Woody vegetation dynamics in the tropical and subtropical Andes from 2001 to 2014: Satellite image interpretation and expert validation

The interactions between climate and land‐use change are dictating the distribution of flora and fauna and reshuffling biotic community composition around the world. Tropical mountains are particularly sensitive because they often have a high human population density, a long history of agriculture, range‐restricted species, and high‐beta diversity due to a steep elevation gradient. Here we evaluated the change in distribution of woody vegetation in the tropical Andes of South America for the period 2001–2014. For the analyses we created annual land‐cover/land‐use maps using MODIS satellite data at 250 m pixel resolution, calculated the cover of woody vegetation (trees and shrubs) in 9,274 hexagons of 115.47 km², and then determined if there was a statistically significant (p < 0.05) 14 year linear trend (positive—forest gain, negative—forest loss) within each hexagon. Of the 1,308 hexagons with significant trends, 36.6% (n = 479) lost forests and 63.4% (n = 829) gained forests. We estimated an overall net gain of ~500,000 ha in woody vegetation. Forest loss dominated the 1,000–1,499 m elevation zone and forest gain dominated above 1,500 m. The most important transitions were forest loss at lower elevations for pastures and croplands, forest gain in abandoned pastures and cropland in mid‐elevation areas, and shrub encroachment into highland grasslands. Expert validation confirmed the observed trends, but some areas of apparent forest gain were associated with new shade coffee, pine, or eucalypt plantations. In addition, after controlling for elevation and country, forest gain was associated with a decline in the rural population. Although we document an overall gain in forest cover, the recent reversal of forest gains in Colombia demonstrates that these coupled natural‐human systems are highly dynamic and there is an urgent need of a regional real‐time land‐use, biodiversity, and ecosystem services monitoring network.     

Past vegetation dynamics in the Yellowstone region highlight the vulnerability of mountain systems to climate change

Aim

Reconstruct the long‐term ecosystem dynamics of the region across an elevational gradient as they relate to climate and local controls. In particular, we (1) describe the dominant conifers' history; (2) assess changes in vegetation composition and distribution; and (3) note periods of abrupt change versus stability as means of better understanding vegetation responses to environmental variability.

Location

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE; USA).

Time period

16.5 ka bp ‐present.

Major taxa studied

Juniperus, Picea, Abies, Pinus, Pseudotsuga.

Methods

The vegetation reconstruction was developed from 15 pollen records. Results were interpreted based on modern pollen–vegetation relationships estimated from a suite of regression‐based approaches.

Results

Calibrated pollen data suggest that late‐glacial vegetation, dominated by shrubs and Juniperus, lacks a modern counterpart in the area. Picea, Abies and Pinus expanded at 16 ka bp in association with postglacial warming and co‐occurred in mixed‐conifer parkland/forest after 12 ka bp . This association along with Pinus contorta forest, which was present after 9 ka bp , has persisted with little change at middle and high elevations to the present day. This stability contrasts with the dynamic history of plant communities at low elevations, where shifts between parkland, steppe and forest over the last 8,000 years were likely driven by variations in effective moisture and fire.

Main conclusions

The postglacial vegetation history of the GYE highlights the dynamic nature of mountain ecosystems and informs on their vulnerability to future climate change: (1) most of the conifers have been present in the area for >12,000 years and survived climate change by adjusting their elevational ranges; (2) some plant associations have exhibited stability over millennia as a result of nonclimatic controls; and (3) present‐day forest cover is elevationally more compressed than at any time in history, probably due to the legacy of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age.     

