Forest biodiversity in a changing climate: which logic for conservation strategies?

Climate change has direct and indirect impacts on forest ecosystems worldwide. In this context, changing site conditions and altered disturbance regimes as well as forest management responses are challenging the conservation of biodiversity in forests. Climate-induced dynamics and uncertainties related to future forest ecosystem development are calling into question current conservation strategies and concepts. Given the longevity of trees, slow development rates of forest ecosystems and slow migration rates of many forest species, the planning of adaptation measures in response to climate change are especially difficult though highly important for forest biodiversity conservation. This paper introduces a special issue with eight contributions which deal with a variety of aspects of forest biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change. More specifically, the papers address direct impacts of climate change on forest biodiversity, adaptation measures for forest and conservation management, as well as resulting challenges for conservation strategies and concepts. In conclusion, adaptation measures that enhance diversity and provide different options for future action, thereby maintaining ecosystems’ resilience, as well as conservation management operating on a landscape level, are promoted as being beneficial for coping with uncertainties related to climate change. Adaptive management, which constantly reviews conservation goals and measures, and which takes into account both science-based and local ecological knowledge on climate change can be a valuable tool to inform decisions for forest biodiversity conservation.     

Agricultural biotechnology for crop improvement in a variable climate: hope or hype?

Developing crops that are better adapted to abiotic stresses is important for food production in many parts of the world today. Anticipated changes in climate and its variability, particularly extreme temperatures and changes in rainfall, are expected to make crop improvement even more crucial for food production. Here, we review two key biotechnology approaches, molecular breeding and genetic engineering, and their integration with conventional breeding to develop crops that are more tolerant of abiotic stresses. In addition to a multidisciplinary approach, we also examine some constraints that need to be overcome to realize the full potential of agricultural biotechnology for sustainable crop production to meet the demands of a projected world population of nine billion in 2050.     

Is climate warming more consequential towards poles? The phenology of Lepidoptera in Finland

The magnitude and direction of phenological shifts from climate warming could be predictably variable across the planet depending upon the nature of physiological controls on phenology, the thermal sensitivity of the developmental processes and global patterns in the climate warming. We tested this with respect to the flight phenology of adult nocturnal moths (3.33 million captures of 334 species) that were sampled at sites in southern and northern Finland during 1993–2012 (with years 2005–2012 treated as an independent model validation data set). We compared eight competing models of physiological controls on flight phenology to each species and found strong support for thermal controls of phenology in 66% of the species generations. Among species with strong thermal control of phenology in both the south and north, the average development rate was higher in northern vs. southern populations at 10 °C, but about the same at 15 and 20 °C. With a 3 °C increase in temperature (approximating A2 scenario of IPPC for 2090–2099 relative to 1980–1999) these species were predicted to advance their phenology on average by 17 (SE ± 0.3) days in the south vs. 13 (±0.4) days in the north. The higher development rates at low temperatures of poleward populations makes them less sensitive to climate warming, which opposes the tendency for stronger phenological advances in the north from greater increases in temperature.     

Study of Poaceae phenology in a Mediterranean climate. Which species contribute most to airborne pollen counts?

The present study sought to determine which of the common Poaceae species in the study area contribute most to the Poaceae pollen season curve, and to determine the phenological behaviour of the species studied. The different floral phenophases in thirty-three Poaceae species common in and around the city of Córdoba (SW Iberian Peninsula) were checked periodically over the period 2004–2006. Results showed that longer phenological ranges were recorded in the coolest and wettest year, and shorter ranges in the warmest and driest year. Moreover, ranges varied as a function of altitude: populations in lower-lying areas flowered earlier than those at higher altitudes. The results, taken in conjunction with the findings of preliminary research into potential pollen production, showed that probably only four of the Poaceae species studied—Dactylis glomerata, Lolium rigidum, Trisetaria panicea and Vulpia geniculata—were major contributors to the Poaceae airborne pollen curve.     

Flowering phenology of co-occurring Asteraceae: a matter of climate,ecological interactions,plant attributes or of evolutionary relationships among species?

