Nutrient reduction and climate change cause a potential shift from pelagic to benthic pathways in a eutrophic marine ecosystem

The degree to which marine ecosystems may support the pelagic or benthic food chain has been shown to vary across natural and anthropogenic gradients for e.g., in temperature and nutrient availability. Moreover, such external forcing may not only affect the flux of organic matter but could trigger large and abrupt changes, i.e., trophic cascades and ecological regime shifts, which once having occurred may prove potentially irreversible. In this study, we investigate the state and regulatory pathways of the Kattegat; a eutrophied and heavily exploited marine ecosystem, specifically testing for the occurrence of regime shifts and the relative importance of multiple drivers, e.g., climate change, eutrophication and commercial fishing on ecosystem dynamics and trophic pathways. Using multivariate statistics and nonlinear regression on a comprehensive data set, covering abiotic factors and biotic variables across all trophic levels, we here propose a potential regime shift from pelagic to benthic regulatory pathways; a possible first sign of recovery from eutrophication likely triggered by drastic nutrient reductions (involving both nitrogen and phosphorus), in combination with climate‐driven changes in local environmental conditions (e.g., temperature and oxygen concentrations).     

Depth‐specific responses of a chironomid assemblage to contrasting anthropogenic pressures: a palaeolimnological perspective from the last 150 years

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Adding climate change to the mix: responses of aquatic ectotherms to the combined effects of eutrophication and warming

The threat of excessive nutrient enrichment, or eutrophication, is intensifying across the globe as climate change progresses, presenting a major management challenge. Alterations in precipitation patterns and increases in temperature are increasing nutrient loadings in aquatic habitats and creating conditions that promote the proliferation of cyanobacterial blooms. The exacerbating effects of climate warming on eutrophication are well established, but we lack an in-depth understanding of how aquatic ectotherms respond to eutrophication and warming in tandem. Here, I provide a brief overview and critique of studies exploring the cumulative impacts of eutrophication and warming on aquatic ectotherms, and provide forward direction using mechanistically focused, multi-threat experiments to disentangle complex interactions. Evidence to date suggests that rapid warming will exacerbate the negative effects of eutrophication on aquatic ectotherms, but gradual warming will induce physiological remodelling that provides protection against nutrients and hypoxia. Moving forward, research will benefit from a greater focus on unveiling cause and effect mechanisms behind interactions and designing treatments that better mimic threat dynamics in nature. This approach will enable robust predictions of species responses to ongoing eutrophication and climate warming and enable the integration of climate warming into eutrophication management policies.     

The future of South East Asian rainforests in a changing landscape and climate

With a focus on the Danum Valley area of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, this special issue has as its theme the future of tropical rainforests in a changing landscape and climate. The global environmental context to the issue is briefly given before the contents and rationale of the issue are summarized. Most of the papers are based on research carried out as part of the Royal Society South East Asia Rainforest Research Programme. The issue is divided into five sections: (i) the historical land-use and land management context; (ii) implications of land-use change for atmospheric chemistry and climate change; (iii) impacts of logging, forest fragmentation (particularly within an oil palm plantation landscape) and forest restoration on ecosystems and their functioning; (iv) the response and resilience of rainforest systems to climatic and land-use change; and (v) the scientific messages and policy implications arising from the research findings presented in the issue.     

Temperature tracking by North Sea benthic invertebrates in response to climate change