Relationships between expanding pinyon–juniper cover and topography in the central Great Basin, Nevada

Aim Increasing geographical range and density of conifers is a major form of land‐cover change in the western United States, affecting fire frequency, biogeochemistry and possibly biodiversity. However, the extent and magnitude of the change are uncertain. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between changing conifer cover and topography. Location The central Great Basin in the state of Nevada, USA. Methods We used a series of Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite images from 1986, 1995 and 2005 to map change in pinyon–juniper woodlands (Pinus monophylla, Juniperus spp.) in the montane central Great Basin of Nevada. We derived fractional greenness for each year using spectral mixture analysis and identified all areas with an above average increase in greenness from 1986 to 1995 and 1995 to 2005. Results Areas with high fractional greenness in 2005 were most likely to occur at elevations between 2200 and 2600 m a.s.l. Increases in fractional greenness between 1986 and 2005 were most likely to occur at elevations below 2000 m a.s.l. and on south‐facing slopes. However, relationships between elevation and increasing greenness for individual mountain ranges varied considerably from the average trend. Fractional greenness values measured by Landsat suggest that the majority of pinyon–juniper woodlands have not reached their maximum potential tree cover. Main conclusions Expansion of pinyon–juniper at low elevations and on south‐facing slopes probably reflects increasing precipitation in the 20th century, higher water use efficiency caused by increasing atmospheric CO₂ in the late 20th century and livestock grazing at the interface between shrubland and woodland. Identification of the spatial relationships between changing fractional greenness of pinyon–juniper woodland and topography can inform regional land management and improve projections of long‐term ecosystem change.     

Satellite‐based evidence for shrub and graminoid tundra expansion in northern Quebec from 1986 to 2010

Global vegetation models predict rapid poleward migration of tundra and boreal forest vegetation in response to climate warming. Local plot and air‐photo studies have documented recent changes in high‐latitude vegetation composition and structure, consistent with warming trends. To bridge these two scales of inference, we analyzed a 24‐year (1986–2010) Landsat time series in a latitudinal transect across the boreal forest‐tundra biome boundary in northern Quebec province, Canada. This region has experienced rapid warming during both winter and summer months during the last 40 years. Using a per‐pixel (30 m) trend analysis, 30% of the observable (cloud‐free) land area experienced a significant (P < 0.05) positive trend in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, greening trends were not evenly split among cover types. Low shrub and graminoid tundra contributed preferentially to the greening trend, while forested areas were less likely to show significant trends in NDVI. These trends reflect increasing leaf area, rather than an increase in growing season length, because Landsat data were restricted to peak‐summer conditions. The average NDVI trend (0.007 yr^?1) corresponds to a leaf‐area index (LAI) increase of ~0.6 based on the regional relationship between LAI and NDVI from the Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer. Across the entire transect, the area‐averaged LAI increase was ~0.2 during 1986–2010. A higher area‐averaged LAI change (~0.3) within the shrub‐tundra portion of the transect represents a 20–60% relative increase in LAI during the last two decades. Our Landsat‐based analysis subdivides the overall high‐latitude greening trend into changes in peak‐summer greenness by cover type. Different responses within and among shrub, graminoid, and tree‐dominated cover types in this study indicate important fine‐scale heterogeneity in vegetation growth. Although our findings are consistent with community shifts in low‐biomass vegetation types over multi‐decadal time scales, the response in tundra and forest ecosystems to recent warming was not uniform.     

Absence of snow cover reduces understory plant cover and alters plant community composition in boreal forests

Snow regimes affect biogeochemistry of boreal ecosystems and are altered by climate change. The effects on plant communities, however, are largely unexplored despite their influence on relevant processes. Here, the impact of snow cover on understory community composition and below-ground production in a boreal Picea abies forest was investigated using a long-term (8-year) snow cover manipulation experiment consisting of the treatments: snow removal, increased insulation (styrofoam pellets), and control. The snow removal treatment caused longer (118 vs. 57 days) and deeper soil frost (mean minimum temperature −5.5 vs. −2.2°C) at 10 cm soil depth in comparison to control. Understory species composition was strongly altered by the snow cover manipulations; vegetation cover declined by more than 50% in the snow removal treatment. In particular, the dominant dwarf shrub Vaccinium myrtillus (−82%) and the most abundant mosses Pleurozium schreberi (−74%) and Dicranum scoparium (−60%) declined strongly. The C:N ratio in V. myrtillus leaves and plant available N in the soil indicated no altered nitrogen nutrition. Fine-root biomass in summer, however, was negatively affected by the reduced snow cover (−50%). Observed effects are attributed to direct frost damage of roots and/ or shoots. Besides the obvious relevance of winter processes on plant ecology and distribution, we propose that shifts in the vegetation caused by frost damage may be an important driver of the reported alterations in biogeochemistry in response to altered snow cover. Understory plant performance clearly needs to be considered in the biogeochemistry of boreal systems in the face of climate change.     