We analyzed the flowering phenodynamics of 43 Asteraceae species co-occurring in natural populations of Chaco Serrano forests in central Argentina. We explored the potential influence of factors such as photoperiod and climate (variations in temperature, rainfall, and frost), animal-plant interactions (richness of floral visitors, frequency of visits), some plant attributes (plant growth form, seed dispersal mechanism), and evolutionary relationships among species on flowering phenodynamics. Cluster Analysis (CA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were the multivariate statistical methods used to analyze emerging patterns associated with these co-occurring species. Null-model analyses were used to evaluate whether flowering times are aggregated, segregated, or random. Results showed that flowering phenology was significantly correlated with the seasonal variation in temperature, photoperiod, rainfall, and frost. The multivariate statistical methods separated all the species in three groups: 1) species with short flowering time, large plant floral display, high frequency of visits by a large number of species of floral visitors, anemochorous fruits, and shrubby growth form, with a tendency to a segregated flowering pattern; 2) species with long flowering time, small plant floral display, low frequency of visits by few insect species, anemochorous fruits, and herbaceous growth form; and 3) species with long flowering time, small plant floral display, intermediate values for frequency of visits and number of species of floral visitors, seed dispersal mechanisms other than anemochory, and herbaceous growth form. In addition, all but one species belonging to early-branching tribes (tribes phylogenetically close to the root of the Asteraceae tree) were grouped together and clustered in the same region of the two-dimensional PCA ordination. All species belonging to the late-branching tribes (Asteroideae subfamily tribes) included in group 1 were separated from the other Asteroideae species in the PCA. In conclusion, it seems that climatic factors restrict the phenological period of most species, and that plant attributes and taxonomic membership are strongly related to flowering phenodynamics in this group of Asteraceae studied.     

Does the protected area network preserve bird species of conservation concern in a rapidly changing climate?

Species ranges are expected to move polewards following the changing climate, which poses novel challenges to the protected area network, particularly at northern latitudes. Here we study how well protected areas are likely to sustain populations of birds of conservation concern under a changing climate in northern Europe, in Finland. We fitted bioclimatic envelope models generated for 100 bird species to climate scenario data for the years 2051–2080 and three alternative emission scenarios in a 10-km grid system to predict changes in the species probability of occurrence. We related the projected changes in the climatic suitability to the amount of protected preferred habitat for the study species in the 10-km grid cells, and based on the cover of four main CORINE Land Cover classes in each conservation area in Finland. The probability of occurrence of all species (except marshland birds) decreased according to all scenarios, the decline being greatest in southern and smallest in northern boreal zones. This decline was slightly greater in unprotected than in protected areas for species of forests, mires and mountain habitats. The climatically suitable areas for the species were predicted to shift northwards, but the potential gain of southern species of conservation concern appears not to compensate for the loss of northern species. Thus, a representative protected area network is needed in all boreal zones. Overall, our results show that species-specific habitat preferences and habitat availability should be taken into account when assessing the efficiency of a protected area network in a changing climate.     

Is coarse woody debris in lakes a refuge or a trap for benthic invertebrates exposed to fish predation?

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Cold-temperate climate: a factor for selection of ammonia oxidizers in upland soil?

Ammonia-oxidizing bacteria in various upland soils show a rather large diversity with respect to their amoA genes (coding for a subunit of the ammonium monooxygenase). It is known that the community structure of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria in upland soils is influenced by different selective factors, such as pH, gravimetric water content, fertilizer treatment, and temperature. The question, from an ecological point of view, is whether a particular ecophysiological factor, such as temperature, could select for a particular community structure of ammonia oxidizers in upland soils that would be represented by distinct clusters of the amoA gene (AmoA cluster). Studying the literature, including recent publications and our own unpublished results, we found that AmoA clusters 3a, 3b, and 9-12 apparently exhibited no preference for either subtropical/tropical soils (i.e., warm regions) or temperate cold soils. However, AmoA clusters 1 and 4 (and perhaps cluster 2) seem to occur predominantly in soils from cold-temperate regions. Here we review the evidence for a temperature effect on the global distribution of amoA genes in warm- and cold-temperate soils.     

Is earlier spring migration of Tatarstan warblers expected under climate warming?

We analysed data on the arrival dates of four species of leaf warbler (genus Phylloscopus) collected in Tatarstan between 1957 and 2004. There was no evidence over the whole period that the warblers returned to their breeding sites significantly earlier, mainly because local temperatures for April and May, months when the majority of birds arrived from their wintering grounds, did not increase significantly. However, arrival dates of two species (Chiffchaff P. collybita and Willow warbler P.trochilus) were strongly related to local temperature in April, and that of Greenish warbler P. trochiloides to that in May. As expected, arrival dates for the three species wintering in Africa (Chiffchaff, Willow and Wood warblers P. sibilatrix) correlated positively with one another (P < 0.01 in all cases), but were not correlated with arrival dates of Greenish warbler (P > 0.5 in all cases), a species wintering in the Indian sub-continent.     

