Intertidal community responses to field‐based experimental warming

As the climate warms, there is little doubt that ecosystems of the future will look different from those we see today. However, community responses to warming in the field are poorly understood. We examined the effects of field‐based warming on intertidal communities in the Salish Sea, which is a regional thermal ‘hot spot’ and therefore a model system for studying thermally stressed communities. We manipulated temperature at three tidal heights by deploying black‐ and white‐bordered settlement plates. Black plates increased in situ substratum temperature by an average of 2.6°C (maximum temperature, 40.9°C). Barnacles fared poorly on black plates in all zones. When overall thermal stress was highest (summer in the high intertidal zone) herbivores were absent. In lower tidal zones, herbivores were abundant on white plates but were scarce on black plates. The total percent cover of algae was unaffected by the temperature treatment, despite the fact that macroalgae were expected to be the least thermally tolerant functional group. However, we did find that ephemeral green algae exhibited a delay in phenology on black plates. We also found that species richness declined and invertebrate assemblage structure was altered due to warming. Results from this year long experiment suggest that communities in thermally stressful habitats respond to warming via the interplay between species‐specific thermal responses and secondary adaptive strategies such as behavioral microhabitat selection. Declines in diversity and changes in the invertebrate assemblage were due to the decline of local thermally‐stressed species and the lack of replacement by warm‐adapted species. Given the low variation in the species pool along the northeast Pacific coastline, the arrival of warm‐adapted species to the Salish Sea may not occur over relevant time scales, leaving local communities depauperate.     

51 Characterization of the northwestern gulf of Mexico macroalgae

One of the most commonly predicted effects of global ocean warming on marine communities is a poleward shift in the distribution of species with an associated replacement of cold‐water species by warm‐water species. Such predictions are imprecise and based largely on broad correlations in uncontrolled studies that examine changes in species composition and abundance relative to seawater temperature. Before‐After‐Control‐Impact (BACI) analyses of the effects of a large thermal discharge shows that an induced 3.4 deg. C rise in seawater temperature over 10 years along 2 km of rocky coastline resulted in significant community‐wide changes in 150 species of algae and invertebrates relative to controls. Contrary to predictions from biogeographic models, there was no trend towards warm‐water species with southern geographic affinities replacing cold‐species with northern affinities. Instead, communities were greatly altered in apparently cascading responses to changes in abundance of several habitat‐forming taxa, particularly subtidal kelps (e.g. Pterygophora californica) and intertidal foliose red algae (e.g. Mazzaella flaccida). Many temperature sensitive algae decreased greatly in abundance, whereas many invertebrate grazers increased. The results indicate that the responses of temperate reef communities to ocean warming can be strongly coupled to direct effects on habitat‐forming taxa and indirect effects operating through ecological interactions. Given our understanding of temperate reef ecology and its local variability, the results also suggest that accurate predictions of the effects of global ocean warming will be difficult to make.     

Species’ thermal preferences affect forest bird communities along landscape and local scale habitat gradients

The spatial distributions of species, and the resulting composition of local communities, are shaped by a complex interplay between species’ climatic and habitat preferences. We investigated this interaction by analyzing how the climatic niches of bird species within given communities (measured as a community thermal index, CTI) are related to vegetation structure. Using 3129 bird communities from the French Breeding Bird Survey and an information theoretic multimodel inference framework, we assessed patterns of CTI variation along landscape scale gradients of forest cover and configuration. We then tested whether the CTI varies along local scale gradients of forest structure and composition using a detailed data set of 659 communities from six forests located in northwestern France. At landscape scale, CTI values decreased with increasing forest cover, indicating that bird communities were increasingly dominated by cold‐dwelling species. This tendency was strongest at low latitudes and in landscapes dominated by unfragmented forest. At local scale, CTI values were higher in mature deciduous stands than in conifer or early stage deciduous stands, and they decreased consistently with distance from the edge of forest. These trends underpin the assertion that species’ habitat use along forest gradients is linked with their climatic niche, although it remains unclear to what extent it is a direct consequence of microclimatic variation among habitats, or a reflection of macroscale correlations between species’ thermal preferences and their habitat choice. Moreover, our results highlight the need to address issues of scale in determining how habitat and climate interact to drive the spatial distribution of species. This will be a crucial step towards accurate predictions of changes in the composition and dynamics of bird communities under global warming.     

Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities

Much of the recent changes in North American climate have occurred during the winter months, and as result, overwintering birds represent important sentinels of anthropogenic climate change. While there is mounting evidence that bird populations are responding to a warming climate (e.g., poleward shifts) questions remain as to whether these species‐specific responses are resulting in community‐wide changes. Here, we test the hypothesis that a changing winter climate should favor the formation of winter bird communities dominated by warm‐adapted species. To do this, we quantified changes in community composition using a functional index – the Community Temperature Index (CTI) – which measures the balance between low‐ and high‐temperature dwelling species in a community. Using data from Project FeederWatch, an international citizen science program, we quantified spatiotemporal changes in winter bird communities (n = 38 bird species) across eastern North America and tested the influence of changes in winter minimum temperature over a 22‐year period. We implemented a jackknife analysis to identify those species most influential in driving changes at the community level and the population dynamics (e.g., extinction or colonization) responsible for these community changes. Since 1990, we found that the winter bird community structure has changed with communities increasingly composed of warm‐adapted species. This reshuffling of winter bird communities was strongest in southerly latitudes and driven primarily by local increases in abundance and regional patterns of colonization by southerly birds. CTI tracked patterns of changing winter temperature at different temporal scales ranging from 1 to 35 years. We conclude that a shifting winter climate has provided an opportunity for smaller, southerly distributed species to colonize new regions and promote the formation of unique winter bird assemblages throughout eastern North America.     

Co‐varying impacts of land use and non‐native brown trout on fish communities in small streams

相似文献   

Response of marine communities to local temperature changes

As global climate change and variability drive shifts in species’ distributions, ecological communities are being reorganized. One approach to understand community change in response to climate change has been to characterize communities by a collective thermal preference, or community temperature index (CTI), and then to compare changes in CTI with changes in temperature. However, important questions remain about whether and how responsive communities are to changes in their local thermal environments. We used CTI to analyze changes in 160 marine assemblages (fish and invertebrates) across the rapidly‐changing Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf Large Marine Ecosystem and calculated expected community change based on historical relationships between species presence and temperature from a separate training dataset. We then compared interannual and long‐term temperature changes with expected community responses and observed community responses over both temporal scales. For these marine communities, we found that community composition as well as composition changes through time could be explained by species associations with bottom temperature. Individual species had non‐linear responses to changes in temperature, and these nonlinearities scaled up to a nonlinear relationship between CTI and temperature. On average, CTI increased by 0.36°C (95% CI: 0.34–0.38°C) for every 1°C increase in bottom temperature, but the relationship between CTI and temperature also depended on community composition. In addition, communities responded more strongly to interannual variation than to long‐term trends in temperature. We recommend that future research into climate‐driven community change accounts for nonlinear responses and examines ecological responses across a range of temporal and geographical scales.     

Butterfly phenology in Mediterranean mountains using space‐for‐time substitution

Inferring species' responses to climate change in the absence of long‐term time series data is a challenge, but can be achieved by substituting space for time. For example, thermal elevational gradients represent suitable proxies to study phenological responses to warming. We used butterfly data from two Mediterranean mountain areas to test whether mean dates of appearance of communities and individual species show a delay with increasing altitude, and an accompanying shortening in the duration of flight periods. We found a 14‐day delay in the mean date of appearance per kilometer increase in altitude for butterfly communities overall, and an average 23‐day shift for 26 selected species, alongside average summer temperature lapse rates of 3°C per km. At higher elevations, there was a shortening of the flight period for the community of 3 days/km, with an 8.8‐day average decline per km for individual species. Rates of phenological delay differed significantly between the two mountain ranges, although this did not seem to result from the respective temperature lapse rates. These results suggest that climate warming could lead to advanced and lengthened flight periods for Mediterranean mountain butterfly communities. However, although multivoltine species showed the expected response of delayed and shortened flight periods at higher elevations, univoltine species showed more pronounced delays in terms of species appearance. Hence, while projections of overall community responses to climate change may benefit from space‐for‐time substitutions, understanding species‐specific responses to local features of habitat and climate may be needed to accurately predict the effects of climate change on phenology.     

Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non‐native species on community responses to climate change

Climate change, land‐use change and introductions of non‐native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm‐associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non‐native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm‐associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool‐associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non‐native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community‐level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non‐natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate‐driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.     