Response of the moss Racomitrium lanuginosum to changes in sheep grazing and snow‐lie due to a snow‐fence

Question: What are the responses of Racomitrium lanuginosum moss to altered snow‐lie and sheep use? Location: ACarexbigelowii‐Racomitrium lanuginosum heath on a Scottish montane plateau affected since 1986 by a fenced ski corridor. Methods: Permanent quadrats were set up along transects 45 m long perpendicular to the snow‐fence. Cover was assessed over a 12‐year period from 1990. Pellet‐group clearance counts provided data on sheep usage between 1990 and 1996. Snow‐lie was mapped in the springs of 1991–1996. Results: The snow‐fence created a gradient in sheep use and altered the duration of snow‐lie. At the start of monitoring Racomitrium cover was lower immediately adjacent to the fence, and after 12 years its cover was significantly reduced within 10 m of the fence. Further away from the fence Racomitrium cover was relatively stable. The loss of Racomitrium was correlated both with increased snow‐lie and heavier sheep usage. Grass cover increased near the fence and was related to sheep use. Dicranum fuscescens responded differently to Racomitrium, increasing significantly near the fence. Conclusions: We found that changes in snow‐lie and grazing pressure quickly brought about vegetation change in this montane ecosystem. Racomitrium was the most sensitive species to the changes in grazing and snow‐lie caused by the fence, having the biggest initial changes. Loss of Racomitrium permitted increases of species more resistant to grazing including Dicranum fuscescens and grasses.     

Land‐use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa

Global change will likely affect savanna and forest structure and distributions, with implications for diversity within both biomes. Few studies have examined the impacts of both expected precipitation and land use changes on vegetation structure in the future, despite their likely severity. Here, we modeled tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa, as a proxy for vegetation structure and land cover change, using climatic, edaphic, and anthropic data (R² = 0.97). Projected tree cover for the year 2070, simulated using scenarios that include climate and land use projections, generally decreased, both in forest and savanna, although the directionality of changes varied locally. The main driver of tree cover changes was land use change; the effects of precipitation change were minor by comparison. Interestingly, carbon emissions mitigation via increasing biofuels production resulted in decreases in tree cover, more severe than scenarios with more intense precipitation change, especially within savannas. Evaluation of tree cover change against protected area extent at the WWF Ecoregion scale suggested areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem services concern. Those forests most vulnerable to large decreases in tree cover were also highly protected, potentially buffering the effects of global change. Meanwhile, savannas, especially where they immediately bordered forests (e.g. West and Central Africa), were characterized by a dearth of protected areas, making them highly vulnerable. Savanna must become an explicit policy priority in the face of climate and land use change if conservation and livelihoods are to remain viable into the next century.     

Annual variation in the distribution of summer snowdrifts in the Kosciuszko alpine area,Australia, and its effect on the composition and structure of alpine vegetation