How do weather extremes affect rice productivity in a changing climate? An answer to episodic lack of sunshine

Here, we experimentally examined how an episodic lack of sunshine (ELS), as an extreme weather event, would affect rice productivity under warming with elevated [CO₂]. In 2009 and 2010, rice plants were grown at two levels of [CO₂] (ca. 390 and 650 μl l^?1) and three levels of warming (≈ambient, +1.2 °C, and +2.2/2.4 °C) in six independent temperature gradient field chambers (three each for ambient and elevated [CO₂]). At panicle initiation (PI), booting (BT), or flowering (FL), rice plants were exposed to ELS (ca. 18% of full sunlight) for 10–14 days consecutively. As expected, ELS elicited a significant reduction in aboveground biomass (AGB) and yields. However, elevated [CO₂] had the potential to relieve the ELS‐induced reduction in AGB and yield, whereas warming had the reverse effect for yields, without a significant warming × [CO₂] interaction. When ELS applied at PI, BT, and FL, the extents to which warming‐reduced yields (averaged across [CO₂] levels) ranged from 9 to 25%, 7 to 14, and 10 to 18% at +1.2 °C, and ranged from 24 to 56%, 22 to 55%, and 18 to 46% at +2.2/2.4 °C across two seasons, respectively. Meanwhile, under normal sunshine they ranged from 1 to 3% at +1.2 °C and 7 to 21% at +2.2/2.4 °C. Warming predisposed rice plants that had experienced ELS to be more sensitive to spikelet sterility and spikelet number per panicle, accounting for most of the yield reductions. These findings provide evidence that an expected warming could further exacerbate rice productivity if ELS occurs simultaneously during reproductive stages. Our results collectively suggest that it might be critically important to consider extreme events for a holistic evaluation of the potential impact of warming and [CO₂] on crop productivity, when considering changing climate.     

Are life history events of a northern breeding population of Cooper's Hawks influenced by changing climate?

Numerous studies have demonstrated earlier timing of spring migration and egg‐laying in small passerines, but documentation of such responses to recent climate change in the life histories of higher trophic feeding birds such as raptors is relatively scarce. Raptors may be particularly susceptible to possible adverse effects of climate change due to their longer generation turnover times and lower reproductive capacity, which could lead to population declines because of an inability to match reproductive timing with optimal brood rearing conditions. Conversely adaptively favorable outcomes due to the influence of changing climate may occur. In general, birds that seasonally nest earlier typically have higher reproductive output compared to conspecifics that nest later in the season. Given the strong seasonal decline in reproductive output, and the heritability of nesting phenology, it is possible that nesting seasons would (adaptively) advance over time. Recent climate warming may release prior ecological constraints on birds that depend on food availability at the time of egg production, as do various raptors including Cooper's Hawks (Accipiter cooperii). Under this scenario, productivity, especially clutch size, might increase because it is likely that this reproductive demographic may be the most immediate response to the earlier seasonal presence of food resources. We demonstrated a statistically significant shift of about 4–5 days to an earlier timing of egg‐hatching in spring across 36 years during 1980–2015 for a partially migratory population of Cooper's Hawks in Wisconsin, United States, which is consistent with a recent study that showed that Cooper's Hawks had advanced their timing of spring migration during 1979–2012. Both studies occurred in the Great Lakes region, an area that compared to global averages is experiencing earlier and increased warming particularly in the spring in Wisconsin. The nesting period did not lengthen. We suggest that the gradual shift of six consecutive generations of hawks was likely in response to recent climate change or warming. We did not detect any long‐term temporal change in average clutch or brood sizes. However, such indices of reproduction are among the highest known for the species and thus may be at their physio‐ecological maximum for this population. Our study population appears to show resilience to and does not appear to be adversely influenced by the recent rate of changing climate at this time.     

Determining the climate impact of food for use in a climate tax—design of a consistent and transparent model

The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - The aim of this study was to determine transparent food carbon footprint values for use in a climate tax, using a consistent methodology across...     

Are babies better in autumn or spring? The consequences of extending gestation in a biennially reproducing viviparous lizard

Niveoscincus microlepidotus, the southern snow skink, is a biennially reproducing alpine viviparous lizard with an extremely protracted gestation period: embryos are fully developed in autumn, but held over winter so that offspring are born in spring. The obvious benefits for offspring survival of delaying birth until spring have been demonstrated previously. To examine the consequences of deferred parturition for offspring characteristics, we compared neonates obtained in autumn by dissection with neonates born naturally in the spring. Our results demonstrate that deferral of parturition until spring represents a trade-off between key offspring characteristics (spring neonates exhibit lower growth rates, reduced sprint speed after birth, reduced condition and decreased energy reserves) and offspring size [spring neonates are heavier (wet mass) and longer (snout-vent length)]. Furthermore, when females are placed into cold experimental conditions in spring around the time of natural parturition, this species is able to defer parturition for an additional 4 weeks with no significant effect on offspring characteristics. Our results provide further evidence that flexibility in birth date provides a significant advantage to viviparous lizards living in cold climates.     

Developmental psychology: a precursor of moral judgment in human infants?

Human infants evaluate social interactions well before they can speak, and show a preference for characters that help others over characters that are not cooperative or are hindering.     