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity and distributions shifts are one of the most significant threats to global warming, but the extent to which these shifts keep pace with a changing climate is yet uncertain. Understanding the factors governing range shifts is crucial for conservation management to anticipate patterns of biodiversity distribution under future anthropogenic climate change. Soft‐sediment invertebrates are a key faunal group because of their role in marine biogeochemistry and as a food source for commercial fish species. However, little information exists on their response to climate change. Here, we evaluate changes in the distribution of 65 North Sea benthic invertebrate species between 1986 and 2000 by examining their geographic, bathymetric and thermal niche shifts and test whether species are tracking their thermal niche as defined by minimum, mean or maximum sea bottom (SBT) and surface (SST) temperatures. Temperatures increased in the whole North Sea with many benthic invertebrates showing north‐westerly range shifts (leading/trailing edges as well as distribution centroids) and deepening. Nevertheless, distribution shifts for most species (3.8–7.3 km yr^?1 interquantile range) lagged behind shifts in both SBT and SST (mean 8.1 km yr^?1), resulting in many species experiencing increasing temperatures. The velocity of climate change (VoCC) of mean SST accurately predicted both the direction and magnitude of distribution centroid shifts, while maximum SST did the same for contraction of the trailing edge. The VoCC of SBT was not a good predictor of range shifts. No good predictor of expansions of the leading edge was found. Our results show that invertebrates need to shift at different rates and directions to track the climate velocities of different temperature measures, and are therefore lagging behind most temperature measures. If these species cannot withstand a change in thermal habitat, this could ultimately lead to a drop in benthic biodiversity.     

Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.     

Long‐term nitrogen additions increase likelihood of climate stress and affect recovery from wildfire in a lowland heath

Increases in the emissions and associated atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N) have the potential to cause significant changes to the structure and function of N‐limited ecosystems. Here, we present the results of a long‐term (13 year) experiment assessing the impacts of N addition (30 kg ha^?1 yr^?1) on a UK lowland heathland under a wide range of environmental conditions, including the occurrence of prolonged natural drought episodes and a severe summer fire. Our findings indicate that elevated N deposition results in large, persistent effects on Calluna growth, phenology and chemistry, severe suppression of understorey lichen flora and changes in soil biogeochemistry. Growing season rainfall was found to be a strong driver of inter‐annual variation in Calluna growth and, although interactions between N and rainfall for shoot growth were not significant until the later phase of the experiment, N addition exacerbated the extent of drought injury to Calluna shoots following naturally occurring droughts in 2003 and 2009. Following a severe wildfire at the experimental site in 2006, heathland regeneration dynamics were significantly affected by N, with a greater abundance of pioneering moss species and suppression of the lichen flora in plots receiving N additions. Significant interactions between climate and N were also apparent post fire, with the characteristic stimulation in Calluna growth in +N plots suppressed during dry years. Carbon (C) and N budgets demonstrate large increases in both above‐ and below‐ground stocks of these elements in N‐treated plots prior to the fire, despite higher levels of soil microbial activity and organic matter turnover. Although much of the organic material was removed during the fire, pre‐existing treatment differences were still evident following the burn. Post fire accumulation of below‐ground C and N stocks was increased rapidly in N‐treated plots, highlighting the role of N deposition in ecosystem C sequestration.     

Influence of simulated climate change and eutrophication on three‐spined stickleback populations: a large scale mesocosm experiment

1. Shallow lakes and their ectothermic inhabitants are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climatic warming. These impacts are likely to depend on nutrient loading, especially if the combination of warming and eutrophication leads to severe hypoxia. 2. To investigate effects of realistic warming and nutrient loading on a fish species with high tolerance of warming and hypoxia, we observed population changes and timing of reproduction of three‐spined sticklebacks in 24 outdoor shallow freshwater ecosystems with combinations of temperature (ambient and ambient +4 °C) and three nutrient treatments over 16 months. 3. Warming reduced stickleback population biomass by 60% (population size by 76%) and nutrient‐addition reduced biomass by about 80% (population size 95%). Nutrients and warming together resulted in extinction of the stickleback populations. These losses were mainly attributed to the increased likelihood of severe hypoxia in heated and nutrient‐addition mesocosms. 4. Warming of nutrient‐rich waters can thus have dire consequences for freshwater ectotherm populations. The loss even of a hardy fish suggests a precarious future for many less tolerant species in such eutrophic systems under current climate change predictions.     