Abstract Australian alpine ecosystems are expected to diminish in extent as global warming intensifies. Alpine vegetation patterns are influenced by the duration of snow cover including the presence of snowdrifts in summer, but there is little quantitative information on landscape‐scale relationships between vegetation patterns and the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts in the Australian alps. We mapped annual changes in summer snowdrifts in the Kosciuszko alpine region, Australia, from Landsat TM images and modelled the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts from long‐term records (1954–2003) of winter snow depth. We then compared vegetation composition and structure among four classes that differed in the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts. We found a curvilinear relationship between annual winter snow depth and the area occupied by persistent snowdrifts in the following summer (r² = 0.9756). Only 21 ha (0.42% of study area) was predicted to have supported summer snowdrifts in 80% of the past 50 years, while 440 ha supported persistent summer snow in 10% of years. Mean cover and species richness of vascular plants declined significantly, and species composition varied significantly, as the frequency of summer snow persistence increased. Cushion plants and rushes were most abundant where summer snowdrifts occurred most frequently, and shrubs, grasses and sedges were most abundant in areas that did not support snowdrifts in summer. The results demonstrate strong regional relationships between vegetation composition and structure and the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts. Reductions in winter snow depth due to global warming are expected to lead to substantial reductions in the extent of persistent summer snowdrifts. As a consequence, shrubs, grasses and sedges are predicted to expand at the expense of cushion plants and rushes, reducing landscape vegetation diversity. Fortunately, few vascular plant species (e.g. Ranunculus niphophilus) appear to be totally restricted to areas where summer snow occurs most frequently. The results from this study highlight potential indicator species that could be monitored to assess the effects of global warming on Australian alpine environments.     

The potential importance of unburned islands as refugia for the persistence of wildlife species in fire‐prone ecosystems

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Long‐term deepened snow promotes tundra evergreen shrub growth and summertime ecosystem net CO2 gain but reduces soil carbon and nutrient pools

Arctic climate warming will be primarily during winter, resulting in increased snowfall in many regions. Previous tundra research on the impacts of deepened snow has generally been of short duration. Here, we report relatively long‐term (7–9 years) effects of experimentally deepened snow on plant community structure, net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE), and soil biogeochemistry in Canadian Low Arctic mesic shrub tundra. The snowfence treatment enhanced snow depth from 0.3 to ~1 m, increasing winter soil temperatures by ~3°C, but with no effect on summer soil temperature, moisture, or thaw depth. Nevertheless, shoot biomass of the evergreen shrub Rhododendron subarcticum was near‐doubled by the snowfences, leading to a 52% increase in aboveground vascular plant biomass. Additionally, summertime NEE rates, measured in collars containing similar plant biomass across treatments, were consistently reduced ~30% in the snowfenced plots due to decreased ecosystem respiration rather than increased gross photosynthesis. Phosphate in the organic soil layer (0–10 cm depth) and nitrate in the mineral soil layer (15–25 cm depth) were substantially reduced within the snowfences (47–70 and 43%–73% reductions, respectively, across sampling times). Finally, the snowfences tended (p = .08) to reduce mineral soil layer C% by 40%, but with considerable within‐ and among plot variation due to cryoturbation across the landscape. These results indicate that enhanced snow accumulation is likely to further increase dominance of R. subarcticum in its favored locations, and reduce summertime respiration and soil biogeochemical pools. Since evergreens are relatively slow growing and of low stature, their increased dominance may constrain vegetation‐related feedbacks to climate change. We found no evidence that deepened snow promoted deciduous shrub growth in mesic tundra, and conclude that the relatively strong R. subarcticum response to snow accumulation may explain the extensive spatial variability in observed circumpolar patterns of evergreen and deciduous shrub growth over the past 30 years.     

Satellite observed widespread decline in Mongolian grasslands largely due to overgrazing

