandoned cropland. SOC increased significantly with time since abandonment. The average carbon sequestration rate for soils of abandoned cropland was 0.66 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 (1–20 years old, 0–5 cm soil depth), which is at the lower end of published estimates for Russia and Siberia. There was a tendency towards SOC saturation on abandoned land as sequestration rates were much higher for recently abandoned (1–10 years old, 1.04 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1) compared to earlier abandoned crop fields (11–20 years old, 0.26 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1). Our study confirms the global significance of abandoned cropland in Russia for carbon sequestration. Our findings also suggest that robust regional surveys based on a large number of samples advance model‐based continent‐wide SOC prediction.     

Lower‐than‐expected CH4 emissions from rice paddies with rising CO2 concentrations

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ (eCO₂) generally increases carbon input in rice paddy soils and stimulates the growth of methane‐producing microorganisms. Therefore, eCO₂ is widely expected to increase methane (CH₄) emissions from rice agriculture, a major source of anthropogenic CH₄. Agricultural practices strongly affect CH₄ emissions from rice paddies as well, but whether these practices modulate effects of eCO₂ is unclear. Here we show, by combining a series of experiments and meta‐analyses, that whereas eCO₂ strongly increased CH₄ emissions from paddies without straw incorporation, it tended to reduce CH₄ emissions from paddy soils with straw incorporation. Our experiments also identified the microbial processes underlying these results: eCO₂ increased methane‐consuming microorganisms more strongly in soils with straw incorporation than in soils without straw, with the opposite pattern for methane‐producing microorganisms. Accounting for the interaction between CO₂ and straw management, we estimate that eCO₂ increases global CH₄ emissions from rice paddies by 3.7%, an order of magnitude lower than previous estimates. Our results suggest that the effect of eCO₂ on CH₄ emissions from rice paddies is smaller than previously thought and underline the need for judicious agricultural management to curb future CH₄ emissions.     

Elevated CO2 and temperature increase soil C losses from a soybean–maize ecosystem

Warming temperatures and increasing CO₂ are likely to have large effects on the amount of carbon stored in soil, but predictions of these effects are poorly constrained. We elevated temperature (canopy: +2.8 °C; soil growing season: +1.8 °C; soil fallow: +2.3 °C) for 3 years within the 9th–11th years of an elevated CO₂ (+200 ppm) experiment on a maize–soybean agroecosystem, measured respiration by roots and soil microbes, and then used a process‐based ecosystem model (DayCent) to simulate the decadal effects of warming and CO₂ enrichment on soil C. Both heating and elevated CO₂ increased respiration from soil microbes by ~20%, but heating reduced respiration from roots and rhizosphere by ~25%. The effects were additive, with no heat × CO₂ interactions. Particulate organic matter and total soil C declined over time in all treatments and were lower in elevated CO₂ plots than in ambient plots, but did not differ between heat treatments. We speculate that these declines indicate a priming effect, with increased C inputs under elevated CO₂ fueling a loss of old soil carbon. Model simulations of heated plots agreed with our observations and predicted loss of ~15% of soil organic C after 100 years of heating, but simulations of elevated CO₂ failed to predict the observed C losses and instead predicted a ~4% gain in soil organic C under any heating conditions. Despite model uncertainty, our empirical results suggest that combined, elevated CO₂ and temperature will lead to long‐term declines in the amount of carbon stored in agricultural soils.     

Last‐century changes of alpine grassland water‐use efficiency: a reconstruction through carbon isotope analysis of a time‐series of Capra ibex horns

The ecophysiological response of an alpine grassland to recent climate change and increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration was investigated with a new strategy to go back in time: using a time‐series of Capra ibex horns as archives of the alpine grasslands' carbon isotope discrimination (¹³Δ). From the collection of the Natural History Museum of Bern, horns of 24 males from the population of the Augstmatthorn–Brienzer Rothorn mountains, Switzerland, were sampled covering the period from 1938 to 2006. Samples were taken from the beginning of each year‐ring of the horns, representing the beginning of the horn growth period, the spring. The horns' carbon ¹³C content (Δ¹³C) declined together with that of atmospheric CO₂ over the 69‐year period, but ¹³Δ increased slightly (+0.4‰), though significantly (P<0.05), over the observation period. Estimated intercellular CO₂ concentration increased (+56 μmol mol^?1) less than the atmospheric CO₂ concentration (+81 μmol mol^?1), so that intrinsic water‐use efficiency increased by 17.8% during the 69‐year period. However, the atmospheric evaporative demand at the site increased by approximately 0.1 kPa between 1955 and 2006, thus counteracting the improvement of intrinsic water‐use efficiency. As a result, instantaneous water‐use efficiency did not change. The observed changes in intrinsic water‐use efficiency were in the same range as those of trees (as reported by others), indicating that leaf‐level control of water‐use efficiency of grassland and forests followed the same principles. This is the first reconstruction of the water‐use efficiency response of a natural grassland ecosystem to last century CO₂ and climatic changes. The results indicate that the alpine grassland community has responded to climate change by improving the physiological control of carbon gain to water loss, following the increases in atmospheric CO₂ and evaporative demand. But, effective leaf‐level water‐use efficiency has remained unchanged.     