The response of benthic macroinvertebrate communities to climate change: evidence from subtropical mountain streams in Central China

Ecological effects of climate change on terrestrial and marine ecosystems are increasingly apparent but evidence from freshwater is scarce, particularly in Asia. Using data from two subtropical Central China streams, we predicted the changes of some benthic macroinvertebrate communities under various climatic scenarios. Our results show that the average annual air temperature, in the study watershed, increased significantly (P < 0.05) by 0.6 °C over the last 30 years (1978–2007), whereas the average annual water flow declined by 30.9 m³ s^–1. Based on the winter sampling of benthic macroinvertebrates at four stream locations over last six years, we observed that macroinvertebrate abundance and Margalef diversity dropped with increasing water temperatures or decreasing smoothed sea surface temperatures (SSST). The winter macroinvertebrate abundance and biodiversity declined by 11.1% and 6.8% for every 1 °C water temperature rise. In contrast, increases in future SSST by one unit would increase winter macroinvertebrate abundance and biodiversity by 38.2% and 16.0%, respectively. Although many dominant taxa were predicted to persist when water temperatures increase by 1 °C, several scarce taxa, e.g., Orthocladius clarkei and Hippeutis umbilicalis, could be at a level of potential local extinction. Our identification of these links, between climate change and stream macroinvertebrate communities, has wide implications for the conservation of mountain stream ecosystems in the upper Yangtze River under scenarios of climate change. (© 2012 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Scaling ozone responses of forest trees to the ecosystem level in a changing climate

Many uncertainties remain regarding how climate change will alter the structure and function of forest ecosystems. At the Aspen FACE experiment in northern Wisconsin, we are attempting to understand how an aspen/birch/maple forest ecosystem responds to long-term exposure to elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) and ozone (O₃), alone and in combination, from establishment onward. We examine how O₃ affects the flow of carbon through the ecosystem from the leaf level through to the roots and into the soil micro-organisms in present and future atmospheric CO₂ conditions. We provide evidence of adverse effects of O₃, with or without co-occurring elevated CO₂, that cascade through the entire ecosystem impacting complex trophic interactions and food webs on all three species in the study: trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh), and sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh). Interestingly, the negative effect of O₃ on the growth of sugar maple did not become evident until 3 years into the study. The negative effect of O₃ effect was most noticeable on paper birch trees growing under elevated CO₂. Our results demonstrate the importance of long-term studies to detect subtle effects of atmospheric change and of the need for studies of interacting stresses whose responses could not be predicted by studies of single factors. In biologically complex forest ecosystems, effects at one scale can be very different from those at another scale. For scaling purposes, then, linking process with canopy level models is essential if O₃ impacts are to be accurately predicted. Finally, we describe how outputs from our long-term multispecies Aspen FACE experiment are being used to develop simple, coupled models to estimate productivity gain/loss from changing O₃.     

Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil

Enhanced release of CO₂ to the atmosphere from soil organic carbon as a result of increased temperatures may lead to a positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, resulting in much higher CO₂ levels and accelerated global warming. However, the magnitude of this effect is uncertain and critically dependent on how the decomposition of soil organic C (heterotrophic respiration) responds to changes in climate. Previous studies with the Hadley Centre's coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model (GCM) (HadCM3LC) used a simple, single‐pool soil carbon model to simulate the response. Here we present results from numerical simulations that use the more sophisticated ‘RothC’ multipool soil carbon model, driven with the same climate data. The results show strong similarities in the behaviour of the two models, although RothC tends to simulate slightly smaller changes in global soil carbon stocks for the same forcing. RothC simulates global soil carbon stocks decreasing by 54 Gt C by 2100 in a climate change simulation compared with an 80 Gt C decrease in HadCM3LC. The multipool carbon dynamics of RothC cause it to exhibit a slower magnitude of transient response to both increased organic carbon inputs and changes in climate. We conclude that the projection of a positive feedback between climate and carbon cycle is robust, but the magnitude of the feedback is dependent on the structure of the soil carbon model.     

Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability of three marine predators suggests a rapid decline in inter‐specific overlap under future climate change

Understanding how environmental and climate change can alter habitat overlap of marine predators has great value for the management and conservation of marine ecosystems. Here, we estimated spatiotemporal changes in habitat suitability and inter‐specific overlap among three marine predators: Baltic gray seals (Halichoerus grypus), harbor seals (Phoca vitulina), and harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) under contemporary and future conditions. Location data (>200 tagged individuals) were collected in the southwestern region of the Baltic Sea; one of the fastest‐warming semi‐enclosed seas in the world. We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to estimate changes in total area size and overlap of species‐specific habitat suitability between 1997–2020 and 2091–2100. Predictor variables included environmental and climate‐sensitive oceanographic conditions in the area. Sea‐level rise, sea surface temperature, and salinity data were taken from representative concentration pathways [RCPs] scenarios 6.0 and 8.5 to forecast potential climate change effects. Model output suggested that habitat suitability of Baltic gray seals will decline over space and time, driven by changes in sea surface salinity and a loss of currently available haulout sites following sea‐level rise in the future. A similar, although weaker, effect was observed for harbor seals, while suitability of habitat for harbor porpoises was predicted to increase slightly over space and time. Inter‐specific overlap in highly suitable habitats was also predicted to increase slightly under RCP scenario 6.0 when compared to contemporary conditions, but to disappear under RCP scenario 8.5. Our study suggests that marine predators in the southwestern Baltic Sea may respond differently to future climatic conditions, leading to divergent shifts in habitat suitability that are likely to decrease inter‐specific overlap over time and space. We conclude that climate change can lead to a marked redistribution of area use by marine predators in the region, which may influence local food‐web dynamics and ecosystem functioning.     

Long‐term temporal and spatial trends in eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea

Much of the Baltic Sea is currently classified as ‘affected by eutrophication’. The causes for this are twofold. First, current levels of nutrient inputs (nitrogen and phosphorus) from human activities exceed the natural processing capacity with an accumulation of nutrients in the Baltic Sea over the last 50–100 years. Secondly, the Baltic Sea is naturally susceptible to nutrient enrichment due to a combination of long retention times and stratification restricting ventilation of deep waters. Here, based on a unique data set collated from research activities and long‐term monitoring programs, we report on the temporal and spatial trends of eutrophication status for the open Baltic Sea over a 112‐year period using the HELCOM Eutrophication Assessment Tool (HEAT 3.0). Further, we analyse variation in the confidence of the eutrophication status assessment based on a systematic quantitative approach using coefficients of variation in the observations. The classifications in our assessment indicate that the first signs of eutrophication emerged in the mid‐1950s and the central parts of the Baltic Sea changed from being unaffected by eutrophication to being affected. We document improvements in eutrophication status that are direct consequences of long‐term efforts to reduce the inputs of nutrients. The reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus loads have led to large‐scale alleviation of eutrophication and to a healthier Baltic Sea. Reduced confidence in our assessment is seen more recently due to reductions in the scope of monitoring programs. Our study sets a baseline for implementation of the ecosystem‐based management strategies and policies currently in place including the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directives and the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan.     

Microbial models with data‐driven parameters predict stronger soil carbon responses to climate change

Long‐term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities will respond. To date, the role of microbes in SOC dynamics has been implicitly described by decay rate constants in most conventional global carbon cycle models. Explicitly including microbial biomass dynamics into C cycle model formulations has shown potential to improve model predictive performance when assessed against global SOC databases. This study aimed to data‐constrained parameters of two soil microbial models, evaluate the improvements in performance of those calibrated models in predicting contemporary carbon stocks, and compare the SOC responses to climate change and their uncertainties between microbial and conventional models. Microbial models with calibrated parameters explained 51% of variability in the observed total SOC, whereas a calibrated conventional model explained 41%. The microbial models, when forced with climate and soil carbon input predictions from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), produced stronger soil C responses to 95 years of climate change than any of the 11 CMIP5 models. The calibrated microbial models predicted between 8% (2‐pool model) and 11% (4‐pool model) soil C losses compared with CMIP5 model projections which ranged from a 7% loss to a 22.6% gain. Lastly, we observed unrealistic oscillatory SOC dynamics in the 2‐pool microbial model. The 4‐pool model also produced oscillations, but they were less prominent and could be avoided, depending on the parameter values.     