The Mongolian Steppe is one of the largest remaining grassland ecosystems. Recent studies have reported widespread decline of vegetation across the steppe and about 70% of this ecosystem is now considered degraded. Among the scientific community there has been an active debate about whether the observed degradation is related to climate, or over‐grazing, or both. Here, we employ a new atmospheric correction and cloud screening algorithm (MAIAC) to investigate trends in satellite observed vegetation phenology. We relate these trends to changes in climate and domestic animal populations. A series of harmonic functions is fitted to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed phenological curves to quantify seasonal and inter‐annual changes in vegetation. Our results show a widespread decline (of about 12% on average) in MODIS observed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) across the country but particularly in the transition zone between grassland and the Gobi desert, where recent decline was as much as 40% below the 2002 mean NDVI. While we found considerable regional differences in the causes of landscape degradation, about 80% of the decline in NDVI could be attributed to increase in livestock. Changes in precipitation were able to explain about 30% of degradation across the country as a whole but up to 50% in areas with denser vegetation cover (P < 0.05). Temperature changes, while significant, played only a minor role (r² = 0.10, P < 0.05). Our results suggest that the cumulative effect of overgrazing is a primary contributor to the degradation of the Mongolian steppe and is at least partially responsible for desertification reported in previous studies.     

Decrease in winter respiration explains 25% of the annual northern forest carbon sink enhancement over the last 30 years

Aim Winter snow has been suggested to regulate terrestrial carbon (C) cycling by modifying microclimate, but the impacts of change in snow cover on the annual C budget at a large scale are poorly understood. Our aim is to quantify the C balance under changing snow depth. Location Non‐permafrost region of the northern forest area. Methods Here, we used site‐based eddy covariance flux data to investigate the relationship between depth of snow cover and ecosystem respiration (R_eco) during winter. We then used the Biome‐BGC model to estimate the effect of reductions in winter snow cover on the C balance of northern forests in the non‐permafrost region. Results According to site observations, winter net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) ranged from 0.028 to 1.53 gC·m^?2·day^?1, accounting for 44 ± 123% of the annual C budget. Model simulation showed that over the past 30 years, snow‐driven change in winter C fluxes reduced non‐growing season CO₂ emissions, enhancing the annual C sink of northern forests. Over the entire study area, simulated winter R_eco significantly decreased by 0.33 gC·m^?2·day^?1·year^?1 in response to decreasing depth of snow cover, which accounts for approximately 25% of the simulated annual C sink trend from 1982 to 2009. Main conclusion Soil temperature is primarily controlled by snow cover rather than by air temperature as snow serves as an insulator to prevent chilling impacts. A shallow snow cover has less insulation potential, causing colder soil temperatures and potentially lower respiration rates. Both eddy covariance analysis and model‐simulated results show that both R_eco and NEE are significantly and positively correlated with variation in soil temperature controlled by variation in snow depth. Overall, our results highlight that a decrease in winter snow cover restrains global warming as less C is emitted to the atmosphere.     

In the shadows of snow leopards and the Himalayas: density and habitat selection of blue sheep in Manang,Nepal

There is a growing agreement that conservation needs to be proactive and pay increased attention to common species and to the threats they face. The blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) plays a key ecological role in sensitive high‐altitude ecosystems of Central Asia and is among the main prey species for the globally vulnerable snow leopard (Panthera uncia). As the blue sheep has been increasingly exposed to human pressures, it is vital to estimate its population dynamics, protect the key populations, identify important habitats, and secure a balance between conservation and local livelihoods. We conducted a study in Manang, Annapurna Conservation Area (Nepal), to survey blue sheep on 60 transects in spring (127.9 km) and 61 transects in autumn (134.7 km) of 2019, estimate their minimum densities from total counts, compare these densities with previous estimates, and assess blue sheep habitat selection by the application of generalized additive models (GAMs). Total counts yielded minimum density estimates of 6.0–7.7 and 6.9–7.8 individuals/km² in spring and autumn, respectively, which are relatively high compared to other areas. Elevation and, to a lesser extent, land cover indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) strongly affected habitat selection by blue sheep, whereas the effects of anthropogenic variables were insignificant. Animals were found mainly in habitats associated with grasslands and shrublands at elevations between 4,200 and 4,700 m. We show that the blue sheep population size in Manang has been largely maintained over the past three decades, indicating the success of the integrated conservation and development efforts in this area. Considering a strong dependence of snow leopards on blue sheep, these findings give hope for the long‐term conservation of this big cat in Manang. We suggest that long‐term population monitoring and a better understanding of blue sheep–livestock interactions are crucial to maintain healthy populations of blue sheep and, as a consequence, of snow leopards.     

