Warming experiments elucidate the drivers of observed directional changes in tundra vegetation

Few studies have clearly linked long‐term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long‐term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes.     

Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long‐term responses of above‐ and belowground sub‐Arctic heathland communities to climate change

Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub‐Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro‐arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro‐arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO₂ fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub‐Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub‐Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single‐factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may have clear impacts, more work is needed to understand their net effect on Arctic ecosystems.     

Warming off southwestern Japan linked to distributional shifts of subtidal canopy‐forming seaweeds

To assess distributional shifts of species in response to recent warming, historical distribution records are the most requisite information. The surface seawater temperature (SST) of Kochi Prefecture, southwestern Japan on the western North Pacific, has significantly risen, being warmed by the Kuroshio Current. Past distributional records of subtidal canopy‐forming seaweeds (Laminariales and Fucales) exist at about 10‐year intervals from the 1970s, along with detailed SST datasets at several sites along Kochi's >700 km coastline. In order to provide a clear picture of distributional shifts of coastal marine organisms in response to warming SST, we observed the present distribution of seaweeds and analyzed the SST datasets to estimate spatiotemporal SST trends in this coastal region. We present a large increase of 0.3°C/decade in the annual mean SST of this area over the past 40 years. Furthermore, a comparison of the previous and present distributions clearly showed the contraction of temperate species' distributional ranges and expansion of tropical species' distributional ranges in the seaweeds. Although the main temperate kelp Ecklonia (Laminariales) had expanded their distribution during periods of cooler SST, they subsequently declined as the SST warmed. Notably, the warmest SST of the 1997–98 El Niño Southern Oscillation event was the most likely cause of a widespread destruction of the kelp populations; no recovery was found even in the present survey at the formerly habitable sites where warm SSTs have been maintained. Temperate Sargassum spp. (Fucales) that dominated widely in the 1970s also declined in accordance with recent warming SSTs. In contrast, the tropical species, S. ilicifolium, has gradually expanded its distribution to become the most conspicuously dominant among the present observations. Thermal gradients, mainly driven by the warming Kuroshio Current, are presented as an explanation for the successive changes in both temperate and tropical species' distributions.     

Carbon assimilation and transfer through kelp forests in the NE Atlantic is diminished under a warmer ocean climate

Global climate change is affecting carbon cycling by driving changes in primary productivity and rates of carbon fixation, release and storage within Earth's vegetated systems. There is, however, limited understanding of how carbon flow between donor and recipient habitats will respond to climatic changes. Macroalgal‐dominated habitats, such as kelp forests, are gaining recognition as important carbon donors within coastal carbon cycles, yet rates of carbon assimilation and transfer through these habitats are poorly resolved. Here, we investigated the likely impacts of ocean warming on coastal carbon cycling by quantifying rates of carbon assimilation and transfer in Laminaria hyperborea kelp forests—one of the most extensive coastal vegetated habitat types in the NE Atlantic—along a latitudinal temperature gradient. Kelp forests within warm climatic regimes assimilated, on average, more than three times less carbon and donated less than half the amount of particulate carbon compared to those from cold regimes. These patterns were not related to variability in other environmental parameters. Across their wider geographical distribution, plants exhibited reduced sizes toward their warm‐water equatorward range edge, further suggesting that carbon flow is reduced under warmer climates. Overall, we estimated that Laminaria hyperborea forests stored ~11.49 Tg C in living biomass and released particulate carbon at a rate of ~5.71 Tg C year^?1. This estimated flow of carbon was markedly higher than reported values for most other marine and terrestrial vegetated habitat types in Europe. Together, our observations suggest that continued warming will diminish the amount of carbon that is assimilated and transported through temperate kelp forests in NE Atlantic, with potential consequences for the coastal carbon cycle. Our findings underline the need to consider climate‐driven changes in the capacity of ecosystems to fix and donate carbon when assessing the impacts of climate change on carbon cycling.     