West–east contrast of phenology and climate in northern Asia revealed using a remotely sensed vegetation index

The phenology of the vegetation covering north Asia (mainly Siberia) and its spatial characterstics were investigated using remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data. The analysis used the weekly averaged NDVI over 5 years (1987-1991) using the second-generation weekly global vegetation index dataset (0.144 degrees x 0.144 degrees spatial resolution). In the seasonal NDVI cycle, three phenological events were defined for each pixel: green-up week (NDVI exceeds 0.2), maximum week, and senescence week (NDVI drops below 0.2). Generally there was a west-early/east-late gradient in the three events in north Asia. In the zonal transect between 45 degrees and 50 degrees N, the timing of green-up, maximum, and senescence near 60 degrees E (Kazakh) was about 3.4, 8.7, and 13.4 weeks earlier than near 110 degrees E (Mongolia) respectively. It has been suggested that vegetation near Kazakh only flourishes during a short period when water from snow melt is available from late spring to early summer. In Mongolia, abundant water is available for the vegetation, even in midsummer, because of precipitation. In the 50-60 degrees N zonal transect, the green-up and maximum near 40 degrees E were about 3.8 and 3.9 weeks earlier than near 115 degrees E, respectively. As for the week of senescence, there was no clear west-east trend. This west-to-east phenological gradient was related to the weekly cumulative temperature (over 0 degrees C). Weeks in which the cumalative temperature exceeded 40 degrees C and 140 degrees C had a similar west-east distribution to green-up and maximum NDVI.     

Does an extreme drought event alter the response of grassland communities to a changing climate?

Global temperatures and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are expected to both increase, but their combined effect on plant communities has been far less investigated than the single factors of global change. Moreover, drought events are expected to become more frequent and intense in the near future what might alter plant responses to the changing climate.In this study synthesised grassland communities in a current or future climate were subjected to several drought levels (0, 15, 22 and 35 days of drought). The grassland communities were grown in six sunlit, climate-controlled chambers. Three of the chambers were exposed to ambient temperature and CO₂ (current climate), while the other three were continuously warmed 3 °C above ambient temperature at 620 ppm of CO₂ (future climate).The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of drought on the response of grassland communities to a future climate. Therefore, the response to future climate was observed (1) in the absence of drought and (2) in the occurrence of an extreme drought event, both early and late in the growing season.

• (1)In the absence of drought, plant productivity was positively affected by future climate early in the growing season. Later in the growing season this effect tended to turn negative, resulting in a disappearance of the overall effect of climate at the end of the growing season.
• (2)During drought there was a stronger decrease in net CO₂ assimilation rate (A_sat) in future than in current climate due to stronger stomatal closure. Consistently, the beneficial biomass response to future climate stagnated during drought. At the end of the season, after a period of recovery, there was no effect of climate on plant productivity. As in the absence of drought, plant productivity was not affected by climate at the end of the growing season. Hence, the occurrence of an extreme drought event during the growing season did not alter the overall response of plant productivity to a future climate.

     

Vriesea friburgensis: A natural trap or a nurse plant in coastal sand dunes?

Positive interactions between plants play a fundamental role in environments with extreme conditions, such as coastal sand dunes, where the establishment of many species is limited by high temperature, and low availability of water and nutrients in the soil. The ability to store water and enrich the soil with nutrients characterizes bromeliads as potential nurse plants for other species. This study aimed to analyze the potential of the bromeliad Vriesea friburgensis to act as a nurse plant, and to compare this interaction in coastal dunes in herbaceous versus scrub vegetation. The study was performed on Santa Catarina Island in Brazil. Juveniles of other species associated with V. friburgensis were collected within and under bromeliad tanks and on adjacent plots beside each bromeliad. The abundance, species richness and height of juveniles were recorded. We found that abundance and richness of Vf‐associated juveniles were lower than those Vf‐not associated, in herbaceous vegetation (negative interaction). However, the height of some shrubs species, like Eupatorium casarettoi and Tibouchina urvilleana, was greater when Vf‐associated (positive interaction). In scrub vegetation, the abundance and richness of juveniles were not significantly affected by V. friburgensis presence (neutral interaction). However, the height of some shrubs and trees species, like Clusia criuva, Eugenia catharinae, Myrsine parvifolia and Ocotea pulchella, was greater when Vf‐associated. Species composition associated with V. friburgensis differed from the assemblage in adjacent plots, indicating that some species interact more with nurse plants, whereas others fail to develop when associated with this bromeliad; the difference between groups in species composition was less evident in scrub vegetation areas. Clusia criuva was considered an indicator species for Vf‐associated juveniles in both vegetation types. Despite the fact that these tank bromeliads do not function as nurse plants for some species, there are others that seem to be favoured by this interaction.