Among‐tree variability and feedback effects result in different growth responses to climate change at the upper treeline in the Swiss Alps

Upper treeline ecotones are important life form boundaries and particularly sensitive to a warming climate. Changes in growth conditions at these ecotones have wide‐ranging implications for the provision of ecosystem services in densely populated mountain regions like the European Alps. We quantify climate effects on short‐ and long‐term tree growth responses, focusing on among‐tree variability and potential feedback effects. Although among‐tree variability is thought to be substantial, it has not been considered systematically yet in studies on growth–climate relationships. We compiled tree‐ring data including almost 600 trees of major treeline species (Larix decidua, Picea abies, Pinus cembra, and Pinus mugo) from three climate regions of the Swiss Alps. We further acquired tree size distribution data using unmanned aerial vehicles. To account for among‐tree variability, we employed information‐theoretic model selections based on linear mixed‐effects models (LMMs) with flexible choice of monthly temperature effects on growth. We isolated long‐term trends in ring‐width indices (RWI) in interaction with elevation. The LMMs revealed substantial amounts of previously unquantified among‐tree variability, indicating different strategies of single trees regarding when and to what extent to invest assimilates into growth. Furthermore, the LMMs indicated strongly positive temperature effects on growth during short summer periods across all species, and significant contributions of fall (L. decidua) and current year's spring (L. decidua, P. abies). In the longer term, all species showed consistently positive RWI trends at highest elevations, but different patterns with decreasing elevation. L. decidua exhibited even negative RWI trends compared to the highest treeline sites, whereas P. abies, P. cembra, and P. mugo showed steeper or flatter trends with decreasing elevation. This does not only reflect effects of ameliorated climate conditions on tree growth over time, but also reveals first signs of long‐suspected negative and positive feedback of climate change on stand dynamics at treeline.     

Consequences of declining snow accumulation for water balance of mid‐latitude dry regions

Widespread documentation of positive winter temperature anomalies, declining snowpack and earlier snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere have raised concerns about the consequences for regional water resources as well as wildfire. A topic that has not been addressed with respect to declining snowpack is effects on ecosystem water balance. Changes in water balance dynamics will be particularly pronounced at low elevations of mid‐latitude dry regions because these areas will be the first to be affected by declining snow as a result of rising temperatures. As a model system, we used simulation experiments to investigate big sagebrush ecosystems that dominate a large fraction of the semiarid western United States. Our results suggest that effects on future ecosystem water balance will increase along a climatic gradient from dry, warm and snow‐poor to wet, cold and snow‐rich. Beyond a threshold within this climatic gradient, predicted consequences for vegetation switched from no change to increasing transpiration. Responses were sensitive to uncertainties in climatic prediction; particularly, a shift of precipitation to the colder season could reduce impacts of a warmer and snow‐poorer future, depending on the degree to which ecosystem phenology tracks precipitation changes. Our results suggest that big sagebrush and other similar semiarid ecosystems could decrease in viability or disappear in dry to medium areas and likely increase only in the snow‐richest areas, i.e. higher elevations and higher latitudes. Unlike cold locations at high elevations or in the arctic, ecosystems at low elevations respond in a different and complex way to future conditions because of opposing effects of increasing water‐limitation and a longer snow‐free season. Outcomes of such nonlinear interactions for future ecosystems will likely include changes in plant composition and productivity, dynamics of water balance, and availability of water resources.     