Antarctic patterns of shallow subtidal habitat and inhabitants in Wilke’s Land

Studies of east Antarctic marine assemblages on hard substrata are rare. In relation to sea-ice breakout, we assessed benthic patterns of habitat and inhabitants between islands and bays at each of two depths (6 and 12 m) across the Windmill Islands coast. Island sites experience sea-ice breakout in the austral spring, while bay sites typically retain sea-ice cover into the summer and in some places the cover is virtually permanent. Composition of assemblages differed between sheltered bays and exposed islands. Islands were dominated by macroalgae, which also varied with depth. Immediately below the ice–foot zone at 6 m, substratum space were monopolised by foliose red (Palmaria decipiens) and foliose brown (Desmarestia sp.) algae, whereas at 12 m large canopies of Himantothallus grandifolius was abundant. The understorey consisted of a mixture of turfs and encrusting red algae at 6 m, and coralline algae at 12 m. Sheltered bays had large areas of sediment/algal complex and no canopy-forming macroalgae. We found more sponges and hydroids in bays, and more brittle stars around islands. Experiments testing factors that covary with exposure and depth in Antarctica, such as light, sedimentation and ice scour are necessary to determine processes that maintain these striking patterns.     

Climate change accelerates local disease extinction rates in a long‐term wild host–pathogen association

Pathogens are a significant component of all plant communities. In recent years, the potential for existing and emerging pathogens of agricultural crops to cause increased yield losses as a consequence of changing climatic patterns has raised considerable concern. In contrast, the response of naturally occurring, endemic pathogens to a warming climate has received little attention. Here, we report on the impact of a signature variable of global climate change – increasing temperature – on the long‐term epidemiology of a natural host–pathogen association involving the rust pathogen Triphragmium ulmariae and its host plant Filipendula ulmaria. In a host–pathogen metapopulation involving approximately 230 host populations growing on an archipelago of islands in the Gulf of Bothnia we assessed changes in host population size and pathogen epidemiological measures over a 25‐year period. We show how the incidence of disease and its severity declines over that period and most importantly demonstrate a positive association between a long‐term trend of increasing extinction rates in individual pathogen populations of the metapopulation and increasing temperature. Our results are highly suggestive that changing climatic patterns, particularly mean monthly growing season (April‐November) temperature, are markedly influencing the epidemiology of plant disease in this host–pathogen association. Given the important role plant pathogens have in shaping the structure of communities, changes in the epidemiology of pathogens have potentially far‐reaching impacts on ecological and evolutionary processes. For these reasons, it is essential to increase understanding of pathogen epidemiology, its response to warming, and to invoke these responses in forecasts for the future.     

Ecological regime shift drives declining growth rates of sea turtles throughout the West Atlantic

Somatic growth is an integrated, individual‐based response to environmental conditions, especially in ectotherms. Growth dynamics of large, mobile animals are particularly useful as bio‐indicators of environmental change at regional scales. We assembled growth rate data from throughout the West Atlantic for green turtles, Chelonia mydas, which are long‐lived, highly migratory, primarily herbivorous mega‐consumers that may migrate over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Our dataset, the largest ever compiled for sea turtles, has 9690 growth increments from 30 sites from Bermuda to Uruguay from 1973 to 2015. Using generalized additive mixed models, we evaluated covariates that could affect growth rates; body size, diet, and year have significant effects on growth. Growth increases in early years until 1999, then declines by 26% to 2015. The temporal (year) effect is of particular interest because two carnivorous species of sea turtles—hawksbills, Eretmochelys imbricata, and loggerheads, Caretta caretta—exhibited similar significant declines in growth rates starting in 1997 in the West Atlantic, based on previous studies. These synchronous declines in productivity among three sea turtle species across a trophic spectrum provide strong evidence that an ecological regime shift (ERS) in the Atlantic is driving growth dynamics. The ERS resulted from a synergy of the 1997/1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—the strongest on record—combined with an unprecedented warming rate over the last two to three decades. Further support is provided by the strong correlations between annualized mean growth rates of green turtles and both sea surface temperatures (SST) in the West Atlantic for years of declining growth rates (r = −.94) and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for all years (r = .74). Granger‐causality analysis also supports the latter finding. We discuss multiple stressors that could reinforce and prolong the effect of the ERS. This study demonstrates the importance of region‐wide collaborations.     