The benthic macroinvertebrate community in a coastal sand dune lake relative to habitat and changing lake levels

The benthic macroinvertebrate community (BMI) in a freshwater coastal dune lake without a surface outlet was investigated in May and October, 1986. Fifty-three invertebrate taxa were identified from Carter Lake, including three euryhaline crustacean species (Corophium spinicorne, Gnorimosphaeroma oregonensis lutea, and Acanthomysis awatchensis). Corophium spinicorne dominated the BMI communities of the littoral zones and sphaeriid clams dominated the deepwater community.The lake level dropped about 2.5 m between April and October. Based upon this decline, the lake bottom was divided into four major habitats: a sandy temporarily submerged littoral zone (A); a sandy submerged littoral zone (B); and mid-depth zone of mixed mud and sand and the macrophyte, Nitella (C); and a deep zone (D) with soft mud. The average density of BMI was highest in the littoral zones (A and B) in May and in zone B in October (zone A was dry). The lowest density occurred in zone D. In May, BMI biomass was highest in the littoral zones, but the biomass was highest in the mid-depth zone in October. The mid-depth zone in October. The mid-depth zone had the most diverse community.The two most abundant species in the temporarily submerged area, Corophium spinicorne and Juga plicifera, were found in greater numbers deeper in the lake after the water level dropped, suggesting migration by these species in response to changing water levels.     

Carbon stock and its responses to climate change in Central Asia

Central Asia has a land area of 5.6 × 10⁶ km² and contains 80–90% of the world's temperate deserts. Yet it is one of the least characterized areas in the estimation of the global carbon (C) stock/balance. This study assessed the sizes and spatiotemporal patterns of C pools in Central Asia using both inventory (based on 353 biomass and 284 soil samples) and process‐based modeling approaches. The results showed that the C stock in Central Asia was 31.34–34.16 Pg in the top 1‐m soil with another 10.42–11.43 Pg stored in deep soil (1–3 m) of the temperate deserts. They amounted to 18–24% of the global C stock in deserts and dry shrublands. The C stock was comparable to that of the neighboring regions in Eurasia or major drylands around the world (e.g. Australia). However, 90% of Central Asia C pool was stored in soil, and the fraction was much higher than in other regions. Compared to hot deserts of the world, the temperate deserts in Central Asia had relatively high soil organic carbon density. The C stock in Central Asia is under threat from dramatic climate change. During a decadal drought between 1998 and 2008, which was possibly related to protracted La Niña episodes, the dryland lost approximately 0.46 Pg C from 1979 to 2011. The largest C losses were found in northern Kazakhstan, where annual precipitation declined at a rate of 90 mm decade^?1. The regional C dynamics were mainly determined by changes in the vegetation C pool, and the SOC pool was stable due to the balance between reduced plant‐derived C influx and inhibited respiration.     

The role of phenotypic plasticity in responses of hunted thinhorn sheep ram horn growth to changing climate conditions

When phenotypic change occurs over time in wildlife populations, it can be difficult to determine to what degree it is because of genetic effects or phenotypic plasticity. Here, we assess phenotypic changes over time in horn length and volume of thinhorn sheep (Ovis dalli) rams from Yukon Territory, Canada. We considered 42 years of horn growth from over 50 000 growth measurements in over 8000 individuals. We found that weather explained a large proportion of the annual fluctuation in horn growth, being particularly sensitive to spring weather. Only 2.5% of variance in horn length growth could be explained by an individual effect, and thus any genetic changes over the time period could only have had a small effect on phenotypes. Our findings allow insight into the capacity for horn morphology to react to selection pressures and demonstrate the overall importance of climate in determining growth.     