Landscape characteristics of non‐native pine plantations and invasions in Southern Chile

The spread of non‐native conifers into areas naturally dominated by other vegetation types is a growing problem in South America. This process results in a landscape transformation as the conifers suppress native vegetation leading to reduced biodiversity, lower water availability and altered nutrient dynamics. Previous research highlights the broad spatial extents of land cover change in parts of Chile. However, in Southern Chile, the extent of plantations and the landscape characteristics associated with plantations and ongoing pine invasions are poorly understood. Here, we characterised non‐native pine land cover within one Landsat scene (World Reference System 2 Path 232/Row 92; ~34 000 km²) in Southern Chile. We created training data based on historical high‐resolution imagery, derived land cover predictors from time series of Landsat observations and used a Random Forest classifier to map the distribution of non‐native pines. The overall classification accuracy was 88%, and the accuracy of the non‐native pine class exceeded 90%. Although 71% of non‐native pine patches were within 500 m of other non‐native pine patches, isolated non‐native pine patches were found to occur up to 55 km from the nearest neighbour. These distant plantations could exacerbate invasion risk by creating propagule sources for novel invasion fronts. In relation to landscape characteristics, non‐native pines were found to be more likely to occur in low slope and mid‐elevation areas. Because most of the study area is native forest, most non‐native pine patches border native forest. However, non‐native pine patches were almost three times more likely than random patches to border grass/agriculture. This suggests that grasslands and disturbed sites, which have low resistance to non‐native pine invasion, are disproportionately exposed to pine propagules. Our results indicate that non‐native pine plantations are extensive across Southern Chile, and well poised to cause future invasion.     

Spatiotemporal remote sensing of ecosystem change and causation across Alaska

Contemporary climate change in Alaska has resulted in amplified rates of press and pulse disturbances that drive ecosystem change with significant consequences for socio‐environmental systems. Despite the vulnerability of Arctic and boreal landscapes to change, little has been done to characterize landscape change and associated drivers across northern high‐latitude ecosystems. Here we characterize the historical sensitivity of Alaska's ecosystems to environmental change and anthropogenic disturbances using expert knowledge, remote sensing data, and spatiotemporal analyses and modeling. Time‐series analysis of moderate—and high‐resolution imagery was used to characterize land‐ and water‐surface dynamics across Alaska. Some 430,000 interpretations of ecological and geomorphological change were made using historical air photos and satellite imagery, and corroborate land‐surface greening, browning, and wetness/moisture trend parameters derived from peak‐growing season Landsat imagery acquired from 1984 to 2015. The time series of change metrics, together with climatic data and maps of landscape characteristics, were incorporated into a modeling framework for mapping and understanding of drivers of change throughout Alaska. According to our analysis, approximately 13% (~174,000 ± 8700 km²) of Alaska has experienced directional change in the last 32 years (±95% confidence intervals). At the ecoregions level, substantial increases in remotely sensed vegetation productivity were most pronounced in western and northern foothills of Alaska, which is explained by vegetation growth associated with increasing air temperatures. Significant browning trends were largely the result of recent wildfires in interior Alaska, but browning trends are also driven by increases in evaporative demand and surface‐water gains that have predominately occurred over warming permafrost landscapes. Increased rates of photosynthetic activity are associated with stabilization and recovery processes following wildfire, timber harvesting, insect damage, thermokarst, glacial retreat, and lake infilling and drainage events. Our results fill a critical gap in the understanding of historical and potential future trajectories of change in northern high‐latitude regions.     

Alpine and subalpine snow patch vegetation on the Bogong High Plains,SE Australia