Trade‐offs between carbon stocks and biodiversity in European temperate forests

Policies to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss often assume that protecting carbon‐rich forests provides co‐benefits in terms of biodiversity, due to the spatial congruence of carbon stocks and biodiversity at biogeographic scales. However, it remains unclear whether this holds at the scales relevant for management, and particularly large knowledge gaps exist for temperate forests and for taxa other than trees. We built a comprehensive dataset of Central European temperate forest structure and multi‐taxonomic diversity (beetles, birds, bryophytes, fungi, lichens, and plants) across 352 plots. We used Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) to assess the relationship between above‐ground live carbon stocks and (a) taxon‐specific richness, (b) a unified multidiversity index. We used Threshold Indicator Taxa ANalysis to explore individual species’ responses to changing above‐ground carbon stocks and to detect change‐points in species composition along the carbon‐stock gradient. Our results reveal an overall weak and highly variable relationship between richness and carbon stock at the stand scale, both for individual taxonomic groups and for multidiversity. Similarly, the proportion of win‐win and trade‐off species (i.e., species favored or disadvantaged by increasing carbon stock, respectively) varied substantially across taxa. Win‐win species gradually replaced trade‐off species with increasing carbon, without clear thresholds along the above‐ground carbon gradient, suggesting that community‐level surrogates (e.g., richness) might fail to detect critical changes in biodiversity. Collectively, our analyses highlight that leveraging co‐benefits between carbon and biodiversity in temperate forest may require stand‐scale management that prioritizes either biodiversity or carbon in order to maximize co‐benefits at broader scales. Importantly, this contrasts with tropical forests, where climate and biodiversity objectives can be integrated at the stand scale, thus highlighting the need for context‐specificity when managing for multiple objectives. Accounting for critical change‐points of target taxa can help to deal with this specificity, by defining a safe operating space to manipulate carbon while avoiding biodiversity losses.     

Simulating effects of changing climate and CO2 emissions on soil carbon pools at the Hubbard Brook experimental forest

Carbon (C) sequestration in forest biomass and soils may help decrease regional C footprints and mitigate future climate change. The efficacy of these practices must be verified by monitoring and by approved calculation methods (i.e., models) to be credible in C markets. Two widely used soil organic matter models – CENTURY and RothC – were used to project changes in SOC pools after clear‐cutting disturbance, as well as under a range of future climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) scenarios. Data from the temperate, predominantly deciduous Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) in New Hampshire, USA, were used to parameterize and validate the models. Clear‐cutting simulations demonstrated that both models can effectively simulate soil C dynamics in the northern hardwood forest when adequately parameterized. The minimum postharvest SOC predicted by RothC occurred in postharvest year 14 and was within 1.5% of the observed minimum, which occurred in year 8. CENTURY predicted the postharvest minimum SOC to occur in year 45, at a value 6.9% greater than the observed minimum; the slow response of both models to disturbance suggests that they may overestimate the time required to reach new steady‐state conditions. Four climate change scenarios were used to simulate future changes in SOC pools. Climate‐change simulations predicted increases in SOC by as much as 7% at the end of this century, partially offsetting future CO₂ emissions. This sequestration was the product of enhanced forest productivity, and associated litter input to the soil, due to increased temperature, precipitation and CO₂. The simulations also suggested that considerable losses of SOC (8–30%) could occur if forest vegetation at HBEF does not respond to changes in climate and CO₂ levels. Therefore, the source/sink behavior of temperate forest soils likely depends on the degree to which forest growth is stimulated by new climate and CO₂ conditions.     