Experimental whole‐stream warming alters community size structure

How ecological communities respond to predicted increases in temperature will determine the extent to which Earth's biodiversity and ecosystem functioning can be maintained into a warmer future. Warming is predicted to alter the structure of natural communities, but robust tests of such predictions require appropriate large‐scale manipulations of intact, natural habitat that is open to dispersal processes via exchange with regional species pools. Here, we report results of a two‐year whole‐stream warming experiment that shifted invertebrate assemblage structure via unanticipated mechanisms, while still conforming to community‐level metabolic theory. While warming by 3.8 °C decreased invertebrate abundance in the experimental stream by 60% relative to a reference stream, total invertebrate biomass was unchanged. Associated shifts in invertebrate assemblage structure were driven by the arrival of new taxa and a higher proportion of large, warm‐adapted species (i.e., snails and predatory dipterans) relative to small‐bodied, cold‐adapted taxa (e.g., chironomids and oligochaetes). Experimental warming consequently shifted assemblage size spectra in ways that were unexpected, but consistent with thermal optima of taxa in the regional species pool. Higher temperatures increased community‐level energy demand, which was presumably satisfied by higher primary production after warming. Our experiment demonstrates how warming reassembles communities within the constraints of energy supply via regional exchange of species that differ in thermal physiological traits. Similar responses will likely mediate impacts of anthropogenic warming on biodiversity and ecosystem function across all ecological communities.     

Physical effects of habitat‐forming species override latitudinal trends in temperature

Latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients (LTG and ETG) play central roles in biogeographical theory, underpinning predictions of large‐scale patterns in organismal thermal stress, species' ranges and distributional responses to climate change. Yet an enormous fraction of Earth's taxa live exclusively in habitats where foundation species modify temperatures. We examine little‐explored implications of this widespread trend using a classic model system for understanding heat stresses – rocky intertidal shores. Through integrated field measurements and laboratory trials, we demonstrate that thermal buffering by centimetre‐thick mussel and seaweed beds eliminates differences in stress‐inducing high temperatures and associated mortality risk that would otherwise arise over 14° of latitude and ~ 1 m of shore elevation. These results reveal the extent to which physical effects of habitat‐formers can overwhelm broad‐scale thermal trends, suggesting a need to re‐evaluate climate change predictions for many species. Notably, inhabitant populations may exhibit deceptive resilience to warming until refuge‐forming taxa become imperiled.     

Predicting small‐mammal responses to climatic warming: autecology,geographic range,and the Holocene fossil record

Forecasting how species will respond to climatic change requires knowledge of past community dynamics. Here we use time‐series data from the small‐mammal fossil records of two caves in the Great Basin of the American West to evaluate how contrasting and variable local paleoclimates have shaped small‐mammal abundance dynamics over the last ～7500 years of climatic change. We then predict how species and communities will respond to future scenarios of increased warming and aridity coupled with continued spread of an invasive annual grass (Bromus tectorum). We find that most community‐level responses to climatic change occur in the mammalian abundance structure at both sites; the dominance of the community by individuals from species with a southern geographic affinity increases with climatic warming. This suggests that responses occurred in situ rather than by the immigration of new taxa over this time interval. Despite predictability at the community‐scale, species‐level relationships between abundance and climate are variable and are not necessarily explained by a species' geographic affinity. Species present at both sites, however, exhibit remarkably similar responses to climate at each site, indicating that species autecology (specifically dietary functional group) is important in determining response to climatic warming. Regression‐tree analyses show remarkable concordance between the two cave faunas and highlight the importance of a granivorous dietary strategy in this desert ecosystem. Under projections of increased temperature and decreased precipitation over the next 50 years, our results indicate that granivores should thrive as communities become more dominated by individuals with a southern geographic affinity. Granivores, however, are negatively impacted by the invasion of cheatgrass. The last century of anthropogenic impacts has thus placed granivores at a greater risk of extinction than predicted under climate‐only scenarios.     

Agriculture erases climate‐driven β‐diversity in Neotropical bird communities

Earth is experiencing multiple global changes that will, together, determine the fate of many species. Yet, how biological communities respond to concurrent stressors at local‐to‐regional scales remains largely unknown. In particular, understanding how local habitat conversion interacts with regional climate change to shape patterns in β‐diversity—differences among sites in their species compositions—is critical to forecast communities in the Anthropocene. Here, we study patterns in bird β‐diversity across land‐use and precipitation gradients in Costa Rica. We mapped forest cover, modeled regional precipitation, and collected data on bird community composition, vegetation structure, and tree diversity across 120 sites on 20 farms to answer three questions. First, do bird communities respond more strongly to changes in land use or climate in northwest Costa Rica? Second, does habitat conversion eliminate β‐diversity across climate gradients? Third, does regional climate control how communities respond to habitat conversion and, if so, how? After correcting for imperfect detection, we found that local land‐use determined community shifts along the climate gradient. In forests, bird communities were distinct between sites that differed in vegetation structure or precipitation. In agriculture, however, vegetation structure was more uniform, contributing to 7%–11% less bird turnover than in forests. In addition, bird responses to agriculture and climate were linked: agricultural communities across the precipitation gradient shared more species with dry than wet forest communities. These findings suggest that habitat conversion and anticipated climate drying will act together to exacerbate biotic homogenization.     

Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities

Community‐level climate change indicators have been proposed to appraise the impact of global warming on community composition. However, non‐climate factors may also critically influence species distribution and biological community assembly. The aim of this paper was to study how fire–vegetation dynamics can modify our ability to predict the impact of climate change on bird communities, as described through a widely‐used climate change indicator: the community thermal index (CTI). Potential changes in bird species assemblage were predicted using the spatially‐explicit species assemblage modelling framework – SESAM – that applies successive filters to constrained predictions of richness and composition obtained by stacking species distribution models that hierarchically integrate climate change and wildfire–vegetation dynamics. We forecasted future values of CTI between current conditions and 2050, across a wide range of fire–vegetation and climate change scenarios. Fire–vegetation dynamics were simulated for Catalonia (Mediterranean basin) using a process‐based model that reproduces the spatial interaction between wildfire, vegetation dynamics and wildfire management under two IPCC climate scenarios. Net increases in CTI caused by the concomitant impact of climate warming and an increasingly severe wildfire regime were predicted. However, the overall increase in the CTI could be partially counterbalanced by forest expansion via land abandonment and efficient wildfire suppression policies. CTI is thus strongly dependent on complex interactions between climate change and fire–vegetation dynamics. The potential impacts on bird communities may be underestimated if an overestimation of richness is predicted but not constrained. Our findings highlight the need to explicitly incorporate these interactions when using indicators to interpret and forecast climate change impact in dynamic ecosystems. In fire‐prone systems, wildfire management and land‐use policies can potentially offset or heighten the effects of climate change on biological communities, offering an opportunity to address the impact of global climate change proactively.     

Anthropogenic modification disrupts species co‐occurrence in stream invertebrates

The question of whether species co‐occurrence is random or deterministic has received considerable attention, but little is known about how anthropogenic disturbance mediates the outcomes. By combining experiments, field surveys and analysis against null models, we tested the hypothesis that anthropogenic habitat modification disrupts species co‐occurrence in stream invertebrates across spatial scales. Whereas communities in unmodified conditions were structured deterministically with significant species segregation, catchment‐scale conversion to agriculture and sediment deposition at the patch‐ or micro‐habitat scale apparently randomized species co‐occurrences. This shift from non‐random to random was mostly independent of species richness, abundance and spatial scale. Data on community‐wide life‐history traits (body size, dispersal ability and predatory habits) and beta‐diversity indicated that anthropogenic modification disrupted community assembly by affecting biotic interactions and, to a lesser extent, altering habitat heterogeneity. These data illustrate that the balance between predictable and stochastic patterns in communities can reflect anthropogenic modifications that not only transcend scales but also change the relative forces that determine species coexistence. Research into the effects of habitat modification as a key to understanding global change should extend beyond species richness and composition to include species co‐occurrence, species interactions and any functional consequences.     

Rapid changes in bird community composition at multiple temporal and spatial scales in response to recent climate change

Although climate change is acknowledged to affect population dynamics and species distribution, details of how community composition is affected are still lacking. We investigate whether ongoing changes in bird community composition can be explained by contemporary changes in summer temperatures, using four independent long‐term bird census schemes from Sweden (up to 57 yr); two at the national scale and two at local scales. The change in bird community composition was represented by a community temperature index (CTI) that reflects the balance in abundance between low‐ and high‐temperature dwelling species. In all schemes, CTI tracked patterns of temperature increase, stability or decrease remarkably well, with a lag period of 1–3 yr. This response was similar at both the national and local scale. However, the communities did not respond fast enough to cope with temperature increase, suggesting that community composition lags behind changes in temperature. The change in CTI was caused mainly by changes in species’ relative abundances, and less so by changes in species composition. We conclude that ongoing changes in bird community structure are driven to a large extent by contemporary changes in climate and that CTI can be used as a simple indicator for how bird communities respond.     

Long‐term experimental warming alters community composition of ascomycetes in Alaskan moist and dry arctic tundra

Arctic tundra regions have been responding to global warming with visible changes in plant community composition, including expansion of shrubs and declines in lichens and bryophytes. Even though it is well known that the majority of arctic plants are associated with their symbiotic fungi, how fungal community composition will be different with climate warming remains largely unknown. In this study, we addressed the effects of long‐term (18 years) experimental warming on the community composition and taxonomic richness of soil ascomycetes in dry and moist tundra types. Using deep Ion Torrent sequencing, we quantified how OTU assemblage and richness of different orders of Ascomycota changed in response to summer warming. Experimental warming significantly altered ascomycete communities with stronger responses observed in the moist tundra compared with dry tundra. The proportion of several lichenized and moss‐associated fungi decreased with warming, while the proportion of several plant and insect pathogens and saprotrophic species was higher in the warming treatment. The observed alterations in both taxonomic and ecological groups of ascomycetes are discussed in relation to previously reported warming‐induced shifts in arctic plant communities, including decline in lichens and bryophytes and increase in coverage and biomass of shrubs.     