Abstract. Snow patch vegetation in Australia is rare, being restricted to the relatively small area of alpine and subalpine country in the highlands of southeastern Australia. Snow patch vegetation occurs on steeper, sheltered southeastern slopes, where snow persists until well into the growing season (December/January). We surveyed the vegetation of 33 snow patch sites in the alpine and subalpine tracts of the Bogong High Plains, within the Alpine National Park, in Victoria. The vegetation was dominated by herbs and graminoids, with few shrubs and mosses. Major structural assemblages identified included closed herb‐fields dominated by Celmisia spp, and grasslands dominated by Poa fawcettiae or Poa costiniana. These assemblages occurred on mineral soils. Open herb‐fields dominated by Caltha introloba and several sedge species occurred on rocky and stony substrata. Vegetation‐environment relationships were explored by ordination and vector fitting. There was significant variation in the floristic composition of snow patch vegetation as a function of duration of snow cover, altitude, slope and site rockiness. Alpine sites were floristically distinct from subalpine sites, with a greater cover of Celmisia spp. and a lesser cover of low shrubs in the former. There was floristic variation within some snow patches as a function of slope position (upper, middle or lower slope) but this was not consistent across sites. The current condition of snow patch vegetation on the Bogong High Plains is degraded, with bare ground exceeding 20% cover at most sites. Snow patch vegetation is utilized preferentially by domestic cattle, which graze parts of the Bogong High Plains in summer. Such grazing is a potential threat to this rare vegetation type.     

Local snow melt and temperature—but not regional sea ice—explain variation in spring phenology in coastal Arctic tundra

The Arctic is undergoing dramatic environmental change with rapidly rising surface temperatures, accelerating sea ice decline and changing snow regimes, all of which influence tundra plant phenology. Despite these changes, no globally consistent direction of trends in spring phenology has been reported across the Arctic. While spring has advanced at some sites, spring has delayed or not changed at other sites, highlighting substantial unexplained variation. Here, we test the relative importance of local temperatures, local snow melt date and regional spring drop in sea ice extent as controls of variation in spring phenology across different sites and species. Trends in long‐term time series of spring leaf‐out and flowering (average span: 18 years) were highly variable for the 14 tundra species monitored at our four study sites on the Arctic coasts of Alaska, Canada and Greenland, ranging from advances of 10.06 days per decade to delays of 1.67 days per decade. Spring temperatures and the day of spring drop in sea ice extent advanced at all sites (average 1°C per decade and 21 days per decade, respectively), but only those sites with advances in snow melt (average 5 days advance per decade) also had advancing phenology. Variation in spring plant phenology was best explained by snow melt date (mean effect: 0.45 days advance in phenology per day advance snow melt) and, to a lesser extent, by mean spring temperature (mean effect: 2.39 days advance in phenology per °C). In contrast to previous studies examining sea ice and phenology at different spatial scales, regional spring drop in sea ice extent did not predict spring phenology for any species or site in our analysis. Our findings highlight that tundra vegetation responses to global change are more complex than a direct response to warming and emphasize the importance of snow melt as a local driver of tundra spring phenology.     

Divergent carbon cycle response of forest and grass‐dominated northern temperate ecosystems to record winter warming

Northern temperate ecosystems are experiencing warmer and more variable winters, trends that are expected to continue into the foreseeable future. Despite this, most studies have focused on climate change impacts during the growing season, particularly when comparing responses across different vegetation cover types. Here we examined how a perennial grassland and adjacent mixed forest ecosystem in New Hampshire, United States, responded to a period of highly variable winters from 2014 through 2017 that included the warmest winter on record to date. In the grassland, record‐breaking temperatures in the winter of 2015/2016 led to a February onset of plant growth and the ecosystem became a sustained carbon sink well before winter ended, taking up roughly 90 g/m² more carbon during the winter to spring transition than in other recorded years. The forest was an unusually large carbon source during the same period. While forest photosynthesis was restricted by leaf‐out phenology, warm winter temperatures caused large pulses of ecosystem respiration that released nearly 230 g C/m² from February through April, more than double the carbon losses during that period in cooler years. These findings suggest that, as winters continue to warm, increases in ecosystem respiration outside the growing season could outpace increases in carbon uptake during a longer growing season, particularly in forests that depend on leaf‐out timing to initiate carbon uptake. In ecosystems with a perennial leaf habit, warming winter temperatures are more likely to increase ecosystem carbon uptake through extension of the active growing season. Our results highlight the importance of understanding relationships among antecedent winter conditions and carbon exchange across land‐cover types to understand how landscape carbon exchange will change under projected climate warming.