Photosynthesis and growth reduction with warming are driven by nonstomatal limitations in a Mediterranean semi‐arid shrub

Whereas warming enhances plant nutrient status and photosynthesis in most terrestrial ecosystems, dryland vegetation is vulnerable to the likely increases in evapotranspiration and reductions in soil moisture caused by elevated temperatures. Any warming‐induced declines in plant primary production and cover in drylands would increase erosion, land degradation, and desertification. We conducted a four‐year manipulative experiment in a semi‐arid Mediterranean ecosystem to evaluate the impacts of a ~2°C warming on the photosynthesis, transpiration, leaf nutrient status, chlorophyll content, isotopic composition, biomass growth, and postsummer survival of the native shrub Helianthemum squamatum. We predicted that warmed plants would show reduced photosynthetic activity and growth, primarily due to the greater stomatal limitation imposed by faster and more severe soil drying under warming. On average, warming reduced net photosynthetic rates by 36% across the study period. Despite this strong response, warming did not affect stomatal conductance and transpiration. The reduction of peak photosynthetic rates with warming was more pronounced in a drought year than in years with near‐average rainfall (75% and 25–40% reductions relative to controls, respectively), with no indications of photosynthetic acclimation to warming through time. Warmed plants had lower leaf N and P contents, δ¹³C, and sparser and smaller leaves than control plants. Warming reduced shoot dry mass production by 31%. However, warmed plants were able to cope with large reductions in net photosynthesis, leaf area, and shoot biomass production without changes in postsummer survival rates. Our findings highlight the key role of nonstomatal factors (biochemical and/or nutritional) in reducing net carbon assimilation rates and growth under warming, which has important implications for projections of plant carbon balance under the warmer and drier climatic scenario predicted for drylands worldwide. Projected climate warming over the coming decades could reduce net primary production by about one‐third in semi‐arid gypsum shrublands dominated by H. squamatum.     

Juvenile salmonid populations in a temperate river system track synoptic trends in climate

Widespread declines among Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) over recent decades have been linked to pollution, exploitation and catchment modification, but climate change is increasingly implicated. We used long‐term, geographically extensive data from the Welsh River Wye, formerly a major salmon river, to examine whether climatically mediated effects on juveniles (>0+) might contribute to population change. Populations of Atlantic salmon and brown trout fell across the Wye catchment, respectively, by 50% and 67% between 1985 and 2004, but could not be explained by pollution because water quality improved during this time. Stream temperatures, estimated from calibrations against weekly air temperature at eight sites, increased by 0.5–0.7 °C in summer and 0.7–1.0 °C in winter, with larger tributaries warming more than shaded headwaters. Rates of winter warming were slightly greater after accounting for the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation (1.1–1.4 °C). However, warming through time was smaller than measured variations among tributaries, and alone was insufficient to explain variations in salmonid density. Instead, population variations were best explained in multilevel mixed models by a synoptic variate representing a trend towards hotter, drier summers, implying interactions between climate warming, varying discharge and fluctuations in both brown trout and salmon. Taken alongside recent data showing effects of warming on survival at sea, these data suggest that Atlantic salmon might be jeopardized by future climatic effects in both their marine and freshwater stages. Effects on nondiadromous brown trout also imply climatically mediated processes in freshwaters or their catchments. Climate projections for the United Kingdom suggest that altered summer flow and increasing summer temperatures could exacerbate losses further in these species, and we advocate management actions that combine reduced abstraction with enhanced riparian shading.     

Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea

Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well‐documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst‐case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.     

Dwarf shrub and grass vegetation resistant to long‐term experimental warming while microarthropod abundance declines on the Falkland Islands

Dwarf shrubs are a dominant plant type across many regions of the Earth and have hence a large impact on carbon and nutrient cycling rates. Climate change impacts on dwarf shrubs have been extensively studied in the Northern Hemisphere, and there appears to be large variability in response between ecosystem types and regions. In the Southern Hemisphere, less data are available despite dwarf shrub vegetation being a dominant feature of southern South America and mountainous regions of the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we present the response of an Empetrum rubrum dwarf shrub and a Poa grass community to 12 years of experimental climate manipulation achieved using open top chambers on the Falkland Islands, a cold temperate island group in the South Atlantic. The dwarf shrub and grass vegetation did not change significantly in cover, biomass or species richness over the 12 years period in response to climate warming scenarios of up to 1°C reflecting annual warming levels predicted in this region for the coming decades. The soil microarthropod community, however, responded with declines in abundance (37%) under warming conditions in the grass community, but no such changes were observed in the dwarf shrub community. Overall, our data indicate that dwarf shrub communities are resistant to the levels of climate warming predicted over the coming decades in the southern South America region and will, therefore, remain a dominant driver of local ecosystem properties.     

Empirical relationships among resilience indicators on Micronesian reefs

A process-orientated understanding of ecosystems usually starts with an exploratory analysis of empirical relationships among potential drivers and state variables. While relationships among herbivory, algal cover, and coral recruitment, have been explored in the Caribbean, the nature of such relationships in the Pacific appears to be variable or unclear. Here, we examine potential drivers structuring the benthos and herbivorous fish assemblages of outer-shelf reefs in Micronesia (Palau, Guam and Pohnpei). Surveys were stratified by wave exposure and protection from fishing. High biomass of most herbivores was favoured by high wave exposure. High abundance of large-bodied scarids was associated with low turf abundance, high coral cover, and marine reserves. The remaining herbivores were more abundant in reefs with low coral cover, possibly because space and hence food limitation occur in high-coral-cover reefs. Rugosity had no detectable effect on herbivorous fish abundance once differences in exposure and coral cover were accounted for. At identical depths, high wave exposure was associated with greater volumes (cover × canopy height) of macroalgae and algal turfs, which most likely resulted from high primary productivity driven by flow. In exposed areas, macroalgal cover declined as the acanthurid biomass increased. The volume of algal turfs was negatively associated with coral cover and herbivore biomass. In turn, high coral cover and herbivore biomass are likely to intensify grazing. The density of juvenile corals was variable where macroalgal cover was low but was confined to lower densities where macroalgal cover was high. High coral cover and density of juvenile corals were favoured in sheltered habitats. While a weak positive relationship was found between scarid biomass and juvenile coral density, we hypothesise that high scarid densities may hinder juvenile density through increased corallivory. New hypotheses emerged that will help clarify the role of acanthurids, wave exposure, and corallivory in driving the recovery of Pacific coral communities.     

Uncommon southwest swells trigger sea urchin disease outbreaks in Eastern Atlantic archipelagos

Recurrent sea urchin mass mortality has recently affected eastern Atlantic populations of the barren‐forming sea urchin Diadema africanum. This new episode of die‐off affords the opportunity to determine common meteorological and oceanographic conditions that may promote disease outbreaks. The population dynamics of this sea urchin species are well known—urchin barrens have persisted for many decades along most of the coastlines off the archipelagos of Madeira, Selvages, and the Canary Islands, where they limit macroalgae biomass growth. However, this new and explosive mortality event decimated the sea urchin population by 93% on Tenerife and La Palma Islands. Two severe episodes of southwestern rough sea that led to winter storms, in February 2010 (Xynthia) and February 2018 (Emma), preceded both mass mortality events. The autumn and winter months of those years were anomalous and characterized by swells with an average wave height above 2 m that hit the south and southwest sides of the islands. The amoeba Paramoeba brachiphila was the only pathogen isolated this time from the moribund and dead sea urchins, suggesting that the amoeba was the primary cause of the mortality. This new sea urchin die‐off event supports the “killer‐storm” hypothesis that has been already described for western Atlantic coasts. These anomalous southwest storms during winters generate pronounced underwater sediment movement and large‐scale vertical mixing, detected in local tide gauge, which may promote paramoebiasis. This study presents valuable insights about climate‐mediated changes in disease frequency and its impacts on the future of coastal marine ecosystems in the Atlantic.     

A common thermal niche among geographically diverse populations of the widely distributed tree species Eucalyptus tereticornis: No evidence for adaptation to climate‐of‐origin

Impacts of climate warming depend on the degree to which plants are constrained by adaptation to their climate‐of‐origin or exhibit broad climatic suitability. We grew cool‐origin, central and warm‐origin provenances of Eucalyptus tereticornis in an array of common temperature environments from 18 to 35.5°C to determine if this widely distributed tree species consists of geographically contrasting provenances with differentiated and narrow thermal niches, or if provenances share a common thermal niche. The temperature responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and growth were equivalent across the three provenances, reflecting a common thermal niche despite a 2,200 km geographic distance and 13°C difference in mean annual temperature at seed origin. The temperature dependence of growth was primarily mediated by changes in leaf area per unit plant mass, photosynthesis, and whole‐plant respiration. Thermal acclimation of leaf, stem, and root respiration moderated the increase in respiration with temperature, but acclimation was constrained at high temperatures. We conclude that this species consists of provenances that are not differentiated in their thermal responses, thus rejecting our hypothesis of adaptation to climate‐of‐origin and suggesting a shared thermal niche. In addition, growth declines with warming above the temperature optima were driven by reductions in whole‐plant leaf area and increased respiratory carbon losses. The impacts of climate warming will nonetheless vary across the geographic range of this and other such species, depending primarily on each provenance's climate position on the temperature response curves for photosynthesis, respiration, and growth.     

Paleoclimatic evolution as the main driver of current genomic diversity in the widespread and polymorphic Neotropical songbird Arremon taciturnus

Several factors have been proposed as drivers of species diversification in the Neotropics, including environmental heterogeneity, the development of drainage systems and historical changes in forest distribution due to climatic oscillations. Here, we investigate which drivers contributed to the evolutionary history and current patterns of diversity of a polymorphic songbird (Arremon taciturnus) that is widely distributed in Amazonian and Atlantic forests as well as in Cerrado gallery and seasonally‐dry forests. We use genomic, phenotypic and habitat heterogeneity data coupled with climatic niche modelling. Results suggest the evolutionary history of the species is mainly related to paleoclimatic changes, although changes in the strength of the Amazon river as a barrier to dispersal, current habitat heterogeneity and geographic distance were also relevant. We propose an ancestral distribution in the Guyana Shield, and recent colonization of areas south of the Amazon river at ~380 to 166 kya, and expansion of the distribution to southern Amazonia, Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest. Since then, populations south of the Amazon River have been subjected to cycles of isolation and possibly secondary contact due to climatic changes that affected habitat heterogeneity and population connectivity. Most Amazonian rivers are not associated with long lasting isolation of populations, but some might act as secondary barriers, susceptible to crossing under specific climatic conditions. Morphological variation, while stable in some parts of the distribution, is not a reliable indicator of genetic structure or phylogenetic relationships.     

The capacity to cope with climate warming declines from temperate to tropical latitudes in two widely distributed Eucalyptus species

As rapid climate warming creates a mismatch between forest trees and their home environment, the ability of trees to cope with warming depends on their capacity to physiologically adjust to higher temperatures. In widespread species, individual trees in cooler home climates are hypothesized to more successfully acclimate to warming than their counterparts in warmer climates that may approach thermal limits. We tested this prediction with a climate‐shift experiment in widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis using provenances originating along a ~2500 km latitudinal transect (15.5–38.0°S) in eastern Australia. We grew 21 provenances in conditions approximating summer temperatures at seed origin and warmed temperatures (+3.5 °C) using a series of climate‐controlled glasshouse bays. The effects of +3.5 °C warming strongly depended on home climate. Cool‐origin provenances responded to warming through an increase in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to enhanced growth of 20–60%. Warm‐origin provenances, however, responded to warming through a reduction in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to reduced growth of approximately 10%. These results suggest that there is predictable intraspecific variation in the capacity of trees to respond to warming; cool‐origin taxa are likely to benefit from warming, while warm‐origin taxa may be negatively affected.     

Distributional range shifts of Western Atlantic benthic Sargassum species (Fucales,Phaeophyceae) under future climate change scenarios

Climate change is altering the world’s marine biota, in particular, their geographic distribution. Sargassum species are foundation species that play critical ecological roles in tropical benthic communities, providing food, habitat heterogeneity and shelter for a wide range of marine organisms. To understand how future changes in abiotic variables could affect the distribution of Sargassum species along the Western Atlantic Ocean, we performed Ecological Niche Models (ENM) for 12 benthic Sargassum species. We projected present and future habitat suitability distributions under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 IPCC scenarios. We fit ENM and created ensembles from different algorithms. Our results predict changes in species latitudinal range (niche suitability) in the order of 0.5˚ to 8.1˚ northward, and 0˚ to 5.5˚ southward. Six species are likely to reduce their suitability area from 10% to 80%, while other six species are likely to expand their suitability area from 4% to 168%. Overall, changes in suitability area and latitudinal ranges will increase at larger latitudes for most species while suitability areas will decrease at lower latitudes for half of the species. This pattern is consistent with the expected tropicalization of temperate latitudes following global warming. Such changes can produce considerable losses in ecosystem services maintained by healthy Sargassum beds, particularly at lower latitudes. Our findings highlight the need to improve Sargassum conservation policies and management strategies to avoid the negative effects caused by losses in Sargassum forests.     

Warming increases plant biomass and reduces diversity across continents,latitudes, and species migration scenarios in experimental wetland communities

Atmospheric warming may influence plant productivity and diversity and induce poleward migration of species, altering communities across latitudes. Complicating the picture is that communities from different continents deviate in evolutionary histories, which may modify responses to warming and migration. We used experimental wetland plant communities grown from seed banks as model systems to determine whether effects of warming on biomass production and species richness are consistent across continents, latitudes, and migration scenarios. We collected soil samples from each of three tidal freshwater marshes in estuaries at three latitudes (north, middle, south) on the Atlantic coasts of Europe and North America. In one experiment, we exposed soil seed bank communities from each latitude and continent to ambient and elevated (+2.8 °C) temperatures in the greenhouse. In a second experiment, soil samples were mixed either within each estuary (limited migration) or among estuaries from different latitudes in each continent (complete migration). Seed bank communities of these migration scenarios were also exposed to ambient and elevated temperatures and contrasted with a no‐migration treatment. In the first experiment, warming overall increased biomass (+16%) and decreased species richness (?14%) across latitudes in Europe and North America. Species richness and evenness of south‐latitude communities were less affected by warming than those of middle and north latitudes. In the second experiment, warming also stimulated biomass and lowered species richness. In addition, complete migration led to increased species richness (+60% in North America, + 100% in Europe), but this higher diversity did not translate into increased biomass. Species responded idiosyncratically to warming, but Lythrum salicaria and Bidens sp. increased significantly in response to warming in both continents. These results reveal for the first time consistent impacts of warming on biomass and species richness for temperate wetland plant communities across continents, latitudes, and migration scenarios.     

Synergistic and antagonistic effects of land use and non‐native species on community responses to climate change

Climate change, land‐use change and introductions of non‐native species are key determinants of biodiversity change worldwide. However, the extent to which anthropogenic drivers of environmental change interact to affect biological communities is largely unknown, especially over longer time periods. Here, we show that plant community composition in 996 Swedish landscapes has consistently shifted to reflect the warmer and wetter climate that the region has experienced during the second half of the 20th century. Using community climatic indices, which reflect the average climatic associations of the species within each landscape at each time period, we found that species compositions in 74% of landscapes now have a higher representation of warm‐associated species than they did previously, while 84% of landscapes now host more species associated with higher levels of precipitation. In addition to a warmer and wetter climate, there have also been large shifts in land use across the region, while the fraction of non‐native species has increased in the majority of landscapes. Climatic warming at the landscape level appeared to favour the colonization of warm‐associated species, while also potentially driving losses in cool‐associated species. However, the resulting increases in community thermal means were apparently buffered by landscape simplification (reduction in habitat heterogeneity within landscapes) in the form of increased forest cover. Increases in non‐native species, which generally originate from warmer climates than Sweden, were a strong driver of community‐level warming. In terms of precipitation, both landscape simplification and increases in non‐natives appeared to favour species associated with drier climatic conditions, to some extent counteracting the climate‐driven shift towards wetter communities. Anthropogenic drivers can act both synergistically and antagonistically to determine trajectories of change in biological communities over time. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple drivers of global change when trying to understand, manage and predict biodiversity in the future.     

Impacts of a spring heat wave on canopy processes in a northern hardwood forest

Heat wave frequency, duration, and intensity are predicted to increase with global warming, but the potential impacts of short‐term high temperature events on forest functioning remain virtually unstudied. We examined canopy processes in a forest in Central Ontario following 3 days of record‐setting high temperatures (31–33 °C) that coincided with the peak in leaf expansion of dominant trees in late May 2010. Leaf area dynamics, leaf morphology, and leaf‐level gas‐exchange were compared to data from prior years of sampling (2002–2008) at the same site, focusing on Acer saccharum Marsh., the dominant tree in the region. Extensive shedding of partially expanded leaves was observed immediately following high temperature days, with A. saccharum losing ca. 25% of total leaf production but subsequently producing an unusual second flush of neoformed leaves. Both leaf losses and subsequent reflushing were highest in the upper canopy; however, retained preformed leaves and neoformed leaves showed reduced size, resulting in an overall decline in end‐of‐season leaf area index of 64% in A. saccharum, and 16% in the entire forest. Saplings showed lower leaf losses, but also a lower capacity to reflush relative to mature trees. Both surviving preformed and neoformed leaves had severely depressed photosynthetic capacity early in the summer of 2010, but largely regained photosynthetic competence by the end of the growing season. These results indicate that even short‐term heat waves can have severe impacts in northern forests, and suggest a particular vulnerability to high temperatures during the spring period of leaf expansion in temperate deciduous forests.