Temperature‐size responses match latitudinal‐size clines in arthropods,revealing critical differences between aquatic and terrestrial species

Two major intraspecific patterns of adult size variation are plastic temperature‐size (T‐S) responses and latitude‐size (L‐S) clines. Yet, the degree to which these co‐vary and share explanatory mechanisms has not been systematically evaluated. We present the largest quantitative comparison of these gradients to date, and find that their direction and magnitude co‐vary among 12 arthropod orders (r² = 0.72). Body size in aquatic species generally reduces with both warming and decreasing latitude, whereas terrestrial species have much reduced and even opposite gradients. These patterns support the prediction that oxygen limitation is a major controlling factor in water, but not in air. Furthermore, voltinism explains much of the variation in T‐S and L‐S patterns in terrestrial but not aquatic species. While body size decreases with warming and with decreasing latitude in multivoltine terrestrial arthropods, size increases on average in univoltine species, consistent with predictions from size vs. season‐length trade‐offs.     

Urbanization drives community shifts towards thermophilic and dispersive species at local and landscape scales

The increasing conversion of agricultural and natural areas to human‐dominated urban landscapes is predicted to lead to a major decline in biodiversity worldwide. Two conditions that typically differ between urban environments and the surrounding landscape are increased temperature, and high patch isolation and habitat turnover rates. However, the extent and spatial scale at which these altered conditions shape biotic communities through selection and/or filtering on species traits are currently poorly understood. We sampled carabid beetles at 81 sites in Belgium using a hierarchically nested sampling design wherein three local‐scale (200 × 200 m) urbanization levels were repeatedly sampled across three landscape‐scale (3 × 3 km) urbanization levels. First, we showed that communities sampled in the most urbanized locations and landscapes displayed a distinct species composition at both local and landscape scale. Second, we related community means of species‐specific thermal preferences and dispersal capacity (based on European distribution and wing morphology, respectively) to the urbanization gradients. We showed that urban communities consisted on average of species with a preference for higher temperatures and with better dispersal capacities compared to rural communities. These shifts were caused by an increased number of species tolerating higher temperatures, a decreased richness of species with low thermal preference, and an almost complete depletion of species with very low‐dispersal capacity in the most urbanized localities. Effects of urbanization were most clearly detected at the local scale, although more subtle effects could also be found at the scale of entire landscapes. Our results demonstrate that urbanization may fundamentally and consistently alter species composition by exerting a strong filtering effect on species dispersal characteristics and favouring replacement by warm‐dwelling species.     

52 Beta-dimethylsulfoniopropionate (Dmsp) as a grazing deterrent in coastal phytoplankton communities

One of the most commonly predicted effects of global ocean warming on marine communities is a poleward shift in the distribution of species with an associated replacement of cold-water species by warm-water species. Such predictions are imprecise and based largely on broad correlations in uncontrolled studies that examine changes in species composition and abundance relative to seawater temperature. Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) analyses of the effects of a large thermal discharge shows that an induced 3.4 deg. C rise in seawater temperature over 10 years along 2 km of rocky coastline resulted in significant community-wide changes in 150 species of algae and invertebrates relative to controls. Contrary to predictions from biogeographic models, there was no trend towards warm-water species with southern geographic affinities replacing cold-species with northern affinities. Instead, communities were greatly altered in apparently cascading responses to changes in abundance of several habitat-forming taxa, particularly subtidal kelps (e.g. Pterygophora californica ) and intertidal foliose red algae (e.g. Mazzaella flaccida ). Many temperature sensitive algae decreased greatly in abundance, whereas many invertebrate grazers increased. The results indicate that the responses of temperate reef communities to ocean warming can be strongly coupled to direct effects on habitat-forming taxa and indirect effects operating through ecological interactions. Given our understanding of temperate reef ecology and its local variability, the results also suggest that accurate predictions of the effects of global ocean warming will be difficult to make.     

Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high‐intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully ‘tracking’ climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm‐ and cold‐associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold‐associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm‐associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting ‘adaptive’ community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high‐intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold‐adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm‐associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation.