Effects of climate‐driven primary production change on marine food webs: implications for fisheries and conservation

Climate change is altering the rate and distribution of primary production in the world's oceans. Primary production is critical to maintaining biodiversity and supporting fishery catches, but predicting the response of populations to primary production change is complicated by predation and competition interactions. We simulated the effects of change in primary production on diverse marine ecosystems across a wide latitudinal range in Australia using the marine food web model Ecosim. We link models of primary production of lower trophic levels (phytoplankton and benthic producers) under climate change with Ecosim to predict changes in fishery catch, fishery value, biomass of animals of conservation interest, and indicators of community composition. Under a plausible climate change scenario, primary production will increase around Australia and generally this benefits fisheries catch and value and leads to increased biomass of threatened marine animals such as turtles and sharks. However, community composition is not strongly affected. Sensitivity analyses indicate overall positive linear responses of functional groups to primary production change. Responses are robust to the ecosystem type and the complexity of the model used. However, model formulations with more complex predation and competition interactions can reverse the expected responses for some species, resulting in catch declines for some fished species and localized declines of turtle and marine mammal populations under primary productivity increases. We conclude that climate‐driven primary production change needs to be considered by marine ecosystem managers and more specifically, that production increases can simultaneously benefit fisheries and conservation. Greater focus on incorporating predation and competition interactions into models will significantly improve the ability to identify species and industries most at risk from climate change.     

Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists

Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning.     

Rescaling the trophic structure of marine food webs

Measures of trophic position (TP) are critical for understanding food web interactions and human‐mediated ecosystem disturbance. Nitrogen stable isotopes (δ¹⁵N) provide a powerful tool to estimate TP but are limited by a pragmatic assumption that isotope discrimination is constant (change in δ¹⁵N between predator and prey, Δ¹⁵N = 3.4‰), resulting in an additive framework that omits known Δ¹⁵N variation. Through meta‐analysis, we determine narrowing discrimination from an empirical linear relationship between experimental Δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁵N values of prey consumed. The resulting scaled Δ¹⁵N framework estimated reliable TPs of zooplanktivores to tertiary piscivores congruent with known feeding relationships that radically alters the conventional structure of marine food webs. Apex predator TP estimates were markedly higher than currently assumed by whole‐ecosystem models, indicating perceived food webs have been truncated and species‐interactions over simplified. The scaled Δ¹⁵N framework will greatly improve the accuracy of trophic estimates widely used in ecosystem‐based management.     

Trophic complementarity drives the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationship in food webs

The biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationship is central in community ecology. Its drivers in competitive systems (sampling effect and functional complementarity) are intuitive and elegant, but we lack an integrative understanding of these drivers in complex ecosystems. Because networks encompass two key components of the BEF relationship (species richness and biomass flow), they provide a key to identify these drivers, assuming that we have a meaningful measure of functional complementarity. In a network, diversity can be defined by species richness, the number of trophic levels, but perhaps more importantly, the diversity of interactions. In this paper, we define the concept of trophic complementarity (TC), which emerges through exploitative and apparent competition processes, and study its contribution to ecosystem functioning. Using a model of trophic community dynamics, we show that TC predicts various measures of ecosystem functioning, and generate a range of testable predictions. We find that, in addition to the number of species, the structure of their interactions needs to be accounted for to predict ecosystem productivity.     

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large‐scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient‐climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat‐dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod‐dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem‐based management context.     

Climate change–contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework

Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change‐associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change–contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change–contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat‐soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein‐binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change–contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision‐making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the ecological and socioeconomic risk of greenhouse gases and marine pollutants.     

Consistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change

The impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. Nonetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. Evidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels. Here we show that trophic amplification of marine biomass declines is a consistent feature of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Earth System Models, across different scenarios of future climate change. Under the business‐as‐usual Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) global mean phytoplankton biomass is projected to decline by 6.1% ± 2.5% over the twenty‐first century, while zooplankton biomass declines by 13.6% ± 3.0%. All models project greater relative declines in zooplankton than phytoplankton, with annual zooplankton biomass anomalies 2.24 ± 1.03 times those of phytoplankton. The low latitude oceans drive the projected trophic amplification of biomass declines, with models exhibiting variable trophic interactions in the mid‐to‐high latitudes and similar relative changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Under the assumption that zooplankton biomass is prey limited, an analytical explanation of the trophic amplification that occurs in the low latitudes can be derived from generic plankton differential equations. Using an ocean biogeochemical model, we show that the inclusion of variable C:N:P phytoplankton stoichiometry can substantially increase the trophic amplification of biomass declines in low latitude regions. This additional trophic amplification is driven by enhanced nutrient limitation decreasing phytoplankton N and P content relative to C, hence reducing zooplankton growth efficiency. Given that most current Earth System Models assume that phytoplankton C:N:P stoichiometry is constant, such models are likely to underestimate the extent of negative trophic amplification under projected climate change.     

Evolution mediates the effects of apex predation on aquatic food webs

Ecological and evolutionary mechanisms are increasingly thought to shape local community dynamics. Here, I evaluate if the local adaptation of a meso-predator to an apex predator alters local food webs. The marbled salamander (Ambystoma opacum) is an apex predator that consumes both the spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) and shared zooplankton prey. Common garden experiments reveal that spotted salamander populations which co-occur with marbled salamanders forage more intensely than those that face other predator species. These foraging differences, in turn, alter the diversity, abundance and composition of zooplankton communities in common garden experiments and natural ponds. Locally adapted spotted salamanders exacerbate prey biomass declines associated with apex predation, but dampen the top-down effects of apex predation on prey diversity. Countergradient selection on foraging explains why locally adapted spotted salamanders exacerbate prey biomass declines. The two salamander species prefer different prey species, which explains why adapted spotted salamanders buffer changes in prey composition owing to apex predation. Results suggest that local adaptation can strongly mediate effects from apex predation on local food webs. Community ecologists might often need to consider the evolutionary history of populations to understand local diversity patterns, food web dynamics, resource gradients and their responses to disturbance.     

中国海域海洋生物的营养级指数变化特征

利用联合国粮农组织(FAO)1950-2011年渔获物捕捞量资料, 分析了我国海域(包括大陆海域、台湾海域、香港海域和澳门海域)129种渔获物的营养级指数变化特征。研究表明, 1950-1974年我国海洋营养级指数在3.45左右波动, 1975-1978年下降至3.35左右, 1982-1987年急剧下降到3.25并维持到1996年, 1997-2011年平稳回升至3.34。与全球海洋营养级指数相比, 1984年之前我国高于全球水平, 而1984年之后则低于全球水平。就生物类群而言, 鱼类对我国海洋营养级指数的贡献最大, 达73.1-85.8%; 甲壳动物次之, 为9.2-15.5%; 软体动物较小, 为3.3-11.6%; 其他无脊椎动物的贡献最小, 不超过1.8%。过度捕捞使我国部分渔获物由原来的长寿命、高营养级的底层鱼类变为现在的短寿命、低营养级的无脊椎动物和中上层鱼类。渔业捕捞许可管理制度、禁渔期和禁渔区制度、海洋捕捞产量“零增长”和“负增长”计划、增殖放流、扩大海洋保护区面积等措施的实施可能是我国海洋营养级指数回升的主要原因。     

Climate change alters stability and species potential interactions in a large marine ecosystem

We have little empirical evidence of how large‐scale overlaps between large numbers of marine species may have altered in response to human impacts. Here, we synthesized all available distribution data (>1 million records) since 1992 for 61 species of the East Australian marine ecosystem, a global hot spot of ocean warming and continuing fisheries exploitation. Using a novel approach, we constructed networks of the annual changes in geographical overlaps between species. Using indices of changes in species overlap, we quantified changes in the ecosystem stability, species robustness, species sensitivity and structural keystone species. We then compared the species overlap indices with environmental and fisheries data to identify potential factors leading to the changes in distributional overlaps between species. We found that the structure of the ecosystem has changed with a decrease in asymmetrical geographical overlaps between species. This suggests that the ecosystem has become less stable and potentially more susceptible to environmental perturbations. Most species have shown a decrease in overlaps with other species. The greatest decrease in species overlap robustness and sensitivity to the loss of other species has occurred in the pelagic community. Some demersal species have become more robust and less sensitive. Pelagic structural keystone species, predominately the tunas and billfish, have been replaced by demersal fish species. The changes in species overlap were strongly correlated with regional oceanographic changes, in particular increasing ocean warming and the southward transport of warmer and saltier water with the East Australian Current, but less correlated with fisheries catch. Our study illustrates how large‐scale multispecies distribution changes can help identify structural changes in marine ecosystems associated with climate change.     

Benthic carbon is inefficiently transferred in the food webs of two eutrophic shallow lakes

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Climate change disrupts core habitats of marine species

Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of >33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO₂ emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.     

Spatial and body‐size dependent response of marine pelagic communities to projected global climate change

Temperature, oxygen, and food availability directly affect marine life. Climate models project a global warming of the ocean's surface (~+3 °C), a de‐oxygenation of the ocean's interior (~?3%) and a decrease in total marine net primary production (~?8%) under the ‘business as usual’ climate change scenario (RCP8.5). We estimated the effects of these changes on biological communities using a coupled biogeochemical (PISCES) – ecosystems (APECOSM) model forced by the physical outputs of the last generation of the IPSL‐CM Earth System Model. The APECOSM model is a size‐structured bio‐energetic model that simulates the 3D dynamical distributions of three interactive pelagic communities (epipelagic, mesopelagic, and migratory) under the effects of multiple environmental factors. The PISCES‐APECOSM model ran from 1850 to 2100 under historical forcing followed by RCP8.5. Our RCP8.5 simulation highlights significant changes in the spatial distribution, biomass, and maximum body‐size of the simulated pelagic communities. Biomass and maximum body‐size increase at high latitude over the course of the century, reflecting the capacity of marine organisms to respond to new suitable environment. At low‐ and midlatitude, biomass and maximum body‐size strongly decrease. In those regions, large organisms cannot maintain their high metabolic needs because of limited and declining food availability. This resource reduction enhances the competition and modifies the biomass distribution among and within the three communities: the proportion of small organisms increases in the three communities and the migrant community that initially comprised a higher proportion of small organisms is favored. The greater resilience of small body‐size organisms resides in their capacity to fulfill their metabolic needs under reduced energy supply and is further favored by the release of predation pressure due to the decline of large organisms. These results suggest that small body‐size organisms might be more resilient to climate change than large ones.     

The potential impacts of global climate change on marine protected areas

The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the literature on protected areas,conservation biology, marine ecology,oceanography, and climate change, and reviewssome of the relevant differences between marineand terrestrial environments. Frameworks andclassifications systems used in protected areadesign are discussed. Finally, a frameworkthat summarizes some of the importantoceanographic processes and their links to thefood chain are reviewed. Species abundance anddistribution are expected to change as a resultof global climate change, potentiallycompromising the efficacy of marine protectedareas as biodiversity conservation tools. Thisreview suggests the need for: furtherinterdisciplinary research and the use oflinked models; an increase in marine protectedareas for biodiversity conservation and asresearch sites for teasing apart fishingeffects from climate effects; a temporallyresponsive approach to siting new marineprotected areas, shifting their locations ifnecessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integratedmanagement approaches to address the competinguses of the oceans and boundary-less threatssuch as global climate change and pollution.     

全球变化对食物网结构影响机制的研究进展

食物网主要依靠基于不同营养级间物种互作形成的上行与下行调控维持其结构。全球变化能够改变种间关系, 威胁生物多样性的维持, 然而目前对全球变化改变食物网结构的机制仍处于探索阶段。近年来通过大时空格局与多营养级食物网研究, 发现全球变化的作用机制主要可归结为3种: 物候错配、关键种丧失与生物入侵。该文聚焦于这3种机制, 综述各种机制造成的食物网结构变化并探讨相关的进化与生态驱动因素。三种干扰机制均通过改变原有种间关系, 影响食物网调控, 改变食物网结构。不同的是, 物候错配造成的种间关系变化是由于不同物种的物候对全球变化产生非同步响应所致; 关键种丧失则使营养级间取食/捕食关系发生变化甚至缺失; 而入侵物种通过竞争排除同营养级物种改变种间关系。最后, 该文提出食物网结构变化的实质是物种是否能够适应快速变化的生态环境, 并据此展望未来研究方向。随着全球变化影响日益加剧, 急需继续深入探索导致全球变化下食物网结构改变的机制, 为制定合理的生物多样性保护与生态修复规划提供重要理论支撑。     

Effects of an invasive crayfish on trophic relationships in north‐temperate lake food webs

1. The introduction of invasive species is one of the main threats to global biodiversity, ecosystem structure and ecosystem processes. In freshwaters, invasive crayfish alter macroinvertebrate community structure and destroy macrophyte beds. There is limited knowledge on how such invasive species‐driven changes affect consumers at higher trophic levels. 2. In this study, we explore how the invasive rusty crayfish Orconectes rusticus, a benthic omnivore, affects benthic macroinvertebrates, as well as the broader consequences for ecosystem‐level trophic flows in terms of fish benthivory and trophic position (TP). We expected crayfish to decrease abundance of benthic macroinvertebrates, making most fish species less reliant on benthic resources. We expected crayfish specialists (e.g. Lepomis sp. and Micropterus sp.) to increase their benthic dependence. 3. In 10 northern Wisconsin lakes, we measured rusty crayfish relative abundance (catch per unit effort, CPUE), macroinvertebrate abundance, and C and N stable isotope ratios of 11 littoral fish species. We used stable isotope data and mixing models to characterise the trophic pathways supporting each fish species, and related trophic structure to crayfish relative abundance, fish body size and abiotic predictors using hierarchical Bayesian models. 4. Benthic invertebrate abundance was negatively correlated with rusty crayfish relative abundance. Fish benthivory increased with crayfish CPUE for all 11 fish species; posterior probabilities of a positive effect were >95%. TP also increased slightly with crayfish CPUE for some species, particularly smallmouth bass, largemouth bass, rock bass and Johnny darter. Moreover, both fish body size and lake abiotic variables explained variation in TP, while their effects on benthivory were small. 5. Rusty crayfish abundance explained relatively little of the overall variation in fish benthivory and TP. Although rusty crayfish appear to have strong effects on abundances of benthic macroinvertebrates, energy flow pathways and trophic niches of lentic fishes were not strongly influenced by invasive rusty crayfish.     

Assessing the trophic impacts of marine mammals: From metabolism to food web indices

Marine mammals are an important part of ecosystems, and their trophic role and potential impact have been increasingly studied. One key question is how these large animals interact with fisheries or compete for similar resources. Consequently, some models once used only for fisheries management are now including pinnipeds and cetaceans. However, fish and marine mammals do not share the same ecology and bioenergetics, and complex ecosystem models may not be the best way to assess the impact of pinnipeds or cetaceans in food webs. Indeed, simpler methods based on thermodynamics might give us reasonable answers with limited amounts of data. Here, we present an assessment of two different approaches to assess the trophic role of marine mammals in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (Canada): mixed trophic impacts (MTI) based on ecosystem modeling and surface index (SI) impact based on bioenergetics. Our results show that while modeling represents a good way of getting a holistic view of the role of marine mammals in ecosystems, trophic impact estimates based on fundamental thermodynamics principles can also give us answers requiring less data. The body surface area approach presented here might provide a practical tool for ecologists, who are not necessarily ecosystem modelers, to study this issue.     

Altered kelp (Laminariales) phlorotannins and growth under elevated carbon dioxide and ultraviolet-B treatments can influence associated intertidal food webs

Due to the importance of brown algae, such as kelp (Laminariales, Phaeophyta), within most cool nearshore environments, any direct responses of kelp to multiple global changes could alter the integrity of future coastal marine systems. Fifty-five-day manipulation of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and ultraviolet light (UVB) within outdoor sea-tanks, approximating past, present and two predicted future levels, examined the direct influences on Saccharina latissima (= Laminaria saccharina ) and Nereocystis luetkeana development and biochemistry, as well as the indirect influences on a marine herbivore ( Tegula funebralis ; Gastropoda, Mollusca) and on naturally occurring intertidal detritivores. Kelp species displayed variable directional (negative and positive growth) and scale responses to CO₂ and UVB manipulations, which was influenced by interactions. Kelp phlorotannin (phenolic) production in blade tissues was induced by elevated UVB levels, and especially enhanced (additively) by elevated CO₂, further suggesting that some actively growing kelp species are carbon limited in typical nearshore environments. Negative indirect effects upon detritivore consumers fed CO₂-manipulated kelp blade tissues were detected, however, no statistical relationships existed among UVB-treated tissues, and test herbivores did not distinguish between phlorotannin-altered CO₂: UVB-treated kelp blade tissues. Results suggest that past and future conditions differentially benefit these kelp species, which implies a potential for shifts in species abundance and community composition. Higher CO₂ conditions can indirectly impede marine decay processes delaying access to recycled trace nutrients, which may be disruptive to the seasonal regrowth of algae and/or higher trophic levels of nearshore ecosystems.