Accumulation of soil carbon under elevated CO2 unaffected by warming and drought

Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change may substantially alter soil carbon (C) dynamics, which in turn may impact future climate through feedback cycles. However, only very few field experiments worldwide have combined elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) with both warming and changes in precipitation in order to study the potential combined effects of changes in these fundamental drivers of C cycling in ecosystems. We exposed a temperate heath/grassland to eCO₂, warming, and drought, in all combinations for 8 years. At the end of the study, soil C stocks were on average 0.927 kg C/m² higher across all treatment combinations with eCO₂ compared to ambient CO₂ treatments (equal to an increase of 0.120 ± 0.043 kg C m^?2 year^?1), and showed no sign of slowed accumulation over time. However, if observed pretreatment differences in soil C are taken into account, the annual rate of increase caused by eCO₂ may be as high as 0.177 ± 0.070 kg C m^?2 year^?1. Furthermore, the response to eCO₂ was not affected by simultaneous exposure to warming and drought. The robust increase in soil C under eCO₂ observed here, even when combined with other climate change factors, suggests that there is continued and strong potential for enhanced soil carbon sequestration in some ecosystems to mitigate increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations under future climate conditions. The feedback between land C and climate remains one of the largest sources of uncertainty in future climate projections, yet experimental data under simulated future climate, and especially including combined changes, are still scarce. Globally coordinated and distributed experiments with long‐term measurements of changes in soil C in response to the three major climate change‐related global changes, eCO₂, warming, and changes in precipitation patterns, are, therefore, urgently needed.     

Land‐use conversion and changing soil carbon stocks in China's ‘Grain‐for‐Green’ Program: a synthesis

The establishment of either forest or grassland on degraded cropland has been proposed as an effective method for climate change mitigation because these land use types can increase soil carbon (C) stocks. This paper synthesized 135 recent publications (844 observations at 181 sites) focused on the conversion from cropland to grassland, shrubland or forest in China, better known as the ‘Grain‐for‐Green’ Program to determine which factors were driving changes to soil organic carbon (SOC). The results strongly indicate a positive impact of cropland conversion on soil C stocks. The temporal pattern for soil C stock changes in the 0–100 cm soil layer showed an initial decrease in soil C during the early stage (<5 years), and then an increase to net C gains (>5 years) coincident with vegetation restoration. The rates of soil C change were higher in the surface profile (0–20 cm) than in deeper soil (20–100 cm). Cropland converted to forest (arbor) had the additional benefit of a slower but more persistent C sequestration capacity than shrubland or grassland. Tree species played a significant role in determining the rate of change in soil C stocks (conifer < broadleaf, evergreen < deciduous forests). Restoration age was the main factor, not temperature and precipitation, affecting soil C stock change after cropland conversion with higher initial soil C stock sites having a negative effect on soil C accumulation. Soil C sequestration significantly increased with restoration age over the long‐term, and therefore, the large scale of land‐use change under the ‘Grain‐for‐Green’ Program will significantly increase China's C stocks.     

Soil carbon stocks,deforestation and land‐cover changes in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot (India)

Habitat loss and soil organic carbon (SOC) stock variations linked to land‐cover change were estimated over two decades in the most densely populated biodiversity hotspot in the world, in order to assess the possible influence of conservation practices on the protection of SOC. For a study area of 88 484 km², 70% of which lie inside the Western Ghats Biodiversity Hotspot (WGBH), land‐cover maps for two dates (1977, 1999) were built from various data sources including remote sensing images and ecological forest maps. SOC stocks were calculated from climatic parameters, altitude, physiography, rock type, soil type and land‐cover, with a modelling approach used in predictive learning and based on Multiple Additive Regression Tree. The model was trained on 361 soil profiles data, and applied to estimate SOC stocks from predictor variables using a Geographical Information System (GIS). Comparison of 1977 and 1999 land‐cover maps showed 628 km² of dense forests habitat loss (6%), corresponding to an annual deforestation rate of 0.44%. This was found consistent with other studies carried out in other parts of the WGBH, but not with FAO figures showing an increase in forest area. This could be explained by the different forest definitions used, based on ecological classification in the former, and on percentage tree cover in the latter. Unexpectedly, our results showed that despite ongoing deforestation, overall SOC stock was maintained (～0.43 Pg). But a closer examination of spatial differences showed that soil carbon losses in deforested areas were compensated by sequestration elsewhere, mainly in recent plantations and newly irrigated croplands. This suggests that more carbon sequestration in soils could be achieved in the future through appropriate wasteland management. It is also expected that increasing concerns about biodiversity loss will favour more conservation and reinforce the already prevailing protective measures, thus further maintaining C stocks.