Interactive climate factors restrict future increases in spring productivity of temperate and boreal trees

Climate warming is currently advancing spring leaf‐out of temperate and boreal trees, enhancing net primary productivity (NPP) of forests. However, it remains unclear whether this trend will continue, preventing for accurate projections of ecosystem functioning and climate feedbacks. Several ecophysiological mechanisms have been proposed to regulate the timing of leaf emergence in response to changing environmental cues, but the relative importance of those mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we use 727,401 direct phenological observations of common European forest trees to examine the dominant controls on leaf‐out. Using the emerging mechanisms, we forecast future trajectories of spring arrival and evaluate the consequences for forest carbon dynamics. By representing hypothesized relationships with autumn temperature, winter chilling, and the timing of spring onset, we accurately predicted reductions in the advance of leaf‐out. There was a strong consensus between our empirical model and existing process‐based models, revealing that the advance in leaf‐out will not exceed 2 weeks over the rest of the century. We further estimate that, under a ‘business‐as‐usual’ climate scenario, earlier spring arrival will enhance NPP of temperate and boreal forests by ~0.2 Gt per year at the end of the century. In contrast, previous estimates based on a simple degree‐day model range around 0.8 Gt. As such, the expected NPP is drastically reduced in our updated model relative to previous estimates—by a total of ~25 Gt over the rest of the century. These findings reveal important environmental constraints on the productivity of broad‐leaved deciduous trees and highlight that shifting spring phenology is unlikely to slow the rate of warming by offsetting anthropogenic carbon emissions.     

Thermal and hydrologic responses to climate change predict marked alterations in boreal stream invertebrate assemblages

Air temperature at the northernmost latitudes is predicted to increase steeply and precipitation to become more variable by the end of the 21st century, resulting in altered thermal and hydrological regimes. We applied five climate scenarios to predict the future (2070–2100) benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages at 239 near‐pristine sites across Finland (ca. 1200 km latitudinal span). We used a multitaxon distribution model with air temperature and modeled daily flow as predictors. As expected, projected air temperature increased the most in northernmost Finland. Predicted taxonomic richness also increased the most in northern Finland, congruent with the predicted northwards shift of many species’ distributions. Compositional changes were predicted to be high even without changes in richness, suggesting that species replacement may be the main mechanism causing climate‐induced changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Northern streams were predicted to lose much of the seasonality of their flow regimes, causing potentially marked changes in stream benthic assemblages. Sites with the highest loss of seasonality were predicted to support future assemblages that deviate most in compositional similarity from the present‐day assemblages. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were also predicted to change more in headwaters than in larger streams, as headwaters were particularly sensitive to changes in flow patterns. Our results emphasize the importance of focusing protection and mitigation on headwater streams with high‐flow seasonality because of their vulnerability to climate change.     

Reorganization of a large marine ecosystem due to atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure: a discontinuous regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea

Marine ecosystems such as the Baltic Sea are currently under strong atmospheric and anthropogenic pressure. Besides natural and human-induced changes in climate, major anthropogenic drivers such as overfishing and anthropogenic eutrophication are significantly affecting ecosystem structure and function. Recently, studies demonstrated the existence of alternative stable states in various terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. These so-called ecosystem regime shifts have been explained mainly as a result of multiple causes, e.g. climatic regime shifts, overexploitation or a combination of both. The occurrence of ecosystem regime shifts has important management implications, as they can cause significant losses of ecological and economic resources. Because of hysteresis in ecosystem responses, restoring regimes considered as favourable may require drastic and expensive management actions. Also the Baltic Sea, the largest brackish water body in the world ocean, and its ecosystems are strongly affected by atmospheric and anthropogenic drivers. Here, we present results of an analysis of the state and development of the Central Baltic Sea ecosystem integrating hydroclimatic, nutrient, phyto- and zooplankton as well as fisheries data. Our analyses of 52 biotic and abiotic variables using multivariate statistics demonstrated a major reorganization of the ecosystem and identified two stable states between 1974 and 2005, separated by a transition period in 1988–1993. We show the change in Baltic ecosystem structure to have the characteristics of a discontinuous regime shift, initiated by climate-induced changes in the abiotic environment and stabilized by fisheries-induced feedback loops in the food web. Our results indicate the importance of maintaining the resilience of an ecosystem to atmospherically induced environmental change by reducing the anthropogenic impact.